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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION FOR LONG TERM CAPITAL STRUCTURES, SYSTEMS, AND COMPONENTS REFURBISHMENT AND REPLACEMENT

As commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) pursue extended plant operations in the form of Second License Renewals (SLRs), opportunities exist for these plants to provide capital investments to ensure long-term, safe, and economic performance. Several utilities have already announced their intention to pursue extended operations for one or more of their NPPs via SLR2. The goal of this research is to develop a riskinformed approach to evaluate and prioritize plant capital investments made in preparation for, and during the period of, extended plant operations to support decisions in NPP operations. In order to prioritize project selection via a riskinformed approach we developed a single decision-making tool that integrates safety/reliability, cost, and stochastic optimization models to provide users with data analysis capabilities to more cost effectively manage plant assets. Both stochastic analysis methods—such as Monte Carlo-based sampling strategies—and multi-stage stochastic optimization strategies are employed to provide priority lists to decisionmakers in support of risk-informed decisions. We applied the proposed method to a trial application of projected replacement/refurbishment expenditures for plant capital assets (i.e., Structures, Systems, and Components [SSCs]). The objective is to optimize the SSC replacement/refurbishment schedule in terms of economic constraints, data uncertainties, and SSC reliability data, as well to generate a priority list for maximizing returns on investment.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertain Spatial Pattern of Future Land Use and Land Cover Change and Its Impacts on Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Over the Arctic–Boreal Region of North America

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) represents a key process of human-Earth system interaction and has profound impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling. As a key input for ecosystem models, future gridded LULCC data is typically spatially downscaled from regional LULCC projections by integrated assessment models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). The uncertainty associated with the different spatial downscaling methods and its impacts on the subsequent model projections have been historically ignored and rarely examined. This study investigated this problem using two representative spatial downscaling methods and focused on their impacts on the carbon cycle over the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) domain, where extensive LULCC is expected. Specifically, we used the Future Land Use Simulation model (FLUS) and the Demeter model to generate 0.25° gridded LULCC data (i.e., LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , respectively) with the same input of regional LULCC projections from GCAM, under both the low (i.e., SSP126) and high (i.e., SSP585) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The two sets of downscaled LULCC were used to drive the Community Land Model version 5 and prognostically simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics over the 21st century. The results suggest large spatial-temporal differences between LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , and the spatial distributions of the needleleaf evergreen boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub, and C3 arctic grass are particularly different under both SSP126 and SSP585. Additionally, the spatiotemporal differences are larger under SSP126 than SSP585, due to more intensive LULCC under SSP126 than SSP585 from GCAM projection. The differences in LULCC further lead to large discrepancies in the spatial patterns of projected gross primary productivity, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem exchange, which represent more than 79% of the contributions of future LULCC in 2100. Additionally, the difference in carbon flux under SSP126 is generally larger than those under SSP585. This study highlights the importance of considering the uncertainties induced by the spatial downscaling process in future LULCC projections and carbon cycle simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust In-Situ Strain Measurements to Monitor CO 2 Storage

The goal of this project was to develop and demonstrate robust instrumentation to monitor the in-situ strain tensor in order to improve the reliability and security of CO 2 storage in geologic formations. We met the original goals of the project and the major overarching accomplishment is the advancement of strain tensor monitoring from an intriguing concept to a commercially available technology with a solid foundation of novel instruments supported by theoretical analyses and validation experiments. The main accomplishments of the project are summarized below. We designed, built and evaluated nine new optical fiber strainmeters and tiltmeters using Michelson interferometers to measure deformation with ultra-high resolution at both shallow and deep point locations in the subsurface. These are the robust strainmeters that motivated the title of the project. We designed, built and evaluated a novel method of measuring distributed strain in optical fibers with nanostrain resolution, and cm-scale location, and sampling into the seismic band. The new method is called Coherence-length-gated Microwave Photonics Interfereometry (CMPI). CMPI technology has advantages over existing commercial DAS and DSS methods. We developed and demonstrated capabilities to deploy instruments in the field and used them to measure strain caused by ambient signals like barometric pressure and tides, as well as induced signals like surface loading and pore pressure changes from pumping tests. We deployed a working strainmeter at 1,700 ft depth, slightly above an active reservoir. This is to our knowledge the greatest depth a strainmeter has been deployed and the techniques we used can readily be extended to greater depths. Optical fiber borehole tensor strainmeter techology was advanced from a TRL 4 at the start, to a TRL of 7 at the conclusion of the project. The project included advances in simulations and theoretical analyses. We developed and demonstrated a computational workflow that uses machine learning to reduce the computational requirements and make it practical to use Bayesian inversion to solve large numerical poroelastic analyses needed to interpret strain tensor field data. We evaluated the strain tensor fields and time series that would be caused by leaks of CO 2 or other fluids from reservoirs. These simulations demonstrated that signals from leaks could be measured with instruments developed for the project, opening a potentially new method for ensuring storage security. We showed that strains in caprock can be used to estimate pressure in a reservoir. This avoids the need to drill monitoring wells into the reservoir, and it expands the capabilities of monitoring in the caprock. The project includes a derivation and application of a novel analytical solution to the strains in the vicinity of a pressurized poroelastic inclusion. This solution explains field data measured during injeciton tests at the North Avant Field, and it will simplify future interpretation of strain tensor data. The project included a broad range of experiments, and of the most significant is the characterization of the strain tensor at an array three strainmeters during six injection tests at the North Avant Field, Oklahoma. This demonstrated repeatability of the strain signal measured by the new instruments developed for the project, and it showed similarities between the strain signal at shallow depths and pressure in the underlying reservoir. We also demonstrated that useful strain data can be measured at reservoir depths. This confirms that strain tensor data can be measured throughout the caprock over a reservoir. The project demonstrated the feasibility of using the strain tensor and distributed strain measured in caprock during a variety of different well tests where the pumping rate was constant, sinusoidal and positive, or a periodic square wave with zero net rate. This further strengthens the validity of using strain data to characterize reservoirs and aquifers. We also demonstrated that strain caused be fluctuations of air pressure and water pressure in the vadose zone can be measured and interpreted, suggesting that high resolution distributed strain measurements hold promise for monitoring the vadose zone. The project partially supported nine graduate students in the Environmental Engineering, Hydrogeology, Electrical Engineering programs at Clemson University. The research was described in nine journal papers, 23 talks and conference abstracts. Additional journal papers are in preparation. A new company called Tensora was started to provide strainmeter technology for commercial applications.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Multistage Stochastic Transmission Expansion Algorithm for Wide-Area Planning under Uncertainty

The overall objective for this project was to develop and demonstrate a set of methods for solving the transmission investment problem for a large network considering many possible scenarios of future conditions and multiple decision points when investments can be made. Project sub-objectives achieved this goal through a succession of extending the methods to apply to problems with increasing complexity or additional features, including the number of decision points, whether generation and transmission are co-optimized, and whether AC or DC power flow is used. A transmission model was developed for the Western Electric Coordinating Council (WECC) region, the high-voltage transmission system that serves the western third of the continental U.S. Using a dataset provided by WECC and by researchers from John Hopkins University, we have validated and demonstrated the model and used it to compare the new method for solving multi-stage stochastic transmission planning to several state-of-the-art techniques. The project has resulted in several key outcomes and achievements: The covariance-based method for choosing a small set of hours to represent short-term variability has superior performance in terms of accuracy to existing methods, including K-means clustering and Importance Sampling; The combined partitioning method for long-term uncertainty with the nested clustering approach for choosing representative hours for each long-term group has superior accuracy for equivalent computational effort compared with existing methods; Using the partitioning/clustering method combined with Sample Average Approximation provides both statistical bounds on the quality of the solution and at the same time, a complete investment plan for all contingencies in the full uncertainty set; no existing methods can provide both at the same time; The method is demonstrated to work well for choosing both transmission and generation investments; A variant on the method allows for both scenario selection and simultaneous correction for the error from the DC power flow approximation to provide a tractable method for AC power flow-based transmission planning under uncertainty; The method applied to the WECC case study demonstrates the additional value to the system operator and the consumer of identifying flexible investment options in the near-term decisions. In particular, the case study exhibits significant option value in postponing some transmission additions that appear useful but in some long-term system states create new congestion problems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Analytical Development & Support WBS 2.5.1.101

The objective of the Analytical Development and Support (ADS) Project is to produce and maintain the critical analytical methods and tools that enable evaluation of emerging biofuels R&D at NREL and in the broader biofuels research community. Our project is divided into two tasks: one task to develop novel analytical techniques and improve existing methods and one task to maintain existing analytical capabilities at NREL and provide outreach to the wider community. The ADS Project is world-recognized for our Laboratory Analytical Procedures (LAPS) which provide detailed procedures for compositional analysis of biomass and have been adopted as the de facto standards within the biofuels community largely due to the transparency of the methods and the high reputation of NREL's research. Our dialog with stakeholders allows us to provide robust, precise, accurate, and publicly available analytical procedures for better valuation of scientific tools such as our recent accomplishment in developing a cellulose assay to support the EPA and industry in calculation of converted cellulose during starch ethanol production. We continue to develop analytical capabilities to support BETO's directives to research cost advantaged fuels such as animal wastes and novel bioproducts like 2,3-Butane-diol.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

AGP-based unitary coupled cluster theory for quantum computers

Electronic structure methods typically benefit from symmetry breaking and restoration, specially in the strong correlation regime. Here, the same goes for ansätze on a quantum computer. We develop a unitary coupled cluster method based on the antisymmetrized geminal power (AGP)—a state formally equivalent to the number-projected Bardeen–Cooper–Schrieffer wavefunction. We demonstrate our method for the single-band Fermi–Hubbard Hamiltonian in one and two dimensions. We also explore post-selection as a state preparation step to obtain correlated AGP and prove that it scales no worse than O(√M) in the number of measurements, thereby making it a less expensive alternative to gauge integration to restore particle number symmetry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating Formal Methods Tools and their Applicability for Hardware Vulnerability Remediation

Formal methods use mathematical logic and equations to prove that a system or code is secure. In this poster, I examine existing formal methods tools and their application for projects working to remediate vulnerabilities in hardware and hardware description language. This poster is focused on the tools ReWire and AutoGenILA and I hope to evaluate their benefits and weaknesses with the intention of creating an internal report on the application and weaknesses of existing formal methods tools and identifying gaps for future formal methods tool creation.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ultrasonic Measurements of Temperature Profile and Heat Fluxes in Coal-Fired Power Plants (Final Report)

Many industrial processes are inaccessible or inhospitable to characterization by traditional temperature measurement methods, such as thermocouples, especially over prolonged exposure to harsh environments. Ultrasound is an established characterization technology with diverse applications ranging from medical imaging to therapies to flaw detection to nondestructive evaluation. Ultrasound may characterize solid materials and components noninvasively as a nondestructive evaluation modality and obtain internal measurements of material properties. For example, the speed of ultrasound propagation changes with Young’s modulus and Poisson’s ratio, which can be found from its measurements. Traditional ultrasonic characterization assumes all material properties remain constant with the position. When this assumption holds, a property of interest may be measured by relating it to the speed of ultrasound propagation (or a speed of sound, SOS) and measuring the SOS by timing the ultrasound propagation through a known distance. However, when a property of interest is spatially distributed, the propagation time depends on the SOS changing with the position along the ultrasound propagation path. The multiple temperature distributions may lead to an identical time of flight (TOF). Temperature is one property that impacts the speed of ultrasound and often cannot be assumed to remain constant with the position. Previously, in the context of temperature, we addressed the challenge of ultrasonic characterization of spatially distributed properties by developing a method for measuring segmental temperature distributions (MSTD). This method divides the ultrasonic propagation into segments bound by echogenic features. These features provide ultrasonic interfaces where some energy is reflected toward the receiving transducer, and the rest continues through the medium. The time-of-flight between the echoes reflected from echogenic features characterizes the spatial distribution in the properties of interest in the corresponding segment of the ultrasonic propagation path. This project demonstrated the application of the MSTD method in industrial conditions of the coal-fired power plant. We implemented the MSTD using metals and alloys waveguides, which may be the existing structure for which the temperature distribution is characterized or purposefully designed waveguides added to the structure by welding or other means specifically to quantify thermal properties using the MSTD method. Previous iterations of the MSTD method used ceramic and cementitious waveguides, which significantly attenuate ultrasound. On the other hand, low attenuation in metallic waveguides creates interactions between echogenic features which compilates the signal analysis in the segmental TOF measurements. We have established the WG design principles that minimize the interferences between trailing and primary echoes and, in some cases, eliminate them. The waveguides in which echoes do not interfere improve the timing accuracy and the robustness of ultrasonic measurements of the spatial distributions in material properties. Our emphasis remained on the estimation of the temperature distributions. We have developed general recommendations for designing ultrasonically segmented waveguides with the reduced influence of trailing echoes. Two of our waveguide designs were tested in the industry. The first waveguide was designed for insertion into a combustion zone of the utility-scale coal-fired power plant boiler. The second design allows the characterization of temperature distribution in the direction normal to the boiler’s water wall, a large heat exchanger converting the chemical energy released during combustion to the steam driving the electrical power generation turbines. These waveguides were designed to operate within a restrictive space of thermally insulated water wall and incorporate densely located echogenic features while combatting the influence of trailing echoes. The project has successfully demonstrated the feasibility of using the developed method for accurate, continuous, and robust temperature measurements in extreme environments of power generation and other industrial processes. It, therefore, has achieved its overarching goal of advancing the technology readiness level of the novel Ultrasound Measurements of Segmental Temperature Distribution (US-MSTD) method for real-time measurements of the temperature distribution and heat fluxes closer to commercial availability, developing a prototype multipoint measurement system, and validating its performance on coal-fired utility boilers. The success of this project was achieved in collaboration with the power generator, Rocky Mountain Power, and set the stage for the transfer of this technology from the laboratory to the industry.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2020

Collaborative Research: Polymer Macrocycles: A novel topology to control dynamics of rubbery materials

Understanding the dynamics of polymers of different topologies is an important field of study and one of the most important unanswered questions in this field is "how do circular polymers move," particularly in the melt state. New information suggests that molecular topology, specifically circular rings, impacts the response of materials in nanometer- scale confinement. The work performed here tackles these subjects through a collaboration in which specialists in polymer synthesis, polymer rheology and scattering methods, and in the physics of nanoconfinement work together to investigate the thermophysical behavior of circular macromolecules. The project goals are to use a novel synthesis method of "green" oxidative polymerization to produce high purity macrocycles and to investigate their linear viscoelastic behavior in order to fully characterize the dynamics of circular macromolecules to sizes that correspond to linear molecule entanglement densities higher than previously obtainable with synthetic polymers. Chemical chain end characterization and critical edge fractionation coupled with direct visualization of the prepared polymers through the use of polymer amplification methods are proposed in order to quantify the numbers of circular and linear molecules in each sample. The study of the linear viscoelastic response of blends of linear and circular molecules is also to be undertaken in the project. Nonlinear viscoelastic measurements, including extensional viscosity, are to be made. Strong differences in behavior between linear chains and circular ones also provides an important opportunity for new technology to break the "magic triangle" for tires: it is believed that improving one of the three key attributes - traction, wear, rolling resistance - necessarily sacrifices at least one of the others. Rubber made from cyclic polymers has the potential to break out of this triangle by reducing the so-called Payne effect in reinforced rubbers because circular macromolecules are less sensitive to nanoconfinement than their linear counterparts. The work has as one objective to characterize the impact of nanoconfinement on the behavior of large circular macromolecules. In addition, the dynamics of carbon black filled circular macromolecules are to be studied to test the hypothesis that the resulting rubbery materials will exhibit a reduced Payne effect.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development and Field Testing Novel Natural Gas Surface Process Equipment for Replacement of Water as Primary Hydraulic Fracturing Fluid (Final Report)

Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI ® ), Schlumberger Technology Corporation (SLB), and Chevron Corporation ® (Chevron) developed a novel, optimized, and lightweight process for natural gas (NG) to replace water as a low-cost fracturing medium with a low environmental impact. Hydraulic fracturing is used to increase oil and NG production by injecting high-pressure fluid, primarily water, into a rock formation, which fractures the rock and releases trapped oil and NG. This method was developed to increase yield and make feasible production areas that would not otherwise be viable for large-scale oil and NG extraction using traditional drilling technologies. Since the fracturing fluid is composed of approximately 90% water, one of the principal drawbacks to hydraulic fracturing is its excessive water use and associated large environmental footprint. According to recent data collected at fracture sites within the United States, fracturing applications in North America can consume as much as 9 million gallons of water per well. During the fracturing process, some of the fracturing fluid is permanently lost and the portion that is recovered is contaminated by both fracturing chemicals and dissolved solids from the formation. The recovered water or flow-back represents a significant environmental challenge, as it must be treated before it can be reintroduced into the natural water system. Although there is some recycling for future fracturing, the majority of the flow-back water is hauled from the well site to a treatment facility or to an injection well for permanent underground disposal. To mitigate these issues, an optimized, lightweight and modular surface process using NG to replace a majority of the water was developed as a cost-effective and environmentally clean fracturing fluid. Using NG will result in significantly less consumption since the gas that is injected as a fracturing fluid will be mixed with the formation gas and extracted as if it were from the formation itself. This process will minimize the collection, waste, and treatment of large amounts of water and will reduce the environmental impact of transporting and storing the fracturing fluid. There are two major steps involved in utilizing NG as the primary fracturing medium: (1) increasing the supply pressure of NG to wellhead pressures suitable for fracturing and (2) mixing the required chemicals and proppant needed for the fracturing process at these elevated pressures. The second step (NG-proppant mixing at elevated pressures) still requires demonstration; but very similar processes have been demonstrated in the field with other gases such as nitrogen (N 2 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). However, the first step (a compact, on-site unit for generating high-pressure NG at costs feasible for fracturing) has not been developed and is currently not commercially available. Due to the inherent compressibility of NG, more energy is required to compress the gas than what is required to pump water (or other incompressible liquids) to the very high pressure required for downhole injection. This project aimed to develop a novel, hybrid method to overcome this challenge. The project accomplishments and findings are discussed in this report. Ultimately, the research and development efforts described herein demonstrate that fracturing with NG foam is a feasible alternative to using water.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid Al Casting + AM Components for Automotive Applications

Although casting Aluminum (Al) alloys is widely used for automotive application, the conventional casting process is showing limitations for modern vehicle production. A hybrid manufacturing method that is capable of fabricating automotive structures with tailored functionality and tuned attributes at a high production rate is proposed in this project, utilizing the merits of conventional casting methods and additive manufacturing (AM) methods. Ford is interested in supplementing conventional casting processes (e.g., shape casting, high pressure die casting) with local modifications to geometry and microstructure using additive manufacturing techniques. Two additive manufacturing methods, wire-arc and laser hot-wire directed energy deposition AM process, were evaluated by deposition of 4043 filler wire onto high-pressure die cast and permanent mold cast Al-Si alloys. The feasibility of this hybrid manufacturing method was determined through trial deposition and evaluation of defects, microstructure, and mechanical properties. Laser hot-wire deposition was found to be beneficial for this application with low porosity, a refined microstructure, and mechanical properties similar to those reported in the literature for 4043. The mechanical properties of the interface between the A356 casting and deposited 4043 were found to be controlled by the weaker deposit material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Algorithms and file structures to enhance software workflows for ion mobility mass spectrometry (IM-MS): CRADA 410 (Final Report)

This document is the final report for CRADA 410 (Project No. 72496). The purpose of this project was supporting customizations of algorithms and raw data file structures to enhance software workflows for liquid chromatography (LC), mass spectrometry (MS) and ion mobility mass spectrometry (IM-MS)-based metabolite characterization. PNNL worked with Agilent to evaluate and improve the integration of ion mobility into existing MS data analysis methods of Agilent software tools. The project augmented PNNL’s capabilities to analyze complex omics samples. These capabilities are directly beneficial to DOE and PNNL efforts to characterize and analyze compounds in microbial and plant communities. The project assisted Agilent in further developing improved instrument-software solutions combining ion mobility with mass spectrometry for widespread applications in life sciences and other fields.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Core Mass Estimates in Strong Lensing Galaxy Clusters Using a Single-halo Lens Model

The core mass of galaxy clusters is an important probe of structure formation. Here we evaluate the use of a single-halo model (SHM) as an efficient method to estimate the strong lensing cluster core mass, testing it with ray-traced images from the Outer Rim simulation. Unlike detailed lens models, the SHM represents the cluster mass distribution with a single halo and can be automatically generated from the measured lensing constraints. In this work we find that the projected core mass estimated with this method, $M_{\text{SHM}}$, has a scatter of 8.52% and a bias of 0.90% compared to the "true" mass within the same aperture. Our analysis shows no systematic correlation between the scatter or bias and the lens-source system properties. The bias and scatter can be reduced to 3.26% and 0.34%, respectively, by excluding models that fail a visual inspection test. We find that the SHM success depends on the lensing geometry, with single giant arc configurations accounting for most of the failed cases due to their limiting constraining power. When excluding such cases, we measure a scatter and bias of 3.88% and 0.84%, respectively. Finally, we find that when the source redshift is unknown, the model-predicted redshifts are overestimated, and the $M_{\text{SHM}}$ is underestimated by a few percent, highlighting the importance of securing spectroscopic redshifts of background sources. Our analysis provides a quantitative characterization of $M_{\text{SHM}}$, enabling its efficient use as a tool to estimate the strong lensing cluster core masses in the large samples, expected from current and future surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate-driven deterioration of future ozone pollution in Asia predicted by machine learning with multi-source data

Ozone (O 3 ) is a secondary pollutant in the atmosphere formed by photochemical reactions that endangers human health and ecosystems. O 3 has aggravated in Asia in recent decades and will vary in the future. In this study, to quantify the impacts of future climate change on O 3 pollution, near-surface O 3 concentrations over Asia in 2020–2100 are projected using a machine learning (ML) method along with multi-source data. The ML model is trained with combined O 3 data from a global atmospheric chemical transport model and real-time observations. The ML model is then used to estimate future O 3 with meteorological fields from multi-model simulations under various climate scenarios. The near-surface O 3 concentrations are projected to increase by 5 %–20 % over South China, Southeast Asia, and South India and less than 10 % over North China and the Gangetic Plains under the high-forcing scenarios in the last decade of 21st century, compared to the first decade of 2020–2100. The O 3 increases are primarily owing to the favorable meteorological conditions for O 3 photochemical formation in most Asian regions. We also find that the summertime O 3 pollution over eastern China will expand from North China to South China and extend into the cold season in a warmer future. Our results demonstrate the important role of a climate change penalty on Asian O 3 in the future, which provides implications for environmental and climate strategies of adaptation and mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data Quality of Salt Property Measurements

Data quality is a key element to assessing technical uncertainties in property values of salt mixtures that are pivotal in molten salt reactor (MSR) design and safety assessments under both normal operating conditions and accident scenarios. Key properties for the salt mixtures being evaluated for use in MSRs have not been measured and the few values for relevant salt compositions available in the literature are inconsistent and not suitable for use in licensing. The applications of established techniques commonly used for property measurements to molten salts are still experimental in nature and vetted consensus standards are not yet available. Work is in progress to develop and standardize methods through DOE and commercially funded projects. The quality of measured property values limits the current ability to reliably design equipment and model normal MSR operation and the effects of operational upsets. Insights from experimental measurements pertinent to reducing technical uncertainty for regulatory development are summarized in this report. Quality controls are recommended for key properties based on the mathematical calculations used to derive property values and methods used to measure experimental values and salt produced for use in the measurements.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Perturbative Quantum Monte Carlo Method for Nuclear Physics

While first order perturbation theory is routinely used in quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) calculations, higher-order terms present significant numerical challenges. We present a new approach for computing perturbative corrections in projection QMC calculations. Here we demonstrate the method by computing nuclear ground state energies up to second order for a realistic chiral interaction. We calculate the binding energies of several light nuclei up to 16 O by expanding the Hamiltonian around the Wigner SU(4) limit and find good agreement with data. In contrast to the natural ordering of the perturbative series, we find remarkably large second-order energy corrections. This occurs because the perturbing interactions break the symmetries of the unperturbed Hamiltonian. Our method is free from the sign problem and can be applied to QMC calculations for many-body systems in nuclear physics, condensed matter physics, ultracold atoms, and quantum chemistry.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hospice Landscape Report

In July 2018, CMS requested assistance from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to provide expert data science support aimed at developing algorithms for data mining of medical data for operational and payment purposes. The project is intended to be exploratory: work is aimed at alleviating challenges associated with improper payments, specifically audit methodologies and targeting and changes to risk scores. Project goals include developing new, sophisticated methods for audit targeting and improved profile– payment error correlations, specifically focused on Medicare Part C, the program under which MAOs provide health care services to beneficiaries. ORNL conducted RADV analyses against RAPS and EDS data as well as a hospice landscape analysis per a January 2015 dataset that included Medicare beneficiaries who were in hospice in 2017 and 2018. Ongoing work under this project also involves development of predictive models for RADV investigations and hospice landscape.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing sensitivities of climate model weighting to multiple methods, variables, and domains in the south-central United States

Given the increasing use of climate projections and multi-model ensemble weighting for a diverse array of applications, this project assesses the sensitivities of climate model weighting strategies and their resulting ensemble means to multiple components, such as the weighting schemes, climate variables, or spatial domains of interest. The purpose of this study is to assess the sensitivities associated with multi-model weighting strategies. The analysis makes use of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and their statistically downscaled counterparts created with the localized constructed analogs (LOCA) method. This work focuses on historical and projected future mean precipitation and daily high temperatures of the south-central United States. Results suggest that the model weights and the corresponding weighted model means can be sensitive to the weighting strategy that is applied. For instance, when estimating model weights based on Louisiana precipitation, the weighted projections show a wetter and cooler south-central domain in the future compared to other weighting strategies. Alternatively, for example, when estimating model weights based on New Mexico temperature, the weighted projections show a drier and warmer south-central domain in the future. However, when considering the entire south-central domain in estimating the model weights, the weighted future projections show a compromise in the precipitation and temperature estimates. As for uncertainty, our matrix of results provided a more certain picture of future climate compared to the spread in the original model ensemble. If future impact assessments utilize weighting strategies, then our findings suggest that how the specific weighting strategy is used with climate projections may depend on the needs of an impact assessment or adaptation plan.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗