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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Development and Use of Engineering Standards for Computational Fluid Dynamics for Complex Aerospace Systems

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and other advanced modeling and simulation (M&S) methods are increasingly relied on for predictive performance, reliability and safety of engineering systems. Analysts, designers, decision makers, and project managers, who must depend on simulation, need practical techniques and methods for assessing simulation credibility. The AIAA Guide for Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations (AIAA G-077-1998 (2002)), originally published in 1998, was the first engineering standards document available to the engineering community for verification and validation (V&V) of simulations. Much progress has been made in these areas since 1998. The AIAA Committee on Standards for CFD is currently updating this Guide to incorporate in it the important developments that have taken place in V&V concepts, methods, and practices, particularly with regard to the broader context of predictive capability and uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods and approaches. This paper will provide an overview of the changes and extensions currently underway to update the AIAA Guide. Specifically, a framework for predictive capability will be described for incorporating a wide range of error and uncertainty sources identified during the modeling, verification, and validation processes, with the goal of estimating the total prediction uncertainty of the simulation. The Guide's goal is to provide a foundation for understanding and addressing major issues and concepts in predictive CFD. However, this Guide will not recommend specific approaches in these areas as the field is rapidly evolving. It is hoped that the guidelines provided in this paper, and explained in more detail in the Guide, will aid in the research, development, and use of CFD in engineering decision-making.

Lee, Hyung B.↗
NASA NTRS2019

How Well Does NASA GEOS Model Perform in Simulating Dust Deposition into the Tropical Atlantic Ocean?

Massive dust emitted from North Africa can transport long distances across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, reaching the Americas. Dust deposition along the transit adds microorganisms and essential nutrients to marine ecosystem, which has important implications for biogeochemical cycle and climate. However, assessing the dust-ecosystemclimate interactions has been hindered in part by the paucity of dust deposition measurements and large uncertainties associated with oversimplified representations of dust processes in current models. We have recently produced a unique dataset of seasonal dust deposition flux and dust loss frequency into the tropical Atlantic Ocean at a nominal resolution of 200 km x 500 km by using the decade-long (2007-2016) record of aerosol three-dimensional distribution from four satellite sensors, namely CALIOP, MODIS, MISR, and IASI. On the basis of the ten-year average, the yearly dust deposition into the tropical Atlantic Ocean is estimated at 98-153 Tg. The dust deposition shows large spatial and temporal (on seasonal and interannual scale) variability. The satellite observations also yield an estimate of annual mean dust loss frequency of 0.052 ~ 0.078 d-1, a useful diagnostic that makes it possible to disentangle the dust transport and removal processes from the dust emissions when identifying the major factors contributing to the uncertainties and biases in the model simulated dust deposition. In this study, we use the dataset along with in situ and remote sensing observations to assess how well NASA GEOS model performs in simulating trans-Atlantic dust transport and deposition. We found that the GEOS modeling of dust deposition falls within the range of satellite-based estimates. However, this reasonable agreement in dust deposition is a compensation of the model's underestimate of dust emissions and overestimate of dust removal efficiency. Further, the overestimate of dust removal efficiency results largely from the model's overestimate of rainfall rate. Our results provide insights into the model's deficiencies at process level, which could better guide model improvements.

Yu, Hongbin↗
NASA NTRS2006

Probabilistic Structural Evaluation of Uncertainties in Radiator Sandwich Panel Design

The Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter (JIMO) Space System is part of the NASA's Prometheus Program. As part of the JIMO engineering team at NASA Glenn Research Center, the structural design of the JIMO Heat Rejection Subsystem (HRS) is evaluated. An initial goal of this study was to perform sensitivity analyses to determine the relative importance of the input variables on the structural responses of the radiator panel. The desire was to let the sensitivity analysis information identify the important parameters. The probabilistic analysis methods illustrated here support this objective. The probabilistic structural performance evaluation of a HRS radiator sandwich panel was performed. The radiator panel structural performance was assessed in the presence of uncertainties in the loading, fabrication process variables, and material properties. The stress and displacement contours of the deterministic structural analysis at mean probability was performed and results presented. It is followed by a probabilistic evaluation to determine the effect of the primitive variables on the radiator panel structural performance. Based on uncertainties in material properties, structural geometry and loading, the results of the displacement and stress analysis are used as an input file for the probabilistic analysis of the panel. The sensitivity of the structural responses, such as maximum displacement and maximum tensile and compressive stresses of the facesheet in x and y directions and maximum VonMises stresses of the tube, to the loading and design variables is determined under the boundary condition where all edges of the radiator panel are pinned. Based on this study, design critical material and geometric parameters of the considered sandwich panel are identified.

Kuguoglu, Latife↗
NASA NTRS2002

System Level Uncertainty Assessment for Collaborative RLV Design

A collaborative design process utilizing Probabilistic Data Assessment (PDA) is showcased. Given the limitation of financial resources by both the government and industry, strategic decision makers need more than just traditional point designs, they need to be aware of the likelihood of these future designs to meet their objectives. This uncertainty, an ever-present character in the design process, can be embraced through a probabilistic design environment. A conceptual design process is presented that encapsulates the major engineering disciplines for a Third Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV). Toolsets consist of aerospace industry standard tools in disciplines such as trajectory, propulsion, mass properties, cost, operations, safety, and economics. Variations of the design process are presented that use different fidelities of tools. The disciplinary engineering models are used in a collaborative engineering framework utilizing Phoenix Integration's ModelCenter and AnalysisServer environment. These tools allow the designer to join disparate models and simulations together in a unified environment wherein each discipline can interact with any other discipline. The design process also uses probabilistic methods to generate the system level output metrics of interest for a RLV conceptual design. The specific system being examined is the Advanced Concept Rocket Engine 92 (ACRE-92) RLV. Previous experience and knowledge (in terms of input uncertainty distributions from experts and modeling and simulation codes) can be coupled with Monte Carlo processes to best predict the chances of program success.

Charania, A. C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining Cross Section and Beam Systematics for Future NOvA Sterile Neutrino Search

he NOvA (NuMI Off-axis $\nu_e$ Appearance) experiment measures neutrino oscillations in a nearly pure muon (anti)neutrino beam over a 810 km baseline. We search for sterile neutrino driven oscillations in both neutral current (NC) and charged current (CC) muon neutrino samples. A deficit of NC interactions at the Far Detector could occur since sterile neutrinos do not couple to the Z boson. A modulation of the muon neutrino disappearance probability is possible due to a new mass splitting. The NuMI beam line is capable of running in forward or reverse horn current modes, which creates a neutrino or antineutrino beam, respectively. Samples collected in forward horn current (FHC) or reverse horn current (RHC) modes are subject to beam optics uncertainties, in addition to cross section and hadron production uncertainties. We explore the ategories. To tackle reduction of cross section uncertainties, we study how splitting the neutral current (NC) samples can impact the systematic reduction and its implications on oscillation parameters, leveraging results from Monte Carlo simulations. Additionally, we look at the possibility of using a $\nu$-on-e scattering sample. The $\nu$-on-e scattering process has minimal cross section uncertainties compared to that of neutrino-nucleus interactions, which can help constrain the overall flux normalizations. Using both the ZHC sample, NC split sample, and $\nu$-on-e scattering sample jointly with FHC samples would reduce the focusing uncertainties and the hadron production uncertainties in the future sterile analysis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive Data-Driven Deep-Learning Surrogate Model for Frontal Polymerization in Dicyclopentadiene

Frontal polymerization (FP) is a self-sustaining curing process that enables rapid and energy-efficient manufacturing of thermoset polymers and composites. Computational methods conventionally used to simulate the FP process are time-consuming, and repeating simulations are required for sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, or optimization of the manufacturing process. Here, in this work, we develop an adaptive surrogate deep-learning model for FP of dicyclopentadiene (DCPD), which predicts the evolution of temperature and degree of cure orders of magnitude faster than the finite-element method (FEM). The adaptive algorithm provides a strategy to select training samples efficiently and save computational costs by reducing the redundancy of FEM-based training samples. The adaptive algorithm calculates the residual error of the FP governing equations using automatic differentiation of the deep neural network. A probability density function expressed in terms of the residual error is used to select training samples from the Sobol sequence space. The temperature and degree of cure evolution of each training sample are obtained by a 2D FEM simulation. The adaptive method is more efficient and has a better prediction accuracy than the random sampling method. With the well-trained surrogate neural network, the FP characteristics (front speed, shape, and temperature) can be extracted quickly from the predicted temperature and degree-of-cure fields.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2017

Very High Resolution Tree Cover Mapping for Continental United States using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks

Uncertainties in input land cover estimates contribute to a significant bias in modeled above ground biomass (AGB) and carbon estimates from satellite-derived data. The resolution of most currently used passive remote sensing products is not sufficient to capture tree canopy cover of less than ca. 10-20 percent, limiting their utility to estimate canopy cover and AGB for trees outside of forest land. In our study, we created a first of its kind Continental United States (CONUS) tree cover map at a spatial resolution of 1-m for the 2010-2012 epoch using the USDA NAIP imagery to address the present uncertainties in AGB estimates. The process involves different tasks including data acquisition ingestion to pre-processing and running a state-of-art encoder-decoder based deep convolutional neural network (CNN) algorithm for automatically generating a tree non-tree map for almost a quarter million scenes. The entire processing chain including generation of the largest open source existing aerial satellite image training database was performed at the NEX supercomputing and storage facility. We believe the resulting forest cover product will substantially contribute to filling the gaps in ongoing carbon and ecological monitoring research and help quantifying the errors and uncertainties in derived products.

High Resolution↗
NASA NTRS1995

Ulysses orbit determination at high declinations

The trajectory of the Ulysses spacecraft caused its geocentric declination to exceed 60 deg South for over two months during the Fall of 1994, permitting continuous tracking from a single site. During this time, spacecraft operations constraints allowed only Doppler tracking data to be collected, and imposed a high radial acceleration uncertainty on the orbit determination process. The unusual aspects of this situation have motivated a re-examination of the Hamilton-Melbourne results, which have been used before to estimate the information content of Doppler tracking for trajectories closer to the ecliptic. The addition of an acceleration term to this equation is found to significantly increase the declination uncertainty for symmetric passes. In addition, a simple means is described to transform the symmetric results when the tracking pass is non-symmetric. The analytical results are then compared against numerical studies of this tracking geometry and found to be in good agreement for the angular uncertainties. The results of this analysis are applicable to the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) mission and to any other missions with high declination trajectories, as well as to missions using short tracking passes and/or one-way Doppler data.

Mcelrath, Timothy P.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust error calibration for serial crystallography

Serial crystallography is an important technique with unique abilities to resolve enzymatic transition states, minimize radiation damage to sensitive metalloenzymes and perform de novo structure determination from micrometre-sized crystals. This technique requires the merging of data from thousands of crystals, making manual identification of errant crystals unfeasible. cctbx.xfel.merge uses filtering to remove problematic data. However, this process is imperfect, and data reduction must be robust to outliers. We add robustness to cctbx.xfel.merge at the step of uncertainty determination for reflection intensities. This step is a critical point for robustness because it is the first step where the data sets are considered as a whole, as opposed to individual lattices. Robustness is conferred by reformulating the error-calibration procedure to have fewer and less stringent statistical assumptions and incorporating the ability to down-weight low-quality lattices. We then apply this method to five macromolecular XFEL data sets and observe the improvements to each. The appropriateness of the intensity uncertainties is demonstrated through internal consistency. This is performed through theoretical CC 1/2 and I /σ relationships and by weighted second moments, which use Wilson's prior to connect intensity uncertainties with their expected distribution. This work presents new mathematical tools to analyze intensity statistics and demonstrates their effectiveness through the often underappreciated process of uncertainty analysis.

Mittan-Moreau, David W.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Sensitivity analysis of limit state functions for probability-based plastic design

The evaluation of the total probability of a plastic collapse failure P sub f for a highly redundant structure of random interdependent plastic moments acted on by random interdepedent loads is a difficult and computationally very costly process. The evaluation of reasonable bounds to this probability requires the use of second moment algebra which involves man statistical parameters. A computer program which selects the best strategy for minimizing the interval between upper and lower bounds of P sub f is now in its final stage of development. The relative importance of various uncertainties involved in the computational process on the resulting bounds of P sub f, sensitivity is analyzed. Response sensitivities for both mode and system reliability of an ideal plastic portal frame are shown.

Frangopol, D. M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Automated segmentation of porous thermal spray material CT scans with predictive uncertainty estimation

Abstract Thermal sprayed metal coatings are used in many industrial applications, and characterizing the structure and performance of these materials is vital to understanding their behavior in the field. X-ray computed tomography (CT) enables volumetric, nondestructive imaging of these materials, but precise segmentation of this grayscale image data into discrete material phases is necessary to calculate quantities of interest related to material structure. In this work, we present a methodology to automate the CT segmentation process as well as quantify uncertainty in segmentations via deep learning. Neural networks (NNs) have been shown to excel at segmentation tasks; however, memory constraints, class imbalance, and lack of sufficient training data often prohibit their deployment in high resolution volumetric domains. Our 3D convolutional NN implementation mitigates these challenges and accurately segments full resolution CT scans of thermal sprayed materials with maps of uncertainty that conservatively bound the predicted geometry. These bounds are propagated through calculations of material properties such as porosity that may provide an understanding of anticipated behavior in the field.

Martinez, Carianne↗
DOE OSTI2020

Automated Segmentation of Porous Thermal Spray Material CT Scans with Geometric Uncertainty Estimation

Thermal sprayed metal coatings are used in many industrial applications, and characterizing the structure and performance of these materials is vital to understanding their behavior in the field. X-ray Computed Tomography (CT) machines enable volumetric, nondestructive imaging of these materials, but precise segmentation of this grayscale image data into discrete material phases is necessary to calculate quantities of interest related to material structure. In this work, we present a methodology to automate the CT segmentation process as well as quantify uncertainty in segmentations via deep learning. Neural networks (NNs) are shown to accurately segment full resolution CT scans of thermal sprayed materials and provide maps of uncertainty that conservatively bound the predicted geometry. These bounds are propagated through calculations of material properties such as porosity that may provide an understanding of anticipated behavior in the field.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gemma V&V/UQ/Credibility Activities: FY2020 Progress

This report describes the credibility activities undertaken in support of Gemma code development in FY20, which include Verification & Validation (V&V), Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), and Credibility process application. The main goal of these activities is to establish capabilities and process frameworks that can be more broadly applied to new and more advanced problems as the Gemma code development effort matures. This will provide Gemma developers and analysts with the tools needed to generate credibility evidence in support of Gemma predictions for future use cases. The FY20 Gemma V&V/UQ/Credibility activities described in this report include experimental uncertainty analysis, the development and use of methods for optimal design of computer experiments, and the development of a framework for validation. These initial activities supported the development of broader credibility planning for Gemma that continued into FY21.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2020

Automated Noise Calibration System (VT-1000)

This paper details an automated Noise Source calibration system in development at Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology (JPL). The paper begins with a discussion on Noise Figure and Excess Noise Ratio (ENR) theory, fundamentals and governing equations. As part of the fundamentals is a discussion of the system’s use of the Y-factor method to obtain accurate measurements of the Unit Under Test (UUT), and how these measurements are compared against a known ENR standard to obtain the UUT’s ENR values. There is also an in-depth discussion on uncertainty quantification for Noise Source system calibrations. The architecture of the automated calibration system is provided, which includes both the system’s hardware and software configuration. The software is written in Python 3, and provides the user detailed instruction on how to proceed, including step-by-step connection requirements. This system automates much of the measurement process, including real-time uncertainty quantification and report generation, as well as real-time feedback to the user to allow intervention if necessary. The system takes advantage of a database of results from previous measurements to compare calibration history of the ENR measurements. The automated system presented here operates over a frequency range from 10 MHz to 50 GHz, and has shown substantial time savings over traditional manual methods of performing this calibration.

Timpe, Scott↗
NASA NTRS2012

Real-Time X-ray Radiography Diagnostics of Components in Solid Rocket Motors

Solid rocket motors (SRMs) typically use nozzle materials which are required to maintain their shape as well as insulate the underlying support structure during the motor operation. In addition, SRMs need internal insulation materials to protect the motor case from the harsh environment resulting from the combustion of solid propellant. In the nozzle, typical materials consist of high density graphite, carbon-carbon composites and carbon phenolic composites. Internal insulation of the motor cases is typically a composite material with carbon, asbestos, Kevlar, or silica fibers in an ablative matrix such as EPDM or NBR. For both nozzle and internal insulation materials, the charring process occurs when the hot combustion products heat the material intensely. The pyrolysis of the matrix material takes away a portion of the thermal energy near the wall surface and leaves behind a char layer. The fiber reinforcement retains the porous char layer which provides continued thermal protection from the hot combustion products. It is of great interest to characterize both the total erosion rates of the material and the char layer thickness. By better understanding of the erosion process for a particular ablative material in a specific flow environment, the required insulation material thickness can be properly selected. The recession rates of internal insulation and nozzle materials of SRMs are typically determined by testing in some sort of simulated environment; either arc-jet testing, flame torch testing, or subscale SRMs of different size. Material recession rates are deduced by comparison of pre- and post-test measurements and then averaging over the duration of the test. However, these averaging techniques cannot be used to determine the instantaneous recession rates of the material. Knowledge of the variation in recession rates in response to the instantaneous flow conditions during the motor operation is of great importance. For example, in many SRM configurations the recession of the solid propellant grain can drastically alter the flow-field and effect the recession of internal insulation and nozzle materials. Simultaneous measurement of the overall erosion rate, the development of the char layer, and the recession of the char-virgin interface during the motor operation can be rather difficult. While invasive techniques have been used with limited success, they have serious drawbacks. Break wires or make wire sensors can be installed into a sufficient number of locations in the charring material from which a time history of the charring surface can be deduced. These sensors fundamentally alter the local structure of the material in which they are imbedded. Also, the location of these sensors within the material is not known precisely without the use of an X-ray. To determine instantaneous recession rates, real-time X-ray radiography (X-ray RTR) has been utilized in several SRM experiments at PSU. The X-ray RTR system discussed in this paper consists of an X-ray source, X-ray image intensifier, and CCD camera connected to a capture computer. The system has been used to examine the ablation process of internal insulation as well as nozzle material erosion in a subscale SRM. The X-ray source is rated to 320 kV at 10 mA and has both a large (5.5 mm) and small (3.0 mm) focal spot. The lead-lined cesium iodide X-ray image intensifier produces an image which is captured by a CCD camera with a 1,000 x 1,000 pixel resolution. To produce accurate imagery of the object of interest, the alignment of the X-ray source to the X-ray image intensifier is crucial. The image sequences captured during the operation of an SRM are then processed to enhance the quality of the images. This procedure allows for computer software to extract data on the total erosion rate and the char layer thickness. Figure 1 Error! Reference source not found.shows a sequence of images captured during the operation the subscale SRM with the X-ray RTR system. The X-rayTR system, alignment procedure, uncertainty determination, and image analysis process will be discussed in detail in the full manuscript.

Cortopassi, A. C.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Development of an Uncertainty Model for the National Transonic Facility

This paper introduces an uncertainty model being developed for the National Transonic Facility (NTF). The model uses a Monte Carlo technique to propagate standard uncertainties of measured values through the NTF data reduction equations to calculate the combined uncertainties of the key aerodynamic force and moment coefficients and freestream properties. The uncertainty propagation approach to assessing data variability is compared with ongoing data quality assessment activities at the NTF, notably check standard testing using statistical process control (SPC) techniques. It is shown that the two approaches are complementary and both are necessary tools for data quality assessment and improvement activities. The SPC approach is the final arbiter of variability in a facility. Its result encompasses variation due to people, processes, test equipment, and test article. The uncertainty propagation approach is limited mainly to the data reduction process. However, it is useful because it helps to assess the causes of variability seen in the data and consequently provides a basis for improvement. For example, it is shown that Mach number random uncertainty is dominated by static pressure variation over most of the dynamic pressure range tested. However, the random uncertainty in the drag coefficient is generally dominated by axial and normal force uncertainty with much less contribution from freestream conditions.

Walter, Joel A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying physical parameterization uncertainties associated with land-atmosphere interactions in the WRF model over Amazon

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can be used to diagnose regional land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling strength in the absence of sufficient observations but subjected to uncertainties associated with model physical parameterizations. In this study, we propose a framework to quantify and reduce model physical parameterization uncertainties associated with surface fluxes and L-A coupling. An ensemble of WRF simulations with different physical schemes is used to simulate surface fluxes and land-atmosphere coupling strength over the Amazon region. The physical parameterizations investigated include cloud microphysics (MP), land surface processes (LSM), planetary boundary layer (PBL), surface layer (SL), and cumulus (CU). We perform 120 ensemble simulations using the WRF model and different combinations of six MPs, three LSMs, six PBLs and SLs and three CUs. The measurements from the GoAMAZON field campaign and satellite data are used to evaluate model performance. A Multi-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach is applied to quantify the relative importance of different physics processes on L-A coupling. The Tukey’s test is used to sort schemes that have no significant differences into one group. The suite of physics that result in the best simulations of the corresponding variables are selected based on the Taylor skill score. Results show that the relative importance of processes and their interaction vary with the variables of interest. For example, CU was the most important process in modulating soil moisture, 2 m-humidity, latent heat, and net radiation. LSM showed dominant effects on 2 m-temperature and also has the largest impact on sensible heat and the lifting condensation level. The best physical parameterization ensembles show much narrower ranges of the variables of interest than the priori ensemble. Results of this study show the roles of different physical processes in modulating L-A interactions, quantify model uncertainties from physical processes, and provide insights for improving the model physics parameterizations.

Wang, Chen↗
DOE OSTI2021

Current profile and normalized beta control via feedback linearization and Lyapunov techniques

Abstract Simultaneous control of the current profile and normalized plasma beta is an essential control problem in the development of advanced tokamak scenarios. However, this control problem is especially challenging due to the nonlinear nature of the current, heat, and particle transport dynamics, as well as the difficulty to understand and accurately model such processes. In this work, a nonlinear, robust, model-based controller for the simultaneous regulation of the current profile and normalized beta has been designed using feedback linearization and Lyapunov redesign techniques. Feedback linearization avoids approximate linearization of the plasma dynamics, retaining the original physics content of the model. Moreover, the use of Lyapunov redesign techniques makes the controller robust against the uncertainties arising during the modeling process. The controller’s performance in the presence of unknown dynamics is tested in nonlinear, one-dimensional simulations using the Control Oriented Transport SIMulator (COTSIM) code, which employs plasma models that are significantly more complex than those employed for control synthesis.

Physics↗