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At least 469 records · Page 26

On Advanced Estimation Techniques for Exoplanet Detection and Characterization using Ground-based Coronagraphs

The direct imaging of planets around nearby stars is exceedingly difficult. Only about 14 exoplanets have been imaged to date that have masses less than 13 times that of Jupiter. The next generation of planet-finding coronagraphs, including VLT-SPHERE, the Gemini Planet Imager, Palomar P1640, and Subaru HiCIAO have predicted contrast performance of roughly a thousand times less than would be needed to detect Earth-like planets. In this paper we review the state of the art in exoplanet imaging, most notably the method of Locally Optimized Combination of Images (LOCI), and we investigate the potential of improving the detectability of faint exoplanets through the use of advanced statistical methods based on the concepts of the ideal observer and the Hotelling observer. We propose a formal comparison of techniques using a blind data challenge with an evaluation of performance using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Localization ROC (LROC) curves. We place particular emphasis on the understanding and modeling of realistic sources of measurement noise in ground-based AO-corrected coronagraphs. The work reported in this paper is the result of interactions between the co-authors during a week-long workshop on exoplanet imaging that was held in Squaw Valley, California, in March of 2012

coronagraphs↗

On Advanced Estimation Techniques for Exoplanet Detection and Characterization using Ground-Based Coronagraphs

The direct imaging of planets around nearby stars is exceedingly difficult. Only about 14 exoplanets have been imaged to date that have masses less than 13 times that of Jupiter. The next generation of planet-finding coronagraphs, including VLT-SPHERE, the Gemini Planet Imager, Palomar P1640, and Subaru HiCIAO have predicted contrast performance of roughly a thousand times less than would be needed to detect Earth-like planets. In this paper we review the state of the art in exoplanet imaging, most notably the method of Locally Optimized Combination of Images (LOCI), and we investigate the potential of improving the detectability of faint exoplanets through the use of advanced statistical methods based on the concepts of the ideal observer and the Hotelling observer. We provide a formal comparison of techniques through a blind data challenge and evaluate performance using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Localization ROC (LROC) curves. We place particular emphasis on the understanding and modeling of realistic sources of measurement noise in ground-based AO-corrected coronagraphs. The work reported in this paper is the result of interactions between the co-authors during a week-long workshop on exoplanet imaging that was held in Squaw Valley, California, in March of 2012.

instrumentation↗

Estimating the urban bias of surface shelter temperatures using upper-air and satellite data. Part 1: Development of models predicting surface shelter temperatures

Multiple regression techniques were used to predict surface shelter temperatures based on the time period 1986-89 using upper-air data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to represent the background climate and site-specific data to represent the local landscape. Global monthly mean temperature models were developed using data from over 5000 stations available in the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN). Monthly maximum, mean, and minimum temperature models for the United States were also developed using data from over 1000 stations available in the U.S. Cooperative (COOP) Network and comparative monthly mean temperature models were developed using over 1150 U.S. stations in the GHCN. Three-, six-, and full-variable models were developed for comparative purposes. Inferences about the variables selected for the various models were easier for the GHCN models, which displayed month-to-month consistency in which variables were selected, than for the COOP models, which were assigned a different list of variables for nearly every month. These and other results suggest that global calibration is preferred because data from the global spectrum of physical processes that control surface temperatures are incorporated in a global model. All of the models that were developed in this study validated relatively well, especially the global models. Recalibration of the models with validation data resulted in only slightly poorer regression statistics, indicating that the calibration list of variables was valid. Predictions using data from the validation dataset in the calibrated equation were better for the GHCN models, and the globally calibrated GHCN models generally provided better U.S. predictions than the U.S.-calibrated COOP models. Overall, the GHCN and COOP models explained approximately 64%-95% of the total variance of surface shelter temperatures, depending on the month and the number of model variables. In addition, root-mean-square errors (rmse's) were over 3 C for GHCN models and over 2 C for COOP models for winter months, and near 2 C for GHCN models and near 1.5 C for COOP models for summer months.

Epperson, David L.↗

Assessing Confidence in Pliocene Sea Surface Temperatures to Evaluate Predictive Models

In light of mounting empirical evidence that planetary warming is well underway, the climate research community looks to palaeoclimate research for a ground-truthing measure with which to test the accuracy of future climate simulations. Model experiments that attempt to simulate climates of the past serve to identify both similarities and differences between two climate states and, when compared with simulations run by other models and with geological data, to identify model-specific biases. Uncertainties associated with both the data and the models must be considered in such an exercise. The most recent period of sustained global warmth similar to what is projected for the near future occurred about 3.33.0 million years ago, during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we present Pliocene sea surface temperature data, newly characterized in terms of level of confidence, along with initial experimental results from four climate models. We conclude that, in terms of sea surface temperature, models are in good agreement with estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperature in most regions except the North Atlantic. Our analysis indicates that the discrepancy between the Pliocene proxy data and model simulations in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, where models underestimate warming shown by our highest-confidence data, may provide a new perspective and insight into the predictive abilities of these models in simulating a past warm interval in Earth history.This is important because the Pliocene has a number of parallels to present predictions of late twenty-first century climate.

simulation↗

Multicolor eclipse studies of UU Aquarii. 1: Observations and system parameters

A study of the eclipses in UU Aqr from multicolor high-speed photometry is presented. A revised ephemeris for the times of minimum and an upper limit for orbital period variations are obtained. We use measurements of contact phases in the eclipse light curve to derive the binary geometry and to estimate masses and relevant dimensions. We find a mass ratio of q = 0.30 +/- 0.07 and an inclination of i = 78 deg +/- 2 deg. The masses of the component stars are M(sub 1) = 0.67 +/- 0.14 solar mass and M(sub 2) = 0.20 +/- 0.07 solar mass. Our photometric model predicts K(sub 1) = 84 +/- 26 km/s, which is approximately 30% smaller than the velocity amplitude obtained from the emission lines. From the white dwarf fluxes we estimate T(sub wd) approximately = 34,000 K and a distance of d = 270 +/- 50 pc if the inner disk is opaque. UU Aqr has long term brightness variations of approximately = 0.3 m on timescales of approximately 4 yr. The system was in a 'high' state in 1989 and 1990 and in a 'low' state in 1988 and 1992. The high state results from an increase in the brightness of the outer and cooler parts of the disk, mainly due to the appearance of a bright spot at disk rim. Based on the smooth and gradual eclipse shape and on the absence of a prominent hump in the light curve we suggest that UU Aqr is a high mass-transfer nova-like system with a relatively bright and optically thick accretion disk. We find no perceptible eclipse in the H-alpha emission line. The fluxes at mid-eclipse can be fitted by a compostion of a late-type spectrum plus an optically thin hydrogen emission-line spectrum. These evidences suggest that the emission lines are formed in an extended region only partially occulted during eclipse.

Baptista, R.↗

An Assessment of the Impact of the 1997-98 El Nino on the Asian-Australian Monsoon

Using state-of-the-art satellite-gauge monthly rainfall estimate and optimally interpolated sea surface temperature (SST) data, we have assessed the 1997-98 AA-monsoon anomalies in terms of three basic causal factors: basin-scale SST, regional coupling, and internal variability. Singular Value Decomposition analyses of rainfall and SST are carried out globally over the entire tropics and regionally over the AA-monsoon domain. Contributions to monsoon rainfall predictability by various factors are evaluated from cumulative anomaly correlation with dominant regional SVD modes. Results reveal a dominant, large-scale monsoon-El Nino coupled mode with well-defined centers of action in the near-equatorial monsoon regions during the boreal summer and winter respectively. The observed 1997-98 AA-monsoon anomalies are found to be very complex with approximately 34% of the anomalies of the Asian (boreal) summer monsoon and 74% of the Australia (austral) monsoon attributable to basin-scale SST influence associated with El Nino. Regional coupled processes contribute an additional 19% and 10%, leaving about 47% and 16% due to internal dynamics for the boreal and austral monsoon respectively. For the boreal summer monsoon, it is noted that the highest monsoon predictability is not necessary associated with major El Nino events (e.g. 1997, 1982) but rather in non-El Nino years (e.g. 1980, 1988) when contributions from the regional coupled modes far exceed those from the basin-scale SST. The results suggest that in order to improve monsoon seasonal-to-interannual predictability, there is a need to exploit not only monsoon-El Nino relationship, but also intrinsic monsoon regional coupled processes.

Lau, K.-M.↗

Investigation of Space Based Solid State Coherent Lidar

This report describes the work performed over the period of October 1, 1997 through March 31, 2001. Under this contract, UAH/CAO participated in defining and designing the SPAce Readiness Coherent Lidar Experiment (SPARCLE) mission, and developed the instrument's optical subsystem. This work was performed in collaborative fashion with NASA/MSFC engineers at both UAH/CAO and NASA/MSFC facilities. Earlier work by the UAH/CAO had produced a preliminary top-level system design for the Shuttle lidar instrument meeting the proposed mission performance requirements and the Space Shuttle Hitchhiker canister volume constraints. The UAH/CAO system design efforts had concentrated on the optical and mechanical designs of the instrument. The instrument electronics were also addressed, and the major electronic components and their interfaces defined. The instrument design concept was mainly based on the state of the transmitter and local oscillator laser development at NASA Langley Research Center and Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and utilized several lidar-related technologies that were either developed or evaluated by the NASA/MSFC and UAH/CAO scientists. UAH/CAO has developed a comprehensive coherent lidar numerical model capable of analyzing the performance of different instrument and mission concepts. This model uses the instrument configuration, atmospheric conditions and current velocity estimation theory to provide prediction of instrument performance during different phases of operation. This model can also optimize the design parameters of the instrument.

Amzajerdian, Farzin↗

Contribution of Soil Moisture Information to Streamflow Prediction in the Snowmelt Season: A Continental-Scale Analysis

In areas dominated by winter snowcover, the prediction of streamflow during the snowmelt season may benefit from three pieces of information: (i) the accurate prediction of weather variability (precipitation, etc.) leading up to and during the snowmelt season, (ii) estimates of the amount of snow present during the winter season, and (iii) estimates of the amount of soil moisture underlying the snowpack during the winter season. The importance of accurate meteorological predictions and wintertime snow estimates is obvious. The contribution of soil moisture to streamflow prediction is more subtle yet potentially very important. If the soil is dry below the snowpack, a significant fraction of the snowmelt may be lost to streamflow and potential reservoir storage, since it may infiltrate the soil instead for later evaporation. Such evaporative losses are presumably smaller if the soil below the snowpack is wet. In this paper, we use a state-of-the-art land surface model to quantify the contribution of wintertime snow and soil moisture information -- both together and separately -- to skill in forecasting springtime streamflow. We find that soil moisture information indeed contributes significantly to streamflow prediction skill.

Reichle, Rolf↗

Use of sensitivity analysis to predict pilot performance as a function of different displays

A technique for objectively evaluating different displays by sensitivity analysis is described. First, the mathematical model used to analyze static displays is developed. The technique is based on formulating functional relationships between the state variables and the variables observable in the display. The matrix of the partial derivatives of the display variables with respect to the state variables, together with the observer's acuity function, is used to calculate expected errors in the state vector estimation. The technique is expanded by the use of Kalman filtering to process a time series of observation vectors. This provides a tool for analyzing displays of dynamic processes by means of a dynamic display evaluation computer program. Results are reported using this program to simulate an Instrument Landing System approach.

Mout, M. L.↗

Cycling phosphorus on the Archean Earth: Part II. Phosphorus limitation on primary production in Archean ecosystems

Several lines of evidence point to low rates of net primary production (NPP) in Archean oceans. However, whether Archean NPP was limited by electron donors or nutrients, particularly phosphorus (P), and how these factors might have changed over a billion years of recorded Archean history, remains contentious. One major challenge is to understand quantitatively the biogeochemical cycling of P on the early Earth. In Part I of this series (Hao et al., 2020), we estimated the weathering flux of P to the oceans as a function of temporally increasing continental emergence and elevation through Archean time. In Part II, we conduct thermodynamic and kinetic simulations to understand key processes of P cycling within the Archean ocean, including seafloor weathering, recycling of organic P, the solubility and precipitation of secondary phosphate minerals, and the burial diagenesis of P precipitates. Our calculations suggest low solubilities of apatite minerals in Archean seawater, primarily due to nearly neutral pH and high levels of Ca. This low solubility, in turn, implies a negligible contribution of apatite dissolution to P bioavailability in Archean seawater. We also simulate the solubility limits of common secondary P-bearing minerals, showing that vivianite would have been the least soluble P mineral in ferruginous Archean seawater (0.1–0.3 µM), even at moderate supersaturation states (Ω = 100 or 1000). If vivianite precipitation was kinetically favorable by microbial activities and mineral adsorption, the sinking flux of P as vivianite in Archean seawater could have reached the modern sinking flux, implying that vivianite precipitation was a potentially major sink for P in Archean oceans. During burial diagenesis, however, vivianite in porewater would have become less stable than Ca-phosphates of lower solubility. At elevated temperatures (>100 °C) associated with burial diagenesis and low-grade metamorphism, vivianite is predicted to react irreversibly with calcite to form apatite. Optimistic assumptions about the recycling efficiency of P on the Archean Earth lead us to estimate that by the end of the eon the total flux of P (continental weathering + recycling) could have supported NPP at levels up to 7% of the modern. The total flux of P would have been much lower on the early and middle Archean Earth, whereas fluxes of electron donors could have been higher, suggesting very low productivity and P-limitation of marine ecosystems during much of the eon. Comparing our estimates of NPP as limited by P supply with the estimate by Ward et al. (2019), in which NPP was limited by electron donors and metabolic efficiency, there could have been a transition between P-limited productivity in the early to middle Archean to electron donor-limitation closer to the eon’s end (assuming no oxygenic photosynthesis). Once oxygenic photosynthesis reached ecological significance, probably near the end of the Archean, our estimated flux of P would allow rapid oxidation of atmosphere.

Vivianite↗

Aerodynamic flight control to increase payload capability of future launch vehicles

In this report, we provide some examples of French, Russian, Chinese, and Japanese launch vehicles that have utilized fins in their designs. Next, the aerodynamic design of the fins is considered in Section 3. Some comments on basic static stability and control theory are followed by a brief description of an aerodynamic characteristics prediction code that was used to estimate the characteristics of a modified NLS 1.5 Stage vehicle. Alternative fin designs are proposed and some estimated aerodynamic characteristics presented and discussed. Also included in Section 3 is a discussion of possible methods of enhancement of the aerodynamic efficiency of fins, such as vortex generators and jet flaps. We consider the construction of fins for launch vehicles in Section 4 and offer an assessment of the state-of-the-art in the use of composites for aerodynamic control surfaces on high speed vehicles. We also comment on the use of smart materials for launch vehicle fins. The dynamic stability and control of a launch vehicle that utilizes both thrust vector control (engine nozzle gimballing) and movable fins is the subject addressed in Section 5. We give a short derivation of equations of motion for a launch vehicle moving in a vertical plane above a spherical earth, discuss the use of a gravity-turn nominal trajectory, and give the form of the period equations linearized about such a nominal. We then consider feedback control of vehicle attitude using both engine gimballing and fin deflection. Conclusions are stated and recommendations made in Section 6. An appendix contains aerodynamic data in tabular and graphical formats.

Cochran, John E., Jr.↗

Exploiting Lunar Natural and Augmented Thermal Environments for Exploration and Research

Near the poles of the Moon, there are permanently shadowed craters whose surface temperatures never exceed 100 K. Craters within craters, commonly referred to as double-shaded craters, have areas where even colder regions exist with, in many cases, temperatures that should never exceed 50 K. The presence of water ice possibly existing in permanently shaded areas of the moon has been hypothesized, discussed, and studied since Watson et al. [1] predicted the possibility of ice on the moon. Ingersoll et al. [2] estimated that the maximum sublimation rate for ice is less than 1 cm per billion years for these types of environments. These potential ice stores have many uses for lunar exploration, potentially providing precious water and rocket fuel for any human exploration or future colonization. The temperatures within these regions offer unprecedented high-vacuum cryogenic environments, which in their natural state could support cryogenic applications such as high-temperature superconductors and associated devices that could be derived. The potential application of naturally occurring cryogenic environments in conjunction with simple methods to augment these environments to achieve even colder temperatures opens the potential use of many additional cryogenic techniques. Besides ice stores and the potential for continuous solar illumination for power production, the unique cryogenic conditions at the lunar poles provide an environment that could reduce the power, weight, and total mass that would have to be carried from the Earth to the Moon for lunar exploration and research.

Ryan, Robert E.↗

Effect of Distributed Patch of Smooth Roughness Elements on Transition in a High-Speed Boundary Layer

Surface roughness is known to have a substantial impact on the aerothermodynamic loading of hypersonic vehicles, particularly via its influence on the laminar-turbulent transition process within the boundary layer. Numerical simulations are performed to investigate the effects of a distributed region of densely packed, smooth-shaped roughness elements on the laminar boundary layer over a 7-degree half-angle, circular cone for flow conditions corresponding to a selected trajectory point from the ascent phase of the HIFiRE-1 flight experiment. For peak-to-valley roughness heights of 50 percent or less in comparison with the thickness of the unperturbed boundary layer, the computations converge to a stationary flow, suggesting that the flow is globally stable. Analysis of convective instabilities in the wake of the roughness patch indicates two dominant families of unstable disturbances, namely, a high frequency mode that corresponds to Mack mode waves modified by the wake and a lower frequency mode that corresponds to shear layer instabilities associated with the streaks in the roughness wake. Even though the peak growth rate of the later mode is more than 35 percent greater than the peak growth rates of the Mack modes, the latter modes achieve higher amplification ratios, and hence, are likely to dominate the onset of transition, which is estimated to occur slightly later than that in the unperturbed, i.e., smooth surface boundary layer. Additional computations are performed to investigate the effects of various roughness patch configurations on a Mach 3.5 flat plate boundary layer, to help guide an upcoming experiment in the Mach 3.5 Supersonic Low Disturbance Tunnel at NASA Langley Research Center. In this case, the cumulative reinforcement of basic state distortion over the length of the roughness patch is predicted to yield a significantly earlier transition than that over a smooth plate or a plate with a shorter length roughness patch.

Meelan Choudhari↗

Development of modified vibration test criteria for qualifying space vehicle components

Simplified methods are described to estimate the test criteria of primary structures at component attachment points subjected to broadband random acoustic excitations. The current method utilizes a constant smeared component mass attenuation factor across the frequency range of interest. The developed method indicates that the attenuation factor is based on a frequency dependent ratio of the mechanical impedances of both the component and primary structures. The procedures used to predict the structural responses are considered as the present state-of-the-art and provide satisfactory prediction results. Example problems are used to illustrate the application procedures of the two methods and to compare the significant difference. It was found that the lower test criteria obtained by the impedance ratio method is due to the results of considering the effects of component/primary structure interaction.

Chang, K. Y.↗

Analysis of visual estimation of system state from arbitrary displays

A method is presented for implementing the state estimator of the manual control model when the system output is a visual display of arbitrary form; that is, the display may be pictorial, including real world, or made up of dials and pointers. The method is used to provide error criteria for a look-point controller that appears to be capable of modeling human scanning behavior. This model, if combined with a model of the control process, should be useful in predicting effects of changes in displays on performance of flight tasks.

Gainer, P. A.↗

Optimum thermal infrared bands for mapping general rock type and temperature from space

A study was carried out to determine quantitatively the number and location of spectral bands required to perform general rock type discrimination from spaceborne imaging sensors using only thermal infrared measurements. Beginning with laboratory spectra collected under idealized conditions from relatively well-characterized homogeneous samples, a radiative transfer model was used to transform ground exitance values into the corresponding spectral radiance at the top of the atmosphere. Taking sensor noise into account, analysis of these data revealed that three 1 micron wide spectral bands would permit independent estimations of rock type and sample temperature from a satellite infrared multispectral scanner. This study, which ignores the mixing of terrain elements within the instantaneous field of view of a satellite scanner, indicates that the location of three spectral bands at 8.1-9.1, 9.5-10.5, and 11.0-12.0 microns, and the employment of appropriate preprocessing to minimize atmospheric effects makes it possible to predict general rock type and temperature for a variety of atmospheric states and temperatures.

Holmes, Q. A.↗

Metallic bond effects on mean excitation energies for stopping powers

Mean excitation energies for first row metals are evaluated by means of the local plasma approximation. Particle corrections based on Pines' (1953) procedure and the Wigner Seitz (1934) model of the metallic state are included. The agreement with experimental values is remarkably good. In contrast to previous work, the calculations given here estimate shifts in the plasma frequency according to the theory for plane wave states in an extended plasma as calculated by Pines. It is demonstrated that the effects of the metallic bond in lithium and beryllium are quite large and that they appear mainly as a result of collective oscillations in the 'free' electron gas formed from the valence electrons. The usefulness of the plasma frequency shift derived for a degenerate electron gas in predicting the plasma frequency shift within the ion core is considered surprising.

Wilson, J. W.↗

Data requirements to model creep in 9Cr-1Mo-V steel

Models for creep behavior are helpful in predicting response of components experiencing stress redistributions due to cyclic loads, and often the analyst would like information that correlates strain rate with history assuming simple hardening rules such as those based on time or strain. On the one hand, much progress has been made in the development of unified constitutive equations that include both hardening and softening through the introduction of state variables whose evolutions are history dependent. Although it is difficult to estimate specific data requirements for general application, there are several simple measurements that can be made in the course of creep testing and results reported in data bases. The issue is whether or not such data could be helpful in developing unified equations, and, if so, how should such data be reported. Data produced on a martensitic 9Cr-1Mo-V-Nb steel were examined with these issues in mind.

Swindeman, R. W.↗