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NASA NTRS2017

Coupled Data Assimilation for Integrated Earth System Analysis and Prediction: Goals, Challenges, and Recommendations

The purpose of this report is to identify fundamental issues for coupled data assimilation (CDA), such as gaps in science and limitations in forecasting systems, in order to provide guidance to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on how to facilitate more rapid progress internationally. Coupled Earth system modeling provides the opportunity to extend skillful atmospheric forecasts beyond the traditional two-week barrier by extracting skill from low-frequency state components such as the land, ocean, and sea ice. More generally, coupled models are needed to support seamless prediction systems that span timescales from weather, subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), multiyear, and decadal. Therefore, initialization methods are needed for coupled Earth system models, either applied to each individual component (called Weakly Coupled Data Assimilation - WCDA) or applied the coupled Earth system model as a whole (called Strongly Coupled Data Assimilation - SCDA). Using CDA, in which model forecasts and potentially the state estimation are performed jointly, each model domain benefits from observations in other domains either directly using error covariance information known at the time of the analysis (SCDA), or indirectly through flux interactions at the model boundaries (WCDA). Because the non-atmospheric domains are generally under-observed compared to the atmosphere, CDA provides a significant advantage over single-domain analyses. Next, we provide a synopsis of goals, challenges, and recommendations to advance CDA: Goals: (a) Extend predictive skill beyond the current capability of NWP (e.g. as demonstrated by improving forecast skill scores), (b) produce physically consistent initial conditions for coupled numerical prediction systems and reanalyses (including consistent fluxes at the domain interfaces), (c) make best use of existing observations by allowing observations from each domain to influence and improve the full earth system analysis, (d) develop a robust observation-based identification and understanding of mechanisms that determine the variability of weather and climate, (e) identify critical weaknesses in coupled models and the earth observing system, (f) generate full-field estimates of unobserved or sparsely observed variables, (g) improve the estimation of the external forcings causing changes to climate, (h) transition successes from idealized CDA experiments to real-world applications. Challenges: (a) Modeling at the interfaces between interacting components of coupled Earth system models may be inadequate for estimating uncertainty or error covariances between domains, (b) current data assimilation methods may be insufficient to simultaneously analyze domains containing multiple spatiotemporal scales of interest, (c) there is no standardization of observation data or their delivery systems across domains, (d) the size and complexity of many large-scale coupled Earth system models makes it is difficult to accurately represent uncertainty due to model parameters and coupling parameters, (e) model errors lead to local biases that can transfer between the different Earth system components and lead to coupled model biases and long-term model drift, (e) information propagation across model components with different spatiotemporal scales is extremely complicated, and must be improved in current coupled modeling frameworks, (h) there is insufficient knowledge on how to represent evolving errors in non-atmospheric model components (e.g. as sea ice, land and ocean) on the timescales of NWP.

CDA↗

NASA NTRS2019

Soil Moisture Data Assimilation

Accurate knowledge of soil moisture at the continental scale is important for improving predictions of weather, agricultural productivity and natural hazards, but observations of soil moisture at such scales are limited to indirect measurements, either obtained through satellite remote sensing or from meteorological networks. Land surface models simulate soil moisture processes, using observation-based meteorological forcing data, and auxiliary information about soil, terrain and vegetation characteristics. Enhanced estimates of soil moisture and other land surface variables, along with their uncertainty, can be obtained by assimilating observations of soil moisture into land surface models. These assimilation results are of direct relevance for the initialization of hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting systems. The success of the assimilation depends on the choice of the assimilation technique, the nature of the model and the assimilated observations, and, most importantly, the characterization of model and observation error. Systematic differences between satellite-based microwave observations or satellite-retrieved soil moisture and their simulated counterparts require special attention. Other challenges include inferring root-zone soil moisture information from observations that pertain to a shallow surface soil layer, propagating information to unobserved areas and downscaling of coarse information to finer-scale soil moisture estimates. This chapter summarizes state-of-the-art solutions to these issues with conceptual data assimilation examples, using techniques ranging from simplified optimal interpolation to spatial ensemble Kalman filtering. In addition, operational soil moisture assimilation systems are discussed that support numerical weather prediction at ECMWF and provide value-added soil moisture products for the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive mission.

radar backscatter↗

DOE OSTI2022

Decoding Golden Eagle Movement Behavior from High-Resolution, Variable-Rate Telemetry Data Through Bayesian Filtering

The recent advances in animal tracking technology have enabled the collection of a vast amount of in situ data regarding the movement of wildlife at high spatiotemporal resolution. These data are usually available at variable time resolutions and contains noise (error) originating from GPS fixes. Decoding movement characteristics, particularly of flying animals, from telemetry data while handling these factors is a challenging yet important task for conservation purposes. Typically, this task is broken into two subtasks: resampling, and model calibration. The resampling subtask converts the variable rate positional data into a constant time interval data, while the model calibration subtask uses the resampled data to tune time-invariant parameters of the proposed models. For telemetry data at high temporal resolutions (order of 1 second), it is very challenging to decouple noise from actual movements using interpolation-based resampling techniques. Any errors introduced during resampling can significantly alter the the calibration and prediction attributes of the movement model. We address this problem through a unified Bayesian state-space framework that can handle both the resampling and calibration tasks in a single step. In addition, we use the speed and heading of the bird from telemetry data to regularize the position information of the bird. We use a Kalman filtering approach to include these nonlinearly related motion parameters within the state space framework. We cross-validated to quantify how this inclusion affects the model performance in estimating true bird movements. The relationship between the true state of the bird and environmental and topographical covariates is then represented parametrically. These parameters are then tuned using stochastic sampling strategies like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We use the telemetry data collected from golden eagles in the western USA to demonstrate the applicability of this approach to build a predictive, probabilistic movement model. Our preliminary results show that this approach provides improved predictive performance in terms of capturing higher-order motion parameters such as angular and horizontal accelerations, which may have simpler and more direct relationships with environmental covariates than corresponding speeds. In this talk, we will demonstrate how this state-space approach benefits the prediction capabilities of a movement model in simulating golden eagle paths through a wind power plant in Wyoming given certain atmospheric conditions. The model outcomes are aimed at informing mitigation strategies that can minimize the potential for collisions of golden eagles with wind turbines.

Bayesian methods↗

DOE OSTI2025

Estimating soybean yields from high-temporal-resolution multi-source data using deep learning

Accurate and timely crop yield prediction is crucial for ensuring food security and maintaining stable agricultural markets. In recent years, there has been a surge in interest in leveraging high-temporal-resolution, multi-source data for effective crop growth monitoring and yield estimation. A notable challenge arises from the difficulty in capturing the intricate interactions between variables across different time steps within these high-temporal-resolution time series datasets. This complexity hinders the reliable extraction of yield information from voluminous and often noisy datasets, especially during periods of extreme weather events. Here, in this study, we propose an Attention and Graph Isomorphism Network-enhanced Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory network (AGB-LSTM) for estimating county-level soybean yield in the United States. This model integrates a diverse set of remote sensing data, including Near-Infrared Reflectance of Vegetation (NIRv), Sun-Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF), and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), along with environmental covariates. The AGB-LSTM effectively leverages information related to crop yield from high-temporal-resolution time series data (5-days), achieving an accuracy of R²= 0.67 and rRMSE = 14.46%. This approach significantly outperforms traditional machine learning methods such as Random Forest (RF) (R²= 0.52, rRMSE = 17.36%) and Bi-LSTM (R²= 0.58, rRMSE = 16.17%). Sensitivity experiments with different time steps and ranges demonstrated that our model could accurately and stably predict yields 1 to 2 months before harvest. Moreover, data with a finer temporal resolution consistently improved prediction performance, resulting in an approximately 20% increase in and an approximately 20% decrease in rRMSE compared to using monthly composites. We also evaluated the robustness of the model under extreme climate events and observed strong performance (R²= 0.50, rRMSE = 21.32%). Finally, yield mapping for major soybean-producing regions in North America in 2023 revealed spatial patterns that closely matched USDA yield reports. Our findings suggest that the AGB-LSTM model is a promising and effective method for estimating yield and has notable potential for global crop yield forecasting.

Deep learning↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comment on ‘Carbon Intensity of corn ethanol in the United States: state of the science’

Abstract In their recent contribution, Scully et al (2021 Environ. Res. Lett. 16 043001) review and revise past life cycle assessments of corn-grain ethanol’s carbon (C) intensity to suggest that a current ‘central best estimate’ is considerably less than all prior estimates. Their conclusion emerges from selection and recombination of sector-specific greenhouse gas emission predictions from disparate studies in a way that disproportionately favors small values and optimistic assumptions without rigorous justification nor empirical support. Their revisions most profoundly reduce predicted land use change (LUC) emissions, for which they propose a central estimate that is roughly half the smallest comparable value they review (figure 1). This LUC estimate represents the midpoint of (a) values retained after filtering the predictions of past studies based on a set of unfounded criteria; and (b) a new estimate they generate for domestic (i.e. U.S.) LUC emissions. The filter the authors apply endorses a singular means of LUC assessment which they assert as the ‘best practice’ despite a recent unacknowledged review (Malins et al 2020 J. Clean. Prod. 258 120716) that shows this method almost certainly underestimates LUC. Moreover, their domestic C intensity estimate surprisingly suggests that cropland expansion newly sequesters soil C, counter to ecological theory and empirical evidence. These issues, among others, prove to grossly underestimate the C intensity of corn-grain ethanol and mischaracterize the state of our science at the risk of perversely affecting policy outcomes.

Spawn-Lee, Seth A. (ORCID:0000000188215345)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data from Unique Contributions of Chlorophyll and Nitrogen to Predict Crop Photosynthetic Capacity from Leaf Spectroscopy

The photosynthetic capacity or the CO2-saturated photosynthetic rate (Vmax), chlorophyll, and nitrogen are closely linked leaf traits that determine C4 crop photosynthesis and yield. Accurate, timely, rapid, and non-destructive approaches to predict leaf photosynthetic traits from hyperspectral reflectance are urgently needed for high-throughput crop monitoring to ensure food and bioenergy security. Therefore, this study thoroughly evaluated the state-of-the-art physically based radiative transfer models (RTMs), data-driven partial least squares regression (PLSR), and generalized PLSR (gPLSR) models to estimate leaf traits from leaf-clip hyperspectral reflectance, which was collected from maize (Zea mays L.) bioenergy plots with diverse genotypes, growth stages, treatments with nitrogen fertilizers, and ozone stresses in three growing seasons. The results show that leaf RTMs considering bidirectional effects can give accurate estimates of chlorophyll content (Pearson correlation r=0.95), while gPLSR enabled retrieval of leaf nitrogen concentration (r=0.85). Using PLSR with field measurements for training, the cross-validation indicates that Vmax can be well predicted from spectra (r=0.81). The integration of chlorophyll content (strongly related to visible spectra) and nitrogen concentration (linked to shortwave infrared signals) can provide better predictions of Vmax (r=0.71) than only using either chlorophyll or nitrogen individually. This study highlights that leaf chlorophyll content and nitrogen concentration have key and unique contributions to Vmax prediction.

Biomass Analytics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Review of Neutron Yield from (α, n) Reactions: Data, Methods, and Prospects

Understanding the radiogenic neutron production rate through the (α, n) reaction is crucial in many areas of physics, including dark matter searches, neutrino studies, and nuclear astrophysics. In addition to its relevance for fundamental research, the (α, n) reaction also plays a significant role in nuclear energy technologies, for example by contributing to neutron production in subcritical systems using UO2, as well as in applications such as medical physics. This review examines the current state of (α, n) yield calculations and neutron spectra, describes the computational tools used for their estimation, and discusses the available cross-section data. We discuss the uncertainties affecting (α, n) yield estimations and propose a strategy to enhance their accuracy. Furthermore, this paper discusses and emphasizes the need for new measurements of (α, n) cross-sections for a variety of relevant materials. Such measurements are essential for improving neutron flux predictions, which are crucial for reducing uncertainties in sensitivity estimates for next-generation physics experiments operating in the keV—MeV range.

(α, n)reactions↗

DOE OSTI2022

The eROSITA Final Equatorial-Depth Survey (eFEDS)

In 2019, the eROSITA telescope on board the Russian-German satellite Spectrum-Roentgen-Gamma (SRG) began to perform a deep all-sky X-ray survey with the aim of identifying ~100 000 clusters and groups over the course of four years. As part of its performance verification phase, a ~140 deg 2 survey, called eROSITA Final Equatorial-Depth Survey (eFEDS), was performed. With a depth typical of the all-sky survey after four years, it allows tests of tools and methods as well as improved predictions for the all-sky survey. As part of this effort, a catalog of 542 X-ray selected galaxy group and cluster candidates was compiled. Here, in this paper, we present the optical follow-up, with the aim of providing redshifts and cluster confirmation for the full sample. Furthermore, we aim to provide additional information on the dynamical state, richness, and optical center of the clusters. Finally, we aim to evaluate the impact of optical cluster confirmation on the purity and completeness of the X-ray selected sample. We used optical imaging data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program and from the Legacy Survey to identify optical counterparts to the X-ray detected cluster candidates. We make use of the multi-component matched filter cluster confirmation tool (MCMF), as well as of the optical cluster finder CAMIRA to derive cluster redshifts and richnesses. MCMF provided the probabilities with which an optical structure would be a chance superposition with the X-ray candidate. These probabilities were used to identify the best optical counterpart as well as to confirm an X-ray candidate as a cluster. The impact of this confirmation process on catalog purity and completeness was estimated using optical to X-ray scaling relations as well as simulations. The resulting catalog was furthermore matched with public group and cluster catalogs. Optical estimators of the cluster dynamical state were constructed based on density maps of the red-sequence galaxies at the cluster redshift. By providing redshift estimates for all 542 candidates, we construct an optically confirmed sample of 477 clusters and groups with a residual contamination of 6%. Of these, 470 (98.5%) are confirmed using MCMF, and 7 systems are added through cross-matching with spectroscopic group catalogs. Using observable-to-observable scaling and the applied confirmation threshold, we predict that 8 ± 2 real systems have been excluded with the MCMF cut required to build this low-contamination sample. This number agrees well with the 7 systems found through cross-matching that were not confirmed with MCMF. The predicted redshift and mass distribution of this catalog agree well with simulations. Thus, we expect that these 477 systems include >99% of all true clusters in the candidate list. Using an MCMF-independent method, we confirm that the catalog contamination of the confirmed subsample is 6 ± 3%. Application of the same method to the full candidate list yields 17 ± 3%, consistent with estimates coming from the fraction of confirmed systems of ~17% and with expectations from simulations of ~20%. We also present a sample of merging cluster candidates based on the derived estimators of the cluster dynamical state.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Unique contributions of chlorophyll and nitrogen to predict crop photosynthetic capacity from leaf spectroscopy

The photosynthetic capacity or the CO 2 -saturated photosynthetic rate (Vmax), chlorophyll, and nitrogen are closely linked leaf traits that determine C 4 crop photosynthesis and yield. Accurate, timely, rapid, and non-destructive approaches to predict leaf photosynthetic traits from hyperspectral reflectance are urgently needed for high-throughput crop monitoring to ensure food and bioenergy security. Therefore, this study thoroughly evaluated the state-of-the-art physically based radiative transfer models (RTMs), data-driven partial least squares regression (PLSR), and generalized PLSR (gPLSR) models to estimate leaf traits from leaf-clip hyperspectral reflectance, which was collected from maize (Zea mays L.) bioenergy plots with diverse genotypes, growth stages, treatments with nitrogen fertilizers, and ozone stresses in three growing seasons. The results show that leaf RTMs considering bidirectional effects can give accurate estimates of chlorophyll content (Pearson correlation r=0.95), while gPLSR enabled retrieval of leaf nitrogen concentration (r=0.85). Using PLSR with field measurements for training, the cross-validation indicates that V max can be well predicted from spectra (r=0.81). Here, the integration of chlorophyll content (strongly related to visible spectra) and nitrogen concentration (linked to shortwave infrared signals) can provide better predictions of V max (r=0.71) than only using either chlorophyll or nitrogen individually. This study highlights that leaf chlorophyll content and nitrogen concentration have key and unique contributions to V max prediction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

AutonomieAI: An efficient and deployable vehicle energy consumption estimation toolkit

Here, this paper presents AutonomieAI, a novel toolkit designed for efficient energy estimation of vehicles across diverse trip scenarios, routes, and drive cycles, applicable to a broad range of vehicle powertrain technologies. It leverages state-of-the-art Machine Learning techniques to deliver real-time energy prediction of vehicles, enabling co-simulation with transportation level system tools and opening doors for large-scale optimization at city, network or national level. Benchmark results show that AutonomieAI achieves high accuracy, with an average percentage error below 2% for most powertrain types, and computational efficiency capable of processing over 10,000 trips per second. Applications of AutonomieAI have potential to offer the flexibility to assist in solving eco-routing problems, optimize for vehicle and powertrain selection, study charging decision behavior, and optimize for charging station placement. AutonomieAI is the result of large neural network based model architectures, trained on very large and unique high fidelity vehicle simulation data. It is lightweight, deployable, efficient and has accuracy comparable to specialized and complex physics based simulation softwares.

Autonomie↗

DOE OSTI2023

Growth phase estimation for abundant bacterial populations sampled longitudinally from human stool metagenomes

Longitudinal sampling of the stool has yielded important insights into the ecological dynamics of the human gut microbiome. However, human stool samples are available approximately once per day, while commensal population doubling times are likely on the order of minutes-to-hours. Despite this mismatch in timescales, much of the prior work on human gut microbiome time series modeling has assumed that day-to-day fluctuations in taxon abundances are related to population growth or death rates, which is likely not the case. Here, we propose an alternative model of the human gut as a stationary system, where population dynamics occur internally and the bacterial population sizes measured in a bolus of stool represent a steady-state endpoint of these dynamics. We formalize this idea as stochastic logistic growth. We show how this model provides a path toward estimating the growth phases of gut bacterial populations in situ. We validate our model predictions using an in vitro Escherichia coli growth experiment. Finally, we show how this method can be applied to densely-sampled human stool metagenomic time series data. We discuss how these growth phase estimates may be used to better inform metabolic modeling in flow-through ecosystems, like animal guts or industrial bioreactors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Accretion onto a Supermassive Black Hole Binary before Merger

While supermassive binary black holes (SMBBHs) inspiral toward merger they may also accrete matter from a surrounding disk. To study the dynamics of this system requires simultaneously describing the evolving spacetime and the magnetized plasma. We present the first relativistic calculation simulating two equal-mass, nonspinning black holes as they inspiral from a 20 M (G = c = 1) initial separation almost to merger. Our results imply important observational consequences: for instance, the accretion rate $\dot{M}$ onto the black holes first decreases and then plateaus, dropping by only a factor of ~3 despite the rapid inspiral. An estimated bolometric light curve follows the same profile, suggesting some merging SMBBHs may be significantly luminous past the predicted circumbinary disk decoupling. The minidisks are nonstandard: Reynolds, not Maxwell, stresses dominate, and they oscillate between two states. In one part of the cycle, "sloshing" streams transfer mass between minidisks, carrying kinetic energy at a rate sometimes as high as the peak minidisk bolometric luminosity. We also discover that episodic accretion drives time-varying minidisk tilts. These complex dynamics all contribute to unique cyclical behavior in the light curves of late-time inspiraling SMBBHs. The poloidal magnetic flux on the black holes is roughly constant at a dimensionless level $\phi$ ~ 2–3, but doubles just before merger; for significant black hole spin, this flux predicts powerful jets with variability driven by binary dynamics, another potentially unique electromagnetic signature. This simulation is the first to employ our multipatch infrastructure PATCHWORK MHD, decreasing the computational expense to ~3% of conventional single-grid methods' cost.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2007

Nonequilibrium Stagnation-Line Radiative Heating for Fire II

This paper presents a detailed analysis of the shock-layer radiative heating to the Fire II vehicle using a new air radiation model and a viscous shock-layer flowfield model. This new air radiation model contains the most up-to-date properties for modeling the atomic-line, atomic photoionization, molecular band, and non-Boltzmann processes. The applied viscous shock-layer flowfield analysis contains the same thermophysical properties and nonequilibrium models as the LAURA Navier-Stokes code. Radiation-flowfield coupling, or radiation cooling, is accounted for in detail in this study. It is shown to reduce the radiative heating by about 30% for the peak radiative heating points, while reducing the convective heating only slightly. A detailed review of past Fire II radiative heating studies is presented. It is observed that the scatter in the radiation predicted by these past studies is mostly a result of the different flowfield chemistry models and the treatment of the electronic state populations. The present predictions provide, on average throughout the trajectory, a better comparison with Fire II flight data than any previous study. The magnitude of the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) contribution to the radiative flux is estimated from the calorimeter measurements. This is achieved using the radiometer measurements and the predicted convective heating. The VUV radiation predicted by the present model agrees well with the VUV contribution inferred from the Fire II calorimeter measurement, although only when radiation-flowfield coupling is accounted for. This agreement provides evidence that the present model accurately models the VUV radiation, which is shown to contribute significantly to the Fire II radiative heating.

Johnston, Christopher O.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Orion Parachute Riser Cutter Development

This paper presents the tests and analytical approach used on the development of a steel riser cutter for the CEV Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) used on the Orion crew module. Figure 1 shows the riser cutter and the steel riser bundle which consists of six individual cables. Due to the highly compressed schedule, initial unavailability of the riser material and the Orion Forward Bay mechanical constraints, JSC primarily relied on a combination of internal ballistics analysis and LS-DYNA simulation for this project. Various one dimensional internal ballistics codes that use standard equation of state and conservation of energy have commonly used in the development of CAD devices for initial first order estimates and as an enhancement to the test program. While these codes are very accurate for propellant performance prediction, they usually lack a fully defined kinematic model for dynamic predictions. A simple piston device can easily and accurately be modeled using an equation of motion. However, the accuracy of analytical models is greatly reduced on more complicated devices with complex external loads, nonlinear trajectories or unique unlocking features. A 3D finite element model of CAD device with all critical features included can vastly improve the analytical ballistic predictions when it is used as a supplement to the ballistic code. During this project, LS-DYNA structural 3D model was used to predict the riser resisting load that was needed for the ballistic code. A Lagrangian model with eroding elements shown in Figure 2 was used for the blade, steel riser and the anvil. The riser material failure strain was fine tuned by matching the dent depth on the anvil with the actual test data. LS-DYNA model was also utilized to optimize the blade tip design for the most efficient cut. In parallel, the propellant type and the amount were determined by using CADPROG internal ballistics code. Initial test results showed a good match with LS-DYNA and CADPROG simulations. Final paper will present a detailed roadmap from initial ballistic modeling and LS-DYNA simulation to the performance testing. Blade shape optimization study will also be presented.

Oguz, Sirri↗

DOE OSTI2021

HyPerPy (Hydrogen Extraction and Parabolic Trough Plant Performance Models using Python) [SWR-21-53]

The HyPerPy package consists of three scripts: 1) Model for Hydrogen Tracking in Parabolic Trough Power Plants, 2) Model for Receiver Performance, and 3) Model for Hydrogen Extraction Process. The power plant model (1) tracks hydrogen generation and transport within the circulating heat transfer fluid (HTF) of the power plant. This script is a transient, initial value simulation, in which the hydrogen concentration in the circulating HTF is 0 moles per cubic meter everywhere at time 0 seconds. Hydrogen concentration is calculated at discrete locations within the circulating HTF with 4-second time resolution. During each time step, the change in hydrogen concentration due to hydrogen generation and permeation is calculated for each location according to the local HTF temperature, vessel or piping properties, hydrogen concentration and partial pressure. This model predicts hourly hydrogen concentrations for typical operating days in the spring, summer, fall, and winter seasons. Data is used to create hourly mappings of hydrogen concentrations for a typical operating year. The receiver model (2) uses a 1-hour time step to estimate getter loading and annulus pressure. For each time step, the model uses HTF and ambient temperature data to estimate absorber tube, bellows, and getter temperatures for the time step. In addition, the model uses hourly HTF hydrogen concentrations that are generated by the power plant model (1), and annulus hydrogen pressure from the previous time step. With these data, the model calculates the moles of hydrogen permeating across the absorber tube and bellows during the time step. The net change in moles hydrogen is added or subtracted from the getter loading for the previous time step, and the hydrogen pressure is re-calculated based on getter loading and temperature. The model uses this algorithm to simulate hydrogen permeation and loading 24 hours per day, 365 days per year using seasonal temperature data. The model repeats these calculations for 25 years to create a mapping of receiver getter loading and annulus hydrogen pressure for four seasons of each year. The model for hydrogen extraction (3) estimates hydrogen extraction rates for a specific separation module configuration. The rate depends primarily on membrane area, vacuum pump performance, headspace gas flowrate to the membrane, and headspace gas hydrogen partial pressure. This model has two versions. The steady-state version predicts hydrogen extraction rates when the module is operating in separation mode. The dynamic version predicts hydrogen transfer through the membrane when the module is operating in sensor mode. The steady-state version is used with the plant model (1) to predict hydrogen partial pressures in the power plant when the extraction process is operating.

Glatzmaier, Gregory↗

DOE OSTI2024

Edgewise Structural Damping of a 2.8-MW Land-Based Wind Turbine Rotor Blade

Modern wind turbines push the predictive capabilities of state-of-the-art aero-servo-elastic tools. The existing limitations hide across the numerical tool chain and can result in serious issues, such as missing aeroelastic instabilities during the design phase. Structural damping is an input that is usually hard to estimate, but also has a major impact on the turbine behavior. In this paper, we discuss an experiment that aims to accurately quantify the structural damping characterizing the edgewise modes of modern wind turbine blades. The experiment is carried out on a 2.8-MW land-based wind turbine and features a fast yaw actuation that induces an edgewise motion on one of the three blades. The Covariant-subspace system identification (Cov-SSI) method is then used to post-process the blade root moment to estimate the short-term edgewise structural damping. Despite limitations of the Cov-SSI method, which consistently under-predicts the absolute values of damping, we observe that structural damping decreases across the first three blade edgewise modes, which is different from the stiffness-proportional damping model that assumes that structural damping increases with the modes. This paper argues that a stiffness-proportional damping model, which is implemented in most aeroelastic tools, is therefore not conservative and might hide aeroelastic instabilities that can instead appear in the field.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Energy Northwest - Horn Rapids Solar and Storage: An Assessment of Battery Technical Performance

Chartered in 1957 as a joint action agency of the state, Energy Northwest (ENW) is a consortium of 27 public utility districts and municipalities across Washington state. ENW takes advantage of economies of scale and shared services to help utilities run their operations more efficiently and at lower cost, to the benefit of more than 1.5 million customers. ENW develops, owns, and operates a diverse mix of electricity generating resources, including hydro, solar, and wind projects – and the Northwest’s only active nuclear energy facility. These projects provide enough reliable, affordable, and environmentally responsible energy to power more than a million homes each year, and that carbon-free electricity is provided at the cost of generation. The agency continually explores new generation projects to meet its members’ needs. In 2017, as part of the second round of funding from the Washington state Clean Energy Fund, the Washington State Department of Commerce granted up to $3 million in matching funds to develop an estimated $6.5 million project that deployed a 4-MW, 20-acre solar generating array of photovoltaic (PV) panels coupled with a 1 MW/5.5 MWh lithium-iron-phosphate battery energy storage system (BESS) in Richland, Washington. The combination of PV and BESS will provide a predictable, renewable generating source and will also serve as a training ground for solar and battery technicians throughout the nation. The City of Richland will purchase the power from the project and utilize the benefits of the energy storage. The project provides Washington state with its first opportunity to integrate a large-scale solar and storage facility into its clean mix of hydro, nuclear, and wind resources. This first-of-its-kind facility combines solar generation with battery storage and technician training. In 2019, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) worked with ENW to assess the integrated PV and BESS in representative use cases that could benefit the City of Richland. Between March and May 2022, extensive testing was conducted, and the results were used to assess the technical performance of the BESS subjected to actual field operations. Both reference performance and use case tests were performed: (A) Reference performance tests assess the general technical capabilities of the BESS, such as energy capacity, round-trip efficiency (RTE), ramp rate, and signal tracking capability. These are the first tests performed (baseline), and they are repeated after use case tests (post cycle). A standardized U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) energy storage performance protocol was used to characterize the BESS, including representative duty cycle profiles, test procedure guidance, and calculation guidance for determining key characteristics. (B) Use case tests examine the performance of the BESS for specific use cases using duty cycles developed by PNNL in collaboration with ENW. Five use cases were selected for testing: 1) demand charge reduction, 2) load shaping, 3) transmission charge reduction, 4) Volt-VAR service, and 5) outage mitigation. The use case duty cycles were developed based on utility and site-specific characteristics in addition to the technical characteristics and physical capabilities of the BESS. Use case tests were performed between the baseline and post cycle tests. This report describes the BESS and its components, presents testing and performance analysis results, and shares key insights and lessons learned from this project. Outcomes of the tests and analyses will help ENW understand the performance of the Horn Rapids BESS in its current state and design appropriate operational strategies for this and other BESSs over the long term.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dilated causal convolutional neural networks for forecasting zone airflow to estimate short-term energy consumption

Here this paper investigates the use of dilated causal convolutional neural networks for fine- grained temporal forecasting of building zone states. Specifically, we build and evaluate models using a small set of exogenous features (e.g., external temperature) to autoregressively predict zone airflow setpoints every minute for a 24-hour prediction window. We carefully explore the trade-off between generality and specificity in these models, training and evaluating them based on zone, zone type, month, season, and combinations thereof. When evaluated for a commercial office building in Eastern Washington with 16 zones served by variable air volume air handling units, we find that the highest performance comes from a zone-specific, season-agnostic approach; with it, we obtain an R 2 of 0.704 (averaged over zones) and an average normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) of 0.111. In contrast, the most general model (trained across all zones and seasons) yields an R 2 of only 0.416 and a nRMSE of 0.168, while a baseline zone-specific reduced order model obtains 0.443 R 2 and 0.159 nRMSE. We also report on factors affecting airflow forecasting performance, on the ability of models trained on a specific zone to generalize to other zones, and on the capability of those models trained on a specific month to generalize to other months.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗