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At least 469 records · Page 26

Mapping the global distribution of C 4 vegetation using observations and optimality theory

Plants with the C 4 photosynthesis pathway typically respond to climate change differently from more common C 3 -type plants, due to their distinct anatomical and biochemical characteristics. These different responses are expected to drive changes in global C 4 and C 3 vegetation distributions. However, current C 4 vegetation distribution models may not predict this response as they do not capture multiple interacting factors and often lack observational constraints. Here, we used global observations of plant photosynthetic pathways, satellite remote sensing, and photosynthetic optimality theory to produce an observation-constrained global map of C 4 vegetation. We find that global C 4 vegetation coverage decreased from 17.7% to 17.1% of the land surface during 2001 to 2019. This was the net result of a reduction in C 4 natural grass cover due to elevated CO 2 favoring C 3 -type photosynthesis, and an increase in C 4 crop cover, mainly from corn (maize) expansion. Using an emergent constraint approach, we estimated that C 4 vegetation contributed 19.5% of global photosynthetic carbon assimilation, a value within the range of previous estimates (18–23%) but higher than the ensemble mean of dynamic global vegetation models (14 ± 13%; mean ± one standard deviation). Our study sheds insight on the critical and underappreciated role of C 4 plants in the contemporary global carbon cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Efficient mapping between void shapes and stress fields using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks with sparse data

Establishing fast and accurate structure-to-property relationships is an important component in the design and discovery of advanced materials. Physics-based simulation models like the finite element method (FEM) are often used to predict deformation, stress, and strain fields as a function of material microstructure in material and structural systems. Such models may be computationally expensive and time intensive if the underlying physics of the system is complex. This limits their application to solve inverse design problems and identify structures that maximize performance. In such scenarios, surrogate models are employed to make the forward mapping computationally efficient to evaluate. However, the high dimensionality of the input microstructure and the output field of interest often renders such surrogate models inefficient, especially when dealing with sparse data. Deep convolutional neural network (CNN) based surrogate models have shown great promise in handling such high-dimensional problems. In this paper, a single ellipsoidal void structure under a uniaxial tensile load represented by a linear elastic, high-dimensional and expensive-to-query, FEM model. We consider two deep CNN architectures, a modified convolutional autoencoder framework with a fully connected bottleneck and a UNet CNN, and compare their accuracy in predicting the von Mises stress field for any given input void shape in the FEM model. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis study is performed using the two approaches, where the variation in the prediction accuracy on unseen test data is studied through numerical experiments by varying the number of training samples from 20 to 100.

surrogate modeling; convolutional neural networks;↗

Accounting for Training Data Error in Machine Learning Applied to Earth Observations

Remote sensing, or Earth Observation (EO), is increasingly used to understand Earth system dynamics and create continuous and categorical maps of biophysical properties and land cover, especially based on recent advances in machine learning (ML). ML models typically require large, spatially explicit training datasets to make accurate predictions. Training data (TD) are typically generated by digitizing polygons on high spatial-resolution imagery, by collecting in situ data, or by using pre-existing datasets. TD are often assumed to accurately represent the truth, but in practice almost always have error, stemming from (1) sample design, and (2) sample collection errors. The latter is particularly relevant for image-interpreted TD, an increasingly commonly used method due to its practicality and the increasing training sample size requirements of modern ML algorithms. TD errors can cause substantial errors in the maps created using ML algorithms, which may impact map use and interpretation. Despite these potential errors and their real-world consequences for map-based decisions, TD error is often not accounted for or reported in EO research. Here we review the current practices for collecting and handling TD. We identify the sources of TD error, and illustrate their impacts using several case studies representing different EO applications (infrastructure mapping, global surface flux estimates, and agricultural monitoring), and provide guidelines for minimizing and accounting for TD errors. To harmonize terminology, we distinguish TD from three other classes of data that should be used to create and assess ML models: training reference data, used to assess the quality of TD during data generation; validation data, used to iteratively improve models; and map reference data, used only for final accuracy assessment. We focus primarily on TD, but our advice is generally applicable to all four classes, and we ground our review in established best practices for map accuracy assessment literature. EO researchers should start by determining the tolerable levels of map error and appropriate error metrics. Next, TD error should be minimized during sample design by choosing a representative spatio-temporal collection strategy, by using spatially and temporally relevant imagery and ancillary data sources during TD creation, and by selecting a set of legend definitions supported by the data. Furthermore, TD error can be minimized during the collection of individual samples by using consensus-based collection strategies, by directly comparing interpreted training observations against expert-generated training reference data to derive TD error metrics, and by providing image interpreters with thorough application-specific training. We strongly advise that TD error is incorporated in model outputs, either directly in bias and variance estimates or, at a minimum, by documenting the sources and implications of error. TD should be fully documented and made available via an open TD repository, allowing others to replicate and assess its use. To guide researchers in this process, we propose three tiers of TD error accounting standards. Finally, we advise researchers to clearly communicate the magnitude and impacts of TD error on map outputs, with specific consideration given to the likely map audience.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Applying machine learning and quantum chemistry to predict the glass transition temperatures of polymers

Glass transition temperature (T g ) is important for understanding the physical and mechanical properties of a polymer material because it relates to the thermal energy required to transition between a hard glassy state and a soft rubbery one. Over the years, various models have been developed for predicting this thermal property from molecular structure to aid in designing novel polymers in selected classes. This work builds on those efforts by utilizing both machine learning (ML) and quantum chemistry (QC) techniques to develop models that can predict T g values from the molecular structure under different data availability scenarios and for a wide variety of polymer types. For the ML model, a graph convolutional network (GCN) was used to map topological polymer features; this model was trained against a dataset of more than 7500 T g values and resulted in a root mean square error (RMSE) of 38.1 °C. The QC-based regression model was trained on 83 T g values and produced an RMSE of 34.5 °C. In conclusion, this work demonstrated that while both model techniques produce accurate predictions and are suitable for different data availability scenarios, the QC-based regression model offered a more interpretable model framework with significantly less training data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A machine learning estimator trained on synthetic data for real-time earthquake ground-shaking predictions in Southern California

Abstract After large-magnitude earthquakes, a crucial task for impact assessment is to rapidly and accurately estimate the ground shaking in the affected region. To satisfy real-time constraints, intensity measures are traditionally evaluated with empirical Ground Motion Models that can drastically limit the accuracy of the estimated values. As an alternative, here we present Machine Learning strategies trained on physics-based simulations that require similar evaluation times. We trained and validated the proposed Machine Learning-based Estimator for ground shaking maps with one of the largest existing datasets (<100M simulated seismograms) from CyberShake developed by the Southern California Earthquake Center covering the Los Angeles basin. For a well-tailored synthetic database, our predictions outperform empirical Ground Motion Models provided that the events considered are compatible with the training data. Using the proposed strategy we show significant error reductions not only for synthetic, but also for five real historical earthquakes, relative to empirical Ground Motion Models.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Using Atom Dynamics to Map the Defect Structure Around an Impurity in Nano-Hematite

The geochemical cycling of actinides such as U is strongly controlled by Fe (oxyhydr)oxides. Indeed, the strong affinity of these minerals for U has factored into the design of geologic repositories for the long-term storage of nuclear waste. Many decades of work have focused on detailing the local coordination environment U associated with hematite (a-Fe2O3), a common and stable Fe(III) oxide, in order to better predict the fate and transport of U in the sub-surface. Here, for the first time, molecular dynamic simulations and atomically resolved electron microscopy of uranium atom mobility under the beam were used to map the topology of defect clusters surrounding structurally incorporated U in hematite. The ability to observe vacancies by means of metal atom hopping can be used to directly probe defects in other materials, with promising applications in geochemistry and materials science.

Ilton, Eugene S.↗

Next generation Arctic vegetation maps: Aboveground plant biomass and woody dominance mapped at 30 m resolution across the tundra biome

The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, placing tundra ecosystems at the forefront of global climate change. Plant biomass is a fundamental ecosystem attribute that is sensitive to changes in climate, closely tied to ecological function, and crucial for constraining ecosystem carbon dynamics. However, the amount, functional composition, and distribution of plant biomass are only coarsely quantified across the Arctic. Therefore, we developed the first moderate resolution (30 m) maps of live aboveground plant biomass (g m −2 ) and woody plant dominance (%) for the Arctic tundra biome, including the mountainous Oro Arctic. We modeled biomass for the year 2020 using a new synthesis dataset of field biomass harvest measurements, Landsat satellite seasonal synthetic composites, ancillary geospatial data, and machine learning models. Additionally, we quantified pixel-wise uncertainty in biomass predictions using Monte Carlo simulations and validated the models using a robust, spatially blocked and nested cross-validation procedure. Observed plant and woody plant biomass values ranged from 0 to ∼6000 g m −2 (mean ≈ 350 g m −2 ), while predicted values ranged from 0 to ∼4000 g m −2 (mean ≈ 275 g m −2 ), resulting in model validation root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) ≈ 400 g m −2 and R 2 ≈ 0.6. Our maps not only capture large-scale patterns of plant biomass and woody plant dominance across the Arctic that are linked to climatic variation (e.g., thawing degree days), but also illustrate how fine-scale patterns are shaped by local surface hydrology, topography, and past disturbance. By providing data on plant biomass across Arctic tundra ecosystems at the highest resolution to date, our maps can significantly advance research and inform decision-making on topics ranging from Arctic vegetation monitoring and wildlife conservation to carbon accounting and land surface modeling.

Climate change↗

Development and Integration of Predictive Models for Manufacturing and Structural Performance of Carbon Fiber Composites in Automotive Applications (Final Report)

The goal of this project is to develop integrated, state-of-the-art, computational modeling tools based on an integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) methodology that are critically needed to enable structural carbon fiber (CF) applications in automobiles. These tools are designed to predict the manufacturing and structural performance of CF composites, including stochastic effects. During the first phase of the project, the manufacturing and structural performance tools, including a stochastic driver, were developed, calibrated, and validated against coupon and component level test results. For this project, from the manufacturing side, the development efforts were focused on high-pressure resin transfer molding (HP-RTM), a potentially game-changing manufacturing technology that is capable of reaching the 3-5-minute cycle time that is necessary for volume manufacturing of composites. On the structural performance side, the crashworthiness of CF structures was studied. Accordingly, computational tools were developed and validated. The resulting differences between the numerical predictions and the experimental results in the first phase of the project were required to be less than 15%. During the second phase of the project, the manufacturing and performance tools were integrated by mapping the manufacturing outcomes (e.g., fiber angles, residual stresses, degree of cure, and defects) into the structural models. Also, using the tools developed in this project, an automotive assembly currently manufactured in steel (2016 GM Malibu) was redesigned to be manufactured using advanced CF composites with the objective of comparing the performance of the CF assembly with the developed ICME model predictions. The weight, performance and cost of the CF assembly were compared with the baseline steel assembly as well. The CF underbody design was shown to be 30% lighter than the corresponding steel design. The CF underbody assembly withstood the side pole impact with less than half the intrusion for the steel assembly. Excellent correlations within 10% for both peak impact load and intrusion were observed between the numerical predictions and experimental results. Based on the cost models developed in the project, the cost increase per Kg saved was determined to be $22. The project team has prepared a total of 28 publications in various journals and conferences and broadly communicated the project results for the benefit of the composite industry. The project team has also prepared a total of 10 patent applications that were submitted to the US Patent and Trademark office.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Interfacial Atomistic Mechanisms of Lithium Metal Stripping and Plating in Solid–State Batteries

All-solid-state batteries based on a Li metal anode represent a promising next-generation energy storage system, but are currently limited by low current density and short cycle life. Further research to improve the Li metal anode is impeded by the lack of understanding in its failure mechanisms at lithium–solid interfaces, in particular, the fundamental atomistic processes responsible for interface failure. Here, using large-scale molecular dynamics simulations, the first atomistic modeling study of lithium stripping and plating on a solid electrolyte is performed by explicitly considering key fundamental atomistic processes and interface atomistic structures. In the simulations, the interface failure initiated with the formation of nano-sized pores, and how interface structures, lithium diffusion, adhesion energy, and applied pressure affect interface failure during Li cycling are observed. By systematically varying the parameters of solid-state lithium cells in the simulations, the parameter space of applied pressures and interfacial adhesion energies that inhibit interface failure during cycling are mapped to guide selection of solid-state cells. Furthermore, this study establishes the atomistic modeling for Li stripping and plating, and predicts optimal solid interfaces and new strategies for the future research and development of solid-state Li-metal batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Systematic analysis of melt pool dynamics in laser processing of mixed powder feedstocks

Functionally graded materials (FGMs) fabricated via additive manufacturing of blended powders offer the potential to spatially tailor properties for new technologies, such as fusion first-wall systems, turbine blades, and spacecraft. However, processing these materials is difficult due to the multiplicity of processing parameters to optimize, all of which must be changed as substrate material, powder feedstock compositions, and melt pool dynamics evolve. Here, this work systematically evaluates the qualitative and quantitative effects of these variables on the melt pool size, shape, composition, and particle distribution in an exemplar Ti-Ta system, and connects the experimental results to Marangoni flow behavior and phenomena observed in other systems. Increasing laser power linearly increases melt pool size and layer thickness, driving engineering considerations such as part/geometrical tolerances. Decreasing laser velocity changes the melt pool shape from lenticular to convex and reduces chemical homogeneity due to extreme thermal and compositional gradients between the melt pool center and boundaries. Thermophysical property differences between the powder feedstock and substrate material, as well as the directionality of the gradient, affect dilution and melt pool dynamics, which in turn affect the melt pool boundary characteristics, shape, and uniformity. Mixed powder feedstocks of intermediate compositions do not behave according to linear interpolations between single-material endpoints, instead building taller and wider melt pools. As such, it is recommended to quantify process maps for at least one intermediate composition in the FGM or multi-material system of interest to ensure optimized processing parameters, predictable melt pool sizes and shapes, and compositional and spatial precision.

Dissimilar↗

Sensor response and radiation damage effects for 3D pixels in the ATLAS IBL Detector

Pixel sensors in 3D technology equip the outer ends of the staves of the Insertable B Layer (IBL), the innermost layer of the ATLAS Pixel Detector, which was installed before the start of LHC Run 2 in 2015. 3D pixel sensors are expected to exhibit more tolerance to radiation damage and are the technology of choice for the innermost layer in the ATLAS tracker upgrade for the HL-LHC programme. While the LHC has delivered an integrated luminosity of ≃ 235 fb -1 since the start of Run 2, the 3D sensors have received a non-ionising energy deposition corresponding to a fluence of ≃ 8.5 × 10 14 1 MeV neutron-equivalent cm -2 averaged over the sensor area. This paper presents results of measurements of the 3D pixel sensors' response during Run 2 and the first two years of Run 3, with predictions of its evolution until the end of Run 3 in 2025. Data are compared with radiation damage simulations, based on detailed maps of the electric field in the Si substrate, at various fluence levels and bias voltage values. These results illustrate the potential of 3D technology for pixel applications in high-radiation

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A temporal hierarchy underpins the transcription factor–DNA interactome of the maize UPR

Adverse environmental conditions reduce crop productivity and often increase the load of unfolded or misfolded proteins in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER). This potentially lethal condition, known as ER stress, is buffered by the unfolded protein response (UPR), a set of signaling pathways designed to either recover ER functionality or ignite programmed cell death. Despite the biological significance of the UPR to the life of the organism, the regulatory transcriptional landscape underpinning ER stress management is largely unmapped, especially in crops. To fill this significant knowledge gap, we performed a large–scale systems–level analysis of the protein–DNA interaction (PDI) network in maize (Zea mays). Using 23 promoter fragments of six UPR marker genes in a high–throughput enhanced yeast one–hybrid assay, we identified a highly interconnected network of 262 transcription factors (TFs) associated with significant biological traits and 831 PDIs underlying the UPR. We established a temporal hierarchy of TF binding to gene promoters within the same family as well as across different families of TFs. Cistrome analysis revealed the dynamic activities of a variety of cis–regulatory elements (CREs) in ER stress–responsive gene promoters. By integrating the cistrome results into a TF network analysis, we mapped a subnetwork of TFs associated with a CRE that may contribute to UPR management. Lastly, we validated the role of a predicted network hub gene using the Arabidopsis system. The PDIs, TF networks, and CREs identified in our work are foundational resources for understanding transcription–regulatory mechanisms in the stress responses and crop improvement.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Targeted Adaptive Design

Modern advanced manufacturing and advanced materials design often require searches of relatively high-dimensional process control parameter spaces for settings that result in optimal structure, property, and performance parameters. The mapping from the former to the latter must be determined from noisy experiments or from expensive simulations. Here, we abstract this problem to a mathematical framework in which an unknown function from a control space to a design space must be ascertained by means of expensive noisy measurements, which locate control settings generating desired design features within specified tolerances, with quantified uncertainty. We describe targeted adaptive design (TAD), a new algorithm that performs this sampling task efficiently. TAD creates a Gaussian process surrogate model of the unknown mapping at each iterative stage, proposing a new batch of control settings to sample experimentally and optimizing the updated expected log-predictive probability density of the target design. TAD either stops upon locating a solution with uncertainties that fit inside the tolerance box or uses a measure of expected future information to determine that the search space has been exhausted with no solution. TAD thus embodies the exploration-exploitation tension in a manner that recalls, but is essentially different from, Bayesian optimization and optimal experimental design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Prediction and compression of lattice QCD data using machine learning algorithms on quantum annealer

We present regression and compression algorithms for lattice QCD data utilizing the efficient binary optimization ability of quantum annealers. In the regression algorithm, we encode the correlation between the input and output variables into a sparse coding machine learning algorithm. The trained correlation pattern is used to predict lattice QCD observables of unseen lattice configurations from other observables measured on the lattice. In the compression algorithm, we define a mapping from lattice QCD data of floating-point numbers to the binary coefficients that closely reconstruct the input data from a set of basis vectors. Since the reconstruction is not exact, the mapping defines a lossy compression, but, a reasonably small number of binary coefficients are able to reconstruct the input vector of lattice QCD data with the reconstruction error much smaller than the statistical fluctuation. In both applications, we use D-Wave quantum annealers to solve the NP-hard binary optimization problems of the machine learning algorithms.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Spatial Mapping of Riverbed Grain-Size Distribution Using Machine Learning

Recent alluvial sediments in riverbeds play a significant role in controlling hydrologic exchange flows (HEFs) in river systems. The alluvial layer is usually associated with strong heterogeneity in physical properties (e.g., permeability and hydraulic conductivity), which affects local HEFs and therefore biogeochemical processes. The spatial distribution of these physical properties needs to be determined to inform the numerical models used to reveal the realistic hydro-biogeochemical behaviors. Such information can be obtained based on the intrinsic link between sediment grain-size distribution and hydraulic properties where sediment texture information is available. However, grain-size measurements are usually spatially sparse and do not have adequate coverage and resolution, particularly for a relatively large domain such as the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River. In this paper, we adopted machine learning (ML) approaches for categorizing and mapping the spatial distributions of riverbed substrate grain size and filling in missing areas of substrate data using the ML models along the reach. Such ML models for substrate size mapping were trained at 13,372 locations using measured substrate sizes along with observed and simulated attributes, including bathymetric attributes (e.g., elevation, slope, and aspect ratio) from LIDAR and bathymetric surveys, and hydrodynamic properties (e.g., water depth, velocity, shear stress, and their statistical moments). An ensemble bagging-based ML technique, Random Forest, was adopted to identify the most influential factors as predictors to develop the predictive models with over-fitting issues addressed. The models were evaluated with respect to each individual substrate size class and the lumped group, and then used to generate the final substrate size maps covering all the grid cells in the numerical modeling domain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Identifying Hot Spots and Hot Moments of Metabolic Activity in Salt Marsh Sediments through BONCAT-FISH Microscale Mapping (Final Technical Report)

Understanding the biogeography and timing of microbial metabolic activity is a key priority for microbial ecologists. With such knowledge, the cumulative biogeochemical contributions of microbial communities become more predictable, and our ability to both understand the effects of environmental change on microbial activity and build synthetic communities with desired functions will increase substantially. In this project, we advanced this broad, ambitious goal in two substantial ways: we developed a multiplexed Fluorescence In Situ Hybridization (FISH) approach that links microbial identity with metabolic function, and we established a novel Bio-Orthogonal Non-Canonical Amino acid Tagging (BONCAT) technique that can resolve the timing of anabolic activity, providing new resolution of when microbial constituents are growing. We deployed both of these techniques in multiple environmental settings to demonstrate their versatility. At the Little Sippewissett Salt Marsh, we combined a novel dual-BONCAT technique with fluorescence activated cell sorting to determine which population of cells was metabolically active during the day and which was active during the night. We found that Methylobacterium was active during daylight hours, potentially feeding on carbon-rich molecules released from plant roots. Sulfur-cycling microbes dominate the population active during the dark night-time hours. Overall, the work conducted under the auspices of this project developed two promising new techniques for identifying the “hot spots” and “hot moments” of microbial activity in complex communities with taxonomic and functional resolution. We focused largely on a salt marsh sediment context, but are confident that microbial ecologists seeking to understand the microbial role in biogeochemical cycles in a wide range of settings will find our newly developed techniques useful in future work.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Identification of a Fusarium ear rot resistance gene in maize by QTL mapping and RNA sequencing

Fusarium ear rot (FER) caused by Fusarium verticillioides is a prevalent maize disease. To comprehensively characterize the genetic basis of the natural variation in FER resistance, a recombinant inbred line (RIL) population was used to map quantitative trait loci (QTL) for FER resistance. A total of 17 QTL were identified by linkage mapping in eight environments. These QTL were located on six chromosomes and explained 3.88–15.62% of the total phenotypic variation. Moreover, qFER1.03 had the strongest effect and accounted for 4.98–15.62% of the phenotypic variation according to analyses of multiple environments involving best linear unbiased predictions. The chromosome segment substitution lines (CSSLs) derived from a cross between Qi319 (donor parent) and Ye478 (recurrent parent) were used to verify the contribution of qFER1.03 to FER resistance. The line CL171, which harbored an introgressed qFER1.03 , was significantly resistant to FER. Further fine mapping of qFER1.03 revealed that the resistance QTL was linked to insertion/deletion markers InDel 8 and InDel 2, with physical distances of 43.55 Mb and 43.76 Mb, respectively. Additionally, qFER1.03 differed from the previous resistance QTL on chromosome 1. There were three annotated genes in this region. On the basis of the RNA-seq data, which revealed the genes differentially expressed between the FER-resistant Qi319 and susceptible Ye478, GRMZM2G017792 (MPK3) was preliminarily identified as a candidate gene in the qFER1.03 region. The Pr-CMV-VIGS system was used to decrease the GRMZM2G017792 expression level in CL171 by 34–57%, which led to a significant decrease in FER resistance. Using RIL and CSSL populations combined with RNA-seq and Pr-CMV-VIGS, the candidate gene can be dissected effectively, which provided important gene resource for breeding FER-resistant varieties.

Xia, Yusheng↗

Bringing 2D Eclipse Mapping out of the Shadows with Leave-one-out Cross Validation

Abstract Eclipse mapping is a technique for inferring 2D brightness maps of transiting exoplanets from the shape of an eclipse light curve. With JWST’s unmatched precision, eclipse mapping is now possible for a large number of exoplanets. However, eclipse mapping has only been applied to two planets, and the nuances of fitting eclipse maps are not yet fully understood. Here, we use Leave-one-out Cross Validation (LOO-CV) to investigate eclipse mapping, with application to a JWST NIRISS/SOSS observation of the ultrahot Jupiter WASP-18b. LOO-CV is a technique that provides insight into the out-of-sample predictive power of models on a data-point-by-data-point basis. We show that constraints on planetary brightness patterns behave as expected, with large-scale variations driven by the phase-curve variation in the light curve and smaller-scale structures constrained by the eclipse ingress and egress. For WASP-18b we show that the need for higher model complexity (smaller-scale features) is driven exclusively by the shape of the eclipse ingress and egress. We use LOO-CV to investigate the relationship between planetary brightness map components when mapping under a positive-flux constraint to better understand the need for complex models. Finally, we use LOO-CV to understand the degeneracy between the competing “hot spot” and “plateau” brightness map models of WASP-18b, showing that the plateau model is driven by the ingress shape and the hot spot model is driven by the egress shape, but preference for neither model is due to outliers or unmodeled signals. Based on this analysis, we make recommendations for the use of LOO-CV in future eclipse-mapping studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗