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At least 469 records · Page 26

Report on local data recovery approaches suitable for weather and climate prediction (Deliverable 1.3) (V.1.0)

Numerical weather and climate prediction rates as one of the scientific applications whose accuracy improvements greatly depend on the growth of the available computing power. As the number of cores in top computing facilities pushes into the millions, increasing average frequency of hardware and software failures forces users to review their algorithms and systems in order to protect simulations from breakdown. This report surveys approaches for fault-tolerance in numerical algorithms and system resilience in parallel simulations from the perspective of numerical weather and climate prediction systems. A selection of existing strategies is analyzed, featuring interpolation-restart and compressed checkpointing for the numerics, in-memory checkpointing, user-level failure mitigation-based and backup-based methods for the systems. Numerical examples showcase the performance of the techniques in addressing faults, with particular emphasis on iterative solvers for linear systems, a staple of atmospheric fluid flow solvers. The potential impact of these strategies is discussed in relation to current development of numerical weather prediction algorithms and systems towards the exascale. Trade-offs between performance, efficiency and effectiveness of resiliency strategies are analyzed and some recommendations outlined for future developments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An evaluation of the demand response potential of integrated dynamic window and HVAC systems

Demand response (DR) increases the flexibility and reliability of the electricity grid as use of intermittent renewable energy sources increases. HVAC and envelope DR measures present the largest aggregate energy and peak demand savings potential of all commercial building end uses because their net demand savings occur during critical peak demand periods. Controllable envelope measures include switchable electrochromic windows, operable window attachments such as outdoor louvers, roller shades, and awnings, as well as other innovative facade technologies that can modulate both solar heat gain and daylight admission over a broad solar-optical range. This study evaluated the technical potential of DR-enabled dynamic windows to reduce critical peak demand for a prototypical medium office building situated in all 16 U.S. climates. Model predictive control (MPC) algorithms were designed to minimize electricity cost in daylit perimeter office zones through control of an electrochromic window with and without HVAC thermostat setpoint control. Conventional and time-of-use rates were used to shape the degree of DR. Median annual peak demand savings with window and thermostat control across all climate zones were 24.3 kW (4.4 W/m 2 ) per building or 15.9 W/m 2 for non-north perimeter zones. Resource adequacy at the whole building level was estimated to be 13.1 to 43.4 $/kW per year over the 30-year life of the installation. Co-benefits were increased energy efficiency, and reduced electricity cost and emissions. Visual and thermal comfort requirements were met at all times. Dynamic facades controlled by MPC have substantial technical potential for DR across all U.S. climates and warrant serious consideration for inclusion in DR portfolios.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Diffusion algorithms and data reduction routine for onsite real-time launch predictions for the transport of Delta-Thor exhaust effluents

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Marshall Space Flight Center multilayer diffusion algorithms have been specialized for the prediction of the surface impact for the dispersive transport of the exhaust effluents from the launch of a Delta-Thor vehicle. This specialization permits these transport predictions to be made at the launch range in real time so that the effluent monitoring teams can optimize their monitoring grids. Basically, the data reduction routine requires only the meteorology profiles for the thermodynamics and kinematics of the atmosphere as an input. These profiles are graphed along with the resulting exhaust cloud rise history, the centerline concentrations and dosages, and the hydrogen chloride isopleths.

Stephens, J. B.↗

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗

Energy Prediction under Changed Demand Conditions: Robust Machine Learning Models and Input Feature Combinations

Deciding on a suitable algorithm for energy demand prediction in a building is non-trivial and depends on the availability of data. In this paper we compare four machine learning models, commonly found in the literature, in terms of their generalization performance and in terms of how using different sets of input features affects accuracy. This is tested on a data set where consumption patterns differ significantly between training and evaluation because of the Covid-19 pandemic. We provide a hands-on guide and supply a Python framework for building operators to adapt and use in their applications.

Schranz, Thomas↗

Adaptive behavior and different thermal experiences of real people: A Bayesian neural network approach to thermal preference prediction and classification

Various observed and unquantifiable factors affect the thermal comfort of occupants in indoor environments and can lead to high uncertainty in the prediction and classification of their thermal preferences. The behavioral adaptation of occupants, by operating window systems for example, changes their thermal experience and expectations and therefore contributes to even higher prediction uncertainty. In this study, we applied a Bayesian neural network (BNN) algorithm to build a predictive model for occupant thermal preference using the ASHRAE Global Thermal Comfort Database II. The Bayesian method allows us to synthesize prior knowledge and available measurements into a unified modeling framework. It also offers a way to express and quantify uncertainty. Here we have performed a systematic study to test the efficiency and robustness of different BNN model configurations. In this study, the results show that the BNN model outperforms conventional thermal comfort models such as Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) and adaptive comfort model. The BNN model tends to produce more confident “prefer cooler” predictions with high possibility and low uncertainty. In contrast, the BNN model produces less certain predictions for “prefer no change” and “prefer warmer” across all occupants. Our findings suggest that linking occupants’ subjective evaluation measures and window opening/closing behavior to thermal comfort modeling effectively improves predictive performance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A high-throughput workflow to analyze sequence-conformation relationships and explore hydrophobic patterning in disordered peptoids

Understanding how a macromolecule’s primary sequence governs its conformational landscape is crucial for elucidating its function, yet these design principles are still emerging for macromolecules with intrinsic disorder. Herein, we introduce a high-throughput workflow that implements a practical colorimetric conformational assay, introduces a semi-automated sequencing protocol using matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization and tandem mass spectrometry (MALDI-MS/MS), and develops a generalizable sequence-structure algorithm. Using a model system of 20mer peptidomimetics containing polar glycine and hydrophobic N-butylglycine residues, we identified nine classifications of conformational disorder and isolated 122 unique sequences across varied compositions and conformations. Conformational distributions of three compositionally identical library sequences were corroborated through atomistic simulations and ion mobility spectrometry coupled with liquid chromatography. A data-driven strategy was developed using existing sequence variables and data-derived “motifs” to inform a machine-learning algorithm toward conformation prediction. Here, this multifaceted approach enhances our understanding of sequence-conformation relationships and offers a powerful tool for accelerating the discovery of materials with conformational control.

data-driven analysis↗

Predicting boron coordination in multicomponent borate and borosilicate glasses using analytical models and machine learning

Accurate prediction of boron coordination in multicomponent glasses is critical in glass science and technology as it strongly affects the properties of borate and borosilicate glasses. We have collected a dataset containing 657 glasses from literature with boron coordination values and developed models using analytical functions based on the well accepted Dell, Xiao and Bray model. Good prediction of boron coordination with a R 2 value higher than 0.8 was obtained. The large variation of boron coordination from experiments, originated from sample preparations and characterizations, led to difficulties in obtaining models with better prediction performance. Various machine learning (ML) algorithms were evaluated and slightly better prediction performance was observed; however, interpretation of the ML models is less straight forward. In conclusion, this study developed various models capable of providing quantitative boron coordination predictions, providing insights into its structural roles in multi-component glasses, and suggesting fruitful areas for future research.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Hybrid model predictive control techniques for safety factor profile and stored energy regulation while incorporating NBI constraints

Abstract A novel hybrid Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm has been designed for simultaneous safety factor ( q ) profile and stored energy ( w ) control while incorporating the pulse-width-modulation constraints associated with the neutral beam injection (NBI) system. Regulation of the q -profile has been extensively shown to be a key factor for improved confinement as well as non-inductive sustainment of the plasma current. Simultaneous control of w is necessary to prevent the triggering of pressure-driven magnetohydrodynamic instabilities as the controller shapes the q profile. Conventional MPC schemes proposed for q -profile control have considered the NBI powers as continuous-time signals, ignoring the discrete-time nature of these actuators and leading in some cases to performance loss. The hybrid MPC scheme in this work has the capability of incorporating the discrete-time actuator dynamics as additional constraints. In nonlinear simulations, the proposed hybrid MPC scheme demonstrates improved q -profile+ w control performance for NSTX-U operating scenarios.

Physics↗

Exploring the dependence of gas cooling and heating functions on the incident radiation field with machine learning

ABSTRACT Gas cooling and heating functions play a crucial role in galaxy formation. But, it is computationally expensive to exactly compute these functions in the presence of an incident radiation field. These computations can be greatly sped up by using interpolation tables of pre-computed values, at the expense of making significant and sometimes even unjustified approximations. Here, we explore the capacity of machine learning to approximate cooling and heating functions with a generalized radiation field. Specifically, we use the machine learning algorithm XGBoost to predict cooling and heating functions calculated with the photoionization code cloudy at fixed metallicity, using different combinations of photoionization rates as features. We perform a constrained quadratic fit in metallicity to enable a fair comparison with traditional interpolation methods at arbitrary metallicity. We consider the relative importance of various photoionization rates through both a principal component analysis (PCA) and calculation of SHapley Additive exPlanation (shap) values for our XGBoost models. We use feature importance information to select different subsets of rates to use in model training. Our XGBoost models outperform a traditional interpolation approach at each fixed metallicity, regardless of feature selection. At arbitrary metallicity, we are able to reduce the frequency of the largest cooling and heating function errors compared to an interpolation table. We find that the primary bottleneck to increasing accuracy lies in accurately capturing the metallicity dependence. This study demonstrates the potential of machine learning methods such as XGBoost to capture the non-linear behaviour of cooling and heating functions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Model Based Predictive Control for Frequency Support in Multi-port Autonomous Reconfigurable Solar Plants

Primary frequency support functionality can be an added advantage for any new grid integrated power electronics resource. With increased penetration of power electronics resources, inertial and primary frequency response capabilities are decreasing. In this research paper, an advanced model-based predictive control (MBPC) algorithm for providing frequency support to a new topology of integrated photovoltaic(PV), batterybased energy storage systems (ESS), and high-voltage direct current (HV dc) systems called multi-port autonomus reconfigurable solar (MARS) plants is based on the synchronverter-based control. The simulation of MARS-HV dc system with proposed control strategy is simulated and validated for MARS connected to low short circuit ratio (SCR) grids in PSCAD/EMTDC simulation environment. The control algorithm proposed showcases better performance in terms of frequency nadir improvement and frequency steady state improvemnt with respect to no frequency control.

Marthi, Phani Ratna Vanamali↗

Stochastic Home Energy Management Systems with Varying Controllable Resources

This paper studies the performance of a model predictive control (MPC) algorithm in a home energy management system (HEMS) as the set of controllable resources varies and under both a constant and a time-of-use (TOU) electricity price structure. The set of controllable resources includes residentially-owned photovoltaic (PV) panels, a home battery system (HBS), an electric vehicle (EV), and a home heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system. The HEMS optimally schedules the set of controllable resources given user preferences such as indoor thermal comfort and electricity cost sensitivity. The home energy management system is built on a chance constrained, MPC-based algorithm, where the chance constraint ensures the indoor thermal comfort is satisfied with a high probability given uncertainty in the outdoor temperature and solar irradiance forecasts. Simulation results for varying sets of controllable resources under two different electricity price structures demonstrate the variation in the HEMS control with respect to HBS operation, electricity cost, and grid power usage.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Superconvergence of Online Optimization for Model Predictive Control

We develop a one-Newton-step-per-horizon, online, lag-L, model predictive control (MPC) algorithm for solving discrete-time, equality-constrained, nonlinear dynamic programs. Based on recent sensitivity analysis results for the target problems class, we prove that the approach exhibits a behavior that we call superconvergence; that is, the tracking error with respect to the full horizon solution is not only stable for successive horizon shifts, but also decreases with increasing shift order to a minimum value that decays exponentially in the length of the receding horizon. The key analytical step is the decomposition of the one-step error recursion of our algorithm into algorithmic error and perturbation error. We show that the perturbation error decays exponentially with the lag between two consecutive receding horizons, while the algorithmic error, determined by Newton’s method, achieves quadratic convergence instead. Overall this approach induces our local exponential convergence result in terms of the receding horizon length for suitable values of L. In conclusion, numerical experiments validate our theoretical findings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Recursive Use of the Short-Time Fast Fourier Transform for Signature Analysis in Continuous Processes

Although a nuclear reactor is a hostile environment for sensing and electrical communications, the reactor core is amenable to acoustic communication. An acoustic measurement infrastructure (AMI) has been installed in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) to record acoustic signals that can capture its different operating regimes. AMI uses coolant pumps as continuous signal sources, coolant and structural components as transmission lines, and accelerometers to capture system motion. A recursive signal processing technique based on the short-time fast Fourier transform (STFFT) for continuous processes provides unique signatures for diagnostic and prognostic analyses from the system motion data. Here this article presents a recursive STFFT methodology that processes acoustic signals from continuous industrial processes. The article first discusses the initial STFFT use with simulated data to elucidate the basic principles necessary to understand and interpret the STFFT results from actual pump vibration data. Each repetitive use of the STFFT on pump vibration data using the results from the prior STFFT processing will generate additional complimentary time-frequency-based signatures. These signatures are generated by the coolant pumps operating under different process conditions. After each use of the STFFT, the resulting signatures provide exemplary examples of the diversity and intuitive nature of recursively using the STFFT. This article focuses on recursively using the STFFT to provide numerous complimentary and diverse signatures that will ultimately be inputs for machine learning algorithms that provide predictive data analytics. The intuitive nature of the information and signatures from recursive STFFT processing will also bring intuitive interpretation capabilities to machine learning and predictive data analytic techniques.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Real-Time Implementation of Smart Wireless Charging of On-Demand Shuttle Service for Demand Charge Mitigation

This paper presents a smart charge management strategy for an on-demand electric shuttle operating at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) campus and supported by an inductive charger at the vehicle's waiting spot. A new control algorithm has been proposed for mitigating the demand charges incurred from the wireless charger. It monitors the shuttle, wireless charger, renewable energy generation, and other loads and regulates charging behavior for demand charge mitigation. Within the control algorithm, an energy prediction is made to estimate the mobility needs of the vehicle and maintain uninterrupted service during operation while still minimizing peak demand. The proposed controller is designed and optimized using a Simulink model for the entire system. It is then implemented and tested in real time at the NREL campus using online cloud services. Two vehicle-use cases' charge-sustaining and charge-depletion operation' are tested under different campus power profiles and drive cycles to assess the controller's performance. In this work, the proposed controller showed a robust performance under different driving scenarios, with high correlation between simulation and experimental data. The results show that proper demand response can be achieved, with an average of 94% reduction of charging loads during peak demand events.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Automotive Silicon Carbide Power Module Cooling With A Novel Modular Manifold And Embedded Heat Sink

The next generation of integrated power electronics packages will implement wide-bandgap devices with ultrahigh device heat fluxes. Although jet impingement has received attention for power electronics thermal management, it is not used in commercial electric vehicles (EVs) because of the associated pressure drop and reliability concerns. Here, in this paper, we present a modular thermal management system designed for automotive power electronics. The system achieves superior thermal performance to benchmarked EVs, while adhering to reliability standards and with low pumping power. The system utilizes a low-cost and lightweight plastic manifold to generate jets over an optimized heat sink, which is embedded in the direct-bonded-copper (DBC) substrate. The embedded heat sink concept leverages additive manufacturing to add elliptical pin fins to the DBC substrate. The heat sink geometry is optimized for submerged jet impingement using a unit-cell model and an exhaustive search algorithm. The model predictions are validated using unit-cell experiments. A full-scale power module model is then used to compare the DBC-embedded heat sink against direct DBC cooling and baseplate-integrated heat sinks for single-sided (SS) and double-sided (DS) cooling concepts. Using the SS and DS DBC-embedded cooling concepts, the models predict a thermal resistance that represents a reduction of 75% and 85% compared to the 2015 BMW i3, respectively, for the same water-ethylene glycol inverter flow rate. We have shown that an inverter with a 100-kilo-Watt-per-liter power density is achievable with the proposed design.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗