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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Delineating Variabilities of Groundwater Level Prediction Across the Agriculturally Intensive Transboundary Aquifers of South Asia

We report the groundwater depletion in South Asia’s Himalayan, transboundary Indus-Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (IGBM) rivers basin is among the highest globally. Given the high irrigation demand and population, groundwater sustainability requires an improved understanding of groundwater systems for the accurate prediction of groundwater levels (GWLs). However, the prediction of groundwater system behaviors is a significant challenge since it is dominated by spatiotemporal and subsurface depth-dependent drivers. Earlier studies that address the challenges are mainly based on the short spatial and temporal extent and/or do not separate the renewable (i.e., shallow) vs nonrenewable (i.e., deeper) groundwater signals. Here, we first identified the variable importance of spatial and depth-dependent drivers on GWL in the IGBM basin. Our results indicate a greater influence of anthropogenic factors (i.e., widespread pumping and increased population) in most parts of the IGBM basin, except in the precipitation-dominated basin of the Brahmaputra. Our next purpose was to delineate a multifactorial approach for GWL prediction using the two most used machine learning models (i.e., support vector machine and feed-forward neural network) in the literature. In general, the machine learning model outputs show a good match in comparison to the GWL from the observation wells (n = 2303 distributed across India and Bangladesh) with some limitations in areas with increased groundwater irrigation. We separately compared the results from shallow (<35 m) and deep (>35 m) observation wells, emphasizing the significance of deep groundwater pumping. Our approach highlights the importance of spatiotemporal to multidepth factors in GWL prediction and can be adopted in other parts of the globe to predict GWLs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A cross-study analysis of drug response prediction in cancer cell lines

Abstract To enable personalized cancer treatment, machine learning models have been developed to predict drug response as a function of tumor and drug features. However, most algorithm development efforts have relied on cross-validation within a single study to assess model accuracy. While an essential first step, cross-validation within a biological data set typically provides an overly optimistic estimate of the prediction performance on independent test sets. To provide a more rigorous assessment of model generalizability between different studies, we use machine learning to analyze five publicly available cell line-based data sets: National Cancer Institute 60, ancer Therapeutics Response Portal (CTRP), Genomics of Drug Sensitivity in Cancer, Cancer Cell Line Encyclopedia and Genentech Cell Line Screening Initiative (gCSI). Based on observed experimental variability across studies, we explore estimates of prediction upper bounds. We report performance results of a variety of machine learning models, with a multitasking deep neural network achieving the best cross-study generalizability. By multiple measures, models trained on CTRP yield the most accurate predictions on the remaining testing data, and gCSI is the most predictable among the cell line data sets included in this study. With these experiments and further simulations on partial data, two lessons emerge: (1) differences in viability assays can limit model generalizability across studies and (2) drug diversity, more than tumor diversity, is crucial for raising model generalizability in preclinical screening.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning-Based Weather-Related Power Outage Prediction with Socio-Economic and Power Infrastructure Data

This paper presents a deep learning-based approach for hourly power outage probability prediction within census tracts encompassing a utility company's service territory. Two distinct deep learning models, conditional Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and unconditional MLP, were developed to forecast power outage probabilities, leveraging a rich array of input features gathered from publicly available sources including weather data, weather station locations, power infrastructure maps, socio-economic and demographic statistics, and power outage records. Given a one-hour-ahead weather forecast, the models predict the power outage probability for each census tract, taking into account both the weather prediction and the location's characteristics. The deep learning models employed different loss functions to optimize prediction performance. Our experimental results underscore the significance of socio-economic factors in enhancing the accuracy of power outage predictions at the census tract level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Genome‐wide association and genomic prediction for yield and component traits of Miscanthus sacchariflorus

Abstract Accelerating biomass improvement is a major goal of Miscanthus breeding. The development and implementation of genomic‐enabled breeding tools, like marker‐assisted selection (MAS) and genomic selection, has the potential to improve the efficiency of Miscanthus breeding. The present study conducted genome‐wide association (GWA) and genomic prediction of biomass yield and 14 yield‐components traits in Miscanthus sacchariflorus . We evaluated a diversity panel with 590 accessions of M. sacchariflorus grown across 4 years in one subtropical and three temperate locations and genotyped with 268,109 single‐nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The GWA study identified a total of 835 significant SNPs and 674 candidate genes across all traits and locations. Of the significant SNPs identified, 280 were localized in mapped quantitative trait loci intervals and proximal to SNPs identified for similar traits in previously reported Miscanthus studies, providing additional support for the importance of these genomic regions for biomass yield. Our study gave insights into the genetic basis for yield‐component traits in M. sacchariflorus that may facilitate marker‐assisted breeding for biomass yield. Genomic prediction accuracy for the yield‐related traits ranged from 0.15 to 0.52 across all locations and genetic groups. Prediction accuracies within the six genetic groupings of M. sacchariflorus were limited due to low sample sizes. Nevertheless, the Korea/NE China/Russia ( N = 237) genetic group had the highest prediction accuracy of all genetic groups (ranging 0.26–0.71), suggesting that with adequate sample sizes, there is strong potential for genomic selection within the genetic groupings of M. sacchariflorus . This study indicated that MAS and genomic prediction will likely be beneficial for conducting population‐improvement of M. sacchariflorus .

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-Enabled Predictive Control for Building HVAC Systems

Model predictive control is widely used as a control technology for the computation of optimal control inputs of building heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. However, both the benefits and widespread adoption of model predictive control (MPC) are hindered by the effort of model creation, calibration, and accuracy of the predictions. In this paper, we apply the data-enabled predictive control (DeePC) algorithm for designing controls for building HVAC systems. The algorithm solely depends on input/output data from the system to predict future state trajectories without the need for system identification. The algorithm relies on the idea that a vector space of all input–output trajectories of a discrete-time linear time-invariant (LTI) system is spanned by time-shifts of a single measured trajectory, given the input signal is persistently exciting. Closed-loop simulations using EnergyPlus are performed to demonstrate the approach. The simulated building modeled in EnergyPlus is a modified commercial large office prototype building served by an air handling unit-variable air volume HVAC system. Temperature setpoints of zones are used as control variables to minimize the HVAC energy cost of the building considering a time-of-use electricity rate structure. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted to gain insights into the effect of parameter tuning on DeePC performance. Simulation results are used to illustrate the performance of the algorithm and compare the algorithm with model-based MPC and occupancy-based setpoint controller. Overall, DeePC achieves similar performance compared to MPC for lower engineering effort.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simultaneously improving accuracy and computational cost under parametric constraints in materials property prediction tasks

Abstract Modern data mining techniques using machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) algorithms have been shown to excel in the regression-based task of materials property prediction using various materials representations. In an attempt to improve the predictive performance of the deep neural network model, researchers have tried to add more layers as well as develop new architectural components to create sophisticated and deep neural network models that can aid in the training process and improve the predictive ability of the final model. However, usually, these modifications require a lot of computational resources, thereby further increasing the already large model training time, which is often not feasible, thereby limiting usage for most researchers. In this paper, we study and propose a deep neural network framework for regression-based problems comprising of fully connected layers that can work with any numerical vector-based materials representations as model input. We present a novel deep regression neural network, iBRNet, with branched skip connections and multiple schedulers, which can reduce the number of parameters used to construct the model, improve the accuracy, and decrease the training time of the predictive model. We perform the model training using composition-based numerical vectors representing the elemental fractions of the respective materials and compare their performance against other traditional ML and several known DL architectures. Using multiple datasets with varying data sizes for training and testing, We show that the proposed iBRNet models outperform the state-of-the-art ML and DL models for all data sizes. We also show that the branched structure and usage of multiple schedulers lead to fewer parameters and faster model training time with better convergence than other neural networks. Scientific contribution: The combination of multiple callback functions in deep neural networks minimizes training time and maximizes accuracy in a controlled computational environment with parametric constraints for the task of materials property prediction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dataset for "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models" Willard et al. (2024)

This data release provides all data and code used in the paper " "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models" Willard et al. (2024)" to model stream temperature, evaluate, and assess results. The associated manuscript explores current open questions in prediction in ungauged and unmonitored basins concerning top-down versus bottom-up approaches, tradeoffs between data available and input requirements, and the appropriate representation of catchment attributes as inputs to deep learning models. Modeling was done primarily with long short-term memory (LSTM) models, and stream site coverage spans 1362 locations across the conterminous United States. The data is organized into these items items:Code repository and data for the paper " "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models" Willard et al. (2024)".Code: stream_temp_ml_regionalization.zip contains the code repositoryData to run the code: - data_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "DATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repository- metadata_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "METADATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repository- error_analysis_attribute_and_groundwater_dir.zip - workflows for the extended error analysis by stream attribute and groundwater influenceData produced by the code and used in the paper:- outputs_dir.zip - contains model output and results (outputs_dir/results), model weights (outputs_dir/models), and all other outputs used for the paper including feature importances.To cite this code, please use the following BibTeX or MLA entries:bibtex:@misc{willard2024streamdata, author = {Jared Willard and Fabio Ciulla and Helen Weierbach and Vipin Kumar and Charuleka Varadharajan}, title = {Dataset for "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models"}, year = {2024}, doi = {10.15485/2448016}, publisher = {ESS-DIVE Repository}, url = {https://doi.org/10.15485/2448016}}MLA: Willard, Jared, et al. Dataset for "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models". 2024. ESS-DIVE Repository, doi:10.15485/2448016.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predictive Modeling and Diagnostic Monitoring of Extreme Science Workflows (Final Report)

This proposal addresses a critical issue of performance prediction identified in the report from the ASCR \Computational Modeling of Big Networks (COMBINE)" workshop: "end-to-end performance is not predictable due to a variety of factors. Even when some performance forecasts or predictions can be made, they often cannot explain the reasons why some predictions fail." We will develop new analytical models to predict the end-to-end performance of scientific workflows on DOE computing infrastructures, and use simulations and experimentation to validate and refine these models, as well as to pinpoint the sources of model inaccuracy. We will also use these models to help diagnose application and infrastructure problems, and to adapt the system based on this diagnosis. This section provides background in the areas relevant to the proposed work. RPI’s specific tasks within the Panorama project are as follows: (1) Develop Aspen-Simulation interface for Workflow Model Driven Simulation. (2) Validate manual performance models of two target workflow scenarios with empirical measurement and simulation. (3) Extend ROSS-Aspen API to simulate workflow descriptions when required. (4) Validate Aspen performance models of two target workflow scenarios with automatic performance model empirical measurement and simulation. (5) Design and implement final system to automatically generate Aspen performance models from workflow descriptions (including methods to compensate for limitations of Aspen analytical models). (6) Validate improved Aspen performance models with target workflow on production infrastructure. To date, all the project milestones assigned to us where reached within the best of our abilities over the course of the project performance period. Below describes the key outcome from our collaborative research in a system named, Durango .

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning and Data Science to Advance Laboratory Earthquake Prediction and Illuminate the Mechanics of Precursors to Failure

Earthquakes represent one of our greatest natural hazards and in recent years human induced seismicity is adding to the threat. Even a modest improvement in the ability to forecast devastating large earthquakes or smaller shallow events associated with fluid injection could save thousands of lives and billions of dollars. Current efforts to forecast earthquakes are limited by knowledge of earthquake physics and hampered by a lack of reliable lab or field observations. However, recent work has provided a critical opportunity for advancement. We have found: 1) clear and consistent precursors prior to earthquake-like failure in the laboratory and 2) that lab earthquakes can be predicted using machine learning (ML). These works show that stick-slip failure events –the lab equivalent of earthquakes– are preceded by a cascade of micro-failure events that radiate elastic energy in a manner that foretells catastrophic failure. Remarkably, ML predicts the fault zone stress state, the failure time and in some cases the magnitude of lab earthquakes. In addition, the observations include clear precursors to failure in the form of changes in fault zone properties prior to lab earthquakes. Precursors have been observed in previous laboratory studies but their origin is poorly understood and their possible connection to ML based earthquake prediction is unknown. The work conducted under our project has dramatically expanded these efforts. We have developed an integrated data science approach to illuminate the physics of earthquake precursors and lab earthquake prediction. Our work has accelerated the development of ML, artificial intelligence (AI), and related data science approaches by providing massive data sets that are tightly connected to critical scientific problems and by bringing together leading subject matter experts and data scientists. Earthquake physics involves phenomena that are far from equilibrium. Our work has leveraged data science methods to illuminate these phenomena and investigate how they relate to earthquake prediction. In addition to a large database with many types of labeled events that is available to everyone, our work has advanced the fundamental understanding of seismic forecasting, earthquake physics, and fault rheology

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Information Entropy as Quantifier of Potential Predictability in the Tropical Indo-Pacific Basin

Global warming is posed to modify the modes of variability that control much of the climate predictability at seasonal to interannual scales. The quantification of changes in climate predictability over any given amount of time, however, remains challenging. Here we build upon recent advances in non-linear dynamical systems theory and introduce the climate community to an information entropy quantifier based on recurrence. The entropy, or complexity of a system is associated with microstates that recur over time in the time-series that define the system, and therefore to its predictability potential. A computationally fast method to evaluate the entropy is applied to the investigation of the information entropy of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans, focusing on boreal fall. In this season the predictability of the basins is controlled by two regularly varying non-linear oscillations, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole. We compute and compare the entropy in simulations from the CMIP5 catalog from the historical period and RCP8.5 scenario, and in reanalysis datasets. Discrepancies are found between the models and the reanalysis, and no robust changes in predictability can be identified in future projections. The Indian Ocean and the equatorial Pacific emerge as troublesome areas where the modeled entropy differs the most from that of the reanalysis in many models. A brief investigation of the source of the bias points to a poor representation of the ocean mean state and basins' connectivity at the Indonesian Throughflow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Video frame prediction of microbial growth with a recurrent neural network

The recent explosion of interest and advances in machine learning technologies has opened the door to new analytical capabilities in microbiology. Using experimental data such as images or videos, machine learning, in particular deep learning with neural networks, can be harnessed to provide insights and predictions for microbial populations. This paper presents such an application in which a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) was used to perform prediction of microbial growth for a population of two Pseudomonas aeruginosa mutants. The RNN was trained on videos that were acquired previously using fluorescence microscopy and microfluidics. Of the 20 frames that make up each video, 10 were used as inputs to the network which outputs a prediction for the next 10 frames of the video. The accuracy of the network was evaluated by comparing the predicted frames to the original frames, as well as population curves and the number and size of individual colonies extracted from these frames. Overall, the growth predictions are found to be accurate in metrics such as image comparison, colony size, and total population. Yet, limitations exist due to the scarcity of available and comparable data in the literature, indicating a need for more studies. Both the successes and challenges of our approach are discussed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing resource allocation in Miscanthus breeding via sparse testing designs for genomic prediction

Phenotyping high-biomass perennial crops is laborious and the rate of genetic gain in conventional perennial crop breeding programs is typically low. So, it is especially important to identify methods that produce efficiency gains in the breeding process. Miscanthus is a C4 perennial grass with favorable characteristics for producing biomass as a feedstock for biofuels and diverse bio-based products. Increasing biomass yield will increase profitability and environmental benefits, so it is a key target for Miscanthus breeding. In addition, the identification of well-adapted genotypes across a wide range of environmental conditions requires the establishment of multi-environment trials (METs). Sparse testing is a genomic prediction-based strategy that reduces the phenotyping costs in METs by selecting a subset of genotypes to evaluate in a subset of environments and then predicts the performance of the unobserved genotype-environment combinations. A Miscanthus sacchariflorus (MSA) population comprising 336 genotypes observed across three environments was analyzed implementing sparse testing designs. Three prediction models considering main effects (environments, genotypes, genomic) and interaction effects (genotype-by-environment; G×E interaction) were implemented for forecasting dry biomass yield (YDY), total culm (TCM), average internode length (AIL), and culm node number (CNN). Multiple calibration sets based on different compositions and sizes were considered to evaluate performance in terms of the predictive ability (PA) and the mean square error (MSE) for a fixed testing set size. The training set size ranged from 52 to 112 to predict a fixed set of 224 unobserved genotypes across all three environments. The results showed that the model accounting for G×E interaction consistently presented the highest PA and the lowest MSE: for CNN (PA: ~0.77, MSE: ~0.5) and YDY (PA: ~0.70, MSE: ~1.3) while for TCM and AIL these ranged from ~0.28 to 0.41 and ~1.3 to 4.3, respectively. Overall, varying training sets and allocation strategies did not affect PA and MSE, with 52 non-overlapping and 0 overlapping genotypes per environment as the optimal cost-effective allocation framework. This suggests that implementing sparse testing designs could significantly reduce phenotyping costs by fivefold, without compromising PA in breeding programs for perennial crops such as Miscanthus.

Miscanthus sacchariflorus (MSA)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Incorporating polar field data for improved solar flare prediction

In this paper, we consider incorporating data associated with the sun’s north and south polar field strengths to improve solar flare prediction performance using machine learning models. When used to supplement local data from active regions on the photospheric magnetic field of the sun, the polar field data provides global information to the predictor. While such global features have been previously proposed for predicting the next solar cycle’s intensity, in this paper we propose using them to help classify individual solar flares. We conduct experiments using HMI data employing four different machine learning algorithms that can exploit polar field information. Additionally, we propose a novel probabilistic mixture of experts model that can simply and effectively incorporate polar field data and provide on-par prediction performance with state-of-the-art solar flare prediction algorithms such as the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). Our experimental results indicate the usefulness of the polar field data for solar flare prediction, which can improve Heidke Skill Score (HSS2) by as much as 10.1%.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting cutoff L-shells of solar protons using the GPPSn particle dataset

Solar energetic protons (SEPs) arriving at the Earth trigger severe radiation storms in the near-Earth space, directly impacting space missions operating at various altitudes. Therefore, monitoring SEP events and predicting the penetration depths of solar protons are critical for aerospace sectors. Building on previous efforts, here we demonstrate the feasibility of using proton measurements from the Global Prompt Proton Sensor network (GPPSn), enabled by Los Alamos National Laboratory developed combined X-ray dosimeters aboard GPS satellites, to characterize and predict the penetration of solar protons into the geomagnetic field. The inclined medium-Earth-orbits (MEOs) of the global GPS constellation offer a unique advantage of allowing simultaneous measurements of penetrating solar protons inside both open- and closed-field line regions. Therefore, the L-profiles of ∼10s–100 MeV solar protons and their associated cutoff L-shells can be determined from the GPPSn dataset, using predefined threshold proton flux values rather than traditional flux ratios. After examining a list of SEP event intervals across solar cycles 23, 24 and 25—including the 2024 Mother’s Day superstorm, we showcase how the latest GPPSn proton dataset (release v1.10), reprocessed and calibrated, can not only be used to monitor solar proton distributions inside the dynamic geomagnetic field for individual events, but also to derive a new empirical model linking cutoff L-shells with several key space weather parameters. This newly developed SEPCL-MEO model demonstrates high predictive performance; for example, predictions for > 30 MeV solar protons yield a correlation coefficient of 0.85 and performance efficiency of 0.67 when validated against GPPSn observations. Results from this pilot study underscores the scientific and operational value of the GPPSn dataset, and this dataset—when paired with machine-learning techniques—can play a critical role in observing and predicting the effects of future incoming SEP events, including extreme ones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Sensor Optimal Motion Planning for Radiological Contamination Surveys by Using Prediction-Difference Maps

Distributed and networked mobile sensor platforms using unmanned aerial and/or ground vehicles to survey areas of interest offer a safer and more efficient method for radiological contamination mapping; however, most applications rely on uniformly sweeping of the area in a raster-type motion without utilizing the information available in a dynamic sense. We have developed a fully autonomous optimal motion planning procedure for networks with two or more mobile sensors. The procedure utilizes well-established concepts of Gaussian processes in combination with control laws based on centroidal Voronoi tessellations to achieve optimal next-iteration sensor movements. A new method of informing optimal motion planning is proposed, whereby the absolute difference between the prior and current full-map prediction, referred to as the prediction-difference map, is used as the spatial density function within each Voronoi cell, providing immediate and iterative feedback for dynamic use of available information. The Gaussian process regression model used to estimate the contamination in unvisited locations also provides prediction uncertainties, and can be used as a quantitative metric to assess the confidence in the calculated contamination map; these estimates and prediction uncertainties are unavailable for standard uniform survey routines as they can only produce maps in the vicinity of observed locations. We present through simulation the achievable performance gains from using this new method by directly comparing to a uniform survey method. Results show that using the prediction-difference maps to inform motion planning procedures offers a faster rate of producing an accurate and convergent map relative to a uniform survey route.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Permeability Prediction Using Vision Transformers

Accurate permeability predictions remain pivotal for understanding fluid flow in porous media, influencing crucial operations across petroleum engineering, hydrogeology, and related fields. Traditional approaches, while robust, often grapple with the inherent heterogeneity of reservoir rocks. With the advent of deep learning, convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have emerged as potent tools in image-based permeability estimation, capitalizing on micro-CT scans and digital rock imagery. This paper introduces a novel paradigm, employing vision transformers (ViTs)—a recent advancement in computer vision—for this crucial task. ViTs, which segment images into fixed-sized patches and process them through transformer architectures, present a promising alternative to CNNs. We present a methodology for implementing ViTs for permeability prediction, its results on diverse rock samples, and a comparison against conventional CNNs. The prediction results suggest that, with adequate training data, ViTs can match or surpass the predictive accuracy of CNNs, especially in rocks exhibiting significant heterogeneity. This study underscores the potential of ViTs as an innovative tool in permeability prediction, paving the way for further research and integration into mainstream reservoir characterization workflows.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A REDUCED ORDER MODELING APPROACH TO PROBABILISTIC CREEP-DAMAGE PREDICTIONS IN FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS

This paper introduces a computationally efficient Reduced Order Modeling (ROM) approach for the probabilistic prediction of creep-damage failure. Component-level probabilistic simulations are needed to assess the reliability and safety of high-temperature components. Full-scale probabilistic creep-damage modeling in finite element (FE) approach is computationally expensive requiring many hundreds of simulations to replicate the uncertainty of component failure. To that end, ROM is proposed to minimize the elevated computational cost while controlling the loss of accuracy. It is proposed that full-scale probabilistic simulations can be completed in 1D at a reduced cost, the extremum conditions extracted, and those conditions applied for lower-cost 2D/3D probabilistic simulations of components that capture the mean and uncertainty of failure. The probabilistic Sine-hyperbolic (Sinh) model is selected which in previous work was calibrated to alloy 304 stainless steel. The Sinh model includes probability density functions (pdfs) for test condition (stress and temperature), initial damage (i.e. microstructure), and material properties uncertainty. The Sinh model is programmed into ANSYS finite element software using the USERCREEP.F material subroutine. First, the Sinh model and FE code are subject to verification and validation to ensure the accuracy of the simulations. Numerous Monte Carlo simulations are executed in a 1D model to generate probabilistic creep deformation, damage, and rupture data. This data is analyzed and the probabilistic parameters corresponding to extreme creep response are extracted. The ROM concept is applied where only the extreme conditions are applied in the 2D probabilistic prediction of a component. The probabilistic predictions between the 1D and 2D geometry is compared to assess ROM for creep. The accuracy of the probabilistic prediction employing the ROM approach will potentially reduce the time and cost of simulating complex engineering systems. Future studies will introduce multi-stage Sinh, stochasticity, and spatial uncertainty for improved prediction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of Multiple Data Streams for Gearbox Bearing Fault Prediction Through Machine-Learning Models

Operations and maintenance (O&M) cost of wind plant accounts up to 30% of total energy cost, which can be reduced through continuous monitoring and successfully detecting incipient wind turbine failures. To accomplish this, condition monitoring and predictive maintenance systems are being implemented in wind industry to support O&M decision making. A wide range of approaches for condition monitoring and fault prediction have been developed. These approaches generally use historical data of wind turbines collected by Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system to identify patterns that lead to failure. These SCADA data show the overall condition of a wind turbine and can be leveraged to detect when the turbine's performance is degrading and to identify if a fault is developing. However, it becomes challenging to predict the failure of a specific wind turbine gearbox bearing, because the SCADA data are often not directly linked to the component. To bridge the gap, we have investigated features calculated from SCADA data using physics-based models and the gearbox design over the years. The damaged metric we used in the physics domain is frictional energy. Combining these physics domain variables with SCADA data as inputs to various machine learning models for gearbox bearing fault prediction, we have demonstrated the benefits of leveraging both physics and data domain models. It was an attempt to improve frictional-energy-based damage metric by adding data domain inputs, as we had learned that the frictional-energy-based damage metric alone is not sufficient to single out failed bearings from healthy. As condition monitoring data (either vibration or oil debris data) has become available at more and more wind plants, we would like to evaluate whether by adding the condition monitoring data can help further improve the performance of frictional-energy-based damage metric for gearbox bearing fault prediction. Both cases by modeling through various machine learning algorithms are discussed in this study along with some observations.

fault prediction↗