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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Launch Vehicle Design and Requirements Verification Using Statistical Methods

- This presentation applies statistics to launch vehicle design, but the methods may be used for other engineering applications - Vehicle Models: What do we know when? How to separate parameters for making Monte Carlo runs - Known when assembling the vehicle but not during design - Known prior to committing to flight - Unknown at lift off - How do we correctly model the vehicle during the design phases? - Number of Monte Carlo samples - Requirements success - Design parameter values

Monte Carlo↗

NASA NTRS2025

Robust Trajectory Optimization for NRHO Rendezvous Using SPICE Kernel Relative Motion

In this paper, robust optimization is performed on trajectory correction maneuvers during the lunar lander return phase of an Artemis mission, treating the trajectory from one hour after low lunar orbit departure to arrival in the vicinity of the lunar Gateway as a relative motion problem. To enable rapid stochastic optimization techniques requiring many candidate trajectories, SPICE kernel relative motion as implemented by the Quadratic Interpolated State Transition (QIST) system is used as the underlying dynamics propagation. The optimization is performed with a genetic optimizer using linear covariance (LinCov) software in a simplified operational context, taking into account the availability of navigation sensors with varying measurement models, ranges, and accuracies. No numerical integration is used, since the relative motion around Gateway is fully characterized with the a priori computation of the QIST coefficients. Maneuver placements are computed to optimize the minimum 3σ delta-v of the trajectory, the position dispersion at a target point, and a convex combination of these two metrics. An order of magnitude runtime improvement is provided over legacy methods with less than 10% error introduced. All QIST results are shown to be in-family with legacy methods. The tradespace for optimal delta-v design is found to range from 77.0 to 93.9 m/s, while the range of optimal dispersion is between 1.4 and 11.7 km.

Relative Motion↗

DOE OSTI2022

A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector

Abstract. Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Composite-dimensional topological codes with boundaries and defects

We introduce new algorithms and provide example constructions of stabilizer models for the gapped boundaries, domain walls, and 0D defects of Abelian composite-dimensional twisted quantum doubles. Using the physically intuitive concept of condensation, our algorithm explicitly describes how to construct the boundary and domain-wall stabilizers starting from the bulk model. This extends the utility of Pauli stabilizer models in describing nontranslationally invariant topological orders with gapped boundaries. To highlight this utility, we provide a series of examples, including a new family of quantum error-correcting codes where the double of ℤ4 is coupled to instances of the double semion (DS) phase. We discuss the codes' utility in the burgeoning area of quantum error correction with an emphasis on the interplay between deconfined anyons, logical operators, error rates, and decoding. We also augment our construction, built using algorithmic tools to describe the properties of explicit stabilizer layouts at the microscopic lattice level, with dimensional counting arguments and macroscopic-level constructions building on pants decompositions. The latter outlines how such codes' representation and design can be automated. Our results are validated by a series of error-correcting threshold calculations comparing our codes' performance with that of standard surface codes. To do so, we introduce a composite-dimensional belief-propagation decoder with ordered statistics that utilizes combination sweeps. Going beyond our worked-out examples, we expect our explicit step-by-step algorithms to pave the path for higher-dimensional codes to be discovered and implemented in near-future architectures that take advantage of various hardware platforms.

Mousa, Mohamad [Purdue University]↗

NASA NTRS1978

Correction to 'Recirculation of energetic particles in Jupiter's magnetosphere'

An error in Pioneer 11 data reduction software has, when present, caused a phase shift of 180 deg in the assignment of spacecraft roll angles. The corrected analysis of the pitch angle distributions of energetic particles in Jupiter's magnetosphere reveals significant proton anisotropies directed toward the planet in the southern hemisphere, contrary to the authors' (1975) original report. In the northern hemisphere, both proton and electron anisotropies are directed away from the planet, as reported previously. The revised data show that the claim of direct evidence for the hypothesis of recirculation of energetic particles in the Jovian magnetosphere is invalid. It is suggested that indirect evidence still supports the hypothesis, although the recirculation process must be weaker than originally envisioned and obscured by other processes.

Sentman, D. D.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Processing circuit with asymmetry corrector and convolutional encoder for digital data

A processing circuit is provided for correcting for input parameter variations, such as data and clock signal symmetry, phase offset and jitter, noise and signal amplitude, in incoming data signals. An asymmetry corrector circuit performs the correcting function and furnishes the corrected data signals to a convolutional encoder circuit. The corrector circuit further forms a regenerated clock signal from clock pulses in the incoming data signals and another clock signal at a multiple of the incoming clock signal. These clock signals are furnished to the encoder circuit so that encoded data may be furnished to a modulator at a high data rate for transmission.

Pfiffner, Harold J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A comparative study of solute trapping in Fe-(33–45 at%) Cu alloys manufactured by laser directed energy deposition

The high cooling rates in laser directed energy deposition (DED-LB) of alloys lead to substantial amounts of solute trapping as solute atoms cannot diffuse away from the solid/liquid interface before it advances. In some concentrated alloys, this results in supersaturated solid phases that form nanoscale hierarchical microstructures when the solute atoms precipitate out during reheating from subsequent laser passes. We choose the Iron-Copper (Fe-Cu) binary alloy as model system as it is chemically homogeneous in the liquid phase and has negligible solid solubility at room temperature. Two alloys with nominal compositions in atomic (at.) %, Fe67Cu33 and Fe55Cu45, were manufactured using DED-LB. Scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM), energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) and wavelength dispersive spectroscopy (WDS) were used to characterize the nanostructures and heterogeneous chemical compositions. A non-equilibrium solute partitioning model was used to compute the supersaturated chemistries of the constituent phases and validated with experimentally measured compositions. The measured phase compositions of the two alloys were very similar, at roughly 12 at.% Cu and 4 at.% Fe in the α(bcc)-Fe and ε(fcc)-Cu phases respectively, despite having different processing parameters and mechanical behavior. This indicates that the total thermal history, that depends on both the processing parameters and laser scan pattern, plays a stronger role on the final microstructure evolution than just the initial quantity of trapped solute. In addition, we find that current non-equilibrium solute partitioning models applied on the continuum scale fall short of predicting accurate quantitative phase compositions in concentrated alloys, although the qualitative trends are captured correctly.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Automated RF Phase Adjustment for Beam Stabilization in the Fermilab Linac

The Fermilab Linac experiences longitudinal beam phase drift, leading to increased particle loss, conventionally corrected through labor-intensive manual RF adjustments. This project explores machine learning-based automation for drift correction, employing a prototype-based classification approach. Our model utilizes a 34-dimensional feature set (RF settings and BPM readings) and leverages a 7x27 response matrix for system modeling. To overcome limited real-world data, we generate synthetic data, enhancing model training and generalizability. Custom loss functions, including a surrogate energy-consistent loss and a temporal smoothness constraint, ensure physically plausible drift predictions. The goal is a robust system for autonomous phase adjustments, ensuring stable beam acceleration and reduced manual intervention.

Chichili, R. R. [Illinois U., Chicago]↗

NASA NTRS1995

BOREAS Aerosol Optical Depth Measurements and Atmospheric Correction

Aerosol optical depth measurements were conducted during all three Intensive Field Campaigns of BOREAS in 1994 by both groundbased and airborne tracking sun photometers. These measurements documented the highly variable aerosol loadings in the BOREAS study areas: very clear days with optical depths at 525 nm of 0.05 alternated with very hazy days (due to smoke from extensive western forest fires) with optical depths greater than 0.5. The airborne sun photometer showed the aerosol layer extended up to 3.5-4 km. Remote sensing missions were largely constrained to clear days, but some occurred under less optimum conditions. The spectral aerosol optical depths were used to derive aerosol size distributions and other aerosol optical properties useful for atmospheric correction of satellite and aircraft remote sensing imagery. Aerosol scattering phase functions and aerosol single scattering albedoes were calculated from Mie scattering theory using reasonable assumptions for the index of refraction for the aersols. Our atmospheric correction procedure Imagecor used the aerosol optical properties to derive surface radiances at each pixel from Landsat Thematic Mapper data of the southern study area on July 25, 1994. Similar efforts under FIFE showed close agreement between atmospherically corrected surface radiances and helicopter measurements of surface radiance of the same sites. Recently we incorporated calculations of the total downwelling irradiance from the 6S radiative transfer program (which vary little over the entire Landsat scene) to derive surface reflectances from the atmospherically corrected surface radiances. Tests using this procedure with both FIFE and HAPEX data sets show good agreement with ground-measured surface reflectances. Surface reflectances derived from the atmospherically corrected radiances of the July 25th Landsat scene will be compared to surface measurements made in BOREAS'southern study area.

Wrigley, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Modeling the vestibulo-ocular reflex of the squirrel monkey during eccentric rotation and roll tilt

Model simulations of the squirrel monkey vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) are presented for two motion paradigms: constant velocity eccentric rotation and roll tilt about a naso-occipital axis. The model represents the implementation of three hypotheses: the "internal model" hypothesis, the "gravito-inertial force (GIF) resolution" hypothesis, and the "compensatory VOR" hypothesis. The internal model hypothesis is based on the idea that the nervous system knows the dynamics of the sensory systems and implements this knowledge as an internal dynamic model. The GIF resolution hypothesis is based on the idea that the nervous system knows that gravity minus linear acceleration equals GIF and implements this knowledge by resolving the otolith measurement of GIF into central estimates of gravity and linear acceleration, such that the central estimate of gravity minus the central estimate of acceleration equals the otolith measurement of GIF. The compensatory VOR hypothesis is based on the idea that the VOR compensates for the central estimates of angular velocity and linear velocity, which sum in a near-linear manner. During constant velocity eccentric rotation, the model correctly predicts that: (1) the peak horizontal response is greater while "facing-motion" than with "back-to-motion"; (2) the axis of eye rotation shifts toward alignment with GIF; and (3) a continuous vertical response, slow phase downward, exists prior to deceleration. The model also correctly predicts that a torsional response during the roll rotation is the only velocity response observed during roll rotations about a naso-occipital axis. The success of this model in predicting the observed experimental responses suggests that the model captures the essence of the complex sensory interactions engendered by eccentric rotation and roll tilt.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

NASA NTRS2009

Topography-Dependent Motion Compensation: Application to UAVSAR Data

The UAVSAR L-band synthetic aperture radar system has been designed for repeat track interferometry in support of Earth science applications that require high-precision measurements of small surface deformations over timescales from hours to years. Conventional motion compensation algorithms, which are based upon assumptions of a narrow beam and flat terrain, yield unacceptably large errors in areas with even moderate topographic relief, i.e., in most areas of interest. This often limits the ability to achieve sub-centimeter surface change detection over significant portions of an acquired scene. To reduce this source of error in the interferometric phase, we have implemented an advanced motion compensation algorithm that corrects for the scene topography and radar beam width. Here we discuss the algorithm used, its implementation in the UAVSAR data processor, and the improvement in interferometric phase and correlation achieved in areas with significant topographic relief.

surface deformation↗

NASA NTRS2022

Assurance Equations: A Cost and Criticality Model for Optimizing Quality Assurance Surveillance

The cost of quality vs cost of failure correction has been a long-running topic of discussion within the Aerospace community. It leads directly to concepts of “risk tolerance”, and risk-based decision-making. It would be valuable if there was a way to compute the optimal investment in customer-executed quality assurance activities using defect significance with respect to performance objectives, the activities’ defect detection effectiveness, and the cost-penalty for late discovery of impactful defects. This optimization is particularly of interest to projects whose budget constraints significantly limit their risk management options.The cost to fix defects (i.e., failure correction) escalates as the project matures. There have been studies attempting to determine the relative cost of fixing defects discovered during various phases of a project life cycle with important implications, all of which suggest growth factors are large. The commonly referred to 1:10:100 rule represents a cost multiplier for repair/rework across the Design to Fab to Test hardware development phases. Cost premiums for QA activities also accumulate when they are treated as mandatory (due to schedule drag) or are performed later than their assigned phase.This paper describes the modeling of development phase -dependencies in the conduct of typical customer-executed quality assurance activities. Our initial modeling encompasses:• Distinct phases of the production lifecycle• Multiple kinds of Defects, each with some a-priori likelihood of being present• Each defect’s impact on performance Objectives for a type of hardware• The cost and efficacy of assurance techniques at detecting such Defects• The costs of fixing those Defects detected in a given phase of the production lifecycleThe model captures assurance activities’ abilities to Detect defects. Upon detection it is assumed that the Defect is immediately fixed. Defects that “escape” detection by some activity may thereafter be detected by a later activity, but by then the cost of fixing the Defect may have escalated. Defects are related to the performance Objectives they would detract from, were those Defects to remain present in the operating system.We have constructed and are exploring, a model that relates the importance of hardware system elements to mission objectives, the impact of types of Defects on those hardware types, the cost of customer-executed assurance activities (i.e., supplier controls) and their effectiveness towards reducing an impactful quality escape, and the cost of Defect correction across production phase. We describe the approach taken to select the key model aspects, why they are relevant to our NASA mission, and our efforts to populate it with relevant and contemporary data. We use a notional example to illustrate model design and function.

Plante, Jeannette↗

NASA NTRS1989

Light scattering by randomly oriented crystals

The scattering phase function and the degree of linear polarization for small crystals oriented randomly in space have been computed using the geometric ray tracing theory and assuming that the crystals are homogeneous and isotropic. Calculations have been carried out for the main crystal geometries. Detection of halos from crystals other than hexagonal water ice is briefly discussed. The crystal size and shape parameters have also been averaged over some simple distributions in order to examine general light scattering properties of sharp-edged particles. A scalar physical optics correction has been developed for the geometric optics phase functions. Results can be applied to light scattering from regoliths and planetary rings, and possibly also to atmospheric halos. Retroreflecting crystals in the regolith would cause an opposition spike, a phenomenon observed for many bright satellites.

Muinonen, Karri↗

NASA NTRS2017

Land Surface Precipitation and Hydrology in MERRA-2

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), provides global, 1-hourly estimates of land surface conditions for 1980-present at 50-km resolution. Outside of the high latitudes, MERRA-2 uses observations-based precipitation data products to correct the precipitation falling on the land surface. This paper describes the precipitation correction method and evaluates the MERRA-2 land surface precipitation and hydrology. Compared to monthly GPCPv2.2 observations, the corrected MERRA-2 precipitation (M2CORR) is better than the precipitation generated by the atmospheric models within the cyclingMERRA-2 system and the earlier MERRA reanalysis. Compared to 3-hourlyTRMM observations, the M2CORR diurnal cycle has better amplitude but less realistic phasing than MERRA-2 model-generated precipitation. Because correcting the precipitation within the coupled atmosphere-land modeling system allows the MERRA-2 near-surface air temperature and humidity to respond to the improved precipitation forcing, MERRA-2 provides more self-consistent surface meteorological data than were available from the earlier, offline MERRA-Land reanalysis. Overall, MERRA-2 land hydrology estimates are better than those of MERRA-Land and MERRA. A comparison against GRACE satellite observations of terrestrial water storage demonstrates clear improvements in MERRA-2 over MERRA in South America and Africa but also reflects known errors in the observations used to correct the MERRA-2 precipitation. The MERRA-2 and MERRA-Land surface and root zone soil moisture skill vs. in situ measurements is slightly higher than that of ERA-Interim Land and higher than that of MERRA (significantly for surface soil moisture). Snow amounts from MERRA-2 have lower bias and correlate better against reference data than do those of MERRA-Land and MERRA, with MERRA-2 skill roughly matching that of ERA-Interim Land. Seasonal anomaly R values against naturalized stream flow measurements in the United States are, on balance, highest for MERRA-2 and ERA-Interim Land, somewhat lower for MERRA-Land, and lower still for MERRA.

MERRA-↗

DOE OSTI2025

Low-Density Parity-Check Codes as Stable Phases of Quantum Matter

Phases of matter with robust ground-state degeneracy, such as the quantum toric code, are known to be capable of robust quantum information storage. Here, we address the converse question: given a quantum error-correcting code, when does it define a stable gapped quantum phase of matter, whose ground-state degeneracy is robust against perturbations in the thermodynamic limit? We prove that a low-density parity-check (LDPC) code defines such a phase, robust against all few-body perturbations, if its code distance grows at least logarithmically in the number of degrees of freedom, and it exhibits “check soundness.” Many constant-rate quantum LDPC expander codes have such properties, and define stable phases of matter with a constant zero-temperature entropy density, violating the third law of thermodynamics. Our results also show that quantum toric-code phases are robust to spatially nonlocal few-body perturbations. Similarly, phases of matter defined by classical codes are stable against symmetric perturbations. In the classical setting, we present improved locality bounds on the quasiadiabatic evolution operator between two nearby states in the same code phase.

quantum error correction↗

DOE OSTI2020

How good are polarizable and flexible models for water: Insights from a many-body perspective

We present a systematic analysis of state-of-the-art polarizable and flexible water models from a many-body perspective, with a specific focus on their ability to represent the Born–Oppenheimer potential energy surface of water from the gas to the liquid phase. Using coupled cluster data in the completed basis set limit as a reference, we examine the accuracy of the polarizable models in reproducing individual many-body contributions to interaction energies and harmonic frequencies of water clusters and compare their performance with that of MB-pol, an explicit many-body model that has been shown to correctly predict the properties of water across the entire phase diagram. Based on these comparisons, we use MB-pol as a reference to analyze the ability of the polarizable models to reproduce the energy landscape of liquid water under ambient conditions. We find that, while correctly reproducing the energetics of minimum-energy structures, the polarizable models examined in this study suffer from inadequate representations of many-body effects for distorted configurations. To investigate the role played by geometry-dependent representations of 1-body charge distributions in reproducing coupled cluster data for both interaction and many-body energies, we introduce a simplified version of MB-pol that adopts fixed atomic charges and demonstrate that the new model retains the same accuracy as the original MB-pol model. Based on the analyses presented in this study, we believe that future developments of both polarizable and explicit many-body models should continue in parallel and would benefit from synergistic efforts aimed at integrating the best aspects of the two theoretical/computational frameworks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1980

Label Identification from Statistical Tabulation (LIST) temporal extendability study

The author has identified the following significant results. The most apparent contributors to the problem of poor temporal extension of LIST are the drastic changes in the brightness keys and an inadequate set of AI responses in Phase 3. The brightness trajectories change drastically from Phase 3 to the transition year (TY). Removing brightness channels from the discriminant does not completely correct the lack of extendability. Removing brightness increases the accuracy of the extension from Phase 3 to TY from 57.7 percent to 64.18 percent. The removal of the Al keys increases accuracy to 65.76 percent. Although the latter increase appears insignificant when compared to the first, the removal of only the Al keys increased accuracy to 63.58 percent. Proper weighting of the responses explains 73.8 percent of the ground truth labels but only 56.7 percent of the Al labels. By contrast, the TY responses which were weighted to explain the TY ground truth labels fared equally well, explaining 73.6 percent of those labels and 87.1 percent of the Al labels.

Dennis, T. B.↗

DOE OSTI2026

SAIL Field Campaign X-Band Precipitation Radar Seasonal Surface Hydrometeor Phase Classification Value-Added Product Report

The Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) campaign generated an unprecedented, multisensory record of cold-season precipitation in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). To complement the Surface Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (SQUIRE) snow water equivalent (SWE) product derived from the Colorado State University (CSU) X-band radar, a hydrometeor phase classification data set was developed to systematically identify phase of the near-surface precipitation. The algorithm uses Corrected Moments in Antenna Coordinates (CMAC) fields with semi-supervised classification (SSC) and fuzzy-logic hydrometeor classification (FHC) methods and maps hydrometeor classes to a compact set of phase classes suitable for Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) and hydrologic applications. We used SQUIRE grid projections to mitigate beam-blockage issues by selecting the near-surface gates for each beam as well as to make it directly usable for the QPE products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗