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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Characteristics of Precipitation and Mesoscale Convective Systems Over the Peruvian Central Andes in Multi 5‐Year Convection‐Permitting Simulations

Abstract Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with two planetary boundary layer schemes, ACM2 and MYNN, convection‐permitting model (CPM) regional climate simulations were conducted for a 6‐year period, including a one‐year spin‐up period, at a 15‐km grid spacing covering entire South America and a nested convection‐permitting 3‐km grid spacing covering the Peruvian central Andes region. These two CPM simulations along with a 4‐km simulation covering South America produced by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), three gridded precipitation products, and rain gauge data in Peru and Brazil, are used to document the characteristics of precipitation and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the Peruvian central Andes region. Results show that all km‐scale simulations generally capture the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation and MCSs at both seasonal and diurnal scales, although biases exist in aspects such as precipitation intensity and MCS frequency, size, propagation speed, and associated precipitation intensity. The 3‐km simulation using MYNN scheme generally outperforms the other simulations in capturing seasonal and diurnal precipitation over the mountain, while both it and the 4‐km simulation demonstrate superior performance in the western Amazon Basin, based on the comparison to the gridded precipitation products and gauge data. Dynamic factors, primarily low‐level jet and terrain‐induced uplift, are the key drivers for precipitation and MCS genesis along the east slope of the Andes, while thermodynamic factors control the precipitation and MCS activity in the western Amazon Basin and over elevated mountainous regions. The study suggests model improvements and better model configurations for future regional climate projections.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
NASA NTRS1993

Average effects of large-scale convection on helioseismic line widths and frequencies

The formalism of Lavely and Ritzwoller (1992) is here applied to the model of stationary large-scale solar convection developed by Glatzmaier (1984) in order to determine a characteristic giant-cell convection signature in helioseismic data. Frequency and line-width measurements are presented on spatially filtered spectra, so that references to azimuthal orders apply to the m-value of the spatial filter's spherical harmonic. Attention is given to the 'Q-bowl' pattern of large-scale convection, a systematic, apparent line-broadening.

Lavely, Eugene M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Application of Geostatistical Simulation to Enhance Satellite Image Products

With the deployment of Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites that provide daily, global imagery, there is increasing interest in defining the limitations of the data and derived products due to its coarse spatial resolution. Much of the detail, i.e. small fragments and notches in boundaries, is lost with coarse resolution imagery such as the EOS MODerate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. Higher spatial resolution data such as the EOS Advanced Spaceborn Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), Landsat and airborne sensor imagery provide more detailed information but are less frequently available. There are, however, both theoretical and analytical evidence that burn scars and other fragmented types of land covers form self-similar or self-affine patterns, that is, patterns that look similar when viewed at widely differing spatial scales. Therefore small features of the patterns should be predictable, at least in a statistical sense, with knowledge about the large features. Recent developments in fractal modeling for characterizing the spatial distribution of undiscovered petroleum deposits are thus applicable to generating simulations of finer resolution satellite image products. We will present example EOS products, analysis to investigate self-similarity, and simulation results.

Hlavka, Christine A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Intrinsic Century-Scale Variability in Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures and Their Influence on Western US Hydroclimate

Hydroclimate variability of the southwest United States (SWUS) is influenced by the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly through the teleconnection to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is expected to be altered by climate change. Natural variability in this teleconnection has not been robustly quantified, complicating the detection of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we use a linear inverse model (LIM) to quantify natural variability in the ENSO-SWUS teleconnection. The LIM yields realistic teleconnection patterns with century-scale variability comparable to simulations from the Last Millennium Ensemble project and the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6. The variability quantified by the LIM illuminates two aspects of our understanding of ENSO and its impacts: the inherent statistics of the observable system can produce century-long periods with a wide range of correlations to SWUS hydroclimate, including nonsignificant correlations, and thus that detecting changes in ENSO-related hydroclimate variability is challenging in a changing climate.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2002

Global Precipitation Analyses at Time Scales of Monthly to 3-Hourly

Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the Goodyear data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the Goodyear period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENRON variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1 degree latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is described. Finally, a TRMM-based Based analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous OR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, Baehr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January Represent). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 deg. N -50 deg. S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions.

Adler, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Remote Sensing the Patterns of Vector-borne Disease in El Nino and non-El Nino Years

The relationship between El Nino and non-El Nino and the patterns of vector-borne disease can be viewed at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. At one extreme are long term predictions of changing precipitation and temperature patterns at continental and global scales. At the opposite extreme are the local or site specific ecological changes associated with the long term events. In order to understand and address the human health consequences of El Nino events, especially the patterns of vector-borne diseases, it is necessary to combine both scales of observation. At a local or regional scale the patterns of vector-borne diseases are determined by temperature, precipitation, and habitat availability. These factors, as well as disease incidence can be altered by El Nino events. Remote sensing data such as that acquired by the NOAA AVHRR and Landsat TM sensors can be used to characterize and monitor changing ecological conditions and therefore predict vector-borne disease patterns. The authors present the results of preliminary work on the analysis of historical AVHRR and TM data acquired during El Nino and nonfatal Nino years to characterize ecological conditions in Peru on a monthly basis. This information will then be combined with disease data to determine the relationship between changes in ecological conditions and disease incidence. Our goal is to produce a sequence of remotely sensed images which can be used to show the ecological and disease patterns associated with long term El Nino events and predictions.

Wood, B. L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Origin of giant Martian polygons

Extensive areas of the Martian northern plains in Utopia and Acidalia planitiae are characterized by 'polygonal terrane'. Polygonal terrane consists of material cut by complex troughs defining a pattern resembling mudcracks, columnar joints, or frost-wedge polygons on earth. However, the Martian polygons are orders of magnitude larger than these potential earth analogues, leading to severe mechanical difficulties for genetic models based on simple analogy arguments. Plate-bending and finite element models indicate that shrinkage of desiccating sediment or cooling volcanics accompanied by differential compaction over buried topography can account for the stresses responsible for polygon troughs as well as the large size of the polygons. Although trough widths and depths relate primarily to shrinkage, the large scale of the polygonl pattern relates to the spacing between topographic elevations on the surface buried beneath polygonal terrane material. Geological relationships favor a sedimentary origin for polygonal terrane material, but our model is not dependent on the specific genesis. Our analysis also suggests that the polygons must have formed at a geologically rapid rate.

Mcgill, George E.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Noise radiation directivity from a wind-tunnel inlet with inlet vanes and duct wall linings

The acoustic radiation patterns from a 1/15th scale model of the Ames 80- by 120-Ft Wind Tunnel test section and inlet have been measured with a noise source installed in the test section. Data were acquired without airflow in the duct. Sound-absorbent inlet vanes oriented parallel to each other, or splayed with a variable incidence relative to the duct long axis, were evaluated along with duct wall linings. Results show that splayed vans tend to spread the sound to greater angles than those measured with the open inlet. Parallel vanes narrowed the high-frequency radiation pattern. Duct wall linings had a strong effect on acoustic directivity by attenuating wall reflections. Vane insertion loss was measured. Directivity results are compared with existing data from square ducts. Two prediction methods for duct radiation directivity are described: one is an empirical method based on the test data, and the other is a analytical method based on ray acoustics.

Soderman, P. T.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Semi-automated Design of Artificial Intelligence Earth Systems Models

Prediction and observation of water cycles at various scales involve not only patterns isolated in space and time, but also modeling of complex spatio-temporal relationships across multiple domains. For instance, evapotranspiration (ET) and leaf area indexes (LAI) are two parameters that are needed to accurately model and understand land-atmosphere processes. Accurate assessments of ET and LAI are critical for understanding hydrological processes, deforestation, crop yield, and irrigation impacts. However, ET estimates for global simulations are available at very coarse spatial resolution. They are usually derived from satellite data based on broad plant functional types (PFTs), which fail to capture fine-scale variations because of changes in vegetation type across the globe. Similarly LAI estimates have typically been derived from vegetation indices at global scales or estimated locally using physical models, both of which suffer from a range of uncertainties that impact model sensitivity. The new era of AI model development for Earth systems (ES) calls for data-driven methods that provide domain scientists with uncertainty-aware estimations of biophysical parameters such as ET and LAI in a generalizable, interpretable, and discoverable manner.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying microbial control of soil organic matter dynamics at macrosystem scales

Soil organic matter (SOM) stocks, decomposition and persistence are largely the product of controls that act locally. Yet the controls are shaped and interact at multiple spatiotemporal scales, from which macrosystem patterns in SOM emerge. Theory on SOM turnover recognizes the resulting spatial and temporal conditionality in the effect sizes of controls that play out across macrosystems, and couples them through evolutionary and community assembly processes. For example, climate history shapes plant functional traits, which in turn interact with contemporary climate to influence SOM dynamics. Selection and assembly also shape the functional traits of soil decomposer communities, but it is less clear how in turn these traits influence temporal macrosystem patterns in SOM turnover. Here, we review evidence that establishes the expectation that selection and assembly should generate decomposer communities across macrosystems that have distinct functional effects on SOM dynamics. Representation of this knowledge in soil biogeochemical models affects the magnitude and direction of projected SOM responses under global change. Yet there is high uncertainty and low confidence in these projections. To address these issues, we make the case that a coordinated set of empirical practices are required which necessitate (1) greater use of statistical approaches in biogeochemistry that are suited to causative inference; (2) long-term, macrosystem-scale, observational and experimental networks to reveal conditionality in effect sizes, and embedded correlation, in controls on SOM turnover; and (3) use of multiple measurement grains to capture local- and macroscale variation in controls and outcomes, to avoid obscuring causative understanding through data aggregation. Here, when employed together, along with process-based models to synthesize knowledge and guide further empirical work, we believe these practices will rapidly advance understanding of microbial controls on SOM and improve carbon cycle projections that guide policies on climate adaptation and mitigation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1973

Application of Earth Resources Technology Satellite data to urban development and regional planning: Test site, County of Los Angeles

The author has identified the following significant results. Signigicant results have been obtained from the analyses of ERTS-1 imagery from five cycles over Test Site SR 124 by classical photointerpretation and by an interactive hybrid multispectral information extraction system (GEMS). Photointerpretation has produced over 25 overlays at 1:1,000,000 scale depicting regional relations and urban structure in terms of several hundred linear and areal features. A possible new fault lineament has been discovered on the northern slope of the Santa Monica mountains. GEMS analysis of the ERTS-1 products has provided new or improved information in the following planning data categories: urban vegetation; land cover segregation; manmade and natural impact monitoring; urban design; land suitability. ERTS-1 data analysis has allowed planners to establish trends that directly impact planning policies. For example, detectable grading and new construction sites quantitatively indicated the extent, direction, and rate of urban expansion which enable planners to forecast demand and growth patterns on a regional scale. This new source of information will not only assist current methods to be more efficient, but permits entirely new planning methodologies to be employed.

Raje, S.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Layer by layer thin film fabrication with in-process laser patterning

A modification of the traditional layer by layer process where the substrate is irradiated with laser light during the polycation and/or polyanion dipping cycles is described. By adjusting the laser irradiation time during dipping, irradiation power, number of bilayers, and the location and speed of laser irradiation, a variety of structures with controlled thicknesses can be fabricated. Laser patterned multilayer PAH/PTEBS polymer thin films were fabricated and characterized with absorbance mapping to demonstrate several patterning approaches. Results for 1) two laser patterned tracks, 2) single laser patterned track with varied average laser power across the sample from a continuously variable neutral density filter, and 3) laser patterning using a beam sent through multiple circular apertures are described. Based on the variable neutral density filter laser pattern, for 20 bilayer PAH/PTEBS films, an absorbance difference between off and on pattern of 0.1 requires an average laser power of less than 15 mW at 405 nm. The patterns produced are on the scale of several millimeters, though they could be made much smaller by focusing the laser used for patterning.

Nanoengineering↗
DOE OSTI2022

Self-consistent dispersal puts tight constraints on the spatiotemporal organization of species-rich metacommunities

Dispersal can be critical to the maintenance of ecosystems as it allows local communities to be recolonized after extinction. However, it remains unclear whether the extinction-mitigating effect of dispersal persists when the number of competing species is large. Based on a spatially explicit mathematical description of metacommunities, we show that when many species coexist, each species operates near its extinction threshold, barely surviving due to dispersal. This has general consequences for spatiotemporal abundance patterns. For short-range dispersal, species organize into fractal spatiotemporal extinction patterns characteristic of a directed percolation phase transition. As species approach their extinction threshold, biodiversity is very sensitive to perturbation, suggesting that dispersal within a metacommunity puts tight constraints on the robustness and evolution of species-rich metacommunities. Biodiversity is often attributed to a dynamic equilibrium between the immigration and extinction of species. This equilibrium forms a common basis for studying ecosystem assembly from a static reservoir of migrants—the mainland. Yet, natural ecosystems often consist of many coupled communities (i.e., metacommunities), and migration occurs between these communities. The pool of migrants then depends on what is sustained in the ecosystem, which, in turn, depends on the dynamic migrant pool. This chicken-and-egg problem of survival and dispersal is poorly understood in communities of many competing species, except for the neutral case—the “unified neutral theory of biodiversity.” Employing spatiotemporal simulations and mean-field analyses, we show that self-consistent dispersal puts rather tight constraints on the dynamic migration–extinction equilibrium. When the number of species is large, species are pushed to the edge of their global extinction, even when competition is weak. As a consequence, the overall diversity is highly sensitive to perturbations in demographic parameters, including growth and dispersal rates. When dispersal is short range, the resulting spatiotemporal abundance patterns follow broad scale-free distributions that correspond to a directed percolation phase transition. The qualitative agreement of our results for short-range and long-range dispersal suggests that this self-organization process is a general property of species-rich metacommunities. Our study shows that self-sustaining metacommunities are highly sensitive to environmental change and provides insights into how biodiversity can be rescued and maintained.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Time Series Foundation Models and Deep Learning Architectures for Earthquake Temporal and Spatial Nowcasting

Advancing the capabilities of earthquake nowcasting, the real-time forecasting of seismic activities, remains crucial for reducing casualties. This multifaceted challenge has recently gained attention within the deep learning domain, facilitated by the availability of extensive earthquake datasets. Despite significant advancements, the existing literature on earthquake nowcasting lacks comprehensive evaluations of pre-trained foundation models and modern deep learning architectures; each focuses on a different aspect of data, such as spatial relationships, temporal patterns, and multi-scale dependencies. This paper addresses the mentioned gap by analyzing different architectures and introducing two innovative approaches called Multi Foundation Quake and GNNCoder. We formulate earthquake nowcasting as a time series forecasting problem for the next 14 days within 0.1-degree spatial bins in Southern California. Earthquake time series are generated using the logarithm energy released by quakes, spanning 1986 to 2024. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that our introduced models outperform other custom architectures by effectively capturing temporal-spatial relationships inherent in seismic data. The performance of existing foundation models varies significantly based on the pre-training datasets, emphasizing the need for careful dataset selection. However, we introduce a novel method, Multi Foundation Quake, that achieves the best overall performance by combining a bespoke pattern with Foundation model results handled as auxiliary streams.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) high resolution model intercomparison project (HighResMIP) bias in extreme rainfall drives underestimation of amazonian precipitation

Abstract Extreme rainfall events drive the amount and spatial distribution of rainfall in the Amazon and are a key driver of forest dynamics across the basin. This study investigates how the 3-hourly predictions in the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP, a component of the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6) represent extreme rainfall events at annual, seasonal, and sub-daily time scales. TRMM 3B42 (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) 3 h data were used as observations. Our results showed that eleven out of seventeen HighResMIP models showed the observed association between rainfall and number of extreme events at the annual and seasonal scales. Two models captured the spatial pattern of number of extreme events at the seasonal and annual scales better (higher correlation) than the other models. None of the models captured the sub-daily timing of extreme rainfall, though some reproduced daily totals. Our results suggest that higher model resolution is a crucial factor for capturing extreme rainfall events in the Amazon, but it might not be the sole factor. Improving the representation of Amazon extreme rainfall events in HighResMIP models can help reduce model rainfall biases and uncertainties and enable more reliable assessments of the water cycle and forest dynamics in the Amazon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

Composite climatology of Florida summer thunderstorms

An attempt is made to produce a more comprehensive peninsular Florida summer thunderstorm climatology using composites based upon the longest available time series of best-resolution manually digitized radar (MDR) return. The MDR composites are compared to a more limited set of satellite composites, and temporal variation in the radar composites is related to synoptic-scale variability. The results objectively demonstrate the dominance of recurrent convective patterns over south Florida, even at scales as small as local coastline variation.

Michaels, Patrick J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Compound Drought and Heatwaves at a Global Scale: The Role of Natural Climate Variability-Associated Synoptic Patterns and Land-Surface Energy Budget Anomalies

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have garnered much attention in recent studies. However, thus far, the identification of such events is oversimplified, and their association with natural climate variability is not fully explored. Here, we derive anomalies in the weekly self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc_PDSI) and daily maximum temperatures to identify CDHW events from 1982 to 2016 over 26 climate regions across the globe. Using a Poisson Generalized Linear Model (GLM), we analyze yearly occurrences of seasonal CDHW events and their association with the warm and cold phases of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). ENSO exhibits robust association with CDHW events over the Southern Hemisphere during the austral summer and fall, while PDO influences their occurrences over the Western North America in the Northern Hemisphere during the boreal summer, which is supported by the composites of anomalies in the atmospheric circulations and surface energy budget. However, NAO association with CDHW events is relatively weak. The CDHW occurrence over other regions is driven by a combination of these large-scale natural forcing. Our analyses also highlight that the cooccurrence of weekly to submonthly scale anomalies in the observed temperature and precipitation may not be always aligned between the observations and the reanalysis. Therefore, caution must be exercised while explaining such observed anomalies on the basis of reanalysis-based circulations and surface energy budget. Lastly, our analyses provide a new insight towards concurrent extremes and should help foster research efforts in this area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Selective CW Laser Synthesis of MoS2 and Mixture of MoS2 and MoO2 from (NH4)2MoS4 Film

Very recently, the synthesis of 2D MoS2 and WS2 through pulsed laser-directed thermolysis can achieve wafer-scale and large-area structures, in ambient conditions. In this paper, we report the synthesis of MoS2 and MoS2 oxides from (NH4)2MoS4 film using a visible continuous-wave (CW) laser at 532 nm, instead of the infrared pulsed laser for the laser-directed thermolysis. The (NH4)2MoS4 film is prepared by dissolving its crystal powder in DI water, sonicating the solution, and dip-coating onto a glass slide. We observed a laser intensity threshold for the laser synthesis of MoS2, however, it occurred in a narrow laser intensity range. Above that range, a mixture of MoS2 and MoO2 is formed, which can be used for a memristor device, as demonstrated by other research groups. We did not observe a mixture of MoS2 and MoO3 in the laser thermolysis of (NH4)2MoS4. The laser synthesis of MoS2 in a line pattern is also achieved through laser scanning. Due to of the ease of CW beam steering and the fine control of laser intensities, this study can lead toward the CW laser-directed thermolysis of (NH4)2MoS4 film for the fast, non-vacuum, patternable, and wafer-scale synthesis of 2D MoS2.

(NH4)2MoS4↗