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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

TDCOSMO. XII. Improved Hubble constant measurement from lensing time delays using spatially resolved stellar kinematics of the lens galaxy

Strong-lensing time delays enable measurement of the Hubble constant ($H_{0}$) independently of other traditional methods. The main limitation to the precision of time-delay cosmography is mass-sheet degeneracy (MSD). Some of the previous TDCOSMO analyses broke the MSD by making standard assumptions about the mass density profile of the lens galaxy, reaching 2% precision from seven lenses. However, this approach could potentially bias the $H_0$ measurement or underestimate the errors. For this work, we broke the MSD for the first time using spatially resolved kinematics of the lens galaxy in RXJ1131$-$1231 obtained from the Keck Cosmic Web Imager spectroscopy, in combination with previously published time delay and lens models derived from Hubble Space Telescope imaging. This approach allowed us to robustly estimate $H_0$, effectively implementing a maximally flexible mass model. Following a blind analysis, we estimated the angular diameter distance to the lens galaxy $D_{\rm d} = 865_{-81}^{+85}$ Mpc and the time-delay distance $D_{\Delta t} = 2180_{-271}^{+472}$ Mpc, giving $H_0 = 77.1_{-7.1}^{+7.3}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ - for a flat $\Lambda$ cold dark matter cosmology. The error budget accounts for all uncertainties, including the MSD inherent to the lens mass profile and the line-of-sight effects, and those related to the mass-anisotropy degeneracy and projection effects. Our new measurement is in excellent agreement with those obtained in the past using standard simply parametrized mass profiles for this single system ($H_0 = 78.3^{+3.4}_{-3.3}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$) and for seven lenses ($H_0 = 74.2_{-1.6}^{+1.6}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$), or for seven lenses using single-aperture kinematics and the same maximally flexible models used by us ($H_0 = 73.3^{+5.8}_{-5.8}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$). This agreement corroborates the methodology of time-delay cosmography.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2023

Constraining the Venus Interior Structure With Future VERITAS Measurements of the Gravitational Atmospheric Loading

The complex dynamics of the Venus atmosphere produces a periodic mass redistribution pattern that creates a time-variable modulation of the gravity field of Venus. This gravity signal depends on the net transport of mass across the globe and on the response of the solid body to the normal loading of its crust imparted by the atmosphere. In this work, we explore the possibility of measuring this phenomenon with VERITAS, a NASA Discovery-class mission. By simulating the gravity science experiment, we explore the possibility of measuring the response of Venus to the atmospheric loading, parametrized by the loading Love numbers ( 𝑘 𝑙 ' ), and assess the dependence of these parameters on fundamental interior structure properties. Using the most recent models of Venus' interior, we compute the Venus Love numbers in a compressible viscoelastic setting and compare them with the predicted uncertainty of the VERITAS measurements. We show that VERITAS will measure 𝑘 2 ' at the 4% level and that this measurement could possibly help to distinguish between different equally plausible interior structure models, especially allowing us to distinguish different rheological laws. We also show that a measurement campaign such as the VERITAS gravity science investigation has the potential of measuring 𝑘 2 ' not only at the loading forcing frequency, but also at the tidal frequency, ultimately providing a way to probe the response of the planet at different forcing periods.

Atmospheric tides↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of Data Reduction Methods for Dynamic Stability Tests in a Magnetic Suspension and Balance System

The NASA/ODU 6-inch Magnetic Suspension and Balance System (MSBS) is operational in a “free-to-yaw” configuration in a subsonic wind tunnel. The MSBS hardware has been heavily modified over recent years to utilize a transverse magnetization scheme, with mixed electromagnetic and motion tracking camera position sensors and a relatively sophisticated control system. The project aims to provide a unique test capability for dynamic stability testing of planetary entry capsules, free from support interference. Aerodynamic tests are being conducted, with a focus of validation of the data reduction methods used to extract dynamic stability parameters. The unique complication is the existence of magnetic, aerodynamic, and mass centers, where magnetic, aerodynamic, and inertia forces respectively are resolved. The paper will report on tests of a family of EEV-like geometries, where the conical half-angle varied between 45 and 60 degrees in steps of 3.75 degrees. The paper will present experimental results from the parametric family of EEV-like geometries. Simulation results will also be presented, based on a two or three degree-of-freedom Simulink model. The model allows the exploration of the effects of non-coincident centers and the sensitivity of results arising from uncertainties in location.

Entry Systems Modeling↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Blind Validation Study of PRICE TruePlanning and SEER-H

Two of the primary parametric costing tools used to estimate the development and production cost of future spacecraft hardware are PRICE TruePlanning by PRICE Systems, and System Estimation and Evaluation of Resources-Hardware (SEER-H) by Galorath. These are standard tools used by NASA and industry to estimate the cost of new aerospace hardware. This study is an independent verification of the accuracy of these tools and was originally published in 2018. The purpose of this presentation is to circulate the findings of that study among the NASA cost community. Both PRICE Systems and Galorath have completed internal validation studies of their parametric cost estimating tools; however, they only provided the results of the studies and did not detail the exact methods used to perform the validation. In the present study, cost estimators used PRICE TruePlanning and SEER-H to estimate the cost of twelve different past NASA science missions. The estimators were prevented from knowing the actual cost of the missions in an effort to minimize cognitive biases. In the present study, SEER-H had an average error of 23%, median error of -0.3%, with a standard deviation of 43%. PRICE had an average error of 52%, median error of 50%, and standard deviation of 45%. Nine of the twelve mission's actual costs fell within the 80% confidence interval of SEER's probabilistic estimates; however, none of the missions fell within PRICE’s confidence intervals. There were several factors independent of PRICE and SEER-H which may have affected the accuracy of the results in the present study including: uncertainty in the technical data used for the estimates, the methods used to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft component mass and numbers of prototypes, and the experience of the estimators.

SEER↗

DOE OSTI2022

Characterization of modeling and experimental data inconsistencies from burst testing for high-burnup commercial fuel rod applications

Fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal are some of the largest issues remaining in the nuclear industry before rod-average burnup can be increased beyond 62 GWd/tU. The issue is primarily related to the potential for fuel to be dispersed into the reactor primary system, which may increase public risk. One way to prevent dispersal is to avoid cladding burst. The objective of this work is to support the high burnup safety case by evaluating cladding burst under high-burnup, full-length fuel rods and to identify uncertainties that could improve model predictions. The results of this analysis will evaluate realistic, prototypic loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions; support future cladding burst test designs; and inform the development of mechanistic material models. Realistic high-burnup operating conditions were implemented in the BISON fuel performance code to simulate steady-state and LOCA transient fuel rod evolution to the point at which cladding burst occurred. Parametric studies are performed to assess code response to changes in rod internal pressures and heating rates. Results were compared with simulated LOCA experiments to identify inconsistencies between commercial fuel rod analysis and experimental validation. The representative full-length fuel rod LOCA simulation results did not agree with cladding burst tests. Cladding burst tests indicated burst occurring well below (100–150 °C) those calculated in the full-length fuel rod LOCA analysis. Further investigation indicated that the cladding burst tests do not appear to be representative for full-length fuel rods. The inconsistency investigated in this work showed that the differences between the BISON simulation and the experiment's cladding burst conditions arise from an incomplete characterization of the cladding surface temperature, detailed rodlet characterization, lack of cladding strain measurements, and uncertainty in the cladding creep and failure models.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

ECCE sensitivity studies for single hadron transverse single spin asymmetry measurements

Here, we performed feasibility studies for various single transverse spin measurements that are related to the Sivers effect, transversity and the tensor charge, and the Collins fragmentation function. The processes studied include semi-inclusive deep inelastic scattering (SIDIS) where single hadrons (pions and kaons) were detected in addition to the scattered DIS lepton. The data were obtained in pythia6 and geant4 simulated e+p collisions at 18 GeV on 275 GeV, 18 on 100, 10 on 100, and 5 on 41 that use the ECCE detector configuration. Typical DIS kinematics were selected, most notably Q 2 >1 GeV 2 , and cover the x range from 10 -4 to 1. The single spin asymmetries were extracted as a function of x and Q 2 , as well as the semi-inclusive variables z, which corresponds to the momentum fraction the detected hadron carries relative to the struck parton, and P T , which corresponds to the transverse momentum of the detected hadron relative to the virtual photon. They are obtained in azimuthal moments in combinations of the azimuthal angles of the hadron transverse momentum and transverse spin of the nucleon relative to the lepton scattering plane. In order to extract asymmetries, the initially unpolarized MonteCarlo was re-weighted in the true kinematic variables, hadron types and parton flavors based on global fits of fixed target SIDIS experiments and e + e – annihilation data. The expected statistical precision of such measurements is extrapolated to 10 fb –1 and potential systematic uncertainties are approximated given the deviations between true and reconstructed yields. Similar neutron information is obtained by comparing the ECCE e+p pseudo-data with the same from the EIC Yellow Report and scaling the corresponding Yellow Report e+ 3 He pseudo-data uncertainties accordingly. The impact on the knowledge of the Sivers functions, transversity and tensor charges, and the Collins function has then been evaluated in the same phenomenological extractions as in the Yellow Report. Finally, the impact is found to be comparable to that obtained with the parametrized Yellow Report detector and shows that the ECCE detector configuration can fulfill the physics goals on these quantities.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Low-pass spectral analysis of time-resolved serial femtosecond crystallography data

Low-pass spectral analysis (LPSA) is a recently developed dynamics retrieval algorithm showing excellent retrieval properties when applied to model data affected by extreme incompleteness and stochastic weighting. In this work, we apply LPSA to an experimental time-resolved serial femtosecond crystallography (TR-SFX) dataset from the membrane protein bacteriorhodopsin (bR) and analyze its parametric sensitivity. While most dynamical modes are contaminated by nonphysical high-frequency features, we identify two dominant modes, which are little affected by spurious frequencies. The dynamics retrieved using these modes shows an isomerization signal compatible with previous findings. We employ synthetic data with increasing timing uncertainty, increasing incompleteness level, pixel-dependent incompleteness, and photon counting errors to investigate the root cause of the high-frequency contamination of our TR-SFX modes. By testing a range of methods, we show that timing errors comparable to the dynamical periods to be retrieved produce a smearing of dynamical features, hampering dynamics retrieval, but with no introduction of spurious components in the solution, when convergence criteria are met. Using model data, we are able to attribute the high-frequency contamination of low-order dynamical modes to the high levels of noise present in the data. Finally, we propose a method to handle missing observations that produces a substantial dynamics retrieval improvement from synthetic data with a significant static component. Reprocessing of the bR TR-SFX data using the improved method yields dynamical movies with strong isomerization signals compatible with previous findings.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1983

Spatial Fluctuations in the Diffuse Cosmic X-Ray Background

The bright, essentially isotropic, X-ray sky flux above 2 keV yields information on the universe at large distances. However, a definitive understanding of the origin of the flux is lacking. Some fraction of the total flux is contributed by active galactic nuclei and clusters of galaxies, but less than one percent of the total is contributed by the or approximately 3 keV band resolved sources, which is the band where the sky flux is directly observed. Parametric models of AGN (quasar) luminosity function evolution are examined. Most constraints are by the total sky flux. The acceptability of particular models hinges on assumptions currently not directly testable. The comparison with the Einstein Observatory 1 to keV low flux source counts is hampered by spectral uncertainties. A tentative measurement of a large scale dipole anisotropy is consistent with the velocity and direction derived from the dipole in the microwave background. The impact of the X-ray anisotropy limits for other scales on studies of large-scale structure in the universe is sketched. Models of the origins of the X-ray sky flux are reviewed, and future observational programs outlined.

Shafer, R. A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dark Energy Survey year 3 results: Constraints on cosmological parameters and galaxy-bias models from galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing using the redMaGiC sample

We constrain cosmological parameters and galaxy-bias parameters using the combination of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) year-3 data. We describe our modeling framework and choice of scales analyzed, validating their robustness to theoretical uncertainties in small-scale clustering by analyzing simulated data. Using a linear galaxy-bias model and redMaGiC galaxy sample, we obtain 10% constraints on the matter density of the Universe. Here, we also implement a nonlinear galaxy-bias model to probe smaller scales that includes parametrization based on hybrid perturbation theory and find that it leads to a 17% gain in cosmological constraining power. We perform robustness tests of our methodology pipeline and demonstrate stability of the constraints to changes in the theory model. Using the redMaGiC galaxy sample as foreground lens galaxies and adopting the best-fitting cosmological parameters from DES year-1 data, we find the galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements to exhibit significant signals akin to decorrelation between galaxies and mass on large scales, which is not expected in any current models. This likely systematic measurement error biases our constraints on galaxy bias and the S 8 parameter. We find that a scale-, redshift- and sky-area-independent phenomenological decorrelation parameter can effectively capture this inconsistency between the galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing. We trace the source of this correlation to a color-dependent photometric issue and minimize its impact on our result by changing the selection criteria of redMaGiC galaxies. Using this new sample, our constraints on the S 8 parameter are consistent with previous studies and we find a small shift in the Ω m constraints compared to the fiducial redMaGiC sample. We infer the constraints on the mean host-halo mass of the redMaGiC galaxies in this new sample from the large-scale bias constraints, finding the galaxies occupy halos of mass approximately 1.6 × 10 13 M ⊙ /h.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1985

New formalism for two-photon quantum optics. I - Quadrature phases and squeezed states. II - Mathematical foundation and compact notation

A new formalism for analyzing two-photon devices, such as parametric amplifiers and phase-conjugate mirrors, is proposed in part I, focusing on the properties and the significance of the quadrature-phase amplitudes and two-mode squeezed states. Time-stationary quasi-probability noise is also detailed for the case of Gaussian noise, and uncertainty principles for the quadrature-phase amplitudes are outlined, as well as some important properties of the two-mode states. Part II establishes a mathematical foundation for the formalism, with introduction of a vector notation for compact representation of two-mode properties. Fundamental unitary operators and special quantum states are also examined with an emphasis on the two-mode squeezed states. The results are applied to a previously studied degenerate limit (epsilon = 0).

Caves, C. M.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data-Driven Modeling and Correction of Vehicle Dynamics

We develop a data-driven framework for learning and correcting nonautonomous vehicle dynamics. Physics-based vehicle models are often simplified for tractability and therefore exhibit inherent model-form uncertainty, motivating the need for data-driven correction. Moreover, nonautonomous dynamics are governed by time-dependent control inputs, which pose challenges in learning predictive models directly from temporal snapshot data. To address these, we reformulate the vehicle dynamics via a local parameterization of the time-dependent inputs, yielding a modified system composed ofa sequence of local parametric dynamical systems. Here, we approximate these parametric systems using two complementary approaches. First, we employ the dimension reduction and interpolation in parameter space (DRIPS) methodology to construct efficient linear surrogate models, equipped with lifted observable spaces and manifold-based operator interpolation. This enables data-efficient learning of vehicle models whose dynamics admit accurate linear representations in the lifted spaces. Second, for more strongly nonlinear systems, we employ flow map learning (FML), a deep neural network (DNN) approach that approximates the parametric evolution map without requiring special treatment of nonlinearities. We further extend FML with a transfer-learning-based model correction procedure, enabling the correction of misspecified prior models using only a sparse set of high-fidelity or experimental measurements, without assuming a prescribed form for the correction term. Through a suite of numerical experiments on unicycle, simplified bicycle, and slip-based bicycle models, we demonstrate that DRIPS offers robust and highly data-efficient learning of nonautonomous vehicle dynamics, while FML provides expressive nonlinear modeling and effective correction of model-form errors under severe data scarcity.

data-driven modeling↗

DOE OSTI2022

Extraction of low-energy constants of single- and double-β decays from lattice QCD: A sensitivity analysis

Lattice quantum chromodynamics (LQCD) has the promise of constraining low-energy constants (LECs) of nuclear effective field theories (EFTs) from first-principles calculations that incorporate the dynamics of quarks and gluons. Given the Euclidean and finite-volume nature of LQCD outputs, complex mappings are developed in recent years to obtain the Minkowski and infinite-volume counterparts of LQCD observables. In particular, as LQCD is moving toward computing a set of important few-nucleon matrix elements at the physical values of the quark masses, it is important to investigate whether the anticipated precision of LQCD spectra and matrix elements will be sufficient to guarantee tighter constraints on the relevant LECs than those already obtained from phenomenology, considering the nontrivial mappings involved. With a focus on the leading-order LECs of the pionless EFT, L 1,A and $g$$^{NN}_{v}$, which parametrize, respectively, the strength of the isovector axial two-body current in a single-β decay (and other related processes such pp fusion), and of the isotensor contact two-body operator in the neutrinoless double-β decay within the light neutrino exchange scenario, the expected uncertainty on future extractions of L 1,A and $g$$^{NN}_{v}$ are examined using synthetic data at the physical values of the quark masses. It is observed that achieving small uncertainties in L 1,A will be challenging, and (sub)percent-level precision in the two-nucleon spectra and matrix elements is essential in reducing the uncertainty on this LEC compared to the existing constraints. On the other hand, the short-distance coupling of the neutrinoless double-β decay, $g$$^{NN}_{v}$, is shown to be less sensitive to uncertainties on both LQCD energies and the matrix element, and can likely be constrained with percent-level precision in the upcoming LQCD calculations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Extraction of the Collins-Soper Kernel from a Joint Analysis of Experimental and Lattice Data

We present a first joint extraction of the Collins-Soper kernel (CSK) combining experimental and lattice QCD data in the context of an analysis of transverse-momentum-dependent distributions (TMDs). Based on a neural-network parametrization, we perform a Bayesian reweighting of an existing fit of TMDs using lattice data, as well as a joint TMD fit to lattice and experimental data. We consistently find that the inclusion of lattice information shifts the central value of the CSK by approximately 10% and reduces its uncertainty by 40%–50%, highlighting the potential of lattice inputs to improve TMD extractions.

Avkhadiev, Artur [Massachusetts Inst. of Technolog↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physical-mass calculation of ρ ( 770 ) and K * ( 892 ) resonance parameters via π π and K π scattering amplitudes from lattice QCD

We present our study of the ρ ( 770 ) and K * ( 892 ) resonances from lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) employing domain-wall fermions at physical quark masses. We determine the finite-volume energy spectrum in various momentum frames and obtain phase-shift parametrizations via the Lüscher formalism and as a final step the complex resonance poles of the π π and K π elastic scattering amplitudes via an analytical continuation of the models. By sampling a large number of representative sets of underlying energy-level fits, we also assign a systematic uncertainty to our final results. This is a significant extension to data-driven analysis methods that have been used in lattice QCD to date, due to the two-step nature of the formalism. Our final pole positions, M + i Γ / 2 , with all statistical and systematic errors exposed, are M K * = 893 ( 2 ) ( 8 ) ( 54 ) ( 2 ) MeV and Γ K * = 51 ( 2 ) ( 11 ) ( 3 ) ( 0 ) MeV for the K * ( 892 ) resonance and M ρ = 796 ( 5 ) ( 15 ) ( 48 ) ( 2 ) MeV and Γ ρ = 192 ( 10 ) ( 28 ) ( 12 ) ( 0 ) MeV for the ρ ( 770 ) resonance. The four differently grouped sources of uncertainties are, in the order of occurrence: statistical, data-driven systematic, an estimation of systematic effects beyond our computation (dominated by the fact that we employ a single lattice spacing), and the error from the scale-setting uncertainty on our ensemble. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mass Modeling of NEP Power Conversion Concepts for Human Mars Exploration

The specific mass (mass per unit of electric power output) of an NEP power conversion system is an important metric for the performance and feasibility of a crewed NEP vehicle. This work explores a component level buildup of the specific mass for a crewed NEP vehicle. The buildup is highly parametric and avoids being tied to specific technologies where practical. This allows the specific mass to be calculated for a variety of assumptions and operating conditions and be used to optimize particular design variables or compare different system configurations. The values of specific mass are dependent on assumptions with significant uncertainty; comparison between cases and trends observed in the models are the main goal of the work presented here. To demonstrate the level of insight this type of modeling can provide, the impacts of compressor inlet temperature, turbine inlet temperature, and radiator pressure drop on specific mass are explored. In addition, the specific mass can be used to assess the benefit of separating the radiator and reactor loop from the power conversion cycle.

NEP↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mass Modeling of NEP Power Conversion Concepts for Human Mars Exploration

nep↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear safety Enhanced: A Deep dive into current and future RAVEN applications

As the horizon of nuclear energy expands with the advent of small modular reactors, IV generation reactors, and fusion reactors, there is a growing perspective that the licensing process could benefit from a more comprehensive approach. Moving beyond traditional deterministic and PRA analysis might pave the way for a novel safety analysis paradigm propelled by the increasing computational power at our disposal. This paper explores different methodologies that can improve the outcomes of nuclear safety analysis. These range from uncertainty quantification techniques, aimed at enhancing the precision of safety margins, to deploying dynamic event trees by driving system code simulations, capturing the potential evolutions of severe accidents. These methodologies introduce innovative dimensions to safety analysis, considering the consequences of postulated events and the dynamics of accident sequences. However, they also bring forth challenges, especially in managing the complexity and sheer volume of potential scenarios. The paper touches upon some strategies to counter these challenges, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and continuous evolution in the face of emerging nuclear safety concerns. Additionally, the paper sheds light on the need for advanced tools to apply these methodologies. Among these tools is RAVEN, an open-source software designed for parametric and probabilistic analyses. Its core components, including distribution, sampler, and reduced order model, enable various applications, from risk assessment and mitigation to dynamic learning and plant control logic simulations.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1990

EVA/ORU model architecture using RAMCOST

A parametrically driven simulation model is presented in order to provide a detailed insight into the effects of various input parameters in the life testing of a modular space suit. The RAMCOST model employed is a user-oriented simulation model for studying the life-cycle costs of designs under conditions of uncertainty. The results obtained from the EVA simulated model are used to assess various mission life testing parameters such as the number of joint motions per EVA cycle time, part availability, and number of inspection requirements. RAMCOST first simulates EVA completion for NASA application using a probabilistic like PERT network. With the mission time heuristically determined, RAMCOST then models different orbital replacement unit policies with special application to the astronaut's space suit functional designs.

Ntuen, Celestine A.↗