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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 469 records · Page 26

Automatic generation of efficient orderings of events for scheduling applications

In scheduling a set of tasks, it is often not known with certainty how long a given event will take. We call this duration uncertainty. Duration uncertainty is a primary obstacle to the successful completion of a schedule. If a duration of one task is longer than expected, the remaining tasks are delayed. The delay may result in the abandonment of the schedule itself, a phenomenon known as schedule breakage. One response to schedule breakage is on-line, dynamic rescheduling. A more recent alternative is called proactive rescheduling. This method uses statistical data about the durations of events in order to anticipate the locations in the schedule where breakage is likely prior to the execution of the schedule. It generates alternative schedules at such sensitive points, which can be then applied by the scheduler at execution time, without the delay incurred by dynamic rescheduling. This paper proposes a technique for making proactive error management more effective. The technique is based on applying a similarity-based method of clustering to the problem of identifying similar events in a set of events.

Morris, Robert A.↗

Foundations for statistical-physical precipitation retrieval from passive microwave satellite measurements. I - Brightness-temperature properties of a time-dependent cloud-radiation model

The relationship between emerging microwave brightness temperatures (T(B)s) and vertically distributed mixtures of liquid and frozen hydrometeors was investigated, using a cloud-radiation model, in order to establish the framework for a hybrid statistical-physical rainfall retrieval algorithm. Although strong relationships were found between the T(B) values and various rain parameters, these correlations are misleading in that the T(B)s are largely controlled by fluctuations in the ice-particle mixing ratios, which in turn are highly correlated to fluctuations in liquid-particle mixing ratios. However, the empirically based T(B)-rain-rate (T(B)-RR) algorithms can still be used as tools for estimating precipitation if the hydrometeor profiles used for T(B)-RR algorithms are not specified in an ad hoc fashion.

Smith, Eric A.↗

Conformational Characteristics of Poly(tetrafluoroethylene) (PTFE) Based Upon Ab Initio Electronic Structure Calculations on Model Molecules

Conformational energy contours of perfluoroalkanes, determined from ab initio calculations, confirm the well-known spitting of trans states into two minima at plus or minus 17 degrees but also show that the gauche states split as well, with minima at plus or minus 124 degrees and plus or minus 84 in order to relieve steric crowding. The directions of such split distortions from the perfectly staggered states are strongly coupled for adjacent pairs of bonds in a manner identical to the intradyad pair for poly (isobutylene) chains. These conformational characteristics are fully represented by a six-state rotational isomeric state (RIS) model for PTFE comprised of t(+), t(-), g(sup +)+, g(sup +)-, g(sup -) + and g(sup -)-states, located at the split energy minima. The resultant 6 x 6 statistical weight matrix is described by first-order interaction parameters for the g+(+) (ca. 0.6 kcal/mol) and g+- (ca. 2.0 kcal/mol) states, and second order parameters for the g(sup +)+g(sup +)+ (ca 0.6 kcal/mol) and g(sup +)+g(sup -)+ (ca. 1.0 kcal/mol) states. This six-state RIS model, without adjustment of the geometric or energy parameters as determined from the ab initio calculations, predicts the unperturbed chain dimensions and the fraction of gauche bonds as a function of temperature for PTFE in good agreement with available experimental values.

Smith, Grant D.↗

Analysis of Long-Term Quality Control Data for a 137 Cs Dosimetry Calibration Source

Strict quality assurance programs are required for many radiological applications, but these seldom exist for verifying dosimetry calibration sources. After initial characterization of a dosimetry calibration facility, quality control procedures are recommended to ensure the early detection of any changes or malfunctions. These also result in refined knowledge about average dose rate and experimental variations in dose delivery. This paper describes the implementation of a phase I quality control protocol for a 137 Cs dosimetry calibration source and includes an analysis of the resulting data collected over a 24-mo period. During this time, substantial data was collected to establish trial control limits. Air kerma rate measurements were obtained using an ion chamber and were adjusted for decay, corrected for ambient temperature, pressure and humidity, and then analyzed using quality control charts. Three variations of rational subgrouping methods were used in order to find assignable causes of error, and Nelson's Rules were followed to detect any non-random statistical variations. Measurements were subgrouped according to same-day measurements in order to detect positional errors as well as atmospheric correction errors. Additionally, measurements were subgrouped according to analogous experimental setups in order to detect failure in equipment or incorrect settings. Both were analyzed using the X-bar and R chart method. Similarly, individuals and moving ranges charts were used to carefully examine each position in order to observe any situational errors that may occur which include timing, positional, or interference errors. Each method was successful in identifying unique out-of-control data points that occurred during the phase I application of forming control limits. Furthermore, over the 24-mo period, enough data points were deemed in-control to establish reliable trial limits. Future experiments will include the phase II application of gaining more reliable measurements in order to fine-tune the limits, as well as performing a designed experiment, where variables are purposefully changed in order to test the variation of the data.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Monte Carlo MP2-F12 for Noncovalent Interactions: The C 60 Dimer

A scalable stochastic algorithm is presented that can evaluate explicitly correlated (F12) second-order many-body perturbation (MP2) energies of weak, noncovalent, intermolecular interactions. It first transforms the formulas of the MP2 and F12 energy differences into a short sum of high-dimensional integrals of Green’s functions in real space and imaginary time. Furthermore, these integrals are then evaluated by the Monte Carlo method augmented by parallel execution, redundant-walker convergence acceleration, direct-sampling autocorrelation elimination, and control-variate error reduction. By sharing electron-pair walkers across the supermolecule and its subsystems spanned by the joint basis set, the statistical uncertainty is reduced by one to 2 orders of magnitude in the MP2 binding energy corrected for the basis-set incompleteness and superposition errors. The method predicts the MP2-F12/aug-cc-pVDZ binding energy of 19.1 ± 4.0 kcal mol –1 for the C 60 dimer at the center distance of 9.748 Å.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Objective Lightning Forecasting at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System Data

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in Florida include a probability of thunderstorm occurrence in their daily morning briefings. This information is used by personnel involved in determining the possibility of violating Launch Commit Criteria, evaluating Flight Rules for the Space Shuttle, and daily planning for ground operation activities on Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/CCAFS. Much of the current lightning probability forecast is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The forecasters requested that a lightning probability forecast tool based on statistical analysis of historical warm-season (May - September) data be developed in order to increase the objectivity of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast. The tool is a set of statistical lightning forecast equations that provide a lightning occurrence probability for the day by 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) during the warm season. This study used 15 years (1989-2003) of warm season data to develop the objective forecast equations. The local CCAFS 1000 UTC sounding was used to calculate stability parameters for equation predictors. The Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The CGLSS data have been found to be more reliable indicators of lightning in the area than surface observations through local informal analyses. This work was based on the results from two earlier research projects. Everitt (1999) used surface observations and rawinsonde data to develop logistic regression equations that forecast the daily thunderstorm probability at CCAFS. The Everitt (1999) equations showed an improvement in skill over the Neumann-Pfeffer thunderstorm index (Neumann 1971), which uses multiple linear regression, and also persistence and climatology forecasts. Lericos et al. (2002) developed lightning distributions over the Florida peninsula based on specific flow regimes. The flow regimes were inferred from the average wind direction in the 1000-700 mb layer at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), Florida, and the lightning data were from the National Lightning Detection Network. The results suggested that the daily flow regime may be an important predictor of lightning occurrence on KSC/CCAFS.

Lambert, Winifred↗

An analytic treatment of gravitational microlensing for sources of finite size at large optical depths

Statistical methods are developed for gravitational lensing in order to obtain analytic expressions for the average surface brightness that include the effects of microlensing by stellar (or other compact) masses within the lensing galaxy. The primary advance here is in utilizing a Markoff technique to obtain expressions that are valid for sources of finite size when the surface density of mass in the lensing galaxy is large. The finite size of the source is probably the key consideration for the occurrence of microlensing by individual stars. For the intensity from a particular location, the parameter which governs the importance of microlensing is determined. Statistical methods are also formulated to assess the time variation of the surface brightness due to the random motion of the masses that cause the microlensing.

Deguchi, Shuji↗

Full forward model of galaxy clustering statistics with AbacusSummit light cones

ABSTRACT Novel summary statistics beyond the standard 2-point correlation function (2PCF) are necessary to capture the full astrophysical and cosmological information from the small-scale (r < 30h−1Mpc) galaxy clustering. However, the analysis of beyond-2PCF statistics on small scales is challenging because we lack the appropriate treatment of observational systematics for arbitrary summary statistics of the galaxy field. In this paper, we develop a full forward modelling pipeline for a wide range of summary statistics using the large high-fidelity AbacusSummit light cones that account for many systematic effects as well as remain flexible and computationally efficient to enable posterior sampling. We apply our forward model approach to a fully realistic mock galaxy catalog and demonstrate that we can recover unbiased constraints on the underlying galaxy–halo connection model using two separate summary statistics: the standard 2PCF and the novel k-th nearest neighbour (kNN) statistics, which are sensitive to correlation functions of all orders. We will demonstrate its strong constraining power on extended galaxy–halo connection models and cosmology in follow up papers. We expect this to become a powerful approach when applying to upcoming surveys such as DESI where we can leverage a multitude of summary statistics across a wide redshift range to maximally extract information from the non-linear scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Statistics and sensitivity of axion wind detection with the homogeneous precession domain of superfluid helium-3

The homogeneous precession domain (HPD) of superfluid He 3 has recently been identified as a detection medium which might provide sensitivity to the axion-nucleon coupling g a N N competitive with, or surpassing, existing experimental proposals. In this work, we make a detailed study of the statistical and dynamical properties of the HPD system in order to make realistic projections for a full-fledged experimental program. We include the effects of clock error and measurement error in a concrete readout scheme using superconducting qubits and quantum metrology. This work also provides a more general framework to describe the statistics associated with the axion gradient coupling through the treatment of a transient resonance with a nonstationary background in a time-series analysis. Incorporating an optimal data-taking and analysis strategy, we project a sensitivity approaching g a N N ∼ 10 − 12 GeV − 1 across a decade in axion mass. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Constraining the Statistics of Population III Binaries

We perform a cosmological simulation in order to model the growth and evolution of Population III (Pop III) stellar systems in a range of host minihalo environments. A Pop III multiple system forms in each of the ten minihaloes, and the overall mass function is top-heavy compared to the currently observed initial mass function in the Milky Way. Using a sink particle to represent each growing protostar, we examine the binary characteristics of the multiple systems, resolving orbits on scales as small as 20 AU. We find a binary fraction of approx. 36, with semi-major axes as large as 3000 AU. The distribution of orbital periods is slightly peaked at approx. < 900 yr, while the distribution of mass ratios is relatively flat. Of all sink particles formed within the ten minihaloes, approx. 50 are lost to mergers with larger sinks, and 50 of the remaining sinks are ejected from their star-forming disks. The large binary fraction may have important implications for Pop III evolution and nucleosynthesis, as well as the final fate of the first stars.

Statistics↗

Stochastic Models of Tropical Rain-Rate Fields

Because of the extreme variability of rain rate in space and time and the difficulties with remote sensing methods of measuring rain rates, accurate determination of rainfall over large areas and time periods has long been a problem for hydrologists, meteorogists, and climatologists. A number of statistical models of rain have been developed in order to investigate the impact of rain variability on satellite remote sensing methods, validation of satellite rain products, and generation of rain maps with accompanying error estimates. These models may be useful in examining 'sub-grid scale' issues in representing precipitation in numerical mdoels. A stochastic model will first be described which can generate time-dependent high-resolution spatial rain fields with space and time correlations similar to those seen in rain data, as well as representing the presence of areas with zero rain rate and log-normally distributed rain rates where there is rain. A simpler model derived from this, formulated in the spectral domain, seems to imply fractal-like rain statistics at small scales when fit to rain data.

Bell, Thomas L.↗

Federal Automotive Statistical Tool: Updates to EVSE Reporting (Federal Electric Vehicle Agency Round-table, October 2023) [Slides]

This presentation presents an overview of coming changes to how federal agencies with motor vehicles will submit required information about the electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) inventory and planned deployments through the Federal Automotive Statistical Tool (FAST). This presentation is intended for delivery via WebEx/GoToMeeting at the October 2023 meeting of the DOE-organized Federal Electric Vehicle Agency Round-table (FEVAR). FAST is a web-based information management tool developed and maintained by Idaho National Laboratory and funded by GSA's Office of Government-wide Policy and DOE's Federal Energy Management Program.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Kepler's Multiple Planet Systems

Among the 1800 Kepler targets that have candidate planets, 20% have two or more candidate planets. While most of these objects have not yet been confirmed as true planets, several considerations strongly suggest hat the vast majority of these multi-candidate systems are true planetary systems. Virtually all candidate systems are stable, as tested by numerical integrations (assuming a nominal mass-radius relationship). Statistical studies performed on these candidates reveal a great deal about the architecture of planetary systems, including the typical spacing of orbits and flatness of planetary systems. The distribution of observed period ratios shows that the vast majority ofcandidate pairs are neither in nor near low-order mean motion resonances. Nonetheless, there are small but statistically significant excesses of candidate pairs both in resonance and spaced slightly too far apart to be in resonance, particularly near the 2:1 resonance. The characteristics of the confirmed Kepler multi-planet systems will also be discussed.

Lissauer, Jack↗

INTERFUEL: FY22 Federal Fleet Reporting [Slides]

This presentation presents an overview of and timeline for coming changes to how federal agencies with motor vehicles will submit required information about the motor vehicles, fueling centers, and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) inventory through the Federal Automotive Statistical Tool (FAST). The presentation provides information on changes throughout the FAST system as well as changes planned for implementation in FY 2023 and later. This presentation is intended for delivery via WebEx/GoToMeeting at the September 14, 2022 meeting of the DOE-sponsored INTERFUEL working group. FAST is a web-based information management tool developed and maintained by Idaho National Laboratory and funded by GSA's Office of Government-wide Policy and DOE's Federal Energy Management Program.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Kepler's Multiple Planet Systems

Among the 1800 Kepler targets that have candidate planets, 20% have two or more candidate planets. While most of these objects have not yet been confirmed as true planets, several considerations strongly suggest that the vast majority of these multi-candidate systems are true planetary systems. Virtually all candidate systems are stable, as tested by numerical integrations (assuming a nominal mass-radius relationship). Statistical studies performed on these candidates reveal a great deal about the architecture of planetary systems, including the typical spacing of orbits and flatness of planetary systems. The distribution of observed period ratios shows that the vast majority of candidate pairs are neither in nor near low-order mean motion resonances. Nonetheless, there are small but statistically significant excesses of candidate pairs both in resonance and spaced slightly too far apart to be in resonance, particularly near the 2:1 resonance. The characteristics of the confirmed Kepler multi-planet systems will also be discussed.

Lissauer, Jack J.↗

Federal Automotive Statisical Tool: FAST Changes & Data Call Preparation (INTERFUEL - September 2023) [Slides]

This presentation presents an overview of and timeline for coming changes to how federal agencies with motor vehicles will submit required information about the motor vehicles, fueling centers, and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) inventory through the Federal Automotive Statistical Tool (FAST). The presentation provides information on changes throughout the FAST system as well as changes planned for implementation in FY 2023 and later. This presentation is intended for delivery via WebEx/GoToMeeting at the September 13, 2023 meeting of the DOE-sponsored INTERFUEL working group. FAST is a web-based information management tool developed and maintained by Idaho National Laboratory and funded by GSA's Office of Government-wide Policy and DOE's Federal Energy Management Program.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Federal Automotive Statistical Tool: Federal Vehicle Fleet Reporting Update (Combined FedFleet/FEVAR/INTERFUEL Meeting, November 2023) [Slides]

This presentation presents an overview of coming changes to how federal agencies with motor vehicles will submit required information about the electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) inventory and planned deployments through the Federal Automotive Statistical Tool (FAST), as well as updates on fleet reporting in general. This presentation is intended for delivery via WebEx/GoToMeeting at the November 2023 meeting of the DOE/GSA jointly-organized combined meeting of the Federal Electric Vehicle Agency Round-table (FEVAR), FedFleet, and INTERFUEL working groups. FAST is a web-based information management tool developed and maintained by Idaho National Laboratory and funded by GSA's Office of Government-wide Policy and DOE's Federal Energy Management Program.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗