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DOE OSTI2022

Integrating Deep Learning and Hydrodynamic Modeling to Improve the Great Lakes Forecast

The Laurentian Great Lakes, one of the world’s largest surface freshwater systems, pose a modeling challenge in seasonal forecast and climate projection. While physics-based hydrodynamic modeling is a fundamental approach, improving the forecast accuracy remains critical. In recent years, machine learning (ML) has quickly emerged in geoscience applications, but its application to the Great Lakes hydrodynamic prediction is still in its early stages. This work is the first one to explore a deep learning approach to predicting spatiotemporal distributions of the lake surface temperature (LST) in the Great Lakes. Our study shows that the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, trained with the limited data from hypothetical monitoring networks, can provide consistent and robust performance. The LSTM prediction captured the LST spatiotemporal variabilities across the five Great Lakes well, suggesting an effective and efficient way for monitoring network design in assisting the ML-based forecast. Furthermore, we employed an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) technique named SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to uncover how the features impact the LSTM prediction. Our XAI analysis shows air temperature is the most influential feature for predicting LST in the trained LSTM. The relatively large bias in the LSTM prediction during the spring and fall was associated with substantial heterogeneity of air temperature during the two seasons. In contrast, the physics-based hydrodynamic model performed better in spring and fall yet exhibited relatively large biases during the summer stratification period. Finally, we developed a statistical integration of the hydrodynamic modeling and deep learning results based on the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). The integration further enhanced prediction accuracy, suggesting its potential for next-generation Great Lakes forecast systems.

Xue, Pengfei (ORCID:000000025702421X)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physics-informed graph neural networks for predicting cetane number with systematic data quality analysis

Designing alternative fuels for advanced compression ignition engines necessitates a predictive model for cetane number (CN). In this study, the physics-informed graph neural networks are introduced for a reliable CN prediction by considering molecular features pertinent to the physical properties of molecules that affect CN. The reliability of measured data is another key factor to consider for improving the predictive model. Various experimental instruments for measuring CN exist, including standard and non-standard methods. In this regard, a systematic data quality analysis was carried out for the total 630 CNs collected from literature and new measurements in this study using Advanced Fuel Ignition Delay Analyzer (AFIDA). The results from this data curation process were reflected in the model by imposing lower sample weights on the data coming from less reliable measurement techniques. This approach effectively maximized the prediction accuracy while incorporating data from all available sources. Using the sample weights decreased the mean absolute error (MAE) up to 0.8 CN units. The accuracy was also improved by introducing the CN-related physical properties (the number of hydrogen bond donors and acceptors); the test set MAE is 5.74 and 7.01 for the model with and without such properties, respectively. Investigating molecular structural effects on CN was also carried out to gain chemical insights into factors used to design new fuel candidates. The dimensionality reduction analysis of feature vectors showed a clear clustering in terms of functional groups and CN and the structural effect derived from the model was consistent with the physicochemical insights. Finally, this physics-informed model and data curation would be helpful for accurate CN prediction and inform rational fuel design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of Steady-State and Dynamic Mass and Energy Constrained Neural Networks for Distributed Chemical Systems Using Noisy Transient Data

The paper presents the development of algorithms for mass and energy constrained neural network models that can exactly conserve the overall mass and energy of distributed chemical process systems, even though the noisy transient data used for optimal model training violate the same. In contrast to approximately satisfying mass and energy balance constraints of a system by soft penalization of objective function, algorithms have been developed for solving equality-constrained nonlinear optimization problems, thus providing the guarantee of exactly satisfying the system mass and energy conservation laws. For developing dynamic mass-energy constrained network models for distributed systems, hybrid series and parallel dynamic-static neural networks have been leveraged. The developed algorithms for solving both the training and forward problems are validated using both steady-state and dynamic data in the presence of various noise characteristics. The developed data-driven algorithms are flexible to exactly satisfy mass and energy balance constraints for dynamic chemical processes if the system holdup information is available. The proposed network structures and algorithms are applied to the development of data-driven lumped and distributed models of an adiabatic superheater/reheater system, a nonisothermal continuous stirred tank reactor, as well as an electrically heated plug-flow reactor system where one form of energy gets transformed to another. It has been observed that the mass-energy constrained neural networks yield a root mean squared error of <1% with respect to the system truth for the case studies evaluated in this work.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning Eliminates Reanalysis Warm Bias and Reveals Weaker Winter Surface Cooling Over Arctic Sea Ice

The surface energy budget governs Arctic sea-ice growth/melt, yet observations are sparse, and reanalysis data sets suffer from systematic biases. Here, we train a neural network with observational data to bias-correct hourly ERA5 fluxes over Arctic ice-covered regions (≥70°N; sea-ice concentration >80%) for 1994–2024. Training data cover two full seasonal cycles and different sea-ice regimes. The neural network reduces RMSE for net shortwave radiation by ∼40%, downward longwave radiation by ∼16% and the total surface energy budget by ∼55%, eliminating the wintertime warm bias of ∼4 K in ERA5. Wintertime surface cooling is reduced by ∼50%, yielding thermodynamic ice-growth estimates of ∼80–120 cm, consistent with SMOS–CryoSat satellite thickness increases and in contrast to the 150–200 cm growth implied by ERA5. Our bias-corrected data capture the observed clear/cloudy states of the winter boundary layer and can be used to study Arctic climatology, evaluate climate models and drive sea-ice-ocean models.

Hossain, Akil [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Distribution System Operations: A Tutorial and Survey

Here, the rapid evolution of modern electric power distribution systems into complex networks of interconnected active devices, distributed generation (DG), and storage poses increasing difficulties for system operators. The large-scale integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) and the rapid exchange of measurement data via communication networks present major opportunities for advancing grid operations but also introduce greater uncertainty, higher data dimensionality, more complex network and device models, and challenging control and optimization problems. Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms are promising in addressing these challenges. However, they have not been effectively adapted for power systems applications, requiring extensive customization for implementation and evaluation. This has resulted in reproducibility challenges and a steep learning curve for researchers new to applying DRL algorithms to the power systems domain. To bridge these gaps, this tutorial aims to serve as a valuable resource for researchers interested in exploring learning-based algorithms to operate active power distribution networks. Specifically, this work presents a generalized process for translating sequential decision-making problems in power distribution systems into Markov decision process (MDP) formulations, illustrated through concrete grid service examples. Additionally, we introduce a simple environment design strategy to develop and evaluate example DRL algorithms for distribution system applications, complete with an included code repository to guide users through environment construction.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting Solar Energetic Particles Using SDO/HMI Vector Magnetic Data Products and a Bidirectional LSTM Network

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) are an essential source of space radiation, and are hazardous for humans in space, spacecraft, and technology in general. In this paper, we propose a deep-learning method, specifically a bidirectional long short-term memory (biLSTM) network, to predict if an active region (AR) would produce an SEP event given that (i) the AR will produce an M- or X-class flare and a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the flare, or (ii) the AR will produce an M- or X-class flare regardless of whether or not the flare is associated with a CME. The data samples used in this study are collected from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite's X-ray flare catalogs provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information. We select M- and X-class flares with identified ARs in the catalogs for the period between 2010 and 2021, and find the associations of flares, CMEs, and SEPs in the Space Weather Database of Notifications, Knowledge, Information during the same period. Each data sample contains physical parameters collected from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory. Experimental results based on different performance metrics demonstrate that the proposed biLSTM network is better than related machine-learning algorithms for the two SEP prediction tasks studied here. We also discuss extensions of our approach for probabilistic forecasting and calibration with empirical evaluation

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hypothesis-Agnostic Network-Based Analysis of Real-World Data Suggests Ondansetron is Associated with Lower COVID-19 Any Cause Mortality

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic generated a massive amount of clinical data, which potentially hold yet undiscovered answers related to COVID-19 morbidity, mortality, long-term effects, and therapeutic solutions.Objectives: The objectives of this study were (1) to identify novel predictors of COVID-19 any cause mortality by employing artificial intelligence analytics on real-world data through a hypothesis-agnostic approach and (2) to determine if these effects are maintained after adjusting for potential confounders and to what degree they are moderated by other variables.Methods: A Bayesian statistics-based artificial intelligence data analytics tool (bAIcis®) within the Interrogative Biology® platform was used for Bayesian network learning and hypothesis generation to analyze 16,277 PCR+ patients from a database of 279,281 inpatients and outpatients tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection by antigen, antibody, or PCR methods during the first pandemic year in Central Florida. This approach generated Bayesian networks that enabled unbiased identification of significant predictors of any cause mortality for specific COVID-19 patient populations. These findings were further analyzed by logistic regression, regression by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, and bootstrapping.Results: We found that in the COVID-19 PCR+ patient cohort, early use of the antiemetic agent ondansetron was associated with decreased any cause mortality 30 days post-PCR+ testing in mechanically ventilated patients.Conclusions: The results demonstrate how a real-world COVID-19-focused data analysis using artificial intelligence can generate unexpected yet valid insights that could possibly support clinical decision making and minimize the future loss of lives and resources.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Neural-network extraction of unpolarised transverse-momentum-dependent distributions

We present the first extraction of transverse-momentum-dependent distributions of unpolarized quarks from experimental Drell-Yan data using neural networks to parametrize their nonperturbative part. We show that neural networks outperform traditional parametrizations providing a more accurate description of data. This Letter establishes the feasibility of using neural networks to explore the multidimensional partonic structure of hadrons and paves the way for more accurate determinations based on machine-learning techniques.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Do Neural Networks Trained with Topological Features Learn Different Internal Representations?

There is a growing body of work that leverages features extracted via topological data analysis to train machine learning models. While this field, sometimes known as topological machine learning (TML), has seen some notable successes, an understanding of how the process of learning from topological features differs from the process of learning from raw data is still limited. In this work, we begin to address one component of this larger issue by asking whether a model trained with topological features learns internal representations of data that are fundamentally different than those learned by a model trained with the original raw data. To quantify ``different'', we exploit two popular metrics that can be used to measure the similarity of the hidden representations of data within neural networks, neural stitching and centered kernel alignment. From these we draw a range of conclusions about how training with topological features does and does not change the representations that a model learns. Perhaps unsurprisingly, we find that structurally, the hidden representations of models trained and evaluated on topological features differ substantially compared to those trained and evaluated on the corresponding raw data. On the other hand, our experiments show that in some cases, these representations can be reconciled (at least to the degree required to solve the corresponding task) using a simple affine transformation. We conjecture that this means that neural networks trained on raw data may extract some limited topological features in the process of making predictions.

McGuire, Sarah L.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Rapid data-driven model reduction of nonlinear dynamical systems including chemical reaction networks using ℓ 1 -regularization

We develop a new data-driven paradigm for efficient model reduction of a broad class of nonlinear dynamical systems. Our model reduction method directly enables the interpretation of key components of the dynamical system, unlike traditional projection-based model reduction methods that focus on reducing computational complexity more than interpretability. Our method is not application specific and is simple to implement on nonlinear dynamical systems arising from a variety of different fields. It requires minimal parameterization using a single parameter to trade-off between model complexity and estimation error. We use a data-driven paradigm to formulate model reduction as an efficient convex optimization problem that scales polynomially in the original size of the complex system, enabling systems with as many as thousands of components to be reduced in a matter of minutes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fourier Neural Networks as Function Approximators and Differential Equation Solvers

We present a Fourier neural network (FNN) that can be mapped directly to the Fourier decomposition. The choice of activation and loss function yields results that replicate a Fourier series expansion closely while preserving a straightforward architecture with a single hidden layer. The simplicity of this network architecture facilitates the integration with any other higher-complexity networks, at a data pre- or postprocessing stage. We validate this FNN on naturally periodic smooth functions and on piecewise continuous periodic functions. We showcase the use of this FNN for modeling or solving partial differential equations with periodic boundary conditions. The main advantages of the current approach are the validity of the solution outside the training region, interpretability of the trained model, and simplicity of use.

Fourier decomposition↗

DOE OSTI2023

From remotely-sensed solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence to ecosystem structure, function, and service: Part II—Harnessing data

Although our observing capabilities of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) have been growing rapidly, the quality and consistency of SIF datasets are still in an active stage of research and development. As a result, there are considerable inconsistencies among diverse SIF datasets at all scales and the widespread applications of them have led to contradictory findings. The present review is the second of the two companion reviews, and data oriented. It aims to (1) synthesize the variety, scale, and uncertainty of existing SIF datasets, (2) synthesize the diverse applications in the sector of ecology, agriculture, hydrology, climate, and socioeconomics, and (3) clarify how such data inconsistency superimposed with the theoretical complexities laid out in may impact process interpretation of various applications and contribute to inconsistent findings. We emphasize that accurate interpretation of the functional relationships between SIF and other ecological indicators is contingent upon complete understanding of SIF data quality and uncertainty. Additionally, biases and uncertainties in SIF observations can significantly confound interpretation of their relationships and how such relationships respond to environmental variations. Built upon our syntheses, we summarize existing gaps and uncertainties in current SIF observations. Further, we offer our perspectives on innovations needed to help improve informing ecosystem structure, function, and service under climate change, including enhancing in-situ SIF observing capability especially in “data desert” regions, improving cross-instrument data standardization and network coordination, and advancing applications by fully harnessing theory and data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

NuDustC++

NuDustc++ is a nucleating and sputtering dust code. It takes in the temperature-density profiles, abundance data, and chemistry network. It creates a binned size distribution from user input data to track certain grain sizes. NuDustc++ loads the data and calculates where and when a shock is detected in the input data. Using a runge-Kutta DoPri 5 integrator, it calculates nucleation and growth of grains by solving a system of coupled non-linear ODEs. It calculates sputtering based on the presence or lack of a shock by either integrating over energy or summing up the sputtering yield contributions per gas species. It is used to determine and track dust grain nucleation, growth, and erosion (sputtering) in gaseous systems to determine characteristics of the produced grain distribution.

Stangl, Sarah↗

DOE OSTI2021

Automated Cyber Security Testing Platform for Industrial Control Systems

Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) are a complex system of coupled physics controlled by a network of Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs). These PLCs communicate process data across the network to coordinate control actions with each other and inform the operators of process variables and control decisions. Networking the PLCs allows more effective process control and provides the operator more information which results in more efficient plant operation. This interconnectivity creates new security issues, as operators have more access to the plant controls, so will bad actors. As plant networks become more digitized and encompass more sophisticated controllers, the network surface exposed to cyber interference grows. Understanding the dynamics of these coupled systems of physics, control logic, and network communications is critical to their protection. The research into the cybersecurity of the Operational Technologies of NPPs is developing and requires a platform that can allow high fidelity physics simulations to interact with digital networks of controllers. This will require three main components: a network simulation environment, a physics simulator, and virtual PLCs (vPLC) that represent typical industry hardware. A platform that incorporates these three components to provide the most accurate representation of actual NPP networks and controllers is developed in this paper.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Sheaf Theoretical Approach to Uncertainty Quantification of Heterogeneous Geolocation Information

Integration of multiple, heterogeneous sensors is a challenging problem across a range of applications. Prominent among these are multi-target tracking, where one must combine observations from different sensor types in a meaningful and efficient way to track multiple targets. Because different sensors have differing error models, we seek a theoretically justified quantification of the agreement among ensembles of sensors, both overall for a sensor collection, and also at a fine-grained level specifying pairwise and multi-way interactions among sensors. We demonstrate that the theory of mathematical sheaves provides a unified answer to this need, supporting both quantitative and qualitative data. Furthermore, the theory provides algorithms to globalize data across the network of deployed sensors, and to diagnose issues when the data do not globalize cleanly. We demonstrate and illustrate the utility of sheaf-based tracking models based on experimental data of a wild population of black bears in Asheville, North Carolina. A measurement model involving four sensors deployed among the bears and the team of scientists charged with tracking their location is deployed. This provides a sheaf-based integration model which is small enough to fully interpret, but of sufficient complexity to demonstrate the sheaf’s ability to recover a holistic picture of the locations and behaviors of both individual bears and the bear-human tracking system. A statistical approach was developed in parallel for comparison, a dynamic linear model which was estimated using a Kalman filter. This approach also recovered bear and human locations and sensor accuracies. When the observations are normalized into a common coordinate system, the structure of the dynamic linear observation model recapitulates the structure of the sheaf model, demonstrating the canonicity of the sheaf-based approach. However, when the observations are not so normalized, the sheaf model still remains valid.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Risk-informed autonomous adaptive cyber controllers

Technology related to risk-informed autonomous adaptive cyber controllers is disclosed. In one example of the disclosed technology, a method includes generating probabilities of a cyber-attack occurring along an attack surface of a network. The probabilities can be generated using sensor and operational data of a network as inputs to an attack graph. The risk scores can be determined using a plurality of fault trees and the generated probabilities from the attack graph. The respective risk scores can correspond to respective nodes of an event tree. The event tree and the determined risk scores can be used to determine risk estimates for a plurality of configurations of the network. The risk estimates for the plurality of configurations of the network can be used to reconfigure the network to reduce a risk from the cyber-attack.

Veeramany, Arun↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data analysis and modeling pipelines for controlled networked social science experiments

There is large interest in networked social science experiments for understanding human behavior at-scale. Significant effort is required to perform data analytics on experimental outputs and for computational modeling of custom experiments. Moreover, experiments and modeling are often performed in a cycle, enabling iterative experimental refinement and data modeling to uncover interesting insights and to generate/refute hypotheses about social behaviors. The current practice for social analysts is to develop tailor-made computer programs and analytical scripts for experiments and modeling. This often leads to inefficiencies and duplication of effort. In this work, we propose a pipeline framework to take a significant step towards overcoming these challenges. Our contribution is to describe the design and implementation of a software system to automate many of the steps involved in analyzing social science experimental data, building models to capture the behavior of human subjects, and providing data to test hypotheses. The proposed pipeline framework consists of formal models, formal algorithms, and theoretical models as the basis for the design and implementation. We propose a formal data model, such that if an experiment can be described in terms of this model, then our pipeline software can be used to analyze data efficiently. The merits of the proposed pipeline framework is elaborated by several case studies of networked social science experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Braxton Marlatt Intern Poster

The Internet of Things (IoT) encompasses a vast network of interconnected devices embedded with software, sensors, and network connectivity, enabling data collection and exchange. While IoT technology revolutionizes various industries, it also introduces significant security challenges. This research focuses on enhancing IoT security through the implementation of Zero Trust Architecture concepts, specifically targeting the Network and Device pillars of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s Zero Trust Maturity Model. By generating Codified Attack Surfaces (CAS) using custom Structured Threat Information eXpression bundles, this project aims to provide enhanced visibility into network communications, detect vulnerabilities in device firmware, and improve the overall security posture for IoT devices and networks. The methodology involves defining custom STIX schema and objects, collecting data from intra-IoT traffic, external network traffic, and firmware analysis, and automating the conversion and correlation of this data into STIX bundles. The automated generation of attack surfaces offers comprehensive insights into activity, vulnerabilities, and anomalies within an IoT environment, enabling proactive threat identification and mitigation.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗