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DOE OSTI2024

Kitaev physics in the two-dimensional magnet NiPSe 3

The Kitaev interaction, found in candidate materials such as α − RuCl 3 , occurs through the metal ( M )-ligand ( X )-metal ( M ) paths of the edge-sharing octahedra because the large spin-orbit coupling (SOC) on the metal atoms activates directional spin interactions. Here, we show that even in 3 d transition-metal compounds, where the SOC of the metal atom is negligible, heavy ligands can induce bond-dependent Kitaev interactions. In this work, we take as an example the 3 d transition-metal chalcogenophosphate NiPSe 3 and show that the key is found in the presence of a sizable SOC on the Se p orbital, one which mediates the super-exchange between the nearest-neighbor Ni sites. Our study provides a pathway for engineering enhanced Kitaev interactions through the interplay of SOC strength, lattice distortions, and chemical substitutions. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Beyond-Hubbard Pairing in a Cuprate Ladder

The Hubbard model is believed to capture the essential physics of cuprate superconductors. However, recent theoretical studies suggest that it fails to reproduce a robust and homogeneous superconducting ground state. Here, using resonant inelastic x-ray scattering and density matrix renormalization group calculations, we show that magnetic excitations in the prototypical cuprate ladder Sr 14 Cu 24 O 41 are inconsistent with those of a simple Hubbard model. The magnetic response of hole carriers, contributing to an emergent branch of spin-flip excitations, is strongly suppressed. This effect is the consequence of strong d -wavelike pairing, enhanced by nearly an order of magnitude through a large nearest-neighbor attractive interaction and persisting up to at least 260 K. The close connection between the physics of cuprate ladders and that of the two-dimensional compounds suggests that such an enhanced hole pairing may be a universal feature of superconducting cuprates. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Complex Structure of Molten FLiBe (2 Li F – Be F 2 ) Examined by Experimental Neutron Scattering, X-Ray Scattering, and Deep-Neural-Network Based Molecular Dynamics

The use of molten salts as coolants, fuels, and tritium breeding blankets in the next generation of fission and fusion nuclear reactors benefits from furthering the characterization of the molecular structure of molten halide salts, paving the way to predictive capability of the chemical and thermophysical properties of molten salts. Due to its neutronic, chemical, and thermochemical properties, 2 Li F - Be F 2 is a candidate molten salt for several fusion- and fission-reactor designs. We performed neutron and x-ray total-scattering measurements to determine the atomic structure of liquid 2 Li F - Be F 2 . We also performed and neural-network molecular-dynamics simulations to predict the structure obtained by neutron- and x-ray-diffraction experiments. The use of machine learning provides improvements to the efficiency in predicting the structure at a longer length scales than is achievable with simulations at significantly lower computational expense while retaining near accuracy. We found that the NNMD simulations accurately predicted the Be F 4 2 − oligomer formations seen in the experimental first-structure-factor peak. Our combination of high-resolution measurements with large-scale molecular dynamics provided an avenue to explore and experimentally verify the intermediate-range ordering beyond the first-nearest neighbor that has posed too many experimental and computational challenges in previous works. With a deeper understanding of the salt structure and ion ordering, the evolution of salt chemistry over the lifetime of a reactor can be better predicted, which is crucial to the licensing and operation of advanced fission and fusion reactors that employ molten salts. To this end, this work will serve as a reference for future studies of salt structure and macroscopic properties with and without the addition of solutes. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cluster spin glass correlations and dynamics in Zn 0.5⁢ Mn 0.5⁢ Te

Here, we present a combined magnetometry, muon spin-relaxation (𝜇⁢SR), and neutron-scattering study of the insulating spin glass Zn 0.5 ⁢Mn 0.5 ⁢Te, for which magnetic Mn 2+ and nonmagnetic Zn 2+ ions are randomly distributed on a face-centered cubic lattice. The magnetometry and 𝜇⁢SR results confirm a spin freezing transition around 𝑇 𝑓 ≈ 23 K, with the spin-fluctuation rate decreasing gradually and somewhat inhomogeneously through the sample volume as the temperature decreases toward 𝑇 𝑓 . Characteristic spin-correlation times well above 𝑇 𝑓 are on the order of 10 −10 s, much slower than typically observed in canonical spin glasses but in line with expectations for a cluster spin glass. Using magnetic pair distribution function (mPDF) analysis and reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) modeling of the magnetic diffuse neutron-scattering data, we show that the spin-glass ground state consists of clusters of spins exhibiting short-range-ordered type-III antiferromagnetic correlations with a locally ordered moment of 3.1⁢(1)⁢𝜇 B between nearest-neighbor spins. The type-III correlations decay exponentially as a function of spin separation distance with a correlation length of approximately 5 Å. The diffuse magnetic scattering and corresponding mPDF show no significant changes across 𝑇 𝑓 , indicating that the dynamically fluctuating short-range spin correlations in the paramagnetic state retain the same basic type-III configuration that characterizes the spin-glass state; the only change apparent from the neutron-scattering data is a gradual reduction of the correlation length and locally ordered moment with increasing temperature. Taken together, these results paint a unique and detailed picture of the local magnetic structure and dynamics in Zn 0.5 ⁢Mn 0.5⁢ Te and provide strong evidence that this material is best described as a cluster spin glass. In addition, this work showcases a statistical method for extracting diffuse scattering signals from neutron powder diffraction data, which we developed to facilitate the mPDF and RMC analysis of the neutron data. This method has the potential to be broadly useful for neutron powder diffraction experiments on a variety of materials with short-range atomic or magnetic order.

magnetism↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigating the effects of local environment on nitrogen vacancies in high-entropy metal nitrides

High-entropy metal nitrides are an important material class in a variety of applications, and the role of nitrogen vacancies is of great importance for understanding their stability and mechanical properties. Here, we study six different high-entropy nitrides with eight different metal species to build a predictive model of the nitrogen-vacancy formation energy. We construct sets of supercells that maximize the number of unique nitrogen environments for a given chemistry, and then use density-functional theory to calculate the energy density for all nitrogen sites, and the vacancy formation energies for the highest, lowest, and a median subset based on the energy densities. The energy density of nitrogen sites correlates with the vacancy formation energies, for binary, ternary, and high-entropy nitrides. A linear regression model predicts the vacancy formation energies using only the nearest-neighbor composition; across our eight metals, we find the largest vacancy formation energies next to Hf, then Zr, Ti, V, Cr, Ta, Nb, and the lowest near Mo. Additionally, we see that binary nitride data show qualitatively similar vacancy formation energy trends for high-entropy nitrides; however, the binary data alone are insufficient to predict the complex nitride behavior. Our model is both predictive and easily interpretable, and correlates with experimental data.

DeSilva, Charith R. [Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-C↗

DOE OSTI2025

Crystal fields, exchange and dipolar interactions, and noncollinear magnons of erbium oxide

Here, we simulate the properties of magnons in erbium oxide, a noncollinear antiferromagnet, from an effective single-ion Hamiltonian, including exchange and long-range dipolar interactions. We parametrize the crystal-field splitting of Er 2 ⁢O 3 using Steven's operators and obtain the effective symmetry-dependent exchange constants between different erbium ions quenched by the crystal field at different symmetry sites. We apply the Holstein-Primakoff transformation to the noncollinear spin system and employ paraunitary diagonalization for the effective spin Hamiltonian. The addition of the dipolar interaction to the exchange magnon dispersion changes the magnon bands drastically. The long-range nature of the dipolar interaction provides challenges to convergence, however, we find that the averaged and normalized difference in the magnon dispersion is less than an averaged factor of 10 −6 if the dipolar interaction is included out to the 40th nearest neighbor.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

Complexity in the medium-range order of gallium as a polyvalent liquid metal

Simplicity in chemical composition does not always translate into simplicity in the structures and dynamics of liquids and solids. Some elementary liquid metals, such as gallium, show unusual behaviors in thermodynamic and transport properties as a result of their complex atomic structure and dynamics. Here, in this work, we study the real-space atomic correlation function of liquid gallium by neutron scattering. In the pair-distribution function, there exist two kinds of medium-range order (MRO), characterized by oscillations beyond the first nearest neighbors. On the other hand, the first neighbor shell shows only one kind of bond. The two types of MRO are strongly overlapping in space and fluctuating in time. We propose that they are the basis for anomalous behavior of liquid gallium. This view challenges the current view that liquid gallium consists of fluctuating metallic and insulating domains. These findings shed light on the interpretation of similar microscopic anomalies observed in other semimetallic liquids.

Hua, Chengyun [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗

DOE OSTI2025

Probing Ice-Rule-Breaking Transition in Dy 2 Ti 2 O 7 Thin Film by Proximitized Transport and Magnetic Torque

While the spin-ice state of bulk pyrochlores such as Dy 2⁢ Ti 2 ⁢O 7 and Ho 2⁢ Ti 2 ⁢O 7 has been extensively studied in the past several decades due to its unique degenerate ground state and emergent monopole excitation, whether it survives in the thin-film form remains a mystery. The limited volume of the thin-film sample makes it challenging to study the intrinsic magnetic properties. Here, we synthesized 18-nm-thick Dy 2⁢ Ti 2 ⁢O 7 thin film on yttria-stabilized zirconia with 9.5 mol% Y 2 ⁢O 3 substrate and capped it by a thin conductive Bi 2 ⁢Ir 2 ⁢O 7 layer and performed the proximitized magnetoresistance measurements. Our Letter found that the ice-rule-breaking phase transition survives but with a modified effective nearest-neighbor interaction (𝐽 eff =1.054 K) and distorted Ising spin axes (𝜀 = +0.051) compared to the bulk crystal. Furthermore, the results are supported by the simultaneously measured capacitive torque magnetometry. Our Letter demonstrates that proximitized transport is an effective tool for thin films of insulating frustrated magnets.

Magnetic interactions↗

DOE OSTI2025

Engineering 2D Square Lattice Hubbard Models in 90° Twisted GeX/SnX (X =S, Se) Moiré Superlattices

Because of the large-period superlattices emerging in moiré two-dimensional (2D) materials, electronic states in such systems exhibit low energy flat bands that can be used to simulate strongly correlated physics in a highly tunable setup. While many investigations have thus far focused on moiré flat bands and emergent correlated electron physics in triangular, honeycomb, and quasi-one-dimensional lattices, tunable moiré realizations of square lattices subject to strong correlations remain elusive. Here, in this work, we propose a feasible scheme to construct moiré square lattice systems by twisting two or more layers of 2D materials in a rectangular lattice by 90°. We demonstrate the concept with twisted GeX/SnX (X =S, Se) moiré superlattices and calculate their electronic structures from first principles. We show that the lowest conduction flat band in these systems can be described by a square lattice Hubbard model with parameters which can be controlled by varying the choice of host materials, number of layers, and external electric fields. In particular, twisted double bilayer GeSe realizes a square lattice Hubbard model with strong frustration due to the next-nearest-neighbor hopping that could host unconventional superconductivity, in close analogy to the Hubbard model for copper-oxygen planes of cuprate high-temperature superconductors. The presented scheme uses 90° twisted 2D materials with rectangular unit cells as a promising platform for realizing the physical phenomena of square lattice Hubbard models, establishing a new route for studying its rich phase diagram of magnetism, charge order, and unconventional superconductivity in a highly tunable setting.

2-dimensional systems↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electronic structure and exchange interactions in altermagnetic MnGeP 2 in the quasiparticle self-consistent G W approach

The quasiparticle self-consistent 𝐺⁡𝑊 method is used to study the electronic band structure, optical dielectric function, and exchange interactions in chalcopyrite, 𝐼⁢ ‾ 4 ⁢2⁢𝑑, structure MnGeP 2 . The material is found to be an antiferromagnetic semiconductor with a lowest direct gap of 2.44 eV at the Γ point and a lower indirect gap of 1.87 eV from Γ to 𝑀. The material is an altermagnet because the two magnetic atoms of opposite spin are related by a twofold rotation operation perpendicular to the main fourfold rotation inversion axis. The spin splittings along a low symmetry line like 𝑃⁢𝑁 is sizable while at k points on the diagonal mirror planes or on the twofold symmetry axes the spin splitting is zero. The exchange interactions are calculated using a linear response approach. The antiferromagnetic exchange interaction between nearest neighbors in the primitive unit cell is dominating and found to be slightly decreasing upon carrier doping but not sufficiently to change the interaction to become ferromagnetic. The bare (noninteracting) and interacting transverse spin susceptibilities, which provide interatomic site exchange interactions after averaging over the muffin-tin spheres, are calculated from the 𝐺⁡𝑊 band structure and wave functions. From these exchange interactions, the spin wave spectra are obtained along the high symmetry lines and the Néel temperature is calculated using the mean-field and Tyablikov estimations. The dielectric function and the optical absorption spectra are calculated including excitonic effects using the Bethe Salpeter equation. The exchange interactions around Mn Ge defect sites is also studied. While we find it can generate ferromagnetic interactions with neighboring spins, we did not find direct evidence of producing an overall ferromagnetic phase. First, if Mn antisites are introduced by exchanging Mn with a nearby Ge, the interactions stay largely antiferromagnetic. Second, when we add additional Mn, in other words in Mn-rich stoichiometry, the Mn Ge antisites produce a strong ferromagnetic interaction primarily with the Mn in the same basal plane but weaker ferromagnetic interaction with adjacent plane Mn. The interactions between regular lattice Mn stay antiferromagnetic as before and thus favor keeping the antiferromagnetic order along the [001] direction. Adding Mn antisites, however, does lead to a metallic band structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Trends in spatial correlations, two-phase coexistence, and criticality in a class of type-2 Schloegl models for autocatalysis

A class of type-2 Schloegl models is considered for particles on a square lattice with variable-range cooperativity. These models involve: (i) spontaneous particle annihilation at rate p; (ii) autocatalytic particle creation at unoccupied sites (i, j) with n ⩾ 2 particles within a specified neighborhood, Ω 𝑁 (i, j), of sites at rate $k_n$ = $\frac{^{(^n_2)}}{_{(^N_2)}}$ = $\frac{n{(n-1)}}{_{N(N-1)}}$; and (iii) possible spontaneous particle creation at unoccupied sites at “small” rate ɛ ⩾ 0. In some cases, Ω 𝑁 just includes all symmetry-equivalent sites at a single specific distance 𝑑 (in units of lattice constants) from the unoccupied site, e.g., 𝑑 = 1 (nearest-neighbor sites) where 𝑁 = 4, or 𝑑 = √5 (or √13 or…) where 𝑁 = 8. In other cases, Ω 𝑁 includes sites multiple distances from the unoccupied site, e.g., 𝑑 = {1,√2}, where 𝑁 = 8. Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulation reveals that these models exhibit a nonequilibrium discontinuous phase transition between high- and low-density states below a critical point, ɛ < ɛ c , with generic two-phase coexistence (2PC) at least for smaller 𝑁. With some exceptions, there is an approach toward mean-field behavior with increasing 𝑁 (so the regime of generic 2PC shrinks, and ɛ c approaches the mean-field value of 1/27). Additional insight into trends is provided by analysis of the exact master equations for the models via hierarchical truncation. These truncations utilize suitably tailored pair approximations which reflect the dominant nonequilibrium spatial correlations. These correlations in turn are shown to reflect the details of the autocatalytic particle creation process. For spatially heterogeneous states, the truncations produce coupled sets of lattice differential equations (LDE) which can describe orientation-dependent propagation of an interface between high- and low-density steady states for ɛ < ɛ c . Pair approximation values of 𝑝 = 𝑝 eq where the interface is stationary, and its orientation-dependence, are in semiquantitative agreement with KMC results. In conclusion, this comparison accounts for propagation failure in the LDE which complicates interpretation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Pattern-matching indexing of Laue and monochromatic serial crystallography data for applications in materials science

Serial crystallography data can be challenging to index, as each frame is processed individually, rather than being processed as a whole like in conventional X-ray single-crystal crystallography. An algorithm has been developed to index still diffraction patterns arising from small-unit-cell samples. The algorithm is based on the matching of reciprocal-lattice vector pairs, as developed for Laue microdiffraction data indexing, combined with three-dimensional pattern matching using a nearest-neighbors approach. As a result, large-bandpass data (e.g. 5–24 keV energy range) and monochromatic data can be processed, the main requirement being prior knowledge of the unit cell. Furthermore, angles calculated in the vicinity of a few theoretical and experimental reciprocal-lattice vectors are compared, and only vectors with the highest number of common angles are selected as candidates to obtain the orientation matrix. Global matching on the entire pattern is then checked. Four indexing options are available, two for the ranking of the theoretical reciprocal-lattice vectors and two for reducing the number of possible candidates. Furthermore, the algorithm has been used to index several data sets collected under different experimental conditions on a series of model samples. Additionally, knowing the crystallographic structure of the sample and using this information to rank the theoretical reflections based on the structure factors helps the indexing of large-bandpass data for the largest-unit-cell samples. For small-bandpass data, shortening the candidate list to determine the orientation matrix should be based on matching pairs of reciprocal-lattice vectors instead of triplet matching.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficient graph representation framework for chemical molecule similarity tasks

Graph data has emerged in numerous scientific domains and machine learning techniques have been widely used for analysis and learning of diverse data for prediction and decision. Machine learning techniques can readily address complex problems by leveraging their structural information. But graphs cannot be directly used for existing machine learning algorithms unless encoded as vectors. The problem of efficient representation of graphs is a substantial challenge in graph machine learning. In this paper, we propose a novel two-stage framework for the representation of chemical molecule graphs based on the strengths of Graph Isomorphism Networks (GINs) and Siamese autoencoders. In the first stage, the GIN model is constructed and trained using the structural information of chemical molecule graphs. Node attributes, edge attributes, and edge indices are used as input data, while graph attributes are used as labels. The GIN model effectively captures the structural characteristics of graphs and can accurately predict graph attributes, i.e., molecular properties. It also generates Graph Embeddings, represented as vectors that encode the structural information of graphs. In the second stage, Graph Embedding vectors are further optimized for downstream similarity tasks while preserving the graph structural information. The Siamese autoencoder is constructed and trained, which reduces the dimensionality of the Graph Embedding vectors, while maximizing the preservation of structural information in the original high-dimensional vectors. The resulting low-dimensional Graph Embeddings can be effectively utilized for tasks such as approximate nearest neighbor search. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed framework in accurately predicting graph similarity.

Ma, Jiaji↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effective Missing Value Imputation Methods for Building Monitoring Data

To understand behaviors of natural and man-made events, such as energy consumption of buildings, which accounts for 40% of energy uses in the US, we deploy automated monitoring devices to record periodic observations. However, such experimental and observation data often contains problems and irregularities that have to be cleaned up before analyses. Due to various conditions affecting sensor operations, the communication channels, recording steps, or the recording media, the recorded data might have missing values, errors, or anomalous values. An effective way to clean up these problems is to replace these missing values, errors and anomalous values with expected values, a process generally known as imputation. In this work, we survey commonly used missing value imputation techniques and compare their performance on a set of building monitoring data. To compare the different types of sensor measurements with widely varying characteristics, we use normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) as the key metric for the effectiveness of the imputation methods. We additionally consider periodicity and run time when considering comparing methods. Through extensive testing, we find that for small gap sizes, up to 8 consecutive missing values, linear interpolation performs the best; for larger gaps stretching up to 48 consecutive missing values, K-nearest neighbors provides the most accurate imputations; for even larger gaps, more computational intensive methods, such as matrix factorization, achieve the smallest NRMSE. Additionally, we observe that these computationally intensive algorithms not only provide accurate imputations for large gaps, but are also more robust across all types of sensors.

Cho, B↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data-driven Cyberattack Detection for Photovoltaic (PV) Systems through Analyzing Micro-PMU Data

With increasing exposure to software-based sensing and control, Photovoltaic (PV) systems are facing higher risks of cyber attacks. Here, to ensure the system stability and minimize potential economic losses, it is imperative to monitor operating states and detect attacks at the early stage. To meet this demand, Micro-Phasor Measurement Units (μPMU) are increasingly popular in monitoring distribution networks. However, due to the relatively low sampling rate, μPMU has not yet been used to detect and classify cyber-attacks in power electronics enabled smart grid. To our knowledge, this is one of the first attempts to use μPMU to detect cyber attacks that degrade the performance of power electronics systems. We propose to apply data-driven methods on micro-PMU data to implement attack detection. We have evaluated data-driven methods, including decision tree (DT), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural network (ANN), long short-term memory (LSTM) and convolutional neural network (CNN). The proposed CNN model achieves the required performances with the highest 99.23% accuracy and 0.9963 F 1 score.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mass Detection for Heavy-Duty Vehicles using Gaussian Belief Propagation

Predicting vehicle mass is critical to accurately estimate energy use and emissions of commercial trucks. However, data from vehicle telematics is often not at sufficient temporal resolution or accuracy for use in model-based detection methods. In this work, a new statistical mass prediction technique is described for heavy-duty vehicles that incorporates the use Gaussian Belief Propagation (GBP) for probabilistic inference. Similar to Bayesian inference models, the GBP model typically requires less labeled training data than other contemporary machine learning techniques. First, a factor graph is constructed, and a set of Gaussian belief nodes with associated means and variances are fitted to the training data. To better handle noisy input data, the GBP mass prediction model utilizes a k-nearest factors (kNF) algorithm for probabilistic inference on unseen testing data. The proposed method is compared with a classical weighted k-nearest neighbors (kNN) regressor. This statistical kNF-GBP model works even with low-quantity, low-quality initial training data, while being capable of realtime mass estimation. Unlike the kNN regressor, the GBP model produces a measure of uncertainty with its predictions. The proposed method is validated using curve-sampled driving data collected from multiple cloud-connected Class 8 regional haul diesel trucks. Both the kNN regressor and the kNF-GBP mass prediction model were able to predict payload mass with coefficients of determination above 0.97 with minimal data preprocessing.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Evaluation of the Effect of Network Cost Optimization for Leadership Class Supercomputers

Dragonfly-based networks are an extensively deployed network topology in large-scale high-performance computing due to their cost-effectiveness and efficiency. The US will soon have three Exascale supercomputers for leadership class workloads deployed using dragonfly networks. Compared to indirect networks of similar scale, the dragonfly network has considerably reduced cable lengths, cable counts, and switch counts, resulting in significant network cost savings for a given system size, however, these cost reductions result in reduced global minimal paths and more challenging routing. Additionally, large scale dragonfly networks often require a taper at the global link level, resulting in less bisection bandwidth than is achievable in other traditional non-blocking topologies of equivalent scale. While dragonfly networks have been extensively studied, they have yet to be fully evaluated in an extreme scale (i.e., exascale) system that targets capability workloads. In this paper, we present the results of the first large scale evaluation of a dragonfly network on an exascale system (Frontier) and compare its behavior to a similar scale fat-tree network on a previous generation TOP500 system (Summit). This evaluation aims to determine the effect of network cost optimizations by measuring a tapered topology’s impact on capability workloads. Our evaluation is based on a collection of synthetic microbenchmarks, mini-apps, and full scale applications. It compares the scaling efficiencies of each benchmark between the dragonfly-based Frontier and the fat-tree-based Summit systems. Our results show that a dragonfly network is $\sim \mathbf{3 0 \%}$ more cost efficient than a fat-tree topology, which amortizes to $\sim 3 \%$ of an exascale system cost. Furthermore, while tapered dragonfly networks impose significant tradeoffs, the impacts are not as broad as initially thought and are mostly seen in applications with global communication patterns, particularly all-to-all (e.g., FFT-based algorithms), but also local communication patterns (e.g., nearest-neighbor algorithms) that are sensitive to network performance variability.

Khan, Awais↗

DOE OSTI2022

Six Machine-Learning Methods for Predicting Hospital-Stay Duration for Patients with Sepsis: A Comparative Study

Sepsis is a life-threatening medical condition that, if not treated promptly, can result in tissue damage, organ failure, and death. According to the Centers for Disease Control, about 270,000 individuals die of sepsis in the US each year. Further, sepsis expenditures accounted for 13% of total US hospital costs in 2013, totaling more than $24 billion. Our project objectives were to determine if Machine Learning algorithms could reliably predict hospital stay duration for patients with sepsis. The data set we used has been de-identified and is freely available through the BupaR package. The data includes 1050 cases, 15214 events, and 16 types of actions related to sepsis patient care. First, we used process mining to determine how long each patient was in the hospital. Using BupaR’s functions, we created several process model graphs. These process models depict the movement of patients at a hospital and provide duration data for each patent case. Second, we identified outlier data and created two dataset versions: one with and one without outliers. We then applied the following analysis methods: Linear Regression, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors, Neural Networks, XGBoost, and lightGBM. We compared the model validations for the six machine learning models using the same data-splitting method. We found that the XGBoost model had the best prediction accuracy of 73.9 percent for cases with outliers, and 79 percent for cases without outliers. We also found that the lightGBM model had the lowest mean absolute error between prediction and actual duration in days with 3.66 days for the case with outliers, and 2.4 days for the case without outliers. These two models outperformed the other four models. This work will be enhanced in the future by exploring new prediction algorithms and comparing them with the results of this study.

Chen, Lingtao↗