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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Microphysics in the Multi-Scale Modeling Systems with Unified Physics

In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (l) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, the microphysics developments of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling system to study the heavy precipitation processes will be presented.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2012

Microphysics in Multi-scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (1) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, a review of developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the microphysics development and its performance for the multi-scale modeling system will be presented.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2009

Multi-Disciplinary Analysis and Optimization Frameworks

Since July 2008, the Multidisciplinary Analysis & Optimization Working Group (MDAO WG) of the Systems Analysis Design & Optimization (SAD&O) discipline in the Fundamental Aeronautics Program s Subsonic Fixed Wing (SFW) project completed one major milestone, Define Architecture & Interfaces for Next Generation Open Source MDAO Framework Milestone (9/30/08), and is completing the Generation 1 Framework validation milestone, which is due December 2008. Included in the presentation are: details of progress on developing the Open MDAO framework, modeling and testing the Generation 1 Framework, progress toward establishing partnerships with external parties, and discussion of additional potential collaborations

Naiman, Cynthia Gutierrez↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Interplanetary and Magnetospheric Causes of Extreme DB/dt at Equatorial Locations

The 1 min resolution solar wind and geomagnetic data obtained from seven equatorial low-latitude stations during four extreme geomagnetic activities are used to investigate the extreme dB/dt perturbations. Simulations of the magnetospheric-ionospheric environment were also performed for varying amplitudes of the solar proton density. Simulations were carried out using the Space Weather Modeling Framework BATS-R-US + RCM model. Both the observations and simulations demonstrated that the appearance time of the extreme dB/dt perturbations at equatorial stations during disturbed conditions is instantaneous and equitable to those experienced at auroral regions yielding time lags of the order of a few seconds. We find that the rapid dB/dt enhancements are caused by the electric field of magnetospheric current origin, which is being enhanced by solar wind density and ram pressure variations and boosted by the equatorial electro jet. Our results indicate that the solar wind proton density variations could be used as a predictor of extreme dB/dt enhancement at equatorial latitudes.

Adebesin, Babatunde O.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Critical Load Exceedances for North America and Europe using an Ensemble of Models and an Investigation of Causes for Environmental Impact Estimate Variability: An AQMEII4 Study

Exceedances of critical loads for deposition of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) to different ecosystems were estimated using European and North American ensembles of air quality models, under Phase 4 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4), to identify where risk of ecosystem harm is expected to occur based on model deposition estimates. The ensembles were driven by common emissions and lateral boundary condition inputs. Model output was regridded to common North American and Europe 0.125° resolution domains, which were then used to calculate critical load exceedances. New, targeted deposition diagnostics implemented in AQMEII4 allowed an unprecedented level of post-simulation analysis to be carried out and facilitated the identification of specific causes of model-to-model variability in critical load exceedance estimates. New datasets for North American critical loads for acidity for forest soil water and aquatic ecosystems were combined with the ensemble deposition predictions to show a substantial decrease in the area and number of locations in exceedance between 2010 and 2016 (forest soils: 13.2 % to 6.1 %; aquatic ecosystems: 21.2 % to 11.4 %). All models agreed in the direction of the ensemble exceedance change between 2010 and 2016. The North American ensemble also predicted a decrease in both severity and total area in exceedance between the years 2010 and 2016 for eutrophication-impacted ecosystems in the USA (sensitive epiphytic lichen: 81.5 % to 75.8 %). The exceedances for herbaceous community richness also decreased between 2010 and 2016, from 13.9 % to 3.9 %. The uncertainty associated with the North American eutrophication results is high; there were sharp differences between the models in both predictions of total N deposition and the change in N deposition, and hence in the predicted eutrophication exceedances between the two years. The European ensemble was used to predict relatively static exceedances of critical loads with respect to acidification (4.48 % to 4.32 % from 2009 to 2010) while eutrophication exceedance increased slightly (60.2 % to 62.2 %). While most models showed the same changes in critical load exceedances as the ensemble between the two years, the spatial extent and magnitude of exceedances varied significantly between the models. The reasons for this variation were examined in detail by first ranking the relative contribution of different sources of sulphur and nitrogen deposition in terms of deposited mass and model-to-model variability in that deposited mass, followed by their analysis using AQMEII4 diagnostics, along with evaluation of the most recent literature. All models in both the North American and European ensembles had net annual negative biases with respect to observed wet deposition of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium. Diagnostics and recent literature suggest that this bias may stem from insufficient cloud scavenging of aerosols and gases, and may be improved through the incorporation of multiphase hydrometeor scavenging within the modelling frameworks. The inability of North American models to predict the timing of the seasonal peak in wet ammonium ion deposition (observed maximum was in April, while all models predicted a June maximum) may also relate to the need for multiphase hydrometeor scavenging (absence of snow scavenging in all models employed here). High variability in the relative importance of particulate sulphate, nitrate and ammonium deposition fluxes between models was linked to the use of updated particle dry deposition parameterizations in some models. However, recent literature and further development of some of the models within the ensemble suggests these particulate biases may also be ameliorated via the incorporation of multiphase hydrometeor scavenging. Annual sulphur and nitrogen deposition prediction variability was linked to SO 2 and HNO 3 dry deposition parameterizations, and diagnostic analysis showed that the cuticle and soil deposition pathways dominate the deposition mass flux of these species. Further work improving parameterizations for these deposition pathways should reduce variability in model acidifying gas deposition estimates. The absence of base cation chemistry in some models was shown to be a major factor in positive biases in fine mode particulate ammonium and particle nitrate concentrations. Models employing ammonia bidirectional fluxes had both the largest and the smallest magnitude biases, depending on the model and bidirectional flux algorithm employed. A careful analysis of bidirectional flux models suggests that those with poor NH 3 performance may underestimate the extent of NH 3 emissions fluxes from forested areas. Based on these results, an increased process-research focus is therefore recommended for the following model processes and on observations which may assist in model evaluation and improvement: multiphase hydrometeor scavenging combined with updated particle dry deposition, cuticle and soil deposition pathway algorithms for acidifying gases, base cation chemistry and emissions, and NH 3 bidirectional fluxes. Comparisons with satellite observations suggest that oceanic NH 3 emissions sources should be included in regional chemical transport models. The choice of land use database employed within any given model was shown to significantly influence deposition totals in several instances, and employing a common land use database across chemical transport models and critical load calculations is recommended for future work.

critical loads↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-fluid behavior in rapid compression machines: Does it matter?

Rapid compression machines (RCMs) have been extensively used to quantify fuel autoignition chemistry and validate chemical kinetic models at high-pressure conditions. Historically, the analyses of experimental and modeling RCM autoignition data have been conducted based on the adiabatic core hypothesis with ideal gas assumption, where real-fluid behavior has been completely overlooked, though this might be significant at common RCM test conditions. Here, this work presents a first-of-its-kind study that addresses two significant but overlooked questions for autoignition studies within RCMs in the fundamental combustion community: (i) experiment-wise, can unaccounted-for real-fluid behavior in RCMs affect the interpretation and analysis of RCM experimental data? and (ii) simulation-wise, can unaccounted-for real-fluid behavior in RCMs affect RCM autoignition modeling and the validation of chemical kinetic models? To this end, theories for real-fluid isentropic change are newly proposed and derived based on high-order Virial EoS, and are further incorporated into an effective-volume real-fluid autoignition modeling framework newly developed for RCMs. With detailed analyses, the strong real-fluid behavior in representative RCM tests is confirmed, which can greatly influence the interpretation of RCM autoignition experiments, particularly the determination of end-of-compression temperature and evolution of the adiabatic core in the reaction chamber. Furthermore, real-fluid RCM modeling results reveal that considerable error can be introduced into simulating RCM autoignition experiments when following the community-wide accepted effective-volume approach by assuming ideal-gas behavior, which can be as high as 64% in the simulated ignition delay time at compressed pressure of 125 bar and lead to contradictory validation results of chemical kinetic models. Therefore, we recommend the community to adopt frameworks with real-fluid behavior fully accounted for (e.g., the one developed in this study) to analyze and simulate past and future RCM experiments, so as to avoid misinterpretation of RCM autoignition experiments and eliminate the potential errors that can be introduced into the simulation results with the existing RCM modeling frameworks.

High-order Virial equation of state↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Streamflow Reanalysis Across the Conterminous US Leveraging Multiple Gridded Precipitation Data Sets

Streamflow observations, essential for various water resource applications, are often unavailable at critical locations in need. Although different models have been proposed to enhance streamflow predictability at ungauged locations, the challenge extends beyond model fidelity. Differences in meteorologic forcing data sets, precipitation in particular, can significantly affect the accuracy of hydrologic predictions. This challenge intensifies across regions characterized by diverse hydro-climatological and geographical conditions, such as in the conterminous US (CONUS) where a single precipitation product struggles to consistently replicate observed hydrographs, particularly peak flow dynamics. To enhance streamflow predictions, we utilize a VIC-RAPID hydrologic modeling framework driven by multiple commonly used meteorological forcing data sets, such as Daymet, PRISM, ST4, AORC, and their hybrids and create multiple sets of 40-year (1980–2019) hourly, daily, and monthly streamflow reanalysis, Dayflow Version 2, for 2.7 million river reaches across the CONUS. Most forcings lead to skillful streamflow performance, except for ST4 in the mountainous west, where severe radar blockage adversely affects the accuracy. The evaluation using over 6,000 hourly stream gauges shows that hourly AORC and ST4 lead to improved annual peak flow performance over Daymet—driven streamflow (Dayflow V1), particularly in smaller basins, highlighting the value of high temporal resolution forcings in hydrologic predictions. Compared with other benchmark data sets like National Water Model V3.0, AORC-driven VIC-RAPID exhibits improved regional streamflow performance, with comparable peak flow representation. We envision that multi-forcing streamflow reanalysis data can inform regions in need of forcing data enhancement, diagnose hydrologic model performance, and benefit diverse water resource applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulating microgalvanic corrosion in alloys using the PRISMS phase-field framework

In this prospective paper, we first review the existing simulation tools to simulate microgalvanic corrosion during free immersion. Then, we describe a recently developed application that employs PRISMS-PF, an open-source, high-performance phase-field modeling framework. The model employed in the application accounts for the electrochemical reaction at the metal/electrolyte interface and ionic migration in the electrolyte to determine the evolution of the corrosion front. We present the implementation details for the application and discuss its features such as super-linear parallel scaling performance for a sufficiently large system. Finally, we demonstrate the capability of the application by simulating corrosion of the matrix phase of an alloy near a secondary phase particle in two and three dimensions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Representation of atmosphere-induced heterogeneity in land–atmosphere interactions in E3SM–MMFv2

In the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF), where parameterizations of convection and turbulence are replaced by a 2-D cloud-resolving model (CRM), there are multiple options to represent land–atmosphere interactions. Here, we propose three different coupling strategies, namely the (1) coupling of a single land surface model to the global grid (MMF), (2) coupling a single land copy directly to the embedded CRM (SFLX2CRM), and (3) coupling a single copy of land model to each column of the CRM grid (MAML). In the MAML (Multi-Atmosphere Multi-Land) framework, a land model is coupled to CRM at the CRM-grid scale by coupling an individual copy of a land model to each CRM grid. Therefore, we can represent intra-CRM heterogeneity in the land–atmosphere interaction processes. There are 5-year global simulations run using these three coupling strategies, and we find some regional differences but overall small changes with respect to whether a land model is coupled to CRM or a global atmosphere. In MAML, the spatial heterogeneity within CRM induces stronger turbulence, which leads to the changes in soil moisture, surface heat fluxes, and precipitation. However, the differences in the MAML from the other two cases are rather weak, suggesting that the impact of using MAML does not justify the increase in cost.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1992

Knowledge modeling for software design

This paper develops a modeling framework for systems engineering that encompasses systems modeling, task modeling, and knowledge modeling, and allows knowledge engineering and software engineering to be seen as part of a unified developmental process. This framework is used to evaluate what novel contributions the 'knowledge engineering' paradigm has made and how these impact software engineering.

Shaw, Mildred L. G.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial Engineering Framework for Species Tracking in MSRs Involving Fuel Salt and Structures

This report implements a high-fidelity multiphysics modeling framework using the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program tools to track leaching and plating of materials between the fuel salt and structures in Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs). Specifically, this framework is demonstrated in modeling various processes within MSRs including hot and cold leg corrosion, redox potential driven corrosion, colloid precipitation and deposition, and noble metal plating and decay heat modeling. The model integrates neutronics, thermal-hydraulics, depletion, and thermochemistry to simulate the evolving chemical behavior of the fuel salt in interactions with structural materials. Initial findings suggest that hot-cold leg corrosion in MSR systems may become significant if the redox potential of the fuel salt is not sufficiently controlled. Additionally, the impact of noble metal decay heat deposition in large power reactors is explored. The resulting engineering framework for species tracking will be applied in the future toward specific validation work with ongoing experimental efforts focusing on both chloride and fluoride salt loop experiments with in-situ corrosion and redox control instrumentation.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2018

Greedy Sampling and Incremental Surrogate Model-Based Tailoring of Aeroservoelastic Model Database for Flexible Aircraft

This paper presents a data analysis and modeling framework to tailor and develop linear parameter-varying (LPV) aeroservoelastic (ASE) model database for flexible aircrafts in broad 2D flight parameter space. The Kriging surrogate model is constructed using ASE models at a fraction of grid points within the original model database, and then the ASE model at any flight condition can be obtained simply through surrogate model interpolation. The greedy sampling algorithm is developed to select the next sample point that carries the worst relative error between the surrogate model prediction and the benchmark model in the frequency domain among all input-output channels. The process is iterated to incrementally improve surrogate model accuracy till a pre-determined tolerance or iteration budget is met. The methodology is applied to the ASE model database of a flexible aircraft currently being tested at NASA/AFRC for flutter suppression and gust load alleviation. Our studies indicate that the proposed method can reduce the number of models in the original database by 67%. Even so the ASE models obtained through Kriging interpolation match the model in the original database constructed directly from the physics-based tool with the worst relative error far below 1%. The interpolated ASE model exhibits continuously-varying gains along a set of prescribed flight conditions. More importantly, the selected grid points are distributed non-uniformly in the parameter space, a) capturing the distinctly different dynamic behavior and its dependence on flight parameters, and b) reiterating the need and utility for adaptive space sampling techniques for ASE model database compaction. The present framework is directly extendible to high-dimensional flight parameter space, and can be used to guide the ASE model development, model order reduction, robust control synthesis and novel vehicle design of flexible aircraft.

numerical analysi↗
DOE OSTI2021

Strong Local Evaporative Cooling Over Land Due to Atmospheric Aerosols

Abstract Aerosols can enhance terrestrial productivity through increased absorption of solar radiation by the shaded portion of the plant canopy—the diffuse radiation fertilization effect. Although this process can, in principle, alter surface evaporation due to the coupling between plant water loss and carbon uptake, with the potential to change the surface temperature, aerosol‐climate interactions have been traditionally viewed in light of the radiative effects within the atmosphere. Here, we develop a modeling framework that combines global atmosphere and land model simulations with a conceptual diagnostic tool to investigate these interactions from a surface energy budget perspective. Aerosols increase the terrestrial evaporative fraction, or the portion of net incoming energy consumed by evaporation, by over 4% globally and as much as ∼40% regionally. The main mechanism for this is the increase in energy allocation from sensible to latent heat due to global dimming (reduction in global shortwave radiation) and slightly augmented by diffuse radiation fertilization. In regions with moderately dense vegetation (leaf area index >2), the local surface cooling response to aerosols is dominated by this evaporative pathway, not the reduction in incident radiation. Diffuse radiation fertilization alone has a stronger impact on gross primary productivity (+2.18 Pg C y −1 or +1.8%) than on land evaporation (+0.18 W m −2 or +0.48%) and surface temperature (−0.01 K). Our results suggest that it is important for land surface models to distinguish between quantity (change in total magnitude) and quality (change in diffuse fraction) of radiative forcing for properly simulating surface climate.

Chakraborty, TC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulating energetic ions and enhanced fusion rates from ion-cyclotron resonance heating with a full-wave/Fokker–Planck model

Reproducing fast-ion enhanced fusion rates from ion-cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH) in tokamaks requires the self-consistent coupling of a full-wave solver and a Fokker–Planck solver, which evolves multiple simultaneously resonant ion species. We introduce a new self-consistent model that iterates the TORIC full-wave solver with the CQL3D Fokker–Planck solver using the integrated plasma simulator (IPS). This model evolves the bounce-averaged ion distribution functions in both parallel and perpendicular velocity-space with a quasilinear radio frequency (RF) diffusion operator valid in the ion finite Larmor radius (FLR) limit and the RF electric fields with the resultant non-Maxwellian FLR dielectric tensor. This produces non-Maxwellian ICRH simulations that are fully self-consistent, fast, and interoperable with integrated modeling frameworks, such as TRANSP/GACODE/IPS-FASTRAN. We demonstrate our model's capabilities by validating it against experimental data in Alcator C-Mod. We then perform the first RF heating simulations of SPARC using self-consistent non-Maxwellian ion distributions to investigate the potential to enhance fusion rates using ion cyclotron resonance heating generated fast ions.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2021

GOOML Big Kahuna Forecast Modeling and Genetic Optimization Files

This submission includes example files associated with the Geothermal Operational Optimization using Machine Learning (GOOML) Big Kahuna fictional power plant, which uses synthetic data to model a fictional power plant. A forecast was produced using the GOOML data model framework and fictional input data, and a genetic optimization is included which determines optimal flash plant parameters. The inputs and outputs associated with the forecast and genetic optimization are included. The input and output files consist of data, configuration files, and plots. A link to the Physics-Guided Neural Networks (phygnn) GitHub repository is also included, which augments a traditional neural network loss function with a generic loss term that can be used to guide the neural network to learn physical or theoretical constraints. phygnn is used by the GOOML framework to help integrate its machine learning models into the relevant physics and engineering applications. Note that the data included in this submission are intended to provide a demonstration of GOOML's capabilities. Additional files that have not been released to the public are needed for users to run these models and reproduce these results. Units can be found in the readme data resource.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

IM3 Data Center Driven Grid Stress Dataset for the U.S. Western Interconnection

This dataset provides projected grid stress and reliability results (including all model inputs and outputs from an open-source grid operations modeling framework - GO), for the Integrated Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project, under varying levels of data center demand growth between 2025 and 2035 in the U.S. Western Interconnection. The scenarios and sensitivity experiments are combinations of different data center demand growth rates and energy, weather, population and economic pathways. Data center demand growth projections were sourced from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The data center demand growth projection names are: Low (3.71% annual data center demand growth) Moderate (5% annual data center demand growth) High (10% annual data center demand growth) Higher (15% annual data center demand growth) Energy, weather, population and economic pathways are informed by two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) following the hotter general circulation model (GCM) forcing group from a set of perturbed thermodynamics simulations. The resulting pathway names are: rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 The main scenarios and sensitivity experiments are detailed below. Reference scenario: The projected grid stress and reliability results for the U.S. Western Interconnection from a previous study. This scenario does not consider data center demand growth explicitly. Data center scenario: Building on the reference scenario, this scenario considers various data center growth rates and how they impact the U.S. Western Interconnection. Data center loads are modeled as flat 8760-hr profiles. This scenario does not consider new generation and transmission capacities specifically designed to meet the new data center demands. The related folder is named "flat". Delayed generator retirements sensitivity experiment: Building on the data center scenario, this experiment explores the impact of different levels of natural gas and nuclear generator retirement delays. The resulting scenario names are: (1) postponing 100% nuclear retirements; (2) postponing 100% nuclear and 25% natural gas retirements; (3) postponing only 50% natural gas retirements; (4) postponing 100% nuclear and 50% natural gas retirements; (5) postponing 100% nuclear and 75% natural gas retirements; and (6) postponing 100% nuclear and 100% natural gas retirements. The related folder names are: no_gen_retire_0_gas, no_gen_retire_25_gas, no_gen_retire_50_gas, no_gen_retire_50_gas_only, no_gen_retire_75_gas, and no_gen_retire_100_gas. Demand response through curtailment sensitivity experiment: Building on the data center scenario, this experiment explores the impact of different participation and compensation levels of data center demand response. The resulting scenario names are: (1) 5% demand available for curtailment with 750 $/MWh compensation; (2) 5% demand available for curtailment with 500 $/MWh compensation; (3) 5% demand available for curtailment with 250 $/MWh compensation; (4) 15% demand available for curtailment with 750 $/MWh compensation; (5) 15% demand available for curtailment with 500 $/MWh compensation; and (6) 15% demand available for curtailment with 250 $/MWh compensation. The related folder names are: dr_cost_250_drup_0_drdown_5, dr_cost_250_drup_0_drdown_15, dr_cost_500_drup_0_drdown_5, dr_cost_500_drup_0_drdown_15, dr_cost_750_drup_0_drdown_5, and dr_cost_750_drup_0_drdown_15. Combination of delayed generator retirements and demand response through curtailment sensitivity experiment: The impact of combining postponing 100% nuclear and 25% natural gas retirements with 5% demand available for curtailment with 750 $/MWh compensation is simulated. The related folder is named "dr_cost_750_drup_0_drdown_5_nuc_100_gas_25". Please refer to the README file for a detailed description of the dataset including individual files and references.

Artificial Intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exploring Building Retrofit Strategies Using AutoBEM Under Future Weather Scenarios

This study evaluates the long-term effectiveness of energy conservation measures (ECMs) on building energy consumption using AutoBEM, a scalable modeling framework driven by the high-resolution Model America dataset. We simulated 18,951 buildings in Flagstaff, Arizona under four climate scenarios using Future Typical Meteorological Year (fTMY) weather files for six time periods spanning from 1980 to 2099. Six ECMs were analyzed across electricity and gas usage, including HVAC fuel-switching, insulation upgrades, and infiltration control. While some measures, such as reducing space infiltration by percentage, showed minimal or even negative impact on total energy savings at the aggregate level, they proved highly effective for specific building types. Conversely, HVAC electrification offers high gas reduction but shifts demand to electricity, highlighting critical trade-offs under different climate trajectories. Building-type-specific analysis under SSP5-RCP8.5 (2080–2099) revealed significant variation in ECM performance, underscoring the need for targeted retrofit strategies. This study demonstrates the power of combining fTMY projections with large-scale simulations to inform data-driven retrofit planning.

Chowdhury, Shovan [ORNL]↗
NASA NTRS1995

A Model for Particle Microphysics, Turbulent Mixing, and Radiative Transfer in the Stratocumulus-Topped Marine Boundary Layer and Comparisons with Measurements

A detailed 1D model of the stratocumulus-topped marine boundary layer is described. The model has three coupled components: a microphysics module that resolves the size distributions of aerosols and cloud droplets, a turbulence module that treats vertical mixing between layers, and a multiple wavelength radiative transfer module that calculates radiative heating rates and cloud optical properties. The results of a 12-h model simulation reproduce reasonably well the bulk thermodynamics, microphysical properties, and radiative fluxes measured in an approx. 500-m thick, summertime marine stratocumulus cloud layer by Nicholls. However, in this case, the model predictions of turbulent fluxes between the cloud and subcloud layers exceed the measurements. Results of model simulations are also compared to measurements of a marine stratus layer made under gale conditions and with measurements of a high, thin marine stratocumulus layer. The variations in cloud properties are generally reproduced by the model, although it underpredicts the entrainment of overlying air at cloud top under gale conditions. Sensitivities of the model results are explored. The vertical profile of cloud droplet concentration is sensitive to the lower size cutoff of the droplet size distribution due to the presence of unactivated haze particles in the lower region of the modeled cloud. Increases in total droplet concentrations do not always produce less drizzle and more cloud water in the model. The radius of the mean droplet volume does not correlate consistently with drizzle, but the effective droplet radius does. The greatest impacts on cloud properties predicted by the model are produced by halving the width of the size distribution of input condensation nuclei and by omitting the effect of cloud-top radiative cooling on the condensational growth of cloud droplets. The omission of infrared scattering produces noticeable changes in cloud properties. The collection efficiencies for droplets less than 30-micrometers radius, and the value of the accommodation coefficient for condensational droplet growth, have noticeable effects on cloud properties. The divergence of the horizontal wind also has a significant effect on a 12-h model simulation of cloud structure. Conclusions drawn from the model are tentative because of the limitations of the 1D model framework. A principal simplification is that the model assumes horizontal homogeneity, and, therefore, does not resolve updrafts and downdrafts. Likely consequences of this simplification include overprediction of the growth of droplets by condensation in the upper region of the cloud, underprediction of droplet condensational growth in the lower region of the cloud, and underprediction of peak supersaturations.

Ackerman, Andrew S.↗