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NASA NTRS1994

Fault Tree Based Diagnosis with Optimal Test Sequencing for Field Service Engineers

When field service engineers go to customer sites to service equipment, they want to diagnose and repair failures quickly and cost effectively. Symptoms exhibited by failed equipment frequently suggest several possible causes which require different approaches to diagnosis. This can lead the engineer to follow several fruitless paths in the diagnostic process before they find the actual failure. To assist in this situation, we have developed the Fault Tree Diagnosis and Optimal Test Sequence (FTDOTS) software system that performs automated diagnosis and ranks diagnostic hypotheses based on failure probability and the time or cost required to isolate and repair each failure. FTDOTS first finds a set of possible failures that explain exhibited symptoms by using a fault tree reliability model as a diagnostic knowledge to rank the hypothesized failures based on how likely they are and how long it would take or how much it would cost to isolate and repair them. This ordering suggests an optimal sequence for the field service engineer to investigate the hypothesized failures in order to minimize the time or cost required to accomplish the repair task. Previously, field service personnel would arrive at the customer site and choose which components to investigate based on past experience and service manuals. Using FTDOTS running on a portable computer, they can now enter a set of symptoms and get a list of possible failures ordered in an optimal test sequence to help them in their decisions. If facilities are available, the field engineer can connect the portable computer to the malfunctioning device for automated data gathering. FTDOTS is currently being applied to field service of medical test equipment. The techniques are flexible enough to use for many different types of devices. If a fault tree model of the equipment and information about component failure probabilities and isolation times or costs are available, a diagnostic knowledge base for that device can be developed easily.

Iverson, David L.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Correlation function metrology for warm dense matter: Recent developments and practical guidelines

X-ray Thomson scattering (XRTS) has emerged as a valuable diagnostic for matter under extreme conditions, as it captures the intricate many-body physics of the probed sample. Recent advances, such as the model-free temperature diagnostic of Dornheim et al. [Nat. Commun. 13 , 7911 (2022)], have demonstrated how much information can be extracted directly within the imaginary-time formalism. However, since the imaginary-time formalism is a concept often difficult to grasp, we provide here a systematic overview of its theoretical foundations and explicitly demonstrate its practical applications to temperature inference, including relevant subtleties. Furthermore, we present recent developments that enable the determination of the absolute normalization, Rayleigh weight, and density from XRTS measurements without reliance on uncontrolled model assumptions. Finally, we outline a unified workflow that guides the extraction of these key observables, offering a practical framework for applying the method to interpret experimental measurements.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2014

Impact of plasma response on plasma displacements in DIII-D during application of external 3D perturbations

The effects of applied non-axisymmetric resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) are predicted without and with self-consistent plasma response by modeling of the magnetic field structure and two-fluid MHD simulations, respectively. A synthetic diagnostic is used to simulate soft X-ray (SXR) emission within the steep gradient region of the pedestal, 0.98 > ψ > 0.94. The entire pedestal and edge region is characterized by large changes in plasma rotation and current density. Those parameters are expected to strongly affect the plasma response to RMPs. The M3D-C1 code takes into account this response self-consistently. The plasma response is investigated in detail and used in the forward modeling of the simulated local SXR emission, within the framework of the synthetic diagnostic. The resulting synthetic emission is compared to measured SXR data. The latter clearly shows helical m = 11 ± 1 displacements around the 11/3 rational surface of sizes up to 5 cm, which change with the poloidal angle. The synthetic emission with plasma response is used to explain the nature of the measured displacements. Different approaches are tested. One approach is based on the magnetic field structure to simulate local emission, which shows additional structures at the separatrix, that are caused by the lobes. Especially without plasma response, almost only separatrix structures are generated while no significant displacements are found further inside. Another approach to model local emission uses the fluid quantities electron density and temperature, as calculated by M3D-C1. Compared to the previous approach, based on the magnetic field structure, the emission simulated by the fluid approach with plasma response shows better agreement with the measured SXR data. To be specific, it has comparable displacements in the steep gradient region and no lobe structures at all. The helical displacements around the 11/3 surface are identified to be directly related to the kink response, caused by non-resonant amplification of various poloidal RMP modes due to plasma response. Regarding the latter, the role of different plasma parameters is investigated, but it appears that the electron rotation plays a key role in the formation of screening and resonant amplification, while the kinking appears to be sensitive to the edge current density. As a result, it is also hypothesised that the strength of the kink response is also correlated to edge-localized-mode (ELM) stability.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1986

Regional-scale estimates of surface moisture availability and thermal inertia using remote thermal measurements

A review is presented of numerical models which were developed to interpret thermal IR data and to identify the governing parameters and surface energy fluxes recorded in the images. Analytic, predictive, diagnostic and empirical models are described. The limitations of each type of modeling approach are explored in terms of the error sources and inherent constraints due to theoretical or measurement limitations. Sample results of regional-scale soil moisture or evaporation patterns derived from the Heat Capacity Mapping Mission and GOES satellite data through application of the predictive model devised by Carlson (1981) are discussed. The analysis indicates that pattern recognition will probably be highest when data are collected over flat, arid, sparsely vegetated terrain. The soil moisture data then obtained may be accurate to within 10-20 percent.

Carlson, T. N.↗

DOE OSTI2014

Verification of coronal loop diagnostics using realistic three-dimensional hydrodynamic models

Many different techniques have been used to characterize the plasma in the solar corona: density-sensitive spectral line ratios are used to infer the density, the evolution of coronal structures in different passbands is used to infer the temperature evolution, and the simultaneous intensities measured in multiple passbands are used to determine the emission measure distributions. All these analysis techniques assume that the intensity of the structures can be isolated through background subtraction. In this paper, we use simulated observations from a three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulation of a coronal active region to verify these diagnostics. The density and temperature from the simulation are used to generate images in several passbands and spectral lines. We identify loop structures in the simulated images and calculate the background. We then determine the density, temperature, and emission measure distribution as a function of time from the observations and compare these with the true temperature and density of the loop. We find that the overall characteristics of the temperature, density, and emission measure are recovered by the analysis methods, but the details are not. For instance, the emission measure curves calculated from the simulated observations are much broader than the true emission measure distribution, though the average temperature evolution is similar. These differences are due, in part, to a limitation of the analysis methods, but also to inadequate background subtraction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Neural Networks for Modeling and Control of Particle Accelerators

Particle accelerators are host to myriad nonlinear and complex physical phenomena. They often involve a multitude of interacting systems, are subject to tight performance demands, and should be able to run for extended periods of time with minimal interruptions. Often times, traditional control techniques cannot fully meet these requirements. One promising avenue is to introduce machine learning and sophisticated control techniques inspired by artificial intelligence, particularly in light of recent theoretical and practical advances in these fields. Within machine learning and artificial intelligence, neural networks are particularly well-suited to modeling, control, and diagnostic analysis of complex, nonlinear, and time-varying systems, as well as systems with large parameter spaces. Consequently, the use of neural network-based modeling and control techniques could be of significant benefit to particle accelerators. For the same reasons, particle accelerators are also ideal test-beds for these techniques. Many early attempts to apply neural networks to particle accelerators yielded mixed results due to the relative immaturity of the technology for such tasks. The purpose of this paper is to re-introduce neural networks to the particle accelerator community and report on some work in neural network control that is being conducted as part of a dedicated collaboration between Fermilab and Colorado State University (CSU). We describe some of the challenges of particle accelerator control, highlight recent advances in neural network techniques, discuss some promising avenues for incorporating neural networks into particle accelerator control systems, and describe a neural network-based control system that is being developed for resonance control of an RF electron gun at the Fermilab Accelerator Science and Technology (FAST) facility, including initial experimental results from a benchmark controller.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

NASA NTRS2008

Testing HyDE on ADAPT

The IVHM Project in the Aviation Safety Program has funded research in electrical power system (EPS) health management. This problem domain contains both discrete and continuous behavior, and thus is directly relevant for the hybrid diagnostic tool HyDE. In FY2007 work was performed to expand the HyDE diagnosis model of the ADAPT system. The work completed resulted in a HyDE model with the capability to diagnose five times the number of ADAPT components previously tested. The expanded diagnosis model passed a corresponding set of new ADAPT fault injection scenario tests with no incorrect faults reported. The time required for the HyDE diagnostic system to isolate the fault varied widely between tests; this variance was reduced by tuning HyDE input parameters. These results and other diagnostic design trade-offs are discussed. Finally, possible future improvements for both the HyDE diagnostic model and HyDE itself are presented.

Sweet, Adam↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Climate Simulations: Methodological Development and Results from MPAS-CAM over the U.S.

In this study, a process-oriented approach is developed to evaluate warm-season mesoscale convective system (MCS) precipitation and their favorable large-scale meteorological patterns (FLSMPs) over the U.S. This approach features a novel observation-driven MCS-tracking algorithm using infrared brightness temperature and precipitation feature at 12, 25 and 50 km resolution and metrics to evaluate the model large-scale environment favorable for MCS initiation. The tracking algorithm successfully reproduces the observed MCS statistics from a reference 4-km radar MCS database. To demonstrate the utility of the new methodologies in evaluating MCS in climate simulations with mesoscale resolution, the process-oriented approach is applied to two climate simulations produced by the Variable-Resolution Model for Prediction Across Scales coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model physics, with refined horizontal grid spacing at 50 km and 25 km over North America. With the tracking algorithm applied to simulations and observations at equivalent resolutions, the simulated number of MCS and associated precipitation amount, frequency and intensity are found to be consistently underestimated in the Central U.S., particularly from May to August. The simulated MCS precipitation shows little diurnal variation and lasts too long, while MCS precipitation area is too large and intensity is too weak. The model is able to simulate four types of observed FLSMP associated with frontal systems and low-level jets (LLJ) in spring, but the frequencies are underestimated because of low-level dry bias and weaker LLJ. Precipitation simulated under different FLSMPs peak during daytime, in contrast to the observed nocturnal peak. Implications of these findings for future model development and diagnostics are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2009

Alternative Representations of Convective Processes in the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM

The gap in explicit resolution of phenomena between global climate models and cloud resolving models is shrinking at a steady pace with global integrations of several km in resolution now practical for at least some time scales. In moving toward finer resolution the long standing problem of convective parameterization is being examined along with the assumption of convective quasi-equilibrium and how this can be reconciled with the stochastic and intermittent nature of convection. In this context we examine the nature of parameterized convection in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Our analysis uses both coarse (2.5 degree) and fine scale 0.25 degree spatial resolution integrations. Two basic formulations are compared: the default option is the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) scheme which invokes a sequence of linearly entraining plumes and quasi-equilibrium closure. An optional modification of this method (the "Stochastic Tokioka" constraint) places a random lower limit on plume entrainment. An alternative representation is the Kain-Fritsch parameterization which was originally developed for mesoscale numerical modeling strategies. Here entrainment is determined by a crude buoyancy sorting approach that allows the plume spectrum to be more responsive to ambient vertical stratification of moisture. Diagnostics of the model behavior are referenced to recent observational evidence of continuous phase transition behavior. In particular we examine the relationship between column water vapor and probablility of convective presence and intensity. Sensitivity of the statistics of convective behavior to parcel mixing/entrainment formulations and parcel initial thermodynamics are considered. Observational statistics from A-Train and TRMM sensors provide validation of the model integrations.

Robertson, Franklin↗

NASA NTRS1996

Method of Testing and Predicting Failures of Electronic Mechanical Systems

A method employing a knowledge base of human expertise comprising a reliability model analysis implemented for diagnostic routines is disclosed. The reliability analysis comprises digraph models that determine target events created by hardware failures human actions, and other factors affecting the system operation. The reliability analysis contains a wealth of human expertise information that is used to build automatic diagnostic routines and which provides a knowledge base that can be used to solve other artificial intelligence problems.

Iverson, David L.↗

DOE OSTI2016

International land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Package v001.00

As a contribution to International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Project, we are providing new analysis approaches, benchmarking tools, and science leadership. The goal of ILAMB is to assess and improve the performance of land models through international cooperation and to inform the design of new measurement campaigns and field studies to reduce uncertainties associated with key biogeochemical processes and feedbacks. ILAMB is expected to be a primary analysis tool for CMIP6 and future model-data intercomparison experiments. This team has developed initial prototype benchmarking systems for ILAMB, which will be improved and extended to include ocean model metrics and diagnostics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2021

A Phenomenon-Based Decomposition of Model-Based Estimates of Boreal Winter ENSO Variability

Climate models are now routinely being used to simulate and predict climate variability on time scales ranging from sub-seasonal to seasonal and longer. As such, there are now long histories of such simulations and predictions spanning multiple decades and multiple ensemble members, both of which are crucial for separating climate signal from climate noise. A key focus of such runs has been the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), spurred by recent improvements in our ability to predict such events, though questions remain as to how well climate models do beyond simply always predicting the “canonical” atmospheric response to an ENSO event—something simple statistical models already do reasonably well. This is a critical issue that needs addressing, given the importance of event-to-event differences for predicting regional impacts of ENSO teleconnections, and the need to justify the expense of running sophisticated climate models. Unfortunately, current diagnostic tools are not well suited for quantifying the different sources of variability associated with specific phenomena such as ENSO. More generally, while much effort has focused on addressing model bias, less has been done to address errors in second moment statistics—an issue whose importance is gaining increased attention particularly as we build climate prediction systems capable of taking advantage of forecasts of opportunity—a capability that requires reliable estimates of forecast uncertainty. In this report, we outline a phenomenon-based statistical decomposition of climate variance(in essence a detailed variance budget)that is specifically tailored to address the above questions by separating the variability (both the signal and noise) into that tied to the long-term average impact of a particular phenomenon(the composite mean) and the event-to-event(E2E) variability about the composite mean. In addition, we provide related decompositions of the correlations that allow us to quantify how much of the agreement with observations (the skill) comes from the composite mean as opposed to from the E2Evariability. As an example, we present the results of such a decomposition for ENSO based on simulations with the GEOS atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), with a focus on the monthly mean impacts over North America during boreal winter(December –March). Here we take advantage of existing GEOS AGCM simulations that were produced as companion simulations to MERRA-2for the period 1980-2016. Comparisons are made throughout with MERRA-2.

ENSO↗

DOE OSTI2022

Global biomass supply modeling for long-run management of the climate system

Bioenergy is projected to have a prominent, valuable, and maybe essential, role in climate management. However, there is significant variation in projected bioenergy deployment results, as well as concerns about the potential environmental and social implications of supplying biomass. Bioenergy deployment projections are market equilibrium solutions from integrated modeling, yet little is known about the underlying modeling of the supply of biomass as a feedstock for energy use in these modeling frameworks. We undertake a novel diagnostic analysis with ten global models to elucidate, compare, and assess how biomass is supplied within the models used to inform long-run climate management. With experiments that isolate and reveal biomass supply modeling behavior and characteristics (costs, emissions, land use, market effects), we learn about biomass supply tendencies and differences. The insights provide a new level of modeling transparency and understanding of estimated global biomass supplies that informs evaluation of the potential for bioenergy in managing the climate and interpretation of integrated modeling. For each model, we characterize the potential distributions of global biomass supply across regions and feedstock types for increasing levels of quantity supplied, as well as some of the potential societal externalities of supplying biomass. We also evaluate the biomass supply implications of managing these externalities. Finally, we interpret biomass market results from integrated modeling in terms of our new understanding of biomass supply. Overall, we find little consensus between models on where biomass could be cost-effectively produced and the implications. We also reveal model specific biomass supply narratives, with results providing new insights into integrated modeling bioenergy outcomes and differences. The analysis finds that many integrated models are considering and managing emissions and land use externalities of supplying biomass and estimating that environmental and societal trade-offs in the form of land emissions, land conversion, and higher agricultural prices are cost-effective, and to some degree a reality of using biomass, to address climate change.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Modeling and simulation of a beam emission spectroscopy diagnostic for the ITER prototype neutral beam injector

A test facility for the development of the neutral beam injection system for ITER is under construction at Consorzio RFX. It will host two experiments: SPIDER, a 100 keV H{sup −}/D{sup −} ion RF source, and MITICA, a prototype of the full performance ITER injector (1 MV, 17 MW beam). A set of diagnostics will monitor the operation and allow to optimize the performance of the two prototypes. In particular, beam emission spectroscopy will measure the uniformity and the divergence of the fast particles beam exiting the ion source and travelling through the beam line components. This type of measurement is based on the collection of the H{sub α}/D{sub α} emission resulting from the interaction of the energetic particles with the background gas. A numerical model has been developed to simulate the spectrum of the collected emissions in order to design this diagnostic and to study its performance. The paper describes the model at the base of the simulations and presents the modeled H{sub α} spectra in the case of MITICA experiment.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2016

International land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Package v002.00

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulation of a rapid compression machine for evaluation of ignition chemistry and soot formation using gasoline/ethanol blends

Due to the projected decline of demand for gasoline in light duty engines and the advent of ethanol as a green fuel, the use of gasoline/ethanol blend fuels in heavy duty applications are being investigated as they are projected to have lower cost and lower lifecycle green house gas (GHG) emissions. In heavy duty engines, the primary mode of combustion is mixing controlled combustion where wide range of mixture conditions (equivalence ratio) exist. Soot emissions of these fuels in richer conditions are not well understood. The goal of this research is to evaluate some commercially available soot modeling codes for the particulate matter emissions from gasoline/ethanol fuel blends, especially at fuel rich conditions. A Rapid Compression Machine (RCM) is modeled in a three-dimensional numerical simulation using CONVERGE computational software using a reduced chemical kinetic mechanism with SAGE chemistry solver and a RANS k-ϵturbulence model with a sector model including the creviced piston. The creviced piston is used in the experimental setup to reduce boundary layer effects and to maintain a homogeneous core in the reaction cylinder. Computational fluid dynamics simulations are conducted for different gasoline-ethanol fuel blends from E10 (10% ethanol v/v) to E100. The fuel blend is modeled as a surrogate mixture of toluene, iso-octane, n-heptane for gasoline content, and ethanol. The computational results were validated against experimental results using pressure measurements and laser extinction diagnostics. Different soot models are investigated to evaluate their capability of predicting the sooting tendencies of fuel blends, especially in richer conditions experienced during mixing-controlled combustion. The experimental combustion characteristics such as the ignition delay of different blends of fuel are reasonably well predicted. The Particulate Size Mimic (PSM) model accurately predicts the soot generation characteristics of the different fuels, but the Hiroyasu-NSC model falls short in this regard. For accurate prediction of soot with the PSM model, the thermodynamic conditions during combustion must be accurately modeled. While the current computational modeling tools can produce accurate results for the prediction of particulate matter emissions, there is much work to be done in improving our understanding of the underlying fundamental processes.

Energy & Fuels↗

DOE OSTI2017

Determining appropriate data analytics for transformer health monitoring - 107

Transformers are vital assets for the safe, reliable and cost-effective operation of nuclear power plants. The unexpected failure of a transformer can lead to different consequences ranging from a lack of export capability, with the corresponding economic penalties, to catastrophic failure, with the associated health, safety and economic effects. Condition monitoring techniques examine the health of the transformer periodically, with the aim to identify early indicators of anomalies. However, many transformer failures occur because diagnostic and monitoring models do not identify degraded conditions in time. Therefore, health monitoring is an essential component to transformer life cycle management. Existing tools for transformer health monitoring use traditional dissolved gas analysis based diagnostics techniques. With the advance of prognostics and health management (PHM) applications, we can enhance traditional transformer health monitoring techniques using PHM analytics. The design of an appropriate data analytics system requires a multi-stage design process including: (i) specification of engineering requirements; (ii) characterization of existing data sources and analytics to identify complementary techniques; (iii) development of the functional specification of the analytics suite to formalize its behavior, and finally (iv) deployment, validation, and verification of the functional requirements in the final platform. Accordingly, in this paper we propose a transformer analytics suite which incorporates anomaly detection, diagnostics, and prognostics modules in order to complement existing tools for transformer health monitoring. (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2015

Diagnostic Reasoning using Prognostic Information for Unmanned Aerial Systems

With increasing popularity of unmanned aircraft, continuous monitoring of their systems, software, and health status is becoming more and more important to ensure safe, correct, and efficient operation and fulfillment of missions. The paper presents integration of prognosis models and prognostic information with the R2U2 (REALIZABLE, RESPONSIVE, and UNOBTRUSIVE Unit) monitoring and diagnosis framework. This integration makes available statistically reliable health information predictions of the future at a much earlier time to enable autonomous decision making. The prognostic information can be used in the R2U2 model to improve diagnostic accuracy and enable decisions to be made at the present time to deal with events in the future. This will be an advancement over the current state of the art, where temporal logic observers can only do such valuation at the end of the time interval. Usefulness and effectiveness of this integrated diagnostics and prognostics framework was demonstrated using simulation experiments with the NASA Dragon Eye electric unmanned aircraft.

Diagnostics↗