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At least 469 records · Page 26

End-Use Savings Shapes Upgrade Package Documentation: LED Lighting, HP-RTU and ASHP-Boiler

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock and ComStock models over the past 3 years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) upgrade measures, or upgrades. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility upgrade applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on an upgrade package of three end-use savings shapes upgrades - Light Emitting Diode (LED) Lighting, Heat Pump Rooftop Unit (RTU) (HP-RTU), and Air-Source Heat Pump (ASHP) Boiler, which we will refer to collectively as the "Interior Lighting and Heat Pump" package. More details on the individual upgrades can be found on the ComStock Measures Documentation page. An upgrade package applies two or more EUSS upgrades to a single building model simulation. Since ComStock is a bottom-up physics-based model, an upgrade package will go beyond aggregating or summing the individual upgrade results and produce novel results by simulating interactions between the upgrades. For example, pairing an envelope upgrade with an electrification upgrade would likely result in higher savings results than the sum of these upgrades individually, and the size of the heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment may be reduced if the envelope upgrade reduces the loads significantly.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NREL’s Wind Turbine Drivetrain Condition Monitoring and Wind Plant Operation and Maintenance Research During the 2010s: A US Land-Based Perspective

The wind industry has seen tremendous growth during the past two decades, with the global cumulative installation capacity reaching more than 650 gigawatts by the end of 2019. Despite performance and reliability improvements of utility-scale wind turbines over the years, the industry still experiences premature component failures, leading to increased operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Among various turbine components, gearboxes—and, more broadly, drivetrains—have shown to be costly to maintain throughout the design life of a wind turbine. The problem of premature component failure is industry wide. As early as 2007, the US Department of Energy (DOE) started to address this challenge through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) reliability initiative that first focused on gearboxes and more recently expanded to entire drivetrains. The wind turbine drivetrain condition monitoring and wind plant O&M research that is the subject of this paper is part of the NREL initiative and includes a few research and development (R&D) activities conducted during the 2010s. These activities included technology evaluation during the first few years; novel monitoring technique investigation (specifically, compact filter analysis) during the middle years; and data and physics domain modeling for fault detection and prediction in recent years. A high-level summary of these activities is provided in this paper along with some key observations from each activity. Most of the work discussed has been published and can be referred to for more information. They reflect the expected evolution of wind turbine condition monitoring and O&M in the US market—primarily, a land-based perspective. In addition, we have identified several R&D opportunities that can be picked up by the research community to help industry advance in related areas, making wind power more cost competitive in the future.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

We Just Want to Pump…You Up! Forecasting Grid-Connected Heat Pump Water Heater Energy Savings and Load Shifting Potential for the Southeast U.S.

Heat pump water heaters (HPWH) can achieve energy savings of 60-70% compared to conventional electric-resistance water heaters. However, even with a favorable simple payback period within the typical product lifetime, HPWHs make up only 1% of all electric water heaters sold in the residential sector. Market adoption is challenged, in part, by the lack of effective energy efficiency programs in the U.S. region with the greatest amount of residential electric water heaters. The recent integration of connected functionality into HPWHs offers the capability to shift load without undue negative impact on customers. This capability can provide value to utilities with peak load constraints, motivating them to promote HPWHs for the first time. This paper will present a methodology to forecast connected HPWH energy use and extrapolate load shifting potential for the Southeast U.S. region. The methodology leverages data from a robust connected HPWH field study conducted in the Pacific Northwest. A coefficient of performance (COP) relationship for HPWHs was developed using ambient and inlet water temperature data to forecast HPWH performance on a month-by-month basis. Using the forecasted COP, HPWH operating hours were calculated for meeting load, which serve as the proxy to extrapolate load shifting potential from the Pacific Northwest to the Southeast. As a use case, analytical results are presented for a specific utility. This methodology, in combination with market analysis, facilitates the development of customized energy savings and load shifting forecasts to understand the potential impacts of launching connected HPWH programs in specific utility service territories.

heat pump water heater, energy savings, load shift↗

Supply analysis of preferential market incentive for energy crops

This analysis explores the valuation of feedstock quality attributes of switchgrass and miscanthus – two energy crops poised for future expansion – and compares the relative economic availability of these two crops under two scenarios: (i) uniform price assumptions (i.e., no incentive for quality), and (ii) a scenario of a price premium based on convertibility (i.e., an incentive for quality). Given data on cellulose content, hemicellulose content, and their relative convertibility, miscanthus is expected to be 11% more efficient at conversion to biofuels than switchgrass under the biochemical conversion route. Based on this scenario of improved conversion efficiency and associated profit, we simulate an 11% price premium for miscanthus over other feedstocks in a base-case scenario. By adding this price premium, supplies of miscanthus increase over the base case by about 4 million (44%), 94 million (64%), and 166 million (94%) tons in year 0, 10, and 20 after simulated contracts for production are initiated respectively. These results emphasize that custom simulations are needed to quantify feedstock availability if supplies are intended to reflect grower response to industry demands for feedstock quality specifications. Farmers can grow ‘peas or carrots’, and price signals from biorefineries will influence what energy crops they produce. Recognizing that the energy crop mix is tractable according to quality characteristics is relevant both for near-term and long-term biofuels research and development. Here, we recommend accounting for market preferences for quality attributes when estimating potential future supplies of energy crops.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Aggregate attack surface management for network discovery of operational technology

Interconnectivity has become a substratum of technology as the benefits of data-driven functionality are being realized in nearly all industries. Increased connectivity of Operational Technology (OT) exacerbates cyber risks because Industrial Control Systems (ICS) are becoming exposed to the Internet. These exposures are often done inadvertently through misconfigurations as additional network devices come online. Attack surface management (ASM) platforms can be used to identify vulnerabilities by performing external network discovery over the Internet using web spiders. These web spiders enable big data analytics of Internet of Things (IoT) devices as identifiable information of Internet-exposed equipment are archived in searchable databases that are made publicly available. There are a multitude of ASM service providers on the market. Here, this study was conducted to evaluate several commonly known tools to determine the aggregate attack surface of control systems. Queries were crafted by targeting commonly known manufacturers and communication protocols found in OT networks. Identified devices were that categorized based on technology types. Each query was replicated between several tools to target identical ICS equipment. Findings in this paper suggested a significant variance in the exposures discovered by each tool, but unique contributions were identified for each tool when a merged attack surface was derived. Therefore, all tools should be used in aggregate.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Policy choices and outcomes for offshore wind auctions globally

Offshore wind energy is rapidly expanding, facilitated largely through auctions run by governments. We provide a detailed quantified overview of utilised auction schemes, including geographical spread, volumes, results, and design specifications. Our comprehensive global dataset reveals heterogeneous designs. Although most auction designs provide some form of revenue stabilisation, their specific instrument choices vary and include feed-in tariffs, one-sided and two-sided contracts for difference, mandated power purchase agreements, and mandated renewable energy certificates. We review the schemes used in all eight major offshore wind jurisdictions across Europe, Asia, and North America and evaluate bids in their jurisdictional context. We analyse cost competitiveness, likelihood of timely construction, occurrence of strategic bidding, and identify jurisdictional aspects that might have influenced auction results. We find that auctions are embedded within their respective regulatory and market design context, and are remarkably diverse, though with regional similarities. Auctions in each jurisdiction have evolved and tend to become more exposed to market price risks over time. Less mature markets are more prone to make use of lower-risk designs. Still, some form of revenue stabilisation is employed for all auctioned offshore wind energy farms analysed here, regardless of the specific policy choices. Our data confirm a coincidence of declining costs and growing diffusion of auction regimes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

High Performance Adaptive Deep-Reinforcement-Learning-based Real-time Emergency Control (HADREC) to Enhance Power Grid Resilience in Stochastic Environment (Final Report)

The HADREC technology developed in this project features real-time, validated, and predictive emergency control capabilities needed to effectively safeguard the grid against costly disturbances from extreme weather and other disruptive events. It has the potential to revolutionize the emergency control by providing faster and more effective solution for power grid emergency control. The technology can reduce the grid emergency control action time from minutes to seconds and mitigate the impact of outages and reduce system recovery time. The evaluation results using the models and data from PacifiCorp system have shown ~20% improvement in responding time and 70% improved in tripped generator output, comparing against today’s industrial application. This performance can help reduce preventive measurements and improve network utilization and market efficiency, and help lead to a more reliable and resilient power grid with renewable integration. The project has generated significant interest from industry, academic and commercial companies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

University of Hawai‘i, Shallow Geothermal Resources: Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project (Final Report)

Scientists at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) have teamed up with the University of Hawai‘i at Manoa (UH Manoa) through the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project to evaluate the technological and market feasibility of shallow geothermal heat exchanger (GHE) technology. UH requested this analysis to evaluate opportunities in building cooling, energy efficiency, and emissions reduction applications in Hawai‘i. UH has an abundance of geologic and geothermal data and is looking to the national labs’ expertise to execute this analysis. UH is also interested in investigating policy, regulatory, and business conditions advantageous for implementation of a pilot project and more broad deployment of this technology in Hawai‘i. In many locations around the world, the demands for heating and cooling are roughly balanced over the course of the year, so GHEs do not cause significant long-term changes in subsurface temperature. This is not the case in Hawai’i, where the demand for heating is very small, meaning that, over time, GHEs will add heat to the subsurface. If temperatures increase significantly, GHE systems will not work as designed. Regional groundwater flow has the potential to sweep heated water away from boreholes, thereby maintaining the functionality of the GHE system. Significant regional groundwater flow requires two things: a sufficiently large driving hydraulic head gradient (usually closely related to surface topography), and sufficient porosity and permeability to enable groundwater to flow in large enough quantities to enable near-borehole temperatures to be maintained at ambient values. Hawai‘i’s volcanic terrain offers ample surface topographic variation. The lava itself shows an extremely large range of porosity and permeability, so sites with large enough values of these properties must be selected. Numerical modeling of coupled groundwater and heat flow can be used to determine how large is large enough. Primarily, closed-loop systems have been investigated. Other options considered are open-loop systems and using cool seawater as the chilling source. Project work investigated the feasibility of GHE technology at two scales. At the island scale, GIS layers of various attributes relevant for GHE were combined to develop an overall favorability map for employing GHE in Hawai‘i. At the local scale, a hydrogeologic model for the subsurface component of a closed-loop system was developed for the Stan Sheriff Center at the UH Manoa campus. This site is considered promising because the rock below and immediately downgradient of the borefield is highly permeable, consisting of a subsurface karst system (limestone containing high-permeability open channels), which is underlain by a thick, high-permeability fractured basalt. Moreover, the site is near the base of the Ko‘olau Range, providing a large hydraulic head gradient. Thus, groundwater flow through the site is expected to be large, enabling efficient removal of heated groundwater. A full-GHE-system model of the site was also developed, with a simplified representation of the subsurface, in which groundwater flow is not considered and heat transfer is purely by conduction. Using the building cooling load data provided by UH, simulation results show that with groundwater flow present, a GHE can operate successfully for at least 10 years, but with no groundwater flow, the subsurface begins to heat up after only one year of operation, making the GHE unviable within 2-6 years. The team also developed a techno-economic model for this site to compare the cost of cooling using a GHE system with the costs of operating the current air-conditioning system. The GHE system is advantageous economically if favorable tax incentives and interest rates can be obtained.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Agent-Based, Bottom-Up Medium- and Heavy-duty Electric Vehicle Economics, Operation, Charging and Adoption (Research Performance Final Report)

This is the research performance final report for the project entitled: Agent-Based, Bottom-Up Medium- and Heavy-duty Electric Vehicle Economics, Operation, Charging and Adoption This project was able to achieve the DOE’s goals of developing new modeling tools to understand MDHD vehicle operation and adoption. The first modeling tool is a fleet-level techno-economic analysis model capable of estimating energy use and associated environmental and cost impacts for electrified and conventional vehicles of any MDHD vocation, using real-world cost and operations data, including approaches to optimizing schedules for charging and/or vehicle dispatch. The second modeling tool is a system-level, bottom-up, agent-based adoption model capable of generating geographically-resolved estimates of market projections for MDHD vehicles and charging infrastructure. These tools will be developed and published to serve dual purposes as analysis tools for researchers, and decision-support tools for decision makers within the MDHD system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Charging Needs for Battery Electric Semi Trucks

Battery-electric vehicles provide a pathway to decarbonize heavy-duty trucking, but the market for electric trucks is nascent, and specific charging requirements remain uncertain. This paper summarizes methods and findings from Charging Needs for Electric Semi-Trailer Trucks [1] wherein we leverage large-scale vehicle telematics data (>205 million miles of driving) to estimate the charging behaviors and infrastructure requirements for U.S. battery-electric semi-trailer trucks within three operating segments: local, regional, and long-haul. We model two types of charging - mid-shift (fast en-route charging) and off-shift (slow depot charging) - and show that off-shift charging at speeds compatible with current light-duty charging infrastructure (i.e., =350 kW) can supply 35% to 77% of total energy demand for local and regional trucks with =300-mile range. Megawatt-level speeds are required for mid-shift charging, which make up 44% to 57% of energy demand for long-haul trucks with =500-mile range. However, the role of off-shift charging increases as the range for battery-electric trucks increases and when off-shift charging is widely available.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Integrated solution techniques for security constrained unit commitment problem

Apparatus and methods are disclosed for solving Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) problems, such as Security Constrained Unit Commitment (SCUC) problems used by power grid authorities to perform day-ahead market clearing. In certain examples, a plurality of threads of a software tool implementing a concurrent optimizer can be executed concurrently and sequentially to generate new solutions to a SCUC problem for an upcoming planning horizon. Data can be shared among the concurrently executing threads, such as intermediate/incumbent solutions and hints regarding the fixing of variables and constraints to reduce the size of the SCUC problem. In some examples, the threads are seeded with historical solutions from prior planning horizons. The software tool can select a best solution from the solutions generated by the threads, and determine dispatch instructions for a device coupled to the power grid for the upcoming planning horizon based at least in part on the selected solution.

Pan, Feng↗

A Comprehensive Scientific Survey of Excipients Used in Currently Marketed, Therapeutic Biological Drug Products

The steady development of biotechnology-derived therapeutic biologics over the last few decades has generated drugs that are now standard medical treatments for a range of indications. While the development of protein products has surged in recent years, the formulation and delivery of these complex molecules have relied on drug-specific studies and, in some instances, data from non-proteinaceous drug products. The commonalities, trends, and gaps in excipient technologies used to support the development of therapeutic proteins largely remain unexplored due to the drug-specific nature of many formulations. Using a comprehensive and relational database approach, we aimed to provide a scientific survey of all approved or licensed biotechnology-derived drug products with the goal of providing evidence-based information on common attributes and trending features in protein product excipients. We examined 665 formulations, and 395 unique formulations based on having unique excipients within them, that supported 211 therapeutic proteins as of June 2020. We report the prevalence of each excipient class and excipient chemical used in eight different drug types including monoclonal antibodies, antibody conjugates, cytokines and growth factors, enzymes, polypeptide hormones, pulmonary surfactants, recombinant fusion proteins, and toxins. We also report the prevalence by excipient type among all therapeutic proteins, in the context of each drug’s recommended pH range, concentration ranges for excipients, and route of administration. The results of our analyses indicate certain excipients common to monoclonal antibodies, cytokines, and polypeptide hormones. We also report on excipients unique to protein drug products, such as amino acids, solubilizers, and lyoprotectants. Overall, our report summarizes the current landscape of excipients used in marketed biotechnology-derived therapeutic biologic products.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Demonstration of μCHP in Light Commercial Hot Water Applications

Internal combustion engine driven combined heat and power (CHP) systems produce power while the waste heat is recovered and used for another purpose. For µCHP systems (less than 50kWe output) overall efficiencies can reach over 90% for products currently on the market throughout the world. On a fuel basis this offers an advantage over using grid-based power and another fuel for heat. Additionally, the cost of natural gas on an energy unit basis is significantly less expensive than electric power. This difference can lead to substantial savings for the end user of a CHP system. In some parts of the world, particularly Germany and Japan, µCHP has become a common part of the heat and distributed generation equipment mix. Market analysis conducted in 2012 showed that in North America there is potential of a 5,300 units per year market for µCHP, resulting in an annual energy savings of approximately 13.5 TBtu and more than $84 million in annual customer savings. However, µCHP still has not seen much market penetration in North America. This study helps to identify some of the reasons why, address roadblocks that still need to be overcome and provide experience to established best practices. Nine commercial sites were initially identified (fitness club, surgical center, senior community, resort and spa, commercial laundry, two multi-family housing, restaurant and manufacturing facility). Systems from two different manufacturers were installed at five sites total, but due to unforeseen circumstances, only three of those sites were finally commissioned: test data were collected by Oak Ridge National Laboratory. While not all systems were installed as intended, the project resulted in the following key findings: Micro combined heat and power is an unfamiliar technology for building owners and plumbing and electrical contractors that serve the buildings most suited for µCHP. Manufacturers will need to be aggressive in providing training and providing broad support to successfully bring the technology to market.; The proper integration of µCHP into other building systems is the most critical part of a successful installation. Manufacturers will need to be able to provide the expertise to train, advise and support the mechanical contractors during the design and installation of the heat integration system.; Regulations governing µCHP varies across the country. There are a few UL standards (UL 2200 and UL 1741) that apply nationally. Emissions are governed by EPA except in California where the California Air Resources Board (CARB) has established their own standard. Requirements that dictate installation and interconnection are dependent on local building codes and local utility processes and requirements. Some out of date building codes do not offer clear guidance for these requirements, leading to confusion. This makes developing training and determining broadly applicable best practices difficult.; Installation costs of µCHP are a key factor in making an installation successful. It is critical that these costs and all national, state and local regulations be understood and accounted for by all parties involved in the installation before a project is undertaken.; A robust customer service organization is important to meet the needs of the customers. These systems require annual maintenance and service and local capability is needed to keep costs inline.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

FCET Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Testing and Development: CRADA 526 [Abstract only]

The purpose of the proposed project is for PNNL to test the performance of prototype solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) created by FCET. Such testing will provide FCET with independent performance data that can be communicated to potential clients and/or investors. Additionally, PNNL will collaborate with FCET on design changes to improve fuel cell performance. Intellectual property developed in this way will benefit FCET with improved products to market, and PNNL through royalty revenue. The key technology held by FCET is a process to deposit extremely thin layers of oxide materials, from 10-50 nm in thickness. The range of possible materials that can be deposited with their method is broad, but this project will focus on the yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) electrolytes for SOFCs. Thin, gas tight YSZ membranes have been a long-sought target in SOFC research. The thinner the YSZ, the lower the cell resistance, and the higher performance of the cell (or the lower the operating temperature). 10-50 nm would be a major step change in YSZ thickness from the state of the art. PNNL can team with FCET on future R&D projects and push this technology forward to improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Commercial Building Sensors and Controls Systems - Barriers, Drivers, and Costs

Optimized building sensors and controls systems could lead to 29% annual energy savings in commercial buildings and are integral to the growth of grid-interactive efficient buildings. However, only 8% of small commercial buildings have installed sensors and controls systems-which is largely due to cost barriers. This publication seeks to increase the transparency of system costs and identify specific barriers and drivers for increased adoption. Qualitative interview data was collected from 20 interviews with industry and qualitative cost data was collected from invoices during the interviews. The greater understanding of costs and barriers associated with commercial building sensors and controls systems lays the groundwork for future steps in increasing system adoption, reducing energy consumption, and market transformation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Energy Cost Analysis and Operational Range Prediction Based on Medium- and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Real-World Deployments across the United States

While the market for medium- and heavy-duty battery-electric vehicles (MHD EVs) is still nascent, a growing number of these vehicles are being deployed across the U.S. This study used over 2.3 million miles of operational data from multiple types of MHD EVs across various regions and operating conditions to address knowledge gaps in total cost of ownership and operational range. First, real-world energy cost savings were determined: MHD fleets should experience energy cost savings each year from 2021 to 2035, regardless of vehicle platform, with the greatest savings seen in transit buses (up to USD 4459 annually) and HD trucks (up to USD 3284 annually). Second, to help fleets across various geographies throughout the U.S. assess the suitability of EVs for their year-round operating needs, operational range was modeled using the XGBoost algorithm (R2: 70%) given 22 input features relevant to vehicle efficiency. Finally, this paper recommends (1) that MHD fleets apply energy-saving practices to minimize the impacts of cold temperatures and high congestion levels on vehicle efficiency and range, and (2) that local hauling fleets select trucks with a nominal range nearly double the expected maximum daily range to account for range losses under local, urban driving conditions.

Qiu, Yin (ORCID:0009000900948794)↗

A User-Facing Metric to Quantify the Quality of Mobility (CRADA Final Report)

The leading urban mobility data analytics firm StreetLight Data, Inc. partnered with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to explore a commercial version of the Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric. The commercialization effort was aimed to expand the adoption of the metric to key stakeholders in the urban planning space. Research comprised industry analysis, stakeholder feedback and conducting transportation practitioner focus groups. StreetLight concluded that commercialization of MEP is not feasible in the current market because users need a dynamic MEP tool that enables scenario planning. It should be able to calculate a MEP score dynamically (near instantaneous) when different inputs are changed.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Using National-Scale Data to Inform Coal Power Plant Redevelopment and Coal Community Revitalization Planning

In the United States, individual coal plants have high variation in their construction and operation. Coal plants commonly have multiple units, with different commissioning ages, operational position, and maintenance conditions – even multiple fuels. These units may be in changing states of utilization, with variation in productivity depending on economic contexts. Coal plants themselves may be temporarily offline, mothballed, retired, or decommissioned due to owner/operator portfolios or market conditions, and the current posture of the plant may be difficult to ascertain without local news sources (Tarekegne et al. 2021). Anticipated dates of plant closures are prospectively represented to regulators and to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), but may also experience uncertainty due to the engineering, environmental, economic and social complexity of closing a very large power plant. As noted in this report, closure of the first unit to the last within a single plant may span more than 20 years. Yet tracking and predicting the position of our nation’s coal fleets on a national scale is deeply important. In developing a case for federal datasets and an approach to building and curating these data, this report identified that data must have high fidelity at the plant-level to be meaningful in aggregate. Plant-scale detail is also a match for its application: national priorities in federal investment range from economic revitalization for coal plant communities to maintaining reliable electric grid operations. This document is organized into a statistical review of coal plant retirements, past and prospective, in the United States; trends in the relationship between closures and existing federal investment programs for community revitalization; and potential methods for accelerating site redevelopment through advanced geospatial analysis based on federal data.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗