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At least 469 records · Page 26

Viscosity estimates for the crust and upper mantle from patterns of lacustrine shoreline deformation in the Eastern Great Basin

The deformed shorelines of Lake Bonneville constitute a classic source of information on lithospheric elastic thickness and upper mantle viscosity. We describe and apply a new model to a recently augmented data set. New data better constrain both the complex spatio-temporal pattern of the lake load and the crustal deformation response to that load. The history of lake level fluctuations has been significantly refined and somewhat modified. This is due to both more radiocarbon dates from within the Bonneville basin and to an improved calibration of the radiocarbon timescale itself. The data which constrain the crustal deformation pattern consist of ages and shoreline elevations from several hundred points which sample three major levels of Lake Bonneville and corresponding elevations from the high stands of three smaller lakes situated to the west of Lake Bonneville. The geometry of the Earth model incorporates an arbitrary number of layers overlying a half-space, and the rheology of each level can accommodate an arbitrary number of Maxwell viscoelastic elements in parallel. The inverse modeling comprises three complementary approaches: for the simplest configurations, we performed a direct search of the parameter space and delineated the irregular boundary of the subspace of acceptable models. For more complex configurations, we constrained the elastic parameters to their seismically determined values and then solved for viscosity versus depth profiles by either expressing the log(viscosity) versus log(depth) profile as a series of specially constructed orhtogonal polynomials, or by allowing each of 8-10 layers (plus the half-space) to have an independently determined viscosity. We found that the data do not strongly support (nor can they conclusively exclude) a more complex rheology than simple Maxwell viscoelasticity. The orthogonal polynomial solution exhibits an essentially monotonic decrease in viscosity with depth.

Bills, Bruce G.↗

Dose-Response for Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy in Early-Stage Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer

Purpose: To compare the efficacy of three lung stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) regimens in a large institutional cohort. Methods: Between 2004 and 2009, 130 patients underwent definitive lung cancer SBRT to a single lesion at the Mallinckrodt Institute of Radiology. We delivered 18 Gy Multiplication-Sign 3 fractions for peripheral tumors (n = 111) and either 9 Gy Multiplication-Sign 5 fractions (n = 8) or 10 Gy Multiplication-Sign 5 fractions (n = 11) for tumors that were central or near critical structures. Univariate and multivariate analysis of prognostic factors was performed using the Cox proportional hazard model. Results: Median follow-up was 11, 16, and 13 months for the 9 Gy Multiplication-Sign 5, 10 Gy Multiplication-Sign 5, and 18 Gy Multiplication-Sign 3 groups, respectively. Local control statistics for Years 1 and 2 were, respectively, 75% and 50% for 9 Gy Multiplication-Sign 5, 100% and 100% for 10 Gy Multiplication-Sign 5, and 99% and 91% for 18 Gy Multiplication-Sign 3. Median overall survival was 14 months, not reached, and 34 months for the 9 Gy Multiplication-Sign 5, 10 Gy Multiplication-Sign 5, and 18 Gy Multiplication-Sign 3 treatments, respectively. No difference in local control or overall survival was found between the 10 Gy Multiplication-Sign 5 and 18 Gy Multiplication-Sign 3 groups on log-rank test, but both groups had improved local control and overall survival compared with 9 Gy Multiplication-Sign 5. Treatment with 9 Gy Multiplication-Sign 5 was the only independent prognostic factor for reduced local control on multivariate analysis, and increasing age, increasing tumor volume, and poor performance status predicted independently for reduced overall survival. Conclusion: Treatment regimens of 10 Gy Multiplication-Sign 5 and 18 Gy Multiplication-Sign 3 seem to be efficacious for lung cancer SBRT and provide superior local control and overall survival compared with 9 Gy Multiplication-Sign 5.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Lab-Scale Study of the Calcium Carbonate Dissolution and Deposition by Marine Cyanobacterium Phormidium subcapitatum

Suggestions that calcification in marine organisms changes in response to global variations in seawater chemistry continue to be advanced (Wilkinson, 1979; Degens et al. 1985; Kazmierczak et al. 1986; R. Riding 1992). However, the effect of [Na+] on calcification in marine cyanobacteria has not been discussed in detail although [Na+] fluctuations reflect both temperature and sea-level fluctuations. The goal of these lab-scale studies therefore was to study the effect of environmental pH and [Na+] on CaCO3 deposition and dissolution by marine cyanobacterium Phormidium subcapitatum. Marine cyanobacterium P. subcapitatum has been cultivated in ASN-III medium. [Ca2+] fluctuations were monitored with Ca(2+) probe. Na(+) concentrations were determined by the initial solution chemistry. It was found that the balance between CaCO3 dissolution and precipitation induced by P. subcapitatum grown in neutral ASN III medium is very close to zero. No CaCO3 precipitation induced by cyanobacterial growth occurred. Growth of P. subcapitatum in alkaline ASN III medium, however, was accompanied by significant oscillations in free Ca(2+) concentration within a Na(+) concentration range of 50-400 mM. Calcium carbonate precipitation occurred during the log phase of P. subcapitatum growth while carbonate dissolution was typical for the stationary phase of P. subcapitatum growth. The highest CaCO3 deposition was observed in the range of Na(+) concentrations between 200-400 mM. Alkaline pH also induced the clamping of P. subcapitatum filaments, which appeared to have a strong affinity to envelop particles of chemically deposited CaCO3 followed by enlargement of those particles size. EDS analysis revealed the presence of Mg-rich carbonate (or magnesium calcite) in the solution containing 10-100 mM Na(+); calcite in the solution containing 200 mM Na(+); and aragonite in the solution containing with 400 mM Na(+). Typical present-day seawater contains xxmM Na(+). Early (Archean) seawater was likely less saline. The division of marine cyanobacterium P. subcapitatum is associated with periodic deposition and dissolution of CaCO3, the rhythms and intensity of which are dependent on concentrations of both OH(-) and Na(+). Thus, the role of present-day marine cyanobacteria in the global carbonate cycle might be reduced to aggregation and recrystallization of available CaCO3 particles in marine water rather than long-term precipitation and accumulation of CaCO3 deposits. For lower Na(+) concentrations, precipitation of carbonates by cyanobacteria would be even less significant. These results suggest that the lack of calcified cyanobacteria in stromatalite-bearing Precambrian sequences can be explained not only by high dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations but also by lower salinity, as well as possible lower pH compared to present-day oceans.

Karakis, S. G.↗

EVIDENCE OF VERY LOW METALLICITY AND HIGH IONIZATION STATE IN A STRONGLY LENSED, STAR-FORMING DWARF GALAXY AT z = 3.417

We investigate the gas-phase metallicity and Lyman continuum (LyC) escape fraction of a strongly gravitationally lensed, extreme emission-line galaxy at z = 3.417, J1000+0221S, recently discovered by the CANDELS team. We derive ionization- and metallicity-sensitive emission-line ratios from H+K band Large Binocular Telescope (LBT)/LUCI medium resolution spectroscopy. J1000+0221S shows high ionization conditions, as evidenced by its enhanced [O III]/[O II] and [O III]/Hβ ratios. Strong-line methods based on the available line ratios suggest that J1000+0221S is an extremely metal-poor galaxy, with a metallicity of 12+log (O/H) < 7.44 (Z < 0.05 Z {sub ☉}), placing it among the most metal-poor star-forming galaxies at z ≳ 3 discovered so far. In combination with its low stellar mass (2 × 10{sup 8} M {sub ☉}) and high star formation rate (5 M {sub ☉} yr{sup –1}), the metallicity of J1000+0221S is consistent with the extrapolation of the mass-metallicity relation traced by Lyman-break galaxies at z ≳ 3 to low masses, but it is 0.55 dex lower than predicted by the fundamental metallicity relation at z ≲ 2.5. These observations suggest a rapidly growing galaxy, possibly fed by massive accretion of pristine gas. Additionally, deep LBT/LBC photometry in the UGR bands are used to derive a limit to the LyC escape fraction, thus allowing us to explore for the first time the regime of sub-L* galaxies at z > 3. We find a 1σ upper limit to the escape fraction of 23%, which adds a new observational constraint to recent theoretical models predicting that sub-L* galaxies at high-z have high escape fractions and thus are the responsible for the reionization of the universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Reduction in Tumor Volume by Cone Beam Computed Tomography Predicts Overall Survival in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Treated With Chemoradiation Therapy

Purpose: We sought to evaluate whether tumor response using cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) performed as part of the routine care during chemoradiation therapy (CRT) could forecast the outcome of unresectable, locally advanced, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods and Materials: We manually delineated primary tumor volumes (TV) of patients with NSCLC who were treated with radical CRT on days 1, 8, 15, 22, 29, 36, and 43 on CBCTs obtained as part of the standard radiation treatment course. Percentage reductions in TV were calculated and then correlated to survival and pattern of recurrence using Cox proportional hazard models. Clinical information including histologic subtype was also considered in the study of such associations. Results: We evaluated 38 patients with a median follow-up time of 23.4 months. The median TV reduction was 39.3% (range, 7.3%-69.3%) from day 1 (D1) to day 43 (D43) CBCTs. Overall survival was associated with TV reduction from D1 to D43 (hazard ratio [HR] 0.557, 95% CI 0.39-0.79, P=.0009). For every 10% decrease in TV from D1 to D43, the risk of death decreased by 44.3%. For patients whose TV decreased ≥39.3 or <39.3%, log-rank test demonstrated a separation in survival (P=.02), with median survivals of 31 months versus 10 months, respectively. Neither local recurrence (HR 0.791, 95% CI 0.51-1.23, P=.29), nor distant recurrence (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.57-1.08, P=.137) correlated with TV decrease from D1 to D43. Histologic subtype showed no impact on our findings. Conclusions: TV reduction as determined by CBCT during CRT as part of routine care predicts post-CRT survival. Such knowledge may justify intensification of RT or application of additional therapies. Assessment of genomic characteristics of these tumors may permit a better understanding of behavior or prediction of therapeutic outcomes.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

SOHO Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) Mission Operations and Data Analysis

The scientific goal of UVCS is to obtain detailed empirical descriptions of the extended solar corona as it evolves over the solar cycle and to use these descriptions to identify and understand the physical processes responsible for coronal heating, solar wind acceleration, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and the phenomena that establish the plasma properties of the solar wind as measured by "in situ" solar wind instruments. This report covers the period from 15 February 2003 to 14 April 2004. During that time, UVCS observations have consisted of three types: 1) standard synoptic observations comprising, primarily, the H I Lyalpha line profile and the 0 VI 103.2 and 103.7 nm intensity over a range of heights from 1.5 to about 3.0 solar radii and covering 360 degrees about the Sun, 2) sit and stare observations for major flare watches, and 3) special observations designed by the UVCS Lead Observer of the Week for a specific scientific purpose. The special observations are often coordinated with those of other space-based and ground-based instruments and they often are part of SOHO joint observation programs and campaigns. Lead observers have included UVCS Co-Investigators, scientists from the solar physics community and several graduate and undergraduate level students. UVCS has continued to achieve its purpose of using powerful spectroscopic diagnostic techniques to obtain a much more detailed description of coronal structures and dynamic phenomena than existed before the SOHO mission. The new descriptions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and coronal structures from UVCS have inspired a large number of theoretical studies aimed at identifying the physical processes responsible for CMEs and solar wind acceleration in coronal holes and streamers. UVCS has proven to be a very stable instrument. Stellar observations have demonstrated its radiometric stability. UVCS has not required any flight software modifications and all mechanisms are operational. The UVCS 0 VI Channel with its redundant optical path for wavelengths near H I Lyalpha is capable of observing the entire UVCS wavelength range. The regions of the detector currently being used require different grating angles for direct OVI observations and redundant path H I Lyalpha observations, and so those can no longer be observed simultaneously. Since December 1998, the 0 VI Channel has been used for all UVCS observations. Although the H I Lyalpha Channel and detector are still operational, increases in the dark count up to about 5x10(exp 4) counts/sec/pixel and an increase in high voltage current to within a factor of two of the maximum used in the laboratory before flight led to the decision to not use that detector after 1998. The visible light channel functioned nominally during the reporting period. UVCS data, data analysis software, calibration files and the mission log are available from the SOHO archive and SAO. All UVCS data are now available within three months of the observations to scientists and the general public via the SOHO Data Archive and SAO. UVCS has resulted in 33 scientific papers in 2003. There were numerous presentations at scientific meetings. UVCS Education and Public Outreach activities involved nine members of the UVCS team. During the reporting period, there were over a dozen events directed at students and teachers, museum audiences, and public audiences via the mass media, internet and educational literature.

Gurman, Joseph↗

Estimating Price Elasticity using Market-Level Appliance Data

This report provides and update to and expansion upon our 2008 LBNL report “An Analysis of the Price Elasticity of Demand for Appliances,” in which we estimated an average relative price elasticity of -0.34 for major household appliances (Dale and Fujita 2008). Consumer responsiveness to price change is a key component of energy efficiency policy analysis; these policies influence consumer purchases through price both explicitly and implicitly. However, few studies address appliance demand elasticity in the U.S. market and public data sources are generally insufficient for rigorous estimation. Therefore, analysts have relied on a small set of outdated papers focused on limited appliance types, assuming long-term elasticities estimated for other durables (e.g., vehicles) decades ago are applicable to current and future appliance purchasing behavior. We aim to partially rectify this problem in the context of appliance efficiency standards by revisiting our previous analysis, utilizing data released over the last ten years and identifying additional estimates of durable goods price elasticities in the literature. Reviewing the literature, we find the following ranges of market-level price elasticities: -0.14 to -0.42 for appliances; -0.30 to -1.28 for automobiles; -0.47 to -2.55 for other durable goods. Brand price elasticities are substantially higher for these product groups, with most estimates -2.0 or more elastic. Using market-level shipments, sales value, and efficiency level data for 1989-2009, we run various iterations of a log-log regression model, arriving at a recommended range of short run appliance price elasticity between -0.4 and -0.5, with a default value of -0.45.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The Star Formation Main Sequence in the Hubble Space Telescope Frontier Fields

We investigate the relation between star formation rate (SFR) and stellar mass (M), i.e., the main sequence (MS) relation of star-forming galaxies, at 1.3⩽z<6 in the first four Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Frontier Fields, on the basis of rest-frame UV observations. Gravitational lensing combined with deep HST observations allows us to extend the analysis of the MS down to log M/M{sub ⊙}∼7.5 at z≲4 and log M/M{sub ⊙}∼8 at higher redshifts, a factor of ∼10 below most previous results. We perform an accurate simulation to take into account the effect of observational uncertainties and correct for the Eddington bias. This step allows us to reliably measure the MS and in particular its slope. While the normalization increases with redshift, we fit an unevolving and approximately linear slope. We nicely extend to lower masses the results of brighter surveys. Thanks to the large dynamic range in mass and by making use of the simulation, we analyzed any possible mass dependence of the dispersion around the MS. We find tentative evidence that the scatter decreases with increasing mass, suggesting a larger variety of star formation histories in low-mass galaxies. This trend agrees with theoretical predictions and is explained as either a consequence of the smaller number of progenitors of low-mass galaxies in a hierarchical scenario and/or of the efficient but intermittent stellar feedback processes in low-mass halos. Finally, we observe an increase in the SFR per unit stellar mass with redshift milder than predicted by theoretical models, implying a still incomplete understanding of the processes responsible for galaxy growth.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

STELLAR POPULATIONS FROM SPECTROSCOPY OF A LARGE SAMPLE OF QUIESCENT GALAXIES AT Z > 1: MEASURING THE CONTRIBUTION OF PROGENITOR BIAS TO EARLY SIZE GROWTH

We analyze the stellar populations of a sample of 62 massive (log M {sub *}/M {sub ☉} > 10.7) galaxies in the redshift range 1 < z < 1.6, with the main goal of investigating the role of recent quenching in the size growth of quiescent galaxies. We demonstrate that our sample is not biased toward bright, compact, or young galaxies, and thus is representative of the overall quiescent population. Our high signal-to-noise ratio Keck/LRIS spectra probe the rest-frame Balmer break region that contains important absorption line diagnostics of recent star formation activity. We obtain improved measures of the various stellar population parameters, including the star formation timescale τ, age, and dust extinction, by fitting templates jointly to both our spectroscopic and broadband photometric data. We identify which quiescent galaxies were recently quenched and backtrack their individual evolving trajectories on the UVJ color-color plane finding evidence for two distinct quenching routes. By using sizes measured in the previous paper of this series, we confirm that the largest galaxies are indeed among the youngest at a given redshift. This is consistent with some contribution to the apparent growth from recent arrivals, an effect often called progenitor bias. However, we calculate that recently quenched objects can only be responsible for about half the increase in average size of quiescent galaxies over a 1.5 Gyr period, corresponding to the redshift interval 1.25 < z < 2. The remainder of the observed size evolution arises from a genuine growth of long-standing quiescent galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Geology and in situ stress of the MH-2 borehole, Idaho, USA: Insights into western Snake River Plain structure from geothermal exploration drilling

Project HOTSPOT, the Snake River Scientific Drilling Project (International Continental Scientific Drilling Program), tested for deep geothermal resources and examined the petrology of volcanic rocks with three drillholes in the central and western Snake River Plain (western USA). The MH-2 drillhole targeted fractured crystalline and hydrothermally altered basalt in the area of the Mountain Home Air Force Base (Idaho) to a total depth of 1821 m. At 1745 m depth the drillhole encountered flowing artesian hydrothermal fluids of at least 150 °C. We integrate geological analyses of core, image log, and borehole geophysical data, and in situ stress analyses to describe the structural environment that produces permeability for artesian flow. The rocks in the lower 540 m of the drillhole consist of basalt flows as much as 30 m thick, altered basalt, and thin sedimentary horizons. The mechanical stratigraphy is defined by nine mechanical horizons that are in three ranges of rock strength on the basis of experimentally determined strength data, core logging, and geophysical log signatures. Hydrothermal alteration products and mineralization in the core are associated with three highly faulted sections; the lowermost section is associated with the zone of flowing thermal water. Shear slip indicators on faults observed in core indicate slip ranging from pure strike slip to normal failure mechanisms in the stronger horizons. The borehole breakouts indicate that the maximum horizontal stress, SH, is oriented 047° ± 7°, and drilling-induced tensile fractures indicate that SH is oriented at 67° ± 21°. The in situ stress orientations exhibit little variation over the depth of the measured interval, but the SH magnitude varies with depth, and is best explained by an oblique normal fault stress regime. The geomechanical model indicates that if pore pressures at depth are elevated above the normal hydrostatic gradient, as observed here, the system has the potential to deform by mixed normal and strike-slip failure. Our observations and interpretations suggest that the MH-2 borehole was drilled into oblique normal faults that intersect a buried 300°-trending fault block masked by the basaltic volcanic complex. These data indicate that the transition from the central to western Snake River Plain is characterized by complex structures developed in response to a transitional stress state related to Snake River Plain and western Basin and Range stress regimes. Furthermore, the western Basin and Range stress and tectonic regime may extend from northern Nevada into western Idaho and may enhance the potential for geothermal resources by creating interconnected fracture and fault-related permeability at depth.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

P and S wave responses of bacterial biopolymer formation in unconsolidated porous media

This study investigated the P and S wave responses and permeability reduction during bacterial biopolymer formation in unconsolidated porous media. Column experiments with fine sands, where the model bacteria Leuconostoc mesenteroides were stimulated to produce insoluble biopolymer, were conducted while monitoring changes in permeability and P and S wave responses. The bacterial biopolymer reduced the permeability by more than 1 order of magnitude, occupying ~10% pore volume after 38 days of growth. This substantial reduction was attributed to the bacterial biopolymer with complex internal structures accumulated at pore throats. S wave velocity (V S ) increased by more than ~50% during biopolymer accumulation; this indicated that the bacterial biopolymer caused a certain level of stiffening effect on shear modulus of the unconsolidated sediment matrix at low confining stress conditions. Whereas replacing pore water by insoluble biopolymer was observed to cause minimal changes in P wave velocity (VP) due to the low elastic moduli of insoluble biopolymer. The spectral ratio analyses revealed that the biopolymer formation caused a ~50-80% increase in P wave attenuation (1/Q P ) at the both ultrasonic and subultrasonic frequency ranges, at hundreds of kHz and tens of kHz, respectively, and a ~50-60% increase in S wave attenuation (1/Q S ) in the frequency band of several kHz. Our results reveal that in situ biopolymer formation and the resulting permeability reduction can be effectively monitored by using P and S wave attenuation in the ultrasonic and subultrasonic frequency ranges. Finally, this suggests that field monitoring using seismic logging techniques, including time-lapse dipole sonic logging, may be possible.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

On the temperature and velocity through the photosphere of a sunspot penumbra

We investigate the structure in depth of a sunspot penumbra by means of the inversion code of the radiative transfer equation proposed by Ruiz Cobo & del Toro Iniesta (1992), applied to a set of filtergrams of a sunspot, scanning the Fe I line at 5576.1 A, with a sampling interval of 30 mA, from -120 to 120 mA from line center (data previously analyzed by Title et al. 1993). The temperature structure of this penumbra is obtained for each of the 801 pixels selected (0.32 sec x 0.32 sec). On the average, the temperatures seem to decrease as we move inward, but the differences are of the order of the rms values (approximately equal 100-200 K) at a given distance to sunspot center. The outer parts of the penumbra have also a bigger curvature in the T versus log tau(sub 5) relation than the inner parts. We realize, however, that these differences might be influenced by possible stray light effects. Compared to the quiet Sun, penumbral temperatures are cooler at deep layers and hotter at high layers. A mean penumbral model atmosphere is presented. The asymmetries observed in the intensity profile (the line is magnetically insensitive) are deduced to be produced by strong gradients of the line-of-sight velocity that sharply vary spatially along slices of almost constant distance to sunspot center. These variations suggest that such gradients are not only needed to explain the broadband circular polarization observed in sunspots (see Sanchez Almeida & Lites 1992) but are a main characteristic of the fine-scale penumbra. The results are compatible with an Evershed flow present everywhere, but its gradient with depth turns out to vary so that the flow seems to be mainly concentrated in some penumbral fibrils when studied through Dopplergrams. Finally, as by-products of this study, we put constraints to the practical usefulness of the Eddington-Barbier relation, and we explain the values of the Fourier Dopplergrams to be carrying information of layers around the centroid of the generalized response function of Dopplergrams to velocity fluctuations.

Del Toro Iniesta, J. C.↗

Productivity and cost of energy chipping with non-integrated harvesting systems in the Coastal Plain of the US south

Research from the 1980s–2010s suggested that integrated harvesting systems that harvest conventional products (e.g., sawtimber, pulpwood) and energy chips simultaneously were the most effective solution to produce energy chips in the US South. Alternatives, such as biomass-only systems, have important advantages in forest stands with low volumes of merchantable timber. The goal of this study was to estimate the productivity and cost of producing energy chips using non-integrated systems. Innovative chipping contractors using non-integrated systems were identified through contacts with procurement foresters responsible for purchasing energy chips. Elemental time-and-motion studies were conducted to estimate harvesting productivity on five operations, including one clearcut harvest and four first thinnings in overstocked stands. The hourly cost of equipment was estimated using the machine rate method. Cost per tonne was estimated by combining hourly productivity and hourly costs in a modified version of the Auburn Harvesting Analyzer. System productivity averaged 37 tonnes per scheduled machine hour (smh) and cut-and-haul costs averaged $33.86 t −1 (USD), which was comparable to previous estimates from integrated systems. In conclusion, this study suggests there are viable alternatives to integrated harvesting systems to produce energy chips, especially in stands with low volumes of merchantable timber.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Wellbore Stability and Mud Loss Management in Geothermal Drilling: Optimizing Mud Weight to Mitigate Tensile Wellbore Fracturing at The Geysers, California

As part of a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office-funded initiative, Geysers Power Company, LLC, a subsidiary of Calpine Corporation, has been working to enhance drilling performance at the world’s largest geothermal field, The Geysers, in northern California. In a recent drilling operation of the GDC-36 well, excessive mud losses were encountered, initially addressed through repeated but largely ineffective cement plugging. Ultimately, the most effective strategy was to drill blind through the loss zones, made feasible by the high rate of penetration (ROP) achieved with PDC bits, allowing significant progress before the mud tanks were depleted and water-sensitive argillic formation layers could collapse. In response to these challenges, the project team explored alternative methods to minimize downtime and risks associated with cement plugging and continuous mud loss and to contemplate the driving mechanisms for the losses. Wellbore imaging using Formation MicroImager (FMI) and Ultrasonic Borehole Imager (UBI) tools revealed longitudinal tensile fractures, which were attributed to mud weights exceeding the minimum circumferential stress resulting from the native stress field and formation pressure. This study examines the mud losses encountered and leverages wellbore imaging data to understand the mechanisms behind mud induced tensile fracturing in specific rock facies. Understanding fracture behavior across different lithologies is crucial, as fractures within the reservoir can enhance steam migration throughout the system. The reservoir at The Geysers lies within the Mesozoic Franciscan Assemblage, a tectonic mélange formed by subduction. It consists of metamorphosed turbidite sandstone (greywacke) and mudstone (argillite), oceanic upper crust (including greenstone and chert), and serpentinized ultramafic rocks - each exhibiting distinct geomechanical fracturing properties. The structural fabric of the Franciscan Assemblage was shaped by low-angle Mesozoic thrust faulting and later overprinted by sub-vertical strike-slip structures related to the Pacific-North American plate boundary. A wellbore stability model was developed using core measurements and logs to simulate fracturing scenarios during drilling under varying stress conditions. These simulations guided the development of an optimized mud weight management strategy that should enable adaptive adjustments during drilling, reducing the likelihood of tensile fracturing and mud losses, ultimately improving operational efficiency.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Gas hydrate quantification in Walker Ridge block 313, Gulf of Mexico, from full-waveform inversion of ocean-bottom seismic data

The Gulf of Mexico (GOM) Joint Industry Project Leg 2 logging-while-drilling data in Walker Ridge lease block 313 (WR313) in the GOM detected gas hydrate in coarse- and fine-grained sediments at sites WR313-G and WR313-H. The coarse-grained units are thin ([Formula: see text]) and highly saturated, whereas the fine-grained unit is thick (approximately 200 m) with low saturation and fracture-filling gas hydrate. Unlike its coarse-grained counterpart, the seismic character of the fine-grained unit does not clearly indicate the presence of gas hydrate, which would likely have remained undiscovered in the absence of drilling. In this paper, through frequency-domain acoustic full-waveform inversion (FWI) of ocean-bottom seismometer data along a 2D multichannel seismic transect near sites WR313-G and WR313-H, we detect and quantify gas hydrate in the fine-grained unit. Key results are as follows: First, the base of the gas hydrate stability zone, which is not obvious in the reflection profile, can be discerned in the FWI results. Second, the gas hydrate in the fine-grained unit is mainly confined to the area between two sets of opposite-dipping normal faults implying that the fault architecture may be partially responsible for this gas hydrate accumulation and distribution.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Shoulder Postures in EVA Training in Reduced Gravity Analogues

Shoulder Postures in EVA Training in Reduced Gravity Analogues K. Guhl1, L. Vu2, H. Kim3, S. Rajulu4 1KBR Inc., Houston, TX, 2Aegis Aerospace Inc., Houston, TX, 3Leidos Innovations, Houston, TX, 4NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX. During extravehicular activities (EVAs) and EVA training in both the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) and at the Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS), crewmembers perform a variety of hand-intensive tasks with frequent arm/shoulder repositioning while wearing a pressurized spacesuit. As a result, crewmembers may experience ergonomic stressors such as awkward shoulder postures. The ergonomic shoulder risk is also compounded by limited or restricted shoulder mobility of the spacesuit, extreme work positions such as overhead tasks, and tasks with heavy tools and repetitive motions. Prolonged or frequent shoulder elevation and overhead work, in particular, can lead to excessive stresses and musculoskeletal injuries of the shoulder joints. Future EVA missions, specifically lunar surface EVAs, will also be longer in duration and thus increase the exposure to awkward shoulder postures. In this study, we aimed to assess the ergonomic risk of awkward shoulder postures in simulated lunar surface EVAs by quantifying when and how long the arms are raised above the chest level. We assessed video recordings of pilot lunar EVA simulations (3 lunar trials each in the NBL and at ARGOS and 2 microgravity EVA trials in the NBL). These runs consisted of both training and engineering test objectives. Actual demands for shoulder use varied for different EVA types and analogues, but many EVA runs have common tasks and require similar motion components. A video observation and event logging software was used to document the duration and occurrence of the subject’s arms being raised throughout the video recordings of each EVA run. An arm raised instance was classified as the arm being at 90 degrees or above with relation to gravity for lunar EVA training events and with relation to the body for microgravity EVA training events. Such events included EVA hardware maintenance or heavy geology sampling tool operations. Events where the arm load was partially supported by external objects, like climbing a ladder or leaning against a surface were separately identified and excluded. Statistical analysis was performed to summarize the timing, frequency, and durations of the arm raise events and compared across the different EVA tasks and analogue types. Preliminary observations indicated that the total duration and number of arm raised instances were surprisingly smaller for lunar surface EVA training as compared to microgravity EVA training. The observed difference may be attributed to differing task demands and unique environmental characteristics found in lunar EVAs in comparison to microgravity EVAs. A detailed statistical analysis will be performed between lunar surface EVA training events and microgravity EVA training events in the final submission. Overall, this analysis is expected to provide insight into how ergonomic recommendations can be refined for lunar EVA training with pressurized suits. It may also inform task design and influence suit padding design to better protect crewmembers during future lunar training.

Kaitlyn Lea Guhl↗

NORTH DAKOTA CARBONSAFE PHASE III: SITE CHARACTERIZATION AND PERMITTING OF GEOLOGIC STORAGE OF CARBON DIOXIDE

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with Minnkota Power Cooperative Inc. (Minnkota), SLB, and Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (CMG), supported wide-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) Initiative Phase III. This phase included the acquisition, analysis, and development of information to fully characterize two storage complexes to demonstrate viable storage resources for commercial volumes of CO2 (defined by DOE as a minimum of 50 million tonnes [MMt] of CO2 within a 30-year period) (National Energy Technology Laboratory, 2024). Phase III also involved the preparation, submission, and approval of North Dakota underground injection control (UIC) Class VI storage facility permits (SFPs)—required precursors to applications for Class VI injection well permits. The presumed viability of commercial-scale CCS, situated adjacent to Minnkota’s Milton R. Young Station (MRYS), is validated by Minnkota’s continued pursuit of Project Tundra—an initiative to build the world’s largest lignite-based CCS project in central North Dakota (www.projecttundrand.com). Project Tundra comprises two scopes of work, Tundra Capture (installation of postcombustion CO2 capture at MRYS) and Tundra SGS (secure geologic storage). The efforts of North Dakota CarbonSAFE Phase III, Site Characterization and Permitting, supported Tundra SGS. Extensive site-specific characterization activities included a successful multimeasurement geophysical approach and drilling a stratigraphic test well (J-ROC 1, subsequently renamed Liberty-1) adjacent to MRYS. Core collection and analyses, downhole testing and fluid sampling, and geophysical logging were performed on J-ROC 1 and on a nearby stratigraphic test well (known as J-LOC 1), which was drilled, cored, and tested under a complementary project funded by the North Dakota Lignite Research Program. The injection tests performed on J-LOC 1 positively impacted the CarbonSAFE project, resulting in fewer proposed injection wells and significant construction, operations, and monitoring cost savings. The characterization data collected and analyses performed were integrated into geologic models, and successive numerical simulations were run to determine CO2 plume extent and subsurface pressure buildup associated with the planned CO2 injection rate of nearly 4 MMt per year. The latter doubles the CarbonSAFE Initiative goal with an estimated 100 MMt of CO2 stored in 20 years. Application of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) method for estimating the Class VI Rule area of review (AOR) to the overpressurized Broom Creek Formation inspired an alternative method of calculation, called risk-based AOR delineation. This peer-reviewed method was applied for the first time during the storage facility-permitting process. The two SFP applications submitted in 2021 successfully resulted in North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) orders in 2022 authorizing the creation of the storage facility areas and amalgamation of pore space as well as establishing financial responsibility requirements. After approval of the SFPs, Minnkota filed in 2022 applications for permits to reenter the J-ROC 1 well and to drill two new wells—all with the intended purpose to become Class VI injection wells. To establish eligibility under the Internal Revenue Code for Section 45Q tax incentives, a monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) plan was prepared and submitted by Minnkota to EPA in 2022, resulting in the first such plan approved in North Dakota. Also in 2022, under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), Minnkota prepared and submitted an environmental information volume (EIV) describing the proposed CCS project and associated potential environmental impacts. Based on the EIV, DOE determined that the proposed construction project required an environmental assessment, and Minnkota submitted the first draft in 2023 and a revised draft in 2024. Both submissions were followed by a public comment period. Subsequently, DOE issued a finding of no significant impact (FONSI) on September 13, 2024. A successful outreach program, strongly based in the production, presentation, and dissemination of informational material, fostered an environment to aid stakeholders in making informed decisions regarding the planned project. Opportunities for public input were provided at various steps along the way, including at county planning and zoning meetings, before and during the SFP administrative hearing, and during environmental assessment public comment periods. In addition, land/pore space owners and mineral owners had various points of contact, including granting access rights, securing pore space leasing, and mineral owner notifications. Based upon the successful storage facility permitting issued by NDIC, approval of the MRV plan by EPA, and receipt of a FONSI under the NEPA, Minnkota is continuing its pursuit of Project Tundra. In December 2023, the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations under its Carbon Capture Demonstrations Projects Program announced funding for the capture system (Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations, 2023) and a proposal for CarbonSAFE Phase IV: Construction funding was submitted in March 2024 for the storage project. A go/no-go decision to proceed with construction and operations in the Broom Creek Formation is anticipated in 2024. References National Energy Technology Laboratory, CarbonSafe Initiative, https://netl.doe.gov/carbon-management/carbon-storage/carbonsafe (accessed August 2024). Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations, 2023, OCED selects three projects in CA, ND, and TX to reduce harmful carbon pollution, create new economic opportunities, and advance carbon reducing technologies, December, www.energy.gov/oced/articles/oced-selects-three-projects-ca-nd-and-tx-reduce-harmful-carbon-pollution-create-new (accessed August 2024).

Peck, Wesley↗

Modeling HCV cure after an ultra-short duration of therapy with direct acting agents

In cases of sustained-virological response (SVR or cure) after an ultra-short duration (≤ 27 days) of direct-acting antiviral (DAA)-based therapy, despite HCV being detected at end of treatment (EOT), have been reported. Established HCV mathematical models that predict the treatment duration required to achieve cure do not take into account the possibility that the infectivity of virus produced during treatment might be reduced. The aim of this study was to develop a new mathematical model that considers the fundamental and critical concept that HCV RNA in serum represents both infectious virus (V i ) and non-infectious virus (V ni ) in order to explain the observation of cure with ultrashort DAA therapy. Established HCV models were compared to the new mathematical model to retrospectively explain cure in 2 patients who achieved cure after 24 or 27 days of paritaprevir, ombitasvir, dasabuvir, ritonavir and ribavirin or sofosbuvir plus ribavirin, respectively. Fitting established models with measured longitudinal HCV viral loads indicated that in both cases, cure would not have been expected without an additional 3–6 weeks of therapy after the actual EOT. In contrast, the new model fits the observed outcome by considering that in addition to blocking V i and V ni production (ε~0.998), these DAA + ribavirin treatments further enhanced the ratio of V ni to V i , thus increasing the log (V ni /V i ) from 1 at pretreatment to 6 by EOT, which led to <1 infectious-virus particle in the extracellular body fluid (i.e., cure) prior to EOT. This new model can explain cure after short duration of DAA + ribavirin therapy by suggesting that a minimum 6-fold increase of log (V ni /V i ) results from drug-induced enhancement of the V ni /V i .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗