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DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of ZPPR-15 experimental data for VTR software validation

As part of the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) program, extensive validation work is being performed to demonstrate the fidelity of the Argonne Reactor Code (ARC) software package presently used for the core design studies. It is anticipated that this software will be also used for initial operations although additional software may be introduced at a later time to supplement or replace some components. The validation work was focused on accumulating reactor models that are consistent with the VTR and thus can be used to validate the accuracy of predictions made by the software used to design and operate the VTR. The U.S. does not have any active experimental facilities that can neutronically mockup the VTR core design. However, in the past, the U.S. had extensive experimental facilities for fast reactor neutronics. In that regard, the ZPPR-15 experiments carried out at ANL during the 1980s work best because the fuel form is closest to the VTR design, there is a considerable amount of processed data available for use, and existing staff are already familiar with the experimental machine and measurements. Because of previous collaborative work, many of the ZPPR-15 loadings of interest have already been processed into MCNP and preliminary ARC models, and a full uncertainty quantification has already been completed for many of the ZPPR-15 measurements. This manuscript covers the recent analysis work on the ZPPR-15 experiments and compares it with the experimental results. With respect to the ARC software components, this manuscript focuses on validation of the MC 2 , DIF3D and GAMSOR using the ZPPR-15 experimental data.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Scalable probabilistic estimates of electric vehicle charging given observed driver behavior

To prepare for rapid growth in global electric vehicle adoption, grid and policy planners depend on detailed forecasts of future charging demand. In this paper we propose a novel holistic, scalable, probabilistic framework to produce large-scale estimates of electric vehicle charging load for long-term planning that capture real drivers’ charging patterns. Our framework captures the uncertainty and stochasticity in charging demand by taking a graphical modeling approach. It has three core elements: driver groups, charging segment choices, and charging session time and energy requirements. The framework uses hierarchical clustering to group drivers by their charging histories, capturing their heterogeneous behaviors and preferences across different segments or types of charging. The framework uses probabilistic mixture models for each driver group’s sessions to identify the unique charging behaviors observed within each segment. We illustrate its application with a large data set from California, profiling the charging patterns and unique driver clusters it identifies. Using the model knobs representing drivers’ battery capacities, behavior, and segment access we present scenarios for California’s charging demand in 2030 with 8 million passenger electric vehicles. Peak charging demand ranged from 3.3 to 8.7 GW across scenarios. Furthermore, each was calculated in under 45 s on a laptop computer.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying Solar PV Variability at Multiple Timescales for Power Systems Studies: Preprint

Increasing penetration of solar photovoltaics (PV) has concerned power system operators about their ability to balance load and generation over multiple timescales and maintain acceptable frequency profile because of the variability and uncertainty associated with solar PV. This paper focuses on developing metrics to quantify solar PV variability at multiple temporal scales ranging from seconds to an hour to help power system operators and planners better understand and account for solar PV variability under high solar PV penetration. Fourier coefficients of solar irradiation spectrum and average size of solar irradiation ramps over a day are the two metrics that are used to quantity the variability. It is shown that by using the two metrics the days with highest and lowest solar irradiation variability can be identified, which is useful information for operations planning or long-term power system planning studies. The key findings of the paper are (i) single sensor-based variability quantification can significantly exaggerate the variability of a solar PV plant, particularly at seconds to 1-min temporal resolution, (ii) at 1-minute or lower temporal resolutions, single sensor-based variability quantification of an entire plant can be fairly accurate, with the accuracy increasing as the temporal resolution reduces from 1-minute to 1-hour, (iii) at each 1-minute and lower temporal resolutions, maximum solar irradiation ramps appear to be independent of the geographical location of the sensor, and (iv) significant reduction in solar PV plant variability over a region with multiple plants is possible at all temporal scales, but more high quality, high temporal resolution data is needed to quantify the reduction with high confidence.

photovoltaics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Wake steering optimization under uncertainty

Turbines in wind power plants experience significant power losses when wakes from upstream turbines affect the energy production of downstream turbines. A promising plant-level control strategy to reduce these losses is wake steering, where upstream turbines are yawed to direct wakes away from downstream turbines. However, there are significant uncertainties in many aspects of the wake steering problem. For example, infield sensors do not give perfect information, and inflow to the plant is complex and difficult to forecast with available information, even over short time periods. Here, we formulate and solve an optimization under uncertainty (OUU) problem for determining optimal plant-level wake steering strategies in the presence of independent uncertainties in the direction, speed, turbulence intensity, and shear of the incoming wind, as well as in turbine yaw positions. The OUU wake steering strategy is first examined for a two-turbine test case to explore the impacts of different types of inflow uncertainties, and it is then demonstrated for a more realistic 11-turbine wind power plant. Of the sources of uncertainty considered, we find that wake steering strategies are most sensitive to uncertainties in the wind speed and direction. When maximizing expected power production, the OUU strategy also tends to favor smaller yaw angles, which have been shown in previous work to reduce turbine loading. Ultimately, the plant-level wake steering strategy formulated using an OUU approach yields 0.48?% more expected annual energy production for the 11-turbine wind plant than a strategy that neglects uncertainty when considering stochastic inputs. Thus, not only does the present OUU strategy produce more power in realistic conditions, but it also reduces risk by prescribing strategies that call for less extreme yaw angles.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1975

Experimental transient and permanent deformation studies of steel-sphere-impacted or impulsively-loaded aluminum beams with clamped ends

The sheet explosive loading technique (SELT) was employed to obtain elastic-plastic, large-deflection transient and/or permanent strain data on simple well-defined structural specimens and materials: initially-flat 6061-T651 aluminum beams with both ends ideally clamped via integral construction. The SELT loading technique was chosen since it is both convenient and provides forcing function information of small uncertainty. These data will be useful for evaluating pertinent structural response prediction methods. A second objective was to obtain high-quality transient-strain data for a well-defined structural/material model subjected to impact by a rigid body of known mass, impact velocity, and geometry; large-deflection, elastic-plastic transient response conditions are of primary interest. The beam with both ends clamped and a steel sphere as the impacting body were chosen. The steel sphere was launched vertically by explosive propulsion to achieve various desired impact velocities. The sphere/beam impact tests resulted in producing a wide range of structural responses and permanent deformations, including rupture of the beam from excessive structural response in two cases. The transient and permanent strain data as well as the permanent deflection data obtained are of high quality and should be useful for checking and evaluating methods for predicting the responses of simple 2-d structures to fragment (sphere) impact. Transient strain data very close to the point of impact were not obtained over as long a time as desirable because the gage(s) in that region became detached during the transient response.

Witmer, E. A.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Experimental transient and permanent deformation studies of steel-sphere-impacted or explosively-impulsed aluminum panels

The sheet explosive loading technique (SELT) was employed to obtain elastic-plastic, large deflection 3-d transient and/or permanent strain data on simple well defined structural specimens and materials: initially-flat 6061-T651 aluminum panels with all four sides ideally clamped via integral construction. The SELT loading technique was chosen since it is both convenient and provides "forcing function information" of small uncertainty. These data will be useful for evaluating pertinent 3-d structural response prediction methods.

Witmer, E. A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Comparison of magnetosonic wave and water group ion energy densities at Comet Giacobini-Zinner

Measurements of the Comet Giacobini-Zinner (GZ) are presented to determine to what extent wave-particle scattering redistributed the initial pick-up energy of the ion population. Also examined is the difference between the ion thermal energy and the energy in the magnetic fields of the waves. In spite of uncertainty of about a factor of 2 noted in the pick-up and mass-loaded regions, it is shown that less than approximately 50 percent of the pick-up energy is converted into wave magnetic energy in the inbound pick-up region.

Staines, K.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution Overview

TEMPO is now well into its implementation phase, having passed both its Key Decision Point C and the Critical Design Review (CDR) for the instrument. The CDR for the ground systems will occur in March 2016 and the CDR for the Mission component at a later date, after the host spacecraft has been selected. TEMPO is on schedule to measure atmospheric pollution for greater North America from space using ultraviolet and visible spectroscopy. TEMPO measures from Mexico City to the Canadian oil sands, and from the Atlantic to the Pacific, hourly and at high spatial resolution. TEMPO provides a tropospheric measurement suite that includes the key elements of tropospheric air pollution chemistry. Measurements are from geostationary (GEO) orbit, to capture the inherent high variability in the diurnal cycle of emissions and chemistry. The small product spatial footprint resolves pollution sources at sub-urban scale. Together, this temporal and spatial resolution improves emission inventories, monitors population exposure, and enables effective emission-control strategies. TEMPO takes advantage of a GEO host spacecraft to provide a modest cost mission that measures the spectra required to retrieve O3, NO2, SO2, H2CO, C2H2O2, H2O, aerosols, cloud parameters, and UVB radiation. TEMPO thus measures the major elements, directly or by proxy, in the tropospheric O3 chemistry cycle. Multi-spectral observations provide sensitivity to O3 in the lowermost troposphere, substantially reducing uncertainty in air quality predictions by 50 percent. TEMPO quantifies and tracks the evolution of aerosol loading. It provides near-real-time air quality products that will be made widely, publicly available. TEMPO provides much of the atmospheric measurement capability recommended for GEO-CAPE in the 2007 National Research Council Decadal Survey, Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond. Instruments from Europe (Sentinel 4) and Asia (GEMS) will form parts of a global GEO constellation for pollution monitoring later this decade, with a major focus on intercontinental pollution transport. TEMPO will launch at a prime time to be a component of this constellation.

Chance, Kelly↗

DOE OSTI2021

End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock

This presentation summarizes the items discussed during the End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Technical Advisory Group Meeting #4 on September 20, 2019.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Integrated Framework for Effective Management of Delivery Risk in Electricity Markets: From Batteries to Insurance and Beyond

Net load imbalances due to imperfect day-ahead forecasts can cause variability in real-time electricity prices and higher system operations costs. We propose a novel market product called Flexibility Options that allow participants to hedge uncertainty by buying flexibility from flexible resources. Simulations show that flexibility options can reduce total system operating costs by up to 15% and can reduce variability in market participant revenues. To better quantify the flexibility that DER aggregators can provide, we develop DER flexibility scores that account for asset flexibility and uncertainty from occupant behavior and weather. Preliminary results show that realistic sets of DERs have significant variability in flexibility and uncertainty metrics.

delivery risk↗

DOE OSTI2023

PANDEMIC: Occupancy driven predictive ventilation control to minimize energy consumption and infection risk

During the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic, governments around the world have formulated policies requiring ventilation systems to operate at a higher outdoor fresh air flow rate for a sufficient time, which has led to a sharp increase in building energy consumption. Therefore, it is necessary to identify an energy-efficient ventilation strategy to reduce the risk of infection. In this study, we developed an occupant-number-based model predictive control (OBMPC) algorithm for building ventilation systems. First, we collected the occupancy and Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system (HVAC) data from March to July 2021. Then, four different models (Auto regression moving average-based multilayer perceptron (ARMA_MLP), Recurrent neural networks (RNN), Long short-term memory networks (LSTM), and Nonhomogeneous Markov with change points detection (NH_Markov)) were used to predict the number of room occupants from 15 min to 24 h ahead with an interval output. We found that each model could predict the number of occupants with 85% accuracy using a one-person offset. Furthermore, the accuracy of 15 min of the ahead prediction could reach 95% with a one-person offset, but none of them could track abrupt changes. The occupancy prediction results were used to calculate the ventilation demand using the Wells-Riley equation, and the upper bound can maintain an infection risk lower than 2% for 93% of the day. This OBMPC model could reduce the coil load by 52.44% and shift the peak load by 3 h up to 5 kW compared with 24 × 7 h full outdoor air (OA) system when people wear masks in the space. The occupancy prediction uncertainty could cause a 9% to 26% difference in demand ventilation, a 0.3°C to 2.4°C difference in zone temperature, a 28.5% to 44.5% difference in outdoor airflow rate, and a 10.7% to 28.2% difference in coil load.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Frozen Freedom: Unleashing Grocery Store Demand Flexibility: Preprint

Grocery stores consumed approximately 3% of total electricity used by commercial buildings in the U.S. in 2018 (EIA 2018), representing a unique end-use load profile characterized by the critical use of refrigerated display cases. Exploring demand response (DR) scenarios in grocery stores presents an opportunity to enhance the efficiency and sustainability of surrounding communities. In addition, recent studies demonstrate that implementing control algorithms considering demand flexibility strategies can lead to load and peak reductions in standalone refrigerated display cases. Because small business grocery stores operate on thin margins, the energy bill cost savings DR might provide could make a positive difference toward continued operations. Still, uncertainty remains about the extent of demand flexibility potential controls could provide when coupling refrigeration with whole building operation. To enhance economic viability and grid stability, it is essential to quantify the load flexibility capability of grocery stores. Advanced controls can optimize energy consumption by responding to load shedding, shifting, and DR events, as well as daily Time-of-Use (TOU) rates without compromising food safety. Using both quantitative data and interviews with community-based organizations, we developed a full-size store model and two small store models with controlled refrigerated cases, HVAC, and lighting systems based on actual grocery store properties. Through simulations, we have assessed load flexibility strategies with varied DR events. The results highlight potential for energy and peak reduction with advanced or basic controls. However, interviews and data indicate that more support is needed to make DR strategies consistently accessible to small grocery stores.

demand flexibility↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of Aerodynamic Loads Databases for the Space Launch System Booster Separation Event

Booster separation is a mission-critical event within the orbital ascent of the Space Launch System (SLS). The complexity of the engine plume-affected, multibody, supersonic aerodynamics is compounded by the large span of the likely trajectory space. Characterization of the multiple input, multiple output system requires a combination of wind tunnel testing and computational simulation, but additional data processing is also required before the sparse, high-fidelity data can be fused into a continuous database with acceptable uncertainty quantification. This paper outlines the state of this approach as it has been applied to the most recent SLS booster separation aerodynamic loads database: that of the Artemis II launch vehicle.

Michael W Lee↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of Aerodynamic Loads Databases for the Space Launch System Booster Separation Event

Michael Lee↗

DOE OSTI2021

Burning velocities of R-32/O 2 /N 2 mixtures: Experimental measurements and development of a validated detailed chemical kinetic model

This work entails characterizing the flammability of the refrigerant R-32 (CH 2 F 2 ) by both experimental measurements and modeling. Burning velocities S u were measured using a constant-volume spherical-flame method for R-32/O2/N 2 mixtures with O 2 /N 2 ratios ranging from 21% (synthetic air) to 40%, pressures of (1 to 3) bar, and equivalence ratios $\phi$ of (0.8 to 1.3). Based on a critical assessment of available data, and extended by our own calculations, a detailed chemical kinetic model was developed and key reactions determined using reaction path and sensitivity analyses. Initiation and combustion were identified as distinct kinetic regimes and burning velocities were found to be controlled by two primary reactions: unimolecular decomposition of CH 2 F 2 → CHF + HF and the subsequent reaction, CHF + O 2 → CHFO + O, the latter reaction initiating the radical chain propagating and branching by producing O atoms. Sensitive rate constants in the kinetic model were critically adjusted within their uncertainties and current knowledge bounds to best fit the experimental burning velocities. We found that rate constants in the model could be adjusted to match a given experimental S u for specific conditions (O 2 loading, P, T, $\phi$). This, however, then fixes predicted burning velocities for other all conditions within (3 to 4)% if physically realistic rate parameters are maintained. Thus, the entire set of experimental data is fit, not just to particular conditions. Relative random uncertainties in the experimental Su measurements were (4 to 6)%, but assumptions made for thermal radiation lost by the burned gas in the spherical-flame experiments add an additional systematic uncertainty. Systematic differences between the limiting cases of adiabatic (no thermal radiation lost) and optically-thin (all thermal radiation lost) varied significantly with conditions and ranged from (4 to 30)% at high to low velocities, respectively, translating into uncertainties of (2 to 15)% considering the average of two limiting cases. Comparison of experimental and kinetically modeled Su values suggests that the burned gas tends towards the optically-thin limit at the lowest pressures and fuel loadings and toward the adiabatic limit at the highest pressures and loadings. We tested and found support for this conclusion with a detailed analysis as a function of all the conditions (T, P, % O 2 , $\phi$). This behavior appears to transition from optically-thin to adiabatic as the density of the initial fuel increases, which results in increased CO 2 in the burned gas and thus increased absorption of the thermal radiation (consistent with the Beer-Lambert Law). The validated detailed model based on evaluated kinetics is shown to accurately predict burning velocities for R-32 O 2 /N 2 mixtures over a wide range of conditions and provides a reliable basis for extrapolation to other conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1994

Probabilistic Simulation of the Human Factor in Structural Reliability

The formal approach described herein computationally simulates the probable ranges of uncertainties for the human factor in probabilistic assessments of structural reliability. Human factors such as marital status, professional status, home life, job satisfaction, work load, and health are studied by using a multifactor interaction equation (MFIE) model to demonstrate the approach. Parametric studies in conjunction with judgment are used to select reasonable values for the participating factors (primitive variables). Subsequently performed probabilistic sensitivity studies assess the suitability of the MFIE as well as the validity of the whole approach. Results show that uncertainties range from 5 to 30 percent for the most optimistic case, assuming 100 percent for no error (perfect performance).

Chamis, Christos C.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Probabilistic Design and Analysis Framework

PRODAF is a software package designed to aid analysts and designers in conducting probabilistic analysis of components and systems. PRODAF can integrate multiple analysis programs to ease the tedious process of conducting a complex analysis process that requires the use of multiple software packages. The work uses a commercial finite element analysis (FEA) program with modules from NESSUS to conduct a probabilistic analysis of a hypothetical turbine blade, disk, and shaft model. PRODAF applies the response surface method, at the component level, and extrapolates the component-level responses to the system level. Hypothetical components of a gas turbine engine are first deterministically modeled using FEA. Variations in selected geometrical dimensions and loading conditions are analyzed to determine the effects of the stress state within each component. Geometric variations include the cord length and height for the blade, inner radius, outer radius, and thickness, which are varied for the disk. Probabilistic analysis is carried out using developing software packages like System Uncertainty Analysis (SUA) and PRODAF. PRODAF was used with a commercial deterministic FEA program in conjunction with modules from the probabilistic analysis program, NESTEM, to perturb loads and geometries to provide a reliability and sensitivity analysis. PRODAF simplified the handling of data among the various programs involved, and will work with many commercial and opensource deterministic programs, probabilistic programs, or modules.

Strack, William C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Rapid 235 U/ 238 U determination by matrix assisted ionization–time-of-flight mass spectrometry

Matrix-assisted ionization (MAI) of inorganic analytes is a nascent research domain that holds promise for rapid, potentially facility-deployable analytical applications. Here, we present results of MAI uranium isotopic analysis ( 235 U/ 238 U) obtained on the timescale of minutes utilizing simple sample preparation and an ambient ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometer (ToF MS). Experimental MAI-ToF MS characterization of uranium Certified Reference Materials (CRMs) was used to establish method calibration and validate quantitative 235 U/ 238 U determination spanning depleted, natural, and low-enriched uranium isotopic compositions. Secondary standard analyses with total uranium mass loadings of 5–500 ng per analysis yield accurate calibrated 235 U/ 238 U results and relative uncertainties of 4.7–17.2% (approx. ±95% confidence level), with weighted-mean uncertainties approaching 1.5%. This method permits accurate determination of uranium isotopic composition in a sample with uranium content as low as 200 pg for equal atom 235 U: 238 U. Instrument detection limits constrain the minimum uranium mass required to identify the presence of highly enriched uranium (HEU ≥20% 235 U) as only 500 pg using the method presented here. MAI-ToF MS quantitation of relatively extreme isotope ratios ( 235 U/ 238 U ≤ 0.01) is limited by detection of minor 235 U (LoD 100 pg 235 U/analysis ≈ 10 ng total U/analysis), and subsequent method optimization is anticipated to further reduce these limits. These findings underscore the potential of MAI-ToF MS for isotopic characterization of uranium and other inorganic species for both basic and applied science.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗