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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sampling Functions from Gaussian Processes and Structured Covariance Gaussian Networks

When learning aerodynamic models from data, it is critical to incorporate estimates of model uncertainty. This motivates the design of probabilistic aerodynamic databases which can be sampled to generate physically and statistically plausible aerodynamic models. In this talk we discuss how to sample deterministic functions from two different kinds of probabilistic models and demonstrate their use. First, Gaussian Process Regressors (GPRs) are a widely used probabilistic kernel-based model which can be thought of as Gaussian distributions over functions. GPRs are generally trained by maximizing the marginal likelihood of seeing the training data over the kernel parameter space. Sample functions are easily generated by drawing points from the Gaussian distribution at desired input points. However, when the points are not known ahead of time, the classical sampling approach is not possible since successive function samples will generate different function realizations. We present an approach for sampling consistent function evaluations from a GPR over multiple samples. Second, we describe a neural network architecture which learns a conditional Gaussian distribution by maximizing the marginal likelihood at each point in the input space. We then discuss and compare several options for generating sample functions which match this distribution. Finally, we demonstrate the use of these probabilistic aerodynamic models in an atmospheric reentry simulation.

Gaussian process regression↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Architecture Robustness in NASA’s Moon to Mars Capability Development – FY23 Data Results

In preparation for humanity’s return to the Moon, it is important to advance technologies and capabilities that will allow for sustainability on the lunar surface and prepare for human missions to Mars. As charged in Space Policy Directive-1, NASA’s Artemis program will advance and develop technologies on the lunar surface that can be leveraged towards a safe and successful human round-trip mission to Mars. NASA’s Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate Capabilities Integration Team (ESDMD CIT) is advancing a continuous effort to identify and map gaps between capabilities and anticipated human spaceflight architecture elements. As upcoming exploration missions approach, the architectural design tradespace increasingly narrows. This paper provides an updated exploration of certain architectural and element design choices for upcoming missions to the Moon and Mars, comparing and contrasting capability gaps and classes of capability gaps that are architecture robust with those that are not. In doing so, we identify certain capabilities as relevant, and therefore robust, across varying architectural possibilities while identifying other capabilities as only applicable to specific architectural pathways. Capabilities that are applicable to multiple elements across the architecture have more architectural breadth because of their increased likelihood of remaining relevant even if changes are made to some elements they are mapped to. Correspondingly, capabilities that are applicable to specific elements across the architecture but are necessary under almost any eventuality have more architectural depth because of their increased likelihood of remaining relevant even if architecture changes are made. One of the key analyses in this paper is an exploration of architecture robustness as a function of capability area, as defined by the NASA Technology Taxonomy. These results are then evaluated and analyzed across human spaceflight architecture elements to gain a greater understanding of the relationships between exploration capabilities and the systems that will eventually be implemented. Additional insights regarding investment strategies are also considered. General conclusions about these relationships are drawn.

Gaps↗
NASA NTRS2023

Migration and Livelihood Constellations: Assessing Common Themes in the Face of Environmental Change in Somalia and Among Agro-Pastoral Peoples

Research on migration has become more challenging due to at least four factors: (1) more complex migration traditions; (2) the development of migration economies that engage many types of migrants from ever more social and cultural backgrounds; (3) increasing likelihood of climate change-driven environmental migration; and (4) increasing likelihood of conflict-based migration in some contexts. These developments have shaken economic theories of migration and have encouraged interdisciplinary, methodologically mixed, qualitative and quantitative research and analysis. From a review of the literature, we have gleaned 11 common themes about environmental, economic and conflict migration that we differentiate by process (migration behaviours that are still evolving) and patterns (migration behaviours that have become customary). We then consider how positive and negative dimensions of migration can be captured and represented with close attention to livelihood constellations (multiple economic activities combined by individuals, households and families). Finally, focusing on Somalia and agro-pastoral peoples generally, where recent environmental and conflict migration have been added to decades of economic migration and centuries of seasonal, environmental migration associated with pastoralism, we combine historical and qualitative work to demonstrate the value of a livelihood constellation perspective.

migration↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Inverse Chance-constrained Approach to the Calibration of Robust Models

This paper proposes a strategy to calibrate computational models according to uncertain input-output data. To this end, uncertainty in the data is first quantified by creating adversarial data sets. Samples drawn from such sets are then mapped from the input-output space to the parameter space using an inverse mapping. This mapping minimizes the collective output spread of an ensemble of point predictions while satisfying a set of individual data-matching requirements. The distribution of the resulting parameter points, which often exhibits strong parameter dependencies, is then modeled using sliced-normals. The chance-constrained formulation used to learn this distribution enables the analyst to trade-off a greater likelihood for most of the data against a lower likelihood for some of the data thereby relaxing the conservatism of the calibrated model. This formulation not only neglects the worst-performing quantiles of each adversarial distribution but also eliminates the potentially serious effects that outliers might have on the resulting model. This calibration approach not only has a considerably lower computational cost than the standard forward approach but it also allows for the identification of suitable distribution classes, which in turn yield better calibrated models.

Calibration↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pre-Flight Hazardous Gas Assessment Methodology for the Space Launch System

The complexity of the Artemis I liquid rocket propulsion systems produces many sources of hazards during the operation of the vehicle. Pre-flight hazardous gas leakages pose fire and explosion risks to rocket that could potentially lead to loss of the vehicle, mission, and crew. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) uses a probability risk assessment strategy to assess the likelihood of the hazard and the consequence should the hazardous situation occur. For high probability hazards that pose a potentially catastrophic consequence to the vehicle, the most effective strategy for reducing the risk is accomplished by engineering and implementing systems that actively mitigate the hazard. A hazards analysis is completed to determine the likelihood and severity of each hazard. These hazard analyses are informed using relevant empirical data and physics-based analytical models. Time-accurate Computational Fluid Dynamics models used to quantify and understand the risks posed to Artemis I due to expulsions of hazardous gas near the vehicle. Several sources of hazardous gas that posed a risk to Artemis I during nominal pre-flight operations are analyzed in this work. The results of the analyses were used to develop flight rationale and make risk acceptance decisions for the Artemis I launch.

Brian R. Richardson↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pre-Flight Hazardous Gas Assessment Methodology for the Space Launch System

The complexity of the Artemis I liquid rocket propulsion systems produces many sources of hazards during the operation of the vehicle. Pre-flight hazardous gas leakages pose fire and explosion risks to rocket that could potentially lead to loss of the vehicle, mission, and crew. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) uses a probability risk assessment strategy to assess the likelihood of the hazard and the consequence should the hazardous situation occur. For high probability hazards that pose a potentially catastrophic consequence to the vehicle, the most effective strategy for reducing the risk is accomplished by engineering and implementing systems that actively mitigate the hazard. A hazards analysis is completed to determine the likelihood and severity of each hazard. These hazard analyses are informed using relevant empirical data and physics-based analytical models. Time-accurate Computational Fluid Dynamics models used to quantify and understand the risks posed to Artemis I due to expulsions of hazardous gas near the vehicle. Several sources of hazardous gas that posed a risk to Artemis I during nominal pre-flight operations are analyzed in this work. The results of the analyses were used to develop flight rationale and make risk acceptance decisions for the Artemis I launch.

Brian R. Richardson↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Risk Characterization Research for Artemis II: Human Factors and Behavioral Performance

BACKGROUND Artemis II will be the first time NASA astronauts go beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO) since the Apollo era, and the first astronauts heading into space in the Orion vehicle. As such, it provides a critical opportunity to refine our understanding of the likelihood and consequences associated with the Behavioral Medicine (BMed), Team, Human System Integration Architecture (HSIA), and Sleep Risks, and prepare for future Moon and Mars missions. However, Artemis II research efforts are uniquely shaped by in-mission data collection constraints. There is currently no in-mission crew time available to complete measures. In-mission data will need to be collected unobtrusively from available data streams (e.g., audiovisual, existing records such as schedules, and actigraphy). Accordingly, the overarching goal of our research is to utilize Artemis II data to further define the likelihood and consequences of these risks, and to create an unobtrusive research infrastructure that can be expanded to include future Artemis missions. This goal spans four aims across three research phases: (1) identify and operationally define key performances metrics and constructs across the four aforementioned risks, (2) develop an unobtrusive methodology and coding scheme for in-mission data collection, (3) characterize performance decrements due to Bmed, Team, HSIA, and Sleep Risks, and (4) develop a data infrastructure for future Artemis missions. The following details results of Phase I efforts in which we address Aims 1 and 2 to develop an unobtrusive measurement plan and coding scheme to capture key constructs, contributing factors, and performance decrements across each risk area. METHOD As part of Phase I, we conducted an interdisciplinary literature review and consulted with SMEs to identify unobtrusive methodologies that leverage text, audio, and/or video data as well as conceptualize key performance metrics, contributing factors, and BMed, Team, HSIA, and Sleep risk constructs related to performance decrements. The Phase I effort resulted in a finalized pre- and post-mission protocol for Artemis II, along with a measurement and coding scheme for in-mission Artemis II data. Phase II will involve data collection from the upcoming Artemis II mission. Phase III will include data processing, coding, depiction, analysis, and report writing of the Artemis II data. RESULTS & DISCUSSION To date, we have completed Phase I efforts. Specifically, we identified BMed, Team, HSIA, and Sleep risk constructs related to performance metrics, summarized how these constructs can be measured using audiovisual data collected during the mission, and worked with NASA’s HFBP Element to finalize a data collection protocol that leverages audiovisual input from the Orion spacecraft system. Our protocol includes novel unobtrusive methodologies that adhere to in-mission data streams and subsequent constraints (e.g., limited storage space on GoPro cameras, ambient noise impeding audio files) to best capture in-mission phenomena across each risk area. We will present our results from Phase I efforts, namely best practices for unobtrusive measurement as identified through literature reviews and SME consultation as well as codebook excerpts for use in Artemis II. We will include a description of planned work as we prepare for Phase II and Phase III of this research plan and the Artemis II mission itself. SUMMARY We describe progress on our Human Factors and Behavioral Performance Research for Artemis II study.

behavioral health↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Airburst & Blast Damage Modeling Sensitivities for Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

Blast overpressure from a high-energy airburst or surface impact is the primary source of damage from potentially hazardous asteroid strikes. There are many sources of uncertainty in evaluating these potential damage risks, both in the approaches used to model the entry, breakup, and airburst behaviors of diverse asteroid properties, and in the blast modeling approaches used to estimate the ground damage from these very large-scale, high-energy events. In this study, we use NASA’s Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model to investigate trends and sensitivities in asteroid airburst altitudes and the resulting blast damage estimates across a range of asteroid sizes. In particular, we show how uncertainties in asteroid breakup behavior and effective airburst altitudes combine with height-of-burst (HOB) blast damage models to produce key sensitivities and trends in the amount of damage expected from different asteroid sizes and airburst altitudes. We show airburst altitude ranges and probabilities stemming from asteroid entry and breakup modeling uncertainties, compare differences between traditional nuclear-based HOB blast models and simulation-based HOB models for larger asteroid energies, and show how the resulting interplay between likely burst altitudes and optimal burst heights affects blast damage trends across different asteroid sizes. Finally, we combine the relative likelihoods of asteroid sizes, airburst altitudes, and resulting blast damage severity to evaluate what airburst regimes pose the highest overall level of risk (when considering both the relative likelihood and scale of potential damage) for a mid-sized asteroid threat scenario. Results show what asteroid size regimes are most sensitive to airburst and blast modeling uncertainties, provide insight into nonintuitive trends in the size and severity of blast damage expected from different airburst events, and highlight where additional blast modeling studies or refinements may help improve future impact risk estimates

ATAP↗
NASA NTRS2025

Mind the Gap: Addressing Data Gaps and Assessing Noise Mismodeling in LISA

Due to the sheer complexity of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) space mission, data gaps arising from instrumental irregularities and/or scheduled maintenance are unavoidable. Focusing on merger-dominated massive black hole binary signals, we test the appropriateness of the Whittle-likelihood on gapped data in a variety of cases. From first principles, we derive the likelihood valid for gapped data in both the time and frequency domains. Cheap-to-evaluate proxies to p-p plots are derived based on a Fisher-based formalism, and verified through Bayesian techniques. Our tools allow to predict the altered variance in the parameter estimates that arises from noise mismodeling, as well as the information loss represented by the broadening of the posteriors. The result of noise mismodeling with gaps is sensitive to the characteristics of the noise model, with strong low-frequency (red) noise and strong high-frequency (blue) noise giving statistically significant fluctuations in recovered parameters. We demonstrate that the introduction of a tapering window reduces statistical inconsistency errors, at the cost of less precise parameter estimates. We also show that the assumption of independence between inter-gap segments appears to be a fair approximation even if the data set is inherently coherent. However, if one instead assumes fictitious correlations in the data stream, when the data segments are actually independent, then the resultant parameter recoveries could be inconsistent with the true parameters. The theoretical and numerical practices that are presented in this work could readily be incorporated into global-fit pipelines operating on gapped data.

LISA↗
NASA NTRS2002

A statistical model for interpreting computerized dynamic posturography data

Computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) is widely used for assessment of altered balance control. CDP trials are quantified using the equilibrium score (ES), which ranges from zero to 100, as a decreasing function of peak sway angle. The problem of how best to model and analyze ESs from a controlled study is considered. The ES often exhibits a skewed distribution in repeated trials, which can lead to incorrect inference when applying standard regression or analysis of variance models. Furthermore, CDP trials are terminated when a patient loses balance. In these situations, the ES is not observable, but is assigned the lowest possible score--zero. As a result, the response variable has a mixed discrete-continuous distribution, further compromising inference obtained by standard statistical methods. Here, we develop alternative methodology for analyzing ESs under a stochastic model extending the ES to a continuous latent random variable that always exists, but is unobserved in the event of a fall. Loss of balance occurs conditionally, with probability depending on the realized latent ES. After fitting the model by a form of quasi-maximum-likelihood, one may perform statistical inference to assess the effects of explanatory variables. An example is provided, using data from the NIH/NIA Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗
NASA NTRS2000

Prediction of thrombus-related mechanical prosthetic valve dysfunction using transesophageal echocardiography

Identification of thrombus-related mechanical prosthetic valve dysfunction (MPVD) has important therapeutic implications. We sought to develop an algorithm, combining clinical and echocardiographic parameters, for prediction of thrombus-related MPVD in a series of 53 patients (24 men, age 52 +/- 16 years) who had intraoperative diagnosis of thrombus or pannus from 1992 to 1997. Clinical and echocardiographic parameters were analyzed to identify predictors of thrombus and pannus. Prevalence of thrombus and diagnostic yields relative to the number of predictors were determined. There were 22 patients with thrombus, 19 patients with pannus, and 12 patients with both. Forty-two of 53 masses were visualized using transesophageal echocardiography (TEE), including 29 of 34 thrombi or both thrombi and panni and 13 of 19 isolated panni. Predictors of thrombus or mixed presentation include mobile mass (p = 0.009), attachment to occluder (p = 0.02), elevated gradients (p = 0.04), and an international normalized ratio of < or = 2.5 (p = 0.03). All 34 patients with thrombus or mixed presentation had > or = 1 predictor. The prevalence of thrombus in the presence of < or = 1, 2, and > or = 3 predictors is 14%, 69%, and 91%, respectively. Thus, TEE is sensitive in the identification of abnormal mass in the setting of MPVD. An algorithm based on clinical and transesophageal echocardiographic predictors may be useful to estimate the likelihood of thrombus in the setting of MPVD. In the presence of > or = 3 predictors, the probability of thrombus is high.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRS1997

Modeling the effects of exercise during 100% oxygen prebreathe on the risk of hypobaric decompression sickness

BACKGROUND: Several previous studies indicated that exercise during prebreathe with 100% O2 decreased the incidence of hypobaric decompression sickness (DCS). We report a meta-analysis of these investigations combined with a new study in our laboratory to develop a statistical model as a predictive tool for DCS. HYPOTHESIS: Exercise during prebreathe increases N2 elimination in a theoretical 360-min half-time compartment decreasing the incidence of DCS. METHODS: A dose-response probability tissue ratio (TR) model with 95% confidence limits was created for two groups, prebreathe with exercise (n = 113) and resting prebreathe (n = 113), using nonlinear regression analysis with maximum likelihood optimization. RESULTS: The model predicted that prebreathe exercise would reduce the residual N2 in a 360-min half-time compartment to a level analogous to that in a 180-min compartment. This finding supported the hypothesis. The incidence of DCS for the exercise prebreathe group was significantly decreased (Chi-Square = 17.1, p < 0.0001) from the resting prebreathe group. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggested that exercise during prebreathe increases tissue perfusion and N2 elimination approximately 2-fold and markedly lowers the risk of DCS. Based on the model, the prebreathe duration may be reduced from 240 min to a predicted 91 min for the protocol in our study, but this remains to be verified. The model provides a useful planning tool to develop and test appropriate prebreathe exercise protocols and to predict DCS risks for astronauts.

NASA Program Environmental Health↗
NASA NTRS1996

Two-stage model of radon-induced malignant lung tumors in rats: effects of cell killing

A two-stage stochastic model of carcinogenesis is used to analyze lung tumor incidence in 3750 rats exposed to varying regimens of radon carried on a constant-concentration uranium ore dust aerosol. New to this analysis is the parameterization of the model such that cell killing by the alpha particles could be included. The model contains parameters characterizing the rate of the first mutation, the net proliferation rate of initiated cells, the ratio of the rates of cell loss (cell killing plus differentiation) and cell division, and the lag time between the appearance of the first malignant cell and the tumor. Data analysis was by standard maximum likelihood estimation techniques. Results indicate that the rate of the first mutation is dependent on radon and consistent with in vitro rates measured experimentally, and that the rate of the second mutation is not dependent on radon. An initial sharp rise in the net proliferation rate of initiated cell was found with increasing exposure rate (denoted model I), which leads to an unrealistically high cell-killing coefficient. A second model (model II) was studied, in which the initial rise was attributed to promotion via a step function, implying that it is due not to radon but to the uranium ore dust. This model resulted in values for the cell-killing coefficient consistent with those found for in vitro cells. An "inverse dose-rate" effect is seen, i.e. an increase in the lifetime probability of tumor with a decrease in exposure rate. This is attributed in large part to promotion of intermediate lesions. Since model II is preferable on biological grounds (it yields a plausible cell-killing coefficient), such as uranium ore dust. This analysis presents evidence that a two-stage model describes the data adequately and generates hypotheses regarding the mechanism of radon-induced carcinogenesis.

NASA Program Radiation Health↗
NASA NTRS2005

Origin of the Eumetazoa: testing ecological predictions of molecular clocks against the Proterozoic fossil record

Molecular clocks have the potential to shed light on the timing of early metazoan divergences, but differing algorithms and calibration points yield conspicuously discordant results. We argue here that competing molecular clock hypotheses should be testable in the fossil record, on the principle that fundamentally new grades of animal organization will have ecosystem-wide impacts. Using a set of seven nuclear-encoded protein sequences, we demonstrate the paraphyly of Porifera and calculate sponge/eumetazoan and cnidarian/bilaterian divergence times by using both distance [minimum evolution (ME)] and maximum likelihood (ML) molecular clocks; ME brackets the appearance of Eumetazoa between 634 and 604 Ma, whereas ML suggests it was between 867 and 748 Ma. Significantly, the ME, but not the ML, estimate is coincident with a major regime change in the Proterozoic acritarch record, including: (i) disappearance of low-diversity, evolutionarily static, pre-Ediacaran acanthomorphs; (ii) radiation of the high-diversity, short-lived Doushantuo-Pertatataka microbiota; and (iii) an order-of-magnitude increase in evolutionary turnover rate. We interpret this turnover as a consequence of the novel ecological challenges accompanying the evolution of the eumetazoan nervous system and gut. Thus, the more readily preserved microfossil record provides positive evidence for the absence of pre-Ediacaran eumetazoans and strongly supports the veracity, and therefore more general application, of the ME molecular clock.

NASA Discipline Evolutionary Biology↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Limits of Coding with Joint Constraints on Detected and Undetected Error Rates

We develop a remarkably tight upper bound on the performance of a parameterized family of bounded angle maximum-likelihood (BA-ML) incomplete decoders. The new bound for this class of incomplete decoders is calculated from the code's weight enumerator, and is an extension of Poltyrev-type bounds developed for complete ML decoders. This bound can also be applied to bound the average performance of random code ensembles in terms of an ensemble average weight enumerator. We also formulate conditions defining a parameterized family of optimal incomplete decoders, defined to minimize both the total codeword error probability and the undetected error probability for any fixed capability of the decoder to detect errors. We illustrate the gap between optimal and BA-ML incomplete decoding via simulation of a small code.

Undetected Error Rate↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mapping Mitigation Risk Consequence for Crew Needing Assistance or Rescue on the Lunar Surface

Extravehicular activity (EVA) on the lunar surface presents unique risks to crew with possibility for injury. Without appropriate assistance or rescue capability, inability to nominally ambulate and return to a lander, especially during early Artemis missions, could have catastrophic consequences. Mapping likelihood and consequence safety risk associated with identified injury scenarios establishes a baseline from which to assess potential mitigation solutions to ensure crew health and safety.

lunar surface↗
NASA NTRS2023

A Confidence-Based Approach to Including Survivors in a Probabilistic TID Failure Assessment

A probabilistic total ionizing dose (TID) failure assessment is extended to include survivor data, enabling the bounding of failure probability to a desired confidence level (CL) without failure data. The extension provides an avenue for analyzing microelectronics tested for TID without reaching a failure mode, a scenario often encountered by missions utilizing commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) technologies. Using the type-I censored likelihood formulation and a realistic upper bound on expected device performance, the failure probability space is bounded by confidence contours within the context of a variable environment. The framework accommodates any type of distribution assumed for the part failure or the environment under consideration. Furthermore, the framework can be utilized pre-emptively to plan future device TID tests, minimizing costs while meeting survival requirements. Heritage data may also be used as survivors to further minimize testing costs when parts are from the same lot, but the amount of constraint derived from heritage is limited. Altogether, the framework enables a formal, mathematically rigorous analysis of radiation tolerant devices tested to a maximum dose, as well as flight heritage, in a hardness assurance methodology.

confidence↗