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At least 469 records · Page 26

Uncertainty Quantification Framework for Predicting Material Response with Large Number of Parameters: Application to Creep Prediction in Ferritic-Martensitic Steels Using Combined Crystal Plasticity and Grain Boundary Models

This paper presents an uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework for the physics-based model prediction of material response with a large number of parameters. The application problem presented in this work is that of predicting creep in Grade 91 steel at 600°C. The material response is defined with a physically based microstructural model with constitutive equations emulating several observed phenomena in Grade 91 and embodied into an explicit geometry mesoscale finite element model for prior austenite grains and grain boundaries. Creep within the grains and in grain boundaries are represented by crystal plasticity for dislocation motion and a physics-based model for cavity growth and nucleation, respectively. The creep behavior of this material is influenced by several parameters, some of which have a wide range of variation based on experimental data. UQ combined with microstructural modeling can discover the core microstructural causes of experimental variability, leading to improved materials with lower variability in critical long-term material properties. In this study, we investigate the model's uncertainty to identify material properties that may be modified during production to increase creep life and analyze different components of the crystal plasticity model for improvements. For this purpose, a quantity of interest is defined as time to minimum creep rate, which correlates well to the creep failure of the material. A deep neural network model was trained and validated to be used as a surrogate for the finite element model. Then, a variance-based sensitivity analysis is performed on the surrogate model to find the Sobol indices of the input parameters in respect to the output quantity of interest. The Sobol indices are used to reduce the dimensionality of the model. Generalized polynomial chaos expansion is used on the reduced basis models to propagate the uncertainty from the input parameters to the quantity of interest using the deep neural network surrogate model. These results are benchmarked against uncertainty propagation using Monte Carlo simulations. In conclusion, the UQ performed through the reduced basis model captures almost all the uncertainty in the model with significantly fewer simulations, making it possible to perform the UQ directly via simulations with the finite element model rather than surrogate machine-learned models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NREL’s Wind Turbine Drivetrain Condition Monitoring and Wind Plant Operation and Maintenance Research During the 2010s: A US Land-Based Perspective

The wind industry has seen tremendous growth during the past two decades, with the global cumulative installation capacity reaching more than 650 gigawatts by the end of 2019. Despite performance and reliability improvements of utility-scale wind turbines over the years, the industry still experiences premature component failures, leading to increased operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Among various turbine components, gearboxes—and, more broadly, drivetrains—have shown to be costly to maintain throughout the design life of a wind turbine. The problem of premature component failure is industry wide. As early as 2007, the US Department of Energy (DOE) started to address this challenge through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) reliability initiative that first focused on gearboxes and more recently expanded to entire drivetrains. The wind turbine drivetrain condition monitoring and wind plant O&M research that is the subject of this paper is part of the NREL initiative and includes a few research and development (R&D) activities conducted during the 2010s. These activities included technology evaluation during the first few years; novel monitoring technique investigation (specifically, compact filter analysis) during the middle years; and data and physics domain modeling for fault detection and prediction in recent years. A high-level summary of these activities is provided in this paper along with some key observations from each activity. Most of the work discussed has been published and can be referred to for more information. They reflect the expected evolution of wind turbine condition monitoring and O&M in the US market—primarily, a land-based perspective. In addition, we have identified several R&D opportunities that can be picked up by the research community to help industry advance in related areas, making wind power more cost competitive in the future.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Impact of battery cell imbalance on electric vehicle range

Due to manufacturing variation, battery cells often possess heterogeneous characteristics, leading to battery state-of-charge variation in real-time. Since the lowest cell state-of-charge determines the useful life of battery pack, such variation can negatively impact the battery performance and electric vehicles range. Existing research has been focused on control design to mitigate cell imbalance. However, it is yet unclear how much impacts the cell imbalance can have on electric vehicle range. This paper closes this knowledge gap by using a simulation environment consisting of real-world driving speed data, vehicle longitudinal control, propulsion and vehicle dynamics, and cell level battery modeling. In particular, each battery cell is modeled as an equivalent circuit model, and variations among cell parameters are introduced to assess their impact on electric vehicles range and to identify the most influential parameter variations. Simulation results and analysis can be used to assist balancing control design and to benchmark control performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A machine learning aided interpretable model for rupture strength prediction in Fe-based martensitic and austenitic alloys

Abstract The class of 9–12% Cr ferritic-martensitic alloys (FMA) and austenitic stainless steels have received considerable attention due to their numerous applications in high temperature power generation industries. To design high strength steels with prolonged service life requires a thorough understanding of the long-term properties, e.g., creep rupture strength, rupture life, etc., as a function of the chemical composition and processing parameters that govern the microstructural characteristics. In this article, the creep rupture strength of both 9–12% Cr FMA and austenitic stainless steel has been parameterized using curated experimental datasets with a gradient boosting machine. The trained model has been cross validated against unseen test data and achieved high predictive performance in terms of correlation coefficient ( $$R^{2} > 0.98 $$ R 2 > 0.98 for 9–12% Cr FMA and $$R^{2} > 0.95 $$ R 2 > 0.95 for austenitic stainless steel) thus bypassing the need for additional comprehensive tensile test campaigns or physical theoretical calculations. Furthermore, the feature importance has been computed using the Shapley value analysis to understand the complex interplay of different features.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Systematic and scalable genome-wide essentiality mapping to identify nonessential genes in phages

Phages are one of the key ecological drivers of microbial community dynamics, function, and evolution. Despite their importance in bacterial ecology and evolutionary processes, phage genes are poorly characterized, hampering their usage in a variety of biotechnological applications. Methods to characterize such genes, even those critical to the phage life cycle, are labor intensive and are generally phage specific. Here, we develop a systematic gene essentiality mapping method scalable to new phage–host combinations that facilitate the identification of nonessential genes. As a proof of concept, we use an arrayed genome-wide CRISPR interference (CRISPRi) assay to map gene essentiality landscape in the canonical coliphages λ and P1. Results from a single panel of CRISPRi probes largely recapitulate the essential gene roster determined from decades of genetic analysis for lambda and provide new insights into essential and nonessential loci in P1. We present evidence of how CRISPRi polarity can lead to false positive gene essentiality assignments and recommend caution towards interpreting CRISPRi data on gene essentiality when applied to less studied phages. Finally, we show that we can engineer phages by inserting DNA barcodes into newly identified inessential regions, which will empower processes of identification, quantification, and tracking of phages in diverse applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Predictive models of long COVID

Background: The cause and symptoms of long COVID are poorly understood. It is challenging to predict whether a given COVID-19 patient will develop long COVID in the future. Methods: We used electronic health record (EHR) data from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative to predict the incidence of long COVID. We trained two machine learning (ML) models — logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF). Features used to train predictors included symptoms and drugs ordered during acute infection, measures of COVID-19 treatment, pre-COVID comorbidities, and demographic information. We assigned the ‘long COVID’ label to patients diagnosed with the U09.9 ICD10-CM code. The cohorts included patients with (a) EHRs reported from data partners using U09.9 ICD10-CM code and (b) at least one EHR in each feature category. We analysed three cohorts: all patients (n = 2,190,579; diagnosed with long COVID = 17,036), inpatients (149,319; 3,295), and outpatients (2,041,260; 13,741). Findings: LR and RF models yielded median AUROC of 0.76 and 0.75, respectively. Ablation study revealed that drugs had the highest influence on the prediction task. The SHAP method identified age, gender, cough, fatigue, albuterol, obesity, diabetes, and chronic lung disease as explanatory features. Models trained on data from one N3C partner and tested on data from the other partners had average AUROC of 0.75. Interpretation: ML-based classification using EHR information from the acute infection period is effective in predicting long COVID. SHAP methods identified important features for prediction. Cross-site analysis demonstrated the generalizability of the proposed methodology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Subetadex-α-methyl, a Polyanionic Cyclodextrin Scaffold, as a Medical Countermeasure against Fentanyl and Related Opioids

Subetadex-α-methyl (SBX-Me), a modified, polyanionic cyclodextrin scaffold, has been evaluated for its utilization as a medical countermeasure (MCM) to neutralize the effects of fentanyl and related opioids. Initial in vitro toxicity assays demonstrate that SBX-Me has a nontoxic profile, comparable to the FDA-approved cyclodextrin-based drug Sugammadex. Pharmacokinetic analysis showed rapid clearance of SBX-Me with an elimination half-life of ~7.4 h and little accumulation in major organs. SBX-Me was also evaluated for its ability to counteract the effects of fentanyl, carfentanil, and remifentanil in rats. Recovery times in rats exposed to sublethal fentanyl doses were found to be shorter when treated with SBX-Me after opioid exposure. The recovery times were reduced from ~35 to ~17 min for fentanyl, ~172 to ~59 min for carfentanil, and ~18 to ~12 min for remifentanil. SBX-Me increased the elimination half-life for fentanyl and remifentanil from 5.37 to 6.42 h and 8.24 to 9.74 h, respectively. These data support SBX-Me as a solid platform from which further research can be launched for the development of a MCM against the effects of fentanyl and its analogs. Furthermore, the data suggests that SBX-Me and other analogs are attractive candidates as broad spectrum opioids targeting MCMs.

Chemistry↗

Sustainable Campus with PEV and Microgrid

Market penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) is gaining momentum, as is the move towards increasingly distributed, clean and renewable electricity sources. EV charging shifts a significant portion of transportation energy use onto building electricity meters. Hence, integration strategies for energy-efficiency in buildings and transport sectors are of increasing importance. This paper focuses on a portion of that integration: the analysis of an optimal interaction of EVs with a building-serving transformer, and coupling it to a microgrid that includes PV, a fuel cell and a natural gas micro-turbine. The test-case is the Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore campus. The system under study is the Laboratory of Clean Energy Research (LaCER) Lab that houses the award winning Microgrid Energy Management System (MG-EMS) project. The paper analyses three different case scenarios to estimate the number of EVs that can be supported by the building transformer serving LaCER. An approximation of the actual load data collected for the building into different time intervals is performed for a transformer loss of life (LOL) calculation. The additional EV loads that can be supported by the transformer with and without the microgrid are analyzed. The numbers of possible EVs that can be charged at any given time under the three scenarios are also determined. The possibility of using EV fleet at NTU campus to achieve demand response capability and intermittent PV output leveling through vehicle to grid (V2G) technology and building energy management systems is also explored.

Singh, Reshma↗

A deep redox proteome profiling workflow and its application to skeletal muscle of a Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy model

Perturbation to the redox state accompanies many diseases and its effects are viewed through oxidation of biomolecules, including proteins, lipids, and nucleic acids. The thiol groups of protein cysteine residues undergo an array of redox post-translational modifications (PTMs) that are important for regulation of protein and pathway function. To better understand what proteins are redox regulated following a perturbation, it is important to be able to comprehensively profile protein thiol oxidation at the proteome level. Herein, we report a deep redox proteome profiling workflow and demonstrate its application in measuring the changes in thiol oxidation along with global protein expression in skeletal muscle from mdx mice, a model of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD). In depth coverage of the thiol proteome was achieved with >18,000 Cys sites from 5608 proteins in muscle being quantified. Compared to the control group, mdx mice exhibit markedly increased thiol oxidation, where ~2% shift in the median oxidation occupancy was observed. Further, pathway analysis for the redox data revealed that coagulation system and immune-related pathways were among the most susceptible to increased thiol oxidation in mdx mice, whereas protein abundance changes were more enriched in pathways associated with bioenergetics. This study illustrates the importance of deep redox profiling in gaining greater insight into oxidative stress regulation and pathways/processes that are perturbed in an oxidizing environment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Broad SARS-CoV-2 neutralization by monoclonal and bispecific antibodies derived from a Gamma-infected individual

The pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has remained a medical threat due to the evolution of multiple variants that acquire resistance to vaccines and prior infection. Therefore, it is imperative to discover monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) that neutralize a broad range of SARS-CoV-2 variants. A stabilized spike glycoprotein was used to enrich antigen-specific B cells from an individual with a primary Gamma variant infection. Five mAbs selected from those B cells showed considerable neutralizing potency against multiple variants, with COVA309-35 being the most potent against the autologous virus, as well as Omicron BA.1 and BA.2, and COVA309-22 having binding and neutralization activity against Omicron BA.4/5, BQ.1.1, and XBB.1. When combining the COVA309 mAbs as cocktails or bispecific antibodies, the breadth and potency were improved. In addition, the mechanism of cross-neutralization of the COVA309 mAbs was elucidated by structural analysis. Altogether these data indicate that a Gamma-infected individual can develop broadly neutralizing antibodies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Estimating geographic origins of corn and soybean biomass for biofuel production: A detailed dataset

Sustainable fuel initiatives in the United States such as the Environmental Protection Agency’s Renewable Fuel Stan- dard and the Department of Energy’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge have increased the production of corn ethanol and soybean biodiesel. However, the lack of precise information regarding biomass sourcing at a localized level has hindered accurate understanding of both biofuel costs and environmental impact of these production pathways. By harnessing the power of geospatial analysis and leveraging United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop cen- sus data, this dataset fills this critical knowledge gap. This dataset offers a novel estimation of geospatial biomass sourc- ing for biofuel production in the United States by synthe- sizing 2017 USDA crop census data, biorefinery data from the United States Energy Information Administration, and publicly available information about biomass sourcing for biofuel production. This dataset provides a detailed under- standing of biomass use for first generation biofuel pro- duction, enabling stakeholders to make informed decisions about resource allocation, investment strategies, and infras- tructure development. Furthermore, the county-level gran- ularity of the dataset allows for increased fidelity in the techno-economic assessments and life-cycle analyses of first- generation biofuels in the United States.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

GRUMDN: A Multi-Task Model for Predicting Human Patterns-of-Life from Stay Transition Data

Understanding human patterns-of-life (PoL) is essential towards ensuring safe and secure indoor facility environment as well as outdoor urban environment. Prediction of human movement in between places of interest is vital in understanding human PoL. Movement between spaces maybe represented and detected in one of the two forms: 1) trajectories: locations measured at regular time intervals by mobile sensors, bluetooth or GPS sensors; or 2) stay transitions: semantic PoI (points of interest) and stay duration data measurable by eventbased sensors that collect data when a check-in or check-out event is detected. Stay transition data provides a more compressed data format compared to trajectories data, especially in situations with longer stay durations, while preserving the information necessary for PoL analysis. Now as introduced briefly in the paper, our deployed end application (Digital Twin of a facility with non-player characters, besides the interactive user in virtual reality) needed a well-performing and validated AI/ML model for simulating high quality stay transitions behavior. In this study we thus primarily present our findings with developing and validating that model, which is a multi-task neural network for stay transition prediction. The neural network consists of two heads, for corresponding two tasks of stay category prediction and stay duration prediction. We evaluated gated recurrent units and multi-layer perceptrons of varying network sizes for stay category prediction; while mixture density networks, noisy generator-only networks, and generative adversarial networks of varying network sizes for stay duration prediction. We have then evaluated four multi-task models, constructed by combining these specialized models, on their ability to predict stay transition data. We tested our models on datasets from two different cases: 1) a simulation-generated dataset of indoor movement within the HFIR (high flux isotope reactor) nuclear reactor facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); and 2) the GeoLife human mobility dataset of outdoor urban movement available in literature. Our results indicate that GRUMDN, which combines gated recurrent units (GRU) for stay category prediction task, and mixture density networks (MDN) for stay duration prediction task, did overall outperform other multitask models and the current state-of-the-art.

Gunaratne, Chathika [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000225088745↗

USEEIO v2.0, The US Environmentally-Extended Input-Output Model v2.0

USEEIO v2.0 is an environmental-economic model of US goods and services that can be used for life cycle assessment, footprinting, national prioritization, and related applications. This paper describes the development of the model and accompanies the release of a full model dataset as well as various supporting datasets of national environmental totals by US industry. Novel methodological elements since USEEIO v1 models include waste sector disaggregation, final demand vectors for US consumption and production, a domestic form of the model that can be used to separate domestic and foreign impacts, and price adjustment matrices for converting outputs to purchaser price and in various US dollar years. Improvements in modeling national totals of industry and environmental flows are described. The model is validated through reproduction of national totals from input data sources and through analysis of changes from the most recent complete USEEIO model that can be explained based on data updates or method changes. The model datasets can all be reproduced with open source software packages.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data for An End-to-End Pipeline for Succinic Acid Production at an Industrially Relevant Scale Using Issatchenkia orientalis

Microbial production of succinic acid (SA) at an industrially relevant scale has been hindered by high downstream processing costs arising from neutral pH fermentation for over three decades. Here, we metabolically engineer the acid-tolerant yeast Issatchenkia orientalis for SA production, attaining the highest titers in sugar-based media at low pH (pH 3) in fed-batch fermentations, i.e. 109.5 g/L in minimal medium and 104.6 g/L in sugarcane juice medium. We further perform batch fermentation using sugarcane juice medium in a pilot-scale fermenter (300×) and achieve 63.1 g/L of SA, which can be directly crystallized with a yield of 64.0%. Finally, we simulate an end-to-end low-pH SA production pipeline, and techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment indicate our process is financially viable and can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 34–90% relative to fossil-based production processes. We expect I. orientalis can serve as a general industrial platform for production of organic acids.

Metabolomics↗

Life Cycle Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Clean Fuels with the R&D GREET 2024 Model

This document summarizes research on the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions rates from the production and use of clean fuels to support a new version of the Research and Development Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Technologies (R&D GREET) model, R&D GREET 2024 In this effort, Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) focuses on clean fuel pathways that are readily available in the market or are emerging in the near term. The selected pathways represent clean fuel technologies that convert biomass- and/or waste-based feedstocks to liquid and/or gaseous fuels for the transportation sector and other potential uses. The pathways are configured in R&D GREET 2024 with up-to-date feedstock-to-fuel life cycle inventory (LCI) data. Additionally, a new tab has been added to R&D GREET 2024 called “Clean Fuels” which allows the user to easily change inputs and access LCA results. Argonne does not warrant that the results presented in this report are consistent with the requirements of any particular regulatory or incentive program. Users interested in specific programs that reference GREET are encouraged to review guidance specific to those programs if and when it is available to determine appropriate means of compliance and contact the relevant responsible agencies for those specific policies or programs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Data for Protoplast Fusion as a Strategy to Increase Ploidy in Rhodotorula toruloides for Strain Development

Rhodotorula toruloides is a red oleaginous yeast with growing commercial interest because of its hardiness and exceptional lipid production capacity. Because it is a basidiomycete yeast with a complex life cycle, many of the classical breeding methods used with ascomycetes are unavailable for strain improvement. However, we have been able to construct polyploid yeast by fusing protoplasts of parents with the same mating type. Fusing of Y-6985 (A2) and Y-48190 (A2), which had been transformed with complementary antibiotic markers, led to the recovery of two diploids and one triploid. The stability of the fusion yeasts was tested by plating them on non-selective medium after several growth cycles under antibiotics and then testing five colonies per strain for nuclear DNA contents using flow cytometry and standard cell cycle analysis: the triploid and one diploid were stable. Fusants inherited their mitochondria from a single parent, which was demonstrated using restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) of mitochondrial DNA. The phenotypic properties of the parents and fusants were compared in glucose fed-batch bioreactor studies and cellulosic sugar batch cultures. The final lipid titers for the fed-batch cultures were 24.9–39.7 g/L with Y-6985 and the diploid and triploid performing the best and worst, respectively. The fusants demonstrated intermediate hardiness for growth on hydrolysate prepared with dilute-acid pretreated switchgrass and were outperformed by Y-48190. Unlike one of the haploid parents, the fusants grew in 70% v/v concentrated hydrolysate. However, they did not grow as fast as the other haploid. In this study, a modernized protoplast fusion method is resurrected a useful tool for strain development in this yeast, which is complementary with other available methods.

FOS: Biological sciences↗

From subsidies to stressors: Positively skewed ecological gradients alter biological responses to nutrients in streams

Abstract Subsidy–stress gradients offer a useful framework for understanding ecological responses to perturbation and may help inform ecological metrics in highly modified systems. Historic, region‐wide shifts from bottomland hardwood forest to row crop agriculture can cause positively skewed impact gradients in alluvial plain ecoregions, resulting in tolerant organisms that typically exhibit a subsidy response (increased abundance in response to environmental stressors) shifting to a stress response (declining abundance at higher concentrations). As a result, observed biological tolerance in modified ecosystems may differ from less modified regions, creating significant challenges for detecting biological responses to restoration efforts. Using the agriculturally dominated Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) ecoregion in Mississippi, USA, as a case study, we tested the hypothesis that macroinvertebrate taxa that typically display a subsidy response to nutrient enrichment in less modified ecoregions (i.e., nutrient‐tolerance) shift to a stress response to increasing nutrients in highly modified watersheds with elevated baseline nutrient conditions (i.e., nutrient intolerance). The abundance and diversity of MAP‐specific intolerant taxa identified with threshold indicator taxa analysis were either unresponsive or exhibited a subsidy response to increasing nutrients in less modified ecoregions in Mississippi with less land alteration and lower nutrient concentrations, but declined at higher concentrations, providing evidence for a stress response to elevated nutrients in the MAP. Additionally, MAP‐specific tolerant and intolerant taxa richness responded to increased nutrients predictably and consistently across space and time within the MAP. However, in MAP streams, elevated specific conductance was predicted to dampen the response of tolerant and intolerant taxa richness to increasing nutrient concentrations, highlighting the importance of considering multistressor interactions when interpreting biological data. Lastly, we demonstrate the efficacy of this approach with sediment bacterial communities characterized with amplicon sequencing, which lack sufficient life history characteristics necessary for the development of multimetric indices. Both macroinvertebrate and bacterial communities responded similarly to increasing nutrient concentrations, suggesting DNA‐based approaches may provide an efficient biological assessment tool for monitoring water quality improvements in highly modified watersheds.

DeVilbiss, Stephen E. [U.S. Geological Survey Lowe↗

Understanding Biomass Burning Aerosol via Integrated Analyses of Aerosol Mass Spectrometry Data from DOE Campaigns and ACRF Long Term Measurements

Biomass burning (BB) is one of the largest sources of aerosol particles in the atmosphere and a significant source of trace gases important to atmospheric chemistry. Organic aerosols from biomass burning sources (BBOA) are an important but poorly characterized component of the earth’s climate system. BBOA composition and life cycle processes are associated with enormous complexities and contribute significantly to model uncertainties. Hence it is important to improve the ability to simulate the concentration and properties (chemical, optical, and hygroscopic) of BBOA and the atmospheric aging processes that affect these properties. Here, we propose to analyze ambient data collected from the DOE Biomass Burning Observation Project (BBOP) field campaign and from a long term measurement site of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program – the Southern Great Plains (SGP), where transported BB plumes and elevated BBOA episodes were frequently observed. This project is aimed at 1) gaining detailed, quantitative understanding of the chemical and physical properties of BBOA and their chemical changes during atmospheric aging via advanced analysis of aerosol measurement data acquired at the summit of Mt. Bachelor (MBO) during the BBOP campaign and through integration with concurrent measurements of trace gases, particle properties, and meteorological conditions performed at MBO and from the G-1 aircraft; 2) gaining better understanding of BBOA properties and its roles in radiative forcing via analysis of routine data from the ARM long-term measurement sites; and 3) integrating the results from 1) and 2) into a global database of aerosol mass spectrometry and collaborate with modelers on evaluating and improving numerical model performance as part of the ASR program.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗