Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “interval analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 469 records · Page 26

Scalable In Situ Computation of Lagrangian Representations via Local Flow Maps

In situ computation of Lagrangian flow maps to enable post hoc time-varying vector field analysis has recently become an active area of research. However, the current literature is largely limited to theoretical settings and lacks a solution to address scalability of the technique in distributed memory. To improve scalability, we propose and evaluate the benefits and limitations of a simple, yet novel, performance optimization. Our proposed optimization is a communication-free model resulting in local Lagrangian flow maps, requiring no message passing or synchronization between processes, intrinsically improving scalability, and thereby reducing overall execution time and alleviating the encumbrance placed on simulation codes from communication overheads. To evaluate our approach, we computed Lagrangian flow maps for four time-varying simulation vector fields and investigated how execution time and reconstruction accuracy are impacted by the number of GPUs per compute node, the total number of compute nodes, particles per rank, and storage intervals. Our study consisted of experiments computing Lagrangian flow maps with up to 67M particle trajectories over 500 cycles and used as many as 2048 GPUs across 512 compute nodes. In all, our study contributes an evaluation of a communication-free model as well as a scalability study of computing distributed Lagrangian flow maps at scale using in situ infrastructure on a modern supercomputer.

Sane, Sudhanshu↗

Techno-Economic Analysis and Optimization of a Compressed-Air Energy Storage System Integrated with a Natural Gas Combined-Cycle Plant

To address the rising electricity demand and greenhouse gas concentration in the environment, considerable effort is being carried out across the globe on installing and operating renewable energy sources. However, the renewable energy production is affected by diurnal and seasonal variability. To ensure that the electric grid remains reliable and resilient even for the high penetration of renewables into the grid, various types of energy storage systems are being investigated. In this paper, a compressed-air energy storage (CAES) system integrated with a natural gas combined-cycle (NGCC) power plant is investigated where air is extracted from the gas turbine compressor or injected back into the gas turbine combustor when it is optimal to do so. First-principles dynamic models of the NGCC plant and CAES are developed along with the development of an economic model. The dynamic optimization of the integrated system is undertaken in the Python/Pyomo platform for maximizing the net present value (NPV). NPV optimization is undertaken for 14 regions/cases considering year-long locational marginal price (LMP) data with a 1 h interval. Design variables such as the storage capacity and storage pressure, as well as the operating variables such as the power plant load, air injection rate, and air extraction rate, are optimized. Results show that the integrated CAES system has a higher NPV than the NGCC-only system for all 14 regions, thus indicating the potential deployment of the integrated system under the assumption of the availability of caverns in close proximity to the NGCC plant. The levelized cost of storage is found to be in the range of 136–145 $/MWh. Roundtrip efficiency is found to be between 74.6–82.5%. A sensitivity study with respect to LMP shows that the LMP profile has a significant impact on the extent of air injection/extraction while capital expenditure reduction has a negligible effect.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Uncertainty Quantification Enabled by Automatic Differentiation for Hydrodynamic Simulation of Shock‐to‐Detonation Transition in High Explosives

Quantifying the effects of uncertainty in a reactive burn model on the run-to-detonation time in high explosives (HEs) provides a robust methodology for assessing the probability of an HE failing the IHE qualification standard. Moreover, uncertainty quantification helps evaluate whether the model calibration accurately represents data outside the calibration set. This study uses a specialized hydrodynamic simulation code for modeling detonation to determine the run-to-detonation time of the HE PBX 9502 for various impact velocities. To quickly approximate uncertainties in the model, a surrogate was constructed using a Taylor series expansion centered at the mean of the input parameters. To obtain the sensitivities required for constructing the Taylor series, HYP-percomplex Automatic Differentiation (HYPAD) was implemented. HYPAD is a methodology for infusing existing codes with automatic differentiation capabilities by augmenting variables with one or more imaginary units to compute step-size independent partial derivatives. These derivatives are accurate to machine precision with respect to the implemented numerical algorithm, meaning their accuracy reflects that of the underlying method (e.g., integration or discretization schemes). Using reduced order modeling techniques, the mean and standard deviation of the run-to-detonation time of a shock within PBX 9502 were computed for a number of initial impact velocities. A weighted least squares regression was then performed to obtain a best fit curve and prediction interval for the computed statistics. Historical data points from explosively driven wedge tests were utilized to validate the prediction interval, ensuring its reliability in predicting future outcomes. With this prediction interval and a known safety constraint curve, the most probable point of failure and the probability of failure for the HE PBX 9502 were determined.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Soft x-ray spectrum unfold of K-edge filtered x-ray diode arrays using cubic splines

Cubic spline interpolation is able to recover temporally and spectrally resolved soft x-ray flux from an array of K-edge filtered x-ray diodes without the need for a priori assumptions about the spectrum or the geometry of the emitting volume. The mathematics of the cubic spline interpolation is discussed in detail. The analytic nature of the cubic spline solution allows for analytical error propagation, and the method of calculating the error for radiation temperature, spectral power, and confidence intervals of the unfolded spectrally resolved flux is explained. An unfold of a blackbody model demonstrates the accuracy of the cubic spline unfold. Tests of cubic spline performance using spectrally convolved detailed atomic model simulation results have been performed to measure the method's ability to conserve spectral power to within a factor of 2 or better in line-dominated regimes. The unfold is also demonstrated to work when information from the x-ray diode array is limited due to high signal-to-noise ratios or lack of signal due to over-attenuation or over-filtration of the x-ray diode signal. Here, the robustness of the unfold with respect to background subtraction and raw signal processing, signal alignment between diode traces, limited signal information, and initial conditions is discussed. Results from an example analysis of a halfraum drive are presented to demonstrate the capabilities of the unfold in comparison with previously established methods.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Measurement of branching-fraction ratios and CP asymmetries in B± → DCP±K± decays at Belle and Belle II

Abstract We report results from a study ofB ± → DK ± decays followed byDdecaying to theCP-even final stateK + K − and CP-odd final state$$ {K}_S^0{\pi}^0 $$ K S 0 π 0 , whereDis an admixture ofD 0 and$$ {\overline{D}}^0 $$ D ¯ 0 states. These decays are sensitive to the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa unitarity-triangle angleϕ 3 . The results are based on a combined analysis of the final data set of 772×10 6 $$ B\overline{B} $$ B B ¯ pairs collected by the Belle experiment and a data set of 198×10 6 $$ B\overline{B} $$ B B ¯ pairs collected by the Belle II experiment, both in electron-positron collisions at the Υ(4S) resonance. We measure the CP asymmetries to be$$ \mathcal{A} $$ A CP+ = (+12.5±5.8±1.4)% and$$ \mathcal{A} $$ A CP− = (−16.7±5.7±0.6)%, and the ratios of branching fractions to be$$ \mathcal{R} $$ R CP+ = 1.164±0.081±0.036 and$$ \mathcal{R} $$ R CP− = 1.151±0.074±0.019. The first contribution to the uncertainties is statistical, and the second is systematic. The asymmetries$$ \mathcal{A} $$ A CP+ and$$ \mathcal{A} $$ A CP− have similar magnitudes and opposite signs; their difference corresponds to 3.5 standard deviations. From these values we calculate 68.3% confidence intervals of (8.5 ° <ϕ 3 < 16.5 ° ) or (84.5 ° <ϕ 3 < 95.5 ° ) or (163.3 ° <ϕ 3 < 171.5 ° ) and 0.321 B< 0.465.

Physics↗

Holographic measurement in CFT thermofield doubles

We extend the results of arXiv:2209.12903 by studying local projective measurements performed on subregions of two copies of a CFT 2 in the thermofield double state and investigating their consequences on the bulk double-sided black hole holographic dual. We focus on CFTs defined on an infinite line and consider measurements of both finite and semi-infinite subregions. In the former case, the connectivity of the bulk spacetime is preserved after the measurement. In the latter case, the measurement of two semi-infinite intervals in one CFT or of one semi-infinite interval in each CFT can destroy the Einstein-Rosen bridge and disconnect the bulk dual spacetime. In particular, we find that a transition between a connected and disconnected phase occurs depending on the relative size of the measured and unmeasured subregions and on the specific Cardy state the measured subregions are projected on. We identify this phase transition as an entangled/disentangled phase transition of the dual CFT system by computing the post-measurement holographic entanglement entropy between the two CFTs. We also find that bulk information encoded in one CFT in the absence of measurement can sometimes be reconstructed from the other CFT when a measurement is performed, or can be erased by the measurement. Finally, we show that a purely CFT calculation of the Renyi entropy using the replica trick yields results compatible with those obtained in our bulk analysis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Introduction of the Adding and Doubling Method for Solving Bateman Equations for Nuclear Fuel Depletion

This paper introduces and evaluates the Adding and Doubling Method (ADM) for solving the Bateman equations for depletion systems with varying numbers of nuclides and compares it to the Chebyshev Rational Approximation Method (CRAM), both implemented in the reactor physics analysis application Griffin. ADM, when applied to the Crank-Nicolson Finite Difference method, can produce results comparable in accuracy and precision to CRAM with comparable run times for systems with 35 or 297 nuclides. For systems with more than 300 nuclides, the matrix-matrix operations required by ADM are significantly more costly than the matrix-vector operations required by CRAM, making CRAM the more efficient method for systems with large numbers of nuclides. ADM is an accurate method that maintains other advantages over CRAM in that it does not depend on pre-generated coefficients or require complex number operations. ADM also manages to outperform CRAM by a factor of more than 250 in terms of run time for depletion systems that require multiple Bateman solves while the depletion matrix and time step size remain constant over all depletion intervals.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Evaluating various composite sampling modes for detecting pathogenic SARS-CoV-2 virus in raw sewage

Inadequate sampling approaches to wastewater analyses can introduce biases, leading to inaccurate results such as false negatives and significant over- or underestimation of average daily viral concentrations, due to the sporadic nature of viral input. To address this challenge, we conducted a field trial within the University of Tennessee residence halls, employing different composite sampling modes that encompassed different time intervals (1 h, 2 h, 4 h, 6 h, and 24 h) across various time windows (morning, afternoon, evening, and late-night). Our primary objective was to identify the optimal approach for generating representative composite samples of SARS-CoV-2 from raw wastewater. Utilizing reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction, we quantified the levels of SARS-CoV-2 RNA and pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) RNA in raw sewage. Our findings consistently demonstrated that PMMoV RNA, an indicator virus of human fecal contamination in water environment, exhibited higher abundance and lower variability compared to pathogenic SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Significantly, both SARS-CoV-2 and PMMoV RNA exhibited greater variability in 1 h individual composite samples throughout the entire sampling period, contrasting with the stability observed in other time-based composite samples. Through a comprehensive analysis of various composite sampling modes using the Quade Nonparametric ANCOVA test with date, PMMoV concentration and site as covariates, we concluded that employing a composite sampler during a focused 6 h morning window for pathogenic SARS-CoV-2 RNA is a pragmatic and cost-effective strategy for achieving representative composite samples within a single day in wastewater-based epidemiology applications. This method has the potential to significantly enhance the accuracy and reliability of data collected at the community level, thereby contributing to more informed public health decision-making during a pandemic.

sampling timing↗

Analysis of Rig Parameter Data Using Drilling Process Modeling Constraints, Volume 1: Summary of Utah FORGE Wells 16A(78)-32, 56-32, 78B-32 and 16B(78)-32

Drill rig parameter measurements are routinely used during deep well construction to monitor and guide drilling conditions for improved performance and reduced costs. While insightful into the drilling process, these measurements are of reduced value without a standard to aid in data evaluation and decision making. In the main body of this work (Volume 1), a method is demonstrated whereby rock reduction model constraints are used to interpret drilling response parameters; the method could be applied in real-time to improve decision-making in the field and to further discern technology performance during post-drilling evaluations. Drilling parameters are evaluated using laboratory-validated rock reduction models for predicting the phenomenological response of drag bits (Detournay and Defourny, 1992) in computational algorithms. The method presented has applicability to development of advanced analytics on future geothermal wells using real-time electronic data recording for improved performance and reduced drilling costs. A drilling cost model is also used to show the tradeoff between rate of penetration and bit life and the influence on interval drilling costs. Details of the bit specifications and performance are cataloged in an independent volume, documented under separate cover, for each of the four wells, and include Volume 2: Utah FORGE 16A(78)-32; Volume 3: Utah FORGE 56-32; Volume 4: Utah FORGE 78B-32 and Volume 5: Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Radiation effects on atherosclerosis in atomic bomb survivors: a cross-sectional study using structural equation modeling

Past reports indicated that total-body irradiation at low to moderate doses could be responsible for cardiovascular disease risks, but the mechanism remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between radiation exposure and atherosclerosis, an underlying pathology of cardiovascular diseases, in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. We performed a cross-sectional study measuring 14 clinical-physiological atherosclerosis indicators during clinical exams from 2010 to 2014 in 3274 participants of the Adult Health Study cohort. Multivariable analyses were performed by using a structural equation model with latent factors representing underlying atherosclerotic pathologies: (1) arterial stiffness, (2) calcification, and (3) plaque as measured with indicators chosen a priori on the basis of clinical-physiological knowledge. Radiation was linearly associated with calcification (standardized coefficient per Gy 0.15, 95 % confidence interval: CI [0.070, 0.23]) and plaque (0.11, 95 % CI [0.029, 0.20]), small associations that were comparable to about 2 years of aging per Gy of radiation exposure, but not with arterial stiffness (0.036, 95 % CI [-0.025, 0.095]). The model fitted better and had narrower confidence intervals than separate ordinary regression models explaining individual indicators independently. The associations were less evident when the dose range was restricted to a maximum of 2 or 1 Gy. By combining individual clinical-physiological indicators that are correlated because of common, underlying atherosclerotic pathologies, we found a small, but significant association of radiation with atherosclerosis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

MOSAiC-Colorado State University Ice Spectrometer

This data set contains atmospheric ice nucleating particle (INP) measurements, using Colorado State University&rsquo;s (CSU) Ice Spectrometer (IS), of filter collections taken at the U.S. DOE ARM AMF2 site onboard the R/V Polarstern P-deck during the Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) field campaign. Samples were collected from October 27, 2019 to September 24, 2020. A filter sampler was mounted approximately 15 m above ground level on a railing in proximity to (and approximately 3 m below) the Aerosol Observation System (AOS) inlet. Single-use filter units open to the atmosphere were pre-cleaned and pre-loaded with 47-mm diameter Nuclepore polycarbonate (0.2 &micro;m pore-diameter) filters. Filters were typically drawn for a three-day period, with an average volume of air filtered of 87,000 standard liters. Total volumes were calculated through recorded daily flow rates using a mass flow meter (TSI). After collection, filters were stored and transported frozen until analysis using CSU&rsquo;s IS instrument (McCluskey et al., 2018). Aerosol particles were first re-suspended in 8 mL of 0.1 &micro;m-filtered deionized (DI) water. Aliquots of each suspension, and corresponding 11-fold dilutions, were dispensed into polymerase chain reaction (PCR) trays and placed into the aluminum blocks of the IS. Samples were cooled at approximately 0.33 &deg;C min -1 and freezing detected optically with corresponding temperatures recorded. Cumulative INP concentrations were determined through calculating the number of INPs per mL of suspension (Vali, 1971) and converting to concentration per standard L of air by accounting for the proportion of liquid used and volume of air collected. All samples were corrected for the number of INPs on the average of four field blanks (cleaned, handled, transported, and analyzed in the same way without air flow). Two-tailed, 95% confidence intervals for binomial sampling are provided (Agresti and Coull, 1998). Select samples were also heat treated (95 &deg;C for 20 min) to denature and deactivate biological INPs present and digested in 10% H 2 O 2 at 95 &deg;C under UV-B for 20 min to remove any organic carbon INPs. Agresti, A, and BA Coull. 1998. "Approximate is better than &ldquo;exact&rdquo; for interval estimation of binomial proportions." American Statistics 52: 119&ndash;126. https://doi.org/10.2307/2685469 McCluskey, CS, J Ovadnevaite, M Rinaldi, J Atkinson, F Belosi, D Ceburnis, &hellip; and PJ DeMott. 2018. "Marine and Terrestrial Organic Ice-Nucleating Particles in Pristine Marine to Continentally Influenced Northeast Atlantic Air Masses." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 123 (11): 6196&ndash;6212, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028033 Vali, G. 1971. "Quantitative Evaluation of Experimental Results and the Heterogeneous Freezing Nucleation of Supercooled Liquids." Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 28: 402-209. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<0402:QEOERA>2.0.CO;2

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Draft ASME Code Case to qualify L-PBF 316H material for Section III, Division 5 applications

This report documents the AMMT program’s development and submission of a draft ASME Code Case to qualify Laser Powder Bed Fusion (L PBF) Type 316H stainless steel for Section III, Divi-sion 5 Class A and SM high temperature nuclear applications. It summarizes the technical basis, the comprehensive high temperature mechanical test database assembled between 2023–2026, and the proposed code language and qualification framework submitted to ASME. The work was co-ordinated across multiple national laboratories and leverages prior ASME efforts to integrate additive manufacturing into the Boiler & Pressure Vessel Code. The body of the report describes the experimental database and analysis supporting the Code Case: tensile, creep, fatigue, creep fatigue, and thermal aging tests collected from multiple additive manufacturing sites, machine types, and powder lots, with material processed by a solution anneal heat treatment. The dataset — including both full size and subsized specimens and tests oriented parallel and perpendicular to build direction — shows limited tensile anisotropy, tensile properties comparable to wrought 316H, creep strength within the scatter of wrought material, but markedly reduced creep ductility above about 650 °C associated with rapid σ phase formation in L PBF microstructures. The draft Code Case itself prescribes a staged qualification model (manufacturing process qualification, component qualification, and per build witness testing), treats L PBF components as equivalent to Type 316 weld metal for design and inspection, and requires mechanical, chemical, and metallographic controls tied to ASTM/ISO 52946. Key acceptance criteria include tensile tests within a 90% prediction interval of the AMMT dataset, a creep fatigue screening test adapted from ASME Section III, Division 5, Subsection HB, HBB 2800 but with the cycle acceptance reduced to 100 for L PBF material, and double volumetric inspection of production components. The report concludes that the present data support treating L PBF 316H as analogous to conventional fusion weld metal for Division 5 design and inspection, while highlighting important caveats: the σ phase driven loss of creep ductility above ~650 °C, preliminary indications of enhanced creep fatigue sensitivity in some lots, and remaining gaps in long term aging and additional cyclic testing. Recommended next actions include completing outstanding cyclic and long duration creep/aging tests on the solution annealed condition, supporting inclusion of the 316H chemistry and heat treatment in ASTM/ISO 52946, and continuing engagement with ASME and NRC during balloting and review to enable industry adoption.

Messner, Mark C. (ORCID:0000000200404385)↗

VLBI Data Processing on Coronal Radio-sounding Experiments of Mars Express

The ESA’s Mars Express solar corona experiments were performed at two solar conjunctions in the years 2015 and 2017 by a number of radio telescopes in the European VLBI Network. This paper presents the methods to measure the frequency and phase fluctuations of the spacecraft radio signal, and the applications to study the characteristics of the plasma turbulence effects on the signal at a single station and at multiple stations via cross correlation. The power spectra of the frequency fluctuations observed between 4.9 and 76.3 R {sub s} have a power-law shape close to a Kolmogorov spectrum over the frequency interval ν {sub lo} < ν < ν {sub up}, where the nominal value of ν {sub lo} is set to 3 mHz and ν {sub up} is in the range of 0.03–0.15 Hz. The rms of the frequency fluctuations is presented as a function of the heliocentric distance. Furthermore, we analyze the variations of the electron column density fluctuations at solar offsets 4.9 R {sub s} and 9.9 R {sub s} and the cross-correlation products between the VLBI stations. The power density of the differential fluctuations between different stations decreases at ν < 0.01 Hz. Finally, the fast flow speeds of solar wind >700 km s{sup -1} are derived from the cross correlation of frequency fluctuations at ν < 0.01 Hz. The fast flow speeds of solar wind correspond to the high heliolatitude of the coronal region that the radio rays passed. The VLBI observations and analysis methods can be used to study the electron column density fluctuations and the turbulence at multiple spatial points in the inner solar wind by providing multiple lines of sight between the Earth and the spacecraft.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Missing-Data Nonparametric Coherency Estimation

Chave recently proposed an estimator for multitaper spectral density where the time series contains missing values. In this article we generalize this technique to a multitaper estimator of coherence and phase and show that one can also obtain bootstrapped confidence intervals. Additionally, we give two examples. The first is a toy example in which the true coherence is known. In the second example we show that the multitaper missing-data coherence estimator computed on real data with a single gap comprising 11% of the data outperforms the Daniell-smoothed coherence estimator where there are no gaps. The case where the two time series have different missing indices is also discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Scalable in situ non-destructive evaluation of additively manufactured components using process monitoring, sensor fusion, and machine learning

Laser Powder Bed Fusion (L-PBF) Additive Manufacturing (AM) is among the metal 3D printing technologies most broadly adopted by the manufacturing industry. However, the current industry qualification paradigm for critical-application L-PBF parts relies heavily on expensive non-destructive inspection techniques, which significantly limits the use-cases of L-PBF. In situ monitoring of the process promises a less expensive alternative to ex situ testing, but existing sensor technologies and data analysis techniques struggle to detect sub-surface flaws (e.g., porosity and cracking) on production-scale L-PBF printers. In this work, an in situ NDE (INDE) system was engineered to detect subsurface flaws detected in X-Ray Computed Tomography (XCT) directly from process monitoring data. A multilayer, multimodal data input allowed the INDE system to detect numerous subsurface flaws in the size range of 200–1000µm using a novel human-in-the-loop annotation procedure. Furthermore, a framework was established for generating probability-of-detection (POD) and probability-of-false-alarm (PFA) curves compliant with NDE standards by systematically comparing instances of detected subsurface flaws to post-build XCT data. Here, we also introduce for the first time in the AM in situ sensing literature the a 90/95 – the flaw size corresponding to a 90% detection rate on the lower 95% confidence interval of the POD curve. The INDE system successfully demonstrated POD capabilities commensurate with traditional NDE methods. Traditional ML performance metrics were also shown to be inadequate for assessing the ability of the INDE system’s flaw detection performance. It is the hope of the authors that future studies will adopt the POD and PFA approach outlined here to provide better insight into the utility of process monitoring for AM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Sensitivity of Variational Bayesian Neural Network Performance to Hyperparameters

In scientific applications, predictive modeling is often of limited use without accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) to indicate when a model may be extrapolating or when more data needs to be collected. Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) produce predictive uncertainty by propagating uncertainty in neural network (NN) weights and offer the promise of obtaining not only an accurate predictive model but also accurate UQ. However, in practice, obtaining accurate UQ with BNNs is difficult due in part to the approximations used for model training (such as those made in variational inference) and in part to the need to choose a suitable set of hyperparameters; these hyperparameters outnumber those needed for traditional NNs and often have opaque effects on the results. We aim to shed light on the effects of hyperparameter choices for variational BNNs by performing a global sensitivity analysis of variational BNN performance under varying hyperparameter settings. Our results indicate that many of the hyperparameters interact with each other to affect both predictive accuracy and UQ. For improved usage of variational BNNs in real-world applications, we suggest that thorough hyperparameter tuning, including tuning of prior hyperparameters and loss function parameters, is essential for accurate UQ in variational BNNs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Microbial abundances and carbon use under ambient temperature or experimental warming in a southern boreal peatland

Abstract Organic peat soils occupy relatively little of the global land surface area but store vast amounts of soil carbon in northern latitudes where climate is warming at a rapid pace. Warming may result in strong positive feedbacks of carbon loss and global climate change driven by microbial processes if warming alters the balance between primary productivity and decomposition. To elucidate effects of warming on the microbial communities mediating peat carbon dynamics, we explored the abundance of broad microbial groups and their source of carbon (i.e. old carbon versus more recently fixed photosynthate) using microbial lipid analysis (δ 13 C PLFA) of peat samples under ambient temperatures and before/after initiation of experimental peat warming (+ 2.25, + 4.5, + 6.75, and + 9 °C). This analysis occurred over a profile to 2 m depth in an undrained, ombrotrophic peat bog in northern Minnesota. We found that the total microbial biomass and individual indicator lipid abundances were stratified by depth and strongly correlated to temperature under ambient conditions. However, under experimental warming, statistically significant effects of temperature on the microbial community were sporadic and inconsistent. For example, 3 months after experimental warming the relative abundance of Gram-negative bacterial indicators across depth combined and > 50 cm depth and Gram-positive bacterial indicators at 20–50 cm depth showed significant positive relationships to temperature. At that same timepoint, however, the relative abundance of Actinobacterial indicators across depth showed a significant negative relationship to temperature. After 10 months of experimental warming, the relative abundance of fungal biomarkers was positively related to temperature in all depths combined, and the absolute abundance of anaerobic bacteria declined with increasing temperature in the 20–50 cm depth interval. The lack of observed response in the broader microbial community may suggest that at least initially, microbial community structure with peat depth in these peatlands is driven more by bulk density and soil water content than temperature. Alternatively, the lack of broad microbial community response may simply represent a lag period, with more change to come in the future. The long-term trajectory of microbial response to warming in this ecosystem then could either be direct, after this initial lag time, or indirect through other physical or biogeochemical changes in the peat profile. These initial results provide an important baseline against which to measure long-term microbial community and carbon-cycling responses to warming and elevated CO 2 .

Felice, Mark↗

An analysis of Bayesian estimates for missing higher orders in perturbative calculations

With current high precision collider data, the reliable estimation of theoretical uncertainties due to missing higher orders (MHOs) in perturbation theory has become a pressing issue for collider phenomenology. Traditionally, the size of the MHOs is estimated through scale variation, a simple but ad hoc method without probabilistic interpretation. Bayesian approaches provide a compelling alternative to estimate the size of the MHOs, but it is not clear how to interpret the perturbative scales, like the factorisation and renormalisation scales, in a Bayesian framework. Recently, it was proposed that the scales can be incorporated as hidden parameters into a Bayesian model. In this paper, we thoroughly scrutinise Bayesian approaches to MHO estimation and systematically study the performance of different models on an extensive set of high-order calculations. We extend the framework in two significant ways. First, we define a new model that allows for asymmetric probability distributions. Second, we introduce a prescription to incorporate information on perturbative scales without interpreting them as hidden model parameters. We clarify how the two scale prescriptions bias the result towards specific scale choice, and we discuss and compare different Bayesian MHO estimates among themselves and to the traditional scale variation approach. Finally, we provide a practical prescription of how existing perturbative results at the standard scale variation points can be converted to 68%/95% credibility intervals in the Bayesian approach using the new public code MiHO.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗