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NASA NTRS1998

LASE measurements of convective boundary layer development during SGP97

The Southern Great Plains 1997 (SGP97) field experiment was conducted in Oklahoma during June-July 1997 to validate the models used for computing remote soil moisture using measurements by microwave radiometers. One of the objectives of SGP97 was to examine the effect of soil moisture on the evolution of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) and clouds over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) during the warm season. The LASE (Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment) airborne DIAL (Differential Absorption Lidar) system, which was flown autonomously on the NASA ER-2 aircraft during previous missions, was reconfigured to fly on the NASA P3 research aircraft. During SGP97 LASE was used to study the morning evolution of the ABL, particularly as manifested in the development of the convective boundary layer, and to study the influence of soil moisture variations on the development of ABL. The ABL development is strongly influenced by the surface energy budget, which is in turn influenced by soil moisture, mesoscale meteorology, clouds, and solar insolation. LASE data acquired during this mission are being used to study the ABL water vapor budget, the development of the ABL, spatial and temporal variabilities in the ABL, and the meteorological factors that influence the ABL development. This field experiment also permitted comparisons of LASE water vapor measurements with water vapor profiles acquired by radiosondes launched at the DOE (Department of Energy) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plain (SGP) site and at NASA/Wallops Flight Facility, as well as with measurements from other SGP97 aircraft.

Ismail, Syed↗

NASA NTRS1998

Antiphasing Between Rainfall in Africa's Rift Valley and North America's Great Basin

The beginning of the Bolling-Allerod warm period is marked in Greenland ice by an abrupt rise in (Delta)O-18, an abrupt drop in dust rain, and an abrupt increase in atmospheric methane content. The surface waters in the Norwegian Sea underwent a simultaneous abrupt warming. At about this time, a major change in the pattern of global rainfall occurred. Lake Victoria (latitude 0deg), which prior to this time was dry, was rejuvenated. The Red Sea, which prior to this time was hypersaline, freshened. Lake Lahontan, which prior to this time had achieved its largest size, desiccated. Whereas the chronologic support for the abruptness of the hydrologic changes is firm only for the Red Sea, in keeping with evidence obtained well away from the nor-them Atlantic in the Santa Barbara basin and the Cariaco Trench, the onset and end of the millennial-duration climate events were globally abrupt. If so, the proposed linkage between the size of African closed basin lakes and insolation cycles must be reexamined.

Broecker, Wallace S.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Climate-Rotation Feedback on Mars

It has long been appreciated that changes in the orbital and rotational geometry of Mars will influence the seasonal and latitudinal pattern of insolation [1-5], and this will likely dominate climatic fluctuations on time scales of 101 to 107 years [6-9]. Equally important, but less widely appreciated, is the influence climatic change can have on rotational dynamics. The primary means by which climate influences rotation is via its influence on transport of mass (volatiles and dust) into and out of the polar regions. Both the rate and direction of Mars rotation can be changed by these mass fluxes, but only the directional changes are climatically relevant.

Bils, Bruce G.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Climate-Rotation Feedback on Mars

It has long been understood that changes in the orbital and rotational geometry of Mars will influence the seasonal and latitudinal pattern of insolation, and this will likely dominate climatic fluctuations on timescales of 105 to 107 yr [6-91. Equally important, but less widely appreciated, is the influence climatic change can have on rotational dynamics. The primary means by which climate influences rotation is via its influence on transport of mass (volatiles and dust) into and out of the polar regions. Both the rate and direction of Mars rotation can be changed by these mass fluxes, but only the directional changes are climatically relevant.

Bills, B. G.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Topography of the South Polar Cap and Layered Deposits of Mars: Viking Stereo Grametry at Regional and Local Scales

Layered deposits and residual polar caps on Mars may record the deposition of ice and sediment modulated by periodic climate change. Topographic information relating to layer thicknesses, erosional processes, and formation of dark spirals within these deposits has been sparce or unreliable until the arrival of MOLA in orbit in September 1997. To assist in evaluating these terrains prior to launch and to assess formation and erosion processes in the polar deposits, we have assembled Viking stereo mosaics of the region and have produced the first reliable DEM models of the south polar deposits using automated stereogrammetry tools. Here we report our preliminary topographic results, pending final image pointing updates. The maximum total thickness of the layered deposits in the south polar region is 2.5 km. The thick layered deposits consist of a series of megaterraces. Each terrace is several tens of kilometers wide and is flat or slopes very gently toward the pole. These terraces step downward from a central plateau near the south pole. Terraces are bounded by relatively steep scarps 100-500 meters high that face toward the equator. These scarps correspond to the pattern of dark spirals observed within the residual cap in southern summer, and are interpreted as ice or frost-free surfaces warmed by solar insolation. Several tongue-shaped troughs, with rounded cirquelike heads, are observed near the margins of the deposit. These troughs are 300-600 meters in deep and may be similar to troughs observed in the northern polar deposit.

Schenk, P.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Real-Time Assimilation of Goes-Derived Products into A Mesoscale Model and It's Impact on Short-Term (06-36hr) Forecasts from 17 October 1998 through the Present

As the parameterizations of surface energy budgets in regional models have become more complete physically, models have the potential to be much more realistic in simulations of coupling between surface radiation, hydrology, and surface energy transfer. Realizing the importance of properly specifying the surface energy budget, many institutions are using land-surface models to represent the lower boundary forcing associated with biophysical processes and soil hydrology. However, the added degrees of freedom due to inclusion of such land-surface schemes require the specification of additional parameters within the model system such as vegetative resistances, green vegetation fraction, leaf area index, soil physical and hydraulic characteristics, stream flow, runoff, and the vertical distribution of soil moisture. Spatial heterogeneity of these parameters makes correct specification problematic since measurements are not routinely available. A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-IR skin temperature tendencies, solar insolation, and surface albedo into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. The technique has been successfully employed in a number of mesoscale models in case-study mode. We have taken the next step and developed a study to determine if assimilating these types of data into mesoscale models in real-time can improve short-term (648h) forecasts of temperature, relative humidity, and QPF on a daily basis over relatively large regions. Therefore, an operational modeling/assimilation system has been developed at the GHCC during the past summer that allows us to produce simulations out to 48 hours in a timely manor. The PSU/NCAR MM5 is used in a nested configuration with a 25 km grid covering the southeastern third of the US. The model has been on-line since 1 July 1998 and forecast products are posted on our web site. The satellite algorithms that generate data to be assimilated came on-line 17 October 1998. Quantitative assessment of the forecast quality is performed via traditional verification statistics. In addition, invaluable qualitative information is obtained through close collaboration with several NWSFO's who are using the MM5 products in real-time on a daily basis. The assimilation technique has been applied in an off-line mode since 17 October. Results based on bulk statistical verification of surface meteorology over the entire Southeastern US show that assimilating the GOES-derived land surface tendencies and solar radiation results in a significant reduction of the shelter air temperature and RH bias on a daily basis. In fact, the assimilation technique has produced improved temperature and RH forecasts for 97% of the 100 simulations performed to date. Work is currently underway to determine the sensitivity of the assimilation procedure to the availability of satellite data, length of assimilation period, model initialization, and synoptic-scale meteorological conditions. In addition, results from a detailed energy budget analysis using the Early Eta, our operational MM5, and the assimilation runs will help us to better understand the satellite assimilation the land-surface energy budge. Research during the spring-summer of 1999 will focus on the impact of the assimilation technique during the warm season where it is hypothesized that it can have a positive impact on QPF during conditions of weak synoptic-scale forcing.

Lapenta, William M.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Climate Rotation Feedback on Mars

It has long been appreciated that changes in the orbital and rotational geometry of Mars will influence the seasonal and latitudinal pattern of insolation [1-5], and this will likely dominate climatic fluctuations on time scales of 101 to 107 years (6-9]. Equally important, but less widely appreciated, is the influence climatic change can have on rotational dynamics. The primary means by which climate influences rotation is via its influence on transport of mass (volatiles and dust) into and out of the polar regions. Both the rate and direction of Mars rotation can be changed by these mass fluxes, but only the directional changes are climatically relevant.

Bills, Bruce G.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Climate-Rotation Feedback on Mars

A new model is presented for the coupled evolution of climate and rotation, as applied to Mars. It has long been appreciated that changes in the orbital and rotational geometry of Mars will influence the seasonal and latitudinal pattern of insolation [1-5], and this will likely dominate climatic fluctuations on time scales of 10(exp 5) to 10(exp 7) years [6-9]. Equally important, but less widely appreciated, is the influence climatic change can have on rotational dynamics. The primary means by which climate influences rotation is via its influence on transport of mass (volatiles and dust) into and out of the polar regions. Many important issues remain unresolved: What are the ages of the polar caps? What climatic periods are recorded in the polar layered deposits? What is the long term obliquity history?

Bills, Bruce G.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Solar Energy Economics Revisited: The Promise and Challenge of Orbiting Reflectors for World Energy Supply

A system of orbiting, large-area, low mass density reflector satellites which provide nearly continuous solar energy to a world-distributed set of conversion sites is examined under the criteria for any potential new energy system: technical feasibility, significant and renewable energy impact, economic feasibility and social/political acceptability. Although many technical issues need further study, reasonable advances in space technology appear sufficient to implement the system. The enhanced insolation is shown to greatly improve the economic competitiveness of solar-electric generation to circa 1995 fossil/nuclear alternatives. The system is shown to have the potential for supplying a significant fraction of future domestic and world energy needs. Finally, the environmental and social issues, including a means for financing such a large shift to a world solar energy dependence, is addressed.

Billman, Kenneth W.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Operational Assimilation of GOES Data into a Mesoscale Model

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite- observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The technique has been employed on a semi-operational basis at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center (GHCC) within the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) since 1 November 1998. We performed the assimilation on a model grid centered over the Southeastern US. In addition, a control run without assimilation was performed to provide insight into the performance of the assimilation technique. Bulk verification statistics (BIAS and RMSE) of surface air temperature and relative humidity of more than 250 case days has been performed to date. Results show that assimilation of the satellite data results reduces both the bias and RMSE for simulations of surface air temperature and relative humidity. We are working with forecasters at the National Weather Service Forecast Office located in Birmingham, AL to evaluate the impact of the assimilation on precipitation forecasts. In addition, work is currently underway to determine the ability of both the assimilation technique and Early Eta to sense the significant changes that occur in both leaf expansion and soil moisture conditions during the Spring-Summer of 1999. This will be accomplished via examination of the simulated surface energy budgets from both modeling systems.

Lapenta, William↗

NASA NTRS1999

Simulated Surface Energy Budgets Over the Southeastern US: The GHCC Satellite Assimilation System and the NCEP Early Eta

Lapenta, William M.↗

NASA NTRS2000

The State and Future of Mars Polar Science and Exploration

As the planet's principal cold traps, the martian polar regions have accumulated extensive mantles of ice and dust that cover individual areas of approx. 10(exp 6)sq km and total as much as 3-4 km thick. From the scarcity of superposed craters on their surface, these layered deposits are thought to he comparatively young-preserving a record of the seasonal and climatic cycling of atmospheric CO2, H2O, and dust over the past approx. 10(exp 5)-10(exp 8) years. For this reason, the martian polar deposits may serve as a Rosetta Stone for understanding the geologic and climatic history of the planet-documenting variations in insolation (due to quasiperiodic oscillations in the planet's obliquity and orbital elements), volatile mass balance, atmospheric composition, dust storm activity, volcanic eruptions, large impacts, catastrophic floods, solar luminosity, supernovae, and perhaps even a record of microbial life. Beyond their scientific value, the polar regions may soon prove important for another reason-providing a valuable and accessible reservoir of water to support the long-term human exploration of Mars. In this paper we assess the current state of Mars polar research, identify the key questions that motivate the exploration of the polar regions, discuss the extent to which current missions will address these questions, and speculate about what additional capabilities and investigations may be required to address the issues that remain outstanding.

Clifford, Stephen M.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Climate-Rotation Feedback on Mars

A new model is presented for the coupled evolution of climate and rotation, as applied to Mars. It has long been appreciated that changes in the orbital and rotational geometry of Mars will influence the seasonal and latitudinal pattern of insolation, and this will likely dominate climatic fluctuations on time scales of 10(exp 5) to 10(exp 7) years. Equally important, but less widely appreciated, is the influence climatic change can have on rotational dynamics. The primary means by which climate influences rotation is via its influence on transport of mass (volatiles and dust) into and out of the polar regions. Many important issues remain unresolved: What are the ages of the polar caps? What climatic periods are recorded in the polar layered deposits? What is the long term obliquity history? Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Bills, Bruce G.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Atmospheric Energy Limits on Subsurface Life on Mars

It has been suggested that the terrestrial biomass of subterranean organisms may equal or exceed that at the surface. Taken as a group, these organisms can live in heavily saline conditions at temperatures from 115 C to as low as -20 C. Such conditions might exist on Mars beneath the surface oxidant in an aquifer or hydrothermal system, where the surrounding rock would also protect against the solar ultraviolet radiation. The way that such systems could obtain energy and carbon is not completely clear, although it is believed that on Earth, energy flows from the interaction of highly reduced basalt with groundwater produce H2, while carbon is derived from CO2 dissolved in the groundwater. Another potential source is the Martian atmosphere, acting as a photochemical conduit of solar insolation.

Weiss, B. P.↗

NASA NTRS2000

The Evolution and Disruption of Planetary Systems

Planetary systems that encounter passing stars can experience severe orbital disruption, and the efficiency of this process is greatly enhanced when the impinging systems are binary pairs rather than single stars. Using a Monte Carlo approach, we have performed nearly half a million numerical experiments to examine the long term ramifications of planetary scattering on planetary systems. We have concluded that systems which form in dense environments such as Orion's Trapezium cluster have roughly a ten percent chance of being seriously disrupted. We have also used our programs to explore the long-term prospects for our own Solar system. Given the current interstellar environment, we have computed the odds that Earth will find its orbit seriously disrupted prior to the emergence of a runaway greenhouse effect driven by the Sun's increasing luminosity. This estimate includes both direct disruption events and scattering processes that seriously alter the orbits of the Jovian planets, which then force severe changes upon the Earth's orbit. We then explore the consequences of the Earth being thrown into deep space. The surface biosphere would rapidly shut down under conditions of zero insolation, but the Earth's radioactive heat is capable of maintaining life deep underground, and perhaps in hydrothermal vent communities, for some time to come. Although unlikely for the Earth, this scenario may be common throughout the universe, since many environments where liquid water could exist (e.g., Europa and Callisto) must derive their energy from internal (rather than external) heating.

Laughlin, Gregory↗

NASA NTRS2000

Physical Activity and Bone Density in Women

A mathematical model of bone density regulation as a function of the daily tissue "effective" stress has been derived. Using the model, the influence of daily activity in the form of a daily loading history has been related to bone density of the calcaneus. The theory incorporates a stress exponent m to account for differences in the importance of magnitude and number of load cycles experienced during daily activity. We have derived a parameter from the model, the "Bone Density Index" (BDI). We have developed a method of collecting daily habitual loading histories using an insole force sensor interfaced to a portable digital data logger carried in a fanny pack. Our goal for this study was to determine a stress exponent, m, relating GRFz history to Calcaneal Bone Mineral Density (CBMD).

Bowley, Susan M.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Use of Geostationary Satellite Data to Force Land Surface Schemes within Atmospheric Mesoscale Models

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite-observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The technique has been employed on a semi-operational basis at the GHCC within the PSU/NCAR MM5. Assimilation has been performed on a grid centered over the Southeastern US since November 1998. Results from the past year show that assimilation of the satellite data reduces both the bias and RMSE for simulations of surface air temperature and relative humidity. These findings are based on comparison of assimilation runs with a control using the simple 5-layer soil model available in MM5. A significant development in the past several months was the inclusion of the detailed Oregon State University land surface model (OSU/LSM) as an option within MM5. One of our working hypotheses has been that the assimilation technique, although simple, may provide better short-term forecasts than a detailed LSM that requires significant number initialized parameters. Preliminary results indicate that the assimilation out performs the OSU/LSM as it is incorporated in MM5. Details will be presented at the symposium.

Lapenta, William M.↗

NASA NTRS2000

In-Situ Environmental Measurements Needed for Future Mars Missions

Existing measurements and modeling studies indicate that the climate and general circulation of the thin, predominately CO2 Martian atmosphere are characterized by large-amplitude variations with a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Remote sensing observations from Earth-based telescopes and the Mariner 9, Viking, Phobos, and Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) orbiters show that the prevailing climate includes large-scale seasonal variations in surface and atmospheric temperatures (140 to 300 K), dust optical depth (0.15 to 1), and water vapor (10 to 100 precipitable microns). These observations also provided the first evidence for episodic regional and global dust storms that produce even larger perturbations in the atmospheric thermal structure and general circulation. In-situ measurements by the Viking and Mars Pathfinder Landers reinforced these conclusions, documenting changes in the atmospheric pressure on diurnal (5%) and seasonal (>20%) time scales, as well as large diurnal variations in the near-surface temperature (40 to 70 K), wind velocity (0 to 35 m/s), and dust optical depth (0.3 to 6). These in-situ measurements also reveal phenomena with temporal and spatial scales that cannot be resolved from orbit, including rapid changes in near-surface temperatures (+/- 10 K in 10 seconds), large near-surface vertical temperature gradients (+/- 15 K/meter), diurnally-varying slope winds, and dust devils . Modeling studies indicate that these changes are forced primarily by diurnal and seasonal variations in solar insolation, but they also include contributions from atmospheric thermal tides, baroclinic waves (fronts), Kelvin waves, slope winds, and monsoonal flows from the polar caps.

Crisp, D.↗