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At least 469 records · Page 26

Effects of the Venusian atmosphere on incoming meteoroids and the impact crater population

The dense atmosphere on Venus prevents craters smaller than about 2 km in daimater from forming and also causes formation of several crater fields and multiple-floored craters (collectively referred to as multiple impacts). A model has been constructed that simulates the behavior of a meteoroid in a dense planetary atmosphere. This model was then combined with an assumed flux of incoming meteoroids in an effort to reproduce the size-frequency distribution of impact craters and several aspects of the population of the crater fields and multiple-floored craters on Venus. The modeling indicates that it is plausible that the observed rollover in the size-frequency curve for Venus is due entirely to atmospheric effects on incoming meteoroids. However, there must be substantial variation in the density and behavior of incoming meteoroids in the atmosphere. Lower-density meteoroids must be less likely to survive atmospheric passage than simple density differences can account for. Consequently, it is likely that the percentage of craters formed by high-density meteoroids is very high at small crater diameters, and this percentage decreases substantially with increasing crater diameter. Overall, high-density meteoroids created a disproportionately large percentage of the impact craters on Venus. Also, our results indicate that a process such as meteoroid flattening or atmospheric explosion of meteoroids must be invoked to prevent craters smaller than the observed minimum diameter (2 km) from forming. In terms of using the size-frequency distribution to age-date the surface, the model indicates that the observed population has at least 75% of the craters over 32 km in diameter that would be expected on an atmosphereless Venus; thus, this part of the curve is most suitable for comparison with calibrated curves for the Moon.

Herrick, Robert R.↗

Toward Failure Modeling In Complex Dynamic Systems: Impact of Design and Manufacturing Variations

When designing vehicle vibration monitoring systems for aerospace devices, it is common to use well-established models of vibration features to determine whether failures or defects exist. Most of the algorithms used for failure detection rely on these models to detect significant changes during a flight environment. In actual practice, however, most vehicle vibration monitoring systems are corrupted by high rates of false alarms and missed detections. Research conducted at the NASA Ames Research Center has determined that a major reason for the high rates of false alarms and missed detections is the numerous sources of statistical variations that are not taken into account in the. modeling assumptions. In this paper, we address one such source of variations, namely, those caused during the design and manufacturing of rotating machinery components that make up aerospace systems. We present a novel way of modeling the vibration response by including design variations via probabilistic methods. The results demonstrate initial feasibility of the method, showing great promise in developing a general methodology for designing more accurate aerospace vehicle vibration monitoring systems.

Tumer, Irem Y.↗

Atmospheric Fragmentation of the Canyon Diablo Meteoroid

About 50 kyr ago the impact of an iron meteoroid excavated Meteor Crater, Arizona, the first terrestrial structure widely recognized as a meteorite impact crater. Recent studies of ballistically dispersed impact melts from Meteor Crater indicate a compositionally unusually heterogeneous impact melt with high SiO2 and exceptionally high (10 to 25% on average) levels of projectile contamination. These are observations that must be explained by any theoretical modeling of the impact event. Simple atmospheric entry models for an iron meteorite similar to Canyon Diablo indicate that the surface impact speed should have been around 12 km/s [Melosh, personal comm.], not the 15-20 km/s generally assumed in previous impact models. This may help explaining the unusual characteristics of the impact melt at Meteor Crater. We present alternative initial estimates of the motion in the atmosphere of an iron projectile similar to Canyon Diablo, to constraint the initial conditions of the impact event that generated Meteor Crater.

Pierazzo, E.↗

(abstract)Electron Impact Emission Cross Sections for Modeling UV Auroral and Dayglow Observations of the Upper Atmospheres of Planets

In the upper atmospheres of the Jovian and Terrestrial planets a dominant mechanism for energy transfer occurs through electron collisional processes with neutral species leading to UV radiation. In response to the need for accurate collision cross sections to model spectroscopic observations of planetary systems, JPL has measured in the laboratory emission cross sections and medium resolution spectra of H, H(sub 2), N(sub 2), SO(sub 2), and other important planetary gases.Voyager and International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) spacecraft have established that band systems of H(sub 2) and N(sub 2) are the dominant UV molecular emissions in the solar system produced by electron impact. Applications of our data to models of Voyager, IUE, Galileo, and Hubble Space Telescope observations of the planets will be described.

molecular emissions↗

Accurate Modeling of Lyα Profiles and their Impact on Photolysis of Terrestrial Planet Atmospheres

Accurately measuring and modeling the Lyα (Lyα; λ1215.67 Å) emission line from low-mass stars is vital for our ability to build predictive high energy stellar spectra, yet interstellar medium (ISM) absorption of this line typically prevents model-measurement comparisons. Lyα also controls the photodissociation of important molecules, like water and methane, in exoplanet atmospheres such that any photochemical models assessing potential biosignatures or atmospheric abundances require accurate Lyα host star flux estimates. Recent observations of three early M and K stars (K3, M0, M1) with exceptionally high radial velocities (>100 km s −1 ) reveal the intrinsic profiles of these types of stars as most of their Lyα flux is shifted away from the geocoronal line core and contamination from the ISM. These observations indicate that previous stellar spectra computed with the PHOENIX atmosphere code have underpredicted the core of Lyα in these types of stars. With these observations, we have been able to better understand the microphysics in the upper atmosphere and improve the predictive capabilities of the PHOENIX atmosphere code. Since these wavelengths drive the photolysis of key molecular species, we also present results analyzing the impact of the resulting changes to the synthetic stellar spectra on observable chemistry in terrestrial planet atmospheres.

Sarah Peacock↗

Global Gridded Crop Models Underestimate Yield Responses to Droughts and Heatwaves

Extreme events can lead to crop yield declines, resulting in financial losses and threats to food security, and the frequency and intensity of such events is projected to increase. As global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are commonly used to assess climate change impacts on agricultural yields, there is a need to understand whether these models are able to reproduce the observed yield declines. We evaluated 13 GGCMs from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and compared observed and simulated impact of past droughts and heatwaves on yields for four crops (maize, rice, soy, wheat). We found that most models detect but underestimate the impact of droughts and heatwaves on yield. Specifically, the drought signal was detected by 12 of 13 models for maize and all models for wheat, while the heat signal was detected by eleven models for maize and six models for wheat. To investigate whether the difference between simulated and observed yield declines is due to a misrepresentation of simulated exposure to heat or water scarcity (i.e. misrepresentation of growing season), we analysed the relationship between average discrepancies between observed and simulated yield losses, and average simulated exposure to extreme weather conditions across all crop models. We found a positive correlation between simulated exposure to heat and model performance for heatwaves, but found no correlation for droughts. This suggests that there is a systematic underestimation of yield responses to heat and drought and not only a misrepresentation of exposure. Assuming that performance for the past indicates models' capacity to project future yield impacts, models likely underestimate future yield decline from climate change. High-quality temporally and spatially resolved observational data on growing seasons will be highly valuable to further improve crop models' capacity to adequately respond to extreme weather events.

extreme events↗

Issues in Space Radiation Protection: Galactic Cosmic Rays

With shielding from cosmic heavy ions, one is faced with limited knowledge about the physical properties and biological responses of these radiations. Herein, the current status of space shielding technology and its impact on radiation health is discussed in terms of conventional protection practice and a test biological response model. The impact of biological response on optimum materials selection for cosmic ray shielding is presented in terms of the transmission characteristics of the shield material. Although liquid hydrogen gas is an optimum shield material, evaluation of the effectiveness of polymeric structural materials must await improvement in our knowledge of both the biological response and the nuclear processes.

Wilson, J. W.↗

Applying NASA-STD-7009 Standard for Models and Simulations to Surrogate and Other Statistical Models

NASA-STD-7009A, Standard for Models and Simulations, contains a worthy and insightfully-crafted credibility assessment. That set of metrics is intended to accumulate and communicate information that can be critical for users and their customers in evaluating findings due to a model or simulation. Was the model designed for the present use? Is it validated in the domain it’s being applied to? And so on. The standard was originally focused on physics-based models, but it can be applied more generally. It can – and should – be applied to high-impact statistical models, including surrogate models based on larger models and sims and regression models based directly on data. A key issue with many of such models is their relative simplicity compared to most M&S despite their use in high-risk engineering decisions. This report will make a case for using this Standard for a wider class of models, and how it might actually add value in excess of its cost for not only stakeholders, but modelers themselves. A rough example showing compliance for a statistical model is included.

K L Johnson↗

Upper Arctic Ocean Properties and Relationships with Sea Ice in CMIP6 Historical Simulations

While current-generation CMIP and OMIP models have clear biases in their upper Arctic Ocean hydrography, it is less clear how these biases impact the models' ability to simulate the observed Arctic sea ice mean state and trends. In this study we seek to quantify cross-relationship between sea ice and ocean states in CMIP6 historical simulations and identify common model behaviors. Multi-model mean (MMM) simulations exhibit accelerated changes in the ice and ocean system since the late 20th century. Underlying the MMM is strong inter-model variation in the simulated ice and ocean mean states and their temporal variability including trends. Despite such inter-model differences, all models show a similar ratio between sea ice reduction and upper ocean warming such that models with higher ocean warming also have higher SIE reduction and vice versa. Our results also highlight the urgent needs of reliable Arctic Ocean observations or data products in order to better contextualize modeling results.

Upper Arctic Ocean↗

Comparison of Aircraft Models and Integration Schemes for Interval Management in the TRACON

Reusable models of common elements for communication, computation, decision and control in air traffic management are necessary in order to enable simulation, analysis and assurance of emergent properties, such as safety and stability, for a given operational concept. Uncertainties due to faults, such as dropped messages, along with non-linearities and sensor noise are an integral part of these models, and impact emergent system behavior. Flight control algorithms designed using a linearized version of the flight mechanics will exhibit error due to model uncertainty, and may not be stable outside a neighborhood of the given point of linearization. Moreover, the communication mechanism by which the sensed state of an aircraft is fed back to a flight control system (such as an ADS-B message) impacts the overall system behavior; both due to sensor noise as well as dropped messages (vacant samples). Additionally simulation of the flight controller system can exhibit further numerical instability, due to selection of the integration scheme and approximations made in the flight dynamics. We examine the theoretical and numerical stability of a speed controller under the Euler and Runge-Kutta schemes of integration, for the Maintain phase for a Mid-Term (2035-2045) Interval Management (IM) Operational Concept for descent and landing operations. We model uncertainties in communication due to missed ADS-B messages by vacant samples in the integration schemes, and compare the emergent behavior of the system, in terms of stability, via the boundedness of the final system state. Any bound on the errors incurred by these uncertainties will play an essential part in a composable assurance argument required for real-time, flight-deck guidance and control systems,. Thus, we believe that the creation of reusable models, which possess property guarantees, such as safety and stability, is an innovative and essential requirement to assessing the emergent properties of novel airspace concepts of operation.

Neogi, Natasha↗

Pretest Plan for a Quarter Scale AFT Segment of the SRB Filament Wound Case in the NSWC Hydroballistics Facility

In support of preflight design loads definition, preliminary water impact scale model are being conducted of space shuttle rocket boosters. The model to be used as well as the instrumentation, test facilities, and test procedures are described for water impact tests being conducted at test conditions to simulate full-scale initial impact at vertical velocities from 65 to 85 ft/sec. zero horizontal velocity, and angles of 0,5, and 10 degrees.

Adoue, J. A.↗

Performance study of galactic cosmic ray shield materials

The space program is faced with two difficult radiation protection issues for future long-term operations. First, retrofit of shield material or conservatism in shield design is prohibitively expensive and often impossible. Second, shielding from the cosmic heavy ions is faced with limited knowledge on the physical properties and biological responses of these radiations. The current status of space shielding technology and its impact on radiation health is discussed herein in terms of conventional protection practice and a test biological response model. The impact of biological response on the selection of optimum materials for cosmic ray shielding is presented in terms of the transmission characteristics of the shield material. Although the systematics of nuclear cross sections are able to demonstrate the relation of exposure risk to shield-material composition, the current uncertainty in-nuclear cross sections will not allow an accurate evaluation of risk reduction. This paper presents a theoretical study of risk-related factors and a pilot experiment to study the effectiveness of choice of shield materials to reduce the risk in space operations.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗

The Impact Response of Carbon/Epoxy Laminates (Center Director's Discretionary Fund, Project No. 94-13)

Low velocity dropweight impact tests were conducted on carbon/epoxy laminates under various boundary conditions. The composite plates were 8-ply (+45,0,-45,90)s laminates supported in a clamped-clamped/free-free configuration with varying amounts of in-plane load, N(sub x), applied. Specimens were impacted at energies of 3.4, 4.5, and 6 Joules (2.5, 3.3, and 4.4 ft-lb). The amount of damage induced into the specimen was evaluated using instrumented impact techniques, x-ray inspection, and cross-sectional photomicroscopy. Some static identation tests were performed to examine if the impact events utilized in this study were of a quasi-static nature and also to gain insight into the shape of the deflected surface at various impact load combinations. Load-displacement curves from these tests were compared to those of the impact tests, as was damage determined from x-ray inspection. The finite element technique was used to model the impact event and determine the stress field within the laminae. Results showed that for a given impact energy level, more damage was induced into the specimen as the external in-plane load, N(sub x), was increased. The majority of damage observed consisted of back face splitting of the matrix parallel to the fibers in that ply, associated with delaminations emanating from these splits. The analysis showed qualitatively the results of impact conditions on maximum load of impact, maximum transverse deflection, and first failure mode and location.

Nettles, A. T.↗

A Group Increment Scheme for Infrared Absorption Intensities of Greenhouse Gases

A molecule's absorption in the atmospheric infrared (IR) window (IRW) is an indicator of its efficiency as a greenhouse gas. A model for estimating the absorption of a fluorinated molecule within the IRW was developed to assess its radiative impact. This model will be useful in comparing different hydrofluorocarbons and hydrofluoroethers contribution to global warming. The absorption of radiation by greenhouse gases, in particular hydrofluoroethers and hydrofluorocarbons, was investigated using ab initio quantum mechanical methods. Least squares regression techniques were used to create a model based on this data. The placement and number of fluorines in the molecule were found to affect the absorption in the IR window and were incorporated into the model. Several group increment models are discussed. An additive model based on one-carbon groups is found to work satisfactorily in predicting the ab initio calculated vibrational intensities.

Kokkila, Sara I.↗

Hypersonic Separated Flows About "Tick" Configurations With Sensitivity to Model Design

This paper presents computational results obtained by applying the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method for hypersonic nonequilibrium flow about "tick-shaped" model configurations. These test models produces a complex flow where the nonequilibrium and rarefied aspects of the flow are initially enhanced as the flow passes over an expansion surface, and then the flow encounters a compression surface that can induce flow separation. The resulting flow is such that meaningful numerical simulations must have the capability to account for a significant range of rarefaction effects; hence the application of the DSMC method in the current study as the flow spans several flow regimes, including transitional, slip, and continuum. The current focus is to examine the sensitivity of both the model surface response (heating, friction and pressure) and flowfield structure to assumptions regarding surface boundary conditions and more extensively the impact of model design as influenced by leading edge configuration as well as the geometrical features of the expansion and compression surfaces. Numerical results indicate a strong sensitivity to both the extent of the leading edge sharpness and the magnitude of the leading edge bevel angle. Also, the length of the expansion surface for a fixed compression surface has a significant impact on the extent of separated flow.

Moss, J. N.↗

Impacts of Large-Scale Circulation on Convection: A 2-D Cloud Resolving Model Study

Studies of impacts of large-scale circulation on convection, and the roles of convection in heat and water balances over tropical region are fundamentally important for understanding global climate changes. Heat and water budgets over warm pool (SST=29.5 C) and cold pool (SST=26 C) were analyzed based on simulations of the two-dimensional cloud resolving model. Here the sensitivity of heat and water budgets to different sizes of warm and cold pools is examined.

Li, X↗