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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

Key points that this analysis will begin to address are: 1)What physically is going on in the cloud when there is a jump in lightning? - Updraft variations, ice fluxes. 2)How do these processes fit in with severe storm conceptual models? 3)What would this information provide an end user (i.e., the forecaster)? - Relate LJA to radar observations, like changes in reflectivity, MESH, VIL, etc. based multi-Doppler derived physical relationships 4) How do we best transistionthis algorithm into the warning decision process. The known relationship between lightning updraft strength/volume and precipitation ice mass production can be extended to the concept of the lightning jump. Examination of the first lightning jump times from 329 storms in Schultz et al. shows an increase in the mean reflectivity profile and mixed phase echo volume during the 10 minutes prior to the lightning jump. Limited dual-Doppler results show that the largest lightning jumps are well correlated in time with increases in updraft strength/volume and precipitation ice mass production; however, the smaller magnitude lightning jumps appear to have more subtle relationships to updraft and ice mass characteristics.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Status of and Outlook for Largescale Modeling of Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean Interactions in the Arctic

Arctic air masses have direct impacts on the weather and climatic extremes of midlatitude areas such as central North America. Arctic physical processes pose special and very important problems for global atmospheric models used for climate simulation and numerical weather prediction. At present, the observational database is inadequate to support research aimed at overcoming these problems. Three interdependent Arctic field programs now being planned will help to remedy this situation: SHEBA, which will operate an ice camp in the Arctic for a year-, ARM, which will supply instruments for use at the SHEBA ice camp and which will also conduct longer-term measurements near Barrow, Alaska; and FIRE, which will conduct one or more aircraft campaigns, in conjunction with remote-sensing investigations focused on the SHEBA ice camp. This paper provides an introductory overview of the physics of the Arctic from the perspective of large-scale modelers, outlines some of the modeling problems that arise in attempting to simulate these processes, and explains how the data to be provided by the three field programs can be used to test and improve large-scale models.

Randall, David↗
DOE OSTI2021

A spatial evaluation of Arctic sea ice and regional limitations in CMIP6 historical simulations

The Arctic sea ice response to a warming climate is assessed in a subset of models participating in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), using several metrics in comparison with satellite observations and results from the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System and the Regional Arctic System Model. Our study examines the historical representation of sea ice extent, volume, and thickness using spatial analysis metrics, such as the integrated ice-edge error, Brier score, and Spatial Probability Score. We find that the CMIP6 multi-model mean captures the mean annual cycle and 1979-2014 sea ice trends remarkably well. However, individual models experience a wide range of uncertainty in the spatial distribution of sea ice when compared against satellite measurements and reanalysis data. Our metrics expose common and individual regional model biases, which sea ice temporal analyses alone do not capture. We identify large ice edge and ice thickness errors in Arctic sub-regions, implying possible model specific limitations in or lack of representation of some key physical processes. We postulate that many of them could be related to the oceanic forcing, especially in the marginal and shelf seas, where seasonal sea ice changes are not adequately simulated. We therefore conclude that an individual model’s ability to represent the observed/reanalysis spatial distribution still remains a challenge. We propose the spatial analysis metrics as useful tools to diagnose model limitations, narrow down possible processes affecting them, and guide future model improvements critical to the representation and projections of Arctic climate change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

How does humidity data impact land surface modeling of hydrothermal regimes at a permafrost site in Utqia$\mathrm{\dot{g}}$vik, Alaska?

Humidity is a basic and crucial meteorological indicator commonly measured in several forms, including specific humidity, relative humidity, and absolute humidity. These different forms can be inter-derived based on the saturation vapor pressure (SVP). In past decades, dozens of formulae have been developed to calculate the SVP with respect to, and in equilibrium with, liquid water and solid ice surfaces, but many prior studies use a single function for all temperature ranges, without considering the distinction between over the liquid water and ice surfaces. These different approaches can result in humidity estimates that may impact our understanding of surface-subsurface thermal-hydrological dynamics in cold regions. In this study, we compared the relative humidity (RH) downloaded and calculated from four data sources in Alaska based on five commonly used SVP formulas. These RHs, along with other meteorological indicators, were then used to drive physics-rich land surface models at a permafrost-affected site. Here, we found that higher values of RH (up to 40%) were obtained if the SVP was calculated with the over-ice formulation when air temperatures were below freezing, which could lead to a 30% maximum difference in snow depths. The choice of whether to separately calculate the SVP over an ice surface in winter also produced a significant range (up to 0.2 m) in simulated annual maximum thaw depths. The sensitivity of seasonal thaw depth to the formulation of SVP increases with the rainfall rate and the height of above-ground ponded water, while it diminishes with warmer air temperatures. These results show that RH variations based on the calculation of SVP with or without over-ice calculation meaningfully impact physically-based predictions of snow depth, sublimation, soil temperature, and active layer thickness. Under particular conditions, when severe flooding (inundation) and cool air temperatures are present, care should be taken to evaluate how humidity data is estimated for land surface and earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Interrelationships of Sea Surface Salinity, Chlorophyll-α Concentration, and Sea Surface Temperature near the Antarctic Ice Edge

Satellite data can now provide a coherent picture of sea surface salinity (SSS), chlorophyll-α concentration (Chlα), sea surface temperature (SST), and sea ice cover across the Southern Ocean. The availability of these data at the basin scale enables novel insight into the physical and biological processes in an area that has historically been difficult to gather in situ data from. The analysis shows large regional and interannual variability of these parameters but also strong coherence across the Southern Ocean. The covariability of the parameters near the marginal ice zone shows a generally negative relationship between SSS and Chlα (r = −0.87). This may in part be attributed to the large seasonality of the variables, but analysis of data within the spring period (from November to December) shows similarly high correlation (r = −0.81). This is the first time that a large-scale robust connection between low salinity and high phytoplankton concentration during ice melt period has been quantified. Chlorophyll-α concentration is also well correlated with SST (r = 0.79) providing a potential indicator of the strength of the temperature limitation on primary productivity in the region. The observed correlation also varied regionally due to differences in ice melt patterns during spring and summer. Overall, this study provides new insights into the physical characteristics of the Southern Ocean as observed from space. In a continually warming and freshening Southern Ocean, the relationships observed here provide a key data source for testing ocean biogeochemical models and assessing the effect of sea ice–ocean processes on primary production.

Cynthia Garcia-Eidell↗
NASA NTRS2010

Inferring Cirrus Size Distributions Through Satellite Remote Sensing and Microphysical Databases

Since cirrus clouds have a substantial influence on the global energy balance that depends on their microphysical properties, climate models should strive to realistically characterize the cirrus ice particle size distribution (PSD), at least in a climatological sense. To date, the airborne in situ measurements of the cirrus PSD have contained large uncertainties due to errors in measuring small ice crystals (D<60 m). This paper presents a method to remotely estimate the concentration of the small ice crystals relative to the larger ones using the 11- and 12- m channels aboard several satellites. By understanding the underlying physics producing the emissivity difference between these channels, this emissivity difference can be used to infer the relative concentration of small ice crystals. This is facilitated by enlisting temperature-dependent characterizations of the PSD (i.e., PSD schemes) based on in situ measurements. An average cirrus emissivity relationship between 12 and 11 m is developed here using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite instrument and is used to retrieve the PSD based on six different PSD schemes. The PSDs from the measurement-based PSD schemes are compared with corresponding retrieved PSDs to evaluate differences in small ice crystal concentrations. The retrieved PSDs generally had lower concentrations of small ice particles, with total number concentration independent of temperature. In addition, the temperature dependence of the PSD effective diameter De and fall speed Vf for these retrieved PSD schemes exhibited less variability relative to the unmodified PSD schemes. The reduced variability in the retrieved De and Vf was attributed to the lower concentrations of small ice crystals in the retrieved PSD.

Mitchell, David↗
NASA NTRS2018

Using the Hottest Particles in the Universe to Probe Icy Solar System Worlds

We present results of our Phase 1 NIAC Study to determine the feasibility of developing a competitive, low cost, low power, low mass passive instrument to measure ice depth on outer planet ice moons, such as Europa, Ganymede, Callisto, and Enceladus. Indirect measurements indicate that liquid water oceans are likely present beneath the icy shells of such moons (see e.g.,the JPL press release "The Solar System and Beyond is Awash in Water"), which has important astrobiological implications. Determining the thickness of these ice shells is challenging given spacecraft SWaP (Size, Weight and Power) resources. The current approach uses a suite of instruments, including a high power, massive ice penetrating radar. The instrument under study, called PRIDE (Passive Radio Ice Depth Experiment) exploits a remarkable confluence between methods from the high energy particle physics and the search for extraterrestrial life within the solar system. PRIDE is a passive receiver of a naturally occurring radio frequency (RF) signal generated by interactions of deep penetrating Extremely High Energy (> 10^18 eV) cosmic ray neutrinos. It could measure ice thickness directly, and at a significant savings to spacecraft resources. At RF frequencies the transparency of modeled Europan ice is up to many km, so an RF sensor in orbit can observe neutrino interactions to great depths, and thereby probe the thickness of the ice layer.

Exploration↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Taming the Untamable: Making An Enceladus-Like Plume by Hypervelocity Oblique Impacts at the NASA Ames Vertical Gun Range (AVGR) Facility

Enceladus’ plume was extensively investigated by the Cassini-Huygens mission [1-4], giving information about the icy moon interior, and the existence of a plausibly inhabited global ocean. The plume is a mixture of gas, sub-micrometer to micrometer ice, and non-ice particles, expanding into space from vents in the Tiger Stripes region [5]. Collecting plume’s ice particles for signs of Life is a fundamental objective of future fly-by missions to Enceladus, and other icy moons, e.g., Europa, where icy plumes could exist. However, understanding particle collection on high-speed flybys through a plume environment is a challenging task. To address the above, in collaboration with the Applied Physics Laboratory (APL), we have been testing the collection of impact-generated ice grains from simulated ice plumes at the NASA Ames Vertical GunRange (AVGR) facility [e.g., 6-7].Of particular interest is the alteration of organic material in the particles during the high-speed collection process. Any such alteration could degrade the ability of instruments to detect biomarkers in the samples collected. An experimental and theoretical understanding of the organic alteration as a function of collection speed could be used to unravel these effects. Methods: Plumes of -170°C ice particles traveling at an initial speed of 2 – 3 km/s were created by shooting 3-mm hollow Aluminum (Al) projectiles (up to 6 km/s) at liquid-nitrogen-cooled ice targets of synthetic seawater (SSW). An Al witness foil is positioned to determine particle size, and ice particle impact speed is determined by high-speed video. The ice particles smash and sublimate on impact leaving salt residue, dents, and pits on the Al witness foil. We characterized Ice grains type, abundance, density, shape, and distribution caliper (Ferret)diameter via image pattern recognition analysis (ImageJ Software) of still camera photographs of the Al target. Results: Our hyper-velocity impact experiments generated an Enceladus plume analog with an ice particle mean diameter within the particle size distribution (i.e., 2 micrometers to 50 micrometers) as determined by Cassini’s multiple instruments [8]. Simulated impact speed ranged0.2 km/s to 1-2 km/s. The continued experimental production of high-velocity, micrometer-sized ice grains is underway at the AVGR. The relevance of ice particle generation is multifold, so are its applications. These include testing for fragmentation of molecular organics to interpret Cassini’s data (e.g., Cassini Data Analysis Program) and studies of forwarding contamination (a planetary protection issue).

Rosalba Bonaccorsi↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dipolar Spin Ice Regime Proximate to an All-In-All-Out Néel Ground State in the Dipolar-Octupolar Pyrochlore Ce 2 Sn 2 O 7

The dipolar-octupolar (DO) pyrochlores, R 2 M 2 O 7 ( R = Ce , Sm , Nd ), are key players in the search for realizable novel quantum spin liquid (QSL) states as a large parameter space within the DO pyrochlore phase diagram is theorized to host QSL states of both dipolar and octupolar nature. New single crystals and powders of Ce 2 Sn 2 O 7 , synthesized by hydrothermal techniques, present an opportunity for a new characterization of the exchange parameters in Ce 2 Sn 2 O 7 using the near-neighbor X Y Z model Hamiltonian associated with DO pyrochlores. Utilizing quantum numerical linked cluster expansion fits to heat capacity and magnetic susceptibility measurements, and classical Monte Carlo calculations to the diffuse neutron diffraction of the new hydrothermally grown Ce 2 Sn 2 O 7 samples, we place Ce 2 Sn 2 O 7 ’s ground state within the ordered dipolar all-in-all-out (AIAO) Néel phase, with quantum Monte Carlo calculations showing a transition to long-range order at temperatures below those accessed experimentally. Indeed, our new neutron diffraction measurements on the hydrothermally grown Ce 2 Sn 2 O 7 powders show a broad signal at low scattering wave vectors, reminiscent of a spin ice, in striking contrast from previous powder neutron diffraction on samples grown from solid-state synthesis, which found diffuse scattering at high scattering wave vectors associated with magnetic and suggested an octupolar quantum spin ice state. We conclude that new hydrothermally grown Ce 2 Sn 2 O 7 samples host a finite-temperature proximate dipolar spin ice phase, above the expected transition to AIAO Néel order. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying the Resolution Sensitivity of the Kain–Fritsch Scheme Across the Gray Zone by Isolating Interactions: A TWP‐ICE Case Study

The resolution sensitivity of the Kain–Fritsch (KF) convection scheme and the role of interactions between the physics and dynamics within the gray zone (<10 km) were investigated using the Separate Physics and Dynamics Experiment (SPADE) framework. Two groups of experiments were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model via traditional (Tradition) runs and SPADE runs with resolutions of 1, 2, 4, and 8 km during the wet period of the Tropical Warm Pool–International Cloud Experiment (TWP‐ICE). Results show that the KF scheme simulates the weakened convective processes well as the resolution increases in both groups, and the changes in the convective variables with resolution in SPADE are smaller than in the Tradition group. This indicates the important effects of interactions between model components on convection parameterizations as the resolution changes. Additionally, the microphysics variables remain nearly unchanged with resolution in SPADE and weaken slightly in Tradition as the resolution decreases, suggesting the relatively weaker influences of model interactions for the resolved‐cloud parameterization. Therefore, the scale‐aware behavior of KF scheme is further strengthened in Tradition runs, primarily through inhibiting the strength of stratiform processes through physics–dynamics interactions and physical components.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Heterogeneous Ice Growth in Micron-Sized Water Droplets Due to Spontaneous Freezing

Understanding how ice nucleates and grows into larger crystals is of crucial importance for many research fields. The purpose of this study was to shed light on the phase and structure of ice once a nucleus is formed inside a metastable water droplet. Wide-angle X-ray scattering (WAXS) was performed on micron-sized droplets evaporatively cooled to temperatures where homogeneous nucleation occurs. We found that for our weak hits ice grows more cubic compared to the strong hits that are completely hexagonal. Due to efficient heat removal caused by evaporation, we propose that the cubicity of ice at the vicinity of the droplet’s surface is higher than for ice formed within the bulk of the droplet. Moreover, the Bragg peaks were classified based on their geometrical shapes and positions in reciprocal space, which showed that ice grows heterogeneously with a significant population of peaks indicative of truncation rods and crystal defects. Frequent occurrences of the (100) reflection with extended in-planar structure suggested that large planar ice crystals form at the droplet surface, then fracture into smaller domains to accommodate to the curvature of the droplets. Planar faulting due to misaligned domains would explain the increased cubicity close to the droplet surface.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties

Abstract. Antarctic ice shelves are vulnerable to warming ocean temperatures, and some have already begun thinning in response to increased basal melt rates. Sea level is therefore expected to rise due to Antarctic contributions, but uncertainties in its amount and timing remain largely unquantified. In particular, there is substantial uncertainty in future basal melt rates arising from multi-model differences in thermal forcing and how melt rates depend on that thermal forcing. To facilitate uncertainty quantification in sea level rise projections, we build, validate, and demonstrate projections from a computationally efficient statistical emulator of a high-resolution (4 km) Antarctic ice sheet model, the Community Ice Sheet Model version 2.1. The emulator is trained to a large (500-member) ensemble of 200-year-long 4 km resolution transient ice sheet simulations, whereby regional basal melt rates are perturbed by idealized (yet physically informed) trajectories. The main advantage of our emulation approach is that by sampling a wide range of possible basal melt trajectories, the emulator can be used to (1) produce probabilistic sea level rise projections over much larger Monte Carlo ensembles than are possible by direct numerical simulation alone, thereby providing better statistical characterization of uncertainties, and (2) predict the simulated ice sheet response under differing assumptions about basal melt characteristics as new oceanographic studies are published, without having to run additional numerical ice sheet simulations. As a proof of concept, we propagate uncertainties about future basal melt rate trajectories, derived from regional ocean models, to generate probabilistic sea level rise estimates for 100 and 200 years into the future.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optical Absorption Spectroscopy Probes Water Wire and Its Ordering in a Hydrogen-Bond Network

Water wires, quasi-one-dimensional chains composed of hydrogen-bonded (H-bonded) water molecules, play a fundamental role in numerous chemical, physical, and physiological processes. Yet direct experimental detection of water wires has been elusive so far. Based on advanced many-body theory that includes electron-hole interactions, we report that optical absorption spectroscopy can serve as a sensitive probe of water wires and their ordering. In both liquid and solid water, the main peak of the spectrum is discovered to be a charge-transfer exciton. In water, the charge-transfer exciton is strongly coupled to the H-bonding environment where the exciton is excited between H-bonded water molecules with a large spectral intensity. In regular ice, the spectral weight of the charge-transfer exciton is enhanced by a collective excitation occurring on proton-ordered water wires, whose spectral intensity scales with the ordering length of water wire. The spectral intensity and excitonic interaction strength reaches its maximum in ice XI, where the long-range ordering length yields the most pronounced spectral signal. Our findings suggest that water wires, which widely exist in important physiological and biological systems and other phases of ice, can be directly probed by this approach. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Tang, Fujie (ORCID:0000000197615359)↗
NASA NTRS2014

Amorphous and Crystalline H20 Ice at Rhea's Inktomi Crater

We present the analysis of Cassini spectral data from spectral mapping of Saturnian icy moons Dione and Rhea, to investigate possible effects of impact crater formation on the relative abundances of crystalline and amorphous water ice in the moons' ice crusts. Both moons display morphologically young ray craters as well as older craters. Possible changes in ice properties due to crater formation are conjectured to be more visible in younger craters, and as such Rhea's well imaged ray crater Inktomi is analysed, as are older craters for comparison. We used data from Cassini's Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS). For each pixel in the VIMS maps, spectral data were extracted in the near-infrared range (1.75 micrometers less than lambda less than 2.45 micrometers). Analysis was begun by fitting a single Gaussian to the peak in absorption at 2.0 micrometers, which was then subtracted from the data, leaving residuals with a minimum on either side of the original 2.0-micrometers band. The spectra of the individual spatial pixels were then clustered by the differences between these minima, which are sensitive to changes in both ice grain size and crystallinity. This yielded preliminary maps which approximated the physical characteristics of the landscape and were used to identify candidates for further analysis. Spectra were then clustered by the properties of the 1.5-micrometers band, to divide the map into regions based on inferred grain size. For each region, the predicted differences in minima from the Gaussian residuals, over a range of crystallinities, were calculated based on the found grain sizes. This model was used to find the crystallinity of each pixel via grain size and characteristics of the residual function. Preliminary results show a greater degree of crystallization of young crater interiors, particularly in Rhea's ray crater Inktomi, where ice showed crystalline ice abundances between 33 percent and 61 percent. These patterns in ice crystallization are possibly attributable to increased heat generated during crater formation.

Saturn Satellites↗
DOE OSTI2022

The understudied winter: Evidence of how precipitation differences affect stream metabolism in a headwater

Climate change is causing pronounced shifts during winter in the US, including shortening the snow season, reducing snowpack, and altering the timing and volume of snowmelt-related runoff. These changes in winter precipitation patterns affect in-stream freeze-thaw cycles, including ice and snow cover, and can trigger direct and indirect effects on in-stream physical, chemical, and biological processes in ~60% of river basins in the Northern Hemisphere. We used high-resolution, multi-parameter data collected in a headwater stream and its local environment (climate and soil) to determine interannual variability in physical, chemical, and biological signals in a montane stream during the winter of an El Niño and a La Niña year. We observed ~77% greater snow accumulation during the El Niño year, which caused the formation of an ice dam that shifted the system from a primarily lotic to a lentic environment. Water chemistry and stream metabolism parameters varied widely between years. They featured anoxic conditions lasting over a month, with no observable gross primary production (GPP) occurring under the ice and snow cover in the El Niño year. In contrast, dissolved oxygen and GPP remained relatively high during the winter months of the La Niña year. These redox and metabolic changes driven by changes in winter precipitation have significant implications for water chemistry and biological functioning beyond the winter. Our study suggests that as snow accumulation and hydrologic conditions shift during the winter due to climate change, hot-spots and hot-moments for biogeochemical processing may be reduced, with implications for the downstream movement of nutrients and transported materials.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of Shadowgraphy and X-Ray Phase Contrast Methods for Characterizing a DT Ice Layer in an Inertial Confinement Fusion Target

Shadowgraphy and x-ray phase contrast (XPC) imaging are two techniques that are used for characterizing the deuterium-tritium ice layer in Inertial Confinement Fusion targets. Each technique has limitations that affect how accurately they can characterize small crystalline defects and measure the ice-thickness non-uniformities that may be only a few micrometers in height. The concern is that shadowgraphy may be overly sensitive to the shape and depth of defects in the surface and insufficiently sensitive to the shape of longer-wavelength roughness, while x-ray phase contrast may be too insensitive to defects in the ice surface. Multiple ice layers with different thicknesses (40 to 63 μm), thickness uniformities (peak-valley variations that range from <2- to 12 μm), and crystal defects were analyzed using shadowgraphy and x-ray phase contrast techniques. The results from each method agree when the ice layer is uniformly thick and the crystal lacks defects. That agreement worsens as the number of defects in the surface of the ice layer increases and the roughness that is determined from a shadowgram image of the target’s limb is greater than can be justified by the number of defects that are seen in the target’s front and rear surfaces. The XPC technique is considerably less sensitive to surface defects, in part due to the poorer dynamic range and image resolution compared to shadowgraphy. Localized regions of the ice layer that are thicker or thinner than the average thickness of the layer are reported by shadowgraphy to be smaller in height and footprint (by up to 30%) than by XPC. As a result, the two techniques report different ice layer thicknesses that can vary by up to 10%. Shadowgraphy results from two caustics that trace different paths through the target, and, in theory, image the same ice-vapor surface (but reflect from either the vapor or ice side of the interface) did not consistently characterize the size or shape of ice features to be the same magnitude. Here, the XPC technique provides the best assessment of low-mode (l < 7) roughness in the ice layer. Shadowgraphy results using the strongest caustic is best for detecting the presence of grooves in the ice, though not for quantifying the size of them. If multiple grooves are present it is best to discard and reform the ice layer.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1985

Present status of the icy conglomerate model

A brief history of the ice comglomerate model (ICM) of the nuclei of comets is presented. Emphasis is given to the usefulness if the ICM in describing cometary behavior despite its vagueness with respect to the chemical composition and physical structure of cometry nuclei. Alternative theories concerning the relationship between the chemical composition of cometary ices and comet behavior are briefly discussed.

Whipple, F. L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dissecting Anvil Cloud Response to Sea Surface Warming

Abstract We derive an anvil cloud diagnostic from the continuity equation of cloud ice and apply it to the output of convection‐permitting Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) simulations run in radiative‐convective equilibrium mode. This diagnostic shows that anvil cloud fraction can be reliably diagnosed as a product of cloud detrainment and lifetime. Detrainment is found to be approximated well by a product of clear sky convergence and cloud ice mixing ratio, while cloud lifetime is dominated by sedimentation. Taken together, this diagnostic expresses anvil cloud fraction as a function of five physically measurable quantities. Of these, clear‐sky convergence changes drive the anvil cloud reduction with warming while an increase in cloud ice mixing ratio buffers the decrease. Accordingly, this study provides a theoretical foundation upon which the Stability‐Iris hypothesis can be tested.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗