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Results for “hierarchical models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 469 records · Page 26

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DOE OSTI2022

Global estimates of the fitness advantage of SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron

Abstract New variants of SARS-CoV-2 show remarkable heterogeneity in their relative fitness over both time and space. In this paper we extend the tools available for estimating the selection strength for new SARS-CoV-2 variants to a hierarchical, mixed-effects, renewal equation model. This formulation allows us to estimate selection effects at the global level while incorporating both measured and unmeasured heterogeneity among countries. Applying this model to the spread of Omicron in forty countries, we find evidence for very strong but very heterogeneous selection effects. To test whether this heterogeneity is explained by differences in the immune landscape, we considered several measures of vaccination rates and recent population-level infection as covariates, finding moderately strong, statistically significant effects. We also found a significant positive correlation between the selection advantage of Delta and Omicron at the country level, suggesting that other region-specific explanatory variables of fitness differences do exist. Our method is implemented in the Stan programming language, can be run on standard consumer-grade computing resources, and will be straightforward to apply to future variants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multi-scale Multi-physics Scientific Machine Learning for Water Cycle Extreme Events Identification, Labelling, Representation, and Characterization

Impacts of climate are usually felt through extreme events such as droughts, floods, thunderstorms, windstorms, wildfires, and so on, that are intimately tied to the water cycle. Predicting the frequency and severity of extreme events under climate change remains a significant challenge; meanwhile, the mechanisms and impacts of these extremes are far from well understood. There are several major science challenges: (1) Lack of labelled extreme events data and missing standards in defining extremes; (2) Computational demand of high-resolution ensemble climate modeling; (3) Modeling the multiscale multi-physics hierarchical structure of compound extremes; (4) Lack of understanding of mechanisms of extreme events; (5) Large uncertainty in extreme events impacts on infrastructure; (6) Subjective assessment of weather-related risk from seasonal to multi-decadal time scales and lack of metrics for risk assessment and mitigation control.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

MAGNET Scaling and Methodology

The purpose of this study was to analyze the heat transfer of the Microreactor Agile Non-nuclear Experimental Testbed (MAGNET) within the Dynamic Energy Transport and Integration Laboratory (DETAIL) and develop scaling equations and models to couple with other systems. Hierarchical Two-Tiered Scaling (H2TS) methodologies were applied to DETAIL’s MAGNET facility to scale and project data sets while conserving the observed behavior based on first principles. The MAGNET system was successfully scaled using H2TS and multiple system parameters were determined or calculated from experimental data including steady state and transient data.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS1990

Results of the Systems Autonomy Demonstration Project

The Systems Autonomy Demonstration Project (SADP) produced a knowledge-based real-time control system for real-time control and fault detection, isolation and recovery (FDIR) of a prototype two-phase Space Station Freedom external control system (TCS). The Thermal Expert System (TEXSYS) was demonstrated in recent tests to be capable of reliable fault anticipation and detection, as well as nominal control of the thermal bus. Performance requirements were addressed by adopting a hierarchical symbolic control approach, layering model-based expert system software on a conventional numerical data acquisition and control system. The model-based capabilities of TEXSYS were shown to be advantageous, particularly for detection of unforeseen faults and sensor failures.

Glass, B. J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Primeval galaxies in the sub-mm and mm

Although the results of COBE's FIRAS experiment 1 constrain the deviation in energy from the CMB blackbody in the 500-5000 micron range to be delta E/E, sub cmb less than 0.005, primeval galaxies can still lead to a brilliant sub-mm sky of non-Gaussian sources that are detectable at 10 inch resolution from planned arrays such as SCUBA on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope and, quite plausibly, at sub-arcsecond resolution in planned mm and sub-mm interferometers. Here, we apply our hierarchical peaks method to a CDM model to construct sub-mm and mm maps of bursting PG's appropriate for these instruments with minimum contours chosen to correspond to realistic observational parameters for them and which pass the FIRAS limits.

Bond, J. Richard↗

NASA NTRS2002

Large Eddy Simulation of Cryogenic Injection Processes at Supercritical Pressure

This paper highlights results from the first of a series of hierarchical simulations aimed at assessing the modeling requirements for application of the large eddy simulation technique to cryogenic injection and combustion processes in liquid rocket engines. The focus is on liquid-oxygen-hydrogen coaxial injectors at a condition where the liquid-oxygen is injected at a subcritical temperature into a supercritical environment. For this situation a diffusion dominated mode of combustion occurs in the presence of exceedingly large thermophysical property gradients. Though continuous, these gradients approach the behavior of a contact discontinuity. Significant real gas effects and transport anomalies coexist locally in colder regions of the flow, with ideal gas and transport characteristics occurring within the flame zone. The current focal point is on the interfacial region between the liquid-oxygen core and the coaxial hydrogen jet where the flame anchors itself.

Oefelein, Joseph C.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Large Eddy Simulation of Cryogenic Injection Processes at Supercritical Pressure

Oefelein, Joseph C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Convolutional Neural Network for Enhancement of Multi-Scale Localization in Granular Metallic Representative Unit Cells

A convolutional neural network was used to enhance the localization of strain and stress for a generalized method of cells model of a metallic microstructure. Enhanced shear strains, measured in terms of the linear regression coefficients as a function of ground truth strains, were improved from inaccurate and uncorrelated (slope=0.003, Rsq=0.000) to accurate and well correlated (slope=0.890, Rsq=0.882) relative to ground truth (slope=1.0, Rsq=1.0). In applying the convolutional neural network, a convolutional stride of 1.0 (padding=’same’) was only modestly effective while strides of 2 or 3 were more effective yet at higher cost. Additional convolutional layers were generally more expensive than additional dense layers, often with limited benefit. The accuracy of enhanced localized shear strains and stress is expected to yield benefits for damage progression models, especially in the context of hierarchical multi-scale methods where the generalized method of cells is applied at the intermediate scale.

Machine Learning↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical-embedding autoencoder with a predictor as efficient architecture for learning time-evolution in multi-scale turbulent flows

We introduce a scale-aware, data-driven deep learning modeling framework for accurately predicting the time evolution of multi-scale turbulent plasma and liquid flows. The approach is motivated by the idea of scale separation. Structures of vastly different length scales emerge in these systems, and interactions between these structures occur only locally. To exploit this structure, the flow state is transformed by a hierarchical, fully convolutional autoencoder, not into a single embedding layer as in conventional convolutional surrogate models, but into a series of embedding layers. A stepwise training strategy ensures that fine-scale features are encoded on a high-resolution grid, while larger structures are represented on progressively coarser layers. The time evolution predictor advances all embedding layers in sync, capturing local interactions between features at the same scale as well as between all scales. This approach enables efficient modeling of multi-scale systems since negligible interactions between distant, small-scale structures do not need to be directly modeled. Our hierarchical-embedding autoencoder with a predictor framework is evaluated on canonical examples of multi-scale turbulence: two-dimensional Kolmogorov flow and Hasegawa–Wakatani plasma turbulence. In both cases, the proposed framework significantly improves predictive accuracy relative to conventional convolutional network architectures. A significant improvement in prediction accuracy was observed for crucial statistical characteristics of the Hasegawa–Wakatani plasma as well as for individual trajectories of the Kolmogorov flow turbulence. Importantly, the model's rollout for the Hasegawa–Wakatani problem demonstrates a four-order-of-magnitude speedup compared to traditional numerical solvers.

Khrabry, Alexander I. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United↗

DOE OSTI2022

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2020

Combining model-based and model-free methods for stochastic control of distributed energy resources

Modern distribution systems are experiencing a fast transformation with the growing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs). Along with the economic and environmental benefits of DERs, challenges arise to address the uncertainties caused by their inherent volatility. If properly coordinated, however, DERs have the potential to provide the controllability that grid operators need. Here, we propose a hierarchical control framework that combines the model-based and model-free methods for stochastic DER control in distribution systems. The upper-level scheduler considers a chance-constrained optimal power flow problem (model-based) that schedules DER setpoints to minimize the operational cost and maintain the operating reserve. The lower-level distributed DER controllers absorb real-time disturbances and uncertainties using the extremum seeking control (model-free) to achieve grid objectives. The combination of model-based and model-free methods allows us to take the advantages of both methods to effectively manage the uncertainty in distribution systems. The proposed work is demonstrated on the IEEE 13-node feeder.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ab Initio-Based Bond Order Potential for Arsenene Polymorphs Developed via Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning

Arsenene, a less-explored two-dimensional material, holds the potential for applications in wearable electronics, memory devices, and quantum systems. This study introduces a bond-order potential model with Tersoff formalism, the ML-Tersoff, which leverages multireward hierarchical reinforcement learning (RL), trained on an ab initio data set. This data set covers a spectrum of properties for arsenene polymorphs, enhancing our understanding of its mechanical and thermal behaviors without the complexities of traditional models requiring multiple parameter sets. Our RL strategy utilizes decision trees coupled with a hierarchical reward strategy to accelerate convergence in high-dimensional continuous search spaces. Unlike the Stillinger-Weber approach, which demands separate formalisms for buckled and puckered forms, the ML-Tersoff model concurrently captures multiple properties of the two polymorphs by effectively representing the local environment, thereby avoiding the need for different atomic types. Here, we apply the ML model to understand the mechanical and thermal properties of the arsenene polymorphs and nanostructures. We observe an inverse relationship between the critical strain and temperature in arsenene. Thermal conductivity calculations in nanosheets show good agreement with ab initio data, reflecting a decrease in thermal conductivity attributable to increased anharmonic effects at higher temperatures. We also apply the model to predict the thermal behavior of arsenene nanotubes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hierarchical Distributed Optimal Power Flow of HV and MV Distribution Networks With Continuous and Discrete Devices

With large-scale distributed photovoltaics (PVs) being integrated into distribution networks (DNs), coordinated optimal power flow (OPF) of high voltage (HV) and medium voltage (MV) DNs should be investigated to optimally dispatch the distributed PVs and other network devices. Here, this paper presents a hierarchical distributed OPF method for HV and MV DNs with on-load tap changers, reactive power compensators, feeder switches and distributed PVs. A hierarchical master-slave control architecture is applied to implement coordinated OPF of two-layer DNs. The HV master problem and MV subproblems are transformed into mixed-integer convex problems respectively with second order cone programming and LinDistFlow approximation. Since there is no efficient distributed algorithm to solve such OPF models with integer subproblems, a novel distributed algorithm is proposed in this paper to efficiently solve the hierarchical coordinated OPF model with integer subproblems in a distributed manner. In the proposed algorithm, the coordinated OPF model is solved in a branch-and-bound framework, where in each branch node generalized Benders decomposition (GBD) algorithm is applied to decompose the coordinated OPF model into a master problem and relaxed subproblems and solves them iteratively to get optimal solution. The GBD optimal and feasible cutting planes generated in a branch node are proved to be valid for its descendants. Moreover, three acceleration techniques are introduced into the proposed algorithm to improve computational efficiency. Finally, the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method are verified via simulation tests in Jinzhai DNs of China.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Automatic identification and quantification of dense microcracks in high-performance fiber-reinforced cementitious composites through deep learning-based computer vision

Highlights: • A method is presented to detect, locate, quantify, and visualize dense microcracks in HPFRCC. • Quantification of dense microcracks is realized using deep learning method for the first time. • The presented method uses deep learning models that are trained using a realistic dataset size. • The presented method has a high computation efficiency for identifying and quantifying cracks. • The presented method provides crack width with errors up to 50 μm and a R{sup 2} value of 0.984. High-performance fiber-reinforced cementitious composites (HPFRCCs) feature high mechanical strengths, crack resistance, and durability. Under excessive loading, HPFRCCs demonstrate dense microcracks that are difficult to identify using existing methods. This study presents a computer vision method for identification, quantification, and visualization of microcracks in HPFRCCs based on deep learning. The presented method integrates multiple deep learning models and computer vision techniques in a hierarchical architecture. The crack pattern (e.g., number, width, and spacing of cracks) are automatically determined from pictures without human intervention. This study shows that the presented method achieves an accuracy of 0.992 for crack detection and an accuracy finer than 50 μm (R{sup 2} > 0.984) for quantification of crack width when deep learning models are trained using only 200 pictures of HPFRCCs and 200 pictures of conventional concrete with incorporation of data augmentation. The presented method is expected to be also applicable to other materials featuring complex cracks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Solution State Conformation and Aggregate Structure of Conjugated Polymers via Small Angle X-ray Scattering

Donor-acceptor (D-A) conjugated polymers are high-performance organic electronic materials that exhibit complex aggregation behavior. Understanding the solution state conformation and aggregation of conjugated polymers is crucial for controlling morphology during thin-film deposition and the subsequent electronic performance. However, a precise multiscale structure of solution state aggregates is lacking. Here, we present an in-depth small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) analysis of the solution state structure of an isoindigo-bithiophene-based D-A polymer (PII-2T) in chlorobenzene and decane as our primary system. Modeling the system as a combination of hierarchical fibrillar aggregates mixed with dispersed polymers, we extract information about conformation and multiscale aggregation and also clarify the physical origin of features often observed but unaddressed or misinterpreted in small-angle scattering patterns of conjugated polymers. The persistence length of the D-A polymer extracted from SAXS agrees well with a theoretical model based on the dihedral potentials. Additionally, we show that the broad high q structure factor peak seen in scattering profiles can be attributed to lamellar stacking occurring within the fibril aggregates and that the low q aggregate scattering is strongly influenced by the polymer molecular weight. Overall, the SAXS profiles of D-A polymers in general exhibit a sensitive dependence on the co-existence of fibrillar aggregate and dispersed polymer chain populations. We corroborate our findings from SAXS with electron microscopy of freeze-dried samples for direct imaging of fibrillar aggregates. Finally, we demonstrate the generality of our approach by fitting the scattering profiles of a variety of D-A polymers based on thieno-isoindigo (PTII-2T), diketopyrrolopyrrole (DPP2T-TT, DPP-BTZ, PDPP2FT-C- 16 ), naphthalenediimide (P(NDI2OD-T2)), and a conjugated block copolymer P3HT-b-DPPT-T. The results presented here establish a picture of the D-A polymer solution state structure and provide a general method of interpreting and analyzing their scattering profiles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2018

Multiscale Modeling of PEEK Using Reactive Molecular Dynamics Modeling and Micromechanics

Polyether ether ketone (PEEK) is a high-performance, semi-crystalline thermoplastic that is used in a wide range of engineering applications, including some structural components of aircraft. The design of new PEEK-based materials requires a precise understanding of the multiscale structure and behavior of semi-crystalline PEEK. Molecular Dynamics (MD) modeling can efficiently predict bulk-level properties of single phase polymers, and micromechanics can be used to homogenize those phases based on the overall polymer microstructure. In this study, MD modeling was used to predict the mechanical properties of the amorphous and crystalline phases of PEEK. The hierarchical microstructure of PEEK, which combines the aforementioned phases, was modeled using a multiscale modeling approach facilitated by NASA's MSGMC. The bulk mechanical properties of semi-crystalline PEEK predicted using MD modeling and MSGMC agree well with vendor data, thus validating the multiscale modeling approach.

Pisani, William A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Exact hierarchical clustering in one dimension

The present adhesion model-based one-dimensional simulations of gravitational clustering have yielded bound-object catalogs applicable in tests of analytical approaches to cosmological structure formation. Attention is given to Press-Schechter (1974) type functions, as well as to their density peak-theory modifications and the two-point correlation function estimated from peak theory. The extent to which individual collapsed-object locations can be predicted by linear theory is significant only for objects of near-characteristic nonlinear mass.

Williams, B. G.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data-driven variational multiscale reduced order models

We propose a new data-driven reduced order model (ROM) framework that centers around the hierarchical structure of the variational multiscale (VMS) methodology and utilizes data to increase the ROM accuracy at a modest computational cost. The VMS methodology is a natural fit for the hierarchical structure of the ROM basis: In the first step, we use the ROM projection to separate the scales into three categories: (i) resolved large scales, (ii) resolved small scales, and (iii) unresolved scales. In the second step, we explicitly identify the VMS–ROM closure terms, i.e., the terms representing the interactions among the three types of scales. In the third step, we use available data to model the VMS–ROM closure terms. Thus, instead of phenomenological models used in VMS for standard numerical discretizations (e.g., eddy viscosity models), we utilize available data to construct new structural VMS–ROM closure models. Specifically, we build ROM operators (vectors, matrices, and tensors) that are closest to the true ROM closure terms evaluated with the available data. We test the new data-driven VMS–ROM in the numerical simulation of four test cases: (i) the 1D Burgers equation with viscosity coefficient v = 10 -3 ; (ii) a 2D flow past a circular cylinder at Reynolds numbers, Re = 100, Re = 500, and Re= 1000; (iii) the quasi-geostrophic equations at Reynolds number Re = 450 and Rossby number Ro = 0.0036; and (iv) a 2D flow over a backward facing step at Reynolds number Re = 1000. The numerical results show that the data-driven VMS–ROM is significantly more accurate than standard ROMs.

42 ENGINEERING↗