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At least 469 records · Page 26

Modeling Nondestructive Defect Detection in Additively Manufactured Metallic Structures for Nuclear Applications

The future of quickly, economically produced metallic nuclear reactor parts with minimal supply-chain dependence lies in Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) Additive Manufacturing (AM): a 3D printing method involving laser melting and net shaping stainless steel and Inconel metallic powder into a solid structure. However, intrinsic features in LPBF frequently leads to the formation of materials defects, such as pores, within 3D printed structures. As safe long-term use in energy applications requires knowledge of all relevant defects before deployment in a reactor, we must develop methods for nondestructive detection of these defects. We are investigating Pulsed Thermal Tomography (PTT), which is a non-contact nondestructive imaging method scalable to arbitrary structure size. Thermal tomography (TT) is a computational method for 3D spatial reconstruction of material thermal effusivity from flash or pulsed thermography temperature data cube. Thermography data cube consists of 2D surface temperature measurements at different times. The objective of the present work is to investigate limits on defect detection in AM metallic structures with PTT. To this effect, we modeled PTT with COMSOL heat transfer computer simulations. We developed a layered media COMSOL simulation consisting of a Stainless Steel 316 (SS316) plate with an internal layer of un-sintered SS316 powder. Thermophysical properties of the powder layer were modeled with equivalent volume mixing model. To account for partial sintering at the boundary of the defect, the transition between solid and powder layers was modeled as a Gaussian. Using data from COMSOL simulations, we reconstructed depth-dependent thermal effusivity, which allowed defect visibility estimation. A series of parametric studies determined that at 1mm depth, 50µm is the smallest detectable defect. In addition, classification of the defects which can lead to early fatigue of the metallic structure in a reactor is briefly discussed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Interplay of strain and phase evolution of laser powder bed fusion Ti–6Al–4V

While additive manufacturing (AM) provides a method of producing geometrically complex and highly detailed structures, the generation of residual strain in AM processes like laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) can negatively impact performance-enabling properties. In applications such as orthopedic implants, specific performance windows require optimized microstructures in order to obtain desirable properties from multi-phase alloys like Ti–6Al–4V. This research aims to quantify the microscale origins of strain in L-PBF manufactured Ti–6Al–4V by understanding how strain is distributed at the grain and sub-grain scale, the interplay between phase evolution and strain, and examining post-processing strain relief strategies to control these features. Model spinal cage implants were manufactured from Ti–6Al–4V powder via L-PBF and then subjected to strain relieving heat treatment cycles above and below the Ti–6Al–4V β transus as a function of time and cooling rate. Residual strain was then studied via high resolution electron backscatter diffraction (HR-EBSD), and 2D strain maps with sub-micron resolution were generated for each post-processing state. It was found that macroscale thermal strains decreased with heat treatment time, but additional contributions from phase stabilizing residual strains retained primarily in the α' grains as lattice distortive strain remained. Additionally, the retention of β phase significantly changed the strain and dislocation distribution while reducing overall residual strain. In conclusion, these results were validated and reinforced with 3D mesoscopic micromechanical modeling of strain behavior across simulated microstructures, confirming that the local lattice dilation of α’ martensite is a primary contributor of microscale strain generation and retention in L-PBF Ti–6Al–4V.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Bayesian inferences of electrical current delivered to shocked transmission lines

Small radius Bdot measurements of electrical current delivered by pulsed power devices are routinely compromised by electrode/convolute plasmas endemic to multiterawatt transmission lines. Inferences of delivered current unaffected by these issues have recently been obtained by numerically optimizing consistency between model predictions and local experimental velocimetry data, but these are only unique for shockless velocity profiles. In the paper we describe a more general Bayesian method capable of inferring current despite the presence of shocks. Additionally, we describe uncertainty estimates and use of the technique on experimental data. This technique is the first to provide uncertainty estimates on the full current trace delivered to an inertial confinement fusion target.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Effects of a magnetic field on hot electron generation from laser-plasma instabilities

We performed two-dimensional simulations of turbulent laser-plasma instabilities in the presence and absence of external magnetic fields using the Laser Plasma Simulation Environment (LPSE) code. The results demonstrate that, in the presence of a magnetic field, the transition from ballistic to gyrating electron motion enhances the energy transfer from electron plasma waves to the electron population. Although stronger magnetic fields produce a larger population of hot electrons, these electrons tend to remain confined near the quarter-critical density, where the instabilities also localize, thereby reducing the potential for hot electron transport deeper into the target. Additionally, we present a scaling analysis that quantifies hot electron generation as a function of plasma electron temperature, density scale length, and applied magnetic field strength. These findings may have important applications for controlling hot electron flux and mitigating preheat in inertial confinement fusion targets.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Electron Cyclotron Emission–Based Separatrix Identification in ITER with OMFIT Synthetic Modeling

Accurate determination of the separatrix location is essential for understanding edge plasma behavior and optimizing confinement in tokamaks, especially in next-generation devices such as ITER. In this study, a synthetic microwave diagnostics module was developed and implemented in the OMFIT framework to assess the feasibility of an electron cyclotron emission–based separatrix detection method in ITER plasmas. Simulations were carried out using ITER H-mode equilibrium scenarios with different plasma density profiles and different pedestal widths. Here, the results show that the electron emission temperature profiles consistently exhibit an inversion pattern near the edge, with a well-defined minimum point that could serve as a proxy for the separatrix location. However, unlike in the DIII-D, the minimum point in ITER is systematically offset by approximately 2 cm into the scrape-off layer, independent of density or pedestal width, which is within the radial resolution range (2 to 5 cm) determined by the 500-MHz channel spacing. While the method does not provide the exact separatrix location, it offers a reliable indicator of the boundary region and has potential applications for real-time boundary monitoring in ITER and other future fusion devices.

Electron cyclotron emission↗

The 2022 Plasma Roadmap: low temperature plasma science and technology

Abstract The 2022 Roadmap is the next update in the series of Plasma Roadmaps published by Journal of Physics D with the intent to identify important outstanding challenges in the field of low-temperature plasma (LTP) physics and technology. The format of the Roadmap is the same as the previous Roadmaps representing the visions of 41 leading experts representing 21 countries and five continents in the various sub-fields of LTP science and technology. In recognition of the evolution in the field, several new topics have been introduced or given more prominence. These new topics and emphasis highlight increased interests in plasma-enabled additive manufacturing, soft materials, electrification of chemical conversions, plasma propulsion, extreme plasma regimes, plasmas in hypersonics, data-driven plasma science and technology and the contribution of LTP to combat COVID-19. In the last few decades, LTP science and technology has made a tremendously positive impact on our society. It is our hope that this roadmap will help continue this excellent track record over the next 5–10 years.

plasma diagnostics↗

Evidence for Dissociation and Ionization in Shock Compressed Nitrogen to 800 GPa

Triple bonding in the nitrogen molecule (N 2 ) is among the strongest chemical bonds with a dissociation enthalpy of 9.8 eV/molecule. Nitrogen is therefore an excellent test bed for theoretical and numerical methods aimed at understanding how bonding evolves under the influence of the extreme pressures and temperatures of the warm dense matter regime. Here, we report laser-driven shock experiments on fluid molecular nitrogen up to 800 GPa and 4.0 g/cm 3 . Line-imaging velocimetry measurements and impedance matching method with a quartz reference yield shock equation of state data of initially precompressed nitrogen. Comparison with numerical simulations using path integral Monte Carlo and density functional theory molecular dynamics reveals clear signatures of chemical dissociation and the onset of L-shell ionization. Furthermore, combining data along multiple shock Hugoniot curves starting from densities between 0.76 and 1.29 g/cm 3 , our study documents how pressure and density affect these changes in chemical bonding and provides benchmarks for future theoretical developments in this regime, with applications for planetary interior modeling, high energy density science, and inertial confinement fusion research.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

USE OF TWO-PISTON SPLAT QUENCHING TO INVESTIGATE & CHARACTERIZE THE IMPACT OF COMPOSITIONAL VARIATIONS ON RAPID SOLIDIFICATION MICROSTRUCTURES & SUB-MICROSCALE FEATURES IN STAINLESS STEEL ALLOY.

The objective of this dissertation was to use two-piston splat quenching (SQ) to investigate the impact of compositional modifications on the solidification and microstructure of rapidly solidified austenitic stainless steels (SS) and to demonstrate the ability of SQ to quickly and effectively simulate rapid solidification conditions similar to those found in powder bed fusion (PBF) additive techniques. PBF techniques like laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) are being implemented across a breadth of research and industrial applications to create parts with complex geometries and performance capabilities while pushing the current limits of processing conditions and understanding of material systems. In this work, SQ was used to experimentally produce rapid solidification in 20+ unique austenitic SS compositions with systematic variations of the chrome and nickel equivalency ratio (Cr/Nieq) through targeted compositional modifications. From the targeted change of Cr, Ni, and Mo concentrations in rapidly solidified SS alloys, the ferrite solidification mode was found to be the primary solidification mode at significantly lower Cr/Nieq than previously predicted for RS. Also, decreasing concentrations of Fe at a constant Cr/Nieq ratio (i.e., different Fe isopleths), or increased Mo concentrations at a constant Cr/Nieq ratio were found to suppress the ferrite to austenite massive transformation when compared to alloys with lower concentrations at the same Cr/Nieq. Using an established empirical relationship between cell size and cooling rate, the SQ technique was estimated to produce cooling rates between 106 and 108 K/s. Thermal gradients were extracted from 2-D heat transfer simulations of the SQ solidification event and used with these cooling rates to produce solidification rate estimates for SQ which were between 0.4-1.6m/s. The primary solidification mode was observed to be the determining factor in which elements segregated to the cell boundaries during RS, for which Cr and Mo were the main elements to segregate during primary austenite solidification and Ni during primary ferrite solidification. Finally, the solidification rates and conditions produced by SQ experiments resulted in similar microstructures, features, and microsegregation to what was found in LPBF samples of the same feedstock.

Hasenbusch, Zachary↗

Collaborative Research Proposal: Time Resolved Optical Emissions Spectroscopy and Laser Induced Fluorescence Spectroscopy of Nanosecond Pulsed Discharges in a Gas-Liquid Water Film Reactor

Electrical discharge plasma formed in contact with liquid water is of interest for a wide range of applications in chemical, biomedical, agricultural, electrical, and materials science and engineering. Such plasma reactors are of very timely importance since they also have significant disinfection capability by inactivating bacteria, viruses and other pathogens. Many types of plasma sources including those driven by AC, DC, RF, microwave, and pulsed electrical power supplies coupled to a wide range of different electrode configurations and reactor designs have been developed and explored which contact the plasma with liquid water. Recent roadmaps have recommended that further work is needed to develop our understanding of the fundamental chemical and physical process which occur at the interface of non-thermal plasma with liquid water solutions in order to advance this large diversity of applications which ultimately depend upon efficient production of key reactive chemical species. There is a wide range of interacting factors that affect the chemical reactions that occur in the plasma, in the liquid phase, and at the interface. These factors ultimately govern the key reactive chemical species formed and used in the various applications and they include a) the reactor design and input parameters, b) the discharge and transport processes, c) the plasma properties, and d) the resulting chemical reactions. For pulsed discharges, the power supply design and output parameters control the applied voltage, frequency, rise time, and width (duration) of the applied pulses. The reactor design involves specification of the gas-liquid contacting methods, electrode gap distance, reactor volume and shape, and gas and liquid flow rates achievable. The gas and liquid compositions as well as the liquid properties such as pH and conductivity are also of key importance in determination of the resulting chemical reactions. In addition, the important plasma properties include plasma gas temperature, electron density, electron energy (distribution), and size of the plasma channels which are all affected by the discharge and transport properties. Many studies have focused on specific aspects of these various processes. Of particular important and relevance to the proposed work is the utilization of nanosecond pulses to generate plasma in gas-liquid systems, liquid bubbles, underwater, and in gases. Recent advances in nanosecond pulses provide significant advantages in utilization with liquid water. For example, fast rise time and short pulses are less sensitive to water conductivity, such short pulses may provide advantages in fast temporal quenching of the plasma, and fundamental analysis of pulse properties, including pulse shape and width, may be facilitated by investigation of single filamentary fast pulses. Many studies have also dealt with the role of the gas composition on formation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) (i.e., hydroxyl radicals – ·OH, hydrogen peroxide – H 2 O 2 , various atomic oxygen species, ozone-O 3 , hydroperoxyl radicals HO 2 ·) and reactive nitrogen species (RNS) (i.e., nitrogen oxides – NO, NO 2 , N 2 O - collectively termed NO X , nitrite-NO 2 - , nitrate-NO 3 - , peroxynitrite-ONOO - ). The hydroxyl radical is the critical species in many chemical oxidation reactions for chemical degradation of toxic compounds in water and gases and for synthesis of some compounds. The mixture of various nitrogen oxide species is important for many biochemical and biological processes involved in biomedical and agricultural applications including disinfection and fertilizer production. The present proposal focuses on determination of the effects of time resolved electron density and hydroxyl radicals on plasma chemical reactions through collaboration with the Princeton Collaborative Low Temperature Plasma Research Facility (PCRF) at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL). In order to further investigate the role of the plasma generated electrons and hydroxyl radicals on the overall formation of the key species including hydrogen peroxide, hydroxyl radicals, and nitrogen oxides, the proposed work, thus seeks to determine high resolution time resolved electron density by optical emissions spectroscopy and time resolved hydroxyl radicals using laser induced fluorescence in the nanosecond discharge reactor. The combination of data on electron density and hydroxyl radical concentration will be utilized in the present work to more fully characterize the chemical reaction processes in this system and to advance the design, development, and operation of such chemical reactors for a wide range of applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Plasmons Enable Ultralow Threshold Solid-State Triplet Fusion Upconversion with a 2D Sensitizer

Solid-state triplet−triplet annihilation (TTA) upconversion has significant potential for application in light harvesting, optoelectronic devices, and bioimaging. However, the high optical powers required to achieve efficient upconversion have inhibited its adoption. In this work, we demonstrate plasmon-enhanced near-infrared (NIR)-to-blue TTA upconversion in a monolayer WSe2/organic heterojunction. Under far-field excitation, the device reaches a threshold of 19 mW/cm 2 and an external quantum efficiency (EQE) of 0.17% with an anti-Stokes shift of 1.1 eV. Plasmon excitation lowers the threshold to 0.9 mW/cm 2 and improves the EQE to 3.6%. We attribute the plasmon enhancement to surface plasmon polariton (SPP) near-field enhancement and dark-exciton absorption. Optimization of the WSe 2 transfer process is identified as a key factor for the device performance. This work demonstrates that plasmon excitation overcomes the low far-field absorption of 2D transition-metal dichalcogenide (TMD) sensitizers. Consequently, monolayer TMDs can achieve solid-state upconversion with a performance among the best reported.

2D materials↗

Design, construction, and testing of no-insulation small subscale solenoids for compact tokamaks

Fusion energy systems studies (FESS) for next-step devices based on the most promising magnetic configurations indicate that high magnetic fields and high current density for magnet coil systems may reduce device size and lower the cost. High current density and radiation resistant fusion magnets are particularly beneficial for low cost, low aspect ratio compact reactor designs such as Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FNSF), Fusion Pilot Plant (FPP) of low-aspect ratio spherical tokamak (ST) or compact stellarators. Unlike typical high field magnets for nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), or high energy physics research applications, neutron irradiation damage to organic insulations in the coil winding pack is a critical issue for next generation fusion reactors where orders of magnitude higher neutron fluence than those in present experimental reactors such as ITER are expected. Moreover, a high coil winding pack current density is needed for high field magnets in low cost, compact radial build next step fusion reactors. The slow current charging time, however, is an issue in fully non-insulated coils. In this work, we present the design, construction and testing of subscale Nb3Sn solenoids, up to half the diameter of the central solenoid (CS) for National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX), with and without inter-layer insulation for enhancing radiation resistance while improving the winding pack current density and coil performance. The major radius for the NSTX/NSTX-Upgrade (reference for compact ST) is 0.854/0.934 meter, and 4.8 meters for FNSF. The magnetic field for NSTX/NSTX-U at the plasma center is 0.6/1 Tesla and 9 Tesla for FNSF. The inner diameter of the central solenoid coil is 0.2/0.4 meter for NSTX/NSTX-U and 1.2 meters for FNSF. The current charging and discharging behavior of the prototype solenoids was investigated to quantify performance advantages of a simplified coil fabrication without error-prone vacuum pressure impregnation (VPI) for the removal of epoxy organic insulation. Scalability of the no insulation concept for fusion can be addressed via engineered coating for novel insulation on contact resistance or intra-layer no insulations. Radiation resistance and coil winding efficiency were significantly improved in the no insulation coils for next step compact fusion reactors.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

MOOSE: A Modular Platform for Fission and Fusion Multiphysics

The Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) Framework, as well as MOOSE-based simulation tools, have accelerated the development of fission energy and advanced reactor technologies through the United States Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Science, Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling & Simulation (NEAMS) Program. MOOSE contains a complete platform of multiphysics simulation capabilities, capable of running on massively parallel systems, and is developed in an open-source manner with great attention paid to high-quality software quality assurance practices. This overall approach could greatly benefit the fusion energy community, which requires rapid design iteration and improvement in order to facilitate the successful development of fusion as an alternative energy source to fossil fuels. In the first half of this talk, applications of MOOSE and MOOSE-based tools for advanced reactor designs will be showcased, as well as MOOSE ecosystem infrastructure (such as the NEAMS Virtual Test Bed) that enables and accelerates fission reactor design. In the second half, a discussion of how the MOOSE approach to modeling and simulation is currently being applied internationally in fusion energy research and development at the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority will be discussed, and ongoing/future domestic research efforts will be highlighted.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Nuclear safety Enhanced: A Deep dive into current and future RAVEN applications

As the horizon of nuclear energy expands with the advent of small modular reactors, IV generation reactors, and fusion reactors, there is a growing perspective that the licensing process could benefit from a more comprehensive approach. Moving beyond traditional deterministic and PRA analysis might pave the way for a novel safety analysis paradigm propelled by the increasing computational power at our disposal. This paper explores different methodologies that can improve the outcomes of nuclear safety analysis. These range from uncertainty quantification techniques, aimed at enhancing the precision of safety margins, to deploying dynamic event trees by driving system code simulations, capturing the potential evolutions of severe accidents. These methodologies introduce innovative dimensions to safety analysis, considering the consequences of postulated events and the dynamics of accident sequences. However, they also bring forth challenges, especially in managing the complexity and sheer volume of potential scenarios. The paper touches upon some strategies to counter these challenges, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and continuous evolution in the face of emerging nuclear safety concerns. Additionally, the paper sheds light on the need for advanced tools to apply these methodologies. Among these tools is RAVEN, an open-source software designed for parametric and probabilistic analyses. Its core components, including distribution, sampler, and reduced order model, enable various applications, from risk assessment and mitigation to dynamic learning and plant control logic simulations.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Low-Jitter Clock Receivers for Fast Timing Applications

Precision timing is a key requirement for emerging 4D particle tracking, Positron Emission Tomography (PET), beam and fusion plasma diagnostics, and other systems. Time-to-Digital Converters (TDCs) are commonly used to provide digital estimates of the relative timing between events, but the jitter performance of a TDC can be no better than the performance of the circuits that acquire the pulses and deliver them to the TDC. Several clock receiver and distribution circuits were evaluated, and a differential amplifier with resistive loads driving a pseudo-differential clock distribution network, developed using design guidelines for radiation tolerance and cryogenic compatibility, was fabricated as part of three prototypes: an analog front-end testbed chip for high-precision timing pixel readout, a dedicated TDC evaluation chip, and a Low-Gain Avalanche Detector (LGAD) readout circuit. Based on TDC measurements of the prototypes, we infer that the jitter added by the clock receiver and distribution circuits is less than 2.25 ps-rms. This performance meets the requirements of many future precision timing systems. The clock receiver and on-chip pseudo-differential driver were fabricated in commercial 28-nm CMOS technology and occupy 2288 µm 2 .

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

IAEA Photonuclear Data Library 2019

Here, photo-induced reaction cross section data are of importance for a variety of current or emerging applications, such as radiation shielding design and radiation transport analyses, calculations of absorbed dose in the human body during radiotherapy, physics and technology of fission reactors (influence of photo-reactions on neutron balance) and fusion reactors (plasma diagnostics and shielding), activation analyses, safeguards and inspection technologies, nuclear waste transmutation, medical isotope production and astrophysical applications. To address these data needs the IAEA Photonuclear Data library was produced in 1999, containing evaluated photo-induced cross sections and neutron spectra for 164 nuclides which were deemed relevant for the applications. Since the release of the IAEA Photonuclear Data Library however, new experimental data as well as new methods to assess the reliability of experimental cross sections have become available. Theoretical models and input parameters used to evaluate photo-induced reactions have improved significantly over the years. In addition, new measurements of partial photoneutron cross sections using mono-energetic photon beams and advanced neutron detection systems have been performed allowing for the validation of the evaluations and assessments of the experimental data. Furthermore, technological advances have led to the construction of new and more powerful gamma-beam facilities, therefore new data needs are emerging. We report our coordinated efforts to address these data needs and present the results of the new up-to-date evaluations included in the new updated IAEA Photonuclear Data Library consisting of 219 nuclides. The new library includes 188 new evaluations produced by the CRP evaluators, and one evaluation taken from the JENDL/PD-2016 library, while 20 evaluations were retained from the previous 1999 IAEA Photonuclear Data Library. In most of the cases, the photon energy goes up to 200 MeV. A total of 55 nuclides are new in this library reflecting the progress in measurements but also the developing data needs. In this paper we discuss the new assessment method and make recommendations to the user community in cases where the experimental data are discrepant and the assessments disagree. In addition, in the absence of experimental data, we present model predictions for photo-induced reaction cross section on nuclides of potential interest to medical radioisotope production.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Pulsed Thermal Tomography Nondestructive Examination of Additively Manufactured Reactor Materials and Components. Third Annual Progress Report

Additive manufacturing (AM) of high-strength corrosion resistance alloys for nuclear energy applications, such as stainless steel and Inconel, is currently based on laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process. Some of the challenges with using LPBF method for nuclear manufacturing include the possibility of introducing pores into metallic structures. Probability of crack initiation at the pore depends on size, shape, and orientation of the defect. Pulsed Infrared Thermography Imaging (PIT) provides a capability for non-destructive evaluation (NDE) of sub-surface defects in arbitrary size structures. The PIT method is based on recording material surface temperature transients with infrared (IR) camera following thermal pulse delivered on material surface with flash light. The PIT method has advantages for NDE of actual AM structures because the method involves one-sided non-contact measurements and fast processing of large sample areas captured in one image. Following initial qualification of an AM component for deployment in a nuclear reactor, a PIT system can also be used for in-service nondestructive evaluation (NDE) applications. In this report, we describe recent progress in enhancing PIT capabilities in detecting microscopic subsurface defects in metals, and classifying shapes and orientation of pores in thermal images. For detection of microscopic defects in PIT imaging data, we have developed Spatial Temporal Denoised Thermal Source Separation (STDTSS) unsupervised machine learning (ML) image processing algorithm. We show that flat bottom hole (FBH) defects as small as 200µm in SS316 and IN718 specimens, can be detected with STDTSS algorithm. To the best of our knowledge, these are the smallest detected defects which are reported in literature. For classification of defects shapes, we have previously developed thermal tomography (TT) algorithm to obtain depth reconstructions of material defects from data cube of sequentially recorded surface temperatures. However, interpretation of TT images is non-trivial because of blurring with increasing depth. To address this challenge, we have developed a deep learning convolutional neural network (CNN) to classify size and orientation subsurface defects in simulated TT images.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Multi-phenomenology Yield Characterization

This report serves as the first delivery of a four-year applied science effort to transform and advance the error bounds for the yield estimate of an explosion. Each year’s delivery will be in this form, culminating in the submission of this work for peer review to a scientific journal. Importantly, the yearly progress reports can then also be viewed as expanding drafts working towards a formal journal article submission. For the first tranche of funding, we collaborated with Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC) scientists to identify unclassified real-world data that demonstrate and validate our advanced error propagation methods. Collaboration includes visits to AFTAC and telecons. For this development, we illustrate the fusion of seismic, acoustic, optical, and surface effect signatures from an explosion. The mathematics and code being adapted to this specific application (Williams et al., 2021) involves physics models of multiple sensor signatures. We have also identified related physics models and have integrated them into code. Current methods of underground explosion yield estimation for the Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT) have served the US treaty monitoring mission well for decades. A research objective of the Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R&D) office of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has always been to provide new technical capabilities for monitoring lower thresholds. The general model and error propagation code to be developed in this project is based on significant advances in error modeling and propagation needed to analyze data at lower detection thresholds. The second tranche of funding for this project began on May 1, 2022, and planned work for the second tranche includes: i) completing the integration of physical model code into the general error model framework; this code accommodates a wide range of linear/nonlinear source models, fixed/ random effects, and frequentist/Bayesian analyses (the purpose of which is not to dictate to users how to analyze data, but instead to allow users the maximum flexibility in their work); ii) illustrative application of code to identified data, and; iii) initial planning with AFTAC researchers on delivery of code to the Common Development Environment at AFTAC, and continued writing of the planned final journal article submission (year two of this progress report), with particular emphasis on descriptions of data identified for this effort.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗