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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2011

Stacked Weak Lensing Mass Calibration: Estimators, Systematics, and Impact on Cosmological Parameter Constraints

When extracting the weak lensing shear signal, one may employ either locally normalized or globally normalized shear estimators. The former is the standard approach when estimating cluster masses, while the latter is the more common method among peak finding efforts. While both approaches have identical signal-to-noise in the weak lensing limit, it is possible that higher order corrections or systematic considerations make one estimator preferable over the other. In this paper, we consider the efficacy of both estimators within the context of stacked weak lensing mass estimation in the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We find that the two estimators have nearly identical statistical precision, even after including higher order corrections, but that these corrections must be incorporated into the analysis to avoid observationally relevant biases in the recovered masses. We also demonstrate that finite bin-width effects may be significant if not properly accounted for, and that the two estimators exhibit different systematics, particularly with respect to contamination of the source catalog by foreground galaxies. Thus, the two estimators may be employed as a systematic cross-check of each other. Stacked weak lensing in the DES should allow for the mean mass of galaxy clusters to be calibrated to {approx}2% precision (statistical only), which can improve the figure of merit of the DES cluster abundance experiment by a factor of {approx}3 relative to the self-calibration expectation. A companion paper investigates how the two types of estimators considered here impact weak lensing peak finding efforts.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2011

BLACK HOLE MASS ESTIMATES BASED ON C IV ARE CONSISTENT WITH THOSE BASED ON THE BALMER LINES

Using a sample of high-redshift lensed quasars from the CASTLES project with observed-frame ultraviolet or optical and near-infrared spectra, we have searched for possible biases between supermassive black hole (BH) mass estimates based on the C IV, H{alpha}, and H{beta} broad emission lines. Our sample is based upon that of Greene, Peng, and Ludwig, expanded with new near-IR spectroscopic observations, consistently analyzed high signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) optical spectra, and consistent continuum luminosity estimates at 5100 A. We find that BH mass estimates based on the full width at half-maximum (FWHM) of C IV show a systematic offset with respect to those obtained from the line dispersion, {sigma}{sub l}, of the same emission line, but not with those obtained from the FWHM of H{alpha} and H{beta}. The magnitude of the offset depends on the treatment of the He II and Fe II emission blended with C IV, but there is little scatter for any fixed measurement prescription. While we otherwise find no systematic offsets between C IV and Balmer line mass estimates, we do find that the residuals between them are strongly correlated with the ratio of the UV and optical continuum luminosities. This means that much of the dispersion in previous comparisons of C IV and H{beta} BH mass estimates are due to the continuum luminosities rather than to any properties of the lines. Removing this dependency reduces the scatter between the UV- and optical-based BH mass estimates by a factor of approximately two, from roughly 0.35 to 0.18 dex. The dispersion is smallest when comparing the C IV {sigma}{sub l} mass estimate, after removing the offset from the FWHM estimates, and either Balmer line mass estimate. The correlation with the continuum slope is likely due to a combination of reddening, host contamination, and object-dependent SED shapes. When we add additional heterogeneous measurements from the literature, the results are unchanged. Moreover, in a trial observation of a remaining outlier, the origin of the deviation is clearly due to unrecognized absorption in a low S/N spectrum. This not only highlights the importance of the quality of the observations, but also raises the question whether cases like this one are common in the literature, further biasing comparisons between C IV and other broad emission lines.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

REVERBERATION AND PHOTOIONIZATION ESTIMATES OF THE BROAD-LINE REGION RADIUS IN LOW-z QUASARS

Black hole mass estimation in quasars, especially at high redshift, involves the use of single-epoch spectra with signal-to-noise ratio and resolution that permit accurate measurement of the width of a broad line assumed to be a reliable virial estimator. Coupled with an estimate of the radius of the broad-line region (BLR) this yields the black hole mass M{sub BH}. The radius of the BLR may be inferred from an extrapolation of the correlation between source luminosity and reverberation-derived r{sub BLR} measures (the so-called Kaspi relation involving about 60 low-z sources). We are exploring a different method for estimating r{sub BLR} directly from inferred physical conditions in the BLR of each source. We report here on a comparison of r{sub BLR} estimates that come from our method and from reverberation mapping. Our ''photoionization'' method employs diagnostic line intensity ratios in the rest-frame range 1400-2000 A (Al III {lambda}1860/Si III] {lambda}1892, C IV {lambda}1549/Al III {lambda}1860) that enable derivation of the product of density and ionization parameter with the BLR distance derived from the definition of the ionization parameter. We find good agreement between our estimates of the density, ionization parameter, and r{sub BLR} and those from reverberation mapping. We suggest empirical corrections to improve the agreement between individual photoionization-derived r{sub BLR} values and those obtained from reverberation mapping. The results in this paper can be exploited to estimate M{sub BH} for large samples of high-z quasars using an appropriate virial broadening estimator. We show that the width of the UV intermediate emission lines are consistent with the width of H{beta}, thereby providing a reliable virial broadening estimator that can be measured in large samples of high-z quasars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validating and Comparing Energy Estimation Methods at Water Resource Recovery Facilities

Water resource recovery facilities play a crucial role in the water-energy nexus, consuming a substantial amount of energy in the United States. Growing treatment volumes and more stringent water quality standards are expected to increase the amount of energy needed to treat wastewater, but accurately estimating energy consumption and potential remains challenging due to variability in scale, treatment methods, and effluent treatment standards. In this study, we used publicly available data to evaluate the accuracy of methods for estimating energy consumption and generation, then quantified uncertainty based on key factors like flow rate, treatment level, and geographic location. To validate methods, we estimated energy consumption and generation at the facility-level, then compared estimates to self-reported data from utilities in major U.S. cities. We found that process models of treatment trains under best practice configurations were accurate relative to other methods for estimating electricity use, total energy use, and electricity generation from biogas utilization, and less complex methods based on effluent treatment level and prime movers also performed well for estimating electricity consumption and generation, respectively. Applying the evaluated methods to a national inventory of treatment facilities, we estimate that annual energy consumption ranged from 56.3 x 10^3 to 82.5 x 10^3 TJ in 2012 and 83.6 x 10^3 to 127 x 10^3 TJ in 2042. Our results indicate that not all estimation methods are suited for every use case, so we recommend that researchers and practitioners select an estimation method based on data availability and desired computational intensity.

Hodson, Abigayle↗
DOE OSTI2022

Do-calculus enables estimation of causal effects in partially observed biomolecular pathways

Abstract Motivation Estimating causal queries, such as changes in protein abundance in response to a perturbation, is a fundamental task in the analysis of biomolecular pathways. The estimation requires experimental measurements on the pathway components. However, in practice many pathway components are left unobserved (latent) because they are either unknown, or difficult to measure. Latent variable models (LVMs) are well-suited for such estimation. Unfortunately, LVM-based estimation of causal queries can be inaccurate when parameters of the latent variables are not uniquely identified, or when the number of latent variables is misspecified. This has limited the use of LVMs for causal inference in biomolecular pathways. Results In this article, we propose a general and practical approach for LVM-based estimation of causal queries. We prove that, despite the challenges above, LVM-based estimators of causal queries are accurate if the queries are identifiable according to Pearl’s do-calculus and describe an algorithm for its estimation. We illustrate the breadth and the practical utility of this approach for estimating causal queries in four synthetic and two experimental case studies, where structures of biomolecular pathways challenge the existing methods for causal query estimation. Availability and implementation The code and the data documenting all the case studies are available at https://github.com/srtaheri/LVMwithDoCalculus. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

A database for estimating organ dose for coronary angiography and brain perfusion CT scans for arbitrary spectra and angular tube current modulation

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop a database for estimating organ dose in a voxelized patient model for coronary angiography and brain perfusion CT acquisitions with any spectra and angular tube current modulation setting. The database enables organ dose estimation for existing and novel acquisition techniques without requiring Monte Carlo simulations. Methods: The study simulated transport of monoenergetic photons between 5 and 150 keV for 1000 projections over 360 Degree-Sign through anthropomorphic voxelized female chest and head (0 Degree-Sign and 30 Degree-Sign tilt) phantoms and standard head and body CTDI dosimetry cylinders. The simulations resulted in tables of normalized dose deposition for several radiosensitive organs quantifying the organ dose per emitted photon for each incident photon energy and projection angle for coronary angiography and brain perfusion acquisitions. The values in a table can be multiplied by an incident spectrum and number of photons at each projection angle and then summed across all energies and angles to estimate total organ dose. Scanner-specific organ dose may be approximated by normalizing the database-estimated organ dose by the database-estimated CTDI{sub vol} and multiplying by a physical CTDI{sub vol} measurement. Two examples are provided demonstrating how to use the tables to estimate relative organ dose. In the first, the change in breast and lung dose during coronary angiography CT scans is calculated for reduced kVp, angular tube current modulation, and partial angle scanning protocols relative to a reference protocol. In the second example, the change in dose to the eye lens is calculated for a brain perfusion CT acquisition in which the gantry is tilted 30 Degree-Sign relative to a nontilted scan. Results: Our database provides tables of normalized dose deposition for several radiosensitive organs irradiated during coronary angiography and brain perfusion CT scans. Validation results indicate total organ doses calculated using our database are within 1% of those calculated using Monte Carlo simulations with the same geometry and scan parameters for all organs except red bone marrow (within 6%), and within 23% of published estimates for different voxelized phantoms. Results from the example of using the database to estimate organ dose for coronary angiography CT acquisitions show 2.1%, 1.1%, and -32% change in breast dose and 2.1%, -0.74%, and 4.7% change in lung dose for reduced kVp, tube current modulated, and partial angle protocols, respectively, relative to the reference protocol. Results show -19.2% difference in dose to eye lens for a tilted scan relative to a nontilted scan. The reported relative changes in organ doses are presented without quantification of image quality and are for the sole purpose of demonstrating the use of the proposed database. Conclusions: The proposed database and calculation method enable the estimation of organ dose for coronary angiography and brain perfusion CT scans utilizing any spectral shape and angular tube current modulation scheme by taking advantage of the precalculated Monte Carlo simulation results. The database can be used in conjunction with image quality studies to develop optimized acquisition techniques and may be particularly beneficial for optimizing dual kVp acquisitions for which numerous kV, mA, and filtration combinations may be investigated.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

An angle-dependent estimation of CT x-ray spectrum from rotational transmission measurements

Purpose: Computed tomography (CT) performance as well as dose and image quality is directly affected by the x-ray spectrum. However, the current assessment approaches of the CT x-ray spectrum require costly measurement equipment and complicated operational procedures, and are often limited to the spectrum corresponding to the center of rotation. In order to address these limitations, the authors propose an angle-dependent estimation technique, where the incident spectra across a wide range of angular trajectories can be estimated accurately with only a single phantom and a single axial scan in the absence of the knowledge of the bowtie filter. Methods: The proposed technique uses a uniform cylindrical phantom, made of ultra-high-molecular-weight polyethylene and positioned in an off-centered geometry. The projection data acquired with an axial scan have a twofold purpose. First, they serve as a reflection of the transmission measurements across different angular trajectories. Second, they are used to reconstruct the cross sectional image of the phantom, which is then utilized to compute the intersection length of each transmission measurement. With each CT detector element recording a range of transmission measurements for a single angular trajectory, the spectrum is estimated for that trajectory. A data conditioning procedure is used to combine information from hundreds of collected transmission measurements to accelerate the estimation speed, to reduce noise, and to improve estimation stability. The proposed spectral estimation technique was validated experimentally using a clinical scanner (Somatom Definition Flash, Siemens Healthcare, Germany) with spectra provided by the manufacturer serving as the comparison standard. Results obtained with the proposed technique were compared against those obtained from a second conventional transmission measurement technique with two materials (i.e., Cu and Al). After validation, the proposed technique was applied to measure spectra from the clinical system across a range of angular trajectories [−15°, 15°] and spectrum settings (80, 100, 120, 140 kVp). Results: At 140 kVp, the proposed technique was comparable to the conventional technique in terms of the mean energy difference (MED, −0.29 keV) and the normalized root mean square difference (NRMSD, 0.84%) from the comparison standard compared to 0.64 keV and 1.56%, respectively, with the conventional technique. The average absolute MEDs and NRMSDs across kVp settings and angular trajectories were less than 0.61 keV and 3.41%, respectively, which indicates a high level of estimation accuracy and stability. Conclusions: An angle-dependent estimation technique of CT x-ray spectra from rotational transmission measurements was proposed. Compared with the conventional technique, the proposed method simplifies the measurement procedures and enables incident spectral estimation for a wide range of angular trajectories. The proposed technique is suitable for rigorous research objectives as well as routine clinical quality control procedures.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Patient-based estimation of organ dose for a population of 58 adult patients across 13 protocol categories

Purpose: This study aimed to provide a comprehensive patient-specific organ dose estimation across a multiplicity of computed tomography (CT) examination protocols. Methods: A validated Monte Carlo program was employed to model a common CT system (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare). The organ and effective doses were estimated from 13 commonly used body and neurological CT examination. The dose estimation was performed on 58 adult computational extended cardiac-torso phantoms (35 male, 23 female, mean age 51.5 years, mean weight 80.2 kg). The organ dose normalized by CTDI{sub vol} (h factor) and effective dose normalized by the dose length product (DLP) (k factor) were calculated from the results. A mathematical model was derived for the correlation between the h and k factors with the patient size across the protocols. Based on this mathematical model, a dose estimation iPhone operating system application was designed and developed to be used as a tool to estimate dose to the patients for a variety of routinely used CT examinations. Results: The organ dose results across all the protocols showed an exponential decrease with patient body size. The correlation was generally strong for the organs which were fully or partially located inside the scan coverage (Pearson sample correlation coefficient (r) of 0.49). The correlation was weaker for organs outside the scan coverage for which distance between the organ and the irradiation area was a stronger predictor of dose to the organ. For body protocols, the effective dose before and after normalization by DLP decreased exponentially with increasing patient's body diameter (r > 0.85). The exponential relationship between effective dose and patient's body diameter was significantly weaker for neurological protocols (r < 0.41), where the trunk length was a slightly stronger predictor of effective dose (0.15 < r < 0.46). Conclusions: While the most accurate estimation of a patient dose requires specific modeling of the patient anatomy, a first order approximation of organ and effective doses from routine CT scan protocols can be reasonably estimated using size specific factors. Estimation accuracy is generally poor for organ outside the scan range and for neurological protocols. The dose calculator designed in this study can be used to conveniently estimate and report the dose values for a patient across a multiplicity of CT scan protocols.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computational Estimation by Scientific Data Mining with Classical Methods to Automate Learning Strategies of Scientists

Experimental results are often plotted as 2-dimensional graphical plots (aka graphs) in scientific domains depicting dependent versus independent variables to aid visual analysis of processes. Repeatedly performing laboratory experiments consumes significant time and resources, motivating the need for computational estimation. The goals are to estimate the graph obtained in an experiment given its input conditions, and to estimate the conditions that would lead to a desired graph. Existing estimation approaches often do not meet accuracy and efficiency needs of targeted applications. We develop a computational estimation approach called AutoDomainMine that integrates clustering and classification over complex scientific data in a framework so as to automate classical learning methods of scientists. Knowledge discovered thereby from a database of existing experiments serves as the basis for estimation. Challenges include preserving domain semantics in clustering, finding matching strategies in classification, striking a good balance between elaboration and conciseness while displaying estimation results based on needs of targeted users, and deriving objective measures to capture subjective user interests. These and other challenges are addressed in this work. The AutoDomainMine approach is used to build a computational estimation system, rigorously evaluated with real data in Materials Science. Our evaluation confirms that AutoDomainMine provides desired accuracy and efficiency in computational estimation. It is extendable to other science and engineering domains as proved by adaptation of its sub-processes within fields such as Bioinformatics and Nanotechnology.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2019

CatCost™ (Catalyst Cost Estimation Tool) [SWR-18-74]

CatCost™ is a state-of-the-art cost estimation tool designed to reduce the cost uncertainty associated with pre-commercial catalyst materials. The tool combines industry-standard cost estimation methods and resources into an intuitive suite of tools to bring actionable cost insight to every step of catalyst research and development. CatCost™ allows the rapid development of comprehensive catalyst cost estimates. It incorporates detailed insight into manufacturing methods, especially for pre-commercial catalysts, without requiring any process design experience. The tool has been designed from the ground up with a number of user-selectable estimation methods, pricing libraries, and ease-of-use features to tailor an estimate to a user's skill level and need for customization, empowering researchers of all skill-levels to make better R&D decisions throughout the catalyst development cycle. Our costing methods are fully transparent and enable power-users the ability to adjust any estimate to the economic realities of their operation. The tool has been designed from the ground up with a number of user-selectable estimation methods, pricing libraries, and ease-of-use features to tailor an estimate to a user's skill level and need for customization, empowering researchers of all skill-levels to make better R&D decisions throughout the catalyst development cycle. Our costing methods are fully transparent and enable power-users the ability to adjust any estimate to the economic realities of their operation. Features include: Raw materials pricing: Libraries of common chemicals, cost scaling indices, guidance for obtaining bulk quotes, and methods for extrapolating laboratory-scale prices to bulk. Simplified step method for synthesis by a contract manufacturer: All-in hourly cost for process equipment using methods and data from tollers. (Excel-only in v1.0)

Baddour, Frederick↗
DOE OSTI2016

Comparison of Global Precipitation Estimates across a Range of Temporal and Spatial Scales

Characteristics of precipitation estimates for rate and amount from three global high-resolution precipitation products (HRPPs), four global climate data records (CDRs), and four reanalyses are compared. All datasets considered have at least daily temporal resolution. Estimates of global precipitation differ widely from one product to the next, with some differences likely due to differing goals in producing the estimates. HRPPs are intended to produce the best snapshot of the precipitation estimate locally. CDRs of precipitation emphasize homogeneity over instantaneous accuracy. Precipitation estimates from global reanalyses are dynamically consistent with the large-scale circulation but tend to compare poorly to rain gauge estimates since they are forecast by the reanalysis system and precipitation is not assimilated. Regional differences among the estimates in the means and variances are as large as the means and variances, respectively. Even with similar monthly totals, precipitation rates vary significantly among the estimates. Temporal correlations among datasets are large at annual and daily time scales, suggesting that compensating bias errors at annual and random errors at daily time scales dominate the differences. However, the signal-to-noise ratio at intermediate (monthly) time scales can be large enough to result in high correlations overall. It is shown that differences on annual time scales and continental regions are around 0.8 mm day -1 , which corresponds to 23 W m -2 . These wide variations in the estimates, even for global averages, highlight the need for better constrained precipitation products in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ordovician-Cambrian Units: Hierarchical Evaluation of Geologic Carbon Storage Resource Estimates

The Indiana Geological and Water Survey (IGWS) led subtask 1.1 to assess the regional distribution and estimate the storage capacity of Ordovician-Cambrian stratigraphic units located within the partnership region. A comprehensive data set of wireline logs and petrophysical information was used to generate these interpretations. These data include core analysis for porosity and permeability, mercury injection capillary pressure (MICP), and existing well data including location and stratigraphic information. This report includes storage resource estimates (SREs) for three potential storage reservoirs(limestone and dolostone from the Upper Ordovician Trenton Limestone/Black River Group and equivalent units, the Middle Ordovician St. Peter Sandstone, and primary target reservoir rocks of the Lower Ordovician and Upper Cambrian Knox Supergroup and equivalent units) calculated using six methodologies: (1) a fixed value of porosity of 10 percent in all units evaluated; (2) a unique average porosity (per well) from wireline-derived porosity (neutron, sonic, and/or density porosity for each unit); (3) porosity values from core analysis; (4) a depth-dependent porosity model (Knox Supergroup only); (5) porosity based on a model based on petrophysical facies; and (6) SREs using National Energy Technology Laboratory’s CO2 Storage prospeCtive Resource Estimation Excel aNalysis (CO2-SCREEN beta V2). All methods used the same values for thickness for each unit. However, the areal extent of each assessment was limited by the data available for each method. Estimated volumes were calculated in 1-by-1 kilometer grid cells and summarized as county and total stratigraphic unit volumes. The resultant SREs mass are displayed using boxplots, which allow for comparing data statistics (mean values and variability) between methods. Differences observed in SRE results from the six methods are mainly attributable to differences in the data and conceptual models used to interpret or estimate porosity in each method. Based on this systematic variability between methods, it is inferred that methods 1, 4, and 6 are best used for regional-scale reconnaissance estimates of storage capacity while methods 2, 3, and 5 are more appropriate for local scales where more data is required. All estimates are data-density dependent and different methods require different amounts of data for reasonable assessments. ArcMap 10.5.1 software was used to portray SREs to help visualize spatial variance of estimates for each methodology, and more importantly, to highlight those areas having the greatest total storage potential estimates.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2021

Utilizing Earth Observations of Soil Freeze/Thaw Data and Atmospheric Concentrations to Estimate Cold Season Methane Emissions in the Northern High Latitudes

The northern wetland methane emission estimates have large uncertainties. Inversion models are a qualified method to estimate the methane fluxes and emissions in northern latitudes but when atmospheric observations are sparse, the models are only as good as their a priori estimates. Thus, improving a priori estimates is a competent way to reduce uncertainties and enhance emission estimates in the sparsely sampled regions. Here, we use a novel way to integrate remote sensing soil freeze/thaw (F/T) status from SMOS satellite to better capture the seasonality of methane emissions in the northern high latitude. The SMOS F/T data provide daily information of soil freezing state in the northern latitudes, and in this study, the data is used to define the cold season in the high latitudes and, thus, improve our knowledge of the seasonal cycle of biospheric methane fluxes. The SMOS F/T data is implemented to LPX-Bern DYPTOP model estimates and the modified fluxes are used as a biospheric a priori in the inversion model CarbonTracker Europe-CH 4 . The implementation of the SMOS F/T soil state is shown to be beneficial in improving the inversion model’s cold season biospheric flux estimates. Our results show that cold season biospheric CH4 emissions in northern high latitudes are approximately 0.60 Tg lower than previously estimated, which corresponds to 17% reduction in the cold season biospheric emissions. This reduction is partly compensated by increased anthropogenic emissions in the same area (0.23 Tg), and the results also indicates that the anthropogenic emissions could have even larger contribution in cold season than estimated here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Nonparametric estimators for incomplete surveys

Nonparametric estimators, such as the 1/V{sub max} estimator and the C{sup −} estimator, have been applied extensively to estimate luminosity functions (LFs) of astronomical sources from complete, truncated survey data sets. Application of such estimators to incomplete data sets typically requires further truncation of data, separation into subsets of constant completeness, and/or correction for incompleteness-induced bias. In this paper, we derive generalizations of the above estimators designed for use with incomplete, truncated data sets. We compare these generalized nonparametric estimators, investigate some of their simple statistical properties, and validate them using Monte Carlo simulation methods. We apply a nonparametric estimator to data obtained from the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey to estimate the QSO LF for redshifts 0.68<z<4.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multifidelity Monte Carlo estimation for efficient uncertainty quantification in climate-related modeling

Abstract. Uncertainties in an output of interest that depends on the solution of a complex system (e.g., of partial differential equations with random inputs) are often, if not nearly ubiquitously, determined in practice using Monte Carlo (MC) estimation. While simple to implement, MC estimation fails to provide reliable information about statistical quantities (such as the expected value of the output of interest) in application settings such as climate modeling, for which obtaining a single realization of the output of interest is a costly endeavor. Specifically, the dilemma encountered is that many samples of the output of interest have to be collected in order to obtain an MC estimator that has sufficient accuracy – so many, in fact, that the available computational budget is not large enough to effect the number of samples needed. To circumvent this dilemma, we consider using multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) estimation which leverages the use of less costly and less accurate surrogate models (such as coarser grids, reduced-order models, simplified physics, and/or interpolants) to achieve, for the same computational budget, higher accuracy compared to that obtained by an MC estimator – or, looking at it another way, an MFMC estimator obtains the same accuracy as the MC estimator at lower computational cost. The key to the efficacy of MFMC estimation is the fact that most of the required computational budget is loaded onto the less costly surrogate models so that very few samples are taken of the more expensive model of interest. We first provide a more detailed discussion about the need to consider an alternative to MC estimation for uncertainty quantification. Subsequently, we present a review, in an abstract setting, of the MFMC approach along with its application to three climate-related benchmark problems as a proof-of-concept exercise.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

A sparse reconstruction method for the estimation of multi-resolution emission fields via atmospheric inversion

Atmospheric inversions are frequently used to estimate fluxes of atmospheric greenhouse gases (e.g., biospheric CO 2 flux fields) at Earth's surface. These inversions typically assume that flux departures from a prior model are spatially smoothly varying, which are then modeled using a multi-variate Gaussian. When the field being estimated is spatially rough, multi-variate Gaussian models are difficult to construct and a wavelet-based field model may be more suitable. Unfortunately, such models are very high dimensional and are most conveniently used when the estimation method can simultaneously perform data-driven model simplification (removal of model parameters that cannot be reliably estimated) and fitting. Such sparse reconstruction methods are typically not used in atmospheric inversions. In this work, we devise a sparse reconstruction method, and illustrate it in an idealized atmospheric inversion problem for the estimation of fossil fuel CO 2 (ffCO 2 ) emissions in the lower 48 states of the USA. Our new method is based on stagewise orthogonal matching pursuit (StOMP), a method used to reconstruct compressively sensed images. Our adaptations bestow three properties to the sparse reconstruction procedure which are useful in atmospheric inversions. We have modified StOMP to incorporate prior information on the emission field being estimated and to enforce non-negativity on the estimated field. Finally, though based on wavelets, our method allows for the estimation of fields in non-rectangular geometries, e.g., emission fields inside geographical and political boundaries. Our idealized inversions use a recently developed multi-resolution (i.e., wavelet-based) random field model developed for ffCO 2 emissions and synthetic observations of ffCO 2 concentrations from a limited set of measurement sites. We find that our method for limiting the estimated field within an irregularly shaped region is about a factor of 10 faster than conventional approaches. It also reduces the overall computational cost by a factor of 2. Further, the sparse reconstruction scheme imposes non-negativity without introducing strong nonlinearities, such as those introduced by employing log-transformed fields, and thus reaps the benefits of simplicity and computational speed that are characteristic of linear inverse problems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1982

Effect of counting and tracking on verbal and production methods of time estimation

The effects of time estimation technique and task condition on the production and verbal estimation of time intervals ranging from 5 to 14 sec were investigated. The duration of time intervals during each task condition pretracking, tracking (subject performed a one-axis tracking), and posttracking was estimated by the subjects. The ratio of the subject's time estimate to actual interval length was computed for each trial. Productions were typically longer than verbal estimates of the same duration and produced durations were typically too long whereas verbal estimates were too short relative to the correct duration. A significant interaction was found between counting technique and tracking condition for both estimation methods. A significant effect could be attributed to the addition of a tracking task: produced durations increased in length, whereas verbal estimates decreased in length. The durations produced without counting were significantly less accurate and consistent with the addition of a tracking task. Verbal estimation mean accuracy, but not consistency, was adversely affected by the addition of a tracking task when the subjects were instructed not to count.

Bird, K. L.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Compound estimation procedures in reliability

At NASA, components and subsystems of components in the Space Shuttle and Space Station generally go through a number of redesign stages. While data on failures for various design stages are sometimes available, the classical procedures for evaluating reliability only utilize the failure data on the present design stage of the component or subsystem. Often, few or no failures have been recorded on the present design stage. Previously, Bayesian estimators for the reliability of a single component, conditioned on the failure data for the present design, were developed. These new estimators permit NASA to evaluate the reliability, even when few or no failures have been recorded. Point estimates for the latter evaluation were not possible with the classical procedures. Since different design stages of a component (or subsystem) generally have a good deal in common, the development of new statistical procedures for evaluating the reliability, which consider the entire failure record for all design stages, has great intuitive appeal. A typical subsystem consists of a number of different components and each component has evolved through a number of redesign stages. The present investigations considered compound estimation procedures and related models. Such models permit the statistical consideration of all design stages of each component and thus incorporate all the available failure data to obtain estimates for the reliability of the present version of the component (or subsystem). A number of models were considered to estimate the reliability of a component conditioned on its total failure history from two design stages. It was determined that reliability estimators for the present design stage, conditioned on the complete failure history for two design stages have lower risk than the corresponding estimators conditioned only on the most recent design failure data. Several models were explored and preliminary models involving bivariate Poisson distribution and the Consael Process (a bivariate Poisson process) were developed. Possible short comings of the models are noted. An example is given to illustrate the procedures. These investigations are ongoing with the aim of developing estimators that extend to components (and subsystems) with three or more design stages.

Barnes, Ron↗