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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Characterization of XR-RV3 GafChromic{sup ®} films in standard laboratory and in clinical conditions and means to evaluate uncertainties and reduce errors

Purpose: To investigate the optimal use of XR-RV3 GafChromic{sup ®} films to assess patient skin dose in interventional radiology while addressing the means to reduce uncertainties in dose assessment. Methods: XR-Type R GafChromic films have been shown to represent the most efficient and suitable solution to determine patient skin dose in interventional procedures. As film dosimetry can be associated with high uncertainty, this paper presents the EURADOS WG 12 initiative to carry out a comprehensive study of film characteristics with a multisite approach. The considered sources of uncertainties include scanner, film, and fitting-related errors. The work focused on studying film behavior with clinical high-dose-rate pulsed beams (previously unavailable in the literature) together with reference standard laboratory beams. Results: First, the performance analysis of six different scanner models has shown that scan uniformity perpendicular to the lamp motion axis and that long term stability are the main sources of scanner-related uncertainties. These could induce errors of up to 7% on the film readings unless regularly checked and corrected. Typically, scan uniformity correction matrices and reading normalization to the scanner-specific and daily background reading should be done. In addition, the analysis on multiple film batches has shown that XR-RV3 films have generally good uniformity within one batch (<1.5%), require 24 h to stabilize after the irradiation and their response is roughly independent of dose rate (<5%). However, XR-RV3 films showed large variations (up to 15%) with radiation quality both in standard laboratory and in clinical conditions. As such, and prior to conducting patient skin dose measurements, it is mandatory to choose the appropriate calibration beam quality depending on the characteristics of the x-ray systems that will be used clinically. In addition, yellow side film irradiations should be preferentially used since they showed a lower dependence on beam parameters compared to white side film irradiations. Finally, among the six different fit equations tested in this work, typically used third order polynomials and more rational and simplistic equations, of the form dose inversely proportional to pixel value, were both found to provide satisfactory results. Fitting-related uncertainty was clearly identified as a major contributor to the overall film dosimetry uncertainty with up to 40% error on the dose estimate. Conclusions: The overall uncertainty associated with the use of XR-RV3 films to determine skin dose in the interventional environment can realistically be estimated to be around 20% (k = 1). This uncertainty can be reduced to within 5% if carefully monitoring scanner, film, and fitting-related errors or it can easily increase to over 40% if minimal care is not taken. This work demonstrates the importance of appropriate calibration, reading, fitting, and other film-related and scan-related processes, which will help improve the accuracy of skin dose measurements in interventional procedures.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

TU-AB-202-03: Prediction of PET Transfer Uncertainty by DIR Error Estimating Software, AUTODIRECT

Purpose: Deformable image registration (DIR) is a powerful tool, but DIR errors can adversely affect its clinical applications. To estimate voxel-specific DIR uncertainty, a software tool, called AUTODIRECT (automated DIR evaluation of confidence tool), has been developed and validated. This work tests the ability of this software to predict uncertainty for the transfer of standard uptake values (SUV) from positron-emission tomography (PET) with DIR. Methods: Virtual phantoms are used for this study. Each phantom has a planning computed tomography (CT) image and a diagnostic PET-CT image set. A deformation was digitally applied to the diagnostic CT to create the planning CT image and establish a known deformation between the images. One lung and three rectum patient datasets were employed to create the virtual phantoms. Both of these sites have difficult deformation scenarios associated with them, which can affect DIR accuracy (lung tissue sliding and changes in rectal filling). The virtual phantoms were created to simulate these scenarios by introducing discontinuities in the deformation field at the lung rectum border. The DIR algorithm from Plastimatch software was applied to these phantoms. The SUV mapping errors from the DIR were then compared to that predicted by AUTODIRECT. Results: The SUV error distributions closely followed the AUTODIRECT predicted error distribution for the 4 test cases. The minimum and maximum PET SUVs were produced from AUTODIRECT at 95% confidence interval before applying gradient-based SUV segmentation for each of these volumes. Notably, 93.5% of the target volume warped by the true deformation was included within the AUTODIRECT-predicted maximum SUV volume after the segmentation, while 78.9% of the target volume was within the target volume warped by Plastimatch. Conclusion: The AUTODIRECT framework is able to predict PET transfer uncertainty caused by DIR, which enables an understanding of the associated target volume uncertainty.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the Contributions to Human Error Probability from the Convolution of the Distribution of Time Available and Time Required

As part of their duties, Human Reliability Analysis must often evaluate if crews in nuclear power plants (NPPs) can complete tasks associated with a human-failure event within time limits. For example, the time required in NPP scenarios is determined by systematic and structured walkthroughs, feasibility studies, recorded times from training exercises, and interviews with experienced operators and experts. Typically, a point estimate is derived for the estimate (mean, maximum, or 95th percentile of time required). Using point-estimate values can mask the risk associated with variability among crews, plant conditions and set-up, environmental conditions, and other impact factors under which these actions are executed. While point estimates for time required and time available have served the industry well, without considering the uncertainty they could lead to biased understanding about the risk. The Integrated Human Event Analysis System - General Methodology (IDHEAS-G) model (developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC) for human error probability calculates human error probability by summing two probabilities: insufficient time and cognitive error. As such, the model takes a more holistic approach by considering the full distributions for time required and time available to calculate the human error probability because the time available to complete the task is insufficient. In this study, we expand on the work of the NRC and discuss methods for estimating these time considerations. For example, for the time required, the impact of Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) on the distribution was divided into impacts that are aleatory in nature, such as crew-to-crew variability, and those that are epistemic (i.e., the PIFs). Starting with the factors that introduce aleatory uncertainty, a first-order distribution was developed from a large set of time required (i.e., NPP task completion times) data for the range of operator actions that occur in the NPP control room under simulated accident conditions. The first-order distribution can then be adjusted to account for epistemic uncertainty using research associated with the impact of applicable PIFs on the time required. We also develop guidance for analysts to address the probability distributions for the time available. The guidance we developed on how to estimate time required and time available distributions is based on the identification of pertinent research and data, data analyses, and expert knowledge elicitation.

human error probability, human performance, time e↗
DOE OSTI2014

Effects of Spectral Error in Efficiency Measurements of GaInAs-Based Concentrator Solar Cells

This technical report documents a particular error in efficiency measurements of triple-absorber concentrator solar cells caused by incorrect spectral irradiance -- specifically, one that occurs when the irradiance from unfiltered, pulsed xenon solar simulators into the GaInAs bottom subcell is too high. For cells designed so that the light-generated photocurrents in the three subcells are nearly equal, this condition can cause a large increase in the measured fill factor, which, in turn, causes a significant artificial increase in the efficiency. The error is readily apparent when the data under concentration are compared to measurements with correctly balanced photocurrents, and manifests itself as discontinuities in plots of fill factor and efficiency versus concentration ratio. In this work, we simulate the magnitudes and effects of this error with a device-level model of two concentrator cell designs, and demonstrate how a new Spectrolab, Inc., Model 460 Tunable-High Intensity Pulsed Solar Simulator (T-HIPSS) can mitigate the error.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Conceptual Interpretation of First and Second Kinds of Errors at Management Mode Selection under Conditions of Its Possible Crisis State

Errors in the selection of management practices at an enterprise confronting the prospect of crisis are considered: specifically, the adoption of standard management during a crisis; or crisis management when no crisis exists. By analogy with classical approaches in probability theory and operational research, such errors are interpreted as errors of the first and second kind. The basic problems arising from such errors are identified, and some measures are proposed for reducing their likelihood. The results should prove useful to managers at industrial enterprises, consulting firms, developers of management systems, and the faculty at universities and staff-training centers.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Utilizing physics-based input features within a machine learning model to predict wind speed forecasting error

Machine learning is quickly becoming a commonly used technique for wind speed and power forecasting. Many machine learning methods utilize exogenous variables as input features, but there remains the question of which atmospheric variables are most beneficial for forecasting, especially in handling non-linearities that lead to forecasting error. This question is addressed via creation of a hybrid model that utilizes an autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model to make an initial wind speed forecast followed by a random forest model that attempts to predict the ARIMA forecasting error using knowledge of exogenous atmospheric variables. Variables conveying information about atmospheric stability and turbulence as well as inertial forcing are found to be useful in dealing with non-linear error prediction. Streamwise wind speed, time of day, turbulence intensity, turbulent heat flux, vertical velocity, and wind direction are found to be particularly useful when used in unison for hourly and 3 h timescales. The prediction accuracy of the developed ARIMA–random forest hybrid model is compared to that of the persistence and bias-corrected ARIMA models. The ARIMA–random forest model is shown to improve upon the latter commonly employed modeling methods, reducing hourly forecasting error by up to 5 % below that of the bias-corrected ARIMA model and achieving an R 2 value of 0.84 with true wind speed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Simulating wind power forecast error distributions for spatially aggregated wind power plants

Dispersion and aggregation of wind power plants lower the uncertainty of wind power by reducing wind power forecasting errors. Using quantitative methods, this paper studies the dispersion's impact on the uncertainty of the aggregated wind power production. A method to simulate day-ahead forecast error distributions at different dispersion and forecasting skill scenarios is presented. The proposed method models the uncertainty of wind power forecasting on an annual basis and at different levels of production. As a result, the uncertainty in the forecasting of spatially dispersed wind power plants is modelled using two continuous distributions: Laplace and beta distribution. The analysis shows that even the production level uncertainty can be modelled in various dispersion and forecasting skill scenarios. The model for aggregated forecast error distributions requires only four variables: capacity-weighted distance of the total wind power plant fleet, mean of the site-specific mean absolute errors (MAEs), number of aggregated wind power plants, and the mean variability of the elevations from the proximities of the aggregated wind power plants. Here, the results are especially promising when the number of aggregated wind power plants exceeds five, the terrain complexity is low or moderate, and the aggregation region is large. This is demonstrated through a case study for Texas, United States.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantum error correction in the black hole interior

We study the quantum error correction properties of the black hole interior in a toy model for an evaporating black hole: Jackiw-Teitelboim gravity entangled with a non-gravitational bath. After the Page time, the black hole interior degrees of freedom in this system are encoded in the bath Hilbert space. We use the gravitational path integral to show that the interior density matrix is correctable against the action of quantum operations on the bath which (i) do not have prior access to details of the black hole microstates, and (ii) do not have a large, negative coherent information with respect to the maximally mixed state on the bath, with the lower bound controlled by the black hole entropy and code subspace dimension. Thus, the encoding of the black hole interior in the radiation is robust against generic, low-rank quantum operations. For erasure errors, gravity comes within an O (1) distance of saturating the Singleton bound on the tolerance of error correcting codes. For typical errors in the bath to corrupt the interior, they must have a rank that is a large multiple of the bath Hilbert space dimension, with the precise coefficient set by the black hole entropy and code subspace dimension.

2D gravity↗
DOE OSTI2019

A posteriori error estimation and adaptivity in hp virtual elements

An explicit and computable error estimator for the hp version of the virtual element method (VEM), together with lower and upper bounds with respect to the exact energy error, is presented. Such error estimator is employed to provide, following the approach of Melenk and Wohlmuth (Adv Comput Math 15(1–4):311–331, 2001), hp adaptive mesh refinements for very general polygonal meshes. In addition, a novel VEM hp Clément quasi-interpolant, instrumental for the a posteriori error analysis, is introduced. The performances of the adaptive method are validated by a number of numerical experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reynolds stress tensor measurements using magnetic resonance velocimetry: expansion of the dynamic measurement range and analysis of systematic measurement errors

This study presents magnetic resonance velocimetry (MRV) Reynolds Stress measurements in a periodic hill channel with a hill Reynolds number of Re = 29,500. The velocity encoding scheme is based on the ICOSA6 method with six icosahedral encoding directions and multiple encoding values are measured to increase the dynamic range. The full Reynolds stress tensor is obtained from a voxel-wise three-dimensional Gaussian fit using the magnitude data of all acquisitions. The MRV results are compared to a wall-resolved large eddy simulation and laser Doppler velocimetry measurements conducted in the same channel. It is shown that the MRV Reynolds stress data have excellent precision and agree qualitatively with the reference data. However, there are apparent systematic deviations. One of the most prominent error contributions is the signal attenuation caused by higher orders of motion, which leads to an overestimation of the turbulence level. Another fundamental error is identified in the assumption that the turbulence is Gaussian distributed. With the presented reconstruction technique, the MRV data are fitted to a statistical model, and depending on the examined flow setup, the Gaussian model can lead to considerable errors. Possible ways of how to reduce all identified errors are presented. In summary, this technique enables Reynolds stress tensor measurements in complex internal flows with high dynamic range and excellent precision. However, several issues need to be resolved to make the turbulence quantification more accurate.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Error estimates of finite difference methods for the Dirac equation in the massless and nonrelativistic regime

We present four frequently used finite difference methods and establish the error bounds for the discretization of the Dirac equation in the massless and nonrelativistic regime, involving a small dimensionless parameter 0 < ε &NestedLessLess; 1 inversely proportional to the speed of light. In the massless and nonrelativistic regime, the solution exhibits rapid motion in space and is highly oscillatory in time. Specifically, the wavelength of the propagating waves in time is at O(ε), while in space, it is at O(1) with the wave speed at O(ε -1 ). We adopt one leap-frog, two semi-implicit, and one conservative Crank-Nicolson finite difference methods to numerically discretize the Dirac equation in one dimension and establish rigorously the error estimates which depend explicitly on the time step τ, mesh size h, and the small parameter ε. The error bounds indicate that, to obtain the “correct” numerical solution in the massless and nonrelativistic regime, i.e., 0 < ε &NestedLessLess; 1, all these finite difference methods share the same ε-scalability as time step τ = O(ε 3/2 ) and mesh size h = O(ε 1/2 ). A large number of numerical results are reported to verify the error estimates.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interlaboratory Study of Digital Volume Correlation Error Due to X-Ray Computed Tomography Equipment and Scan Parameters: an Update from the DVC Challenge

Background: The quality of Digital Volume Correlation (DVC) full-field displacement measurements depends directly on the characteristics of the X-ray Computed Tomography (XCT) equipment, and scan procedures used to acquire the tomographic images. Objective: In this work, we seek to experimentally study the effects of XCT equipment and tomographic scan procedures on the quality of these images for DVC analysis, and to survey the level of DVC error that may be achieved using standard XCT operating procedures. Methods: Six participants in an interlaboratory study acquired high-quality XCT scans of a syntactic foam before and after rigid body motion. The resulting images were correlated using commercial DVC software to quantify error sources due to random image noise, reconstruction artifacts, as well as systematic spatial or temporal distortion. Results: In the absence of rigid body motion, the standard deviation of the displacement measurements ranged from 0.012 to 0.043 voxels using a moderate subvolume size, indicating that subvoxel measurement resolution could readily be achieved with a variety of XCT equipment and scan recipes. Comparison of consecutive scans without rigid body motion showed transient dilatational displacement gradients due to self-heating of the X-ray source and/or thermal expansion of the foam. Evaluation of the scans after rigid body motion showed significant, machine-specific spatial distortion in the displacement fields of up to 0.5 voxels; new approaches to remove this error need to be developed. Conclusions: Analysis of the scan protocols used in the interlaboratory study, as well as a complementary parametric sensitivity study, showed that the DVC error was strongly influenced by the XCT equipment, but could be mitigated by adjusting the total scan duration.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

On numerical errors to the fields surrounding a relativistically moving particle in PIC codes

The particle-in-cell (PIC) method is widely used to model the self-consistent interaction between discrete particles and electromagnetic fields. It has been successfully applied to problems across plasma physics including plasma based acceleration, inertial confinement fusion, magnetically confined fusion, space physics, astrophysics, high energy density plasmas. In many cases the physics involves how relativistic particles (those with high relativistic γ factors) are generated and interact with plasmas. However, when relativistic particles stream across the grid, both in “vacuum” and in plasma, many numerical issues may arise which can lead to unphysical results. We present a detailed analysis of how discretized Maxwell solvers used in PIC codes can lead to numerical errors to the fields that surround particles that move at relativistic speeds across the grid. Expressions for the axial electric field as integrals in k space are presented that reveal two types of errors. The first arises from errors to the numerator of the integrand and leads to unphysical fields that are antisymmetric about the particle. Furthermore, the second arises from errors to the denominator of the integrand and lead to Cherenkov like radiation in “vacuum”. These fields are not anti-symmetric, extend behind the particle, and cause the particle to accelerate or decelerate depending on the solver and parameters. The unphysical fields are studied in detail for two representative solvers - the Yee solver and the FFT based solver. Although the Cherenkov fields are absent, the space charge fields are still present in the fundamental Brillouin zone for the FFT based solvers. In addition, the Cherenkov fields are present in higher order zones for the FFT based solvers. Comparison between the analytical solutions and PIC simulation results are presented. A solution for eliminating these unphysical fields by modifying the k operator in the axial direction is also presented. Using a customized finite difference solver, this solution was successfully implemented into OSIRIS [1]. Results from the customized solver are also presented. Additionally, this solution will be useful for a beam of particles that all move in one direction with a small angular divergence.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Nuclear Reaction Models Responsible for Simulation of Neutron-induced Soft Errors in Microelectronics

Terrestrial neutron-induced soft errors in MOSFETs from a 65 nm down to a 25 nm design rule are analyzed by means of multi-scale Monte Carlo simulation using the PHITS-HyENEXSS code system. Nuclear reaction models implemented in PHITS code are validated by comparisons with experimental data. From the analysis of calculated soft error rates, it is clarified that secondary He and H ions provide a major impact on soft errors with decreasing critical charge. It is also found that the high energy component from 10 MeV up to several hundreds of MeV in secondary cosmic-ray neutrons has the most significant source of soft errors regardless of design rule.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Disentangling error structures of precipitation datasets using decision trees

Characterizing error structures in precipitation products not only facilitates their proper applications for scientific and practical purposes but also helps improve their retrieval algorithms and processing methods. Despite the fact that multiple precipitation products have been assessed in the literature, factors that affect their error structures remain inadequately addressed. By interpreting 60 binary decision trees, this study disentangles the error characteristics of precipitation products in terms of their spatiotemporal patterns and geographical factors. Three independent precipitation products - two satellite-based and one reanalysis datasets: the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement) late run (IMERG-L), Soil Moisture to Rain-Advanced SCATterometer (SM2RAIN-ASCAT), and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 uncorrected precipitation output (MERRA2-UC), are evaluated across the contiguous United States from 2010 to 2019. Here, the ground-based Stage IV precipitation dataset is used as the ground truth. Results indicate that the MERRA2-UC outperforms the IMERG-L and SM2RAIN-ASCAT with higher accuracy and more stable interannual patterns for the analysis period. Decision trees cross-assess three spatiotemporal factors and find that the underestimation of MERRA2-UC occurs in the east of the Rocky Mountains, and SM2RAIN-ASCAT underestimates precipitation over high latitudes, especially in winter. Additionally, the decision tree method ascribes system errors to nine different geographical characteristics, of which the distance to the coast, soil type, and DEM are the three dominant features. On the other hand, the land cover type, topography position index, and aspect are three relatively weak factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Untangling Sources of Error in the Density-Functional Many-Body Expansion

The many-body expansion provides a framework for data-driven applications of electronic structure theory, including parametrization of classical force fields and machine learning. In this article, we demonstrate that its use significantly amplifies quadrature grid errors when modern density-functional approximations are employed. Standard grids that work well in conventional density-functional calculations result in runaway error accumulation when used with the many-body expansion. At the same time, delocalization error is also exacerbated, leading to exaggerated estimates of nonadditive n-body interactions. This is illustrated for anion–water clusters using the SCAN, r2SCAN, ωB97X-V and ωB97M-V functionals. By employing dense quadrature grids, the inherent self-interaction error is exposed, which can then be mitigated using a variety of other strategies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2018

Delocalization Errors in Density Functional Theory Are Essentially Quadratic in Fractional Occupation Number

Approximate functionals used in practical density functional theory (DFT) deviate from the piecewise linear behavior of the exact functional for fractional charges. This deviation causes excess charge delocalization, which leads to incorrect densities, molecular properties, barrier heights, band gaps, and excitation energies. Here, we present a simple delocalization function for characterizing this error and find it to be almost perfectly linear vs the fractional electron number for systems spanning in size from the H atom to the C 12 H 14 polyene. This causes the delocalization energy error to be a quadratic polynomial in the fractional electron number, which permits us to assess the comparative performance of 47 popular and recent functionals through the curvature. The quadratic form further suggests that information about a single fractional charge is sufficient to eliminate the principal source of delocalization error. Generalizing traditional two-point information like ionization potentials or electron affinities to account for a third, fractional charge-based data point could therefore permit fitting/tuning of functionals with lower delocalization error.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

In Situ Ion Counting for Improved Implanted Ion Error Rate and Silicon Vacancy Yield Uncertainty

An in situ counted ion implantation experiment improving the error on the number of ions required to form a single optically active silicon vacancy (SiV) defect in diamond 7-fold compared to timed implantation is presented. Here, traditional timed implantation relies on a beam current measurement followed by implantation with a preset pulse duration. It is dominated by Poisson statistics, resulting in large errors for low ion numbers. Instead, our in situ detection, measuring the ion number arriving at the substrate, results in a 2-fold improvement of the error on the ion number required to generate a single SiV compared to timed implantation. Through postimplantation analysis, the error is improved 7-fold compared to timed implantation. SiVs are detected by photoluminescence spectroscopy, and the yield of 2.98% is calculated through the photoluminescence count rate. Hanbury–Brown–Twiss interferometry is performed on locations potentially hosting single-photon emitters, confirming that 82% of the locations exhibit single photon emission statistics.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗