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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Assessing Clouds Using Satellite Observations Through Three Generations of Global Atmosphere Models
Abstract Clouds are parameterized in climate models using quantities on the model grid‐scale to approximate the cloud cover and impact on radiation. Because of the complexity of processes involved with clouds, these parameterizations are one of the key challenges in climate modeling. Differences in parameterizations of clouds are among the main contributors to the spread in climate sensitivity across models. In this work, the clouds in three generations of an atmosphere model lineage are evaluated against satellite observations. Satellite simulators are used within the model to provide an appropriate comparison with individual satellite products. In some respects, especially the top‐of‐atmosphere cloud radiative effect, the models show generational improvements. The most recent generation, represented by two distinct branches of development, exhibits some regional regressions in the cloud representation; in particular the southern ocean shows a positive bias in cloud cover. The two branches of model development show how choices during model development, both structural and parametric, lead to different cloud climatologies. Several evaluation strategies are used to quantify the spatial errors in terms of the large‐scale circulation and the cloud structure. The Earth mover's distance is proposed as a useful error metric for the passive satellite data products that provide cloud‐top pressure‐optical depth histograms. The cloud errors identified here may contribute to the high climate sensitivity in the Community Earth System Model, version 2 and in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, version 1.
Quantifying CanESM5 and EAMv1 sensitivities to Mt. Pinatubo volcanic forcing for the CMIP6 historical experiment
Large volcanic eruptions reaching the stratosphere have caused marked perturbations to the global climate including cooling at the Earth's surface, changes in large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns and marked temporary reductions in global ocean heat content. Many studies have investigated these effects using climate models; however, uncertainties remain in the modelled response to these eruptions. This is due in part to the diversity of forcing datasets that are used to prescribe the distribution of stratospheric aerosols resulting from these volcanic eruptions, as well as uncertainties in optical property derivations from these datasets. To improve this situation for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), a two-step process was undertaken. First, a combined stratospheric aerosol dataset, the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC; 1979–2016), was constructed. Next, GloSSAC, along with information from ice cores and Sun photometers, was used to generate aerosol distributions, characteristics and optical properties to construct a more consistent stratospheric aerosol forcing dataset for models participating in CMIP6. This “version 3” of the stratospheric aerosol forcing has been endorsed for use in all contributing CMIP6 simulations. Recent updates to the underlying GloSSAC from version 1 to version 1.1 affected the 1991–1994 period and necessitated an update to the stratospheric aerosol forcing from version 3 to version 4. As version 3 remains the official CMIP6 input, quantification of the impact on radiative forcing and climate is both relevant and timely for interpreting results from experiments such as the CMIP6 historical simulations. This study uses two models, the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1), to estimate the difference in instantaneous radiative forcing in simulated post-Pinatubo climate response when using version 4 instead of version 3. Differences in temperature, precipitation and radiative forcings are generally found to be small compared to internal variability. An exception to this is differences in monthly temperature anomalies near 24 km altitude in the tropics, which can be as large as 3 °C following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo.
Multiscale Optimization of Integrated Energy Systems Using Machine Learning Models for Market Interactions
The presentation was delivered at the 2022 American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE) annual meeting.
Dynamic Optimal Dispatch of Energy Systems with Intermittent Renewables and Damage Model
With the increasing penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources into the grid, there is a growing need for process systems-based strategies that integrate dispatchable and variable energy systems for supplying the demand while maintaining grid reliability. The proposed framework corresponds to a dynamic mixed-integer linear programming optimization approach that integrates coal-fired and natural gas-fired power plants, NaS batteries for energy storage, and solar/wind energy to supply the demand. This optimization approach considers an economic goal and constraints to provide power balance while maintaining the overall damage of the natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plant drum under a maximum stress as well as avoiding the overheating of the NGCC superheater and reheater. Renewable curtailment levels are also retained at minimum levels. Case studies are analyzed considering different loads and renewable penetration levels. The results show that the demand was met for all cases. Grid flexibility was mostly provided by the NGCC, while the batteries were used sparingly. In addition, considering a CO 2 equivalent analysis, the environmental performance was intrinsically connected to grid flexibility and the level of renewable penetration. Stress analysis results reinforced the necessity for an equipment health-related constraint.
Coupling Subsurface and Above-Surface Models for Optimizing the Design of Borefields and District Heating and Cooling Systems
Accurate dynamic energy simulation is important for the design and sizing of district heating and cooling systems with geothermal heat exchange for seasonal energy storage. Current modeling approaches in building and district energy simulation tools typically consider heat conduction through the ground between boreholes without flowing groundwater. While detailed simulation tools for subsurface heat and mass transfer exist, these fall short in simulating above-surface energy systems. To support the design and operation of such systems, the study developed a coupled model including a software package for building and district energy simulation, and software for detailed heat and mass transfer in the subsurface. For the first, it uses the open-source Modelica Buildings Library, which includes dynamic simulation models for building and district energy and control systems. For the heat and mass transfer in the soil, it uses the TOUGH simulator. The TOUGH family of codes can model heat and multi-phase, multi-component mass transport for a variety of fluid systems, as well as chemical reactions, in fractured porous media. The study validated the coupled modeling approach by comparing the simulation results with one from the g-function based ground response model. It then looked into effects when the water table and the regional groundwater flow are considered in the ground, from the perspective of heat exchange between borehole and ground, and the electrical consumption of the district heating and cooling systems. To access the simulation models, please find the links in the submission: -- For coupled approach validation: see model Buildings.Fluid.Geothermal.Borefields.Examples.BorefieldsWithTough and Buildings.Examples.DistrictReservoirNetworks.Examples.Reservoir3Variable_TOUGH from the "Modelica Building Library" resource, branch issue1495_tough_interface, commit a2667c0. -- For the study of the effect of water table: see model Buildings.Examples.DistrictReservoirNetworks.Examples.Reservoir3Variable_TOUGH from he "Modelica Building Library" resource, branch issue1495_tough_interface_moreIO, commit 760de49. -- For the study of the effect of regional groundwater flow: see Buildings.Examples.DistrictReservoirNetworks.Examples.Reservoir3Variable_TOUGH from he "Modelica Building Library" resource, branch issue1495_tough_interface_moreIO_3D, commit c2a2d2a. The coupling interface script "GrounResponse.py" can be found from the above links in the folder Buildings/Resources/Python-Sources. Also, the needed files for TOUGH simulation are in the folder Buildings/Resources/Python-Sources/ToughFiles that can be accessed through the above links. A brief description of these files is given below; detailed specifications for the first three files may be found in the TOUGH3 Users Guide (Jung et al., 2018) https://tough.lbl.gov/documentation/tough-manuals/. (1) INCON - initial conditions for each grid block (2) INFILE - main input file with material properties and control parameters (3) MESH - description of the computational grid (4) readsave - Modelica/TOUGH interface program: read the final output of TOUGH simulation after TOUGH time step and prepare for transfer to Modelica for next Modelica time step (5) readsave.inp - input parameters for program readsave (6) writeincon - Modelica/TOUGH interface program: write the output of Modelica after Modelica time step and prepare for transfer to TOUGH as initial conditions for the next TOUGH step (7) writeincon.inp - input parameters for program writeincon
Reducing uncertainty of polar to midlatitude linkages using DOE’s E3SM in a coordinated model-experiment setting
This project brought DOE’s climate modeling effort with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model into the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), which is part of the sixth and latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6. PAMIP examines the causes and consequences of polar amplification, when external forcing results in a larger temperature increase in high latitudes than the global average, in a coordinated set of model experiments with a common modeling protocol. Our teams from UC Irvine and the University of Toronto have designed, carried out, analyzed, and disseminated PAMIP output from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). PAMIP’s ongoing stream of significant new results have advanced progress in the community’s understanding and led to new outstanding research questions that have motivated further work. PAMIP has led to improved consensus on the atmospheric response to sea ice loss. The important finding is that for a similar sea ice anomaly forcing, the simulated atmospheric response in the troposphere is remarkably consistent among the 16 models’ runs analyzed. The zonal-mean tropospheric response consists of a very robust equatorward shift of the westerly flow in mid-latitudes. However, while the multi-model mean response is robust, it has a weak amplitude relative to internal variability. We identified a weakness in the models (including E3SM) in terms of their response to sea-ice forcing that is related to eddy forcing (or nonlinear dynamical effects) at mid- to high latitudes. In fact, E3SM is an outlier in terms of the models participating, and in that sense, it turned out to be a vital participant model. We found that reductions in energy transport due sea-ice loss and involving dry air only are compensated by increases in moist energy transport from warmer sea surface temperature in midlatitudes. This leads to a large spread in energy transport into the Arctic and is a potential source of spread in Arctic amplification. We identified an important role that climate modes, including tropical modes of variability (El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO)) play in the response to sea-ice anomalies, including in ocean coupled experiments. Similarly, we identified and quantified the contribution of sea-ice thickness to the atmospheric response compared to the response to sea-ice extent only. We found that it is important to run large ensembles and even with an ensemble size of 100 simulations the response is largely influenced by internal variability. We demonstrated convincingly that Ural blocking, not sea-ice loss, provides the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex in fall/early winter and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation that can last for up to two months. However, sea-ice anomalies can influence the background flow so that the response to Ural blocking is more persistent under low sea-ice conditions in the Barents/Kara Sea than high sea ice Atmospheric model hierarchies that progressively add individual processes have a long history in providing dynamical insight for modeling the atmosphere. Similarly, coupled model hierarchies that progressively add individual ocean processes can provide insights into the workings of the coupled climate system, however such hierarchies have not been available except for a non-dynamical slab ocean model. Because of the missing processes, surface flux corrections must be added to produce a target climate. In this project, we managed to overcome this problem and develop a globally coupled ocean model hierarchy in CESM that can turn on and off the processes of mixed-layer entrainment and Ekman flow. We used the hierarchy to study the impact of Arctic sea-ice loss on the climate system. We find that the effect of mixed-layer entrainment on ocean heat uptake influences the atmospheric circulation by shifting the latitudinal positions of the mid-latitude westerly jet and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In quadrupled CO 2 experiments, we studied how air-sea coupling affects the response of tropical rainfall under global warming. In order to identify the importance of individual ocean processes, we used the hierarchy of ocean models to separate the effects of seasonal mixed-layer entrainment, wind-driven Ekman flows, and frictional flows. We showed that including Ekman and frictional flows allows our simulation to produce the Pacific Ocean's enhanced equatorial warming pattern and equatorward ITCZ contraction noted in previous climate simulations. We also showed that the frictional flow, which has yet to receive much attention, is as important as the Ekman flow in generating equatorial heat convergence.
A Distributed Trust Model Simulator for Energy Grid of Things Distributed Energy Resource Management System
The evolution of networks into more distributed, self-reliant nodes has mitigated single-point failures that plagued traditional centralized networks. Applied to power grids, distributed systems can increase the integrity and availability of grid services while also offering a power management solution. However, while distributed networks provide scalability, security, and sustainability compared to centralized networks, their distributed nature makes them harder for anomaly detection and prevention. Incorporating a Distributed Trust Model (DTM) System into an Energy Grid of Things Distributed Energy Resource Management System (EGOT DERMS) allows grid participants to be characterized and their communication to be analyzed for possible attacks. A Trust Model simulator is needed to evaluate and improve the DTM System.Trustworthiness is calculated using a Trust Model. While many trust models exist, most only consider 2-3 matrices to evaluate trust. The TM proposed in this thesis uses a Metric Vector of Trust (MVoT) monitoring 17 parameters when assessing trust. Moreover, unlike standard trust models, the proposed trust model establishes a method to test the trust between various actors within the network and probe the trust model itself. Using a Trust Model Simulator, MVoT calaculations, initial values, and parameters are fine-tuned to achieve high-confidence message classifications and minimize false positives. The DTM System and Trust Mode Simulation Suite allow for distributed trust evaluation with a real-time classification of EGOT DERMS actors, providing additional security for distributed systems.
Knowledge Graph for End-to-End Traceability of an Integrated Human-Earth System Model
Integrated human-Earth system models inform energy-water-land system dynamics and policies, yet their results are difficult to trace through input-data, model structure, scenario configurations, and solved outputs. Because this information is siloed across disconnected artifacts, process-based IAMs have historically lacked a unified, queryable representation. Such lack of traceability prevents researchers from systematically isolating the multi-sector drivers of complex outcomes (such as tracing water-scarcity results back to distant energy-system dynamics) or conducting holistic uncertainty attribution across hundreds of interacting parameters. To address this concern, our work documents the software engineering process of a knowledge graph that unifies these four layers for the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA_Reference scenario, GCAM v9.1). The graph was built as a relational property graph in DuckDB from the run’s own artifacts: the input-preparation dependency map (gcamdata chunk map), the model’s XML input files, the run configuration, and the results database (BaseX), successfully mapping the model’s declared structure. The resulting graph comprises 204,321 nodes and 1,687,814 edges across 16 node types and 15 edge types, with approximately 16.3 million time-series values stored separately to maintain structural efficiency. To ensure representation fidelity, every edge carries an epistemic-status annotation recording the warrant for the relationship (structural, provenance, dependency, or model-derived), and a machine-readable provenance ledger classifying the origin of every schema element. Evaluation against a fixed five-benchmark suite with locked baselines reports zero structural orphans, zero dangling edge endpoints, and 100% of output-producing technologies traceable to raw input files. Two interactive interfaces present the graph, including a serverless browser application built on DuckDB-Wasm. By establishing the first end-to-end provenance framework for an IAM, this work enables researchers and scientists to systematically audit complex policy scenarios, debug model structures, and trace policy-relevant outputs to their data origins in real time.
A database of hourly wind speed and modeled generation for US wind plants based on three meteorological models
Abstract In 2022, wind generation accounted for ~10% of total electricity generation in the United States. As wind energy accounts for a greater portion of total energy, understanding geographic and temporal variation in wind generation is key to many planning, operational, and research questions. However, in-situ observations of wind speed are expensive to make and rarely shared publicly. Meteorological models are commonly used to estimate wind speeds, but vary in quality and are often challenging to access and interpret. The Plant-Level US multi-model WIND and generation (PLUSWIND) data repository helps to address these challenges. PLUSWIND provides wind speeds and estimated generation on an hourly basis at almost all wind plants across the contiguous United States from 2018–2021. The repository contains wind speeds and generation based on three different meteorological models: ERA5, MERRA2, and HRRR. Data are publicly accessible in simple csv files. Modeled generation is compared to regional and plant records, which highlights model biases and errors and how they differ by model, across regions, and across time frames.
Impact of model predictive control-enabled home energy management on large-scale distribution systems with photovoltaics
Residential customers use more than one-quarter of the electricity in the world. Optimally managing home energy consumption is an effective way of easing the operational challenges facing the electric grid with increasing solar photovoltaics (PV). This paper studies the impact of the future proliferation of home energy management systems (HEMS) in the presence of PV on large-scale distribution systems. First, we present a stochastic HEMS model that minimizes residential customers' thermal discomfort and energy costs under uncertainty. The HEMS model schedules the optimal operations of residential appliances in the presence of PV within a mixed-integer linear programming-based model predictive control framework that links the proposed HEMS to a quasi-steady-state time-series simulation tool. Additionally, extensive simulations are conducted for a stand-alone residential home using two tariff structures and for 1977 homes on an 8,500-node distribution feeder. Simulation results quantify the impact of the future proliferation of HEMS on the large-scale distribution system with PV.
Multiphysics Modeling of Hydrokinetic Turbine Energy Conversion System
Hydrokinetic turbines (HKTs) hold great promise as a renewable energy source, but high maintenance costs and limited energy output hinder their widespread adoption. The lack of comprehensive research on HKT drivetrain designs creates a knowledge gap in enhancing generation efficiency and cost reduction. A model of the HKT system with a focus on electric drivetrains and power converters is required to address this knowledge gap. This paper first introduces a MATLAB-averaged model integrating electrical-mechanical-thermal domains and aging behaviors within multi-time frames. Then a PLECS model, which incorporates maximum power point tracking and dq reference framed control for AC-DC-AC power converters, is enriched by a dynamic thermal model to predict fast transients accurately. These models optimize the design at the component level, resulting in improved integrated system performance. Furthermore, the validation of the models is carried out through hardware experiments for the averaged model and hardware-in-the-loop testing for the dynamic model.
Application of thermal energy storage with electrified heating and cooling in a cold climate
Ground source heat pumps (GSHPs) have been shown to be an effective means of decarbonizing building heating and cooling, but the operation of these systems at scale presents challenges to sites and the grid due to increases in peak demand. Here, in this study, we investigate how the use of Thermal Energy Storage (TES), in the form of stratified water storage, could reduce the peak daily demand associated with GSHP systems and thus improve their cost effectiveness. This system was compared to a Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plant, to investigate the potential cost and emissions impacts of electrification on large energy users transitioning from high efficiency fossil fuel equipment. This study builds on previous research by using a significant campus area, and investigating the various impacts of an electrified system versus a state of the art fossil fuel system. An established method of TRNSYS modeling is used for the heat pumps and borehole heat exchangers (BHEs), along with the TES. The GSHP system with TES is modeled to follow industry standards and sized to provide an optimal balance of capital and operating costs. Costs were investigated for a unique large energy user rate structure, as well as for a more common generalized rate structure. The results show that the addition of TES to the GSHP system could reduce operating costs by 4.5%, but still incurs a 5.64% cost increase from the baseline CHP system. It is also shown, however, that a tactical integration of heat pumps into the CHP system is the most cost effective solution, only increasing the operating costs by 4.71%. Likewise, the impacts of different rate structures are highlighted, with the TES only resulting in 0.75% cost savings under the generalized utility rate. Furthermore, it is shown that thermal storage has great potential for demand reduction, with the addition of storage incurring a decrease of 7–22% in annual peak demand kW, dependent on the rate structure.
GCAM-USA v5.3_water_dispatch: integrated modeling of subnational US energy, water, and land systems within a global framework
Abstract. This paper describes GCAM-USA v5.3_water_dispatch, an open-source model that represents key interactions across economic, energy, water, and land systems in a consistent global framework with subnational detail in the United States. GCAM-USA divides the world into 31 geopolitical regions outside the United States (US) and represents the US economy and energy systems in 51 state-level regions (50 states plus the District of Columbia). The model also includes 235 water basins and 384 land use regions, and 23 of each fall at least partially within the United States. GCAM-USA offers a level of process and temporal resolution rare for models of its class and scope, including detailed subnational representation of US water demands and supplies and sub-annual operations (day and night for each month) in the US electric power sector. GCAM-USA can be used to explore how changes in socioeconomic drivers, technological progress, or policy impact demands for (and production of) energy, water, and crops at a subnational level in the United States while maintaining consistency with broader national and international conditions. This paper describes GCAM-USA's structure, inputs, and outputs, with emphasis on new model features. Four illustrative scenarios encompassing varying socioeconomic and energy system futures are used to explore subnational changes in energy, water, and land use outcomes. We conclude with information about how public users can access the model.
Long-Term Electricity Projections for Kentucky [Slides]
This presentation documents long-term electricity sector projections for Kentucky using the Regional Energy Deployment System model.
Data-driven Quasi-static Surrogate Model for Nuclear-powered Integrated Energy Systems
The integration of nuclear power into energy systems presents a promising avenue to address the growing global energy demands while minimizing greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, we introduce a data-driven quasi-static surrogate model for nuclear-powered Integrated Energy Systems (IES) that comprises various components, including a small modular reactor (SMR), energy manifold (EM), balance of plant (BOP), high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE), and district heating (DH) system. Traditional physics-based models for these components often entail significant computational overhead and time consumption, necessitating the development of efficient surrogate models. The development of a complete surrogate model for the IES involves the creation of individual surrogate models for each component, leveraging machine learning techniques and simulated data. These isolated surrogate models are subsequently integrated, enabling a holistic view of the IES and reducing the computational burden associated with detailed physics-based simulations. This paper outlines the development process, validation, and the performance evaluation of the surrogate models. The findings shed light on the accuracy and applicability of the surrogate models in practical scenarios, demonstrating their potential to expedite the analysis of nuclear-powered IES and inform future research and development efforts.
DER Planning with Resilience Analysis Using REopt Lite: A Behind-the-Meter Techno-Economic Analysis Tool
REopt Lite is a techno-economic decision support model for behind-the-meter energy systems design and dispatch modeling. REopt Lite is used to optimize energy systems for buildings, campuses, communities, and microgrids. It is based on a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) optimization model. It is a fully automated and streamlined energy modeling tool that can be used off-the-shelf for a wide variety of distributed generation integration analyses and at the same time is architected to be extensible for user-specific customizations for advanced users and subject matter experts. It is publicly available as a webtool as well as has an Application Programming Interface (API). The API functionality enables programmatic access to the model facilitating smooth integration with other distribution systems modeling tools, and automated multiple scenarios/sensitivity studies.
Data for Bistline, et al. (2025) "Policy Implications of Net-Zero Emissions: A Multi-Model Analysis of United States Emissions and Energy System Impacts"
These files contain input assumptions, results, and figures associated with the Bistline, et al. (2025) article "Policy Implications of Net-Zero Emissions: A Multi-Model Analysis of United States Emissions and Energy System Impacts" in Energy and Climate Change as part of the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study. Please refer to the original paper for details.