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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Learning from learning machines: improving the predictive power of energy-water-land nexus models with insights from complex measured and simulated data

Focal Area(s): Insights gleaned from complex data (observed and simulated) using AI; Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components, including physics- and knowledge-informed models; Energy-water-land nexus and integrated energy systems – models of MultiSector dynamics. Science Challenge: Scientific communities are in need of tools for the computational integration of physics-based models, experimental data, and empirical/observational studies across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales to explore and meet EESSD grand challenges. We require AI algorithms for the discovery of process-drivers in the Earth-energy-human system and to link them with complex measured and simulated data. We aim to understand the energy-water-land nexus, particularly under extreme forcing scenarios and rare events, leveraging scale-aware AI process models, including probabilistic uncertainties, and benefiting from the emerging 5G-enabled landscape-scale sensing and edge computing capabilities. These models are needed to identify instabilities and tipping points that manifest extreme system behaviors with consequences for integrated energy systems and the environment. This work requires fundamental advances in uncertainty quantification, in particular, to identify and model unlikely but catastrophic outliers. Specifically, we need models that are interpretable to domain scientists and, essentially, explainable to public and private stake holders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Contributions of vegetation heterogeneity within tower footprint to CO 2 flux estimations through graph neural network modeling

Net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (Fc) measured directly by eddy covariance towers is based on various assumptions, including large, flat and homogenous land cover type. In reality, often a tower site is not large enough for flux measurements, and landscapes consist of patches of different land cover types within the flux footprint. In addition, some portions of fluxes are contributed by different cover types when a footprint exceeds the size of the target ecosystem. The contributions of non-dominant patches to Fc are often ignored. Here, in this study, we propose a novel integrated modeling framework that combines random forest (RF) and XGBoost with a residual correction module based on a deep graph convolutional network (DeeperGCN) to simulate Fc for seven flux measurement sites in southwest Michigan. High-resolution remote sensing vegetation indices, soil properties, meteorological variables, and footprint-weighted spatial features were used as model inputs at three spatial resolutions (10 m, 20 m, 30 m), and their importance in predicting Fc with DeeperGCN was assessed. We found that residual correction using DeeperGCN significantly improved prediction accuracy, with the R 2 increasing from 0.9098 to 0.9479 for RF and from 0.9235 to 0.9433 for XGBoost. At site level, the maximum improvement in R 2 reached 0.1617. Paired t-tests confirmed that these improvements were statistically significant (p < 0.05). Among all predictors, leaf area index and incoming shortwave radiation emerged as the dominant drivers of spatial residual variation, followed by precipitation, relative humidity, and selected vegetation indices. The 20 m resolution yielded the best balance between model performance and computational efficiency. In conclusion, our modeling framework effectively captures both spatial heterogeneity and nonlinear interactions, offering a robust solution for spatially explicit flux modeling in structurally diverse ecosystems beyond the study sites.

footprint model↗
DOE OSTI2021

A 3D Full Stress Tensor Model for Oklahoma

Abstract The stress tensor is an important property for upper crustal studies such as those that involve pore fluids and earthquake hazards. At tectonic plate scale, plate boundary forces and mantle convection are the primary drivers of the stress field. In many local settings (10–100 s of km and <10 km depth) in tectonic plate interiors, we can simplify by assuming a constant background stress field that is perturbed by local heterogeneity in density and elasticity. Local stress orientation and sometimes magnitude can be estimated from earthquake and borehole‐based observations when available. Modeling of the local stress field often involves interpolating sparse observations. We present a new method to estimate the 3D stress field in the upper crust and demonstrate it for Oklahoma. We created a 3D material model by inverting multiple types of geophysical observations simultaneously. Integrating surface‐wave dispersion, local travel times and gravity observations produces a model of P‐wave velocity, S‐wave velocity, and density. The stress field can then be modeled using finite element simulations. The simulations are performed using our simplified view of the local stress field as the sum of a constant background stress field that is perturbed by local density and elasticity heterogeneity and gravitational body forces. An orientation of N82°E, for the maximum compressive tectonic force, best agrees with previously observed stress orientations and faulting types in Oklahoma. The gravitational contribution of the horizontal stress field has a magnitude comparable to the tectonic contribution for the upper 5 km of the subsurface.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Control Oriented Model of Cabin-HVAC System in a Long-Haul Trucks for Energy Management Applications

Super Truck II is a 48V mild hybrid class 8 truck with an all auxiliary loads powered purely by the battery pack. Electric Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) load is the most prominent battery load during the hotel period, when the truck driver is resting inside the sleeper. For the PACCAR Super Truck II (ST-II) project a 48 V battery system provides the required power during the hotel period. A cabin-HVAC model estimates the electric load on the 48V battery system, allowing the control system to implement an efficient energy management strategy that avoids engine idling during the hotel period. The thermal model accounts for the sun load due to the time of day and the geographic location of the truck during the hotel period. The cabin-HVAC model has two parts. First, a grey box model with two heat exchangers (Condenser and Evaporator) working in unison with refrigerant mass flow rate as an input and HVAC load as an output. Second, a two-node cabin model formulated to estimate the cabin temperature as a function of the Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI), HVAC load and ambient temperature. The models are calibrated using experimental cabin-HVAC system data as for long-haul class 8 truck (e.g. ST-II). Here, the model simulations show that the overall Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) value of 0.4°C between the experimental and simulated cabin temperature.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

CERESMIP: a climate modeling protocol to investigate recent trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave top-of-atmosphere radiation components. Available climate model simulations suggest that these trends are incompatible with purely internal variability, but that the full magnitude and breakdown of the trends are outside of the model ranges. Unfortunately, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) protocol only uses observed forcings to 2014 (and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) projections thereafter), and furthermore, many of the ‘observed' drivers have been updated substantially since the CMIP6 inputs were defined. Most notably, the sea surface temperature (SST) estimates have been revised and now show up to 50% greater trends since 1979, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, estimates of short-lived aerosol and gas-phase emissions have been substantially updated. These revisions will likely have material impacts on the model-simulated EEI. We therefore propose a new, relatively low-cost, model intercomparison, CERESMIP, that would target the CERES period (2000-present), with updated forcings to at least the end of 2021. The focus will be on atmosphere-only simulations, using updated SST, forcings and emissions from 1990 to 2021. The key metrics of interest will be the EEI and atmospheric feedbacks, and so the analysis will benefit from output from satellite cloud observation simulators. The Tier 1 request would consist only of an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations, while the Tier 2 request would encompass uncertainties in the applied forcing, atmospheric composition, single and all-but-one forcing responses. We present some preliminary results and invite participation from a wide group of models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Variable-Impedance Magnetically-Insulated Transmission Lines as a Risk-Mitigation Measure for Next-Generation Pulsed Power

This project has produced the first detailed characterizations of power flow resulting from applying the “variable-impedance MITL” concept to real-life systems in Sandia’s pulsed power program (Z and next-generation pulsed power (NGPP)). We present simulation results and analyses for constant-impedance versions of both Z and NGPP and survey the operational viability of several variable-impedance re-designs in the parameter space of linear tapers. Circuit modeling (SCREAMER/Bertha) was used to pinpoint promising candidate designs, and EM-PIC (Empire) simulations were used to evaluate these candidates more rigorously. This approach was particularly successful in the Z regime which resulted in the identification of several viable variable-impedance MITL designs for each level. The approach was more challenged in the operating space NGPP occupies, producing data points that speak to a more restrictive design space due to anode plasma turn-on. In the end, we were able to converge on one viable variable-impedance design for the highest inductance line (level “F”) and one for the highest current line (level “A”). Altogether, the body of simulation evidence presented in this report suggest there does exist flexibility in operating space for magnetically-insulated transmission lines (MITLs) having variable geometric impedance to be a potential enabling technology for safely increasing current delivery (and potentially lowering stack voltage) in pulsed-power drivers by manipulating electron losses; however, operating points for a particular design must be carefully screened. Circuit and EM-PIC modeling provided consistent verdicts in safe operating regimes for operational viability, but additional physics such as anode plasma turn-on which is included in Empire but not in SCREAMER/Bertha was found to be a critical factor affecting power flow that lead to different assessments between the codes. It is not always the case that the occurrence of anode plasma caused a design to fail (some designs turned on anode plasma yet still delivered load currents meeting design targets); the details matter such as how early in the pulse anode surfaces break down (and how large a region). However, in every case that it did fail it was found that the feedback from anode plasma was the cause (i.e., turning off the anode plasma model in Empire restored agreement with the circuit model prediction). As circuit simulations represent an efficient and practical means of surveying design space compared to more computationally-expensive approaches such as EM-PIC, it could be prudent to invest in the research and development of models to include the effects of anode plasma such as ion emission in circuit codes. The variable-impedance MITL design is a new concept that enables controlled manipulation of the initial electron losses in the outer MITL and can be tested on Z today. We encourage follow-on work to explore further optimization (including alternative variable-impedance profiles, e.g., having constant dZ/dR), and to confirm the major findings presented in this report by fielding test hardware on actual Z shots.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Marine Algae Industrialization Consortium (MAGIC): Combining biofuel and high-value bioproducts to meet the RFS

The Marine Algae Industrialization Consortium (MAGIC) was formed to address pressing challenges in the commercialization of microalgae as a source of biofuel. The “Marine Algae Industrialization Consortium (MAGIC): Combining biofuel and high-value bioproducts to meet the RFS” project formally addressed two US Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) goals: (1) Model the sustainable supply of 1 million metric tonnes ash free dry weight (AFDW) cultivated algal biomass and (2) Demonstrate valuable co-products produced along with biofuel intermediates to increase value of algal biomass by 30%. To achieve these goals, the project demonstrated and validated high-value co-products to drive down the cost of biofuel by increasing the value of algae “co-products” towards increasing the selling price of total algae biomass as one of the key drivers of economics and adoption. This was accomplished through five core, interdependent tasks including: (1) strain selection to identify and deliver strains for mass culture, (2) mass culture using a hybrid cultivation system and following key operating parameters for downstream applications to provide algae feedstock, (3) recovery and conversion to evaluate two alternative methods to separate dry algae biomass into oil and residuals for downstream testing, (4) product assessment to determine biofuel, aquafeed or poultry feed product efficacy using algae biomass fractions as well as to provide critical performance data for valuation and (5) commercialization to use technoeconomic and life cycle assessments (TEA/LCA) as iterative design and assessment tools including consideration of target markets, competitors, and distribution channels to guide product assessment, development and valuation. A total of 46 peer-review publications, many open-access, provide detail of much of the work carried out and the results of the tasks. Additional reports and presentations provide other technical and public engagement material. At a high level, using a variety of approaches, more than 1000 marine microalgae strains were evaluated to ultimately identify the seven winners that were down-selected to be grown in mass culture. Strain selection demonstrated that there were no ‘super strains’ and that each candidate had strengths and limitations for specific products, growth conditions or operational considerations. Mass culture growth of these seven strains at >5000 L / 29 m 2 scale found that four them were suitable for product assessment. More than 250 kg of biomass was produced across hundreds of pond runs along with thousands of cultivation entries on the growth and biomass characteristics as well as environmental parameters. In the process, dozens of standard operating procedures were generated as was custom software to process and analyze cultivation data. Recovery and conversion of algae biomass demonstrated that a hexane solvent based extraction protocol was most effective at recovering oil (biocrude) from algae and four strains were processed to produce oil and lipid extracted algae (residuals) for downstream testing. Membrane-based oil separation was less successful, but may still be applicable to other commercial applications in the future. Product testing demonstrated that algae biocrude is of high quality and hydrotreating generated numerous fractions of high quality composition for fuel and lubricate based applications. Aquafeed studies performed at a variety of scales showed that both whole and defatted (lipid extracted algae) microalgae were suitable as a feed ingredient, but that the specifics of the fed animal and biochemical composition of the algae are critical factors when determining formulation. Similarly, poultry studies on whole and defatted microalgae generally showed positive outcomes on animal growth and health, with some microalgae providing enhanced nutritional composition of the animal product. Economic and life cycle assessments covered a wide range of possible commercialization and sustainability scenarios. Replacement value, improved product value added, consumer values marketing added valuation and improved animal health were considered as alternatives for microalgae valuation. Using the open pond system, algae productivity was identified as the key driver of commercialization economics, but combination of co-products (e.g. animal feed) with biofuel production substantially increased the total selling price of algae. Modeled microalgae selling price exceeded $\$$1500/tonne and could generate competitive biofuel selling prices below $\$$5 gallon gas equivalents using realistic algal productivities. Short (process scale) and longer (decadal trends) sustainability assessments show that marine microalgae can enhance the sustainability of energy production and lead to other realized benefits in water, fertilizer and land use for other sectors (e.g. agriculture). This project successfully demonstrated all of the components of an end-to-end process from mass microalgae cultivation and dewatering, to recovery and conversion of algae biomass components, to final product demonstration and process valuation; the combined results provide a framework for future commercialization of algae based biofuels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Downwind coning concept rotor for a 25 MW offshore wind turbine

The size of offshore wind turbines over the next decade is expected to continually increase due to reduced balance of station costs per MW and also the higher wind energy at increased altitudes that can lead to higher capacity factors. However, there are challenges that may limit the degree of upscaling which is possible. In this paper, a two-bladed downwind turbine system is upscaled from 13.2 MW to 25 MW, by redesigning aerodynamics, structures, and controls. In particular, three 25 MW rotors have been developed: V1 is the upscaled model, V2 is a partial redesigned model, and V3 is a fully redesigned model. Despite their radically large sizes, it is found that these 25 MW turbine rotors satisfy this limited set of design drivers at the rated condition and that larger blade lengths are possible with cone-wise load-alignment. In addition, flapwise morphing (varying the cone angle with a wind-speed schedule) is investigated in terms of minimizing mean and fluctuating root bending loads using steady inflow proxies for the maximum and damage equivalent load moments. The resulting series of 25 MW rotors, which are the largest ever designed, can be a useful baseline for additional development and assessment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Flash flourishing of Northern Hemisphere vegetation and its drivers

Rapid surges in vegetation growth—defined by thresholds in growth rate and duration—are critical yet understudied indicators of ecosystem responses to environmental change. Here, we investigate spatiotemporal patterns of such abrupt, short-lived flash flourishing events across the northern extratropical latitudes (NEL) from 2003 to 2022. We find more frequent occurrence of flash flourishing events at high latitudes (≥45° N), where their incidence is 1.6 times higher than at mid-latitudes. Moreover, there is an increasing tendency in frequency, duration, and intensity of flash flourishing events over the past two decades, alongside consistent rises in vegetation indices across onset, post-onset, and entire phases. Model simulations attribute these multiyear increases primarily to elevated atmospheric CO 2 , while temperature and radiation predominantly control phase-specific variability, with onset traits strongly predicting subsequent phenological responses. Together, these findings identify the patterns and drivers of NEL flash flourishing and highlight their large-scale impacts on ecosystem dynamics, offering critical insights for model improvement and the assessment of ecological shifts.

Kong, Xiangxu [Nanjing University of Information S↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of an open-source segmented blade design tool

As wind turbines continue to grow ever larger to reduce the cost of energy, their blades follow suit, with the largest commercial offshore blades extending past 100 m. Massive blades such as these raise key transportation and manufacturing challenges, especially for land-based turbines. Segmented blades are one solution and are garnering increased industry and research interest. In this work, a detailed mechanical joint model is integrated into the Wind-Plant Integrated System Design and Engineering Model (WISDEM ® ), which will facilitate future segmented blade research and optimization. WISDEM is used to design a wind turbine with 100-m segmented blades. This wind turbine design is compared to other machines with 100-m monolithic blades designed for rail-transportability. The designs are compared in terms of blade mass and cost, turbine capital cost, annual energy production, and levelized cost of energy, with monolithic designs being the lightest and most economical. However, this result may vary by wind plant location. A variety of segmentation joint types exist, and they will inevitably vary in parameters such as cost, spanwise location, and physical characteristics. This work examines the sensitivity of wind turbine design drivers and annual energy production to a variety of the aforementioned parameters, using the open-source wind turbine design codes OpenFAST and WISDEM, finding that joint mass, stiffness, and location can have significant effects on design drivers.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Factors influencing recent trends in retail electricity prices in the United States

This study analyzes the primary drivers of recent state-level trends in U.S. retail electricity prices. We summarize pricing trends, explore descriptive relationships, and employ regression models to quantify the influence of various factors. Although the recent national rise in retail prices has largely tracked inflation, state-level trends vary widely. We identify a number of factors that explain trends in subsets of states. States with the greatest price increases typically exhibited shrinking customer loads—partially linked to growth in net metered behind-the-meter solar—and had renewables portfolio standards (RPS) in concert with relatively costly incremental renewable energy supplies. By contrast, recent utility-scale wind and solar deployment that occurred outside RPS programs (but that benefited from tax incentives) had no discernible impact on increased retail prices. Hurricanes, storms and wildfires also contributed to sizable price increases in some states, most notably in California, where wildfire risk mitigation and liability insurance were major cost drivers. Fluctuations in natural gas prices—particularly following the onset of the Ukraine-Russia war—further contributed to sharp price increases through 2022–2023 in many states, with moderation in 2024. The relative influence of these factors varies across states and over time, and relationships may change in the future. Nonetheless, the findings underscore the diverse set of price determinants and highlight the need for continued research to inform effective policy and ensure customer affordability.

Customer load↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data for: Time to anoxia: Observations and predictions of oxygen drawdown following coastal flood events

This dataset contains data and code associated with the paper Patel et al. "Time to anoxia: Observations and predictions of oxygen drawdown following coastal flood events".The coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface (TAI) is a highly dynamic system characterized by strong physical, chemical, and biological gradients. In particular, shifting soil redox conditions and consumption of terminal electron acceptors, due in part to dynamic hydrologic conditions, is a strong driver of carbon availability and transformations across TAIs. However, while redox dynamics are well described, our ability to quantitatively forecast rates of oxic to anoxic shifts in soils with different characteristics and inundation regimes is limited. We integrated field measurements, laboratory incubations, and model simulations to improve mechanistic understanding of oxygen consumption dynamics in coastal soils. Continuous in situ monitoring unexpectedly revealed that flooding caused temporary spikes in subsurface dissolved oxygen followed by rapid consumption in the wetlands. To further investigate these mechanisms in a controlled setting, we performed laboratory incubations using surface and subsurface soils from a TAI gradient (defined here as upland forest to transitional forest to wetland) in Western Lake Erie to measure oxygen consumption rates in TAI soils during flood events. In our experiments, wetland soils reached anoxia the fastest, in ∼ 9 h on average, whereas upland soils turned anoxic in ∼ 18 h. Subsurface upland soils did not turn anoxic even after two weeks of saturation in the lab, and their oxygen consumption patterns suggested carbon and/or nutrient limitation. These results are consistent with in-situ groundwater redox and oxygen measurements in the field, where wetland soils exhibited the highest rates of oxygen consumption along the TAI. Model simulations of oxygen consumption suggested that oxygen consumption had stronger abiotic controls in wetland soils but stronger biotic controls in upland soils, providing a useful framework for future incubation experiments. Microbial activity is a strong driver of oxygen consumption in TAI soils, although it is constrained by the availability of dissolved carbon in subsurface soils.This dataset contains a compressed (.zip) archive of the data and R scripts used for this manuscript. The dataset includes files in .csv format, which can be accessed and processed using MS Excel or R. This archive can also be accessed on GitHub at https://github.com/COMPASS-DOE/cmps-time_to_anoxia (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10815374).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting spring green-up across diverse North American grasslands

Vegetation phenology influences many ecosystem and climate processes, such as carbon uptake and energy and water cycles. Thus, understanding drivers of vegetation phenology is crucial for predicting current and future impacts of climate change on ecological systems. Existing models can accurately predict the date of spring green-up in temperate forests but tend to perform poorly in grassland systems. We hypothesize this is because most do not incorporate water availability, a primary limiting factor for grassland plants. In this study, we used long-term datasets of digital imagery from the PhenoCam Network of 43 diverse North American grassland sites (195 site-years) to test existing spring phenology models, as well as develop several new models that incorporate precipitation or soil moisture (53 models). As a result, most of the new models performed substantially better, with the best model requiring sufficient accumulated precipitation followed by warm temperatures to trigger spring onset (root mean square error, RMSE, between predicted and observed dates = 16.0 days). Importantly, the best model performed well across all grassland types using a single set of parameters, from temperate to arid grasslands. Since plants are adapted to their local climates, model performance was further improved when parameters were independently optimized for four separate climate regions (RMSE = 10.4 days). Therefore, both sufficient precipitation and temperature are required for grassland green-up, but optimal thresholds vary by region. Running the top model with projected climate data (representative concentration pathway 8.5) suggests that, depending on the climate region, spring onset will occur up to 12 days earlier within 100 years in temperature-limited sites, but the trend is unclear for precipitation-limited sites (3.5 ± 8.0 days later). This new phenology model improves our ability to understand and predict grassland dynamics, with implications for both current and future ecosystem processes related to carbon and water cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climatology and Evolution of the Antarctic Peninsula Föhn Wind-Induced Melt Regime From 1979–2018

Warm and dry föhn winds on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) cause surface melt that can destabilize vulnerable ice shelves. Topographic funneling of these downslope winds through mountain passes and canyons can produce localized wind-induced melt that is difficult to quantify without direct measurements. Our Föhn Detection Algorithm (FöhnDA) identifies the surface föhn signature that causes melt from measurement by 12 Automatic Weather Stations on the AP, that train a machine learning model to detect föhn in 5 km Regional Atmospheric Climate Model 2 (RACMO2.3p2) simulations and in the ERA5 reanalysis model. We estimate the fraction of AP surface melt attributed to föhn and possibly katabatic winds and identify the drivers of melt, temporal variability, and long-term trends and evolution from 1979–2018. We find that föhn wind-induced melt accounts for 3.1% of the total melt on the AP and can be as high at 18% close to the mountains where the winds funnel through mountain canyons. Föhn-induced surface melt does not significantly increase from 1979–2018, despite a warmer atmosphere and more positive Southern Annular Mode. However, a significant increase (+0.1 Gt y-1) and subsequent decrease/stabilization occur in 1979–1998 and 1999–2018, consistent with the AP warming and cooling trends during the same time periods. Föhn occurrence, more than föhn strength, drives the annual variability in föhn-induced melt. Long-term föhn-induced melt trends and evolution are attributable to seasonal changes in föhn occurrence, with increased occurrence in summer, and decreased occurrence in fall, winter, and early spring over the past 20 years.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Soil Respiration Response to Rainfall Modulated by Plant Phenology in a Montane Meadow, East River, Colorado, USA

Soil respiration is a primary component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. However, predicting the response of soil respiration to climate change remains a challenge due to the complex interactions between environmental drivers, especially plant phenology, temperature, and soil moisture. In this study, we use a 1-D diffusion-reaction model to calculate depth-resolved CO 2 production rates from soil CO 2 concentrations and surface efflux observations in a subalpine meadow in the East River watershed, CO. Modeled rates are compared to in situ soil temperature and moisture conditions and MODIS satellite enhanced vegetation index (EVI) representing plant phenology across three hydrologically distinct growing seasons from 2016-2018. While soil respiration correlated with temperature on diel timescales (p<0.05), seasonal variability was dominated by soil moisture and plant phenology (p<0.05). We observed significant respiration increases in response to precipitation events; however, magnitude and duration were significantly higher in 2017 than 2016 despite similar wetting characteristics. Based on MODIS EVI, we suggest the respiration response to rainfall is controlled by plant phenology, which in turn reflects the capacity of plants to respond to precipitation via increased photosynthesis and autotrophic respiration, behavior that is not captured in typical soil respiration pulse models. Projected changes in montane climate such as earlier snowmelt and prolonged fore-summer drought may decrease soil respiration fluxes by decreasing the overlap between peak productivity and the summer monsoon. Lastly, we observed significant late-season CO 2 fluxes from the deep sub-soil (>165 cm) that support growing evidence for the importance of sub-soil processes in driving integrated respiration fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing

Lake ecosystems are jeopardized by the impacts of climate change on ice seasonality and water temperatures. Yet historical simulations have not been used to formally attribute changes in lake ice and temperature to anthropogenic drivers. In addition, future projections of these properties are limited to individual lakes or global simulations from single lake models. Here we uncover the human imprint on lakes worldwide using hindcasts and projections from five lake models. Reanalysed trends in lake temperature and ice cover in recent decades are extremely unlikely to be explained by pre-industrial climate variability alone. Ice-cover trends in reanalysis are consistent with lake model simulations under historical conditions, providing attribution of lake changes to anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, lake temperature, ice thickness and duration scale robustly with global mean air temperature across future climate scenarios (+0.9 °C °C air –1 , –0.033 m °C air –1 and –9.7 d °C air –1 , respectively). Furthermore, these impacts would profoundly alter the functioning of lake ecosystems and the services they provide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geographical Insights into Suicide Mortality Through Spatial Machine Learning

Suicide mortality is a leading cause of death in the United States, with an upward trend that emphasizes its significance as a public health issue. Previous research has employed global models like ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and local models such as geographically weighted regression (GWR). While local models are useful for analyzing spatial variations in suicide mortality, they share limitations with traditional global models, particularly about their inability to handle multi-collinearity and non-linear relationships. Machine learning approaches, like random forests (RF), can address some of these limitations but often fail to account for spatial variability. This gap highlights the need for spatial ML models specifically designed to tackle suicide mortality. This research seeks to fill this void by using a geographically weighted random forest model (GWRF) to examine the associations between county-level suicide mortality in the U.S. from 2010 to 2020 and various social and environmental determinants of health. A key aspect of our methodology is disciplined feature selection, which reduces the pool of explanatory variables by about 90%. This refinement enhances the explanatory power of both global (R2 improved from 0.59 to 0.67) and local (R2 improved from 0.64 to 0.67) RF models while reducing their run times. An analysis of the importance scores for these selected features reveals that the drivers of suicide mortality vary by context. Thus, to effectively address regional disparities and inform targeted public health interventions, a holistic approach that incorporates multiple county-level characteristics is essential.

Lebakula, Viswadeep [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000152935914↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pest suppression potential varies across 10 bioenergy cropping systems

Abstract Top‐down suppression of herbivores is a fundamental ecological process and a critical service in agricultural landscapes. Adoption of bioenergy cropping systems is likely to become an increasingly important driver causing loss or gain of this service in coming decades. We measured natural pest suppression potential in ten model bioenergy crops in a long‐term experimental array by deploying plasticine sentinel caterpillar mimics, which record imprints from predator attacks. Cropping systems included three intensive annual row crop systems and a range of simple perennial monocultures and more complex polycultures. We compared attack rates across the ten cropping systems and assessed differences over time within a growing season and between the ground level and canopy. We found strong differences in attack rates across cropping systems, usually with more attacks in perennial crops than annuals. However, outcomes varied in space and time, both within and among cropping systems. Birds and small mammals were responsible for most, and sometimes all, attacks in annual crops and were most important early in the season. Chewing arthropod attacks increased over the course of the growing season and were responsible for most attack events in perennial systems. In late summer there were almost no attacks in annual crop canopies, while attack rates in perennial canopies at the same time were quite high and were carried out almost entirely by chewing arthropods. Our results underscore the lack of trophic complexity in annual bioenergy cropping systems relative to perennials. They also illustrate the dramatic changes in predator activity and predation intensity that occur both seasonally and between the ground and plant canopy. Policies and practices that increase the footprint of annual crops for bioenergy are likely to cause a deficit in pest suppression services at local and landscape scales.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗