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At least 469 records · Page 26

Optimization of space manufacturing systems

Four separate analyses are detailed: transportation to low earth orbit, orbit-to-orbit optimization, parametric analysis of SPS logistics based on earth and lunar source locations, and an overall program option optimization implemented with linear programming. It is found that smaller vehicles are favored for earth launch, with the current Space Shuttle being right at optimum payload size. Fully reusable launch vehicles represent a savings of 50% over the Space Shuttle; increased reliability with less maintenance could further double the savings. An optimization of orbit-to-orbit propulsion systems using lunar oxygen for propellants shows that ion propulsion is preferable by a 3:1 cost margin over a mass driver reaction engine at optimum values; however, ion engines cannot yet operate in the lower exhaust velocity range where the optimum lies, and total program costs between the two systems are ambiguous. Heavier payloads favor the use of a MDRE. A parametric model of a space manufacturing facility is proposed, and used to analyze recurring costs, total costs, and net present value discounted cash flows. Parameters studied include productivity, effects of discounting, materials source tradeoffs, economic viability of closed-cycle habitats, and effects of varying degrees of nonterrestrial SPS materials needed from earth. Finally, candidate optimal scenarios are chosen, and implemented in a linear program with external constraints in order to arrive at an optimum blend of SPS production strategies in order to maximize returns.

Akin, D. L.↗

Climate change reshapes the drivers of false spring risk across European trees

Temperate and boreal forests are shaped by late spring freezing events after budburst, which are also known as false springs. Research has generated conflicting results on whether or not these events will change with climate change, potentially because---to date---no study has compared the myriad climatic and geographic factors that contribute to a plant's risk of a false spring. We assessed and compared the strength of the effects of mean spring temperature, distance from the coast, elevation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) using PEP725 leafout data for six temperate, decidious tree species across 11,648 sites in Central Europe and how these predictors shifted with climate change. Across species before recent warming, mean spring temperature and distance from the coast were the strongest predictors, with higher mean spring temperatures associated with decreased risk in false springs (–7.64% per 2°C increase) and sites further from the coast experiencing an increased risk (5.32% per 150km from the coast). Elevation (2.23% per 200m increase in elevation) and NAO index (1.91% per 0.3 increase) also increased false spring risk. With climate change, elevation and distance from coast---i.e., the geographic factors---remain relatively stable, while climatic factors shifted in magnitude for mean spring temperature (down to -2.84% in risk per 2°C), and in direction, with positive NAO phases leading to lower risk (-9.15% per 0.3). The residual effects of climate change---unexplained by the climatic and geographic factors already included in the model---magnified the species-level variation in risk, with risk increasing among early-leafout species (i.e., Aesculus hippocastanum, Alnus glutinosa and Betula pendula) but a decline or no change in risk among late-leafout species (i.e., Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior and Quercus robur). Our results show that climate change has reshaped the major drivers of false spring risk and highlight how considering multiple factors can yield a better understanding of the complexities of climate change.

Climate change↗

Experimental investigation of nozzle/plume aerodynamics at hypersonic speeds

Work continued on the improvement of 16-Inch Shock Tunnel. This comprised studies of ways of improving driver gas ignition, an improved driver gas mixing system, an axial translation system for the driver tube, improved diaphragm materials (carbon steel vs. stainless steel), a copper liner for the part of the driven tube near the nozzle, the use of a buffer gas between the driver and driven gases, the use of N2O in the driven tube, the use of a converging driven tube, operation of the facility as a non-reflected shock tunnel and expansion tube, operation with heated hydrogen or helium driver gas, the use of detonations in the driver and the construction of an enlarged test section. Maintenance and developmental work continued on the scramjet combustor continued. New software which greatly speeds up data analysis has been written and brought on line. In particular, software which provides very rapid generation of model surface heat flux profiles has been brought on line. A considerable amount of theoretical work was performed in connection with upgrading the 16 Inch Shock Tunnel Facility. A one-dimensional Godunov code for very high velocities and any equation of state is intended to add viscous effects in studying the operation of the Shock Tunnel and also of two-stage light gas guns.

Bogdanoff, David W.↗

The Effect of Magnetic Topology on the Escape of Flare Particles

Magnetic reconnection in the solar atmosphere is believed to be the driver of most solar explosive phenomena. Therefore, the topology of the coronal magnetic field is central to understanding the solar drivers of space weather. Of particular importance to space weather are the impulsive Solar Energetic particles that are associated with some CME/eruptive flare events. Observationally, the magnetic configuration of active regions where solar eruptions originate appears to agree with the standard eruptive flare model. According to this model, particles accelerated at the flare reconnection site should remain trapped in the corona and the ejected plasmoid. However, flare-accelerated particles frequently reach the Earth long before the CME does. We present a model that may account for the injection of energetic particles onto open magnetic flux tubes connecting to the Earth. Our model is based on the well-known 2.5D breakout topology, which has a coronal null point (null line) and a four-flux system. A key new addition, however, is that we include an isothermal solar wind with open-flux regions. Depending on the location of the open flux with respect to the null point, we find that the flare reconnection can consist of two distinct phases. At first, the flare reconnection involves only closed field, but if the eruption occurs close to the open field, we find a second phase involving interchange reconnection between open and closed. We argue that this second reconnection episode is responsible for the injection of flare-accelerated particles into the interplanetary medium. We will report on our recent work toward understanding how flare particles escape to the heliosphere. This work uses high-resolution 2.5D MHD numerical simulations performed with the Adaptively Refined MHD Solver (ARMS).

Antiochos, S. K.↗

Ion propulsion cost effectivity

Ion propulsion modules employing 8-cm thrusters and 30-cm thrusters were studied for Multimission Modular Spacecraft (MMS) applications. Recurring and nonrecurring cost elements were generated for these modules. As a result, ion propulsion cost drivers were identified to be Shuttle charges, solar array, power processing, and thruster costs. Cost effective design approaches included short length module configurations, array power sharing, operation at reduced thruster input power, simplified power processing units, and power processor output switching. The MMS mission model employed indicated that nonrecurring costs have to be shared with other programs unless the mission model grows. Extended performance missions exhibited the greatest benefits when compared with monopropellant hydrazine propulsion.

Zafran, S.↗

Electric propulsion cost estimation

A parametric cost model for mercury ion propulsion modules is presented. A detailed work breakdown structure is included. Cost estimating relationships were developed for the individual subsystems and the nonhardware items (systems engineering, software, etc.). Solar array and power processor unit (PPU) costs are the significant cost drivers. Simplification of both of these subsystems through applications of advanced technology (lightweight solar arrays and high-efficiency, self-radiating PPUs) can reduce costs. Comparison of the performance and cost of several chemical propulsion systems with the Hg ion module are also presented. For outer-planet missions, advanced solar electric propulsion (ASEP) trip times and O2/H2 propulsion trip times are comparable. A three-year trip time savings over the baselined NTO/MMH propulsion system is possible with ASEP.

Palaszewski, B. A.↗

Flexible Fabrics with High Thermal Conductivity for Advanced Spacesuits

This paper describes the effort and accomplishments for developing flexible fabrics with high thermal conductivity (FFHTC) for spacesuits to improve thermal performance, lower weight and reduce complexity. Commercial and additional space exploration applications that require substantial performance enhancements in removal and transport of heat away from equipment as well as from the human body can benefit from this technology. Improvements in thermal conductivity were achieved through the use of modified polymers containing thermally conductive additives. The objective of the FFHTC effort is to significantly improve the thermal conductivity of the liquid cooled ventilation garment by improving the thermal conductivity of the subcomponents (i.e., fabric and plastic tubes). This paper presents the initial system modeling studies, including a detailed liquid cooling garment model incorporated into the Wissler human thermal regulatory model, to quantify the necessary improvements in thermal conductivity and garment geometries needed to affect system performance. In addition, preliminary results of thermal conductivity improvements of the polymer components of the liquid cooled ventilation garment are presented. By improving thermal garment performance, major technology drivers will be addressed for lightweight, high thermal conductivity, flexible materials for spacesuits that are strategic technical challenges of the Exploration

Trevino, Luis A.↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-12137-DND

Future robotic missions to Mars and, eventually, human missions to Mars will require landing massive spacecraft with ?pin point? accuracy, e.g., the planned Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission will require ?pin point? landing accuracy to rendezvous with the previously cached Mars samples to be re-turned to Earth and the first human mission to Mars, with payloads estimated to be in excess of 40 metric tons, must land very close to the cargo spacecraft that precede it on the journey to Mars. Hence, ?pin point? entry, descent and landing (EDL) has become a major technological driver in future massive robot-ic and human mission to Mars [1]. To achieve ?pin point? EDL on Mars, we must predict the atmospheric density, atmospheric winds and atmospheric dust level to an accuracy previously unobtainable. To develop an accurate and precise predictive model of the atmosphere of Mars, we propose a Mars-orbiting LIDAR system to measure/monitor the density, winds and dust in the atmosphere of Mars over two Mars years. The LIDAR measurements will be used to develop an accurate model of the atmosphere of Mars to be used for ?pin point? EDL for future Mars missions.

U. N. Singh↗

Magnetized Target Fusion Driven by Plasma Liners

For practical applications of magnetized target fusion, standoff drivers to deliver the imploding momentum flux to the target plasma remotely are required. Quasi-spherically converging plasma jets have been proposed as standoff drivers for this purpose. The concept involves the dynamic formation of a quasi-spherical plasma liner by the merging of plasma jets, and the use of the liner so formed to compress a spheromak or a field reversed configuration (FRC). Theoretical analysis and computer modeling of the concept are presented. It is shown that, with the appropriate choice of the flow parameters in the liner and the target, the impact between the liner and the target plasma can be made to be shockless in the liner or to generate at most a very weak shock in the liner. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Thio, Y. C. Francis↗

Radiolytic Cryovolcanism Revisited

Location of Enceladus within the inner magnetosphere of Saturn makes it likely that energetic electron irradiation, ion-neutral chemistry of the emergent cryovolcanic plume gas, and resultant radiolytic modification of surface ice composition could impact long-term evolution of molecular composition in the global ice crust. Thermally-driven convection of ice in the south polar terrain would bring radiolytic oxidant products into contact with subsurface reservoirs of primordial organics on million-year time scales. The chemical reactions leading to CO2 gas production as a primary gas-piston driver of cryovolcanic activity would be exponentially elevated in the warm-ice margins of a heated fluid. The fluid temperature is typically assumed to be below 273 K but could be much higher in a gas-pressurized deep subsurface environment. The Perrier Ocean model has demonstrated how a CO2-loaded fluid could account for the observed jets, while the heat content of the fluid arising from the moon's deeper interior could support high levels of chemical reactivity in the thermal margins. Since mass loss and tidal dissipation arguments do not support continuous activity over billions of years, the activity is likely very episodic so that even low-level energy sources including irradiation-driven radiolysis of surface ices could substantially contribute to the chemical dynamics of the activity apparently now in high phase. A multi-phase thermochemical model, and supporting laboratory measurements of temperature-dependent reaction rates, are needed to investigate these potentially complex processes.

Cooper, John F.↗

Cabin Environment Physics Risk Model

This paper presents a Cabin Environment Physics Risk (CEPR) model that predicts the time for an initial failure of Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) functionality to propagate into a hazardous environment and trigger a loss-of-crew (LOC) event. This physics-of failure model allows a probabilistic risk assessment of a crewed spacecraft to account for the cabin environment, which can serve as a buffer to protect the crew during an abort from orbit and ultimately enable a safe return. The results of the CEPR model replace the assumption that failure of the crew critical ECLSS functionality causes LOC instantly, and provide a more accurate representation of the spacecraft's risk posture. The instant-LOC assumption is shown to be excessively conservative and, moreover, can impact the relative risk drivers identified for the spacecraft. This, in turn, could lead the design team to allocate mass for equipment to reduce overly conservative risk estimates in a suboptimal configuration, which inherently increases the overall risk to the crew. For example, available mass could be poorly used to add redundant ECLSS components that have a negligible benefit but appear to make the vehicle safer due to poor assumptions about the propagation time of ECLSS failures.

Risk↗

Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene

Megadroughts, often lasting multiple decades, have caused major ecological and societal disturbances in the past. While most research has focused on megadroughts in North America, the concept has gained increased international attention in recent years. In this Review, we discuss shared causes and features of Common Era and future megadroughts. Paleoclimate reconstructions spanning the last 2,000 years document the occurrence of megadroughts on every continent, save Antarctica. Megadroughts are often linked to decadal variations in sea surface temperatures, with radiative forcing and land-atmosphere interactions acting as secondary factors. Anthropogenic climate change has already contributed to recent megadroughts in southwestern North America and Chile-Argentina and will likely increase future megadrought risk and severity in many regions. Notably, future megadroughts will be differentiated from past events through higher temperatures, which act as the main driver of increased risk, severity, and impacts. Major deficiencies in our understanding of natural and anthropogenic megadrought processes remain, however. These include 1) sparse high-resolution paleoclimate information over some regions, 2) incomplete representations of internal variability and land-surface processes in climate models, and 3) the undetermined capacity of water-resource management systems to manage megadrought impacts. Resolving these key uncertainties will be necessary to increase confidence in projections of future megadrought risk and resiliency planning.

Droughts↗

Operations Assessment of Launch Vehicle Architectures using Activity Based Cost Models

The growing emphasis on affordability for space transportation systems requires the assessment of new space vehicles for all life cycle activities, from design and development, through manufacturing and operations. This paper addresses the operational assessment of launch vehicles, focusing on modeling the ground support requirements of a vehicle architecture, and estimating the resulting costs and flight rate. This paper proposes the use of Activity Based Costing (ABC) modeling for this assessment. The model uses expert knowledge to determine the activities, the activity times and the activity costs based on vehicle design characteristics. The approach provides several advantages to current approaches to vehicle architecture assessment including easier validation and allowing vehicle designers to understand the cost and cycle time drivers.

Ruiz-Torres, Alex J.↗

Anticipated Improvements to Net Surface Freshwater Fluxes from GPM

Evaporation and precipitation over the oceans play very important roles in the global water cycle, upper-ocean heat budget, ocean dynamics, and coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics. In the conventional representation of the terrestrial water cycle, the assumed role of the oceans is to act as near-infinite reservoirs of water with the main drivers of the water cycle being land- atmosphere interactions in which excess precipitation (P) over evaporation (E) is returned to the oceans as surface runoff and baseflow. Whereas this perspective is valid for short space and time scales -- fundamental principles, available observed estimates, and results from models indicate that the oceans play a far more important role in the large-scale water cycle at seasonal and longer timescales. Approximately 70-80% of the total global evaporation and precipitation occurs over oceans. Moreover, latent heat release into the atmosphere over the oceans is the major heat source driving global atmospheric circulations, with the moisture transported by circulations from oceans to continents being the major source of water precipitating over land. Notably, the major impediment in understanding and modeling the oceans role in the global water cycle is the lack of reliable net surface freshwater flux estimates (E - P fluxes) at the salient spatial and temporal resolutions, i.e., consistent coupled weekly to monthly E - P gridded datasets.

Smith, Eric A.↗

Augmented Adaptive Control of a Wind Turbine in the Presence of Structural Modes

Wind turbines operate in highly turbulent environments resulting in aerodynamic loads that can easily excite turbine structural modes, potentially causing component fatigue and failure. Two key technology drivers for turbine manufacturers are increasing turbine up time and reducing maintenance costs. Since the trend in wind turbine design is towards larger, more flexible turbines with lower frequency structural modes, manufacturers will want to develop methods to operate in the presence of these modes. Accurate models of the dynamic characteristics of new wind turbines are often not available due to the complexity and expense of the modeling task, making wind turbines ideally suited to adaptive control. In this paper, we develop theory for adaptive control with rejection of disturbances in the presence of modes that inhibit the controller. We use this method to design an adaptive collective pitch controller for a high-fidelity simulation of a utility-scale, variable-speed wind turbine operating in Region 3. The objective of the adaptive pitch controller is to regulate generator speed, accommodate wind gusts, and reduce the interference of certain structural modes in feedback. The control objective is accomplished by collectively pitching the turbine blades. The adaptive pitch controller for Region 3 is compared in simulations with a baseline classical Proportional Integrator (PI) collective pitch controller.

Frost, Susan A.↗

The Importance of HRA in Human Space Flight: Understanding the Risks

Human performance is critical to crew safety during space missions. Humans interact with hardware and software during ground processing, normal flight, and in response to events. Human interactions with hardware and software can cause Loss of Crew and/or Vehicle (LOCV) through improper actions, or may prevent LOCV through recovery and control actions. Humans have the ability to deal with complex situations and system interactions beyond the capability of machines. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a method used to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the occurrence of human failures that affect availability and reliability of complex systems. Modeling human actions with their corresponding failure probabilities in a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) provides a more complete picture of system risks and risk contributions. A high-quality HRA can provide valuable information on potential areas for improvement, including training, procedures, human interfaces design, and the need for automation. Modeling human error has always been a challenge in part because performance data is not always readily available. For spaceflight, the challenge is amplified not only because of the small number of participants and limited amount of performance data available, but also due to the lack of definition of the unique factors influencing human performance in space. These factors, called performance shaping factors in HRA terminology, are used in HRA techniques to modify basic human error probabilities in order to capture the context of an analyzed task. Many of the human error modeling techniques were developed within the context of nuclear power plants and therefore the methodologies do not address spaceflight factors such as the effects of microgravity and longer duration missions. This presentation will describe the types of human error risks which have shown up as risk drivers in the Shuttle PRA which may be applicable to commercial space flight. As with other large PRAs of complex machines, human error in the Shuttle PRA proved to be an important contributor (~12 percent) to LOCV. An existing HRA technique was adapted for use in the Shuttle PRA, but additional guidance and improvements are needed to make the HRA task in space-related PRAs easier and more accurate. Therefore, this presentation will also outline plans for expanding current HRA methodology to more explicitly cover spaceflight performance shaping factors.

Hamlin, Teri↗

The measurement of driver describing functions in simulated steering control tasks

Measurements of driver describing functions in steering control tasks have been made using a driving simulator. The task was to regulate against a random crosswind gust input on a straight roadway, in order to stay in the center of the lane. Although driving is a multiloop task in general, the forcing function and situation were configured so that an inner-loop visual cue feedback of heading angle of heading rate would dominate, and the driver's response was interpreted to be primarily single-loop. The driver describing functions were measured using an STI describing function analyzer. Three replications for each subject showed good repeatability within a subject. There were some intersubject differences as expected, but the crossover frequencies, effective time delays, and stability margins were generally consistent with the prior data and models for similar manual control tasks. The results further confirm the feasibility of measuring human operator response properties in nominal control tasks with full (real-world) visual field displays.

Weir, D. H.↗