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At least 469 records · Page 26

Optimization-Based Dynamic Voltage Support of Microgrids Using Energy Storage Systems

A microgrid network is characterized by a high R/X ratio, making the voltage more sensitive to active power changes compared to bulk power systems, where the voltage is regulated primarily by reactive power. Due to its sensitivity, voltage control approaches for microgrids should also consider the active power input coupling, making it very different from conventional power systems. Additionally, as the energy costs associated with active and reactive powers are different and the operational conditions of microgrids connected to active distribution systems vary over time, the ideal controller to provide voltage support must be flexible enough to handle these technical and operational constraints. This paper proposes a model predictive control approach to provide dynamic voltage support using energy storage systems. This approach uses a simplified predictive model of the system to solve the model predictive control problem. By proper selection of model predictive control weighting parameters, the quality of service provided can be adjusted to achieve the desired performance. A simulation study in MATLAB/Simulink validates the proposed approach for the Cordova, Alaska microgrid. Results show that the performance of the voltage support can be adjusted depending on the choice of weight and constraints of the controller.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Electronic Spin Relaxation and Clustering in High-Pressure High-Temperature Synthesized Microcrystalline Diamond Particles with Reduced Nitrogen Content

The negatively charged nitrogen-vacancy (NV – ) color center in diamonds is widely studied because of numerous applications of this unique quantum system in sensing and quantum information sciences. While substitutional nitrogen is required to form the NV – centers in diamond, it also yields other paramagnetic defects─primarily the neutrally charged substitutional nitrogen centers (P1)─that decrease NV – spin coherence, which in turn degrades performance in applications. Herein, we investigate high-pressure high-temperature synthesized diamond microparticles (ca. 140–185 μm) having lower─ranging from 3 to 38 ppm─than the typical nitrogen content of type 1b diamond ( ca. 100 ppm and higher) typically used for the production of fluorescent diamond particles with NV – centers. A suite of electron paramagnetic resonance, optically detected magnetic resonance, and nuclear magnetic resonance methods are used to characterize spin properties of P1 and NV – centers in the particles. Upon decreasing the nitrogen content from 29 to 3 ppm, the ensemble NV – T 2 relaxation time increased by about 3-fold as measured directly in the Hahn Echo experiment at magnetic field of 1.2 T. Analysis of electronic relaxation of P1 centers revealed the existence of at least two distinct populations of P1 centers, consisting of fast and slower relaxing spins and allowed for an estimation of local concentrations. Even with <10 ppm nitrogen contents, the analysis indicated a highly heterogeneous distribution of P1 centers, suggesting the possibility of P1 spin clustering even at low nitrogen concentrations. The combined data demonstrate that the particles prepared from HPHT diamond with a low nitrogen content offer improved spin properties that are beneficial for NV – sensing applications.

Carbon↗

Real-Time Multiregional Market-to-Market Congestion Management Through Exchange of Relief Cost Curve

This paper introduces a novel method for multiregional market-to-market (M2M) coordinated congestion management. It identifies shortcomings in existing M2M approaches, where Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) exchange shadow prices and relief requests to optimize congestion relief allocations across interconnected regions. Two methods are proposed to enhance flow and price convergence. The first method proposes that both Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) use state-estimator flows directly to determine relief requirements, eliminating delays and potential oscillations caused by using market flows calculated from the prior period under existing M2M approach. The second method involves exchanging transmission relief cost curves, enabling each RTOs to integrate other RTOs' relief costs curve into its real-time security-constrained economic dispatch (SCED). This method can effectively extend the coordination to multiple transmission lines and across more than two RTOs. The alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) is also applied to the M2M coordination problem and compared with the proposed methods. Case studies on small and large-scale systems demonstrate the effectiveness of these approaches.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Heavy-Duty Vehicle Activity Updates for MOVES Using NREL Fleet DNA and CE-CERT Data

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) is a publicly available tool used by researchers and policymakers to help understand motor vehicle emission sources at a national, county, and project level. Estimates of heavy-duty activity in the most recent version of the model at the time this work was conducted, MOVES2014, was identified as an area in need of improvement. The start activity in MOVES2014 is based on a limited and dated data set. In addition, MOVES2014 relies on drive cycles that represent on-network activity but do not account for idling activity that occurs on off-network roads, such as at a distribution center, while the truck is queuing or during loading and unloading. As a result, MOVES2014 may currently underestimate the number of starts and idle and soak time for heavy-duty trucks in real-world operation. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has previously leveraged its expansive Fleet DNA database of heavy-duty vehicles to idle and start activity for six of the nine heavy-duty vehicle source types of classes in the MOVES model. The data available in Fleet DNA from 416 conventional, diesel-powered vehicles provided activity estimates from more than 120,000 hours of operation throughout 14,682 vehicle days between October 2006 and January 2016. NREL calculated start fraction, starts per day, soak fraction, and idle fraction by hour of the day for each vehicle type, state, and vocation, and provided results in .CSV files that can be translated to MOVES table inputs. The idle and start activity from this initial analysis of Fleet DNA data was used to develop default idle and start data for heavy-duty vehicles in MOVES3. Satisfied with the results from the Fleet DNA data used for MOVES3, the EPA asked NREL to extend this start/soak/idle analysis using additional data from a larger number of vehicles for a potential future update to the MOVES model. Such a data set was achieved from a project led by the University of California at Riverside, College of Engineering, Center for Environmental Research & Technology (CE-CERT) and funded by California Air Resources Board. Specifically, this data set consists of 90 heavy-duty vehicles operated mainly in California, which can be separated into five of the nine heavy-duty vehicle classes in the MOVES model. In addition, the heavy-duty activity database collected by CE-CERT provided activity estimates from more than 44,000 hours of operation throughout 4,724 vehicle days between November 2014 and September 2016. This report details the analysis of the heavy-duty activity database collected from the University of California at Riverside by providing graphical analysis and context for the start, soak, and idle distributions. The comparison of the related results from both the Fleet DNA and CE-CERT data sets are documented as well.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Herbaceous Feedstock 2018 State of Technology Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) promotes the production of advanced liquid transportation fuels from lignocellulosic biomass by funding fundamental and applied research that advances the state of technology (SOT). As part of its involvement with this mission, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) completes an annual SOT report for biomass feedstock logistics. This report summarizes supply system impacts of Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO)-funded research and development efforts at INL and elsewhere (such as the High-Tonnage Feedstock Logistics projects (Webb et al. 2013a, Webb et al. 2013b, Webb et al. 2013c, Webb and Sokhansanj 2014, Sokhansanj et al. 2014) that lead to improvements in feedstock supply systems. These include improvements to and observed performance of innovative harvest and collection methods, storage technologies, transportation and handling approaches, and advanced preprocessing technologies. Biomass quality and variability, and the interface between feedstock quality and conversion performance are key drivers in addition to delivered feedstock cost. In this report, we estimate the benefits of R&D improvements to individual supply system unit operations, and present the status of feedstock logistics technology development for converting biomass into biofuels. These analyses are supported by experimental data where possible, and help to align the SOT relative to the cost goals defined in the Multi-Year Program Plan. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT aligned feedstock logistic design with current biorefinery’s design capacity utilized by biochemical conversion platform. Currently biochemical conversion platform utilizes a 725,000 dry ton/year biorefiney design for the techno economic analysis. Hence, feedstock delivered cost in the 2018 Herbaceous SOT is calculated based on biorefinery’s 725,000 dry ton design capacity instead of 800, 000 dry ton capacity utilized in the 2017 Herbaceous SOT. Biomass availabilities in this SOT were updated to year 2018 data from the 2016 Billion-Ton Report (BT16) (DOE 2016a), with the exception of switchgrass, for which the 2018 Herbaceous SOT utilized the 2019 switchgrass availability data from BT16. The BT16 report (DOE 2016a) does not project switchgrass availability in 2018; the soonest switchgrass is available in the BT16 report is 2019. Therefore, availability of switchgrass for this analysis was that projected for 2019. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT incorporates same technologies utilized in the 2017 Herbaceous SOT. However, a sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the impact of variation of process parameters on those technologies on feedstock logistic cost. New R&D data that shows the variations of process parameters affecting process performance is incorporated in the 2018 SOT to measure the variations in delivered feedstock cost. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT has also provided projected delivered feedstock of 2022 design case based on near term technical target under BETO funded R&D project. Finally, updated biorefinery size of 725,000 dry ton/year was incorporated within least-cost formulation model to select optimal siting and depot scales during optimization of the least cost blend. This modification to the optimization algorithm allows the trade-off between the cost of increased supply radius and the savings from selecting biomass from higher producing counties to be assessed. Such optimization has also showed the economic benefit of decentralized depots in comparison to centralized preprocessing co-located with the biorefinery by decoupling the biorefinery and feedstock locations. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT report documents the current modeled cost of a herbaceous feedstock supply system (from harvest to the pretreatment reactor throat, including grower payment) for hydrocarbon fuel production via biochemical conversion, based on equipment and processes now available or potentially available in the near term. The modeled cost also considers both the required quality and the availability of the biomass resources. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT predicts a modeled delivered feedstock cost of $83.67/dry ton (2016$); this is a $0.23/dry ton (2016$) decrease from the 2017 Herbaceous SOT. The modification of biorefinery’s designed capacity and increased projected biomass availability in the same supply shed contributed to this modeled cost reduction. The least-cost formulation model to optimally site and scale local distributed preprocessing depots also contributed to the cost reduction by considering county-level grower payment and distance from the biorefinery as variables in the optimization algorithm. Sensitivity analysis on various process parameters that affect delivered feedstock cost in the 2018 Herbaceous SOT shows that the delivered cost could varies from $80.45-$88.83/dry ton. The top factors that causes such variations are: effective baling rate, bale density, hammer mill throughput, interest rate and storage dry matter loss.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Subsurface Characterization and Machine Learning Predictions at Brady Hot Springs Results

Geothermal power plants typically show decreasing heat and power production rates over time. Mitigation strategies include optimizing the management of existing wells - increasing or decreasing the fluid flow rates across the wells - and drilling new wells at appropriate locations. The latter is expensive, time-consuming, and subject to many engineering constraints, but the former is a viable mechanism for periodic adjustment of the available fluid allocations. Data and supporting literature from a study describing a new approach combining reservoir modeling and machine learning to produce models that enable strategies for the mitigation of decreased heat and power production rates over time for geothermal power plants. The computational approach used enables translation of sets of potential flow rates for the active wells into reservoir-wide estimates of produced energy and discovery of optimal flow allocations among the studied sets. In our computational experiments, we utilize collections of simulations for a specific reservoir (which capture subsurface characterization and realize history matching) along with machine learning models that predict temperature and pressure timeseries for production wells. We evaluate this approach using an "open-source" reservoir we have constructed that captures many of the characteristics of Brady Hot Springs, a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA. Selected results from a reservoir model of Brady Hot Springs itself are presented to show successful application to an existing system. In both cases, energy predictions prove to be highly accurate: all observed prediction errors do not exceed 3.68% for temperatures and 4.75% for pressures. In a cumulative energy estimation, we observe prediction errors that are less than 4.04%. A typical reservoir simulation for Brady Hot Springs completes in approximately 4 hours, whereas our machine learning models yield accurate 20-year predictions for temperatures, pressures, and produced energy in 0.9 seconds. This paper aims to demonstrate how the models and techniques from our study can be applied to achieve rapid exploration of controlled parameters and optimization of other geothermal reservoirs. Includes a synthetic, yet realistic, model of a geothermal reservoir, referred to as open-source reservoir (OSR). OSR is a 10-well (4 injection wells and 6 production wells) system that resembles Brady Hot Springs (a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA) at a high level but has a number of sufficiently modified characteristics (which renders any possible similarity between specific characteristics like temperatures and pressures as purely random). We study OSR through CMG simulations with a wide range of flow allocation scenarios. Includes a dataset with 101 simulated scenarios that cover the period of time between 2020 and 2040 and a link to the published paper about this project, where we focus on the Machine Learning work for predicting OSR's energy production based on the simulation data, as well as a link to the GitHub repository where we have published the code we have developed (please refer to the repository's readme file to see instructions on how to run the code). Additional links are included to associated work led by the USGS to identify geologic factors associated with well productivity in geothermal fields. Below are the high-level steps for applying the same modeling + ML process to other geothermal reservoirs: 1. Develop a geologic model of the geothermal field. The location of faults, upflow zones, aquifers, etc. need to be accounted for as accurately as possible 2. The geologic model needs to be converted to a reservoir model that can be used in a reservoir simulator, such as, for instance, CMG STARS, TETRAD, or FALCON 3. Using native state modeling, the initial temperature and pressure distributions are evaluated, and they become the initial conditions for dynamic reservoir simulations 4....

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NLR's FleetDNA Speed Distributions for EPA MOVES

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) models mobile sources of air toxics at small and large scales across the Unites States. Vehicle speed distributions based on the type of vehicle, type of road traveled, and hour of the day are inputs into MOVES. In conjunction with vehicle miles traveled (VMT) inputs, they are used to estimate total operation time and select the relevant driving cycles from which running operating modes and emissions are estimated. In an ongoing research effort, the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) partnered with the EPA to provide default average speed data for heavy-duty vehicles based on NLR's FleetDNA database and the Bourns College of Engineering - Center for Environmental Research and Technology (CE-CERT) data set from the University of California, Riverside.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Grid Resiliency using Hydro-based Microgrids During Wildfires

The primary objective of this project is to assess the techno-economic viability of hydropower resources with supplementary investments, including microgrid controllers, storage solutions, load banks, additional generation like diesel generators, communication links, and transmission infrastructure. The aim is to enable these systems to operate autonomously (in islanded mode) and ensure grid resiliency during and after wildfire events. The project seeks to establish a comprehensive framework for setting up hydropower-based microgrids, from risk estimation to final investment decisions. These microgrids can provide critical support during emergencies and offer additional grid stability and revenue opportunities during regular operations and other system contingencies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A neural-network-enhanced parameter-varying framework for multi-objective model predictive control applied to buildings

Management of the electrical grid is becoming more complex due to the increased penetration of alternative energy generation technologies and a broadening diversity of electric loads. This complexity creates challenges in balancing demand and generation that can increase the potential for grid instabilities. One effective way to address this issue is to leverage previously unexploited demand flexibility through advanced control strategies. In this work, we propose an advanced control method, called adaptive neural parameter-varying model predictive control (ANPV-MPC), to control the temperature and energy consumption of a building via its Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning system. ANPV-MPC combines key ideas in parameter-varying control, adaptive control, and online learning strategies to bridge the gap between computationally efficient linear model predictive control and more accurate nonlinear model predictive control. The novelty in ANPV-MPC is the use of a physics-inspired Bayesian neural network to estimate the coefficients of the parameter-varying linear control model. The Bayesian neural network additionally provides uncertainty estimates, triggering online training to capture evolving building system conditions. We show that ANPV-MPC can approximate the building system dynamics with a 28.39% higher accuracy than traditional linear model predictive control, resulting in 36.23% better control performance without increasing complexity of the optimal control problem. ANPV-MPC also adapts in real time to previously unseen conditions using online learning, further improving its performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Estimating Flexibility Envelopes for Residential Customers From Utility Smart Meter Data: Preprint

Demand response from residential customers has significant potential to support power system operations, but accurate flexibility estimation is challenging due to the limited resolution of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data. Most utility AMI measurements are recorded at hourly intervals, with only a small portion at higher resolutions, and even fewer households have appliance-level energy usage data. To address this issue, this paper proposes a two-stage long short-term memory (LSTM) framework for estimating household flexibility envelopes from low-resolution AMI data. In the first stage, the heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) load and non-HVAC loads are estimated by using a model trained on a small set of households with appliance-level profiles. These estimated data are then used to compute the upper- and lower-flexibility bounds, which are subsequently down-sampled to lower-resolution data. In the second stage, these flexibility bounds serve as training inputs for another LSTM model, enabling direct prediction of flexibility envelopes for households with only hourly AMI data. This method is validated using Pecan Street data from two different areas, and the results demonstrate its applicability and effectiveness.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Oak Ridge National Laboratory EAGLE-I TM : Modeling Electric Utility County Customers for Situational Awareness

During natural hazard events (hurricanes, wildfires, earthquakes, etc.) and recent man-made events (e.g., cyber attacks), the exchange of near real-time, spatially refined data within the response community is critical. The EAGLE-I$^{TM}$ platform is one tool that facilitates this data for decision makers within the energy sector. While much information can be collected and integrated into the system directly, other pertinent data must be augmented by other derived data products to enhance the information and allow for a consistent evaluation of on-the-ground conditions. One such data set that requires the addition of other derived data is the electric utility customer outage data that is aggregated to the county level within the EAGLE-I application. Without a county customer data set, outages can only be compared on total counts, which gives greater importance to higher population outages. Including an electric utility customer data set at the county level allows for these outage counts to be converted to percent outages and brings a consistent classification of outages and equal importance to all outages. To achieve this, several available data sets were combined and spatial disaggregation techniques were employed to model customer estimates at the county scale. This paper presents the approach to produce this data for the United States and lessons learned from working with these disparate data sets. Data validation is provided, where possible, and limitations of the model and possible improvements are discussed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Solar Radiation Using NA-CORDEX and the NSRDB

The current state-of-art for estimating long-term PV production uses long-term estimates of solar radiation variables, such as global horizontal irradiance (GHI), from previous years. This data is used in models such as the System Advisor Model (SAM) or PYSyst to predict annual production for a PV plant. This information is then used to estimate the production over the next 20 years (a typical plant lifetime) under the assumption that the variability over the current period is representative of the future. As the PV industry moves to extend plant lifetimes to 50 years the current assumptions of representativeness of weather may not be appropriate. This is especially true as our climate changes rapidly. To assess long-term PV production, future projections for solar radiation based on projected carbon emissions are readily available in regional and global climate models. However, climate model projections contain inherent biases that may need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. Several studies have analyzed projections of solar radiation for future years, however the accuracy of the model output compared to current and historic data has not been widely studied. Chen (2021) showed that available climate models do not accurately represent solar radiation in some cases, over-projecting GHI at the surface while under-projecting its obstructions, such as clouds and aerosols. This works aims to (1) increase understanding of the accuracy of solar radiation currently available in global and regional climate models and (2) implement bias correction through linear models based on reanalysis data compared to observed solar radiation. The latter aim will be conducted using available observed solar radiation data and modeled data from several regional climate models (RCMs). The bias correction method will be applied to projections of solar radiation resulting in a more accurate representation of the future of solar production.

climate data↗

Risk-Informed MultiPphysics BestEestimate Plus Uncertainties (BEPU) Application Development of RELAP5-3D Perturbation Model

The United States nuclear industry is facing a strong challenge to ensure maximum safety while enhancing economic benefit. Safety is a key parameter to all aspects related to light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs), especially cost savings. Since the goal is to extend the lifetimes of these NPPs, the traditional deterministic safety concept may not guarantee a current economic asset. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program has been promoting a wide range of research and development (R&D) in this field to maximize the safety, economics, and performance of these NPPs through improved scientific understanding. One of the best practices to achieve this goal is to identify and optimize safety margins, which can lead to cost reduction. To do this, under the LWRS framework, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway will focus on the optimization of safety margin and minimization of uncertainties to ensure both safety and economics at the highest level. The RISA Pathway will provide enhanced capabilities for analyzing and characterizing LWR systems performance by developing and demonstrating methods, tools, and data to enable risk-informed margins management (RIMM). The goals of the RISA Pathway are twofold: (1) deploy the risk-informed tools and methods that enable better representation of safety margins and factors that contribute to cost and safety; and (2) conduct advanced risk assessment applications with industry to support margin management strategies that enable more cost-effective plant operation. The tools and methods provided by the RISA Pathway will support effective margin management for both active and passive safety systems, structures, and components (SSC) of an NPP. The tools and methods used in the RISA Pathway should have high confidence and highest technical maturity for and implementation to industry at its current setting. They should also have a capability to support risk-informed decision making for both probabilistic and deterministic elements of safety. The RISA Pathway will, therefore, perform a comprehensive assessment of verification and validation (V&V) status of RISA Toolkit to enhance credibility RISA Toolkit which be used by industry. This report summarizes RELAP5-3D development activities for best estimated and uncertainty (BEPU) capability to support ongoing RISA Pathway pilot projects for risk informed uncertainty quantification applications. Work scope includes (1) development of initial perturbation model for selected closure laws and (2) testing of suitable probability distribution functions (PDF) for the selected correlations. Developed BEPU modules are tested with selected separate effect cases and compared with conventional thermal-hydraulics model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Probing triaxial deformation of atomic nuclei in high-energy heavy ion collisions

Most atomic nuclei are deformed with a quadrupole shape described by its overall strength β 2 and triaxiality γ. The deformation can be accessed in high-energy heavy ion collisions by measuring the collective flow response of the produced quark-gluon plasma to the eccentricity ε 2 and the density gradient d ⊥ in the initial state. Using an analytical estimate and a Glauber model, I show that the variances $\langleε^{2}_{2}\rangle$ or $\langle$(δd ⊥ /d ⊥ ) 2 $\rangle$ and skewnesses $\langleε^{2}_{2}δd_{⊥}/d_{⊥}\rangle$ or $\langle(δd_{⊥}/d_{⊥})^{3}\rangle$ have a simple analytical form of a'+b'β$^{2}_{2}$ and a'+[b'+c' cos(3γ)]β$^{3}_{2}$, respectively. From these, I constructed several normalized skewnesses to isolate the γ dependence from that of β 2 and show that the correlations between a normalized skewness and a variance can constrain simultaneously β 2 and γ. Assuming a linear relation with elliptic flow v 2 and mean-transverse momentum [p T ] of final-state particles, v 2 ∝ ε 2 and δ [p T ] / [p T ] ∝ δd ⊥ /d ⊥ , similar conclusions are also expected for the variances and skewnesses of v 2 and [p T ], i.e., a + bβ$^{2}_{2}$ for $\langle v^{2}_{2}\rangle$ and $\langle(δ[p_{T}] / [p_{T}])^{2}\rangle$ and a + [b + c cos (3γ)] β$^{3}_{2}$ for $\langle v^{2}_{2}δ [p_{T}] / [p_{T}]\rangle$ or $\langle(δ[p_{T}] / [p_{T}])^{3}\rangle$. My findings motivate a dedicated system scan of high-energy heavy ion collisions at RHIC and LHC to measure triaxiality of atomic nuclei: one first determines the coefficients b and c by collisions of isobaric near prolate nuclei, cos (3γ) ≈ 1, and near oblate nuclei, cos (3γ) ≈ –1 , with known β 2 values, followed by collisions of other species of interest with similar mass number. The (β 2 , γ) values for this species can be inferred directly from the measured variance and skewness observables from these collisions. Finally, the results demonstrate the unique opportunities offered by high-energy collisions as a tool to perform interdisciplinary nuclear physics studies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Prioritizing Uncertainties in Hydrogen Contribution to Risk in Post-Crash Outcomes for Rail

This report presents analysis from Sandia National Laboratories predicting contributions to risk associated with the use of hydrogen technology for rail. Event sequence diagrams are used to describe possible accident scenarios and progressions. Initiating event frequencies and branch event probabilities for each scenario are quantified with uncertainty using distributions fit to Federal Railroad Administration and U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration data on applicable accidents from 2000 to 2020. Uncertainty is propagated through the event sequence diagram to estimate the frequency and conditional probability of accident end states. The analysis identifies four scenarios with significant contributions to risk from hydrogen that are predicted to occur relatively frequently, which may inform priorities for reducing uncertainty. These scenarios are 1) overpressure events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and delayed ignition, 2) jet fire events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and immediate ignition, 3) jet fires resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and correct operation of the thermally-activated pressure relief device (TPRD) subsequent to the thermal insult, and 4) pressure burst resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and failure of the TPRD. Delayed and immediate hydrogen ignition probabilities are identified as being highly uncertain and potential candidates for reducing conservatism in the predicted frequencies for these two scenarios.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Improving Trustworthiness of Data-Driven Power Grid Contingency Analysis With Bayesian Residual Graph Neural Networks

The evolving energy landscape requires novel tools to efficiently perform contingency analysis and reliability assessment of power grids, potentially in real-time. The high computational cost of traditional power flow solvers limits their applicability in practice. Machine learning (ML) surrogates such as deep neural networks (NNs) accelerate power flow solvers computations, enabling high-order contingency analysis and real-time decision-making by learning highly nonlinear functions and integrating grid topology via graph architectures. However, (graph) NNs lack predictive power away from training data and do not provide predictive confidence estimates. Here, we present a Bayesian residual graph NN that integrates knowledge from low-fidelity data via residual training and embeds granular quantification of uncertainties, improving trustworthiness critical for high-consequence decision-making. Applying Bayesian concepts to NNs is challenging due to the high-dimensionality of both the parameter space, complicating derivation of a meaningful prior, and the output space in large grid systems, requiring enhanced techniques to assess the predicted high-dimensional uncertainties. Our contributions include: (1) Deriving a prior for fully connected and graph NNs that leverages low-fidelity data to guide mean predictions and appropriately control prior predictive uncertainty. (2) Integrating this prior within an ensembling with anchoring scheme for efficient approximate posterior inference. (3) Deriving enhanced metrics to assess accuracy of both the mean and uncertainty predictions in high dimensions, appropriately accounting for correlations propagated through graph layers. The resulting Bayesian residual graph NN is tested on a contingency analysis task for 14-bus and 118-bus grids.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Application of NEAMS Codes to Capture MSR Phenomena

This report documents work completed in FY21 under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program’s Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) Application Drivers activity at Argonne. The common focus was on identifying the modeling and simulation functional requirements for designing, licensing, and operating MSRs and applying those capabilities already developed in NEAMS tools to example problems of interest. The four main parts of this report each focuses on a specific area of simulation physics as it relates to MSR phenomena: fuel evolution, chemistry, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), and systems analysis. In terms of fuel evolution, which includes depletion, decay, on-line separations, and transmutation, the current state of computational capabilities for modeling this behavior in liquid-fueled molten salt reactor is discussed. Some of the functional requirements to accomplish the various applications of MSR fuel depletion modeling are highlighted, followed by a summary of recent approaches and code development activities. The chemistry functional requirements were discussed in the context of several applications of high importance for MSRs, such as corrosion, salt chemistry, and species transport. Each of these types of chemistry modeling have considerable impact on various aspects of reactor applications, including informing on reactor designs, improving operational efficiencies, analyzing safety and reactivity concerns, and estimating the mechanistic source term of the reactor. A brief overview is also provided on code development activities ongoing under NEAMS relevant to chemistry modeling of MSRs. In terms of CFD applications, the state-of-the-art spectral element code, Nek5000 was used to model the fluid dynamics within a full core of the Molten Salt Fast Reactor (MSFR) concept designed as part of the Euratom EVOL project. This concept was selected as the challenge problem because of its similar features to several U.S. industry concepts. The goal was to model some of the fast MSR design challenges, including potential large internal re-circulations, the need of accurate tracking of delayed neutron precursors (DNP), and the lack of relevant thermal-hydraulics models/correlations, etc. Therefore, a series of CFD models were created for the MSFR core cavity using a k – τ model two-equation model for the turbulence. These first full core results demonstrated that any potential recirculation zones could be properly identified with the current NEAMS CFD capabilities. The development of these models will also set the stage for future testing of Nek5000’s functionalities to model other MSR thermal-fluid phenomena. Lastly, the validation of SAM against experimental data from the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment, which started in FY19, continues with the inclusion of modeling the reactivity insertion tests. This involved using SAM and its point kinetics model for flowing fuel salt to recreate the time dependent power changes and response after positive reactivity insertions at the 1, 5, and 8 MWt power levels. Through these exercises, several code modifications were suggested to the SAM development team and accommodated to enable closer agreement with solid technical and physical justifications. These include adding a moderator reactivity feedback coefficient as an available input and modifying the solution approach for the point kinetics model. Additional SAM development suggestions for flowing fuel MSRs include adding the capability to allow the moderator power change proportionally with the reactor power and enabling specification of the power and DNP distributions separately.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗