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NASA NTRS2011

An Estimate of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for the 2011 Hurricane Season

Estimates are presented for the expected level of tropical cyclone activity for the 2011 North Atlantic Basin hurricane season. It is anticipated that the frequency of tropical cyclones for the North Atlantic Basin during the 2011 hurricane season will be near to above the post-1995 means. Based on the Poisson distribution of tropical cyclone frequencies for the current more active interval 1995-2010, one computes P(r) = 63.7% for the expected frequency of the number of tropical cyclones during the 2011 hurricane season to be 14 plus or minus 3; P(r) = 62.4% for the expected frequency of the number of hurricanes to be 8 plus or minus 2; P(r) = 79.3% for the expected frequency of the number of major hurricanes to be 3 plus or minus 2; and P(r) = 72.5% for the expected frequency of the number of strikes by a hurricane along the coastline of the United States to be 1 plus or minus 1. Because El Nino is not expected to recur during the 2011 hurricane season, clearly, the possibility exists that these seasonal frequencies could easily be exceeded. Also examined are the effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phase and climatic change (global warming) on tropical cyclone seasonal frequencies, the variation of the seasonal centroid (latitude and longitude) location of tropical cyclone onsets, and the variation of the seasonal peak wind speed and lowest pressure for tropical cyclones.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assessing Dual-Polarization Radar Estimates of Extreme Rainfall During Hurricane Harvey

Hurricane Harvey hit the Texas Gulf Coast as a major hurricane on August 25, 2017 before exiting the state as a tropical storm on August 29, 2017. Left in its wake was historic flooding, with some locations measuring more than 60 inches of rain over a five-day period. The WSR-88D radar (KHGX) maintained operations for the entirety of the event. Rain gauge data from the Harris County Flood Warning System (HCFWS) was used for validation with the full radar data set to retrieve daily and event-total precipitation estimates for the period August 25-29, 2017. The KHGX precipitation estimates were then compared to the HCFWS gauges. Three different hybrid polarimetric rainfall retrievals were used, along with attenuation-based retrieval that employs the radar-observed differential propagation. An advantage of using a attenuation-based retrieval is its immunity to partial beam blockage and calibration errors in reflectivity and differential reflectivity. All of the retrievals are susceptible to changes in the observed Drop Size Distribution (DSD). No in situ DSD data were available over the study area, so changes in the DSD were interpreted by examining the observed radar data. We examined the parameter space of two key values in the attenuation retrieval to test the sensitivity of the rain retrieval. Selecting a value of α=0.015 and β=0.600 and β=0.625 provided the best overall results, relative to the gauges, but more work needs to be done to develop an automated technique to account for changes in the ambient DSD.

David B Wolff↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flux Comparison of Master-8 and Ordem 3.1 Modelled Space Debris Population

With ESA’s Meteoroid And Space debris Terrestrial Environment Reference (MASTER-8) model and NASA’s Orbital Debris Engineering Model(ORDEM) 3.1, the two premier orbital debris engineering models have been officially released. The two models come with significant enhancements and now represent state-of-the-art orbital debris modelling for their respective agencies. Both models provide the community with estimates of the space debris environment from low Earth orbit (LEO) up to at least geostationary altitude. The MASTER population is an event-based simulation of all known events that generate debris and objects that are part of the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog, which provides coverage of objects with diameters down to approximately 10cm in LEO and 1 m in geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). Different models are used to simulate the artificial objects and their orbit evolution over time. These models are called “sources” since they assign an origin to each individual object and consist of fragments, solid rocket motor (SRM) remainders, sodium-potassium(NaK) droplets, paintflakes, ejecta, and multi-layer insulation (MLI) fragments. The objects from each source are characterized by having individual release mechanisms, as well as orbital distributions, material composition, size, and mass distributions. Dedicated radar and telescope observation data is used to calibrate the model for objects larger than 1 cm in LEO and larger than 10 cm in GEO. For calibrating the small-sized objects, below 1 cm, impact data from returned surfaces are analyzed. Because the >1cm object population is dominated by fragments, the fragmentation event database was updated to include new events, as well as re-evaluate past events. Special attention was drawn to re-evaluating theFengyun-1C anti-satellite test from 2007 and Cosmos-Iridium collision event from 2009 since these events shape the fragment population because of their severity. After 2009, the two largest fragmentations in terms of number of tracked debris are the Briz-M explosion in 2012 and the NOAA-16explosion in 2015. In total, there are 261 confirmed fragmentations in the database up to November 2016.The baseline population for ORDEM 3.1 is based on the U.S. SSN catalog, and observational datasets from radar, in situ, and optical sources provide a foundation from which the model populations are statistically extrapolated to smaller size regions. These regions are not well-covered by the SSN catalog yet may pose the greatest threat to operational spacecraft. The NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model is used to generate fragments greater than 1mm from collisions and explosions, and these fragment populations are scaled using ground-based radar data. Specific major debris-producing events, including the Fengyun-1C, Iridium 33, and Cosmos2251 debris clouds, and unique populations, such as NaK droplets, were re-examined, modelled, and added to the ORDEM environment separately. Optical measurement data is used to model the GEO population down to 10 cm. The debris environment is propagated using NASA’s LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model, and future explosions of intact objects and collisions involving objects greater than 10 cm are assessed statistically. The environment from a few millimetres down to 10 𝜇m is modelled using a special degradation model where small particles are generated from intact spacecraft and rocket bodies, then the populations are scaled to fit in situ cratering data from Space Shuttle returned surfaces. Fragments smaller than 10 cm are differentiated based on material density categories, i.e., high-, medium-, and low-density, to better characterize the potential debris risk posed to upper stages and spacecraft. This paper will discuss the MASTER and ORDEM approaches for modelling populations and compare fluxes for specific orbits, including sun-synchronous, ISS-altitude, geosynchronous transfer, and GEO. In the end, a conclusion is drawn towards the importance of having multiple fundamentally different, yet validated, models to estimate the space debris population.

Andre Horstmann↗
NASA NTRS2013

The GLAS Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document for Precision Orbit Determination (POD)

The Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) was the sole instrument for NASA's Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimetry mission. The primary purpose of the ICESat mission was to make ice sheet elevation measurements of the polar regions. Additional goals were to measure the global distribution of clouds and aerosols and to map sea ice, land topography and vegetation. ICESat was the benchmark Earth Observing System (EOS) mission to be used to determine the mass balance of the ice sheets, as well as for providing cloud property information, especially for stratospheric clouds common over polar areas. The GLAS instrument operated from 2003 to 2009 and provided multi-year elevation data needed to determine changes in sea ice freeboard, land topography and vegetation around the globe, in addition to elevation changes of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. This document describes the Precision Orbit Determination (POD) algorithm for the ICESat mission. The problem of determining an accurate ephemeris for an orbiting satellite involves estimating the position and velocity of the satellite from a sequence of observations. The ICESatGLAS elevation measurements must be very accurately geolocated, combining precise orbit information with precision pointing information. The ICESat mission POD requirement states that the position of the instrument should be determined with an accuracy of 5 and 20 cm (1-s) in radial and horizontal components, respectively, to meet the science requirements for determining elevation change.

Rim, Hyung Jin↗
NASA NTRS1991

Models of recurrent strike-slip earthquake cycles and the state of crustal stress

Numerical models of the strike-slip earthquake cycle, assuming a viscoelastic asthenosphere coupling model, are examined. The time-dependent simulations incorporate a stress-driven fault, which leads to tectonic stress fields and earthquake recurrence histories that are mutually consistent. Single-fault simulations with constant far-field plate motion lead to a nearly periodic earthquake cycle and a distinctive spatial distribution of crustal shear stress. The predicted stress distribution includes a local minimum in stress at depths less than typical seismogenic depths. The width of this stress 'trough' depends on the magnitude of crustal stress relative to asthenospheric drag stresses. The models further predict a local near-fault stress maximum at greater depths, sustained by the cyclic transfer of strain from the elastic crust to the ductile asthenosphere. Models incorporating both low-stress and high-stress fault strength assumptions are examined, under Newtonian and non-Newtonian rheology assumptions. Model results suggest a preference for low-stress (a shear stress level of about 10 MPa) fault models, in agreement with previous estimates based on heat flow measurements and other stress indicators.

Lyzenga, Gregory A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Singular Value Decomposition Framework for Retrievals with Vertical Distribution Information from Greenhouse Gas Column Absorption Spectroscopy Measurements

We review the singular value decomposition (SVD) framework and use it for quantifying and discerning vertical information in greenhouse gas retrievals from column integrated absorption measurements. While the commonly used traditional Bayesian optimal estimation (OE) assumes a prior distribution in order to regularize the inversion problem, the SVD approach identifies principal components that can be retrieved from the measurement without explicitly specifying a prior mean and prior covariance matrix. We review the SVD method, explicitly recognize the use of an uninformative prior and show it to incur no bias from the choice of the prior. We also make the connection between the SVD method and the pseudo-inverse, which makes it more intuitive and easy to understand. We illustrate the use of the SVD method on an integrated path differential absorption CO2 lidar measurement model and verify our derivations and bias-free properties versus optimal estimation using numerical simulations. In contrast, traditional OE retrievals exhibit bias when the prior mean used in the retrieval differs from the true mean. Hence, the SVD method is particularly useful for situations in which knowledge of the prior mean and prior covariance of the true state (e.g., greenhouse gas profiles) is inadequate.

Ramanathan, Anand K.↗
NASA NTRS1999

CARES/Life Ceramics Durability Evaluation Software Enhanced for Cyclic Fatigue

The CARES/Life computer program predicts the probability of a monolithic ceramic component's failure as a function of time in service. The program has many features and options for materials evaluation and component design. It couples commercial finite element programs--which resolve a component's temperature and stress distribution--to reliability evaluation and fracture mechanics routines for modeling strength-limiting defects. The capability, flexibility, and uniqueness of CARES/Life have attracted many users representing a broad range of interests and has resulted in numerous awards for technological achievements and technology transfer. Recent work with CARES/Life was directed at enhancing the program s capabilities with regards to cyclic fatigue. Only in the last few years have ceramics been recognized to be susceptible to enhanced degradation from cyclic loading. To account for cyclic loads, researchers at the NASA Lewis Research Center developed a crack growth model that combines the Power Law (time-dependent) and the Walker Law (cycle-dependent) crack growth models. This combined model has the characteristics of Power Law behavior (decreased damage) at high R ratios (minimum load/maximum load) and of Walker law behavior (increased damage) at low R ratios. In addition, a parameter estimation methodology for constant-amplitude, steady-state cyclic fatigue experiments was developed using nonlinear least squares and a modified Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. This methodology is used to give best estimates of parameter values from cyclic fatigue specimen rupture data (usually tensile or flexure bar specimens) for a relatively small number of specimens. Methodology to account for runout data (unfailed specimens over the duration of the experiment) was also included.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Detectability of Exo-Earths and Super-Earths via Resonant Signatures in Exozodiacal Clouds

Directly imaging extrasolar terrestrial planets necessarily means contending with the astrophysical noise of exozodiacal dust and the resonant structures created by these planets in exozodiacal clouds. Using a custom tailored hybrid symplectic integrator we have constructed 120 models of resonant structures created by exo-Earths and super-Earths on circular orbits interacting with collisionless steady-state dust clouds around a Sun-like star. Our models include enough particles to overcome the limitations of previous simulations that were often dominated by a handful of long-lived particles, allowing us to quantitatively study the contrast of the resulting ring structures. We found that in the case of a planet on a circular orbit, for a given star and dust source distribution, the morphology and contrast of the resonant structures depend on only two parameters: planet mass and (square root)ap/Beta, where ap is the planet's semi-major axis and Beta is the ratio of radiation pressure force to gravitational force on a grain. We constructed multiple-grain-size models of 25,000 particles each and showed that in a collisionless cloud, a Dohnanyi crushing law yields a resonant ring whose optical depth is dominated by the largest grains in the distribution, not the smallest. We used these models to estimate the mass of the lowest-mass planet that can be detected through observations of a resonant ring for a variety of assumptions about the dust cloud and the planet's orbit. Our simulations suggest that planets with mass as small as a few times Mars' mass may produce detectable signatures in debris disks at ap greater than or approximately equal to 10 AU.

Stark, Christopher C.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Statistical Model of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Western North Pacific with ENSO-Dependent Cyclogenesis

A new statistical model for western North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclone genesis and tracks is developed and applied to estimate regionally resolved tropical cyclone landfall rates along the coasts of the Asian mainland, Japan, and the Philippines. The model is constructed on International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) 1945-2007 historical data for the western North Pacific. The model is evaluated in several ways, including comparing the stochastic spread in simulated landfall rates with historic landfall rates. Although certain biases have been detected, overall the model performs well on the diagnostic tests, for example, reproducing well the geographic distribution of landfall rates. Western North Pacific cyclogenesis is influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This dependence is incorporated in the model s genesis component to project the ENSO-genesis dependence onto landfall rates. There is a pronounced shift southeastward in cyclogenesis and a small but significant reduction in basinwide annual counts with increasing ENSO index value. On almost all regions of coast, landfall rates are significantly higher in a negative ENSO state (La Nina).

Yonekura, Emmi↗
NASA NTRS2008

Potential Use of a Bayesian Network for Discriminating Flash Type from Future GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data

Continuous monitoring of the ratio of cloud flashes to ground flashes may provide a better understanding of thunderstorm dynamics, intensification, and evolution, and it may be useful in severe weather warning. The National Lighting Detection Network TM (NLDN) senses ground flashes with exceptional detection efficiency and accuracy over most of the continental United States. A proposed Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) will look at the western hemisphere, and among the lightning data products to be made available will be the fundamental optical flash parameters for both cloud and ground flashes: radiance, area, duration, number of optical groups, and number of optical events. Previous studies have demonstrated that the optical flash parameter statistics of ground and cloud lightning, which are observable from space, are significantly different. This study investigates a Bayesian network methodology for discriminating lightning flash type (ground or cloud) using the lightning optical data and ancillary GOES-R data. A Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) is set up with lightning as a "root" and data observed by GLM as the "leaves." This allows for a direct calculation of the joint probability distribution function for the lighting type and radiance, area, etc. Initially, the conditional probabilities that will be required can be estimated from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) together with NLDN data. Directly manipulating the joint distribution will yield the conditional probability that a lightning flash is a ground flash given the evidence, which consists of the observed lightning optical data [and possibly cloud data retrieved from the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) in a more mature Bayesian network configuration]. Later, actual GLM and NLDN data can be used to refine the estimates of the conditional probabilities used in the model; i.e., the Bayesian network is a learning network. Methods for efficient calculation of the conditional probabilities (e.g., an algorithm using junction trees), finding data conflicts, goodness of fit, and dealing with missing data will also be addressed.

Solakiewiz, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2017

Transient Thermal Analyses of Passive Systems on SCEPTOR X-57

As efficiency, emissions, and noise become increasingly prominent considerations in aircraft design, turning to an electric propulsion system is a desirable solution. Achieving the intended benefits of distributed electric propulsion (DEP) requires thermally demanding high power systems, presenting a different set of challenges compared to traditional aircraft propulsion. The embedded nature of these heat sources often preclude the use of traditional thermal management systems in order to maximize performance, with less opportunity to exhaust waste heat to the surrounding environment. This paper summarizes the thermal analyses of X-57 vehicle subsystems that don't employ externally air-cooled heat sinks. The high-power battery, wires, high-lift motors, and aircraft outer surface are subjected to heat loads with stringent thermal constraints. The temperature of these components are tracked transiently, since they never reach a steady-state equilibrium. Through analysis and testing, this report demonstrates that properly characterizing the material properties is key to accurately modeling peak temperature of these systems, with less concern for spatial thermal gradients. Experimentally validated results show the thermal profile of these systems can be sufficiently estimated using reduced order approximations.

Thermal Analyses↗
NASA NTRS2020

Texas Spectroscopic Search for Lyα Emission at the End of Reionization. III. The Lyα Equivalent-width Distribution and Ionized Structures at z > 7

Lyα emission from galaxies can be utilized to characterize the ionization state in the intergalactic medium (IGM). We report our search for Lyα emission at z > 7 using a comprehensive Keck/MOSFIRE near-infrared spectroscopic data set, as part of the Texas Spectroscopic Search for Lyα Emission at the End of Reionization Survey. We analyze data from 10 nights of MOSFIRE observations which together target 72 high-z candidate galaxies in the GOODS-N field, all with deep exposure times of 4.5–19 hr. Utilizing an improved automated emission-line search, we report 10 Lyα emission lines detected (>4σ) at z > 7, significantly increasing the spectroscopically confirmed sample. Our sample includes large equivalent-width (EW) Lyα emitters (>50 Å), and additional tentative Lyα emission lines detected at 3σ–4σ from five additional galaxies. We constrain the Lyα EW distribution at z ~ 7.6, finding a significant drop from z ≲ 6, suggesting an increasing fraction of neutral hydrogen (H I) in the IGM in this epoch. We estimate the Lyα transmission through the IGM (=EW(z)~7.6/EW(z~2–6)) and infer an IGM H I fraction (X(HI)) of 49 (+19,-19)% at z ~ 7.6, which is lower in modest tension (>1σ) with recent measurements at z ~ 7.6. The spatial distribution of the detected Lyα emitters implies the presence of a potential highly ionized region at z ~ 7.55, which hosts four Lyα emitters within a ∼40 cMpc spatial separation. The prominence of this ionized region in our data set could explain our lower inferred value of X(HI), though our analysis is also sensitive to the chosen reference Lyα EW distribution values and reionization models.

Intae Jung↗
NASA NTRS1998

Assessing the Geomorphic Evolution and Hydrographic Changes Induced by Winter Storms along the Louisiana Coast

The influence that cold front passages have on Louisiana coastal environments, including land loss and land building processes, has been the primary topic of this multidisciplinary research. This research has combined meteorological, remote sensing, and coastal expertise from the University of Wisconsin (UW) and Louisiana State University (LSU). Analyzed data sets include remotely sensed radiometric data (AVHRR on NOAA-12,13,14, Multispectral Atmospheric Mapping Sensor (MAMS) and MODIS Airborne Simulator (MAS) on NASA ER-2), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) water level data, water quality data from the Coastal Studies Institute (CSI) at LSU, USACE river discharge data, National Weather Service (NWS) and CSI wind in sitzi measurements, geomorphic measurements from aerial photography (NASA ER-2 and Learjet), and CSI ground based sediment burial pipes (for monitoring topographic change along the Louisiana coast) and sediment cores. The work reported here-in is a continuation of an initial investigation into coastal Louisiana landform modification by cold front systems. That initial effort demonstrated the importance of cold front winds in the Atchafalaya Bay sediment plume distribution (Moeller et al.), documented the sediment transport and deposition process of the western Louisiana coast (Huh et al.) and developed tools (e.g. water types identification, suspended solids estimation) from multispectral radiometric data for application to the current study. This study has extended that work, developing a Geomorphic Impact Index (GI(sup 2)) for relating atmospheric forcing to coastal response and new tools to measure water motion and sediment transport.

Menzel, W. Paul↗
NASA NTRS2019

Advanced Modular Power System Electronics Enclosure Thermal Testing

An analysis was set up to model the temperature of the advanced modular power system (AMPS) power distribution cards when installed within the electronics enclosure case. The analysis was used to determine the steady-state temperature distribution of the cards within the case. To verify the analysis, an experiment was set up and conducted to simulate the operation of the cards within the enclosure. Four tests were conducted. The tests varied the position of the cold plate and evaluated the use of a thermal compound to reduce the contact resistance between the joints within the thermal path between the cards and the cold plate. Three of the four cases examined showed very good agreement between the analysis and the experiment with a less than 1-percent variation in the predicated temperatures determined through the analysis and the experimentally derived temperatures. In the remaining case, the difference between the analysis and experiment was approximately 12 percent. Both the experiment and analysis showed that the modular power conditioning cards can be maintained within their desired maximum operating temperature range of 40 to 45 °C through thermal conduction to a cold plate when operating with their estimated maximum heat output of 16 W per card.

Colozza, Anthony J.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Utility of BRDF Models for Estimating Optimal View Angles in Classification of Remotely Sensed Images

Statistical classification of remotely sensed images attempts to discriminate between surface cover types on the basis of the spectral response recorded by a sensor. It is well known that surfaces reflect incident radiation as a function of wavelength producing a spectral signature specific to the material under investigation. Multispectral and hyperspectral sensors sample the spectral response over tens and even hundreds of wavelength bands to capture the variation of spectral response with wavelength. Classification algorithms then exploit these differences in spectral response to distinguish between materials of interest. Sensors of this type, however, collect detailed spectral information from one direction (usually nadir); consequently, do not consider the directional nature of reflectance potentially detectable at different sensor view angles. Improvements in sensor technology have resulted in remote sensing platforms capable of detecting reflected energy across wavelengths (spectral signatures) and from multiple view angles (angular signatures) in the fore and aft directions. Sensors of this type include: the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS), the multiangle imaging spectroradiometer (MISR), and the airborne solid-state array spectroradiometer (ASAS). A goal of this paper, then, is to explore the utility of Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) models in the selection of optimal view angles for the classification of remotely sensed images by employing a strategy of searching for the maximum difference between surface BRDFs. After a brief discussion of directional reflect ante in Section 2, attention is directed to the Beard-Maxwell BRDF model and its use in predicting the bidirectional reflectance of a surface. The selection of optimal viewing angles is addressed in Section 3, followed by conclusions and future work in Section 4.

Valdez, P. F.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Autonomous Navigation of a Lunar Relay Using GNSS and Other Measurements

Many of the highest priority destinations at the Moon lack a continuous view of Earth, such as the lunar poles or lunar far side. Exploration of these sites will require spacecraft in cislunar space to relay communications and provide position, navigation, and timing (PNT) services. Accurate knowledge of relay position, velocity, and time is essential to these services. This paper describes a concept for a PNT Instrument being developed for the Lunar Communications Relay and Navigation Systems (LCRNS) Project. The instrument is intended as a payload that would enable autonomous, on-board, real-time navigation and timing using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), optical navigation, and one-way measurements from Earth-based ground stations. Hardware-in-the-loop simulations using flight software are used to realistically characterize performance on hardware platforms with a path to flight. These results provide preliminary validation of the proposed PNT Instrument, demonstrate the benefits of augmenting GNSS with other measurements, and serve as an insightful reference for the design of future lunar missions, including those that will operate within the LunaNet framework of standards. This instrument concept relies on several technologies developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). For GNSS observables, the instrument relies on the high-altitude NavCube 3 mini (NC3m) GNSS receiver specifically designed for cislunar applications. The autoNGC system, which consists of flight software and a hardware platform, is responsible for fusing the observables using its extended Kalman filter, the Goddard Enhanced Onboard Navigation System (GEONS). Optical navigation observables are processed within autoNGC (“autonomous Navigation, Guidance, and Control”) using the Goddard Image Analysis & Navigation Tool (GIANT) which is also responsible for simulating high-fidelity images for test and analysis. In addition to describing the PNT Instrument and its components, the paper will present predicted performance based on simulation results. As a baseline, it will present GNSS-only hardware-in-the loop results using a NC3m test unit to process Spirent-simulated GPS signals in a potential lunar relay trajectory: a 12-hour elliptical frozen lunar orbit (ELFO). GEONS then processes the GPS pseudorange and time differenced carrier phase measurements to estimate and propagate the relay state (position, velocity, and time). These results extend previously published work that showed preliminary ELFO performance. Previous work has shown the importance of other measurement types, so additional simulations are performed which augment GNSS with ground station observables and several methods of optical navigation, including celestial navigation, limb-finding (e.g., observations of the lunar horizon), and terrain relative navigation (TRN). TRN involves correlating simulated predicted images of the lunar surface with actual imagery; misalignments of landmarks identified in each image are translated into relay state updates. TRN is valuable as a measurement of the relay’s state relative to the Moon, especially during GNSS outages or after maneuvers. One-way Pseudorange and Doppler measurements from Earth-based ground stations are also simulated. The full set of observables is processed using autoNGC. These simulations make use of autoNGC and NC3m test units, a lab atomic clock, and a pulse-per-second (PPS) generation and distribution system. This combination of subsystems, and the hardware platforms used in this analysis, represents a PNT Instrument that could be flown on a lunar relay. Results from the hardware-in-the-loop simulations presented in this paper provide a preliminary assessment of the achievable navigation performance of this instrument concept. PNT Instrument performance is compared to the GPS-only performance, and a discussion is provided on the apparent merits and challenges of each measurement type.

Ben Ashman↗
NASA NTRS2013

Analytical Algorithms to Quantify the Uncertainty in Remaining Useful Life Prediction

This paper investigates the use of analytical algorithms to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life (RUL) estimate of components used in aerospace applications. The prediction of RUL is affected by several sources of uncertainty and it is important to systematically quantify their combined effect by computing the uncertainty in the RUL prediction in order to aid risk assessment, risk mitigation, and decisionmaking. While sampling-based algorithms have been conventionally used for quantifying the uncertainty in RUL, analytical algorithms are computationally cheaper and sometimes, are better suited for online decision-making. While exact analytical algorithms are available only for certain special cases (for e.g., linear models with Gaussian variables), effective approximations can be made using the the first-order second moment method (FOSM), the first-order reliability method (FORM), and the inverse first-order reliability method (Inverse FORM). These methods can be used not only to calculate the entire probability distribution of RUL but also to obtain probability bounds on RUL. This paper explains these three methods in detail and illustrates them using the state-space model of a lithium-ion battery.

Sankararaman, Shankar↗
NASA NTRS2003

Potential Refinement of the ICRF

The analysis and data used for the ICRF represented the state of the art in global, extragalactic, X/S band microwave astrometry in 1995. The same general analysis method was used to extend the ICRF with subsequent VLBI data in a manner consistent with the original catalog. Since 1995 there have been considerable advances in the geodetic/astrometric VLBI data set and in the analysis that would significantly improve the systematic errors, stability, and density of the next realization of the ICRS when the decision is made to take this step. In particular, data acquired since 1990, including extensive use of the VLBA, are of higher quality and astrometric utility because of changes in instrumentation, schedule design, and networks as well as specifically astrometric intent. The IVS (International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry) continues to devote a portion of its observing capability to systematic extension of the astrometric data set. Sufficient data distribution exists to select a better set of defining sources. Improvements in troposphere modeling will minimize known systematic astrometric errors while accurate modeling and estimation of station effects from loading and nonlinear motions will permit the reintegration of the celestial reference frame, terrestrial reference frame and Earth orientation parameters though a single VLBI solution. The differences between the current ICRF and the potential next realization will be described.

Ma, Chopo↗