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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2000

Remotely Sensed Precipitation from the January 2000 East Coast Blizzard

Initial precipitation forecasts of the January 2000 blizzard were unable to adequately alert emergency response along the eastern seaboard. Cyclogenesis, over the Gulf of Mexico was a contributing cause of that problem. We present distributions of precipitation derived from spaceborne microwave measurements from the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) and the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) supplemented by NWS operational radar and the National lightning Detection Network (NLDN) Long-Range (LR) product. The combined NWS radar and NLDN-LR data revealed the location of precipitation between 1/23 and 1/27/2000 over the US, the Gulf and the Atlantic Ocean. The remotely sensed precipitation distributions are compared to the precipitation inferred from coincident TMI observations.

Chang, D.-E.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Observations with the Lunar Exploration Neutron Detector (LEND): Neutron Suppression Regions (NSR) and Polar Hydrogen

Orbital detection of neutrons has become the dominant remote sensing technique for detecting and inferring H concentrations and its spatial distribution beneath planetary surfaces [Lawrence et al, (2010) Icarus, 205, pp. 195-209, Mitrofanov et al (2007) Science 297(5578), 78-81]. Indications for the presence of localized and relatively high water content was provided by LRO and LCROSS. LEND identified Cabeus, as the most promising LCROSS impact site [Mitrofanov I. et al. (2010) Science, 330, 483], and instruments onboard LRO and LCROSS have measured signatures of water, H2 and other volatiles in the impact plume [Colaprete A. et al. (2010) Science, 339,463, Gladstone R. et al. (2010) Science, 330, 472].

Chin, G.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Comparison of Image Restoration Methods for Lunar Epithermal Neutron Emission Mapping

Orbital measurements of neutrons by the Lunar Exploring Neutron Detector (LEND) onboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter are being used to quantify the spatial distribution of near surface hydrogen (H). Inferred H concentration maps have low signal-to-noise (SN) and image restoration (IR) techniques are being studied to enhance results. A single-blind. two-phase study is described in which four teams of researchers independently developed image restoration techniques optimized for LEND data. Synthetic lunar epithermal neutron emission maps were derived from LEND simulations. These data were used as ground truth to determine the relative quantitative performance of the IR methods vs. a default denoising (smoothing) technique. We review and used factors influencing orbital remote sensing of neutrons emitted from the lunar surface to develop a database of synthetic "true" maps for performance evaluation. A prior independent training phase was implemented for each technique to assure methods were optimized before the blind trial. Method performance was determined using several regional root-mean-square error metrics specific to epithermal signals of interest. Results indicate unbiased IR methods realize only small signal gains in most of the tested metrics. This suggests other physically based modeling assumptions are required to produce appreciable signal gains in similar low SN IR applications.

McClanahan, T. P.↗
NASA NTRS2013

High-Contrast Near-Infrared Imaging Polarimetry of the Protoplanetary Disk around RY Tau

We present near-infrared coronagraphic imaging polarimetry of RY Tau. The scattered light in the circumstellar environment was imaged at H-band at a high resolution (approx. 0.05) for the first time, using Subaru-HiCIAO. The observed polarized intensity (PI) distribution shows a butterfly-like distribution of bright emission with an angular scale similar to the disk observed at millimeter wavelengths. This distribution is offset toward the blueshifted jet, indicating the presence of a geometrically thick disk or a remnant envelope, and therefore the earliest stage of the Class II evolutionary phase. We perform comparisons between the observed PI distribution and disk models with: (1) full radiative transfer code, using the spectral energy distribution (SED) to constrain the disk parameters; and (2) monochromatic simulations of scattered light which explore a wide range of parameters space to constrain the disk and dust parameters. We show that these models cannot consistently explain the observed PI distribution, SED, and the viewing angle inferred by millimeter interferometry. We suggest that the scattered light in the near-infrared is associated with an optically thin and geometrically thick layer above the disk surface, with the surface responsible for the infrared SED. Half of the scattered light and thermal radiation in this layer illuminates the disk surface, and this process may significantly affect the thermal structure of the disk.

protoplanetary disks↗
NASA NTRS2020

Modeling Heatshield Erosion due to Dust Particle Impacts for Martian Entries

Heatshield design for spacecraft entering the atmosphere of Mars may be affected by the presence of atmospheric dust. Particle impacts with sufficient kinetic energy can cause spallation damage to the heatshield that must be estimated. The dust environment in terms of particle size distribution and number density can be inferred from ground-based or atmospheric observations at Mars. Using a Lagrangian approach, the particle trajectories through the shock layer can be computed using a set of coupled ordinary differential equations. The dust particles are small enough that non-continuum effects must be accounted for when computing the drag coefficient and heat transfer to the particle surface. Surface damage correlations for impact crater diameter and penetration depth are presented for fused-silica, AVCOAT, Shuttle tiles, cork, and Norcoat Liège. The cork and Norcoat Liège correlations are new and were developed in this study. The modeling equations presented in this paper are applied to compute the heatshield erosion due to dust particle impacts on the ExoMars Schiaparelli entry capsule during dust storm conditions.

Palmer, Grant↗
NASA NTRS2020

Modeling Heatshield Erosion Due to Dust Particle Impacts for Martian Entries

Heatshield design for spacecraft entering the atmosphere of Mars may be affected by the presence of atmospheric dust. Particle impacts with sufficient kinetic energy can cause spallation damage to the heatshield that must be estimated. The dust environment in terms of particle size distribution and number density can be inferred from ground-based or atmospheric observations at Mars. Using a Lagrangian approach, the particle trajectories through the shock layer can be computed using a set of coupled ordinary differential equations. The dust particles are small enough that non-continuum effects must be accounted for when computing the drag coefficient and heat transfer to the particle surface. Surface damage correlations for impact crater diameter and penetration depth are presented for fused-silica, AVCOAT, Shuttle tiles, cork, and Norcoat Liège. The cork and Norcoat Liège correlations are new and were developed in this study. The modeling equations presented in this paper are applied to compute the heatshield erosion due to dust particle impacts on the ExoMars Schiaparelli entry capsule during dust storm conditions.

Palmer, Grant↗
DOE OSTI2022

DIGS: deep inference of galaxy spectra with neural posterior estimation

Abstract With the advent of billion-galaxy surveys with complex data, the need of the hour is to efficiently model galaxy spectral energy distributions (SEDs) with robust uncertainty quantification. The combination of simulation-based inference (SBI) and amortized neural posterior estimation (NPE) has been successfully used to analyse simulated and real galaxy photometry both precisely and efficiently. In this work, we utilise this combination and build on existing literature to analyse simulated noisy galaxy spectra. Here, we demonstrate a proof-of-concept study of spectra that is (a) an efficient analysis of galaxy SEDs and inference of galaxy parameters with physically interpretable uncertainties; and (b) amortized calculations of posterior distributions of said galaxy parameters at the modest cost of a few galaxy fits with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We utilise the SED generator and inference framework Prospector to generate simulated spectra, and train a dataset of 2 × 10 6 spectra (corresponding to a five-parameter SED model) with NPE. We show that SBI—with its combination of fast and amortized posterior estimations—is capable of inferring accurate galaxy stellar masses and metallicities. Our uncertainty constraints are comparable to or moderately weaker than traditional inverse-modelling with Bayesian MCMC methods (e.g. 0.17 and 0.26 dex in stellar mass and metallicity for a given galaxy, respectively). We also find that our inference framework conducts rapid SED inference (0.9–1.2 × 10 5 galaxy spectra via SBI/NPE at the cost of 1 MCMC-based fit). With this work, we set the stage for further work that focuses of SED fitting of galaxy spectra with SBI, in the era of JWST galaxy survey programs and the wide-field Roman Space Telescope spectroscopic surveys.

spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian reconstruction of anisotropic flow fluctuations at fixed impact parameter

The cumulants of the distribution of anisotropic flow are measured accurately in Pb+Pb collisions at the LHC as a function of centrality classifiers (charged multiplicity and/or transverse energy). Using Bayesian inference, we reconstruct from these measurements the probability distribution of anisotropic flow in the ``theorists' frame'' where the impact parameter has a fixed magnitude and orientation, up to ∼70% centrality. The variation of flow fluctuations with impact parameter displays direct evidence of viscous damping, which is larger for higher Fourier harmonics, in line with expectations from hydrodynamics. We use intensive measures of non-Gaussian flow fluctuations, which have reduced dependence on centrality. Here, we infer from ATLAS data the magnitude of these intensive non-Gaussianities in each Fourier harmonic. They provide data-driven estimates of response coefficients to initial anisotropies, without resorting to any specific microscopic model of initial conditions. These estimates agree with viscous hydrodynamic calculations.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2023

How deep should we go to understand roots at the top of the world?

Harsh environmental conditions and the short summers of northern, high-latitude biomes impose unique constraints on the plants that live in the arctic tundra and the boreal forest. To escape the harsh aboveground environment, plants in these habitats often allocate a large portion of their biomass belowground to facilitate nutrient acquisition. In turn, the proximity of living plant roots to vast stores of sequestered soil carbon in these biomes means that shifts in rooting depth distribution and the size of the root–soil interface could significantly contribute to ongoing climate change. Indeed, plant ‘priming’ of rhizosphere decomposition via root exudation, particularly from shallowly distributed roots, can lead to losses of carbon from tundra soils. While we have a hard-won understanding of the distribution of plant communities across the arctic tundra and the boreal forest from direct field observations scaled to the landscape level using climate-informed mapping techniques (i.e. the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map (CAVM); Walker et al. , 2005), these vegetation maps are only the tip of the iceberg (Iversen et al. , 2015). Root form and function remain hidden beneath the land surface. In an article recently published in New Phytologist , Blume-Werry et al. (2023, 10.1111/nph.18998) asked whether rooting depth distribution, and ensuing carbon emissions, could be inferred from commonly used vegetation mapping classifications across the pan-Arctic. An important question to guide our understanding, mapping, and prediction of belowground characteristics and ecosystem feedbacks at the top of the world. Unfortunately, they found that the answer was ‘not quite’. While rooting depth distribution varied demonstrably, in turn causing substantial changes in modeled carbon emissions via rhizosphere ‘priming’, variation across rooting depth profiles did not correspond with vegetation mapping classes. If we are unable to predict belowground rooting depth distributions across large spatial scales by leveraging aboveground vegetation community distributions, how then should belowground researchers proceed?

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Inference of the Symmetry Energy of Superdense Neutron-rich Matter from Future Radius Measurements of Massive Neutron Stars

In this work, using as references the posterior probability distribution functions of the equation of state (EOS) parameters inferred from the radii of canonical neutron stars (NSs) reported by the LIGO/VIRGO and NICER Collaborations based on their observations of GW170817 and PSR J0030+0451, we investigate how future radius measurements of more massive NSs will improve our current knowledge about the EOS of superdense neutron-rich nuclear matter, especially its symmetry energy term. Within the Bayesian statistical approach using an explicitly isospin-dependent parametric EOS for the core of NSs, we infer the EOS parameters of superdense neutron-rich nuclear matter from three sets of imagined mass–radius correlation data representing typical predictions by various nuclear many-body theories, that is, the radius stays the same, decreases, or increases with increasing NS mass within ±15% between 1.4 and 2.0 M$_\odot$. The corresponding NS average density increases quickly or slowly or slightly decreases as the NS mass increases from 1.4 to 2.0 M$_\odot$. While the EOSs of symmetric nuclear matter (SNM) inferred from the three data sets are approximately the same, the corresponding symmetry energies above about twice the saturation density of nuclear matter are very different, indicating that the radii of massive NSs carry important information about the high-density behavior of nuclear symmetry energy with little influence from the remaining uncertainties of the SNM EOS at suprasaturation densities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1991

Inferring the abundances of ClO and HO2 from Spacelab 3 atmospheric trace molecule spectroscopy observations

The vertical distributions of the important highly reactive stratospheric species, ClO and HO2, have been inferred from Spacelab 3 (May 1985) Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) measurements of more detectable radical and reservoir species. A simple steady state algebraic expression for ClO, utilizing the observed ClONO2/NO2 abundance ratio, approximates the ClO results of a time-dependent photochemical model at sunset (30 deg N). Balloon measurements of ClO and comparisons of time-dependent photochemical model calculations of ClONO2 and HCl with the corresponding ATMOS profiles suggest that the actual ClO values are less than the time-dependent model profiles for ClO at sunset and sunrise (47 deg S). Errors in the current model simulation of the partitioning among the principal free chlorine species (HCl, ClONO2, and ClO) are indicated. The accuracy of the time-dependent model calculations of HO2 is suggested by the agreement between model results and ATMOS observations for HO2NO2 and balloon measurements of HO2. This confirms for the first time the procedure suggested previously by a number of authors of deriving HO(x) abundances from observed fields of O3 and H2O.

Allen, Mark↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geographic patterns of genomic diversity and structure in the C4 grass Panicum hallii across its natural distribution

Abstract Geographic patterns of within-species genomic diversity are shaped by evolutionary processes, life history and historical and contemporary factors. New genomic approaches can be used to infer the influence of such factors on the current distribution of infraspecific lineages. In this study, we evaluated the genomic and morphological diversity as well as the genetic structure of the C4 grass Panicum hallii across its complex natural distribution in North America. We sampled extensively across the natural range of P. hallii in Mexico and the USA to generate double-digestion restriction-associated DNA (ddRAD) sequence data for 423 individuals from 118 localities. We used these individuals to study the divergence between the two varieties of P. hallii, P. hallii var. filipes and P. hallii var. hallii as well as the genetic diversity and structure within these groups. We also examined the possibility of admixture in the geographically sympatric zone shared by both varieties, and assessed distribution shifts related with past climatic fluctuations. There is strong genetic and morphological divergence between the varieties and consistent genetic structure defining seven genetic clusters that follow major ecoregions across the range. South Texas constitutes a hotspot of genetic diversity with the co-occurrence of all genetic clusters and admixture between the two varieties. It is likely a recolonization and convergence point of populations that previously diverged in isolation during fragmentation events following glaciation periods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1973

Inference of total ozone from photometric measurements of sky radiation.

Ground-based photometric measurements of spectral sky radiation have been made using a simple filter instrument. Sky radiation intensities measured in the solar vertical at 3200 and 3600 A are compared to infer total ozone. A model of a multiple scattering Rayleigh atmosphere serves as a primary reduction parameter. Spectral measurements of all-sky radiance distribution are used to study the effects of haze and clouds on the inference of total ozone. The brightness distribution of clear and overcast sky in ultraviolet is also described.

Ghazi, A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hierarchical Inference with Bayesian Neural Networks: An Application to Strong Gravitational Lensing

In the past few years, approximate Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have demonstrated the ability to produce statistically consistent posteriors on a wide range of inference problems at unprecedented speed and scale. However, any disconnect between training sets and the distribution of real-world objects can introduce bias when BNNs are applied to data. This is a common challenge in astrophysics and cosmology, where the unknown distribution of objects in our universe is often the science goal. In this work, we incorporate BNNs with flexible posterior parameterizations into a hierarchical inference framework that allows for the reconstruction of population hyperparameters and removes the bias introduced by the training distribution. We focus on the challenge of producing posterior PDFs for strong gravitational lens mass model parameters given Hubble Space Telescope–quality single-filter, lens-subtracted, synthetic imaging data. We show that the posterior PDFs are sufficiently accurate (statistically consistent with the truth) across a wide variety of power-law elliptical lens mass distributions. We then apply our approach to test data sets whose lens parameters are drawn from distributions that are drastically different from the training set. We show that our hierarchical inference framework mitigates the bias introduced by an unrepresentative training set's interim prior. Simultaneously, we can precisely reconstruct the population hyperparameters governing our test distributions. Our full pipeline, from training to hierarchical inference on thousands of lenses, can be run in a day. The framework presented here will allow us to efficiently exploit the full constraining power of future ground- and space-based surveys (https://github.com/swagnercarena/ovejero).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Speed Distributions

Dark matter direct detection experiments require information about the local dark matter speed distribution to produce constraints on dark matter candidates, or infer their properties in the event of a discovery. In this paper, we analyze how the uncertainty in the dark matter speed distribution near the Sun is affected by baryonic feedback, halo-to-halo variance, and halo mass. To do so, we harness the statistical power of the new DREAMS cold dark matter simulation suite, which is comprised of 1024 zoom-in Milky Way–mass halos with varied initial conditions as well as cosmological and astrophysical parameters. Applying a normalizing flows emulator to these simulations, we find that the uncertainty in the local dark matter speed distribution is dominated by halo-to-halo variance and, to a lesser extent, uncertainty in host halo mass. Uncertainties in supernova and black hole feedback (from the IllustrisTNG model in this case) are negligible in comparison. Using the DREAMS suite, we present a state-of-the-art prediction for the dark matter speed distribution in the Milky Way. Although the standard halo model is contained within the uncertainty of this prediction, individual galaxies may have distributions that differ from it. Lastly, we apply our DREAMS results to the XENON1T experiment and demonstrate that the astrophysical uncertainties are comparable to the experimental ones, solidifying previous results in the literature obtained with a smaller sample of simulated Milky Way–mass halos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Revealing the Milky Way’s most recent major merger with a Gaia EDR3 catalogue of machine-learned line-of-sight velocities

Machine learning can play a powerful role in inferring missing line-of-sight velocities from astrometry in surveys such as Gaia. In this paper, we apply a neural network to Gaia Early Data Release 3 (EDR3) and obtain line-of-sight velocities and associated uncertainties for ~92 million stars. The network, which takes as input a star’s parallax, angular coordinates, and proper motions, is trained and validated on ~6.4 million stars in Gaia with complete phase-space information. The network’s uncertainty on its velocity prediction is a key aspect of its design; by properly convolving these uncertainties with the inferred velocities, we obtain accurate stellar kinematic distributions. As a first science application, we use the new network-completed catalogue to identify candidate stars that belong to the Milky Way’s most recent major merger, Gaia-Sausage-Enceladus (GSE). We present the kinematic, energy, angular momentum, and spatial distributions of the ~450 000 GSE candidates in this sample, and also study the chemical abundances of those with cross matches to GALAH and APOGEE. Furthermore, the network’s predictive power will only continue to improve with future Gaia data releases as the training set of stars with complete phase-space information grows. This work provides a first demonstration of how to use machine learning to exploit high-dimensional correlations on data to infer line-of-sight velocities, and offers a template for how to train, validate, and apply such a neural network when complete observational data is not available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nonparametric Inference for the Reproductive Rate in Generalized Compartmental Models

We develop a tractable nonparametric model for the time-varying reproductive rate of infectious diseases that combines the structure of a deterministic compartmental model and a stochastic model for incidence data. We use Bayesian inference to estimate, with uncertainty, the reproductive rate of the Coronavirus 2019 outbreak in the U.S. states of California, Florida, Michigan, New Mexico, New York, and Texas from January 2020 to March 2022. Employing the inferred reproductive rates, we estimate the posterior distribution of the time-varying reproduction numbers for each state. Compering the time-varying reproduction numbers across the states, we identify some epidemic waves, potentially driven from changes in human behavior and virus mutations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1990

A knowledge base architecture for distributed knowledge agents

A tuple space based object oriented model for knowledge base representation and interpretation is presented. An architecture for managing distributed knowledge agents is then implemented within the model. The general model is based upon a database implementation of a tuple space. Objects are then defined as an additional layer upon the database. The tuple space may or may not be distributed depending upon the database implementation. A language for representing knowledge and inference strategy is defined whose implementation takes advantage of the tuple space. The general model may then be instantiated in many different forms, each of which may be a distinct knowledge agent. Knowledge agents may communicate using tuple space mechanisms as in the LINDA model as well as using more well known message passing mechanisms. An implementation of the model is presented describing strategies used to keep inference tractable without giving up expressivity. An example applied to a power management and distribution network for Space Station Freedom is given.

Riedesel, Joel↗