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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Interferometric Meteor Head Echo Observations using the Southern Argentina Agile Meteor Radar (SAAMER)

A radar meteor echo is the radar scattering signature from the free-electrons in a plasma trail generated by entry of extraterrestrial particles into the atmosphere. Three categories of scattering mechanisms exist: specular, nonspecular trails, and head-echoes. Generally, there are two types of radars utilized to detect meteors. Traditional VHF meteor radars (often called all-sky1radars) primarily detect the specular reflection of meteor trails traveling perpendicular to the line of sight of the scattering trail, while High Power and Large Aperture (HPLA) radars efficiently detect meteor head-echoes and, in some cases, non-specular trails. The fact that head-echo measurements can be performed only with HPLA radars limits these studies in several ways. HPLA radars are very sensitive instruments constraining the studies to the lower masses, and these observations cannot be performed continuously because they take place at national observatories with limited allocated observing time. These drawbacks can be addressed by developing head echo observing techniques with modified all-sky meteor radars. In addition, the fact that the simultaneous detection of all different scattering mechanisms can be made with the same instrument, rather than requiring assorted different classes of radars, can help clarify observed differences between the different methodologies. In this study, we demonstrate that such concurrent observations are now possible, enabled by the enhanced design of the Southern Argentina Agile Meteor Radar (SAAMER) deployed at the Estacion Astronomica Rio Grande (EARG) in Tierra del Fuego, Argentina. The results presented here are derived from observations performed over a period of 12 days in August 2011, and include meteoroid dynamical parameter distributions, radiants and estimated masses. Overall, the SAAMER's head echo detections appear to be produced by larger particles than those which have been studied thus far using this technique.

SPECULAR↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Review of Recent Updates of Sea-Level Projections at Global and Regional Scales

Sea-level change (SLC) is a much-studied topic in the area of climate research, integrating a range of climate science disciplines, and is expected to impact coastal communities around the world. As a result, this field is rapidly moving, and the knowledge and understanding of processes contributing to SLC is increasing. Here, we discuss noteworthy recent developments in the projection of SLC contributions and in the global mean and regional sea-level projections. For the Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to SLC, earlier estimates have been confirmed in recent research, but part of the source of this contribution has shifted from dynamics to surface melting. New insights into dynamic discharge processes and the onset of marine ice sheet instability increase the projected range for the Antarctic contribution by the end of the century. The contribution from both ice sheets is projected to increase further in the coming centuries to millennia. Recent updates of the global glacier outline database and new global glacier models have led to slightly lower projections for the glacier contribution to SLC (7-17 cm by 2100), but still project the glaciers to be an important contribution. For global mean sea-level projections, the focus has shifted to better estimating the uncertainty distributions of the projection time series, which may not necessarily follow a normal distribution. Instead, recent studies use skewed distributions with longer tails to higher uncertainties. Regional projections have been used to study regional uncertainty distributions, and regional projections are increasingly being applied to specific regions, countries, and coastal areas.

glaciers↗
NASA NTRS2017

Modeling Meteor Flares for Spacecraft Safety

NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) is tasked with assisting spacecraft operators and engineers in quantifying the threat the meteoroid environment poses to their individual missions. A more complete understanding of the meteoroid environment for this application requires extensive observations. One manner by which the MEO observes meteors is with dedicated video camera systems that operate nightly. Connecting the observational data from these video cameras to the relevant physical properties of the ablating meteoroids, however, is subject to sizable observational and theoretical uncertainties. Arguably the most troublesome theoretical uncertainty in ablation is a model for the structure of meteoroids, as observations clearly show behaviors wholly inconsistent with meteoroids being homogeneous spheres. Further complicating the interpretation of the observations in the context of spacecraft risk is the ubiquitous process of fragmentation and the flares it can produce, which greatly muddles any attempts to estimating initial meteoroid masses. In this talk a method of estimating the mass distribution of fragments in flaring meteors using high resolution video observations will be dis- cussed. Such measurements provide an important step in better understanding of the structure and fragmentation process of the parent meteoroids producing these flares, which in turn may lead to better constraints on meteoroid masses and reduced uncertainties in spacecraft risk.

Ehlert, Steven↗
NASA NTRS2017

Early Results from the Advanced Radiation Protection Thick GCR Shielding Project

The Advanced Radiation Protection Thick Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) Shielding Project leverages experimental and modeling approaches to validate a predicted minimum in the radiation exposure versus shielding depth curve. Preliminary results of space radiation models indicate that a minimum in the dose equivalent versus aluminum shielding thickness may exist in the 20-30 g/cm2 region. For greater shield thickness, dose equivalent increases due to secondary neutron and light particle production. This result goes against the long held belief in the space radiation shielding community that increasing shielding thickness will decrease risk to crew health. A comprehensive modeling effort was undertaken to verify the preliminary modeling results using multiple Monte Carlo and deterministic space radiation transport codes. These results verified the preliminary findings of a minimum and helped drive the design of the experimental component of the project. In first-of-their-kind experiments performed at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory, neutrons and light ions were measured between large thicknesses of aluminum shielding. Both an upstream and a downstream shield were incorporated into the experiment to represent the radiation environment inside a spacecraft. These measurements are used to validate the Monte Carlo codes and derive uncertainty distributions for exposure estimates behind thick shielding similar to that provided by spacecraft on a Mars mission. Preliminary results for all aspects of the project will be presented.

Norman, Ryan B.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Random Variables with Moment-Matching Staircase Density Functions

This paper proposes a family of random variables for uncertainty modeling. The variables of interest have a bounded support set, and prescribed values for the first four moments. We present the feasibility conditions for the existence of any of such variables, and propose a class of variables that conforms to such constraints. This class is called staircase because the density of its members is a piecewise constant function. Convex optimization is used to calculate their distributions according to several optimality criteria, including maximal entropy and maximal log-likelihood. The flexibility and efficiency of staircases enable modeling phenomena having a possibly skewed and/or multimodal response at a low computational cost. Furthermore, we provide a means to account for the uncertainty in the distribution caused by estimating staircases from data. These ideas are illustrated by generating empirical staircase predictor models. We consider the case in which the predictor matches the sample moments exactly (a setting applicable to large datasets), as well as the case in which the predictor accounts for the sampling error in such moments (a setting applicable to sparse datasets). A predictor model for the dynamics of an aeroelastic airfoil subject to flutter instability is used as an example. The resulting predictor not only describes the system's response accurately, but also enables carrying out a risk analysis for safe flight.

Luis G. Crespo↗
NASA NTRS2019

Parameterization-Induced Uncertainties and Impacts of Crop Management Harmonization in a Global Gridded Crop Model Ensemble

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) combine agronomic or plant growth models with gridded spatial input data to estimate spatially explicit crop yields and agricultural externalities at the global scale. Differences in GGCM outputs arise from the use of different biophysical models, setups, and input data. GGCM ensembles are frequently employed to bracket uncertainties in impact studies without investigating the causes of divergence in outputs. This study explores differences in maize yield estimates from five GGCMs based on the public domain field-scale model Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) that participate in the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison initiative. Albeit using the same crop model, the GGCMs differ in model version, input data, management assumptions, parameterization, and selection of subroutines affecting crop yield estimates via cultivar distributions, soil attributes, and hydrology among others. The analyses reveal inter-annual yield variability and absolute yield levels in the EPIC-based GGCMs to be highly sensitive to soil parameterization and crop management. All GGCMs show an intermediate performance in reproducing reported yields with a higher skill if a static soil profile is assumed or sufficient plant nutrients are supplied. An in-depth comparison of setup domains for two EPIC-based GGCMs shows that GGCM performance and plant stress responses depend substantially on soil parameters and soil process parameterization, i.e. hydrology and nutrient turnover, indicating that these often neglected domains deserve more scrutiny. For agricultural impact assessments, employing a GGCM ensemble with its widely varying assumptions in setups appears the best solution for coping with uncertainties from lack of comprehensive global data on crop management, cultivar distributions and coefficients for agro-environmental processes. However, the underlying assumptions require systematic specifications to cover representative agricultural systems and environmental conditions. Furthermore, the interlinkage of parameter sensitivity from various domains such as soil parameters, nutrient turnover coefficients, and cultivar specifications highlights that global sensitivity analyses and calibration need to be performed in an integrated manner to avoid bias resulting from disregarded core model domains. Finally, relating evaluations of the EPIC-based GGCMs to a wider ensemble based on individual core models shows that structural differences outweigh in general differences in configurations of GGCMs based on the same model, and that the ensemble mean gains higher skill from the inclusion of structurally different GGCMs. Although the members of the wider ensemble herein do not consider crop-soil-management interactions, their sensitivity to nutrient supply indicates that findings for the EPIC-based sub-ensemble will likely become relevant for other GGCMs with the progressing inclusion of such processes.

Folberth, Christian↗
NASA NTRS2017

Long-term Neutron Background Environment Measured by the Dynamic Albedo of Neutrons (DAN) Instrument onboard Mars Science Laboratory (MSL)

The Dynamic Albedo of Neutrons (DAN) instrument onboard Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) consists of a pulsed neutron generator (PNG) and the neutron detector/electronics (DE) module. There are two 3He-proportional counters used in the DE module. One counter is surrounded with a Cd shell enclosure and measures epi-thermal neutrons with >0.4 eV. The second detector does not have a Cd shell enclosure and measures both thermal and epi-thermal neutrons. The main scientific objectives of DAN are two-fold: (1) the primary objective is to measure the bulk hydrogen abundance (in forms of water or hydrated minerals) of the sub-surface and (2) the secondary objective is to measure the background neutron environment at the surface. DAN achieves the first objective by using a pulsed 14 MeV neutron source (ACTIVE mode). Emitted neutrons undergo a series of nuclear interactions with the regolith and lose energy. The DAN DE module then measures the time profile of the neutrons returned from the regolith. Even a small amount of hydrogen, as low as 0.1 weight % in the regolith, can effectively moderate the high energy neutrons [Mitrofanov, et al., ]. The less-moderated (or epi-thermal) neutrons arrive at the detector earlier than the more-moderated (or thermal) neutrons. The shape and magnitude of neutron time profile curves after pulses can be used to estimate the depth distribution of the hydrogen content. When no neutron pulse is used (PASSIVE mode) DAN measures the neutron background environment at the Mars surface. There are two sources of the background neutrons which DAN would measure: one is secondary neutrons generated by galactic cosmic ray (GCR) interactions with atmospheric and surface materials and the other is neutrons from the Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG) onboard MSL as a power source. The passive mode data for the first 1300 sols of the MSL mission are presented in this paper. A summary of the DAN surface operation is described by [Mitrofanov et al., 2012; Jun et al., 2013.

Tate, C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Nanoflare Heating of an X-Ray Bright Point

Nanoflares are thought to be one of the prime candidates that can keep the solar corona to its multimillion kelvin temperature. Individual nanoflares are difficult to detect with the present generation instruments, however their presence can be inferred by comparing the nanoflare heated simulated plasma emissions with the observed emission. Here, we present a simulation of emission from an X-ray Bright Point (XBP) that was observed by the Marshall Grazing Incidence X-ray Spectrometer (MaGIXS), along with concurrent observations from SDO/AIA and Hinode/XRT. We use EBTEL hydrodynamic code to simulate the XBP loops. Length and magnetic field strength of these loops are derived from the potential field extrapolation of the observed photospheric magnetogram by HMI/SDO. Each loop is assumed to be heated by random nanoflares, whose magnitude and frequency are determined by the looplength and magnetic field strength. The simulated outputs are used to predict the intensity of spectrally pure map of Fe-18, Fe-17, Ne-9 ,O-8, O-9, Ne-9 etc, which are then compared with the derived intensity from MaGIXS observation. Further we have predicted the intensity map as observed by AIA and XRT and compared them with the observation. We also estimated the temperature distribution of the XBP from the simulation and found a good agreement with the derived distribution from MaGIXS observation.

coronal heating↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Calibration of Expensive Models using Efficiently Trained Surrogates

Calibration of computational models in the presence of uncertainty is often cast as a Bayesian inference problem and solved via sampling methods, e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo. When the computational model is expensive, this task becomes intractable due to the large number of samples required to accurately estimate the posterior distribution of the calibration parameters. A popular solution to this problem is to use machine learning to develop a faster-to-evaluate, lower-fidelity substitute for the original model to serve as a surrogate while solving the inference problem. Although considered an offline cost, generating training data to construct this surrogate model can still be an expensive task in practice. An active learning algorithm is presented that focuses training on improving surrogate accuracy specifically in and around the bulk of the posterior distribution, as this is where the model is exercised during calibration. Candidate samples are drawn from families of distributions related to an approximation of the posterior. The sample maximizing predictive variance is then selected for evaluation by the original computational model, yielding a label for the training point. Iterating this approach increases efficiency relative to space filling designs (e.g., Latin hypercube sampling) by avoiding low probability points. Practical considerations are discussed, including the benefits of using a sequential Monte Carlo sampling approach, convergence heuristics, and the importance of both exploration and exploitation given that the true posterior is unknown a priori.

uncertainty quantification↗
NASA NTRS1993

Timoshenko beam modeling for parameter estimation of NASA Mini-Mast truss

In this paper a distributed parameter model for the estimation of modal characteristics of NASA Mini-Mast truss is proposed. A closed-form solution of the Timoshenko beam equation, for a uniform cantilevered beam with two concentrated masses, is derived so that the procedure and the computational effort for the estimation of modal characteristics are improved. A maximum likelihood estimator for the Timoshenko beam model is also developed. The resulting estimates from test data by using Timoshenko beam model are found to be comparable to those derived from other approaches.

Shen, Ji Y.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Small impact craters in the lunar regolith - Their morphologies, relative ages, and rates of formation

The size frequency distributions, relative ages, and absolute age determination of lunar impact craters ranging in diameter from 1 to 100 m are discussed in relation to present-day and past impact rates. The size frequency distributions of craters produced by impacts on the lunar surface and of craters remaining after degradation with time and later impacts are examined, together with the steady state frequency curves for various crater morphologies. Relations between the relative ages of craters, their morphologies and their diameters are discussed, and the calibration of this kind of relationship with absolute crater ages by the location of individual craters with known absolute ages, diameters and frequency distribution statistics is considered. Estimates of present and past cratering rates based on crater size-frequency distributions are presented which suggest that the rate of impacting objects producing small lunar craters could have been constant over the last 100 million years.

Moore, H. J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying Uncertainty in Particle Size Distribution Parameters Inferred from SAGE III/ISS Extinction Spectra

Stratospheric aerosols play key roles in the chemistry and radiation balance of the atmosphere and are a key input parameter for global chemistry and climate models. The degree to which aerosols impact chemistry and radiation balance depends primarily on their microphysical properties such as particle size distribution (PSD). The PSD is a mathematical description of the relative abundance of different sized particles within a sampling volume. If the PSD is accurately known then other key modeling parameters (e.g., surface area density) can be derived. Occultation observations from orbital instruments such as SAGE III/ISS have been used to infer these PSD parameters by inverting the extinction coefficient spectra. However, past efforts failed to address two key issues with this methodology: 1. The measurement uncertainty was not accounted for; 2. They assumed the PSDs to be single-mode only, while “real-world” PSDs are predominantly bi-modal. Accounting for both issues in the retrieval will yield an expanded solution space to the inferred PSD parameters; the question is “by how much?” To address this knowledge gap, we propose to carry out a series of simulations and, for every valid SAGE III/ISS data point, determine the range of PSD parameters that yield extinction spectra that are indistinguishable from the SAGE III/ISS data, within the limits of the reported uncertainty. Further, we will expand the solution space, for the first time, to include bimodal distributions. The results of this work will advance Earth system modeling/prediction capability through identifying the uncertainty of PSD parameter estimates using SAGE III/ISS data. The key benefits of this study over previous studies are twofold: 1. we will provide PSD estimates that include bimodal distributions in the solution space, 2. we will provide an uncertainty estimate for these parameters. The results of this study may be used directly in current and future climate and chemistry models.

SAGE III/ISS↗
NASA NTRS1991

Fusion techniques using distributed Kalman filtering for detecting changes in systems

A comparison is made of the performances of two detection strategies that are based on different data fusion techniques. The strategies detect changes in a linear system. One detection strategy involves combining the estimates and error covariance matrices of distributed Kalman filters, generating a residual from the used estimates, comparing this residual to a threshold, and making a decision. The other detection strategy involves a distributed decision process in which estimates from distributed Kalman filters are used to generate distributed residuals which are compared locally to a threshold. Local decisions are made and these decisions are then fused into a global decision. The performances of each of these detection schemes are compared, and it is concluded that better performance is achieved when local decisions are made and then fused into a global decision.

Belcastro, Celeste M.↗
NASA NTRS1976

LACIE performance predictor final operational capability program description, volume 3

The requirements and processing logic for the LACIE Error Model program (LEM) are described. This program is an integral part of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) system. LEM is that portion of the LPP (LACIE Performance Predictor) which simulates the sample segment classification, strata yield estimation, and production aggregation. LEM controls repetitive Monte Carlo trials based on input error distributions to obtain statistical estimates of the wheat area, yield, and production at different levels of aggregation. LEM interfaces with the rest of the LPP through a set of data files.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1979

The terrestrial cratering record. II - The crater production rate

The terrestrial crater production rate is estimated from a compilation of the locations and ages of proven and probable terrestrial impact craters and compared with that calculated from astronomical observations and for other planets. The estimated size-frequency distribution of craters greater than 20 km in diameter formed during the Phanerozoic, a -2 power law, is similar to the distributions of lunar and Martian craters. The North American and East European cratons are estimated to have cratering rates of craters greater than 20 km of 0.36 x 10 to the -14/sq km yr and 0.33 x 10 to the -14/sq km yr, respectively, in good agreement with previous estimates and observations of Apollo bodies. Comparisons with the lunar rate indicate that the lunar and terrestrial rates overlap if the cratering flux had been constant over the last 3.4 billion years, however if a constant rate was not reached until 3.0 to 2.5 billion years ago, the lunar rate would have been half that of the terrestrial rate.

Grieve, R. A. F.↗
NASA NTRS1984

A validation methodology for fault-tolerant clock synchronization

A validation method for the synchronization subsystem of a fault-tolerant computer system is presented. The high reliability requirement of flight crucial systems precludes the use of most traditional validation methods. The method presented utilizes formal design proof to uncover design and coding errors and experimentation to validate the assumptions of the design proof. The experimental method is described and illustrated by validating an experimental implementation of the Software Implemented Fault Tolerance (SIFT) clock synchronization algorithm. The design proof of the algorithm defines the maximum skew between any two nonfaulty clocks in the system in terms of theoretical upper bounds on certain system parameters. The quantile to which each parameter must be estimated is determined by a combinatorial analysis of the system reliability. The parameters are measured by direct and indirect means, and upper bounds are estimated. A nonparametric method based on an asymptotic property of the tail of a distribution is used to estimate the upper bound of a critical system parameter. Although the proof process is very costly, it is extremely valuable when validating the crucial synchronization subsystem.

Johnson, S. C.↗
NASA NTRS1992

On adaptive weighted polynomial preconditioning for Hermitian positive definite matrices

The conjugate gradient algorithm for solving Hermitian positive definite linear systems is usually combined with preconditioning in order to speed up convergence. In recent years, there has been a revival of polynomial preconditioning, motivated by the attractive features of the method on modern architectures. Standard techniques for choosing the preconditioning polynomial are based only on bounds for the extreme eigenvalues. Here a different approach is proposed, which aims at adapting the preconditioner to the eigenvalue distribution of the coefficient matrix. The technique is based on the observation that good estimates for the eigenvalue distribution can be derived after only a few steps of the Lanczos process. This information is then used to construct a weight function for a suitable Chebyshev approximation problem. The solution of this problem yields the polynomial preconditioner. In particular, we investigate the use of Bernstein-Szego weights.

Fischer, Bernd↗
NASA NTRS1987

Simulation of radar reflectivity and surface measurements of rainfall

Raindrop size distributions (RSDs) are often estimated using surface raindrop sampling devices (e.g., disdrometers) or optical array (2D-PMS) probes. A number of authors have used these measured distributions to compute certain higher-order RSD moments that correspond to radar reflectivity, attenuation, optical extinction, etc. Scatter plots of these RSD moments versus disdrometer-measured rainrates are then used to deduce physical relationships between radar reflectivity, attenuation, etc., which are measured by independent instruments (e.g., radar), and rainrate. In this paper RSDs of the gamma form as well as radar reflectivity (via time series simulation) are simulated to study the correlation structure of radar estimates versus rainrate as opposed to RSD moment estimates versus rainrate. The parameters N0, D0 and m of a gamma distribution are varied over the range normally found in rainfall, as well as varying the device sampling volume. The simulations are used to explain some possible features related to discrepancies which can arise when radar rainfall measurements are compared with surface or aircraft-based sampling devices.

Chandrasekar, V.↗