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DOE OSTI2025

First measurement of symmetric cumulants of hexagonal flow harmonics in Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV

Correlations between event-by-event fluctuations of anisotropic flow harmonics are measured in Pb-Pb collisions at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of 5.02 TeV, as recorded by the ALICE detector at the LHC. This study presents correlations up to the hexagonal flow harmonic 𝑣 6 , which was measured for the first time. The magnitudes of these higher-order correlations are found to vary as a function of collision centrality and harmonic order. These measurements are compared to viscous hydrodynamic model calculations with EKRT initial conditions and to the iEBE-VISHNU model with T R ⁢ENTo initial conditions. The observed discrepancies between the data and the model calculations vary depending on the harmonic combinations. Due to the sensitivity of model parameters estimated with Bayesian analyses to these higher-order observables, the results presented in this work provide new and independent constraints on the initial conditions and transport properties in theoretical models used to describe the system created in heavy-ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Towards Realistic Models of Heterogeneous Catalysis: Simulations of Oxidation Catalysis from First Principles

Among the most significant developments in heterogeneous catalysis in the last 20 years is the emergence of microkinetic models, often parameterized from density functional theory (DFT) calculations, used to quantify observed catalyst performance and to guide the discovery of new catalytic materials. While DFT directly reports binding energies and elementary step activation energies, the free energies that enter into microkinetic models must be computed from additional approximations. Frequently these free energy approximations assume ideal behavior—that adsorbates do not interact with one another, or that adsorbates are immobile or vibrate harmonically about a binding site. These assumptions can and do have an impact on predicted catalyst performance and potentially even on predicted trends. Our work relates to three categories of non-idealities, explored in the context of nitrogen oxidation and reduction catalysis on metal surfaces. One component relates to adsorbate translational free energy, the contribution least well described by conventional models, in which we develop modeling approaches that improve accuracy with limited increase in computational expense. A second component relates adsorbate-adsorbate interactions, in which we develop benchmark on-lattice interaction models and compare kinetic predictions with conventional mean-field models, in an effort to develop more robust coverage-dependent mean field modeling approaches. The last relates the most fundamental assumption of all—that of energy equipartition—in an effort to rationalize and guide plasma-enhanced catalysis.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Validation and Sensitivity Analysis of a 1-D Lake Model Across Global Lakes

Lakes have important influence on weather and climate from local to global scales. However, their prediction using numerical models is notoriously difficult because lakes are highly heterogeneous across the globe, but observations are sparse. In this study, we assessed the performance of a 1-D lake model in simulating the thermal structures of 58 lakes with diverse morphometric and geographic characteristics by following the phase 2a local lake protocol of the Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a). After calibration, the root-mean-square errors (RMSE) were below 2 °C for 70% and 75% of the lakes for epilimnion and full-profile temperature simulations, with an average of 1.71 °C and 1.43 °C, respectively. The model performance mainly depended on lake shape rather than location, supporting the possibility of grouping model parameters by lake shape for global applications. Furthermore, through machine-learning based parameter sensitivity tests, we identified turbulent heat fluxes, wind-driven mixing and water transparency as the major processes controlling lake thermal and mixing regimes. Snow density was also important for modeling the ice phenology of high-latitude lakes. The relative influence of the key processes and the corresponding parameters mainly depended on lake latitude and depth. Turbulent heat fluxes showed a decreasing importance in affecting epilimnion temperature with increasing latitude. Wind-driven mixing was less influential to lake stratification for deeper lakes while the impact of light extinction, on the contrary, showed a positive correlation with depth. Our findings may guide improvements in 1-D lake model parameterizations to achieve higher fidelity in simulating global lake thermal dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Investigation of thermal hydraulic behavior of the High Temperature Test Facility's lower plenum via large eddy simulation

A high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis was performed using the Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model for the lower plenum of the High–Temperature Test Facility (HTTF), a ¼ scale test facility of the modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR) managed by Oregon State University. In most next–generation nuclear reactors, thermal stress due to thermal striping is one of the risks to be curiously considered. This is also true for HTGRs, especially since the exhaust helium gas temperature is high. In order to evaluate these risks and performance, organizations in the United States led by the OECD NEA are conducting a thermal hydraulic code benchmark for HTGR, and the test facility used for this benchmark is HTTF. HTTF can perform experiments in both normal and accident situations and provide high-quality experimental data. However, it is difficult to provide sufficient data for benchmarking through experiments, and there is a problem with the reliability of CFD analysis results based on Reynolds–averaged Navier–Stokes to analyze thermal hydraulic behavior without verification. To solve this problem, high-fidelity 3-D CFD analysis was performed using the LES model for HTTF. It was also verified that the LES model can properly simulate this jet mixing phenomenon via a unit cell test that provides experimental information. As a result of CFD analysis, the lower the dependency of the sub-grid scale model, the closer to the actual analysis result. In the case of unit cell test CFD analysis and HTTF CFD analysis, the volume-averaged sub-grid scale model dependency was calculated to be 13.0% and 9.16%, respectively. As a result of HTTF analysis, quantitative data of the fluid inside the HTTF lower plenum was provided in this paper. As a result of qualitative analysis, the temperature was highest at the center of the lower plenum, while the temperature fluctuation was highest near the edge of the lower plenum wall. The power spectral density of temperature was analyzed via fast Fourier transform (FFT) for specific points on the center and side of the lower plenum. FFT results did not reveal specific frequency-dominant temperature fluctuations in the center part. It was confirmed that the temperature power spectral density (PSD) at the top increased from the center to the wake. The vortex was visualized using the well-known scalar Q-criterion, and as a result, the closer to the outlet duct, the greater the influence of the mainstream, so that the inflow jet vortex was dissipated and mixed at the top of the lower plenum. Additionally, FFT analysis was performed on the support structure near the corner of the lower plenum with large temperature fluctuations, and as a result, it was confirmed that the temperature fluctuation of the flow did not have a significant effect near the corner wall. In addition, the vortices generated from the lower plenum to the outlet duct were identified in this paper. It is considered that the quantitative and qualitative results presented in this paper will serve as reference data for the benchmark.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bridging microscale to macroscale mechanical property measurements of FeCrAl alloys by crystal plasticity modeling

FeCrAl alloys are candidates for accident tolerant fuel cladding of light water reactors. In this work, a microstructure- and temperature-dependent crystal plasticity model is employed to bridge microscale to macroscale mechanical property measurements of FeCrAl alloys. With the visco-plastic self-consistent (VPSC) polycrystal plasticity framework, a mechanism-based single crystal plasticity (MSCP) model adopts the Arrhenius type rate equation to describe the dependence of the critical resolved shear stress for dislocation slips on their temperature-dependent intrinsic frictional resistance and the microstructure-dependent irradiation hardening. The intrinsic frictional resistance associated with {110}<111> and {112}<111> slip systems were measured by in-situ micromechanical testing on unirradiated/irradiated samples at 25-500 °C. The irradiation hardening is estimated by the Bacon-Kocks-Scattergood (BKS) model with density and size of radiation-induced defects measured from microstructural characterization. Several features associated with thermo-mechanical behavior of unirradiated/irradiated polycrystalline FeCrAl alloys are captured. High density of deformation-induced dislocations and radiation-induced defects results in obvious hardening at room temperature, which is weakened at high temperature, and facilitates damage evolution during deformation. Moreover, both high temperature and radiation-induced defects, which facilitate dislocation multiplication, trigger large hardening rate. Finally, the proposed method together with application of accelerator-based ion irradiation technique is a surrogate approach to simulate neutron damage, improving the efficiency associated with evaluation of mechanical properties of FeCrAl alloys exposed to temperature, stress and radiation conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Designing a repository in domal salt: The influence of design variants in different modelling environments

To understand the long-term environmental impact of disposing radioactive waste of in a deep geological repository and to optimise its design, performance assessments are used. In this study, four teams (COVRA, GRS, Quintessa, and DOE) modified the previously developed generic repository of DECOVALEX task F2 to identify commonalities and differences between the teams for specific changes in repository design. The teams tested six design modifications: (1) Replacing concrete abutments with run-of-mine salt; (2) Replacing the salt seal with a concrete abutment and using run-of-mine salt instead for the two concrete abutments in each drift seal; (3) Halving the size of the infrastructure area; (4) Using run-of-mine salt instead of gravel for backfilling the infrastructure area; (5) Disposal of spent nuclear fuel without the POLLUX-10 containers (6); Lower initial saturation of the spent nuclear fuel and vitrified waste disposal drifts. Despite different modelling strategies used, models agreed that a smaller infrastructure area has a limited effect on radionuclide transport. Responses to the absence of the two concrete abutments in each seal, the use of single large concrete abutments (200 m each), or the use of run-of-mine salt in the infrastructure area differ between teams due to differing modelling assumptions. Based on these results, the estimated efficacy of containment depends strongly on the model assumptions of each team. More specifically, it appears to depend on the compaction model used and therefore on the backfill material used in different areas of the repository. However, the drift seal appears to be a critical design element in all models, effectively limiting radionuclide transport by hydrologically disconnecting sections of the repository. Additional beneficial design choices include the use of dry salt in disposal drifts to limit radionuclide transport and reducing the infrastructure area costs and minimizing host rock damage.

DECOVALEX↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven model validation for neutrino-nucleus cross section measurements

Neutrino-nucleus cross section measurements are needed to improve interaction modeling to meet the precision needs of neutrino experiments in efforts to measure oscillation parameters and search for physics beyond the Standard Model. We review the difficulties associated with modeling neutrino-nucleus interactions that lead to a dependence on event generators in oscillation analyses and cross section measurements alike. We then describe data-driven model validation techniques intended to address this model dependence. The method relies on utilizing various goodness-of-fit tests and the correlations between different observables and channels to probe the model for defects in the phase space relevant for the desired analysis. These techniques shed light on relevant mismodeling, allowing it to be detected before it begins to bias the cross section results. We compare more commonly used model validation methods which directly validate the model against alternative ones to these data-driven techniques and show their efficacy with fake data studies. These studies demonstrate that employing data-driven model validation in cross section measurements represents a reliable strategy to produce robust results that will stimulate the desired improvements to interaction modeling.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven model validation for neutrino-nucleus cross section measurements

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A framework for feasibility-level validation of high-resolution wave hindcast models

The value of long-term wave hindcasts for investigating wave climates, wave energy resources, and extreme wave conditions has motivated research developing, calibrating and validating wave hindcast models. Past hindcast model validation studies examined the accuracy in modeling bulk wave parameters of overall sea states without considering the dependency of the model's skill within different sea states. In the present study, a framework for wave hindcast model validation is developed by examining the model accuracy for the most frequently occurring sea states, sea states contributing the most energy to total wave power, sea states associated with hurricane events, and those with the largest model error. Here, validations using bulk wave parameters and frequency-directional spectra at these key sea states and extreme wave conditions based on univariate and bivariate-contour methods provide insights to improve model accuracy, identifying the model's strong and weak points, and pathways for improvement, e.g., modeling wave-current interactions and adjusting wind data. This study adds to a growing body of research demonstrating that a carefully calibrated and verified spectral wave hindcast model can be used to estimate key wave energy parameters over a wide range of wave energy climates, as well as their spatial, temporal, frequency, directional, and probabilistic distributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Anomalous transport in high-mobility superconducting SrTiO 3 thin films

The study of subtle effects on transport in semiconductors requires high-quality epitaxial structures with low defect density. Using hybrid molecular beam epitaxy (MBE), SrTiO 3 films with a low-temperature mobility exceeding 42,000 cm 2 V -1 s -1 at a low carrier density of 3 × 10 17 cm -3 were achieved. A sudden and sharp decrease in residual resistivity accompanied by an enhancement in the superconducting transition temperature were observed across the second Lifshitz transition where the third band becomes occupied, revealing dominant intraband scattering. These films further revealed an anomalous behavior in the Hall carrier density as a consequence of the antiferrodistortive (AFD) transition and the temperature dependence of the Hall scattering factor. Using hybrid MBE growth, phenomenological modeling, temperature-dependent transport measurements, and scanning superconducting quantum interference device imaging, we provide critical insights into the important role of inter- versus intraband scattering and of AFD domain walls on normal-state and superconducting properties of SrTiO 3 .

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying the Impact of Vertical Resolution on the Representation of Marine Boundary Layer Physics for Global-Scale Models

Abstract While GCM horizontal resolution has received the majority of scale improvements in recent years, ample evidence suggests that a model’s vertical resolution exerts a strong control on its ability to accurately simulate the physics of the marine boundary layer. Here we show that, regardless of parameter tuning, the ability of a single-column model (SCM) to simulate the subtropical marine boundary layer improves when its vertical resolution is improved. We introduce a novel objective tuning technique to optimize the parameters of an SCM against profiles of temperature and moisture and their turbulent fluxes, horizontal winds, cloud water, and rainwater from large-eddy simulations (LES). We use this method to identify optimal parameters for simulating marine stratocumulus and shallow cumulus. The novel tuning method utilizes an objective performance metric that accounts for the uncertainty in the LES output, including the covariability between model variables. Optimization is performed independently for different vertical grid spacings and value of time step, ranging from coarse scales often used in current global models (120 m, 180 s) to fine scales often used in parameterization development and large-eddy simulations (10 m, 15 s). Uncertainty-weighted disagreement between the SCM and LES decreases by a factor of ∼5 when vertical grid spacing is improved from 120 to 10 m, with time step reductions being of secondary importance. Model performance is shown to converge at a vertical grid spacing of 20 m, with further refinements to 10 m leading to little further improvement. Significance Statement In successive generations of computer models that simulate Earth’s atmosphere, improvements have been mainly accomplished by reducing the horizontal sizes of discretized grid boxes, while the vertical grid spacing has seen comparatively lesser refinements. Here we advocate for additional attention to be paid to the number of vertical layers in these models, especially in the model layers closest to Earth’s surface where climatologically important marine stratocumulus and shallow cumulus clouds reside. Our experiments show that the ability of a one-dimensional model to represent physical processes important to these clouds is strongly dependent on the model’s vertical grid spacing.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hierarchical Conceptual Model Event and Activity Domains for Forecasting State-Sponsored Civil Nuclear Power Activities

In FY20, the Savannah River National Laboratory and the Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics (Virginia Tech) entered a collaboration funded by the Department of Energy’s Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development to develop a machine learning based modeling pipeline to extract proliferation events of interest from open data sources. The prototype modeling pipeline that was developed relies on the use of time dependent word embedding models to identify contextual shifts in key words and phrases that act as indicators of events of interest. The FY20- 21 efforts were focused on a narrow topical domain of forecasting “fissile core fabrication” at the Savannah River Site prior to its official announcement in 2018. In FY22, the research team was funded to continue development of the modeling pipeline by applying it to the problem of forecasting new, and/or significant changes to existing, civil nuclear power reactors around the world. In this effort, the development will focus on proving applicability to a broader topical domain and in data environments that may contain more sparse information, relative to the United States. In this report, the worldwide landscape of civil nuclear reactors is outlined, the timeline of interest is defined, and a hierarchical conceptual model is established to identify the activity domains of interest and the event domains of interest. This preliminary effort will guide the curation of a glossary of key terms for data acquisition, as well as the downstream modeling efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

REBOUND: Reverse Engineering Bidirectional Outflow Under Non-Equilibrium Diffusion

Rare-earth elements (REEs) are essential for electronics, renewable energy, and defense technologies. However, the current supply of REEs relies on mining concentrated in a few countries and energy-intensive separations. DOE’s Basic Energy Sciences (BES) program has launched a grand challenge which aims to ensure a sustainable supply of critical REEs by developing innovative and environmentally friendly separation methods. As an alternative to costly and harmful traditional methods, the Non-Equilibrium Transport Driven Separations (NETS) initiative has created a microfluidic Y-channel co-flow method that applies external fields to exploit magneto- and electrohydrodynamic effects for separating dilute REE ions from complex feedstocks. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) studies have identified a few operating conditions with promising ion selectivity and separation efficiency. However, challenges remain regarding Y-channel versatility across feedstocks and accurate incorporation of physical phenomena into CFD models. In this work, we develop a multi-fidelity modelling approach which integrates experimental results with CFD simulation to build a surrogate model for the dependence of separation efficiency to variation of design parameters. The surrogate model enables a reinforcement learning (RL) method to adaptively launch CFD and experimental runs, improving model fidelity around optimal Y-channel parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate Model for Distribution Networks Influenced by Weather

Here, we propose a method for generating reduced representations of time series and for constructing low dimensional surrogate models for time dependent calculations of power and voltage in distribution networks. We employ Fourier polynomials. The surrogate model strategy is aimed at reducing the computational cost of time dependent simulations, albeit, at the expense of fidelity. The reduced representation is achieved by identifying a small and most consequential subset of degrees of freedom. In power and voltage distribution networks dynamics that are heavily influenced by strong cyclic weather events, e.g., the hourly, diurnal and seasonal cycles, the weather/climate time series spectrum exposes these most energetic components. Once the degrees of freedom are identified their amplitudes are optimized using training data. The key challenge in using spectral methods in power network surrogates is addressing the computation of quotients. For this we propose a numerically-stable deconvolution strategy.

Weather events↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Systematic Modeling Uncertainties on Kilonova Property Estimation

The precise atomic structure and therefore the wavelength-dependent opacities of lanthanides are highly uncertain. This uncertainty introduces systematic errors in modeling transients like kilonovae and estimating key properties such as mass, characteristic velocity, and heavy metal content. Here, we quantify how atomic data from across the literature as well as choices of thermalization efficiency of r-process radioactive decay heating impact the light curve and spectra of kilonovae. Specifically, we analyze the spectra of a grid of models produced by the radiative transfer code Sedona that span the expected range of kilonova properties to identify regions with the highest systematic uncertainty. Our findings indicate that differences in atomic data have a substantial impact on estimates of lanthanide mass fraction, spanning approximately 1 order of magnitude for lanthanide-rich ejecta, and demonstrate the difficulty in precisely measuring the lanthanide fraction in lanthanide-poor ejecta. Mass estimates vary typically by 25%–40% for differing atomic data. Similarly, the choice of thermalization efficiency can affect mass estimates by 20%–50%. Observational properties such as color and decay rate are highly model dependent. Velocity estimation, when fitting solely based on the light curve, can have a typical error of ∼100%. Atomic data of light r-process elements can strongly affect blue emission. Even for well-observed events like GW170817, the total lanthanide production estimated using different atomic data sets can vary by a factor of ∼6.

Gravitational wave sources↗

DOE OSTI2024

A macro-micro approach for identifying crystal plasticity parameters for necking and failure in nickel-based alloy haynes 282

Here, this work develops a two-scales macro-micro approach to address the challenge in calibrating crystal plasticity microstructural models when samples undergo necking prior to fracture. The crystal plasticity models are crucial for predicting the materials’ plastic deformation and failure at the microstructure level, identifying the materials’ intrinsic properties as well as investigating the microstructure-properties relationships. However, after necking occurs, the experimentally measured stress-strain curves fail to reflect the materials ‘true’ stress-strain behavior and cannot be directly fitted into crystal plasticity models. The proposed macro-micro approach employs a top-down strategy to address this challenge, which has been studied with experimental tests on precipitation-strengthened Ni-based superalloy Haynes® 282®. In this approach, a macro rate-dependent anisotropic plasticity model with Voce-type hardening and Rice-Tracey damage law is first utilized to model the deformation and failure of the tensile bar, and calibrated by matching the stress-strain curves, necking strain, and reduction of area. Especially, to match the testing results under different applied strain rates, the rate-sensitivity parameter m and saturation stress in the elasticity model are modified to incorporate dependence on the local strain rate. Then, the ‘true’ stress-strain behaviors are extracted from the necking zone of the macro-model, which are used to calibrate a micro-model with explicit microstructures and governed by an extended crystal plasticity law. The consistency between the micro-model and macro-model are enforced during calibration. The calibration outcomes from the crystal plasticity model elucidate the materials intrinsic properties for slip, hardening, and failure, which is vital for further investigations into the microstructure-properties relationship and for accurate prediction of the material behavior under various test and service conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Method of Finite Averages: A rigorous upscaling methodology for heterogeneous porous media

Rigorous upscaling techniques offer accurate and computationally-efficient strategies for modeling the average behaviors of multi-physical, multiscale phenomena in geological porous media. However, such techniques often rely on a variety of methodological assumptions that prohibit their rigorous application to practical systems (e.g., systems involving heterogeneous porous media, system-scale boundary conditions, and fine-scale dynamics that are not diffusion-dominant). In this work, we aim to formulate an upscaling methodology with few methodological assumptions to provide high levels of model generality and foster the utilization of rigorously-derived upscaled models in practice. In particular, we introduce the Method of Finite Averages (MoFA), a novel upscaling methodology for rigorously modeling heterogeneous porous media and system-scale boundary conditions. We then detail MoFA’s implementation for the advective–diffusive transport of a single species and compare the methodology with classic numerical techniques, as well as other rigorous upscaling techniques, to highlight MoFA’s unique combination of rigor and generality. We then validate the derived model while demonstrating its benefits in three numerical experiments. The results suggest that (1.) the applicability and a priori error guarantees of MoFA models do not directly depend on system geometry, (2.) a model’s applicability and error guarantees can be can arbitrarily expanded and reduced, respectively, with further computational expense, and (3.) downscaling with MoFA provides an efficient strategy for generating accurate pore-scale solutions from upscaled results. Ultimately, the results evidence that upscaled models can be rigorously derived for heterogeneous porous media systems and resolved in a fraction of the time it takes to perform the equivalent pore-scale simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Temperature-based reactive flow model for triaminotrinitrobenzene (TATB) plastic bonded explosives

A new reactive flow model is presented for triaminotrinitrobenzene (TATB)-based plastic bonded explosives, applicable to shock initiation and steady detonation problems of differing initial temperature. Temperature disequilibrium is assumed between unreacted explosive, material in the vicinity of compressed defects (called hot spots), and reaction products. The model incorporates temperature-dependent decomposition reaction rates. Particularly, Arrhenius model parameters were derived from quantum-based molecular dynamics simulations of TATB decomposition. Further, a model of detonation carbon aggregation is incorporated, describing the slow release of energy inherent to detonation in TATB-based materials. Model parameters were calibrated against gas gun shock initiation experiments and steady detonation rate stick tests. The predictive ability of the model in the shock initiation regime is tested against recent thin pulse experiments. The model is found to perform equally well in predicting the size-effect curve of ambient, cold, and hot rate sticks. The present work demonstrates the viability of incorporating results from subscale simulations into a continuum-scale reactive flow model.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗