Results for “covariates” — Page 26

DOE OSTI2025

VA Determinants of Health Data Curation Documentation FY25-Q3

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) places the health and well-being of our nation’s veterans as its top priority. VA is dedicated to offering timely access to high-quality, evidence-based mental health care that meets the needs of veterans and supports their reintegration into society. One of our core missions is to prevent suicide among veterans through innovative approaches and resources. With funding from the VA Office of Mental Health and Suicide Prevention (OMHSP), the Determinants of Health (EDH) project has developed innovative datasets associated with specific health outcomes, a methodology for transforming spatiotemporal data from one spatial reference (e.g., a 1km grid) to another (e.g., US Census Tracts), and capabilities for modeling health outcomes. These datasets represent an enhancement of the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), addressing key gaps by introducing finer spatial resolution (Census Tract) and additional geographical covariates into existing data. The curation and standardization of these datasets is a complex task since they often originate from various sources and are measured at different spatial and temporal resolutions. For example, US Census data products typically use census blocks, block groups, or counties, while data like weather data are available on 1km grids. Some economic data may only be available at the zip code level. In this context, ‘standardized’ means that all datasets share the same spatial extent (e.g., US Census Tract and/or County), and ‘curated’ implies a repeatable process with data provenance and the use of appropriate methodologies for covariate conversion. The Determinants of Health datasets draw from multiple sources, resulting in variables with varying degrees of availability, patterns of missing data, and methodological considerations across different sources, geographies, and years.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

VA Community Determinants of Health Data Curation Documentation FY25-Q4

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) places the health and well-being of our nation’s veterans as its top priority. VA is dedicated to offering timely access to high-quality, evidence-based mental health care that meets the needs of veterans and supports their reintegration into society. One of our core missions is to prevent suicide among veterans through innovative approaches and resources. With funding from the VA Office of Mental Health and Suicide Prevention (OMHSP), the Determinants of Health (EDH) project has developed innovative datasets associated with specific health outcomes, a methodology for transforming spatiotemporal data from one spatial reference (e.g., a 1km grid) to another (e.g., US Census Tracts), and capabilities for modeling health outcomes. These datasets represent an enhancement of the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), addressing key gaps by introducing finer spatial resolution (Census Tract) and additional geographical covariates into existing data. The curation and standardization of these datasets is a complex task since they often originate from various sources and are measured at different spatial and temporal resolutions. For example, US Census data products typically use census blocks, block groups, or counties, while data like weather data are available on 1km grids. Some economic data may only be available at the zip code level. In this context, standardized’ means that all datasets share the same spatial extent (e.g., US Census Tract and/or County), and ‘curated’ implies a repeatable process with data provenance and the use of appropriate methodologies for covariate conversion. The Determinants of Health datasets draw from multiple sources, resulting in variables with varying degrees of availability, patterns of missing data, and methodological considerations across different sources, geographies, and years.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

VA Community Determinants of Health Data Curation Documentation FY26-Q1

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) places the health and well-being of our nation’s veterans as its top priority. VA is dedicated to offering timely access to high-quality, evidence-based mental health care that meets the needs of veterans and supports their reintegration into society. One of our core missions is to prevent suicide among veterans through innovative approaches and resources. With funding from the VA Office of Mental Health and Suicide Prevention (OMHSP), the Community Determinants of Health (EDH) Data project has developed innovative datasets associated with specific health outcomes, a methodology for transforming spatiotemporal data from one spatial reference (e.g., a 1km grid) to another (e.g., US Census Tracts), and capabilities for modeling health outcomes. These datasets represent an enhancement of the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), addressing key gaps by introducing finer spatial resolution (Census Tract) and additional geographical covariates into existing data. The curation and standardization of these datasets is a complex task since they often originate from various sources and are measured at different spatial and temporal resolutions. For example, US Census data products typically use census blocks, block groups, or counties, while data like weather data are available on 1km grids. Some economic data may only be available at the zip code level. In this context, ‘standardized’ means that all datasets share the same spatial extent (e.g., US Census Tract and/or County), and ‘curated’ implies a repeatable process with data provenance and the use of appropriate methodologies for covariate conversion. The Community Determinants of Health datasets draw from multiple sources, resulting in variables with varying degrees of availability, patterns of missing data, and methodological considerations across different sources, geographies, and years.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-frequency Data Integration for Landscape Model Calibration of Carbon Fluxes Across Diverse Tidal Marshes

Terrestrial Aquatic Interfaces (TAIs), and tidal wetlands in particular, store large amounts of carbon yet are not well represented in Earth System Models (ESMs). Predictions of carbon cycling and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in tidal wetlands are highly uncertain. Eddy covariance (EC) towers provide ecosystem-scale GHG flux data at a temporal resolution (every 30min) that is helpful for parameterizing and improving mechanistic realism in ESMs. We propose to use a network of eddy covariance towers and standardized ancillary data streams, along with mesocosm experiments and statistical analyses, across diverse tidal wetlands of North America to develop and improve biogeochemical modeling at the TAI. Our overarching objective is to improve understanding and process-based modeling of gross primary productivity (GPP) and CH4 emission responses, both non-linear and asynchronous, to stressors including plant inundation, disturbance, salinity and nitrogen loading.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

VA Community Determinants of Health Data Curation Documentation FY26-Q2

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) places the health and well-being of our nation’s veterans as its top priority. VA is dedicated to offering timely access to high-quality, evidence-based mental health care that meets the needs of veterans and supports their reintegration into society. One of our core missions is to prevent suicide among veterans through innovative approaches and resources. With funding from the VA Office of Mental Health and Suicide Prevention (OMHSP), the Community Determinants of Health (EDH) Data project has developed innovative datasets associated with specific health outcomes, a methodology for transforming spatiotemporal data from one spatial reference (e.g., a 1 km grid) to another (e.g., U.S. Census Tracts), and capabilities for modeling health outcomes. These datasets represent an enhancement of the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), addressing key gaps by introducing finer spatial resolution (Census Tract) and additional geographical covariates into existing data. The curation and standardization of these datasets is a complex task since they often originate from various sources and are measured at different spatial and temporal resolutions. For example, U.S. Census data products typically use census blocks, block groups, or counties, while data like weather data are available on 1 km grids. Some economic data may only be available at the ZIP code level. In this context, ‘standardized’ means that all datasets share the same spatial extent (e.g., U.S. Census Tract and/or County), and ‘curated’ implies a repeatable process with data provenance and the use of appropriate methodologies for covariate conversion. The Community Determinants of Health datasets draw from multiple sources, resulting in variables with varying degrees of availability, patterns of missing data, and methodological considerations across different sources, geographies, and years.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Using AI to Reproduce Neutrino Cross Section Analysis - Prototyping the Neutrino Discovery Platform

The Neutrino Discovery Platform (NDP) aims to accelerate DUNE-era science by making the neutrino program's existing datasets analyzable through fast, reproducible, and auditable workflows. We report a working version of two of its layers, data curation and agentic orchestration, built and tested end to end on MINERvA open data. The guiding lesson throughout is that a cross section is a measurement, and not just a plotted shape, only if it carries a defensible systematic-uncertainty budget, a trustworthy unfolding, and a reproducible record. Using a single medium-energy playlist pair from the MINERvA open-data release (about $2.05\times10^{17}$ protons on target of data), we first reproduced the shapes of two published charged-current inclusive $\nu_\mu$ measurements through a complete extraction ladder: selection, background subtraction, D'Agostini unfolding, efficiency correction, and flux normalization. These shape-level reproductions ran and tracked the published results, but they lacked the systematic-uncertainty machinery that defines a MINERvA cross section. To supply it, we vendored and built the MINERvA Analysis Toolkit and developed a many-universe systematic-uncertainty tool that produces a portable covariance artifact, a parallel event-loop runner, and a per-run auditability harness. Validated against a published covariance release, the toolchain reproduces the released statistical, flux, and muon-energy-scale terms and shows that they account for roughly 63\% of the total variance, with the remainder unreleased. Using this same infrastructure, we then performed a measurement of our own design, the hadronic recoil-energy distribution of low-energy ($E_\nu<2.5$~GeV) charged-current inclusive events, and found data/simulation shape agreement of $\chi^2/\mathrm{ndf}=1.26$. Together these results show that the platform supports original physics and not only reproductions.

Breaux, Auto [Tulane U. (main)]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Health Care Usage During the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Adoption of Telemedicine: Retrospective Study of Chronic Disease Cohorts

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated telehealth adoption across disease cohorts of patients. For many patients, routine medical care was no longer an option, and others chose not to visit medical offices in order to minimize COVID-19 exposure. In this study, we take a comprehensive multidisease approach in studying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on health care usage and the adoption of telemedicine through the first 12 months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Objective: We studied the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on in-person health care usage and telehealth adoption across chronic diseases to understand differences in telehealth adoption across disease cohorts and patient demographics (such as the Social Vulnerability Index [SVI]). Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 6 different disease cohorts (anxiety: n=67,578; depression: n=45,570; diabetes: n=81,885; kidney failure: n=29,284; heart failure: n=21,152; and cancer: n=35,460). We used summary statistics to characterize changes in usage and regression analysis to study how patient characteristics relate to in-person health care and telehealth adoption and usage during the first 12 months of the pandemic. Results: We observed a reduction in in-person health care usage across disease cohorts (ranging from 10% to 24%). For most diseases we study, telehealth appointments offset the reduction in in-person visits. Furthermore, for anxiety and depression, the increase in telehealth usage exceeds the reduction in in-person visits (by up to 5%). We observed that younger patients and men have higher telehealth usage after accounting for other covariates. Patients from higher SVI areas are less likely to use telehealth; however, if they do, they have a higher number of telehealth visits, after accounting for other covariates. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic affected health care usage across diseases, and the role of telehealth in replacing in-person visits varies by disease cohort. Understanding these differences can inform current practices and provides opportunities to further guide modalities of in-person and telehealth visits. Critically, further study is needed to understand barriers to telehealth service usage for patients in higher SVI areas. A better understanding of the role of social determinants of health may lead to more support for patients and help individual health care providers improve access to care for patients with chronic conditions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

KBase Narrative - Porphyromonadaceae sp. W3.11 genome

Narratives for The phenotype and genotype of fermentative prokaryotes This is the Narrative for Porphyromonadaceae sp. W3.11. A complementary Narrative for Lachnospiraceae sp. C1.1 is available here. This is the Narrative for Lachnospiraceae sp. C1.1. A complementary Narrative for Porphyromonadaceae sp. W3.11 is available here. Background and Isolation This Narrative and its complementary Narrative contain assembly and annotation of two bacterial isolates that were isolated by our laboratory from the rumen of a Holstein heifer. All procedures with animals have been approved by University of California Davis’s Institutional Animal Care and Use Committee. Rumen contents were collected through a rumen fistula and strained through two layers of cheesecloth into a bottle. The bottle was sealed to exclude air and maintained at 39°C. Contents were brought to the laboratory and bubbled under O2-free CO2 within 15 min. At the laboratory, serial dilutions were made with anaerobic dilution solution for Lachnospiraceae sp. C1.1 and propionibacterium diluent for Porphyromonadaceae sp. W3.11 (table S2). Aliquots (0.1 ml) of each dilution were injected into anaerobic bottle plates (1) containing 9 ml of LH medium (table S2). After incubation at 37°C for 7 days, isolated colonies were picked. Lachnospiraceae sp. C1.1 was picked from a bottle inoculated with a 104 dilution of rumen contents, and Porphyromonadaceae sp. W3.11 was picked from a bottle inoculated with a 103 dilution. After initial isolation, these organisms were purified by growing on anaerobic roll tubes (2) and picking isolated colonies. We performed de novo sequencing of Lachnospiraceae sp. C1.1 and Porphyromonadaceae sp. W3.11. Aliquots of liquid culture (9 and 1.5 ml, respectively) were collected by syringe and centrifuged (21,000g for 10 min at 4°C). Cell pellets were submitted to Molecular Research LP for DNA extraction, library preparation, and sequencing. After resuspending pellets in 180 µl of ATL buffer (Qiagen), DNA was extracted using the MagAttract HMW DNA Kit (Qiagen). DNA was eluted in 100 µl of AE buffer (Qiagen) and then cleaned using the DNEasy PowerClean Pro Cleanup Kit (Qiagen). DNA was then sheared using the Covaris g-TUBE (Covaris). Sequencing libraries were prepared using the SMRTbell Express Template Prep Kit 2.0 (Pacific Biosciences) and 1500 ng of the sheared and purified DNA. The SMRTbell libraries were size-selected (>6 Kb) using a BluePippin instrument (Sage Science) and 0.75% agarose gel. Libraries were then sequenced using the PacBio Sequel II (Pacific Biosciences) platform and a 30-hour movie time. Narrative Summary In these Narratives, we filtered low-quality reads using Trimmomatic (v0.36), assembled filtered reads with SPAdes (v3.15.3), and then checked completeness and contamination of the assembled genomes with CheckM (v1.0.18). Statistics for sequencing and assembly are in table S3. Using the assembled contigs (genomes), we called genes and annotated them. Protein-coding genes were called using Prodigal (v2.6.3) (3) locally or using KBase via RASTtk (v1.073), with identical results. Genes were annotated with KO IDs using KAAS (4). They were further annotated with pfam and TIGRFAM IDs using KBase and the Annotate Domains in a Genome app. We classified putative genes for hydrogenases using HydDB. Genes for 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) were called using RASTtk (v1.073) in KBase. The contigs (genomes) were analyzed to determine whether they belonged to new species. Taxonomy was assigned using GTDB-Tk (v1.7.0) in KBase. The identity of 16S rRNA genes to other organisms was found using EzBioCloud (5). Values of digital DNA-DNA hybridization (dDDH) were found with Type (Strain) Genome Server (6). These analyses suggest that Lachnospiraceae sp. C1.1 and Porphyromonadaceae sp. W3.11 represent novel species or genera. GTDB-Tk assigned Lachnospiracae sp. C1.1 to family Lachnospiraceae and genus NK4A144, which contains no type strains. It assigned Porphyromonadaceae sp. W3.11 to Porphyromonadaceae and genus Porphyromonas_A. Values of 16S rRNA identity and dDDH with respect to type strains were low (table S4). Although more phenotypic data are needed, available evidence supports assignment of genomes to new species or genera. Related publication Hackmann TJ, Zhang B. The phenotype and genotype of fermentative prokaryotes. Sci Adv. 2023 Sep 29;9(39):eadg8687. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adg8687. Epub 2023 Sep 27. PMID: 37756392; PMCID: PMC10530074.

Hackmann, Timothy↗

DOE OSTI2024

KBase Narrative - Lachnospiraceae sp. C1.1 genome

Narratives for The phenotype and genotype of fermentative prokaryotes This is the Narrative for Porphyromonadaceae sp. W3.11. A complementary Narrative for Lachnospiraceae sp. C1.1 is available here. This is the Narrative for Lachnospiraceae sp. C1.1. A complementary Narrative for Porphyromonadaceae sp. W3.11 is available here. Background and Isolation This Narrative and its complementary Narrative contain assembly and annotation of two bacterial isolates that were isolated by our laboratory from the rumen of a Holstein heifer. All procedures with animals have been approved by University of California Davis’s Institutional Animal Care and Use Committee. Rumen contents were collected through a rumen fistula and strained through two layers of cheesecloth into a bottle. The bottle was sealed to exclude air and maintained at 39°C. Contents were brought to the laboratory and bubbled under O2-free CO2 within 15 min. At the laboratory, serial dilutions were made with anaerobic dilution solution for Lachnospiraceae sp. C1.1 and propionibacterium diluent for Porphyromonadaceae sp. W3.11 (table S2). Aliquots (0.1 ml) of each dilution were injected into anaerobic bottle plates (1) containing 9 ml of LH medium (table S2). After incubation at 37°C for 7 days, isolated colonies were picked. Lachnospiraceae sp. C1.1 was picked from a bottle inoculated with a 104 dilution of rumen contents, and Porphyromonadaceae sp. W3.11 was picked from a bottle inoculated with a 103 dilution. After initial isolation, these organisms were purified by growing on anaerobic roll tubes (2) and picking isolated colonies. We performed de novo sequencing of Lachnospiraceae sp. C1.1 and Porphyromonadaceae sp. W3.11. Aliquots of liquid culture (9 and 1.5 ml, respectively) were collected by syringe and centrifuged (21,000g for 10 min at 4°C). Cell pellets were submitted to Molecular Research LP for DNA extraction, library preparation, and sequencing. After resuspending pellets in 180 µl of ATL buffer (Qiagen), DNA was extracted using the MagAttract HMW DNA Kit (Qiagen). DNA was eluted in 100 µl of AE buffer (Qiagen) and then cleaned using the DNEasy PowerClean Pro Cleanup Kit (Qiagen). DNA was then sheared using the Covaris g-TUBE (Covaris). Sequencing libraries were prepared using the SMRTbell Express Template Prep Kit 2.0 (Pacific Biosciences) and 1500 ng of the sheared and purified DNA. The SMRTbell libraries were size-selected (>6 Kb) using a BluePippin instrument (Sage Science) and 0.75% agarose gel. Libraries were then sequenced using the PacBio Sequel II (Pacific Biosciences) platform and a 30-hour movie time. Narrative Summary In these Narratives, we filtered low-quality reads using Trimmomatic (v0.36), assembled filtered reads with SPAdes (v3.15.3), and then checked completeness and contamination of the assembled genomes with CheckM (v1.0.18). Statistics for sequencing and assembly are in table S3. Using the assembled contigs (genomes), we called genes and annotated them. Protein-coding genes were called using Prodigal (v2.6.3) (3) locally or using KBase via RASTtk (v1.073), with identical results. Genes were annotated with KO IDs using KAAS (4). They were further annotated with pfam and TIGRFAM IDs using KBase and the Annotate Domains in a Genome app. We classified putative genes for hydrogenases using HydDB. Genes for 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) were called using RASTtk (v1.073) in KBase. The contigs (genomes) were analyzed to determine whether they belonged to new species. Taxonomy was assigned using GTDB-Tk (v1.7.0) in KBase. The identity of 16S rRNA genes to other organisms was found using EzBioCloud (5). Values of digital DNA-DNA hybridization (dDDH) were found with Type (Strain) Genome Server (6). These analyses suggest that Lachnospiraceae sp. C1.1 and Porphyromonadaceae sp. W3.11 represent novel species or genera. GTDB-Tk assigned Lachnospiracae sp. C1.1 to family Lachnospiraceae and genus NK4A144, which contains no type strains. It assigned Porphyromonadaceae sp. W3.11 to Porphyromonadaceae and genus Porphyromonas_A. Values of 16S rRNA identity and dDDH with respect to type strains were low (table S4). Although more phenotypic data are needed, available evidence supports assignment of genomes to new species or genera. Related publication Hackmann TJ, Zhang B. The phenotype and genotype of fermentative prokaryotes. Sci Adv. 2023 Sep 29;9(39):eadg8687. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adg8687. Epub 2023 Sep 27. PMID: 37756392; PMCID: PMC10530074.

Hackmann, Timothy↗

DOE OSTI2025

The DECADE cosmic shear project III: validation of analysis pipeline using spatially inhomogeneous data

We present the pipeline for the cosmic shear analysis of the Dark Energy Camera All Data Everywhere (DECADE) weak lensing dataset: a catalog consisting of 107 million galaxies observed by the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) in the northern Galactic cap. The catalog derives from a large number of disparate observing programs and is therefore more inhomogeneous across the sky compared to existing lensing surveys. First, we use simulated data-vectors to show the sensitivity of our constraints to different analysis choices in our inference pipeline, including sensitivity to residual systematics. Next we use simulations to validate our covariance modeling for inhomogeneous datasets. Finally, we show that our choices in the end-to-end cosmic shear pipeline are robust against inhomogeneities in the survey, by extracting relative shifts in the cosmology constraints across different subsets of the footprint/catalog and showing they are all consistent within 1σ to 2σ. This is done for forty-six subsets of the data and is carried out in a fully consistent manner: for each subset of the data, we re-derive the photometric redshift estimates, shear calibrations, survey transfer functions, the data vector, measurement covariance, and finally, the cosmological constraints. Our results show that existing analysis methods for weak lensing cosmology can be fairly resilient towards inhomogeneous datasets. This also motivates exploring a wider range of image data for pursuing such cosmological constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

SIF and Vegetation Indices in the US Midwestern Agroecosystems, 2016-2021, Carbon Monitoring System (CMS)

This dataset contains half-hourly ground solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and vegetation indices including NDVI, EVI, Red edge chlorophyll index, green chlorophyll index, and photochemical reflectance index at seven crop sites in Nebraska and Illinois for the period 2016-2021. Four sites were located at Eddy Covariance (EC) tower sites (sites US-Ne2, US-Ne3, US-UiB, and US-UiC), and three sites were located on private farms (sites Reifsteck, Rund, and Reinhart). The sites were either miscanthus, corn-soybean rotation or corn-corn-soybean rotation. The spectral data for SIF retrieval and hyperspectral reflectance for vegetation index calculation were collected by the FluoSpec2 system, installed near planting, and uninstalled after harvest to collect whole growing-season data. Raw nadir SIF at 760 nm from different algorithms (sFLD, 3FLD, iFLD, SFM) are included. SFM_nonlinear and SFM_linear represent the Spectral fitting method (SFM) with the assumption that fluorescence and reflectance change with wavelength non-linearly and linearly, respectively. Additional data include two SIF correction factors including calibration coefficient adjustment factor (f_cal_corr_QEPRO) and upscaling nadir SIF to eddy covariance footprint factor (ratio_EC footprint, SIF pixel), and measured FPAR from quantum sensors and Rededge NDVI calculated FPAR. The data are provided in comma-separated values (CSV) format.

Ameriflux↗

DOE OSTI2023

Binning is Sinning: Redemption for Hubble Diagram Using Photometrically Classified Type Ia Supernovae

Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species (BEAMS) is implemented in the BEAMS with Bias Corrections (BBC) framework to produce a redshift-binned Hubble diagram (HD) for Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). BBC corrects for selection effects and non–SN Ia contamination, and systematic uncertainties are described by a covariance matrix with dimension matching the number of BBC redshift bins. For spectroscopically confirmed SN Ia samples, a recent "Binning is Sinning" article showed that an unbinned HD and covariance matrix reduces the systematic uncertainty by a factor of ~1.5 compared to the binned approach. Here we extend their analysis to obtain an unbinned HD for a photometrically identified sample processed with BBC. To test this new method, we simulate and analyze 50 samples corresponding to the Dark Energy Survey (DES) with a low-redshift anchor; the simulation includes SNe Ia, and contaminants from core-collapse SNe and peculiar SNe Ia. The analysis includes systematic uncertainties for calibration and measures the dark energy equation of state parameter (w). Compared to a redshift-binned HD, the unbinned HD with nearly 2000 events results in a smaller systematic uncertainty, in qualitative agreement with BHS21, and averaging results among the 50 samples we find no evidence for a w-bias. To reduce computation time for fitting an unbinned HD with large samples, we propose an HD-rebinning method that defines the HD in bins of redshift, color, and stretch; the rebinned HD results in similar uncertainty as the unbinned case, and shows no evidence for a w-bias.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Vertical dependence of horizontal variation of cloud microphysics: observations from the ACE-ENA field campaign and implications for warm-rain simulation in climate models

Abstract. In the current global climate models (GCMs), the nonlinearity effect of subgrid cloud variations on the parameterization of warm-rain process, e.g., the autoconversion rate, is often treated by multiplying the resolved-scale warm-rain process rates by a so-called enhancement factor (EF). In this study, we investigate the subgrid-scale horizontal variations and covariation of cloud water content (qc) and cloud droplet number concentration (Nc) in marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds based on the in situ measurements from a recent field campaign and study the implications for the autoconversion rate EF in GCMs. Based on a few carefully selected cases from the field campaign, we found that in contrast to the enhancing effect of qc and Nc variations that tends to make EF > 1, the strong positive correlation between qc and Nc results in a suppressing effect that tends to make EF < 1. This effect is especially strong at cloud top, where the qc and Nc correlation can be as high as 0.95. We also found that the physically complete EF that accounts for the covariation of qc and Nc is significantly smaller than its counterpart that accounts only for the subgrid variation of qc, especially at cloud top. Although this study is based on limited cases, it suggests that the subgrid variations of Nc and its correlation with qc both need to be considered for an accurate simulation of the autoconversion process in GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using optimal estimation to retrieve winds from velocity-azimuth display (VAD) scans by a Doppler lidar

Abstract. Low-powered commercially available coherent Doppler lidar (CDL) wind profilers provide continuous measurement of vertical profiles of wind in the lower troposphere, usually close to or up to the top of the planetary boundary layer. The vertical extent of these wind profiles is limited by the availability of scatterers and thus varies substantially throughout the day and from one day to the next. This makes it challenging to develop continuous products that rely on CDL-observed wind profiles. In order to overcome this problem, we have developed a new method for wind profile retrievals from CDL that combines the traditional velocity-azimuth display (VAD) technique with optimal estimation (OE) to provide continuous wind profiles up to 3 km. The new method exploits the level-to-level covariance present in the wind profile to fill in the gaps where the signal-to-noise ratio of the CDL return is too low to provide reliable results using the traditional VAD method. Another advantage of the new method is that it provides the full error covariance matrix of the solution and profiles of information content, which more easily facilitates the assimilation of the observed wind profiles into numerical weather prediction models. This method was tested using yearlong CDL measurements at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility in 2019. Comparison with the ARM operational CDL wind profile product and collocated radiosonde wind measurements shows excellent agreement (R2>0.99) with no degradation in results where the traditional VAD provided a valid solution. In the region where traditional VAD does not provide results, the OE wind speed and wind vector have uncertainties of 3.44 and 4.33 m s−1, respectively. As a result, the new method provides additional information over the standard technique and increases the effective range of existing CDL systems without the need for additional hardware.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Using automated machine learning for the upscaling of gross primary productivity

Estimating gross primary productivity (GPP) over space and time is fundamental for understanding the response of the terrestrial biosphere to climate change. Eddy covariance flux towers provide in situ estimates of GPP at the ecosystem scale, but their sparse geographical distribution limits larger-scale inference. Machine learning (ML) techniques have been used to address this problem by extrapolating local GPP measurements over space using satellite remote sensing data. However, the accuracy of the regression model can be affected by uncertainties introduced by model selection, parameterization, and choice of explanatory features, among others. Recent advances in automated ML (AutoML) provide a novel automated way to select and synthesize different ML models. In this work, we explore the potential of AutoML by training three major AutoML frameworks on eddy covariance measurements of GPP at 243 globally distributed sites. We compared their ability to predict GPP and its spatial and temporal variability based on different sets of remote sensing explanatory variables. Explanatory variables from only Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance data and photosynthetically active radiation explained over 70 % of the monthly variability in GPP, while satellite-derived proxies for canopy structure, photosynthetic activity, environmental stressors, and meteorological variables from reanalysis (ERA5-Land) further improved the frameworks' predictive ability. We found that the AutoML framework Auto-sklearn consistently outperformed other AutoML frameworks as well as a classical random forest regressor in predicting GPP but with small performance differences, reaching an r 2 of up to 0.75. We deployed the best-performing framework to generate global wall-to-wall maps highlighting GPP patterns in good agreement with satellite-derived reference data. This research benchmarks the application of AutoML in GPP estimation and assesses its potential and limitations in quantifying global photosynthetic activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Air temperature and precipitation constraining the modelled wetland methane emissions in a boreal region in northern Europe

Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation are studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in northern Europe using ecosystem process models. Six ecosystem models (JSBACH-HIMMELI, LPX-Bern, LPJ-GUESS, JULES, CLM4.5, and CLM5) are compared to multi-model means of ecosystem models and atmospheric inversions from the Global Carbon Project and upscaled eddy covariance flux results for their temperature and precipitation responses and seasonal cycles of the regional fluxes. Two models with contrasting response patterns, LPX-Bern and JSBACH-HIMMELI, are used as priors in atmospheric inversions with Carbon Tracker Europe–CH4 (CTE-CH4) in order to find out how the assimilation of atmospheric concentration data changes the flux estimates and how this alters the interpretation of the flux responses to temperature and precipitation. Inversion moves wetland emissions of both models towards co-limitation by temperature and precipitation. Between 2000 and 2018, periods of high temperature and/or high precipitation often resulted in increased emissions. However, the dry summer of 2018 did not result in increased emissions despite the high temperatures. The process models show strong temperature and strong precipitation responses for the region (51 %–91 % of the variance explained by both). The month with the highest emissions varies from May to September among the models. However, multi-model means, inversions, and upscaled eddy covariance flux observations agree on the month of maximum emissions and are co-limited by temperature and precipitation. The setup of different emission components (peatland emissions, mineral land fluxes) has an important role in building up the response patterns. Considering the significant differences among the models, it is essential to pay more attention to the regional representation of wet and dry mineral soils and periodic flooding which contribute to the seasonality and magnitude of methane fluxes. The realistic representation of temperature dependence of the peat soil fluxes is also important. Furthermore, it is important to use process-based descriptions for both mineral and peat soil fluxes to simulate the flux responses to climate drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Annual carbon dioxide flux over seasonal sea ice in the Canadian Arctic

Continuous measurements of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) flux were collected from a 10 m eddy covariance tower in a coastal-marine environment in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago over the course of a 17-month period. The extended length of data collection resulted in a unique dataset that includes measurements from two spring melt and summer seasons and one autumn freeze-up. These field observations were used to verify findings from previous theoretical and laboratory experiments investigating air-sea gas exchange in connection with sea ice. The results corroborated previous findings showing that thick ice cover under winter conditions acts as a barrier to gas exchange. In the spring, CO 2 fluxes were downward (uptake) in both the presence of melt ponds and during ice break-up. However, diurnal cycles were present throughout the early spring melt period, corresponding to the opposing influences of freezing and melting at the ice surface. Fluxes measured during melt periods confirmed previous laboratory tank measurements that showed a gas transfer coefficient of melting ice of 0.4 mol m −2 d −1 atm −1 . Open water CO 2 fluxes showed outgassing in early summer and uptake in mid-to-late summer, tied closely to trends in surface water temperature and its effect on the partial pressure of CO 2 in the water. The autumn period of the field campaign represents the first eddy covariance CO 2 fluxes measured over naturally forming sea ice. Our measurements showed mean upward fluxes (outgassing) of 1.1±1.5 mmol m −2 d −1 associated with the freezing of ice – the same order of magnitude found by previous laboratory tank experiments. However, peak flux periods during ice formation had measured fluxes that were a factor of 3 higher than the tank experiments, suggesting the importance of natural conditions (e.g., wind) on air-ice gas exchange. Conducting an Arctic-wide extrapolation we estimate CO 2 outgassing from the freezing period to be a counterbalance equivalent to 5 to 15 % of the magnitude of the estimated Arctic CO 2 sink. Overall, there was no evidence of dramatically enhanced gas exchange in marginal ice conditions as proposed by previous studies. Although the different seasons showed active CO 2 exchange, there was a balance between upward and downward fluxes at this specific location, resulting in a small net CO 2 uptake over the annual cycle of −0.3 g C m −2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Planetary Boundary Layer Height derived from MPL data using Sawyer-Li method

Sawyer and Li (2013) developed a technique to derive the PBL height from micropulse lidar (MPL) backscatter measurements using combined wavelet covariance transform and iterative curve-fitting methods. The wavelet covariance transform method applies a Haar wavelet function to MPL backscatter signals (Brooks et al., 2003).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗