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At least 469 records · Page 26

Full Implementation of Matrix Approach to Biogeochemistry Module of CLM5

Abstract Earth system models (ESMs) have been rapidly developed in recent decades to advance our understanding of climate change‐carbon cycle feedback. However, those models are massive in coding, require expensive computational resources, and have difficulty in diagnosing their performance. It is highly desirable to develop ESMs with modularity and effective diagnostics. Toward these goals, we implemented a matrix approach to the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) to represent carbon and nitrogen cycles. Specifically, we reorganized 18 balance equations each for carbon and nitrogen cycles among the 18 vegetation pools in the original CLM5 into two matrix equations. Similarly, 140 balance equations each for carbon and nitrogen cycles among the 140 soil pools were reorganized into two additional matrix equations. The vegetation carbon and nitrogen matrix equations are connected to soil matrix equations via litterfall. The matrix equations fully reproduce simulations of carbon and nitrogen dynamics by the original model. The computational cost for forwarding simulation of the CLM5 matrix model was 26% more expensive than the original model, largely due to calculation of additional diagnostic variables, but the spin‐up computational cost was significantly saved. We showed a case study on modeled soil carbon storage under two forcing data sets to illustrate the diagnostic capability that the matrix approach uniquely offers to understand simulation results of global carbon and nitrogen dynamics. The successful implementation of the matrix approach to CLM5, one of the most complex land models, demonstrates that most, if not all, the biogeochemical models can be reorganized into the matrix form to gain high modularity, effective diagnostics, and accelerated spin‐up.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Probabilistic partition of unity networks for high–dimensional regression problems

We explore the probabilistic partition of unity network (PPOU-Net) model in the context of high-dimensional regression problems and propose a general framework focusing on adaptive dimensionality reduction. With the proposed framework, the target function is approximated by a mixture of experts model on a low-dimensional manifold, where each cluster is associated with a fixed-degree polynomial. We present a training strategy that leverages the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. During the training, we alternate between (i) applying gradient descent to update the DNN coefficients; and (ii) using closed-form formulae derived from the EM algorithm to update the mixture of experts model parameters. Under the probabilistic formulation, step (ii) admits the form of embarrassingly paralleliazable weighted least-squares solves. The PPOU-Nets consistently outperform the baseline fully-connected neural networks of comparable sizes in numerical experiments of various data dimensions. Here, we also explore the proposed model in applications of quantum computing, where the PPOU-Nets act as surrogate models for cost landscapes associated with variational quantum circuits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

MADE3D: Enabling the next generation of high-torque density wind generators by additive design and 3D printing

Direct-drive wind turbine generators are increasing in popularity, thanks to recent project developments—especially offshore, where reliability and efficiency are major cost drivers. Yet, high capital costs are forcing many original equipment manufacturers to consider lightweight, high-torque density generators for next-generation multi-megawatt turbines that may be difficult to realize by traditional design or manufacturing methods. In this study, we present a new design framework enabled by advanced machine learning and multimaterial additive manufacturing to perform a magnetic topology optimization that maximizes the torque per rotor active mass for a 15-megawatt direct-drive permanent magnet wind generator. A comparison of the proposed approach against conventional topology optimization demonstrated a significant increase in computational efficiency and accuracy in performance predictions. Results using single and multimaterial compositions for rotor core and magnets identify a wider choice of 3D printable designs for a given specification. A hybrid combination of sintered and dysprosium-free polymer-bonded magnets shows good potential for torque performance by saving material costs up to 8.75%. More than 30% improvement in rotor torque densities is identified which can marginally improve the overall generator torque density. With the rapid evolution of multipowder deposition technolgies, this study can greatly inspire a new paradigm for design-driven manufacturing with novel material compositions and lightweight, low-cost, high-strength multimaterial geometries that were previously unexplored for direct-drive generators.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Rapid Open-Air Fabrication of Perovskite Solar Modules

We report on the open-air fabrication of perovskite solar modules with key advances including scalable large-area spray deposition, new monolithic integration scribing techniques, advanced photoluminescence characterization, and reproducible high-throughput manufacturability. Perovskite deposition with linear speeds of 12 m/min without a post-anneal are demonstrated with improved device performance, luminescent yield and >10X carrier lifetimes. Manufacturability using monolithic integration of series-connected modules is accomplished with a new indirect fiber laser ablation scribing method. A stable cell and module power output of 18.0% and 15.5%, respectively, was achieved with a subcell V oc > 1.06V. A comprehensive supporting technoeconomic analysis details the entire in-line manufacturing process from the glass substrate to the junction box of the encapsulated module. Here, the module manufacturing cost, balance of system costs and levelized cost of energy for a range of module efficiencies and lifetimes provides insights for the necessary tool speeds, efficiencies, and lifetimes for utility-scale energy generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

How Equivalent Are Equivalent Porous Media?

Abstract Geoenergy and geoengineering applications usually involve fluid injection into and production from fractured media. Accounting for fractures is important because of the strong poromechanical coupling that ties pore pressure changes and deformation. A possible approach to the problem uses equivalent porous media to reduce the computational cost and model complexity instead of explicitly including fractures in the models. We investigate the validity of this simplification by comparing these two approaches. Simulation results show that pore pressure distribution significantly differs between the two approaches even when both are calibrated to predict identical values at the injection and production wells. Additionally, changes in fracture stability are not well captured with the equivalent porous medium. We conclude that explicitly accounting for fractures in numerical models may be necessary under some circumstances to perform reliable coupled thermohydromechanical simulations, which could be used in conjunction with other tools for induced seismicity forecasting.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Non-Boussinesq subgrid-scale model with dynamic tensorial coefficients

A major drawback of Boussinesq-type subgrid-scale stress models used in large-eddy simulations is the inherent assumption of alignment between large-scale strain rates and filtered subgrid-stresses. A priori analyses using direct numerical simulation (DNS) data have shown that this assumption is invalid locally as subgrid-scale stresses are poorly correlated with the large-scale strain rates [J. Bardina, J. Ferziger, and W. Reynolds, Improved subgrid-scale models for large-eddy simulation, in Proceedings of the 13th Fluid and Plasmadynamics Conference, AIAA (1980); C. Meneveau and K. Katz, Scale-invariance and turbulence models for large-eddy simulation, Ann. Rev. Fluid Mech. 32, 1 (2000)]. In the present work, a new, non-Boussinesq subgrid-scale model is presented where the model coefficients are computed dynamically. Some previous non-Boussinesq models have observed issues in providing adequate dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy [e.g., Bardina et al., Proceedings of the 13th Fluid and Plasmadynamics Conference (1980); R. A. Clark, J. Ferziger, and W.C. Reynolds. Evaluation of subgrid-scale models using an accurately simulated turbulent flow, J. Fluid Mech. 91, 1 (1979); S. Stolz and N. A. Adams, An approximate deconvolution procedure for large-eddy simulation, Phys. Fluids 11, 1699 (1999)]; however, the present model is shown to provide sufficient dissipation using dynamic coefficients. Modeled subgrid-scale Reynolds stresses satisfy the consistency requirements of the governing equations for large-eddy simulation (LES), vanish in laminar flow and at solid boundaries, and have the correct asymptotic behavior in the near-wall region of a turbulent boundary layer. The new model, referred to as the dynamic tensor-coefficient Smagorinsky model (DTCSM), has been tested in simulations of canonical flows: decaying and forced homogeneous isotropic turbulence, and wall-modeled turbulent channel flow at high Reynolds numbers. The results show favorable agreement with DNS data. It has been shown that DTCSM offers similar predictive capabilities as the dynamic Smagorinsky model for canonical flows. In order to assess the performance of DTCSM in more complex flows, wall-modeled simulations of high Reynolds number flow over a Gaussian bump (Boeing speed bump) exhibiting smooth-body flow separation are performed. Predictions of surface pressure and skin friction, compared against DNS and experimental data, show improved accuracy from DTCSM in comparison to existing static coefficient (Vreman) and dynamic Smagorinsky model. The computational cost of performing LES with this model is up to 15% higher than the dynamic Smagorinsky model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Proactive Assignment Strategy With Human Choice Models for Boosting Pooled Rideshare Service

This study analyzes various human factors considerations in estimating discounts for pooled rideshare trips. The discounts are utilized in an optimization-based rideshare assignment strategy (proactive strategy) and compared against each other, as well as a heuristic strategy attempting to replicate current real-world pooling rates. Simulations within Austin, Texas and Greenville, South Carolina, reveal the proactive strategy’s ability to increase average vehicle occupancy by 0.23 persons/mile in Austin and 0.52 persons/mile in Greenville. A significant ability to decrease trip rejections and increase profitability is also observed. Finally, the strengths of particular combinations of factors are discussed relative to their effectiveness in each region.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The influence of increasing atmospheric CO 2 , temperature, and vapor pressure deficit on seawater-induced tree mortality

We report increasing seawater exposure is killing coastal trees globally, with expectations of accelerating mortality with rising sea levels. However, the impact of concomitant changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, temperature, and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) on seawater-induced tree mortality is uncertain. We examined the mechanisms of seawater-induced mortality under varying climate scenarios using a photosynthetic gain and hydraulic cost optimization model validated against observations in a mature stand of Sitka-spruce (Picea sitchensis) trees in the Pacific Northwest, USA, that were dying from recent seawater exposure. The simulations matched well with observations of photosynthesis, transpiration, nonstructural carbohydrates concentrations, leaf water potential, the percentage loss of xylem conductivity, and stand-level mortality rates. The simulations suggest that seawater-induced mortality could decrease by ~16.7% with increasing atmospheric CO 2 levels due to reduced risk of carbon starvation. Conversely, rising VPD could increase mortality by ~5.6% because of increasing risk of hydraulic failure. Across all scenarios, seawater-induced mortality was driven by hydraulic failure in the first two years after seawater exposure began, with carbon starvation becoming more important in subsequent years. Changing CO 2 and climate appear unlikely to have a significant impact on coastal tree mortality under rising sea levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FASTSim™ (Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator) [SWR-20-101 and SWR-12-07]

The Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim™) provides a simple way to compare powertrains and estimate the impact of technology improvements on light-, medium-, and heavy-duty vehicle efficiency, performance, cost, and battery life. This extremely fast simulation tool features a streamlined user interface and can rapidly perform a variety of tasks using basic computing resources: • less than 0.1 second to simulate second-by-second standard duty cycles • less than 10 seconds to estimate vehicle efficiency, fuel economy, acceleration, battery life, and cost • less than 5 minutes to perform powertrain comparisons of efficiency and cost. FASTSim models a variety of vehicle powertrains and fuel converter types: • Conventional vehicles - spark ignition, Atkinson, diesel, and hybrid diesel • Electric-drive vehicles - hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and all-electric • Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The default model includes a variety of vehicles and duty cycles and an option for adding additional vehicles and custom cycles: • Packaged with more than 20 vehicles • User interface enables addition of more vehicles • Includes standard U.S. drive cycles as well as European and Japanese cycles. FASTSim is available for download in Microsoft Excel and Python formats here: https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/fastsim.html

Baker, Chad↗

Scaling trends for balance-of-system costs at land-based wind power plants: Opportunities for innovations in foundation and erection

Wind power plant sizes, hub heights, and turbine ratings have increased since 2008 to optimize the cost and performance of wind power; however, the limits of these economies of scale remain unclear. Here, we explore how the costs incurred to install turbines at a wind power plant—the balance-of-system (BOS) costs—scale with turbine rating, hub height, and plant size. We also investigate how these changes in BOS costs influence the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). We show that increasing the plant size from 150 to 400 MW could reduce the BOS costs by 21%. We also show that if the foundation costs decreased by 50%, building a wind power plant with 5-MW turbines (having rotor diameters of 166 m and hub heights of 120 m) could decrease the LCOE by 5%. These results could help inform future BOS cost-reduction opportunities and thereby reduce future capital costs for land-based wind power.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Impacts of Price Formation Efforts Considering High Renewable Penetration Levels and System Resource Adequacy Targets

Future markets with very high penetrations of renewable energy could have many low- to zero-cost periods, which would reduce energy revenues for the generation fleet. This can impact the ability of resources that are needed for long-term reliability to recover operating and capital costs. This paper explores the impact of an alternative pricing mechanism, relaxed minimum pricing, on revenue sufficiency on existing and future resource mixes, including those with high penetrations of wind and solar. This study evaluates eight scenarios encompassing three different sensitivity categories: (1) one alternative pricing mechanism versus traditional LMP pricing, (2) high versus low renewable penetration levels, and (3) using a resource mix that has been adjusted to a preset resource adequacy target versus one that contains a full set of resources. Results show renewable penetration has a greater impact on pricing and resulting profits than does the adjusted resource mix, the two pricing methods have modest variations in profits, and prices under the higher renewable penetration case were higher than under low renewable penetration. These conclusions are not intended to be direct predictions for future outcomes but rather to lead to additional research on the impacts of pricing on investment incentives and future resource adequacy targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Photovoltaic (PV) Module Technologies: 2020 Benchmark Costs and Technology Evolution Framework Results

This report benchmarks 2020 PV module minimum sustainable price (MSP) via bottom-up manufacturing cost analysis, for established PV technologies in mass production, including crystalline silicon, cadmium telluride (CdTe), and copper indium gallium (di)selenide. We provide technology roadmaps to additional MSP reductions for these PV technologies. Separately, we consider III-V and perovskite PV technologies which are currently in small-scale or pilot production. Finally, this report uses a technology evolution framework (TEF) to analyze drivers of levelized cost of energy reductions, including installed system cost - which is heavily influenced by module price - as well as service life and annual energy yield.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Evolving Role of Extreme Weather Events in the U.S. Power System with High Levels of Variable Renewable Energy

As weather-dependent renewable generation grows, it is important for power system planning to understand the broad trends and correlations between weather, renewable resources, and load. The traditional planning, performed by utilities and system operators, includes the study of system resource adequacy during peak load periods in the summer and winter to ensure the generation and transmission system is appropriate to meet load. But in a power grid with a high penetration of variable renewable energy (i.e., wind and solar), periods of high risk to system resource adequacy may no longer correspond only to hours of peak load. In particular, high shares of variable renewable energy, even when well-forecasted to inform system operations, can further complicate the stress extreme weather events already place on the grid. They also may lead to changes to the types of weather conditions that are most problematic to system operations and resource adequacy due to widespread and extended deficits of wind and solar generation. Accordingly, the focus of reliability assessments in long-term planning studies may need to evolve in the coming years to more fully incorporate weather events that lead to these deficits. This report seeks to identify these new weather events and understand the characteristics of the events that lead to system risk of future systems with higher penetrations variable renewable energy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Great Lakes Wind Energy Challenges and Opportunities Assessment

Many issues associated with wind development in the Great Lakes will require solutions different from those developed for offshore wind in ocean states and may not fully benefit from the industry learnings of nearby states. As a result, technology readiness and cost reduction for Great Lakes Wind (GLW) energy generation is likely to be delayed relative to other regions without a substantial, targeted GLW research campaign, and proactive stakeholder engagement in the region at all levels. Failure to conduct the necessary research to lower GLW costs in the near term could limit its contribution to the Nation's decarbonization goals by 2035, and could potentially raise long term energy prices in Great Lakes states if demand for renewable energy continues to accelerate. The overall objective of a research program such as that described in this report would be to enable the realization of commercial GLW before 2035. With the aim of ensuring that prospective development of GLW is conducted efficiently, safely, and coordinated in the best interests of the local residents and stakeholders, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO) tasked the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to assist in (a) developing an improved understanding of offshore wind power's development potential in the Great Lakes, (b) identifying the key issues that need to be resolved for this potential to be achieved, and (c) defining a comprehensive research program to address and resolve these issues. This report presents the results of NREL's effort to address these needs.

cost modeling↗

Designing Hydropower Flows to Balance Energy and Environmental Needs (HydroWIRES Topic A Final Project Report)

Hydropower is expected to play a new role in the US electricity grid as more variable renewable energy sources like wind and solar come online. Wind and solar generation increase fluctuations in electrical supply increasing the value of flexible generation sources that can quickly ramp generation up and down. The flexible generation hydropower can provide as well as the ancillary services (e.g., frequency and voltage regulation and reserves, black start capability) it provides for balancing and stabilizing the power grid are predicted to be of increased value in these future grid scenarios. Yet, the flexibility of hydropower may come with environmental costs due to up- and down-ramping of hydropower plants (i.e., quickly increasing or decreasing generation flows, respectively) which may strand fish, dewater or scour fish nests, alter habitat, or create unsafe recreational conditions that may be unacceptable to participants in the hydropower regulatory process. These types of environmental impacts are often mitigated through environmental flow requirements that specify minimum or maximum flow releases, or ramp-rates changes allowed at a hydropower facility. While it is not currently known to what degree electrical grid reliability could be affected by environmental flow requirements, gaining a better understanding of these interactions before the grid becomes more deeply decarbonized can help define what policy, regulation, or infrastructure may be needed to support the clean energy transition. As the future grid will rely on hydropower to provide both flexibility and robust environmental protections, the analyses and tools described in this report are centered on making mechanistic linkages between energy and the environment in hydropower systems. This understanding of energy-environment linkages can provide the foundational understanding needed to quantitatively assess the trade-offs between the increased generation flexibility that hydropower will be expected to provide and the environmental impacts of this flexibility. This report seeks to provide an objective foundation for building future science and tools that can be used by a broad spectrum of the hydropower community that is involved in licensing or environmental regulatory proceedings tasked with balancing energy and environmental objectives through flow management.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Getting Beyond Widgets: Performance of Efficient Indoor Air Quality System Retrofit Packages for Schools A report on the modeled energy, greenhouse gas, and cost savings of several multi-measure retrofit packages for energy efficiency and indoor air quality in primary schools

School facilities are often underfunded with aging and poorly maintained HVAC and lighting systems. Most existing school buildings stand to benefit significantly from retrofits in terms of energy, cost, and emissions savings. Ventilation and indoor air quality (IAQ), which are important aspects of a healthy and productive learning environment, can also be enhanced by some energy efficiency measures (EEMs). Packaging energy efficiency and IAQ systems retrofits may represent a golden opportunity to improve performance in this critical building sector.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗