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DOE OSTI2025

Regional-Scale Modeling Parameterizations for Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation from Isoprene Epoxydiols: Experimentally Based Evaluation and Optimization

Isoprene is an abundant volatile organic compound emitted from broadleaf forests. Under low nitric oxide concentrations, isoprene is photochemically oxidized to form gas-phase isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX). In the presence of acidified sulfate aerosols, IEPOX enhances the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation. Predictions of IEPOX-SOA in regional-scale models, e.g., the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ), are uncertain due to homogeneous aerosol assumptions, underpredictions of water uptake (hygroscopicity), and aerosol surface area. Here, we used experimental measurements of IEPOX-SOA tracers, 2-methyltetrols (2-MT) and 2-methyltetrol sulfates (2-MTS), formed at initial IEPOX-to-inorganic sulfate ratios ranging from 1–10.5, at ∼50% relative humidity to constrain key IEPOX-SOA parameters: phase separation, organic shell diffusivity (D org ), acidity, hygroscopic growth, mass accommodation, and kinetics. The base CMAQ parametrization overpredicted experimental IEPOX-SOA with an average normalized mean bias (NMB average ) of 1.63. CMAQ with phase separation underpredicted IEPOX-SOA (NMB average = −0.71). Using the phase-separated model, CMAQ model performance was optimized (NMB average = 0.077) with an increased D org = 2 × 10 –16 m 2 s –1 and increased rate constants (k 2-MT = 1 × 10 –3 M 2 s –1 , k 2-MTS = 8.83 × 10 –3 M 2 s –1 ). The optimized model explicitly accounted for hygroscopic growth by utilizing experimentally derived growth rates, improving aerosol surface area predictions. Our model highlights the importance of the aerosol mixing state (homogeneous versus phase-separated), aerosol size dynamics, and hygroscopic growth in modeling heterogeneous reactive uptake of IEPOX.

aerosols↗

DOE OSTI2022

A numerical approach for detecting switch-like bistability in mass action chemical reaction networks with conservation laws

Theoretical analysis of signaling pathways can provide a substantial amount of insight into their function. One particular area of research considers signaling pathways capable of assuming two or more stable states given the same amount of signaling ligand. This phenomenon of bistability can give rise to switch-like behavior, a mechanism that governs cellular decision making. Investigation of whether or not a signaling pathway can confer bistability and switch-like behavior, without knowledge of specific kinetic rate constant values, is a mathematically challenging problem. Recently a technique based on optimization has been introduced, which is capable of finding example parameter values that confer switch-like behavior for a given pathway. Although this approach has made it possible to analyze moderately sized pathways, it is limited to reaction networks that presume a uniterminal structure. It is this limited structure we address by developing a general technique that applies to any mass action reaction network with conservation laws. In this paper we developed a generalized method for detecting switch-like bistable behavior in any mass action reaction network with conservation laws. The method involves (1) construction of a constrained optimization problem using the determinant of the Jacobian of the underlying rate equations, (2) minimization of the objective function to search for conditions resulting in a zero eigenvalue, (3) computation of a confidence level that describes if the global minimum has been found and (4) evaluation of optimization values, using either numerical continuation or directly simulating the ODE system, to verify that a bistability region exists. The generalized method has been tested on three motifs known to be capable of bistability. We have developed a variation of an optimization-based method for the discovery of bistability, which is not limited to uniterminal chemical reaction networks. Successful completion of the method provides an S-shaped bifurcation diagram, which indicates that the network acts as a bistable switch for the given optimization parameters.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Climate Influences on Capacity Expansion Planning with Application to the Western U.S

Electric power system planners utilize a variety of planning tools to inform decisions concerning generation and transmission additions to the electric grid, the need for operational changes, and to evaluate potential stressors on the system. Numerous factors contribute to the planning process including projected fuel and technology costs, policy and load profiles. There is also a growing recognition of the interdependency of the electric grid with other natural and engineered systems. Here we explore how future climate change and hydropower operability might influence decisions related to electricity capacity expansion planning and operations. To do so we assemble a multi-model framework. Specifically, water resource modeling is used to simulate climate impacts on future water supply for thermoelectric and hydropower generation. Separately, temperature impacts on electricity load are evaluated. Together, these climate factors spatially constrain a capacity expansion model that projects generation and transmission additions to the grid. The projected new capacity-builds are then evaluated on their operations, reliability, and cost under average and extreme climate conditions using production cost modeling. This coupled framework is demonstrated on the electric grid in the Western U.S., supporting capacity expansion planning by WECC, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) regional entity responsible for reliability assurance of the Western Interconnection. This region was selected in part because the West is unique in that it has high potential for renewable penetrations and is experiencing large retirements/displacements of baseload resources, primarily coal, leading to possible operational challenges in terms of changing resource mix and the need for resource flexibility. Toward this challenge, planning scenarios encompass a range of alternative energy, climate and drought futures. In this context we explore answers to two strategic questions: 1) How does changing climate influence electricity expansion planning (generation and transmission) and future operations, including type and capacity of new builds, system reliability, cost and environmental impacts? 2) How does the representation of hydropower in the modeling framework influence the evaluation of bulk power system operations? Results indicate that climate has a measurable influence on recommendations concerning the capacity, type and location of new generation and transmission additions, with up to 17 GW additional capacity needed by 2038 to meet peak loads (~6.6% increase over capacity-builds based on historical climate). The extent of additional infrastructure needs is strongly influenced by future water availability for hydropower and the potential deployment of demand response technologies. Systems designed for future climate conditions were found to maintain high system reliability under a range of electricity and water availability scenarios (including significant drought), with minimal system curtailments. Additional capacity needs due to higher load tend to increase cumulative 20-year investment and operating costs by $\$$5-$\$$17 billion and generation costs increase by 9 to 19%. Finally, changing the representation of hydropower flexibility has a relatively small influence on capacity expansion in the Western Interconnection through 2038, but hydropower flexibility impacts generation costs to a similar extent as climate.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Search for Continuous and Transient Neutrino Emission Associated with IceCube’s Highest-energy Tracks: An 11 yr Analysis

IceCube alert events are neutrinos with a moderate-to-high probability of having astrophysical origin. In this study, we analyze 11 yr of IceCube data and investigate 122 alert events and a selection of high-energy tracks detected between 2009 and the end of 2021. This high-energy event selection (alert events + high-energy tracks) has an average probability of ≥0.5 of being of astrophysical origin. We search for additional continuous and transient neutrino emission within the high-energy events' error regions. We find no evidence for significant continuous neutrino emission from any of the alert event directions. The only locally significant neutrino emission is the transient emission associated with the blazar TXS 0506+056, with a local significance of 3σ, which confirms previous IceCube studies. When correcting for 122 test positions, the global p-value is 0.156 and compatible with the background hypothesis. We constrain the total continuous flux emitted from all 122 test positions at 100 TeV to be below 1.2 × 10 –15 (TeV cm 2 s) –1 at 90% confidence assuming an E –2 spectrum. This corresponds to 4.5% of IceCube's astrophysical diffuse flux. Overall, we find no indication that alert events in general are linked to lower-energetic continuous or transient neutrino emission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Influences of shock imprinting on mix in a 3D-printed porous media

Mixing of materials in porous media can cause a significant impact on fusion yield as previously demonstrated by the National Ignition Facility (NIF) MARBLE Campaign. Initially, the reactants are separated, with deuterium in the lattice struts and a tritium gas fill in the voids. Lattice parameters such as the strut thickness and relative pitch, provide a control for the mix parameters in the experiment. Los Alamos National Laboratory’s (LANL) BOSQUE project looks to better understand how the mix of the reactants and shell materials impact the fusion burn and resultant yield on various laser platforms. xRAGE’s Eulerian hydrodynamics and adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) provide the unique ability to study the impacts of multiscale features of complex lattice structures. This modeling provides the ability to measure shock front variations as the wave progress’ through a given media. Initial conditions of the lattice are essential to accurately model mix and burn measured by experiment. By varying the initial orientation and densities of these lattice regions the early time dynamics of how the shock is launched into the system is changed and advocates for the study of resulting effects. In this work, we will study the sensitivities of shock effects in varying 3D printed geometric systems and how these shocks alter the structure and mix in the lattice. We will discuss both preliminary experimental results and simulations to help plan and constrain future experiments where we will study the impact of different lattice geometries and lattice bulk densities. This work concludes with the relative impacts of lattice geometries on shock speeds at different bulk densities and the resultant mix widths due to those shock interactions. We see agreement with theory at the higher end of our bulk density study, however, as we approach lower bulk density systems the dynamics of these interactions begin to change.

2 Photon Polymerization↗

DOE OSTI2022

A shared-mobility-based framework for evacuation planning and operations under forecast uncertainty

To meet evacuation needs from carless populations who need personalized assistance to evacuate safely, in this article we propose a ridesharing-based evacuation program that recruits volunteer drivers before a disaster strikes, and then matches volunteer drivers with evacuees once demand is realized. Here we optimize resource planning and evacuation operations under uncertain spatiotemporal demand, and construct a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer program to ensure high demand fulfillment rates. We consider three formulations to improve the number of evacuees served, by minimizing an expected penalty cost, imposing a probabilistic constraint, and enforcing a constraint on the conditional value at risk of the total number of unserved evacuees, respectively. We discuss the benefits and disadvantages of the different risk measures used in the three formulations, given certain carless population sizes and the variety of evacuation modes available. We also develop a heuristic approach to provide quick, dynamic and conservative solutions. We demonstrate the performance of our approaches using five different networks of varying sizes based on regions of Charleston County, South Carolina, an area that experienced a mandatory evacuation order during Hurricane Florence, and utilize real demographic data and hourly traffic count data to estimate the demand distribution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulating energetic particle losses in JET plasmas with a reverse integration biasing scheme

We report that an integrated energetic particle transport model has been constructed in JET plasmas constrained by experimental fast ion loss measurements. The model incorporates a synthetic fast ion loss detector identical to JET’s thin-foil Faraday cup fast ion loss detector array. The loss model combines analyses from the TRANSP and ORBIT-kick codes with enhanced features for producing the synthetic diagnostic. Extensions to the ORBIT code framework allow a full-orbit representation within the vacuum region that can map particles directly to an installed detector geometry. Since synthetic fast ion loss detectors are plagued by weak loss statistics, a novel reverse integration biasing scheme has been implemented to boost computational efficiency. The model is validated against experimental loss measurements induced by long-lived kink modes and is found to be in good agreement. This confirms the development of a fully integrated transport/loss model which can be quantitatively verified against experiment allowing for future validation and predictive studies. The model is particularly useful for more complicated plasma scenarios that involve multiple fast ion species such as JET’s 2021 DT-campaign.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Design of Resilient Electric Distribution Systems for Remote Communities: Surgical Load Management using Smart Meters

This paper describes a systematic process of designing resilient electric distribution systems and microgrids using smart meters for surgical load management (SLM) as part of Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI). The work focuses on selection approach, integration, and interoperability aspects for AMI in microgrids. SLM is proposed as a granular control methodology for serving selective critical loads across different distribution feeders in the system during extreme events. The surgical load shedding as well as load pick-up provides a robust approach for maximizing critical load served in a resource-constrained electric distribution system or a microgrid. We present the case of a 20 MW islanded microgrid in Cordova, AK, USA, which is the demonstration site for field validation of resilience enhancement technologies for the DOE-funded Grid Modernization project RADIANCE. Cordova microgrid is an islanded distribution grid that provides an environment to prove the approach, and the techniques may also be applicable to other regional distribution systems.

microgrids↗

DOE OSTI2023

Otolith 87 Sr / 86 Sr identifies natal origin, movement and life history of Burbot Lota lota in the Kootenai River following 45 years of impoundment

Abstract Hydropower has long been an effective form of renewable energy, but the development of the resource has negatively impacted fishes throughout the world. Formulating recovery plans to mitigate these effects requires a firm understanding of species‐specific provenance, life history and life stage habitat requirements. However, the importance of this information is often only recognised after a substantial population decline, when obtaining it becomes demographically challenging. We provide a case study for this scenario and present a post hoc approach to gain insight into these critical data gaps for Burbot Lota lota in the upper Kootenai River in Montana and British Columbia. The population once supported a robust tribal and recreational harvest but declined following impoundment and these fisheries have remained closed or curtailed for nearly 20 years. The reasons for the decline are unknown and actions to assist recovery have been constrained by limited information regarding natal origin, life history and habitat use. We addressed this issue using strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) in otoliths collected over four decades in Lake Koocanusa, the reservoir on the Kootenai River above Libby Dam. Due to the geologic heterogeneity of the basin and resulting variation in water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr, the assignment probability for Burbot to their region of natal origin approached unity. Otolith 87 Sr/ 86 Sr also indicated the population was comprised of mainstem‐ and tributary‐origin forms and their relative abundance changed over time. Mainstem Burbot was most abundant during the 1970s and 2000s, whereas tributary forms dominated between these periods. We suggest ecosystem changes following impoundment contributed to this shift in life history forms and the overall decline of the population. Our findings underscore the need for additional investigations of these impacts to guide restoration efforts.

Dunnigan, James L.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Sifting for a Stream: The Morphology of the $300S$ Stellar Stream

Stellar streams are sensitive laboratories for understanding the small-scale structure in our Galaxy’s gravitational field. Here, we analyze the morphology of the $300S$ stellar stream, which has an eccentric, retrograde orbit and thus could be an especially powerful probe of both baryonic and dark substructures within the Milky Way. Due to extensive background contamination from the Sagittarius stream (Sgr), we perform an analysis combining Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey photometry, $Gaia$ DR3 proper motions, and spectroscopy from the Southern Stellar Stream Spectroscopic Survey (S 5 ). We redetermine the stream coordinate system and distance gradient, then apply two approaches to describe $300S$ ’s morphology. In the first, we analyze stars from $Gaia$ using proper motions to remove Sgr. In the second, we generate a simultaneous model of $300S$ and Sgr based purely on photometric information. Both approaches agree within their respective domains and describe the stream over a region spanning 33° . Overall, $300S$ has three well-defined density peaks and smooth variations in stream width. Furthermore, $300S$ has a possible gap of ~4.7 and a kink. Dynamical modeling of the kink implies that $300S$ was dramatically influenced by the Large Magellanic Cloud. This is the first model of $300S$ ’s morphology across its entire known footprint, opening the door for deeper analysis to constrain the structures of the Milky Way.

Milky Way galaxy↗

DOE OSTI2021

Design of Resilient Electric Distribution Systems for Remote Communities: Surgical Load Management Using Smart Meters: Preprint

microgrids↗

DOE OSTI2020

Direct prediction of nonlinear tearing mode saturation using a variational principle

It is shown that the variational principle of multi-region relaxed magnetohydrodynamics (MRxMHD) can be used to predict the stability and nonlinear saturation of tearing modes in strong guide field configurations without resolving the dynamics and without explicit dependence on the plasma resistivity. While the magnetic helicity is not a good invariant for tearing modes, we show that the saturated tearing mode can be obtained as an MRxMHD state of a priori unknown helicity by appropriately constraining the current profile. The predicted saturated island width in a tearing-unstable force-free slab equilibrium is shown to reproduce the theoretical scaling at small values of Δ' and the scaling obtained from resistive magnetohydrodynamics simulations at large Δ'.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Investigation of Delayed Neutron Sensitivities for Several ICSBEP Benchmarks using MCNP

The effective delayed neutron (β$_{eff}$) is a very important parameter for reactor and criticality applications. This parameter is equal to the difference in reactivity between delayed critical ($k_{eff}$ = 1, which requires both prompt and delayed neutrons to achieve criticality) and prompt critical ($k_p$ = 1, which requires only prompt neutrons to achieve criticality). This is often referred to as the delayed critical "window" (the region of criticality between delayed and prompt critical). β$_{eff}$ is a reactor kinetics parameters and depends on the nuclides in the system that undergo fission as well as the spectral characteristics of the system. Measurements of β$_{eff}$ have been performed for many criticality experiments. The EUCLID (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in nuclear Data) project at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) aims to constrain nuclear data by using a suite of measurement types beyond $k_{eff}$. Our team has recently investigated the use of pulsed spheres for nuclear data validation. Several other measurement methods are also of interest, including β$_{eff}$ (investigated here) and reactivity coefficients (investigated in a separate work at this same meeting). One focus of our work is to determine if other methods are complimentary to the critical experiments already utilized for nuclear data validation. This is important because if a method has similar sensitivities then it will not be particularly useful for nuclear data validation as it will provide the same information as the critical experiments already being used. Here "similar" could refer to several characteristics, one being the shape of a sensitivity profile over energy. In the future, these methods will be utilized (with both existing and new experiments) in machine learning algorithms for nuclear validation, similar to what is currently done for criticality experiments. In order to use a measurement type for nuclear validation, it is necessary to obtain cross-section sensitivities for that parameter. This work looks at one approach to estimate β$_{eff}$ sensitivities by utilizing $k_{eff}$ sensitivities within Monte Carlo N-Particle ® Code Version 6.2. This is applied to several criticality benchmarks. Results are compared and the benefits and limitations of this approach are discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Constrained Tomographic Reconstructions of Gamma Scans in AGR 5/6/7 Capsules

We demonstrate a novel approach to locate potential areas of interest within individual capsules in the Advanced Gas Reactor 5/6/7 experiment. Individual capsules from the experiment have been scanned for gamma-emitting radioisotopes using the precision gamma spectrometer at Idaho National Laboratory’s hot fuel examination facility. Only a small number of scans were available, fewer than ten scan angles as opposed to a typical three hundred, so a geometry-informed algebraic reconstruction technique was used to provide qualitative information on high-activity regions in the capsule. While results are non-quantitative, some qualitative conclusions are drawn.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Maritime Battery Electrification Simulator (MariBES) v1

MariBES is a Python-based software designed for calculating emissions and energy consumption in maritime transportation. This software is capable of performing calculations for multiple vessels, facilitating emission analysis at regional, national, and international scales. It also allows for the examination of energy consumption under various resource such as heavy fuel oil, diesel, and battery-electric, enabling the assessment of different decarbonization strategies in the maritime sector. MariBES utilizes public data on ship activities combined with detailed vessel specifications, significantly enhancing the accuracy of its simulations. This approach marks a considerable advancement over previous models that were constrained by limited spatial and temporal resolution. It features a temporal resolution based on 5-minute intervals and a spatial resolution using precise coordinates.

Moon, HeeSeung↗

DOE OSTI2024

On the Sensitivity of Coastal Hypoxia to Its External Physical Forcings

Abstract The development of low‐oxygen zones threatening marine life (hypoxia) occurs annually in multiple coastal regions of the world. The largest estuary of the continental United States, the Chesapeake Bay, typically has ≈10 km 3 of water with dioxygen concentrations <3 mg L −1 in July. As numerical methods for refining model resolutions in targeted areas are becoming common, there is interest in assessing the feasibility of simulating coastal hazards such as hypoxia in Earth System Models (ESMs). These coupled models are typically not constrained by observations and thus likely to feature systematic biases in their land, atmosphere, or ocean components. This study relies on four numerical experiments to evaluate the sensitivity of Chesapeake Bay hypoxia to changes or biases in its external physical forcings. Hypoxia exhibits only a minor decrease (−1.6%) after reducing the Bay's terrestrial freshwater discharge by 9.5% (but keeping terrestrial nutrient loadings the same). Changes in freshwater discharges have their largest impact on hypoxia during one extreme event (−37% during 2011 tropical storm Lee). Similarly, changing oceanic conditions on the shelf or their temporal frequency impact hypoxia by only 5%–6%, indicating that the latter is predominantly dictated by local conditions. Although these results are promising from the perspective of ESMs, additional components of ESMs will need to be evaluated before general conclusions can be reached. We notably speculate that the Bay's hypoxia would exhibit higher sensitivity to other forcings not examined here, notably air temperatures and nutrient loadings.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2022

Colour gradients of low-redshift galaxies in the DESI Legacy Imaging Survey

ABSTRACT Radial colour gradients within galaxies arise from gradients of stellar age, metallicity, and dust reddening. Large samples of colour gradients from wide-area imaging surveys can complement smaller integral-field spectroscopy data sets and can be used to constrain galaxy formation models. Here, we measure colour gradients for low-redshift galaxies (z < 0.1) using photometry from the DESI Legacy Imaging Survey DR9. Our sample comprises ∼93 000 galaxies with spectroscopic redshifts and ∼574 000 galaxies with photometric redshifts. We focus on gradients across a radial range 0.5Reff to Reff, which corresponds to the inner disc of typical late-type systems at low redshift. This region has been the focus of previous statistical studies of colour gradients and has recently been explored by spectroscopic surveys such as MaNGA. We find that the colour gradients of most galaxies in our sample are negative (redder towards the centre), consistent with the literature. We investigate empirical relationships between colour gradient, average g − r and r − z colour, Mr, M⋆, and sSFR. Trends of gradient strength with Mr (M⋆) show an inflection around Mr ∼ −21 ($\log _{10} \, M_\star /\mathrm{M_\odot }\sim 10.5$). Below this mass, colour gradients become steeper with increasing M⋆, whereas colour gradients in more massive galaxies become shallower. We find that positive gradients (bluer stars at smaller radii) are typical for galaxies of $M_{\star }\sim 10^{8}\, \mathrm{M_\odot }$. We compare our results to age and metallicity gradients in two data sets derived from fits of different stellar population libraries to MaNGA spectra, but find no clear consensus explanation for the trends we observe. Both MaNGA data sets seem to imply a significant contribution from dust reddening, in particular, to explain the flatness of colour gradients along the red sequence.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Higgs flavor phenomenology in a supersymmetric left-right model with parity

In this paper, we focus on the supersymmetric model with left-right (LR) symmetry, that is especially proposed in our previous work [ 1 ]. In this model, there are four Higgs doublets in order to realize the Standard Model (SM) fermion masses and the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix. The heavy Higgs doublets unavoidably have flavor changing couplings to the SM fermions and induce flavor-changing neutral currents at tree level. We study broader parameter space than the previous work with including the renormalization group corrections to the Yukawa couplings between the LR breaking scale, $ \mathcal{O} $ (10 13 ) GeV, and the supersymmetry breaking scales, $ \mathcal{O} $ (100) TeV. The CP violating observable in K – $ \overline{K} $ mixing, ϵ K , strongly constrains the model, so that heavy Higgs mass should be heavier than $ \mathcal{O} $ (100) TeV. We study the lepton flavor violating (LFV) processes setting heavy Higgs masses to be 170 TeV. The branching ratios of μ → 3 e and the μ – e conversion can be larger than 10 - 16 that could be covered by the future experiments. We also study the degree of fine-tuning in the parameter region that predicts testable LFV processes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗