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At least 469 records · Page 26

Inference offers a metric to constrain dynamical models of neutrino flavor transformation

The multimessenger astrophysics of compact objects presents a vast range of environments where neutrino flavor transformation may occur and may be important for nucleosynthesis, dynamics, and a detected neutrino signal. Development of efficient techniques for surveying flavor evolution solution spaces in these diverse environments, which augment and complement existing sophisticated computational tools, could leverage progress in this field. To this end we continue our exploration of statistical data assimilation (SDA) to identify solutions to a small-scale model of neutrino flavor transformation. SDA is a machine learning formula wherein a dynamical model is assumed to generate any measured quantities. Specifically, we use an optimization formulation of SDA wherein a cost function is extremized via the variational method. Regions of state space in which the extremization identifies the global minimum of the cost function will correspond to parameter regimes in which a model solution can exist. Our example study seeks to infer the flavor transformation histories of two monoenergetic neutrino beams coherently interacting with each other and with a matter background. We require that the solution be consistent with measured neutrino flavor fluxes at the point of detection, and with constraints placed upon the flavor content at various locations along their trajectories, such as the point of emission, and the locations of the Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein resonances. We show how the procedure efficiently identifies solution regimes and rules out regimes where solutions are infeasible. Overall, results in this work intimate the promise of this “variational annealing” methodology to efficiently probe an array of fundamental questions that traditional numerical simulation codes render difficult to access.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Model-independent measurement of the Higgs boson associated production with two jets and decaying to a pair of W bosons in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

A model-independent measurement of the differential production cross section of the Higgs boson decaying into a pair of W bosons, with a final state including two jets produced in association, is presented. In the analysis, events are selected in which the decay products of the two W bosons consist of an electron, a muon, and missing transverse momentum. The model independence of the measurement is maximized by employing a discriminating variable, developed through machine learning, that is agnostic to the signal hypothesis. The analysis is based on proton-proton collision data at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV collected with the CMS detector from 2016–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 . The production cross section is measured as a function of the difference in azimuthal angle between the two jets. The differential cross section measurements are used to constrain Higgs boson couplings within the standard model effective field theory framework.

Hadron-Hadron Scattering↗

From Apollo to Artemis: How Processing ANGSA Core Samples 73001/2 Can Help to Prepare for Future Sample Return Missions to the Moon and Beyond.

Introduction: Apollo Sample 73001/2 is a ~71cm long double drive tube consisting of an upper part (73002) and a lower part (73001) that contains regolith collected near Lara Crater at the Apollo 17 site, Station 3. The double drive tube is believed to have penetrated a lunar landslide deposit that was transported from the slope of the South Massif into the Taurus-Littrow Valley [1]. As part of the ANGSA (Apollo Next Generation Sample Analyses) initiative, preparing a preliminary examination (PE) catalog of 73001/2 is a crucial first step for the early identification of material types such as rock fragments and potential stratigraphy within the core. Many new curation and scientific tools such as X-ray computed tomography (XCT) [3], multi-spectral imaging [4], and gas extraction manifold with piercing tool [5-7], have been applied to the ANGSA core to benefit curation strategy, PE efforts, sample allocation to the planetary science community, and ultimately help to prepare for future sample return missions like Artemis. 73001/2 Preliminary Examination and Processing: Sample 73002 was successfully opened and extruded in Nov. 2019 and fully dissected at the end of 2021. Sample 73001 (Fig. 1) was successfully extruded in March 2022 after careful planning before opening the Core Sample Vacuum Container (CSVC) that was holding the drive tube of 73001. XCT, as part of PE, was used to scan the bottom and top part of the 73001 core tube within the CSVC prior to opening it to 1) facilitate non-destructive, rapid detection of any contamination potentials due to piercing of the CSVC during gas extraction [7]; and 2) to aid in the Artemis sample tool development and provide data on the knife edge seal of the CSVC. This knowledge will help us connect the mechanics of the implemented design (i.e., XCT data) to the performance of the seal (i.e., data on the gas samples will tell us how well the seal preserved the volatile record of lunar samples). Both type of information will feed forward into Artemis tool and storage strategies for future samples. Results and Lessons learned: The XCT data of the CSVC and core tube within showed that the bottom Teflon cap was not pierced during gas extraction (Fig. 1c) and thus, the sample integrity remained guaranteed during piercing and subsequent gas extraction. However, the XCT scan of the top of the core (Fig. 1b) revealed that the drive tube was overfilled with lunar soil and the tool that keeps the soil constrained within the drive tube was not fully deployed. These preliminary data allowed us to implement the necessary steps to prevent loss of sample integrity, including any potential stratigraphy shifts during extrusion. Processing Apollo core 73001/2, creating an informative PE catalog, and applying new and refined tools and technologies for sample analyses are invaluable activities that will assist in circumventing any potential pitfalls, aid in the characterization of samples, and help in the assessment of how well any lunar material has been collected and preserved in the past. This will aid in designing future sample collections and curation procedures and help to prepare for future human exploration and sampling missions such as Artemis. References: [1] Schmitt H. (2017) Icarus 298, 2-33. [3] Zeigler et al. (2021) LPSC 52nd, #2632; [4] Sun et al. (2021), LPSC 52nd, #1789; [5] Parai et al. (2021), LPSC 52nd #2665; [6] Schild et al. (2021) LPSC 52nd #1888; [7] McDonald (2022) ESL 2022.

ANGSA↗

Adaptable Constrained Genetic Programming: Extensions and Applications

An evolutionary algorithm applies evolution-based principles to problem solving. To solve a problem, the user defines the space of potential solutions, the representation space. Sample solutions are encoded in a chromosome-like structure. The algorithm maintains a population of such samples, which undergo simulated evolution by means of mutation, crossover, and survival of the fittest principles. Genetic Programming (GP) uses tree-like chromosomes, providing very rich representation suitable for many problems of interest. GP has been successfully applied to a number of practical problems such as learning Boolean functions and designing hardware circuits. To apply GP to a problem, the user needs to define the actual representation space, by defining the atomic functions and terminals labeling the actual trees. The sufficiency principle requires that the label set be sufficient to build the desired solution trees. The closure principle allows the labels to mix in any arity-consistent manner. To satisfy both principles, the user is often forced to provide a large label set, with ad hoc interpretations or penalties to deal with undesired local contexts. This unfortunately enlarges the actual representation space, and thus usually slows down the search. In the past few years, three different methodologies have been proposed to allow the user to alleviate the closure principle by providing means to define, and to process, constraints on mixing the labels in the trees. Last summer we proposed a new methodology to further alleviate the problem by discovering local heuristics for building quality solution trees. A pilot system was implemented last summer and tested throughout the year. This summer we have implemented a new revision, and produced a User's Manual so that the pilot system can be made available to other practitioners and researchers. We have also designed, and partly implemented, a larger system capable of dealing with much more powerful heuristics.

Janikow, Cezary Z.↗

The Spatiotemporal Evolution of Granular Microslip Precursors to Laboratory Earthquakes

Laboratory earthquake experiments provide important observational constraints for our understanding of earthquake physics. Here we leverage continuous waveform data from a network of piezoceramic sensors to study the spatial and temporal evolution of microslip activity during a shear experiment with synthetic fault gouge. We combine machine learning techniques with ray theoretical seismology to detect, associate, and locate tens of thousands of microslip events within the gouge layer. Microslip activity is concentrated near the center of the system but is highly variable in space and time. While microslip activity rate increases as failure approaches, the spatiotemporal evolution can differ substantially between stick-slip cycles. These results illustrate that even within a single, well-constrained laboratory experiment, the dynamics of earthquake nucleation can be highly complex.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Survey of CubeSat Deployable Structures: The First Decade

In the past decade CubeSats have made their way into the spotlight. They have evolved from small, university educational opportunities, to industry and governments using them make new discoveries and monetize space. However, with the small, constrained CubeSat form factor; there is often a need to expand the CubeSat through deployable mechanisms once the satellite is in space. This paper is a survey of deployable structures and their actuating mechanisms for CubeSats. The goal of this paper is to provide the applications within which deployable structures have been used in the past for CubeSats, the mechanisms with regards to how they deploy, the lessons learned, and limitations of the various types of deployables. The inputs to this paper come from a relational database in development to track launched CubeSat missions with deployable structures. From this database we can find insightful trends. This paper specifically focuses on the first decade of CubeSat deployables, from 2000 to 2010.

Arya, Manan↗

Advancing 3D surface imaging: single-axis structured light illumination plenoptic camera with machine learning integration

Structured light illumination (SLI) is a configurable 3D surface imaging modality that can function largely independently of surface texture. At the same time, machine learning (ML) approaches are providing new ways to capture relevant information from SLI patterns, avoiding the need to develop advanced computer vision algorithms. By projecting an optical pattern onto a surface and measuring the apparent distortion of that pattern, one can determine surface topography from a single image. Common realizations of SLI 3D imaging use off-axis SLI to allow for parallax-based determination of depth; however, in constrained geometries, the ability to make single-axis measurements can be of major benefit. While plenoptic imaging (PI) cameras have long been developed for the purpose of single-axis 3D imaging, they are generally reliant on the surface texture of the measured object, thus making them unreliable in certain experimental conditions. Therefore, we present a single-axis 3D SLI plenoptic camera, which combines the single-axis benefits of PI technology while using coaxial SLI to maintain indifference to surface conditions. We also present a study of the camera capabilities paired with the development of several algorithms, including traditional feature tracking methods as well as ML methods, which are found to enhance resolution and range. We report depth sensitivity down to 0.2% $\frac{dz}{z_0}$. The single-axis SLI 3D plenoptic camera demonstrates potential applicability for in-situ topographical measurements under a wide range of conditions including, but not limited to, objects without trackable surface texture, high temperatures, and constrained geometry environments.

Imaging systems↗

CSP Plant Optimization Study for the California Power Market (“CalCSP”) (Final Technical Report)

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) with thermal energy storage offers a unique and strategic opportunity to support California’s clean energy transition. Unlike photovoltaic (PV) systems, CSP with thermal storage can generate electricity after sunset and during periods of high demand, making it a valuable complement to intermittent renewable resources. CSP also provides synchronous, inertia-contributing generation, long-duration storage, and flexible dispatch—capabilities increasingly important as thermal plants retire. This report summarizes the findings of the CSP Plant Optimization Study for the California Power Market or “CalCSP study,” which evaluated the technical, economic, environmental, and policy factors that influence the deployment of CSP technologies in California. The CalCSP study was conducted to assess how CSP can contribute to California’s long-term decarbonization goals while enhancing grid reliability, supporting local economic development, and making efficient use of land and transmission resources. It draws on detailed modeling of CSP performance and costs, site suitability analysis, policy reviews, and stakeholder engagement across utilities, regulators, developers, and community organizations. The analysis focuses on mature molten-salt tower technology and incorporates lessons learned from the global CSP fleet, distinguishing today’s CSP from earlier first-of-a-kind projects in the U.S. The findings support a more prominent role for CSP in California’s evolving clean energy landscape. With strategic planning, targeted policy support, and continued cost improvements, CSP can complement PV and batteries to deliver reliable, around-the-clock clean electricity—especially in areas with high solar resource and constrained grid capacity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Analysis and Prediction of Weather Impacted Ground Stop Operations

When the air traffic demand is expected to exceed the available airport's capacity for a short period of time, Ground Stop (GS) operations are implemented by Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Traffic Flow Management (TFM). The GS requires departing aircraft meeting specific criteria to remain on the ground to achieve reduced demands at the constrained destination airport until the end of the GS. This paper provides a high-level overview of the statistical distributions as well as causal factors for the GSs at the major airports in the United States. The GS's character, the weather impact on GSs, GS variations with delays, and the interaction between GSs and Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) are investigated. The machine learning methods are used to generate classification models that map the historical airport weather forecast, schedule traffic, and other airport conditions to implemented GS/GDP operations and the models are evaluated using the cross-validations. This modeling approach produced promising results as it yielded an 85% overall classification accuracy to distinguish the implemented GS days from the normal days without GS and GDP operations and a 71% accuracy to differentiate the GS and GDP implemented days from the GDP only days.

Analysis↗

Recent advances in integrated hydrologic models: Integration of new domains

Over the past several decades, hydrologic models have advanced from independent models of the surface and subsurface to integrated models that can capture the terrestrial hydrologic cycle within one framework. In recent years, these coupled frameworks have seen the inclusion of biogeochemical processes, ecohydrology, sedimentation and erosion, cold region hydrology, anthropogenic activities, and atmospheric processes. This expansion is the result of increased computational, data, and modeling capabilities and capacities, as well as improved understanding of the processes that drive these integrated systems. Here, in this study, we review these recent advances to integrate new processes and systems into existing terrestrial hydrologic models and highlight the significant challenges and opportunities that remain. We identify that with so many models currently available and in development, selecting the most appropriate model is difficult, and we suggest a path for new or novice modelers to find the most appropriate code based on their needs. In addition, data required to parameterize and calibrate these models can often constrain their applicability and usefulness. However, advances in environmental sensors and measurement technology, in addition to data assimilation of non-traditional data (e.g. remote sensing, qualitative data) are providing new ways of addressing this issue. As we expand hydrologic models to integrate more processes and systems, our computational demands also increase. Recent and emerging advances in computational platforms, including cloud and quantum computing, in addition to the use of machine learning to capture some processes, will continue to support the use of increasingly larger and more complex, process-based models. Finally, we highlight that it is critical to develop state-of-the-science models that are accessible to all model users, not just those applied for research and development. We encourage continued development of diverse modeling platforms, considering the user needs, data availability, and computational resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data-driven prediction of the output composition of an atmospheric pressure plasma jet

Cold atmospheric plasma (CAP) in open air hosts numerous chemical species engaged in thousands of chemical reactions. Comprehensive diagnosis of its chemical composition is important across various fields from medicine, where reactive oxygen and nitrogen play key roles, to surface modification. In applications, a centimeter-scale helium–air jet operates for minutes, featuring micrometer-sized streamers and an atmospheric pressure-induced collision frequency in the hundreds of GHz range. To address this intricate multi-scale issue, we introduce a machine learning approach: using a physics-informed neural network (PINN) to tackle the multi-scale complexities inherent in predicting the complete list of species concentrations, gas temperature, and electron temperature of a CAP jet supplied with a mixture of helium and air. Experimental measurements of O 3 , N 2 O, and NO 2 concentrations downstream of the plasma jet, combined with fundamental physics laws, the conservation of mass and charge, constrain the PINN, enabling it to predict the concentrations of all species that are not available from the experiment, along with gas and electron temperatures. The results, therefore, obey all the physical laws we provided and can have a chemical balance with the measured concentrations. In conclusion, this methodology holds promise for describing and potentially regulating complex systems with limited experimental datasets.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Data-driven prediction of scaling and ignition of inertial confinement fusion experiments

Recent advances in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) at the National Ignition Facility (NIF), including ignition and energy gain, are enabled by a close coupling between experiments and high-fidelity simulations. Neither simulations nor experiments can fully constrain the behavior of ICF implosions on their own, meaning pre- and postshot simulation studies must incorporate experimental data to be reliable. Linking past data with simulations to make predictions for upcoming designs and quantifying the uncertainty in those predictions has been an ongoing challenge in ICF research. We have developed a data-driven approach to prediction and uncertainty quantification that combines large ensembles of simulations with Bayesian inference and deep learning. The approach builds a predictive model for the statistical distribution of key performance parameters, which is jointly informed by past experiments and physics simulations. The prediction distribution captures the impact of experimental uncertainty, expert priors, design changes, and shot-to-shot variations. We have used this new capability to predict a 10× increase in ignition probability between Hybrid-E shots driven with 2.05 MJ compared to 1.9 MJ, and validated our predictions against subsequent experiments. We describe our new Bayesian postshot and prediction capabilities, discuss their application to NIF ignition and validate the results, and finally investigate the impact of data sparsity on our prediction results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Multivariate environmental and trait-based controls of transpiration in the Central Amazon Rainforest

Tropical forest tree mortality is increasing due to more severe droughts, yet our understanding of how tree traits and life strategies are linked to drought stress has been limited by measurement scarcity. The BIONTE (BIOmass and NuTrient Experiment) near Manaus, Brazil hosts one of the world’s largest sap flow installations, with sensors in 90 canopy trees across a wood density gradient monitored since June 2022. The 2023 El Niño drought provided a unique opportunity to evaluate how water availability impacts tree transpiration. An interpretable machine learning framework was used to study the complex interactions between transpiration and multiple environmental variables such as soil water availability and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and how these interactions vary with wood density and individual trees. We found varying responses of transpiration from different trees during the El Niño drought. Transpiration generally increased with temperature, with stronger effects in wetter areas and in trees with low to medium wood density. However, this response was modulated by stomatal sensitivity to VPD, which constrained transpiration under high atmospheric demand, particularly in intermediate-moisture area. The inflection in transpiration rate at high temperatures (>32°C) underscores the role of stomatal and hydraulic regulation in limiting water loss and protecting trees from excessive evaporative demand. Analysis of soil water contribution to transpiration revealed unimodal patterns in wetter area, with peak contributions near 0.45 cm 3 cm -3 of surface soil water and declining or flat responses beyond that threshold, suggesting a shift from water- to energy-limited transpiration. In contrast, drier areas exhibited limited transpiration sensitivity to soil water conditions and minimal trait-based variation in VPD responses, indicating supply-limited conditions. Despite higher wood density trees being generally more resilient, this study shows diverse tree drought resilience, prompting further investigation into the specific traits and dynamics between environmental variables in regulating transpiration and other physiological processes in trees.

Drought↗

Reinterpreting fundamental plane correlations with machine learning

ABSTRACT This work explores the relationships between galaxy sizes and related observable galaxy properties in a large volume cosmological hydrodynamical simulation. The objectives of this work are to develop a better understanding of both the correlations between galaxy properties and the influence of environment on galaxy physics in order to build an improved model for the galaxy sizes, building off of the fundamental plane. With an accurate intrinsic galaxy size predictor, the residuals in the observed galaxy sizes can potentially be used for multiple cosmological applications, including making measurements of galaxy velocities in spectroscopic samples, estimating the rate of cosmic expansion, and constraining the uncertainties in the photometric redshifts of galaxies. Using projection pursuit regression, the model accurately predicts intrinsic galaxy sizes and have residuals which have limited correlation with galaxy properties. The model decreases the spatial correlation of galaxy size residuals by a factor of ∼5 at small scales compared to the baseline correlation when the mean size is used as a predictor.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Neural simulation-based inference of the neutron star equation of state directly from telescope spectra

Neutron stars provide a unique opportunity to study strongly interacting matter under extreme density conditions. The intricacies of matter inside neutron stars and their equation of state are not directly visible, but determine bulk properties, such as mass and radius, which affect the star's thermal X-ray emissions. However, the telescope spectra of these emissions are also affected by the stellar distance, hydrogen column, and effective surface temperature, which are not always well-constrained. Uncertainties on these nuisance parameters must be accounted for when making a robust estimation of the equation of state. In this study, we develop a novel methodology that, for the first time, can infer the full posterior distribution of both the equation of state and nuisance parameters directly from telescope observations. This method relies on the use of neural likelihood estimation, in which normalizing flows use samples of simulated telescope data to learn the likelihood of the neutron star spectra as a function of these parameters, coupled with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods to efficiently sample from the corresponding posterior distribution. Our approach surpasses the accuracy of previous methods, improves the interpretability of the results by providing access to the full posterior distribution, and naturally scales to a growing number of neutron star observations expected in the coming years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SRMS History, Evolution and Lessons Learned

Early in the development of the Space Shuttle, it became clear that NASA needed a method of deploying and retrieving payloads from the payload bay. The Shuttle Remote Manipulator System (SRMS) was developed to fill this need. The 50 foot long robotic arm is an anthropomorphic design consisting of three electromechanical joints, six degrees of freedom, and two boom segments. Its composite boom construction provided a light weight solution needed for space operations. Additionally, a method of capturing payloads with the arm was required and a unique End Effector was developed using an electromechanical snare mechanism. The SRMS is operated using a Displays and Controls Panel and hand controllers located within the aft crew compartment of the shuttle. Although the SRMS was originally conceived to deploy and retrieve payloads, its generic capabilities allowed it to perform many other functions not originally conceived of. Over the years it has been used for deploying and retrieving constrained and free flying payloads, maneuvering and supporting EVA astronauts, satellite repair, International Space Station construction, and as a viewing aid for on-orbit International Space Station operations. After the Columbia accident, a robotically compatible Orbiter Boom Sensor System (OBSS) was developed and used in conjunction with the SRMS to scan the Thermal Protection System (TPS) of the shuttle. These scans ensure there is not a breach of the TPS prior to shuttle re-entry. Ground operations and pre mission simulation, analysis and planning played a major role in the success of the SRMS program. A Systems Engineering Simulator (SES) was developed to provide a utility complimentary to open loop engineering simulations. This system provided a closed-loop real-time pilot-driven simulation giving visual feedback, display and control panel interaction, and integration with other vehicle systems, such as GN&C. It has been useful for many more applications than traditional training. Evolution of the simulations, guided by the Math Model Working Group, showed the utility of input from multiple modeling groups with a structured forum for discussion.There were many unique development challenges in the areas of hardware, software, certification, modeling and simulation. Over the years, upgrades and enhancements were implemented to increase the capability, performance and safety of the SRMS. The history and evolution of the SRMS program provided many lessons learned that can be used for future space robotic systems.

Jorgensen, Glenn↗

Machine Learning for Mapping Multipactor Susceptibility in RF Systems: Capabilities and Generalization Constraints

Multipactor is a surface-driven electron avalanche phenomenon that degrades the performance and reliability of radio-frequency (RF) systems in particle accelerator and vacuum electronics applications. Multipactor behavior in a given device structure is conventionally assessed through susceptibility charts, which provide a parameter-space characterization of the instability. In this work, we assess the capabilities of machine-learning (ML) models to learn and predict such susceptibility charts and analyze the constraints governing their generalization across materials. Using a simulation-derived dataset spanning six distinct secondary-electron-yield material profiles in a canonical two-surface planar geometry, we train supervised regression models and artificial neural networks to predict the time-averaged electron growth rate, δavg, across the relevant parameter space. Model performance is evaluated using metrics that explicitly probe the structure of susceptibility charts, including Intersection over Union, Structural Similarity Index, and correlation analysis. Tree-based ensemble models outperform neural-network models in reconstructing susceptibility regions and in generalizing across material domains. Principal-component analysis reveals disjoint material feature distributions, indicating that the piecewise mode structure of multipactor susceptibility is difficult to represent with a single global model and that generalization is constrained by data coverage rather than by model complexity. An exhaustive reduced-coverage study further shows that sparse material-space coverage can yield mean performance in the same general range but producing large variability in the susceptibility-region overlap. These results clarify the capabilities of ML-based surrogate models for parameter-space characterization of multipactor discharge. They also provide guidance for their appropriate use in RF system design.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Deep Learning At Depth: Estimating subsurface parameters from geophysical monitoring data

Geophysical imaging techniques are a non-invasive way to image the subsurface and understand both subsurface solid (rock/soil) and fluid property distributions and their evolution in time. Inversions of the geophysical data, such as Electrical Resistance Tomography (ERT) data, are solved to estimate the subsurface property distributions, such as conductivity, and many inversion techniques smooth out sharp gradients in rock or fluid property distributions. Sharp gradients in subsurface properties tend to be present in situations with complex subsurface structures, which are common in many subsurface applications. We have successfully demonstrated that it is possible to inform, or constrain, inversions with neural networks trained on synthetic data with complex subsurface structures. Initial results suggest this process may be optimizable to yield property distributions that better represent the true property distributions than the same inversion process without the neural network constraint. Future work would optimize the neural network performance for this application and then apply the synthetic-data trained neural network to real data to understand the utility and performance of this technique for real data sets.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗