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At least 469 records · Page 26

Persistence and potential of soil organic carbon in nature‐based climate solutions: A review of managed disturbances

Societal Impact Statement Implementing nature-based climate solutions is important for mitigating climate change, which is a global issue, but requires local adjustments in management practices. Using the association between soil carbon and minerals as a proxy for carbon persistence, we evaluated the effect of different management regimes on soil carbon sequestration and loss. We identified areas where management practices that increase carbon inputs should be prioritized and areas where management should focus on avoiding severe disturbances. Using this storage-potential-and-persistence framework to identify how to increase or maintain soil organic carbon storage locally will increase the effectiveness of nature-based climate solutions globally. Summary Increasing soil organic carbon storage could reduce the pace of climate change, but the longevity of this nature-based climate solution depends on the persistence of carbon in soils, not just the input rates into soils. We apply a framework for considering how soil carbon persistence—namely, via the association with minerals—sheds light on soil carbon sequestration. We review how management of disturbances, such as prescribed burning, forestry, and grazing, can change soil carbon storage, persistence, and potential. Past work demonstrated that management of disturbances can sequester soil carbon, but it remains unclear how the potential stabilization of that accrual and vulnerability to loss varies across disturbance types and geographies. We found that there is substantial geographical heterogeneity in the overlap among estimates of carbon accrual, disturbance occurrence, and potential stabilization: Fire-prone grasslands and intensively grazed rangelands occur in areas estimated to have high potential to store mineral-associated organic carbon, and studies also find that adjusted fire and grazing can promote mineral-associated organic carbon. Plantation forestry and burned area span large regions where particulate organic matter is the dominant form, and studies find that particulate organic carbon is disproportionately lost following intense wildfires and forest harvests. Thus, areas with high mineral-associated organic carbon deficits should be prioritized for practices that increase carbon inputs; whereas areas with high proportions of particulate organic carbon should be prioritized for practices that help to avoid severe disturbances. Taken together, the distribution of and changes in persistence mechanisms shed light on the durability of nature-based climate solutions.

fire↗

Untargeted, tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS-MS) metaproteomes from soil samples in control and warming plots in Blodgett Forest, CA (2014-2021)

The pathways of carbon transport and loss through and from soils—soil organic matter (SOM) depolymerization to dissolved organic carbon and mineralization to carbon dioxide (CO2)—are fundamentally driven by microbial activity, which is strongly regulated by environmental conditions. As part of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Terrestrial Ecosystem Science (TES) Belowground Biogeochemistry Science Focus Area (SFA), we have established a novel whole-soil long-term warming experiment at the University of California (UC) Blodgett Forest Research Station (Sierra Nevada) in 2014, where we study the role of biogeochemical, microbial and geochemical process interactions in SOM decomposition and stabilization. This package contains soil metaproteomics data in the context of site specific metagenomes from soil depth profiles in three paired control and warming plots from a temperate mixed forest in Northern California. Each paired plot had been subjected to experimental warming since June 2014 to simulate a predicted climate change scenario for northern California. These metaproteomes were collected in 2018 after 4.5 years of warming from five depth intervals (0-10 cm, 10-30 cm, 30-45 cm, 45-60 cm, 60-80 cm). For protein identification, the collected spectra were searched following a target-decoy search strategy against a database of metagenome predicted proteins (covering 96 samples from 2014 to 2021) representing the complete sequence diversity at the site. Data was searched with mass spectrometry database search tool (MS-GF+) using Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)'s Data Management System (DMS) Processing pipeline. The metagenomes are published as part of another data package. Raw metaproteomic data and the data products from MS-GF+ are deposited in the Mass Spectrometry Interactive Virtual Environment (MassIVE) database under accession no. MSV000097826. Here we present a dataset that includes spectral counts for the detected proteins across samples (EMSL50964_BrodieAllMAGs_Globals_SC.txt), the sequences of the detected proteins, and sample metadata file that contains site information for the soil metaproteome samples.

Belowground Biogeochemistry Science Focus Area↗

Use of satellite data and modeling to assess the influence of stratospheric processes on the troposphere

Over the past forty years, numerous linear stability studies have been performed in order to explain the origin and structure of observed waves in the atmosphere. Of these studies, only a small fraction have considered the stability of time-dependent, zonally varying flow or the influence of radiative-photochemical feedbacks on the stability of zonally uniform flow. The stability of such flows is described, and these flows may yield important information concerning the origin, structure, and transient time scales of free waves in the atmosphere. During the period 1990 to 1991, a beta-plane model that couples radiative transfer, ozone advection, and ozone photochemistry with the quasigeostrophic dynamical circulation was developed in order to study the diabatic effects of Newtonian cooling and ozone-dynamics interaction on the linear stability of free planetary waves in the atmosphere. The stability of a basic state consisting of a westward-moving wave and a zonal mean jet was examined using a linearized, nondivergent barotropic model on sphere. The sensitivity of the stability of the flow to the strength and structure of the zonal jet was emphasized. The current research is focused on the following problems: (1) examination of the finite amplitude interactions among radiation, ozone, and dynamics; and (2) examination of the role of seasonal forcing in short-term climate variability. The plans for next year are presented.

Nathan, Terrence↗

Ten Years of SNPP VIIRS Reflective Solar Bands On-Orbit Calibration and Performance

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) has successfully operated on-orbit for nearly ten years since its launch in October 2011, continuously making global observations and improving studies of changes in the Earth’s climate and environment. VIIRS has 22 spectral bands, among which 14 are reflective solar bands (RSBs) covering a spectral range from 0.41 to 2.25 μm. The SNPP VIIRS RSBs are primarily calibrated by the onboard solar diffuser (SD), with its on-orbit degradation tracked by an onboard SD stability monitor (SDSM). The near-monthly scheduled lunar observations, together with the sensor responses over stable ground targets, have contributed to the sensor’s mission-long on-orbit calibration and characterization. Numerous improvements have been made in the RSB calibration methodology since SNPP VIIRS was launched, and the RSB calibration has reached a mature stage after almost ten years of on-orbit operation. SNPP is a joint NASA/NOAA mission and there are two teams, the NASA VIIRS Calibration Support Team (VCST) and the NOAA VIIRS Sensor Data Record Team, which are dedicated to SNPP VIIRS on-orbit calibration. In this paper, we focus on the calibration performed by the NASA VCST. The SNPP VIIRS RSB calibration methodologies used to produce the calibration coefficient look up tables for the latest NASA Level 1B Collection 2 products are reviewed and the calibration improvements incorporated in this collection are described. Recent calibration changes include the removal of image striping caused by non-uniform degradation of the SD, improvements to the method for combining lunar and SD data, mitigation of the effects due a recent anomaly in the SD measurements, estimation of the SD degradation beyond 935 nm, and fitting strategy improvements for look-up table delivery. Overall, the SNPP VIIRS RSBs have performed well since its launch and continue to meet design specifications.

SNPP↗

Materials Design Directions for Solar Thermochemical Water Splitting

The sustainable, economical production of molecular hydrogen is a crucial component of a net zero-greenhouse-gas-emissions future. Solar thermochemical water splitting (STWS) offers a renewable route to hydrogen with the potential to help decarbonize several industries, including transportation, manufacturing, mining, metals processing, and electricity generation, as well as provide sustainable hydrogen as a chemical feedstock. STWS uses high temperatures generated from concentrated sunlight or other sustainable means for high-temperature heat to produce hydrogen and oxygen from steam. For example, in its simplest form of a two-step thermochemical cycle, a redox-active metal oxide is heated to ≈1700-2000 K, driving off molecular oxygen while producing oxygen vacancies in the material. The reduced metal oxide then cools (ideally with the extracted heat recuperated for re-use) and, in a separate step, comes into contact with steam, which reacts with oxygen vacancies to produce molecular hydrogen while recovering the original state of the metal oxide. Despite its promising use of the entire solar spectrum to split water thermochemically, the current estimated cost of hydrogen produced via STWS is ≈4-6× the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen Shot target value of $1/kg. One contributing approach to bridging this cost gap is the design of new materials with improved thermodynamic properties to enable higher efficiencies. The state-of-the-art (SOA) redox-active metal oxide for STWS is ceria (CeO 2 ), due to its close to optimal, although too high, oxygen vacancy formation enthalpy and large configurational and electronic entropy of reduction. However, ceria requires high operating temperatures and its efficiency is insufficient. Therefore, efforts to increase the efficiency of STWS cycles have focused on further optimizing oxygen vacancy formation enthalpies and augmenting the reduction entropy via substitution or doping and materials discovery schemes. Examples of the latter include the perovskites BaCe 0.25 Mn 0.75 O 3 and (Ca,Ce)(Ti,Mn)O 3 . These efforts and others have revealed intuitive chemical principles for the efficient and systematic design of more effective materials, such as the strong correlation between the enthalpies of crystal bond dissociation and solid-state cation reduction with the enthalpy of oxygen vacancy formation, as well as configurational entropy augmentation via the coexistence of two or more redox-active cation sublattices. The purpose of this chapter is to prepare the reader with an up-to-date account of STWS redox-active materials, both the SOA and promising newcomers, as well as to provide chemically intuitive strategies for improving their cycle efficiencies through materials design – in conjunction with ongoing efforts in reactor engineering and gas separations – to reach the cost points for commercial viability. First, we will introduce the thermodynamics of STWS using a two-step, metal-oxide, thermochemical cycle with economics in mind. We also will compare the pros and cons of processes that do or do not involve phase changes. Second, we will describe the qualities that make ceria the SOA STWS redox-active material, as well as its limitations. Third, we will survey some of the most promising candidates to date in the search for materials to supplant ceria, emphasizing the post-ternary, metal-oxide-perovskite alloys. Lastly, we will enumerate and discuss the following materials design directions for STWS redox-active materials: crystal reduction potentials as a proxy for oxygen vacancy formation enthalpies, engineering the electronic and configurational entropy of reduction via f-shells and simultaneous redox, and vetting materials stability via temperature-dependent phase diagrams and melting-point prediction.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Constraining induced seismicity hazard on the Neck of the Desert fault for the proposed Iron Mountain, Utah carbon sequestration project

As significantly more focus is placed on carbon sequestration as a means to help mitigate the progression of climate change, the need to adequately characterize an injection target for its induced seismicity potential becomes more apparent. In the Iron Mountain project in Southern Utah, a single fault is identified in the Neck of the Desert near Iron Mountain. The dip of the fault is unknown, and the geomechanical stability of the fault (i.e., distribution of Coulomb failure functions (CFFs)) is highly dependent upon the dip. For some dips, such as 15 degrees, the hazard from injection is low. For other dips, such as 75 degrees, the hazard is high. Another key consideration is the depth of penetration of the fault. Should the fault not penetrate the stress and pressure perturbed region from injection, it will not be induced to fail. Thus, understanding the dip and the depth of penetration of the fault will greatly improve our understanding of the likelihood of inducing an earthquake.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Tailored Solvation and Interface Structures by Tetrahydrofuran-Derived Electrolyte Facilitates Ultralow Temperature Lithium Metal Battery Operations

Ineffectiveness of Li-ion batteries (LIBs) in cold climates hinders electronics to work in various conditions including frigid environments, despite high demands. Given that intrinsic properties of LIB materials cause this problem, optimized cell chemistries ultimately are required for low-temperature usage. In this study, Li-metal batteries (LMBs) composed of a Li-metal anode (LMA) stabilized by a localized high-concentration electrolyte (LHCE) are found to significantly enhance low-temperature performance. The LHCE allows the LMA to have compact and regular deposition and excellent plating/stripping efficiency at sub-zero temperatures. The LHCE produces an inorganic-rich solid-electrolyte interphase with larger amounts of Li 2 O/LiF interfaces, dominance of ion aggregates in Li + solvation, and enhanced Li + transport, which can greatly improve the LMA stability. LMB full cells based on LiNi 0.8 Co 0.1 Mn 0.1 O 2 cathodes with the tailored electrolyte show high retentions of 75 and 64 % at -20 and -40 °C, respectively. Furthermore, the LMB configuration retains its charge-discharge capability even at -60 °C.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Impact of reservoir parameters and wellbore permeability uncertainties on CO 2 and brine leakage potential at the Shenhua CO 2 Storage Site, China

Here, this paper describes a system-level risk assessment for the Shenhua CO 2 storage site, China, using the National Risk Assessment Partnership Integrated Assessment Model for Carbon Storage (NRAP-IAM-CS). Here, we begin by determining the optimal number of Monte Carlo (MC) simulations to achieve CO 2 and brine leakage result convergence. Then, we calculate mass CO 2 and brine leakage to the atmosphere and a hypothetical shallow aquifer. Finally, we assess the geochemical impacts in the event of leakage as if there were a shallow freshwater aquifer at the Shenhua site. Simulation results show that leakage results tend to stabilize after 300 Monte Carlo simulations. When the three wells on site are assigned a permeability of 10 -11 m 2 (representing significantly leaking wells), moderate CO 2 and brine leakages occur, and the percentage of CO 2 leakage exceeds the threshold value we set based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This is, however, unlikely to be the case for the Shenhua site. For all the other scenarios, the CO 2 leakage is trivial although there is still the possibility of CO 2 leakage into the groundwater aquifer exceeding the 1% threshold over 1000 years, assuming constant legacy wellbore permeability. For the significantly leaking scenario, there is a 10% probability to have a moderate (2.7 × 10 7 m 3 ) leakage-affected volume in the shallow aquifer with the pH below 6.5, and a large (1.4 × 10 8 m 3 ) volume with the total dissolved solids (TDS) above 500 ppm, hence pH and TDS may be considered for site monitoring plans. Based on the simulation results, there is a very low probability of significant CO 2 /brine leakage through the existing wells at the Shenhua CO 2 storage site.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Changing Arctic Snow Cover: A Review of Recent Developments and Assessment of Future Needs for Observations, Modelling, and Impacts

Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict manage and adapt to natural hazards in the Arctic region.

climate change↗

The Dependence of Mean Climate State on Shortwave Absorption by Water Vapor

Abstract State-of-the-art climate models exhibit significant spread in the climatological value of atmospheric shortwave absorption (SWA). This study investigates both the possible causes and climatic impacts of this SWA intermodel spread. The intermodel spread of global-mean SWA largely originates from the intermodel difference in water vapor shortwave absorptivity. Hence, we alter the water vapor shortwave absorptivity in the Community Earth System Model, version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CESM1-CAM4). Increasing the water vapor shortwave absorptivity leads to a reduction in global-mean precipitation and a La Niña–like cooling over the tropical Pacific. The global-mean atmospheric energy budget suggests that the precipitation is suppressed as a way to compensate for the increased SWA. The precipitation reduction is driven by the weakened surface winds, stabilized planetary boundary layer, and surface cooling. The La Niña–like cooling over the tropical Pacific is attributed to the zonal asymmetry of climatological evaporative damping efficiency and the low cloud enhancement over the eastern basin. Complementary fixed SSTs simulations suggest that the latter is more fundamental and that it primarily arises from atmospheric processes. Consistent with our experiments, the CMIP5/6 models with a higher global-mean SWA tend to produce tropical Pacific toward a more La Niña–like mean state, highlighting the possible role of water vapor shortwave absorptivity for shaping the mean-state climate patterns.

Kim, Hanjun↗

Characterizing the localization of organic C on mineral surfaces: a correlative microscopy/spectroscopy approach

It is estimated that organic carbon (OC) in soils exceeds the amount of OC in atmosphere and in vegetation pools combined.1 Given the current changes in climate and increasing temperatures in the environment, the fraction of OC sequestered in soils and sediments is more sensitive to decomposition and release as CO 2 in the atmosphere. Evidence implies that sorption and association of dissolved OC with inorganic soil components, i.e., soil minerals, is a key mechanism that contributes to stabilization and retention of OC in soil environment. Studies have shown a direct correlation between sorption of dissolved OC and soil mineral surface properties and their surface area. In addition, properties of organic compounds such as chemical structure and functional groups play a significant role in interaction of dissolved organic species with mineral surfaces. Association of OC with minerals via ligand exchange reactions, polyvalent tertiary bonding, or complexation with metal ions, is found to be preferential and dependent on the organic compounds’ functional groups.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermal and photoinduced chemistry of the aromatic Criegee intermediate, benzaldehyde oxide: Implications for indoor air quality

Essential oils contain a complex mixture of volatile organic compounds, ranging from terpenes to aromatics. When released into the indoor air environment or into the atmosphere, they may undergo oxidation to generate complex reactive intermediates that affect indoor air quality. Cinnamaldehyde is one such aromatic molecule that is abundant in essential oils. When released into the indoor air environment, it may undergo oxidation to form a carbonyl oxide (Criegee intermediate) with an aromatic substituent: benzaldehyde oxide. In this manuscript, we present a high-level quantum chemical study that shows that, unlike smaller atmospherically relevant Criegee intermediates, benzaldehyde oxide is expected to undergo solar photolysis on timescales that are competitive with its ground state unimolecular and bimolecular chemistry. We show that aromatic substitution leads to a drastic bathochromic shift in the spectroscopically relevant excited states, revealing that photolysis in the indoor or outdoor environment should not be neglected when modeling the climate and air quality implications of Criegee intermediates with extended conjugation. Here, we predict a range of products that may be important for forming lower volatility compounds via tropospherically relevant photochemistry. To motivate future experimental validation of our results, we propose a viable synthetic procedure of the relevant precursor for generating and stabilizing benzaldehyde oxide.

atmospheric photochemistry↗

NPP Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Predicted Sensor Performance Calibration and Preliminary Data Product Performance

Continuation of the Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) Climate Data Record (CDR) has been identified as critical in the 2007 NRC Decadal Survey, the Global Climate Observing System WCRP report, and in an assessment titled Impacts of NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification on Joint NASA-NOAA Climate Goals. In response, NASA, NOAA and NPOESS agreed in early 2008 to fly the final existing CERES Flight Model (FM-5) on the NPP spacecraft for launch in 2010. Future opportunities for ERB CDR continuity consist of procuring an additional CERES Sensor with modest performance upgrades for flight on the NPOESS C1 spacecraft in 2013, followed by a new CERES follow-on sensor for flight in 2018 on the NPOESS C3 spacecraft. While science goals remain unchanged for the long-term ERB Climate Data Record, it is now understood that the task of achieving these goals is more difficult for two reasons. The first is an increased understanding of the dynamics of the Earth/atmosphere system which demonstrates that rigorous separation of natural variability from anthropogenic change on decadal time scales requires higher accuracy and stability than originally envisioned. Secondly, future implementation scenarios involve less redundancy in flight hardware (1 vs. 2 orbits and operational sensors) resulting in higher risk of loss of continuity and reduced number of independent observations to characterize performance of individual sensors. Although EOS CERES CDR's realize a factor of 2 to 4 improvement in accuracy and stability over previous ERBE CDR's, future sensors will require an additional factor of 2 improvement to answer rigorously the science questions moving forward. Modest investments, defined through the CERES Science Team s 30-year operational history of the EOS CERES sensors, in onboard calibration hardware and pre-flight calibration and test program will ensure meeting these goals while reducing costs in re-processing scientific datasets. The CERES FM-5 pre-flight radiometric characterization program benefited from the 30-year operational experience of the CERES EOS sensors, as well as a stronger emphasis of radiometric characterization in the Statement of Work with the sensor provider. Improvements to the pre-flight program included increased spectral, spatial, and temporal sampling under vacuum conditions as well as additional tests to characterize the primary and transfer standards in the calibration facility. Future work will include collaboration with NIST to further enhance the understanding of the radiometric performance of this equipment prior to flight. The current effort summarizes these improvements to the CERES FM-5 pre-flight sensor characterization program, as well as modifications to inflight calibration procedures and operational tasking. In addition, an estimate of the impacts to the system level accuracy and traceability is presented.

Priestly, Kory↗

Patterns and rates of soil movement and shallow failures across several small watersheds on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Abstract. Thawing permafrost can alter topography, ecosystems, and sediment and carbon fluxes, but predicting landscape evolution of permafrost-influenced watersheds in response to warming and/or hydrological changes remains an unsolved challenge. Sediment flux and slope instability in sloping saturated soils have been commonly predicted from topographic metrics (e.g., slope, drainage area). In addition to topographic factors, cohesion imparted by soil and vegetation and melting ground ice may also control spatial trends in slope stability, but the distribution of ground ice is poorly constrained and hard to predict. To address whether slope stability and surface displacements follow topographic-based predictions, we document recent drivers of permafrost sediment flux present on a landscape in western Alaska that include creep, solifluction, gullying, and catastrophic hillslope failures ranging in size from a few meters to tens of meters, and we find evidence of rapid and substantial landscape change on an annual timescale. We quantify the timing and rate of surface movements using a multi-pronged, multi-scalar dataset including aerial surveys, interannual GPS surveys, synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR), and climate data. Despite clear visual evidence of downslope soil transport of solifluction lobes, we find that the interannual downslope surface displacement of these features does not outpace downslope displacement of soil in locations where lobes are absent (downslope movement means: 7 cm yr−1 for lobes over 2 years vs. 10 cm yr−1 in landscape positions without lobes over 1 year). Annual displacements do not appear related to slope, drainage area, or modeled total solar radiation but are likely related to soil thickness, and volumetric sediment fluxes are high compared to temperate landscapes of comparable bedrock lithology. Time series of InSAR displacements show accelerated movement in late summer, associated with intense rainfall and/or deep thaw. While mapped slope failures do cluster at slope–area thresholds, a simple slope stability model driven with hydraulic conductivities representative of throughflow in mineral and organic soil drastically overpredicts the occurrence of slope failures. This mismatch implies permafrost hillslopes have unaccounted-for cohesion and/or throughflow pathways, perhaps modulated by vegetation, which stabilize slopes against high rainfall. Our results highlight the breadth and complexity of soil transport processes in Arctic landscapes and demonstrate the utility of using a range of synergistic data collection methods to observe multiple scales of landscape change, which can aid in predicting periglacial landscape evolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Salton Sea Geothermal Development: Nontechnical Barriers to Entry – Analysis and Perspectives

Geothermal energy offers an opportunity to generate baseload, renewable energy that can help support the transition to an energy economy with reduced impacts on climate change and replace older, more expensive, nonrenewable, and more resource-impacting energy-generation facilities. The United States has the largest known geothermal resource in the world, with over 31 GW of conventional geothermal potential. However, due to market conditions, an inability to properly quantify both electrical grid benefits and resource stability, and the difficulty of exploring and developing the geothermal resource, few new geothermal projects have come online over the past three decades. The Salton Sea, in Imperial County, California, provides a prime location and opportunity to develop new geothermal resources. The Salton Sea contains a robust, well-mapped, geothermal resource, with opportunities for concurrent development of lithium and other mineral resources. This report describes the history of geothermal development at the Salton Sea and compares geothermal to other renewable energy sources in the area. The report then uses a techno-economic analysis (TEA) model to analyze the relative benefits and costs of various challenges and opportunities and provides recommendations for streamlining geothermal development at the Salton Sea and elsewhere. The challenges and opportunities analyzed in the TEA model were informed by stakeholder interviews and literature reviews. Based upon the identified challenges and opportunities and the results of the TEA model, primary findings are that certain nontechnical barriers such as permitting costs play only a minor role in determining the viability of development of the geothermal resource at the Salton Sea. Other barriers such as permitting timelines, government/agency coordination, and the potential co-location of lithium extraction with a geothermal plant may result in much larger impacts on project viability.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

CERES: The Next Generation of Earth Radiation Budget Measurements

NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) is part of an international program for studying the Earth from space using a multiple-instrument, multiple-satellite approach. The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) experiment is designed to monitor changes in the Earth s radiant energy system and cloud systems and to provide these data with sufficient simultaneity and accuracy to examine critical cloud/climate feedback mechanisms which may play a major role in determining future changes in the climate system. The first EOS satellite (Terra), scheduled for launch this year, and the EOS-PM satellite, to be launched in late 2000, will each carry two CERES instruments. The first CERES instrument was launched in 1997 on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The CERES TRMM data show excellent instrument stability and a factor of 2 to 3 less error than previous Earth radiation budget missions. The first CERES data products have been validated and archived. The data consist of instantaneous longwave and shortwave broadband radiances, top-of-atmosphere fluxes, scene types, and time and space averaged fluxes and albedo. A later data product will combine CERES radiances and high- resolution imager data to produce cloud properties and fluxes throughout the atmosphere and at the surface.

Gibson, Gary G.↗

Calibrating Historical IR Sensors Using GEO, and AVHRR Infrared Tropical Mean Calibration Models

Long-term, remote-sensing-based climate data records (CDRs) are highly dependent on having consistent, wellcalibrated satellite instrument measurements of the Earth's radiant energy. Therefore, by making historical satellite calibrations consistent with those of today's imagers, the Earth-observing community can benefit from a CDR that spans a minimum of 30 years. Most operational meteorological satellites rely on an onboard blackbody and space looks to provide on-orbit IR calibration, but neither target is traceable to absolute standards. The IR channels can also be affected by ice on the detector window, angle dependency of the scan mirror emissivity, stray-light, and detector-to-detector striping. Being able to quantify and correct such degradations would mean IR data from any satellite imager could contribute to a CDR. Recent efforts have focused on utilizing well-calibrated modern hyper-spectral sensors to intercalibrate concurrent operational IR imagers to a single reference. In order to consistently calibrate both historical and current IR imagers to the same reference, however, another strategy is needed. Large, well-characterized tropical-domain Earth targets have the potential of providing an Earth-view reference accuracy of within 0.5 K. To that effort, NASA Langley is developing an IR tropical mean calibration model in order to calibrate historical Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instruments. Using Meteosat-9 (Met-9) as a reference, empirical models are built based on spatially/temporally binned Met-9 and AVHRR tropical IR brightness temperatures. By demonstrating the stability of the Met-9 tropical models, NOAA-18 AVHRR can be calibrated to Met-9 by matching the AVHRR monthly histogram averages with the Met-9 model. This method is validated with ray-matched AVHRR and Met-9 biasdifference time series. Establishing the validity of this empirical model will allow for the calibration of historical AVHRR sensors to within 0.5 K, and thereby establish a climate-quality IR data record.

Scarino, Benjamin↗

FFTSF: Revisiting Sub-Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting with Simple Feedforward Network

Accurate short-to-subseasonal streamflow forecasts are vital for water management, including flood preparedness, drought mitigation, hydropower scheduling, and ecosystem protection. However, extending a forecast beyond a few days remains challenging due to complexity of hydrological processes. While recent self-attention based transformer architectures such as iTransformer have gained traction in time-series forecasting, these models suffer from several critical limitations: (1) significant computational overhead that scales quadratically with sequence length, (2) vulnerability to overfitting on limited hydrological datasets, (3) degraded performance on long-horizon forecasts due to attention decay, and (4) excessive architectural complexity that hampers interpretability and operational deployment. In this study, we propose a simple Feedforward Time Series Forecasting (FFTSF) network that directly addresses these limitations through its lightweight architecture and long-range forecasting capabilities. We evaluate FFTSF across 178 USGS stream gauges spanning diverse climate regimes by forecasting lead times of 1-, 7-, 14-, and 30-days. Our results demonstrate that FFTSF achieves competitive performance at short lead times (NSE of 0.778 for 1-day forecasts) while substantially outperforming complex baselines at longer forecast period, achieving the highest NSE (0.271) at 30-day forecasts with greater robustness and stability. For 30-day forecasts, FFTSF achieves a 71% improvement over NLinear, 57% improvement over DLinear and 12% improvement over the computationally intensive iTransformer while requiring fewer computational resources. Our findings reveal that architectural complexity is not necessary for hydrological forecasting, demonstrating that well-designed simple models can outperform attention mechanisms for subseasonal streamflow forecasting. The computational efficiency and consistent long-range performance of FFTSF make it suitable for water management applications where reliable extended forecasts are essential.

Krishnan Kutty Ambika, Anukesh [ORNL] (ORCID:00000↗