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NASA NTRS2011

Observation of Relativistic Electron Microbursts in Conjunction with Intense Radiation Belt Whistler-Mode Waves

We present multi-satellite observations of large amplitude radiation belt whistler-mode waves and relativistic electron precipitation. On separate occasions during the Wind petal orbits and STEREO phasing orbits, Wind and STEREO recorded intense whistler-mode waves in the outer nightside equatorial radiation belt with peak-to-peak amplitudes exceeding 300 mV/m. During these intervals of intense wave activity, SAMPEX recorded relativistic electron microbursts in near magnetic conjunction with Wind and STEREO. This evidence of microburst precipitation occurring at the same time and at nearly the same magnetic local time and L-shell with a bursty temporal structure similar to that of the observed large amplitude wave packets suggests a causal connection between the two phenomena. Simulation studies corroborate this idea, showing that nonlinear wave.particle interactions may result in rapid energization and scattering on timescales comparable to those of the impulsive relativistic electron precipitation.

Kersten, K.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Aircraft Loss-of-Control: Analysis and Requirements for Future Safety-Critical Systems and Their Validation

Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to fatal aircraft accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are complex, resulting from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or more often in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. This paper summarizes recent analysis results in identifying worst-case combinations of loss-of-control accident precursors and their time sequences, a holistic approach to preventing loss-of-control accidents in the future, and key requirements for validating the associated technologies.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Accurate Radiometry from Space: An Essential Tool for Climate Studies

The Earth s climate is undoubtedly changing; however, the time scale, consequences and causal attribution remain the subject of significant debate and uncertainty. Detection of subtle indicators from a background of natural variability requires measurements over a time base of decades. This places severe demands on the instrumentation used, requiring measurements of sufficient accuracy and sensitivity that can allow reliable judgements to be made decades apart. The International System of Units (SI) and the network of National Metrology Institutes were developed to address such requirements. However, ensuring and maintaining SI traceability of sufficient accuracy in instruments orbiting the Earth presents a significant new challenge to the metrology community. This paper highlights some key measurands and applications driving the uncertainty demand of the climate community in the solar reflective domain, e.g. solar irradiances and reflectances/radiances of the Earth. It discusses how meeting these uncertainties facilitate significant improvement in the forecasting abilities of climate models. After discussing the current state of the art, it describes a new satellite mission, called TRUTHS, which enables, for the first time, high-accuracy SI traceability to be established in orbit. The direct use of a primary standard and replication of the terrestrial traceability chain extends the SI into space, in effect realizing a metrology laboratory in space . Keywords: climate change; Earth observation; satellites; radiometry; solar irradiance

Fox, Nigel↗

NASA NTRS2011

Shoulder Injuries in US Astronauts Related to EVA Suit Design

Introduction: For every one hour spent performing extravehicular activity (EVA) in space, astronauts in the US space program spend approximately six to ten hours training in the EVA spacesuit at NASA-Johnson Space Center's Neutral Buoyancy Lab (NBL). In 1997, NASA introduced the planar hard upper torso (HUT) EVA spacesuit which subsequently replaced the existing pivoted HUT. An extra joint in the pivoted shoulder allows increased mobility but also increased complexity. Over the next decade a number of astronauts developed shoulder problems requiring surgical intervention, many of whom performed EVA training in the NBL. This study investigated whether changing HUT designs led to shoulder injuries requiring surgical repair. Methods: US astronaut EVA training data and spacesuit design employed were analyzed from the NBL data. Shoulder surgery data was acquired from the medical record database, and causal mechanisms were obtained from personal interviews Analysis of the individual HUT designs was performed as it related to normal shoulder biomechanics. Results: To date, 23 US astronauts have required 25 shoulder surgeries. Approximately 48% (11/23) directly attributed their injury to training in the planar HUT, whereas none attributed their injury to training in the pivoted HUT. The planar HUT design limits shoulder abduction to 90 degrees compared to approximately 120 degrees in the pivoted HUT. The planar HUT also forces the shoulder into a forward flexed position requiring active retraction and extension to increase abduction beyond 90 degrees. Discussion: Multiple factors are associated with mechanisms leading to shoulder injury requiring surgical repair. Limitations to normal shoulder mechanics, suit fit, donning/doffing, body position, pre-existing injury, tool weight and configuration, age, in-suit activity, and HUT design have all been identified as potential sources of injury. Conclusion: Crewmembers with pre-existing or current shoulder injuries or certain anthropometric body types should conduct NBL EVA training in the pivoted HUT.

Scheuring, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Thoughts Without Content are Empty, Intuitions Without Concepts are Blind - Determinism and Contingency Revisited

Was the emergence of life a predictable outcome of chemical evolution on earth? Could evolution produce life very different from ours? These are one of the oldest questions in the field of the origin of life that not only have broad philosophical implications but also impact how we approach the problem from the methodological standpoint. Framing the issue in terms of the dichotomy between contingency and determinism is not a fortunate because these two terms in their conventional meaning are neither mutually exclusive nor jointly exhaustive. Determinism, represented in natural sciences by Newtonian physics, relies on the assumption that every event is causally determined by a chain of previous events. In the context of the origin of life it means that once the initial conditions on the early earth have been specified further evolution follows inevitably. Considering uncertainties about conditions on the prebiotic earth, many plausible sets of initial conditions can be defined, each followed by a separate deterministic trajectory. This conventional understanding of determinism does not admit contingency. Further, it has no implications for evaluating how many sets of initial conditions lead to the emergence of life. It appears that a better framing of the problem is as follows: given plausible sets of initial conditions on the early earth how probable and broadly spread are evolutionary trajectories that lead to life? Instead of undertaking an impossible task of specifying microscopic initial conditions for all components of the system one uses a reduced representation of this system and specify only a small set of essential macroscopic parameters, values (or ranges of values) of which can be identified, inferred or estimated from experiment, theory or historical record. The following evolutionary trajectories are still governed by laws of physics and chemistry but become probabilistic and "contingency" is admitted as variations in other variables in the system. A similar reasoning is common in other fields of science, for example in statistical mechanics. Some trajectories lead to life, perhaps in different forms, whereas others do not. Of our true interest is the ratio of these two outcomes. The issue of determinism does not directly enter the picture. The debate about the likelihood of the emergence of life is quite old. One view holds that the origin of life is an event governed by chance, and the result of so many random events (contingencies) is unpredictable. This view was eloquently expressed by Monod. In his book "Chance or Necessity" he argued that life was a product of "nature's roulette." In an alternative view, expressed in particular by deDuve and Morowitz, the origin of life is considered a highly probable or even inevitable event (although its details need not be determined in every respect). Only in this sense the origin of life can be considered a "deterministic event".

Pohorille, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS2012

Probability of Causation for Space Radiation Carcinogenesis Following International Space Station, Near Earth Asteroid, and Mars Missions

Cancer risk is an important concern for International Space Station (ISS) missions and future exploration missions. An important question concerns the likelihood of a causal association between a crew members radiation exposure and the occurrence of cancer. The probability of causation (PC), also denoted as attributable risk, is used to make such an estimate. This report summarizes the NASA model of space radiation cancer risks and uncertainties, including improvements to represent uncertainties in tissue-specific cancer incidence models for never-smokers and the U.S. average population. We report on tissue-specific cancer incidence estimates and PC for different post-mission times for ISS and exploration missions. An important conclusion from our analysis is that the NASA policy to limit the risk of exposure-induced death to 3% at the 95% confidence level largely ensures that estimates of the PC for most cancer types would not reach a level of significance. Reducing uncertainties through radiobiological research remains the most efficient method to extend mission length and establish effective mitigators for cancer risks. Efforts to establish biomarkers of space radiation-induced tumors and to estimate PC for rarer tumor types are briefly discussed.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

NASA Accident Precursor Analysis Handbook, Version 1.0

Catastrophic accidents are usually preceded by precursory events that, although observable, are not recognized as harbingers of a tragedy until after the fact. In the nuclear industry, the Three Mile Island accident was preceded by at least two events portending the potential for severe consequences from an underappreciated causal mechanism. Anomalies whose failure mechanisms were integral to the losses of Space Transportation Systems (STS) Challenger and Columbia had been occurring within the STS fleet prior to those accidents. Both the Rogers Commission Report and the Columbia Accident Investigation Board report found that processes in place at the time did not respond to the prior anomalies in a way that shed light on their true risk implications. This includes the concern that, in the words of the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP), "no process addresses the need to update a hazard analysis when anomalies occur" At a broader level, the ASAP noted in 2007 that NASA "could better gauge the likelihood of losses by developing leading indicators, rather than continue to depend on lagging indicators". These observations suggest a need to revalidate prior assumptions and conclusions of existing safety (and reliability) analyses, as well as to consider the potential for previously unrecognized accident scenarios, when unexpected or otherwise undesired behaviors of the system are observed. This need is also discussed in NASA's system safety handbook, which advocates a view of safety assurance as driving a program to take steps that are necessary to establish and maintain a valid and credible argument for the safety of its missions. It is the premise of this handbook that making cases for safety more experience-based allows NASA to be better informed about the safety performance of its systems, and will ultimately help it to manage safety in a more effective manner. The APA process described in this handbook provides a systematic means of analyzing candidate accident precursors by evaluating anomaly occurrences for their system safety implications and, through both analytical and deliberative methods used to project to other circumstances, identifying those that portend more serious consequences to come if effective corrective action is not taken. APA builds upon existing safety analysis processes currently in practice within NASA, leveraging their results to provide an improved understanding of overall system risk. As such, APA represents an important dimension of safety evaluation; as operational experience is acquired, precursor information is generated such that it can be fed back into system safety analyses to risk-inform safety improvements. Importantly, APA utilizes anomaly data to predict risk whereas standard reliability and PRA approaches utilize failure data which often is limited and rare.

Groen, Frank↗

NASA NTRS2012

Model-Based Fault Diagnosis: Performing Root Cause and Impact Analyses in Real Time

Generic, object-oriented fault models, built according to causal-directed graph theory, have been integrated into an overall software architecture dedicated to monitoring and predicting the health of mission- critical systems. Processing over the generic fault models is triggered by event detection logic that is defined according to the specific functional requirements of the system and its components. Once triggered, the fault models provide an automated way for performing both upstream root cause analysis (RCA), and for predicting downstream effects or impact analysis. The methodology has been applied to integrated system health management (ISHM) implementations at NASA SSC's Rocket Engine Test Stands (RETS).

Figueroa, Jorge F.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies During Two Persistent North American Droughts: 1932-1939 and 1948-1957

We use an early twentieth century (1908-1958) atmospheric reanalysis, based on assimilation of surface and sea level pressure observations, to contrast atmospheric circulation during two periods of persistent drought in North America: 1932-1939 (the Dust Bowl) and 1948-1957. Primary forcing for both droughts is believed to come from anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs): a warm Atlantic and a cool eastern tropical Pacific. For boreal winter (October-March) in the 1950s, a stationary wave pattern originating from the tropical Pacific is present, with positive centers over the north Pacific and north Atlantic ocean basins and a negative center positioned over northwest North America and the tropical/subtropical Pacific. This wave train is largely absent for the 1930s drought; boreal winter height anomalies are organized much more zonally, with positive heights extending across northern North America. For boreal summer (April-September) during the 1930s, a strong upper level ridge is centered over the Great Plains; this feature is absent during the 1950s and appears to be linked to a weakening of the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ). Subsidence anomalies are co-located over the centers of each drought: in the central Great Plains for the 1930s and in a band extending from the southwest to the southeastern United States for the 1950s. The location and intensity of this subsidence during the 1948-1957 drought is a typical response to a cold eastern tropical Pacific, but for 1932-1939 deviates in terms of the expected intensity, location, and spatial extent. Overall, circulation anomalies during the 1950s drought appear consistent with the expected response to the observed SST forcing. This is not the case for the 1930s, implying some other causal factor may be needed to explain the Dust Bowl drought anomalies. In addition to SST forcing, the 1930s were also characterized by massive alterations to the land surface, including regional-scale devegetation from crop failures and intensive wind erosion and dust storms. Incorporation of these land surface factors into a general circulation model greatly improves the simulation of precipitation and subsidence anomalies during this drought, relative to simulations with SST forcing alone. Even with additional forcing from the land surface, however, the model still has difficulty reproducing some of the other circulation anomalies, including weakening of the GPLLJ and strengthening of the upper level ridge during AMJJAS. This may be due to either weaknesses in the model or uncertainties in the boundary condition estimates. Still, analysis of the circulation anomalies supports the conclusion of an earlier paper (Cook et al. in Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:4997, 2009), demonstrating that land degradation factors are consistent with the anomalous nature of the Dust Bowl drought.

Cook, Benjamin↗

NASA NTRS2011

Lightning-Generated Whistler Waves Observed by Probes On The Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System Satellite at Low Latitudes

Direct evidence is presented for a causal relationship between lightning and strong electric field transients inside equatorial ionospheric density depletions. In fact, these whistler mode plasma waves may be the dominant electric field signal within such depletions. Optical lightning data from the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) satellite and global lightning location information from the World Wide Lightning Location Network are presented as independent verification that these electric field transients are caused by lightning. The electric field instrument on C/NOFS routinely measures lightning ]related electric field wave packets or sferics, associated with simultaneous measurements of optical flashes at all altitudes encountered by the satellite (401.867 km). Lightning ]generated whistler waves have abundant access to the topside ionosphere, even close to the magnetic equator.

Holzworth, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Simulation Modeling Requirements for Loss-of-Control Accident Prevention of Turboprop Transport Aircraft

In-flight loss of control remains the leading contributor to aviation accident fatalities, with stall upsets being the leading causal factor. The February 12, 2009. Colgan Air, Inc., Continental Express flight 3407 accident outside Buffalo, New York, brought this issue to the forefront of public consciousness and resulted in recommendations from the National Transportation Safety Board to conduct training that incorporates stalls that are fully developed and develop simulator standards to support such training. In 2010, Congress responded to this accident with Public Law 11-216 (Section 208), which mandates full stall training for Part 121 flight operations. Efforts are currently in progress to develop recommendations on implementation of stall training for airline pilots. The International Committee on Aviation Training in Extended Envelopes (ICATEE) is currently defining simulator fidelity standards that will be necessary for effective stall training. These recommendations will apply to all civil transport aircraft including straight-wing turboprop aircraft. Government-funded research over the previous decade provides a strong foundation for stall/post-stall simulation for swept-wing, conventional tail jets to respond to this mandate, but turboprops present additional and unique modeling challenges. First among these challenges is the effect of power, which can provide enhanced flow attachment behind the propellers. Furthermore, turboprops tend to operate for longer periods in an environment more susceptible to ice. As a result, there have been a significant number of turboprop accidents as a result of the early (lower angle of attack) stalls in icing. The vulnerability of turboprop configurations to icing has led to studies on ice accumulation and the resulting effects on flight behavior. Piloted simulations of these effects have highlighted the important training needs for recognition and mitigation of icing effects, including the reduction of stall margins. This paper addresses simulation modeling requirements that are unique to turboprop transport aircraft and highlights the growing need for aerodynamic models suitable for stall training for these configurations. A review of prominent accidents that involved aerodynamic stall is used to illustrate various modeling features unique to turboprop configurations and the impact of stall behavior on susceptibility to loss of control that has led to new training requirements. This is followed by an overview of stability and control behavior of straight-wing turboprops, the related aerodynamic characteristics, and a summary of recent experimental studies on icing effects. In addition, differences in flight dynamics behavior between swept-wing jets and straight-wing turboprop configurations are discussed to compare and contrast modeling requirements. Specific recommendations for aerodynamic models along with further research needs and data measurements are also provided. 1

Crider, Dennis↗

NASA NTRS2012

Loss of Control Prevention and Recovery: Onboard Guidance, Control, and Systems Technologies

Loss of control (LOC) is one of the largest contributors to fatal aircraft accidents worldwide. LOC accidents are complex in that they can result from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or (more often) in combination. These LOC hazards include vehicle impairment conditions, external disturbances; vehicle upset conditions, and inappropriate crew actions or responses. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. NASA previously defined a comprehensive research and technology development approach for reducing LOC accidents and an associated integrated system concept. Onboard technologies for improved situation awareness, guidance, and control for LOC prevention and recovery are needed as part of this approach. Such systems should include: LOC hazards effects detection and mitigation; upset detection, prevention and recovery; and mitigation of combined hazards. NASA is conducting research in each of these areas. This paper provides an overview of this research, including the near-term LOC focus and associated analysis, as well as preliminary flight system architecture.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) for Aviation Accident Modeling and Technology Portfolio Impact Assessment

The concern for reducing aviation safety risk is rising as the National Airspace System in the United States transforms to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The NASA Aviation Safety Program is committed to developing an effective aviation safety technology portfolio to meet the challenges of this transformation and to mitigate relevant safety risks. The paper focuses on the reasoning of selecting Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) as the technique and commercial software for the accident modeling and portfolio assessment. To illustrate the benefits of OOBN in a large and complex aviation accident model, the in-flight Loss-of-Control Accident Framework (LOCAF) constructed as an influence diagram is presented. An OOBN approach not only simplifies construction and maintenance of complex causal networks for the modelers, but also offers a well-organized hierarchical network that is easier for decision makers to exploit the model examining the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies through technology insertions.

Shih, Ann T.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Comparing the Identification of Recommendations by Different Accident Investigators Using a Common Methodology

Accident reports play a key role in the safety of complex systems. These reports present the recommendations that are intended to help avoid any recurrence of past failures. However, the value of these findings depends upon the causal analysis that helps to identify the reasons why an accident occurred. Various techniques have been developed to help investigators distinguish root causes from contributory factors and contextual information. This paper presents the results from a study into the individual differences that can arise when a group of investigators independently apply the same technique to identify the causes of an accident. This work is important if we are to increase the consistency and coherence of investigations following major accidents.

Johnson, Chris W.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Analysis of the Radiated Field in an Electromagnetic Reverberation Chamber as an Upset-Inducing Stimulus for Digital Systems

Preliminary data analysis for a physical fault injection experiment of a digital system exposed to High Intensity Radiated Fields (HIRF) in an electromagnetic reverberation chamber suggests a direct causal relation between the time profile of the field strength amplitude in the chamber and the severity of observed effects at the outputs of the radiated system. This report presents an analysis of the field strength modulation induced by the movement of the field stirrers in the reverberation chamber. The analysis is framed as a characterization of the discrete features of the field strength waveform responsible for the faults experienced by a radiated digital system. The results presented here will serve as a basis to refine the approach for a detailed analysis of HIRF-induced upsets observed during the radiation experiment. This work offers a novel perspective into the use of an electromagnetic reverberation chamber to generate upset-inducing stimuli for the study of fault effects in digital systems.

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo↗

NASA NTRS2013

Computational Modeling of Cephalad Fluid Shift for Application to Microgravity-Induced Visual Impairment

An improved understanding of spaceflight-induced ocular pathology, including the loss of visual acuity, globe flattening, optic disk edema and distension of the optic nerve and optic nerve sheath, is of keen interest to space medicine. Cephalad fluid shift causes a profoundly altered distribution of fluid within the compartments of the head and body, and may indirectly generate phenomena that are biomechanically relevant to visual function, such as choroidal engorgement, compromised drainage of blood and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), and altered translaminar pressure gradient posterior to the eye. The experimental body of evidence with respect to the consequences of fluid shift has not yet been able to provide a definitive picture of the sequence of events. On earth, elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) is associated with idiopathic intracranial hypertension (IIH), which can produce ocular pathologies that look similar to those seen in some astronauts returning from long-duration flight. However, the clinically observable features of the Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome in space and IIH on earth are not entirely consistent. Moreover, there are at present no experimental measurements of ICP in microgravity. By its very nature, physiological measurements in spaceflight are sparse, and the space environment does not lend itself to well-controlled experiments. In the absence of such data, numerical modeling can play a role in the investigation of biomechanical causal pathways that are suspected of involvement in VIIP. In this work, we describe the conceptual framework for modeling the altered compartmental fluid distribution that represents an equilibrium fluid distribution resulting from the loss of hydrostatic pressure gradient.

Nelson, Emily S.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Decoupling Contributions from Canopy Structure and Leaf Optics is Critical for Remote Sensing Leaf Biochemistry (Reply to Townsend, et al.)

Townsend et al. (1) agree that we explained that the apparent relationship (2) between foliar nitrogen (%N) and near-infrared (NIR) canopy reflectance was largely attributable to structure (which is in turn caused by variation in fraction of broadleaf canopy). Our conclusion that the observed correlation with %N was spurious (i.e., lacking a causal basis) is, thus, clearly justified: we demonstrated that structure explained the great majority of observed correlation, where the structural influence was derived precisely via reconciling the observed correlation with radiative-transfer theory. What this also suggests is that such correlations, although observed, do not uniquely provide information on canopy biochemical constituents.

Knyazikhin, Yuri↗

NASA NTRS2012

Observations and Simulations of Formation of Broad Plasma Depletions Through Merging Process

Broad plasma depletions in the equatorial ionosphere near dawn are region in which the plasma density is reduced by 1-3 orders of magnitude over thousands of kilometers in longitude. This phenomenon is observed repeatedly by the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite during deep solar minimum. The plasma flow inside the depletion region can be strongly upward. The possible causal mechanism for the formation of broad plasma depletions is that the broad depletions result from merging of multiple equatorial plasma bubbles. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the feasibility of the merging mechanism with new observations and simulations. We present C/NOFS observations for two cases. A series of plasma bubbles is first detected by C/NOFS over a longitudinal range of 3300-3800 km around midnight. Each of the individual bubbles has a typical width of approx 100 km in longitude, and the upward ion drift velocity inside the bubbles is 200-400 m/s. The plasma bubbles rotate with the Earth to the dawn sector and become broad plasma depletions. The observations clearly show the evolution from multiple plasma bubbles to broad depletions. Large upward plasma flow occurs inside the depletion region over 3800 km in longitude and exists for approx 5 h. We also present the numerical simulations of bubble merging with the physics-based low-latitude ionospheric model. It is found that two separate plasma bubbles join together and form a single, wider bubble. The simulations show that the merging process of plasma bubbles can indeed occur in incompressible ionospheric plasma. The simulation results support the merging mechanism for the formation of broad plasma depletions.

plasma bubbles↗