Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “causal”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 469 records · Page 26

BrainXcan identifies brain features associated with behavioral and psychiatric traits using large-scale genetic and imaging data

Advances in brain MRI have enabled many discoveries in neuroscience. Case-control comparisons of brain MRI features have highlighted potential causes of psychiatric and behavioral disorders. However, due to the cost and difficulty of collecting MRI data, most studies have small sample sizes, limiting their reliability. Furthermore, reverse causality complicates interpretation because many observed brain differences are the result rather than the cause of the disease. Here we propose a method (BrainXcan) that leverages the power of large-scale genomewide association studies (GWAS) and reference brain MRI data to discover new mechanisms of disease etiology and validate existing ones. BrainXcan tests the association with genetic predictors of brain MRI-derived features and complex traits to pinpoint relevant brain-wide and region-specific features. Requiring only genetic data, BrainXcan allows us to test a host of hypotheses on mental illness, across many MRI modalities, using public data resources. For example, our method shows that reduced axonal density across the brain is associated with schizophrenia risk, consistent with the disconnectivity hypothesis. We also find that the hippocampus volume is associated with schizophrenia risk, highlighting the potential of our approach. Taken together, our results show the promise of BrainXcan to provide insights into the biology of GWAS traits.

Association study↗

A dataset of eco-evidence tools to inform early-stage environmental impact assessments of hydropower development

The datasets described herein provide the foundation for a decision support prototype (DSP) toolkit aimed at assisting stakeholders in determining evidence of which aspects of river ecosystems have been impacted by hydropower. The DSP toolkit and its application are presented and described in the article “Evidence-based indicator approach to guide preliminary environmental impact assessments of hydropower development” [1]. Development of the DSP and the output for decision support centralize around 42 river function indicators describing the dimensionality of river ecosystems through six main categories: biota and biodiversity, water quality, hydrology, geomorphology, land cover, and river connectivity. Three main tools are represented in the DSP: A science-based questionnaire (SBQ), an environmental envelope model (EEM), and a river function linkage assessment tool (RFLAT). The SBQ is a structured survey-style questionnaire whose objective is to provide evidence of which indicators have been impacted by hydropower. Based on a global literature review, 140 questions were developed from general hypotheses regarding the impacts of dams on rivers. The EEM is a model to predict the likelihood of hydropower impacting indicators based on a several variables. The intended use of the EEM is for situations of new hydropower development where results of the SBQ are incomplete or highly uncertain. The EEM was developed through the compilation of a dataset containing attributes of dams, reservoirs, and geospatial information on environmental concerns, which was combined with data on ecological indicators documented at those sites through literature review. The model operates through 247 “envelopes” and weighting factors, representing the individual effect of each variable on each indicator, all available through spreadsheets. Finally, the RFLAT is a tool to examine causal relationships amongst indicators. Inter-indicator relationships were hypothesized based on literature review and summarized into node and edge datasets to represent the structure of a graphical network. Bayes theorem was used estimate conditional probabilities of inter-indicator relationships based on the output of the SBQ. Nodes and edges were imported into R programming environment to visualize ecological indicator networks. The datasets can be expanded upon and enriched with more detailed questions for the SBQ, building upon the EEM with to develop more sophisticated models, and identifying new relationships for the RFALT. Additionally, once the tools are applied to numerous hydropower developments, the output of the tools (e.g. evidence of impacted indicators) becomes a very useful dataset for meta-analyses of hydropower impacts.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Advocating for view and daylight in buildings: Next steps

With the exponential growth in population and commensurate increased density in urban cities, access to daylight and views to nature is being severely curtailed in buildings. In parallel, increasingly urgent demands to sharply reduce building energy use and associated greenhouse gas emissions are being made to mitigate climate change. There are many challenges and performance tradeoffs associated with the building facade (i.e., daylight and view versus solar and glare control); increased prioritization of health and well-being as a fundamental human requirement could adversely affect building energy-efficiency. Given the current state of knowledge on the effects of daylight and view on health and well-being in buildings, we identify critical needs in research, tools and technologies that if satisfied may enable more effective use of daylight and view in buildings within the constraints of climate change. Lack of knowledge regarding the complex causal mechanisms of window views on human factors is a severely limiting factor in forward progress. Current models and methods to derive bidirectional scattering distribution functions (BSDFs) will need to be modified. Developers of energy-efficient window technologies will need more guidance to shape product development. Advanced window technologies and integrated design can enable attainment of both health and well-being and net zero energy goals, but considerable work will be needed to make such options turnkey and broadly available.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Large isotopic variability at the micron-scale in ‘Shuram’ excursion carbonates from South Australia

Ediacaran-aged (635–541 million years ago) marine sediments contain a large negative carbon isotope (δ 13 C) excursion, in which carbonate δ 13 C values reach -12‰ (VPDB). Known as the ‘Shuram’ excursion, many workers have interpreted this δ 13 C record as an unprecedented perturbation to the global carbon cycle, leading to speculation about a causal connection to the broadly contemporaneous rise of animal life. Others have interpreted the δ 13 C signal as a product of diagenesis, thereby minimizing its relevance for understanding the evolution of metazoans. In this work, we present SEM imaging and in-situ δ 13 C and δ 18 C values measured by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) to assess these competing hypotheses in the Wonoka Formation of South Australia. Our results from the minimum of the excursion show that rounded sedimentary grains of calcite have δ 13 C values between -12.8 to -10.6‰ and δ 18 C values between 17.8 to 15.5‰ (VPDB). Euhedral dolomite that appears to have grown unimpeded in open sedimentary pore spaces also is present. These early-stage dolomites are interpreted as early authigenic in origin and have δ 13 C values that reach +5‰, requiring a formation fluid with a substantially different δ 13 C composition from basin waters or bulk sediment. Together, these results provide little evidence for the hypothesis that a late diagenetic overprint has generated the ‘Shuram’ excursion in the Wonoka. Instead, they suggest the presence of a large carbon isotopic gradient in the surface environment, with shallow waters capable of precipitating carbonates with very low δ 13 C (down to 12‰) and deeper shelf and/or marine pore waters generating carbonates with positive carbon isotope values (up to +5‰). Because negative isotope excursions of similar magnitude are found in widely dispersed Ediacaran basins, it is likely that this gradient was characteristic of shelf environments of this period and that a still-unknown global process led to the ‘Shuram’ excursion in shallow water carbonates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Supply sunspots and shadows: Business siting patterns and inequitable rooftop solar adoption in the United States

Entrepreneurs in certain industries tend to locate new businesses in relatively affluent areas. Preferences to site businesses in affluent areas can reduce low-income household access to certain products. Some argue that business siting patterns could explain inequitable consumption patterns, though such causal claims are often empirically weak. Here, we explore whether business siting patterns partly explain inequitable adoption of rooftop solar photovoltaics in California. We show that solar business formation drives an immediate and sustained increase in local solar adoption, including in low-income areas. However, solar business siting patterns have only weak impacts on solar adoption equity. The data show how solar businesses headquartered in low-income areas nonetheless install solar for relatively affluent customers. Customer-level adoption inequity partly offsets the potential equity gains of siting more businesses in low-income areas. We discuss how the emergent nature and unique business model of rooftop solar help explain these nuanced results.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Uplifting winds: The surprisingly positive community-wide impact of wind energy installations on property values

A primary concern of stakeholders when considering a new wind project is the potential negative effects wind turbines may have on home values. Yet, what has been surprisingly overlooked in the literature and general discourse around wind energy is that the well-researched positive economic development and fiscal and amenity benefits of wind energy (e.g., increased tax base, tax revenue, better public services and employment gains) might positively affect jurisdiction-wide housing values. With a focus on school districts in the United States, we compare home values in school districts with wind energy installations, before and after a wind energy installation becomes operational, to home values in other school districts located in the same county but without a wind energy installation to provide some of the first causal evidence on the relationship between wind energy projects and district-wide property values. We find that wind projects lead to economically meaningful increases in district-wide housing values of approximately 3 %, when those values are compared to similar homes located in school districts in same-county without wind energy. The effect is strongly correlated with wind project size. The mechanisms, our research suggests, are likely related to relatively large increases in school district per-pupil revenues and expenditures, which are also correlated with wind project size. We suggest other possible mechanisms for the increased values as well.

Attitudes↗

Self-reported health impacts of do-it-yourself air cleaner use in a smoke-impacted community

Smoke exposure from wildfires or residential wood burning for heat is a public health problem for many communities. Do-It-Yourself (DIY) portable air cleaners (PACs) are promoted as affordable alternatives to commercial PACs, but evidence of their effect on health outcomes is limited. Pilot test an evaluation of the effect of DIY PAC usage on self-reported symptoms, and investigate barriers and facilitators of PAC use, among members of a tribal community that routinely experiences elevated concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) from smoke. We conducted studies in Fall 2021 (“wildfire study”; N = 10) and Winter 2022 (“wood stove study”; N = 17). Each study included four sequential one-to-two-week phases: 1) initial, 2) DIY PAC usage ≥8 h/day, 3) commercial PAC usage ≥8 h/day, and 4) air sensor with visual display and optional PAC use. We continuously monitored PAC usage and indoor/outdoor PM 2.5 concentrations in homes. Concluding each phase, we conducted phone surveys about participants’ symptoms, perceptions, and behaviors. We analyzed symptoms associated with PAC usage and conducted an analysis of indoor PM 2.5 concentrations as a mediating pathway using mixed effects multivariate linear regression. We categorized perceptions related to PACs into barriers and facilitators of use. No association was observed between PAC usage and symptoms, and the mediation analysis did not indicate that small observed trends were attributable to changes in indoor PM 2.5 concentrations. Small sample sizes hindered the ability to draw conclusions regarding the presence or absence of causal associations. DIY PAC usage was low; loud operating noise was a barrier to use. This research is novel in studying health effects of DIY PACs during wildfire and wood smoke exposures. Such research is needed to inform public health guidance. Recommendations for future studies on PAC use during smoke exposure include building flexibility of intervention timing into the study design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Listeria monocytogenes loss of cultivability on carrot is associated with the formation of mesosome-like structures

Raw carrot is known to have antimicrobial activity against Listeria monocytogenes, but the mechanism of action has not been fully elucidated. In this study, we examined carrot antilisterial activity against several strains of Listeria species (including L. grayi, L. innocua, L. seeligeri, and L. welshimeri) and L. monocytogenes. A representative strain of L. monocytogenes was subsequently used for further characterizing carrot antilisterial activity. Exposure to fresh-cut carrot for 15 min resulted in a similar loss of cultivability, ranging from 2.5 to 4.7 log units, across all Listeria strains evaluated. L. monocytogenes recovered from the fresh-cut surface of different raw carrots was 1.6 to 4.1 log lower than levels obtained from paired boiled carrot samples with abolished antilisterial activity. L. monocytogenes levels recovered from fresh-cut carrot were 2.8 to 3.1 log lower when enumerated by culture-dependent methods than by the culture-independent method of PMAxx-qPCR, a qPCR assay that is performed using DNA pre-treated to selectively sequester DNA from cells with injured membranes. These results suggested that L. monocytogenes loss of cultivability on fresh-cut carrot was not associated with a loss of L. monocytogenes cell membrane integrity and putative cell viability. Transmission electron microscopy imaging revealed that L. monocytogenes rapidly formed mesosome-like structures upon exposure to carrot fresh-cut surface but not upon exposure to boiled carrot surface, suggesting there may be an association between the formation of these mesosome-like structures and a loss of cultivability in L. monocytogenes. As a result, further research is necessary to conclude the causality of this association.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A generative machine learning model for designing metal hydrides applied to hydrogen storage

Developing new metal hydrides is a critical step toward efficient hydrogen storage in carbon-neutral energy systems. However, existing materials databases, such as the Materials Project, contain a limited number of well-characterized hydrides, which constrains the discovery of optimal candidates. This work presents a framework that integrates causal discovery with a lightweight generative machine learning model to generate novel metal hydride candidates that may not exist in current databases. Using a dataset of 450 samples (270 training, 90 validation, and 90 testing), the model generates 1000 candidates. After ranking and filtering, six previously unreported chemical formulas and crystal structures are identified, four of which are validated by density functional theory simulations and show strong potential for future experimental investigation. Overall, the proposed framework provides a scalable and time-efficient approach for expanding hydrogen storage datasets and accelerating materials discovery.

generative model↗

Predicting nutrition and environmental factors associated with female reproductive disorders using a knowledge graph and random forests

Female reproductive disorders (FRDs) are common health conditions that may present with significant symptoms. Diet and environment are potential areas for FRD interventions. We utilized a knowledge graph (KG) method to predict factors associated with common FRDs (for example, endometriosis, ovarian cyst, and uterine fibroids). We harmonized survey data from the Personalized Environment and Genes Study (PEGS) on internal and external environmental exposures and health conditions with biomedical ontology content. We merged the harmonized data and ontologies with supplemental nutrient and agricultural chemical data to create a KG. We analyzed the KG by embedding edges and applying a random forest for edge prediction to identify variables potentially associated with FRDs. We also conducted logistic regression analysis for comparison. Across 9765 PEGS respondents, the KG analysis resulted in 8535 significant or suggestive predicted links between FRDs and chemicals, phenotypes, and diseases. Amongst these links, 32 were exact matches when compared with the logistic regression results, including comorbidities, medications, foods, and occupational exposures. Mechanistic underpinnings of predicted links documented in the literature may support some of our findings. Our KG methods are useful for predicting possible associations in large, survey-based datasets with added information on directionality and magnitude of effect from logistic regression. These results should not be construed as causal but can support hypothesis generation. This investigation enabled the generation of hypotheses on a variety of potential links between FRDs and exposures. Future investigations should prospectively evaluate the variables hypothesized to impact FRDs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Plasma proteomics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and severity reveals impact on Alzheimer’s and coronary disease pathways

Identification of proteins dysregulated by COVID-19 infection is critically important for better understanding of its pathophysiology, building prognostic models, and identifying new targets. Plasma proteomic profiling of 4,301 proteins was performed in two independent datasets and tested for the association for three COVID-19 outcomes (infection, ventilation, and death). We identified 1,449 proteins consistently associated in both datasets with any of these three outcomes. We subsequently created highly accurate models that distinctively predict infection, ventilation, and death. These proteins were enriched in specific biological processes including cytokine signaling, Alzheimer’s disease, and coronary artery disease. Mendelian randomization and gene network analyses identified eight causal proteins and 141 highly connected hub proteins including 35 with known drug targets. Our findings provide distinctive prognostic biomarkers for two severe COVID-19 outcomes, reveal their relationship to Alzheimer’s disease and coronary artery disease, and identify potential therapeutic targets for COVID-19 outcomes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Implicit fast sweeping method for hyperbolic systems of conservation laws

Implicit time-accurate methods are often used to integrate stiff problems where explicit schemes impose severe time step restrictions. This paper presents an efficient numerical framework based on the Fast Sweeping Method (FSM) for solving linear and nonlinear hyperbolic systems of conservation laws. The solution at each discrete location is computed by sweeping the numerical domain in several predetermined directions that follow the causality of the characteristic families. The use of a fractional step strategy eliminates the need for a solution selection criterion while one-sided stencils limit the number of sweeps to at most 2 d for d space dimensions. This work focuses on the first-order implicit upwind method since it constitutes the building block for high-order conservative schemes. For problems where the degree of stiffness evolves over time, implicit-explicit hybridization can be accomplished with the same algorithm by simply switching the stencil at each time level. As opposed to traditional implicit solvers, the sweeping method does not require a local time linearization of the fluxes thereby preserving the nonlinear stability properties of the original implicit scheme. It also avoids the large computational and memory requirements associated with solving large block-diagonal systems of equations. Here, a series of one- and two-dimensional test cases are presented for the inviscid Burgers' equation and the reactive Euler equations. The results indicate that the implicit FSM can allow a major reduction in the number of time steps even in the presence of discontinuous solution profiles.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Correlation of Early-Stage Growth Process Conditions with Dislocation Evolution in MOCVD-Based GaP/Si Heteroepitaxy

To identify the complex relationships between early-stage growth processes and the resultant defect microstructure in GaP/Si heteroepitaxy, a holistic study of several key metal-organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) parameters was conducted, focusing on Si surface preparation and GaP atomic layer epitaxy (ALE) based nucleation processes. Here, crystalline defects related to the lattice mismatch and/or interfacial heterovalency, namely misfit dislocations (MD), threading dislocations (TD), and stacking fault pyramids (SFP), were quantitatively characterized via electron channeling contrast imaging (ECCI) and correlated against the different process variations. Choice of Si surface preparation method between the two examined (dilute SiH4 annealing versus Si2H6 based homoepitaxy) had little impact on resultant GaP film morphology and defect content, whereas differing GaP ALE nucleation conditions produced much more substantial changes. In particular, the initial precursor species (tert-butylphosphine versus triethygallium) and ALE cycle purge times both yielded significant influence over threading dislocation densities (TDD) in thin (100 nm), post-critical thickness GaP/Si films, with TDD spanning two orders of magnitude, from 6.7×10 7 cm -2 to 7.1×10 5 cm -2 , depending on the specific process conditions employed. SFP densities were also found to follow a similar trend, ranging from 2.0×10 7 cm -2 to 1.8×10 5 cm -2 , but with no apparent causal relationship between SFP density and TDD. To help explain the dramatic differences observed, detailed, large-area MD network characterization was used to provide statistically-relevant quantitative analyses of the critical dislocation dynamics (introduction rates and glide velocities) associated with the different process variants. These extracted values are then correlated against the ALE process variants to provide insight into the potential mechanistic roles of the different growth processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evidence-based indicator approach to guide preliminary environmental impact assessments of hydropower development

Global expansion of hydropower resources has increased in recent years to meet growing energy demands and fill worldwide gaps in electricity supply. However, hydropower induces significant environmental impacts on river ecosystems - impacts that are addressed through environmental impact assessment (EIA) processes. The need for effective EIA processes is increasing as environmental regulations are either stressed in developing countries undertaking rapid expansion of hydropower capacity or time- and resource-intensive in developed countries. Part of the challenge in implementing EIAs lies in reaching a consensus among stakeholders regarding the most important environmental factors as the focus of impact studies. To help address this gap, we developed a weight-of-evidence approach (and toolkit) as a preliminary and coarse assessment of the most relevant impacts of hydropower on primary components of the river ecosystem, as identified using river function indicators. Through a science-based questionnaire and predictive model, users identify which environmental indicators may be impacted during hydropower development as well as those indicators that have the highest levels of uncertainty and require further investigation. Furthermore, an assessment tool visualizes inter-dependent indicator relationships, which help formulate hypotheses about causal relationships explored through environmental studies. We apply these tools to four existing hydropower projects and one hypothetical new hydropower project of varying sizes and environmental contexts. We observed consistencies between the output of our tools and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission licensing process (inclusive of EIAs) but also important differences arising from holistic scientific evaluations (our toolkit) versus regulatory policies. The tools presented herein are aimed at increasing the efficiency of the EIA processes that engender environmental studies without loss of rigor or transparency of rationale necessary for understanding, considering, and mitigating the environmental consequences of hydropower.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The bill alignment test: Identifying trade-offs with residential rate design options

The proliferation of smart meter data allows the application of new analytic methods to inform regulatory deliberations. The bill alignment test (BAT) method, which compares the costs allocated to each residential customer with their electric bill, is introduced to help regulators consider how a proposed rate design balances various regulatory criteria. The BAT requires an explicit statement of preferences by policymakers or stakeholders and choices about allocating residual costs unassociated with customer-level causality. The BAT is applied to more than 35,000 smart-meter customer load profiles to assess the trade-offs associated with proposed rate designs. Here this example demonstrates the impact of residual cost allocation preferences and tariff design choices on proposed tariff evaluation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Classification and computation of extreme events in turbulent combustion

In the design of practical combustion systems, ensuring safety and reliability is an important requirement. For instance, reliably avoiding lean blowout, flame flashback or inlet unstart is critical for ensuring safe operation. Currently, the science of predicting such events is based on prior experience, limited modeling or diagnostic tools and purely statistical approaches. Even though computational and experimental tools for studying combustion devices have vastly advanced in the last three decades, the analysis of such failure events has not been pursued widely. While the use of data for model development and calibration is being widely accepted, the extension to failure events introduces numerous challenges. In particular, the focus here is on so-called data-poor problems, where the cost of generating data is extremely high and is not easily amenable to existing computational and experimental approaches. Data-poor problems are particularly relevant when related to extreme events (also called anomalous events) that can lead to catastrophic failure of the system. It is argued that transient events that describe such failure can have different causal mechanisms. To develop the scientific inference process, a classification of such problems is used to determine specific modeling paths as well as computational tools needed. Research opportunities in the emerging field of extreme event prediction are highlighted in order to identify critical and immediate needs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Do atoms age?

Time evolution generically entangles a quantum state with environmental degrees of freedom. The resulting increase in entropy changes the properties of that quantum system leading to “aging”. It is interesting to ask if this familiar property also applies to simple, single particle quantum systems such as the decay of a radioactive particle. We propose a test of such aging in an ion clock setup where we probe for temporal changes to the energies of the electronic state of an ion containing a radioactive nucleus. Such effects are absent in standard quantum mechanics and this test is thus a potent null test for violations of quantum mechanics. As a proof of principle, we show that these effects exist in causal non-linear modifications of quantum mechanics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗