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At least 469 records · Page 26

Projecting California Light-Duty Vehicle Attributes (2019-2035)

In this report, we estimated a set of future vehicle attribute scenarios for new light-duty vehicles for the California market using the Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool (ADOPT). ADOPT starts simulations with all existing vehicle makes and models and endogenously creates new vehicle models over time based on assumed technology improvements and market conditions. For this study, we simulated four scenarios with varied technology, policy, and electric vehicle infrastructure assumptions. We aggregated simulation results into up to 30 vehicle classes (covering size and price classifications) for each powertrain, for six powertrains. We simulated model years 2019 to 2035. We present results for four vehicle attributes: vehicle acceleration, fuel economy (including electric and gasoline for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs]), vehicle range, and vehicle purchase price. We also present results showing the estimated number of vehicle models available in each vehicle class over time. In the Mid scenario, which contains conditions between our most conservative and most optimistic assumptions for emerging electric and hydrogen technologies, we observe improvements in acceleration, range (for battery-electric vehicles [BEVs]), and vehicle purchase price for electric and hydrogen powertrains. In some cases, we project that consumer preferences lead to trade-offs between vehicle attributes, such as reduced fuel economy in exchange for improved acceleration. Conventional vehicles show modest improvements in fuel economy in these scenarios due to the high numbers of BEV and PHEV sales, which reduce the improvements required in conventional vehicles to meet fleet fuel economy standards. In scenarios with advanced technology assumptions (including reduced battery price and improved energy density), we observe further improvements in BEV range and price relative to the improvements in the Mid scenario.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

TRACER Carbonaceous Aerosols Thrust – University of California, Davis Field Campaign Report

The broader U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s TRacking Aerosol Convection interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) campaign aims to increase our understanding of convective cloud life cycles and aerosol-convection interactions. Our TRACER Carbonaceous Aerosols Thrust-University of California, Davis (TRACER-CAT-UCDavis) study complemented these broader aims by characterizing and quantifying the optical properties and composition of carbonaceous aerosols during part of the TRACER intensive sampling period (July 1- July 31, 2022) at the first ARM Mobile Facility (AMF1) main site (M1) in La Porte, Texas. Our measurements complemented the suite of instrumentation already provided by the AMF1, expanding the capabilities through deployment of unique, state-of-the-science instrumentation. The instrumentation included: (i) two cavity-attenuated phase shift spectroscopy single-scatter albedo (CAPS-SSA) instruments operating at 530 nm and 630 nm, and that were modified to characterize particle light absorption, extinction, and scattering at elevated humidities; (ii) the UC Davis dual-wavelength cavity ringdown-photoacoustic spectrometer (CRD-PAS), which characterizes dry particle extinction and absorption at 405 nm and 532 nm; (iii) a soot particle aerosol mass spectrometer (SP-AMS) that operated in “laser only” mode that characterized the size-dependent compositions of black carbon (BC)-containing particles; (v) a thermal denuder, to remove coatings on particles; and (vi) a scanning electrical mobility sizer (SEMS), to characterize particle mobility diameters from 10-1300 nm. Our measurements occurred alongside complementary observations made by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) during the TRACER-CAT-LANL study, including a humidified CAPS-SSA instrument operating at 450 nm. Our primary scientific interest is in understanding the relationship between particle composition and light absorption, with a particular focus on the influence of water uptake. While it is known that coatings on BC can enhance absorption, the extent to which this occurs in the atmosphere and the specific role that water plays as a coating remain unclear. The TRACER-CAT-UCDavis measurements were made with near-complete coverage for the CRD-PAS, SP-AMS, and SEMS throughout the intensive period. The UC Davis humidified CAPS-SSA instruments had significant challenges with operation owing to the demanding conditions (large temperature fluctuations, high humidity), exacerbated by supply chain issues that delayed resolution of these challenges. However, the humidified CAPS-SSA instrument operated by LANL operated throughout the intensive period with near-complete coverage. The dry light extinction measurements from the CRD-PAS measurements and the LANL CAPS-SSA exhibited a good correlation, although the CAPS-SSA systematically measured greater extinction values than expected. While all instruments, with the exception of an aerodynamic particle sizer (APS), measured behind a common particulate matter (PM)2.5 μm cyclone, the greater extinction measured by the LANL CAPS-SSA compared to the CRD-PAS may have resulted from different losses of larger particles in the sampling lines from the cyclone to the instruments; the tubing length was shorter from the cyclone to the LANL CAPS-SSA, consistent with this idea. A summary of the TRACER-CAT-UCDavis measurements, along with some of the TRACER-CAT-LANL measurements, are shown in the figure below. Notably, there were periods when the contributions of presumed dust were substantial and even dominated the observed light extinction and absorption. Also, there was a clear shift in the behavior of submicron particles from before July 16, 2022 to after, with the prior period exhibiting regular episodes of new particle formation and the latter period exhibiting rapid variations in the concentrations of small particles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic Rupture Simulations of the Mw7.2 1992 Landers,California, Earthquake

An important part of the simulation technique implemented in the Recipe is the earthquake rupture characterization based on established empirical scaling relationships between source parameters and seismic moment. The scaling relationships used in the rupture characterization are derived from recorded data and are tested against dynamic and kinematic rupture models of crustal earthquakes. Currently, a revised three-stage source scaling relationship between the source rupture area and seismic moment of inland crustal earthquakes, initially proposed by Irikura and Miyake, is being used. Recent analysis of results obtained with the Recipe for the 2016 M7.1 Kumamoto earthquake performed by several researchers, including the PI, Arben Pitarka, indicate that in order to reproduce the near-fault long-period ground motions and the permanent displacements, observed during surface-rupturing earthquakes, the recipe needs modifications to the kinematic rupture parametrization in the shallow crustal weak zone. In particular, improvements are required in characterizing the slip rate function at shallow depths, above the sesimogenic zone. The main objective of this research project was the development of a dynamic rupture model for the Mw7.2 1992 Landers, California earthquake. The dynamic rupture model was used to derive kinematic rupture parameters, such as slip, slip-rate, rupture time distributions, and slip rate functions in the weak (0-4km) and seismogenic crustal zones. In addition to the knowledge gained from the dynamic rupture modeling of Chi-chi, Ridgecrest, Kumamoto and other crustal earthquakes, studied by the PI, the rupture characterization of the Landers earthquake can be helpful in updating the conventional recipe for broadband ground motion simulations of crustal earthquakes with shallow rupture. The project emphasizes the need for performing physics-based earthquake rupture modeling which ultimately will inform further improvements of rupture characterization. In particular, the modeling of rupture dynamics for recorded earthquakes, and numerical simulations for different rupture scenarios, provides physical constrains on slip evolution in time and space, used in adjustments of empirical source scaling relationships for large crustal earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

REopt Techno-Economic Analyses for Energy Resilience Projects in Bakersfield, California [Slides]

This slide deck presents the REOpt analysis results for three community resilience centers in Bakersfield, California: East Bakersfield, Wasco, and Lamont. The results describes techno-economic considerations and resilience performance of various solar PV and solar plus storage microgrids that the three sites could consider installing. The results also clearly describe assumptions and limitations associated with this analysis and is intended to support the Bakersfield community's organizing efforts around developing community resilience centers that uplift disadvantaged and marginalized community voices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Potential Impacts of Dynamic Electricity Pricing in California: Load Shape and Customer Bill Impacts Under Elastic Customer Response

The increasing penetration of renewable energy in California has intensified grid management challenges, exemplified by the “duck curve” and the resulting need for steep ramping and curtailment of renewables. To address these issues, dynamic electricity tariffs that vary in near-real time are being considered to incentivize customers to shift demand and support the grid. This study extends previous work on the bill impacts of such tariffs in the absence of load response by quantifying the system-level and customer impacts of load response based on customer price elasticity. Customer-level load response modeling was conducted using meter data from 411,000 customers across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Customer demand elasticity was estimated using literature-based values, with scenarios ranging from low to high elasticity, including an automation-enhanced scenario. Results indicate that universal adoption of, and response to, dynamic tariffs can significantly reduce peak net load (by 15%) and maximum ramping requirements (by 20%) with moderate elasticity, delivering demand response resources comparable to or exceeding current programs at all elasticity levels. Bill analysis shows that, when responding elastically to dynamic prices, most non-PV customers experience modest savings, while PV customers may see higher effective rates due to lower compensation for exports during low-price periods. Emissions analysis reveals a reduction in per-kWh emissions system-wide, with a total absolute load increase of 2% accompanied by a negligible absolute emissions increase. The study concludes that while dynamic tariffs offer substantial grid benefits, customer bill savings under modeled response behaviors may be too modest to drive widespread adoption without additional incentives or enabling technologies. Future research should model flexible loads and advanced control technologies with greater fidelity to better represent the potential opportunities of dynamic tariffs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Policy Brief: California’s Cap-and-Trade Program and Future Direction

The Cap-and-Trade Program, a key part of California’s climate efforts, is a way to gradually increase what it costs an entity (usually a company) to release greenhouse gases into the air. The Program’s goal is to encourage a transition away from fossil fuels. By starting with a relatively low carbon price and steadily increasing it, the Program aims to secure the most cost-effective emission reductions first and gradually move to more expensive ones over time. This design supports economic progress while delivering emission cuts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Hydrological Alteration Caused by Climate Change and Reservoir Operations in the San Joaquin River Basin, California

Freshwater aquatic ecosystems are highly sensitive to flow regime alteration caused by anthropogenic activities, including river regulation and atmospheric warming-induced climate change. Either climate change or reservoir operations are among the main drivers of changes in the flow regime of rivers globally. Using modeled unregulated and simulated regulated streamflow under historical and future climate scenarios, this study evaluated potential changes to the flow regime due to climate change and reservoir operations for the major tributaries of the San Joaquin River Basin, California United States. We selected a set of Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) to evaluate historical and projected future trends of streamflow dynamics: rise and fall rates, durations and counts of low and high pulses, and the magnitude of extremes. Results show that most indicators have pronounced departures from baseline conditions under anticipated future climate conditions given existing reservoir operations. For example, the high pulse count decreases during regulated flow conditions compared to increased frequency under unregulated flow conditions. Finally, we observed a higher degree of flow regime alteration due to reservoir operations than climate change. The degree of alteration ranges from 1.0 to 9.0% across the basin among all future climate scenarios, while reservoir operations alter the flow regime with a degree of alteration from 8.0 to 25%. This study extends multi-dimensional hydrologic alteration analysis to inform climate adaptation strategies in managed river systems.

Maskey, Mahesh L.↗

Giant kelp genetic monitoring before and after disturbance reveals stable genetic diversity in Southern California

Given the impacts of climate change and other anthropogenic stressors on marine systems, there is a need to accurately predict how species respond to changing environments and disturbance regimes. The use of genetic tools to monitor temporal trends in populations gives ecologists the ability to estimate changes in genetic diversity and effective population size that may be undetectable by traditional census methods. Although multiple studies have used temporal genetic analysis, they usually involve commercially important species, and rarely sample before and after disturbance. In this study, we run a temporal analysis of giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera , genetic diversity over the scope of 10 years (2008-2018) using the same microsatellite marker panel to assess the genetic consequences of disturbance in several populations of giant kelp ( Macrocystis pyrifera ) in the Southern California Bight. The study is a rare pre- and post-disturbance microsatellite analysis that included declines to giant kelp caused by the 2015/16 El Nino Southern Oscillation event. We used canopy biomass estimated by remote sensing (Landsat) to quantify the extent of disturbance to kelp beds, and sea surface temperature data to understand how kelp was pushed towards its temperature limits during this period. Despite prolonged periods with decreased canopy at several sites, no changes in genetic structure and allelic richness were observed. We argue that giant kelp in the region is best described as a “patchy population” system where true extinctions are rare. We discuss how deep refugia of subsurface sporophytes and cryptic microscopic life stages could have kept genetic diversity through disturbance. Given the increasing effects of climate change and uncertainty in modeling impacts of species with cryptic life history stages, we suggest further investigation to reveal the role such stages play in species resilience. Genetic monitoring studies of sites selected by remote census demographic and climate surveys should be continued in the future given the predicted impacts of climate change.

Klingbeil, III, William H.↗

Exploring Trait Trade-Offs for Fungal Decomposers in a Southern California Grassland

Fungi are important decomposers in terrestrial ecosystems, so their responses to climate change might influence carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics. We investigated whether growth and activity of fungi under drought conditions were structured by trade-offs among traits in 15 fungal isolates from a Mediterranean Southern California grassland. We inoculated fungi onto sterilized litter that was incubated at three moisture levels (4, 27, and 50% water holding capacity, WHC). For each isolate, we characterized traits that described three potential lifestyles within the newly proposed “YAS” framework: growth yield, resource acquisition, and stress tolerance. Specifically, we measured fungal hyphal length per unit litter decomposition for growth yield; the potential activities of the extracellular enzymes cellobiohydrolase (CBH), β -glucosidase (BG), β -xylosidase (BX), and N-acetyl- β - D -glucosaminidase (NAG) for resource acquisition; and ability to grow in drought vs. higher moisture levels for drought stress tolerance. Although, we had hypothesized that evolutionary and physiological trade-offs would elicit negative relationships among traits, we found no supporting evidence for this hypothesis. Across isolates, growth yield, drought stress tolerance, and extracellular enzyme activities were not significantly related to each other. Thus, it is possible that drought-induced shifts in fungal community composition may not necessarily lead to changes in fungal biomass or decomposer ability in this arid grassland.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Landscape Topography and Regional Drought Alters Dust Microbiomes in the Sierra Nevada of California

Dust provides an ecologically significant input of nutrients, especially in slowly eroding ecosystems where chemical weathering intensity limits nutrient inputs from underlying bedrock. In addition to nutrient inputs, incoming dust is a vector for dispersing dust-associated microorganisms. While little is known about dust-microbial dispersal, dust deposits may have transformative effects on ecosystems far from where the dust was emitted. Using molecular analyses, we examined spatiotemporal variation in incoming dust microbiomes along an elevational gradient within the Sierra Nevada of California. We sampled throughout two dry seasons and found that dust microbiomes differed by elevation across two summer dry seasons (2014 and 2015), which corresponded to competing droughts in dust source areas. Dust microbial taxa richness decreased with elevation and was inversely proportional to dust heterogeneity. Likewise, dust phosphorus content increased with elevation. At lower elevations, early season dust microbiomes were more diverse than those found later in the year. The relative abundances of microbial groups shifted during the summer dry season. Furthermore, mutualistic fungal diversity increased with elevation, which may have corresponded with the biogeography of their plant hosts. Although dust fungal pathogen diversity was equivalent across elevations, elevation and sampling month interactions for the relative abundance, diversity, and richness of fungal pathogens suggest that these pathogens differed temporally across elevations, with potential implications for humans and wildlife. This study shows that landscape topography and droughts in source locations may alter the composition and diversity of ecologically relevant dust-associated microorganisms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Comprehensive Economic Impacts ofWild Pigs on Producers of Six Crops in the South-Eastern US and California

Wild pigs (Sus scrofa) cause damage to agricultural crops in their native range as well as in the portions of the globe where they have been introduced. In the US, states with the highest introduced wild pig populations are Alabama, Arkansas, California, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Texas. The present study summarizes the first survey-based effort to value the full extent of wild pig damage to producers of six crops in these eleven US states. The survey was distributed by the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service in the summer of 2022 to a sample of 11,495 producers of corn (Zea mays), soybeans (Glycine max), wheat (Triticum spp.), rice (Oryza sativa), peanuts (Arachis hypogaea), and sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) in these 11 states. Our findings suggest that the economic burden of wild pigs on producers of these crops is substantial and not limited to the direct and most identifiable categories of crop damage (i.e., production value lost due to depredation, trampling and rooting). We estimate that the annual cost to producers of these six crops in the surveyed states in 2021 was almost USD 700 million.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Resource and Load Compatibility Assessment of Wind Energy Offshore of Humboldt County, California

Floating offshore wind is being considered in northern California as indicated by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management’s issuance of a lease consideration in the Humboldt Call Area. Humboldt County offers access to this enormous resource, but local electric load and transmission are limited. The potential impacts of offshore wind generators at three different scales were studied using a regional grid model of Humboldt County. Offshore wind generation was calculated using modeled wind speed data and 12-MW turbine specifications and integrated with projected load and historical generation. Offshore wind farms deployed in the Humboldt Call Area achieve annual capacity factors between 45% and 54% after losses and maintenance. Power output is variable between and within seasons, with full power output 30% of the time and no output approximately 20% of the time. Electricity from a 48-MW wind farm provides 22% of regional load with limited exports. A 144-MW wind farm serves 38% of local load, exporting 40% of its electricity with the extant 70-MW transmission capacity. A full build-out of 1836 MW would result in 88% curtailment with existing transmission. Across scenarios, offshore wind variability necessitates reliance on existing power plants to meet local demand in periods of low wind.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Factors Impacting Range Hood Use in California Houses and Low-Income Apartments

Venting range hoods can control indoor air pollutants emitted during residential cooktop and oven cooking. To quantify their potential benefits, it is important to know how frequently and under what conditions range hoods are operated during cooking. We analyzed data from 54 single family houses and 17 low-income apartments in California in which cooking activities, range hood use, and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) were monitored for one week per home. Range hoods were used for 36% of cooking events in houses and 28% in apartments. The frequency of hood use increased with cooking frequency across homes. In both houses and apartments, the likelihood of hood use during a cooking event increased with the duration of cooktop burner use, but not with the duration of oven use. Actual hood use rates were higher in the homes of participants who self-reported more frequent use in a pre-study survey, but actual use was far lower than self-reported frequency. Residents in single family houses used range hoods more often when cooking caused a discernible increase in PM 2.5 . In apartments, residents used their range hood more often only when high concentrations of PM 2.5 were generated during cooking.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗