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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Wall Upgrades for Energy Retrofits: A Techno-Economic Study

Homes built before 1992, when the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Building Energy Codes Program was established, represent approximately 68% of the residential building stock in the country. Up to 43% of these homes have little to no insulation in the walls and have very high air leakage rates of 10 or more air changes per hour at 50 pascals of pressure (ACH50). These issues can represent a substantial portion of unnecessary money spent on utility bills for homeowners, especially in the colder climates. There is a significant need for cost-effective, reliable retrofit methods for these homes that include air, moisture, and vapor controls which are considered best practices for high-performance new home construction. Well-tested and documented wall retrofit systems can help to achieve substantial energy savings and also improve durability, comfort, health, and resilience. In 2018, DOE’s Building Technologies Office awarded Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the University of Minnesota funding to complete a 3-year project to compare a range of residential wall retrofit systems that prioritized affordability, durability and energy savings potential. In addition to these core criteria, the ease-of-construction and the wide-scale applicability of the solutions also were considered. In this project, the research team identified, constructed, tested, simulated, and analyzed the feasibility and economics of 16 wall retrofit assemblies (14 test configurations and two baseline configurations).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2002

Algorithms for Autonomous GPS Orbit Determination and Formation Flying: Investigation of Initialization Approaches and Orbit Determination for HEO

This report summarizes the efforts to date in processing GPS measurements in High Earth Orbit (HEO) applications by the Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research (CCAR). Two specific projects were conducted; initialization of the orbit propagation software, GEODE, using nominal orbital elements for the IMEX orbit, and processing of actual and simulated GPS data from the AMSAT satellite using a Doppler-only batch filter. CCAR has investigated a number of approaches for initialization of the GEODE orbit estimator with little a priori information. This document describes a batch solution approach that uses pseudorange or Doppler measurements collected over an orbital arc to compute an epoch state estimate. The algorithm is based on limited orbital element knowledge from which a coarse estimate of satellite position and velocity can be determined and used to initialize GEODE. This algorithm assumes knowledge of nominal orbital elements, (a, e, i, omega, omega) and uses a search on time of perigee passage (tau(sub p)) to estimate the host satellite position within the orbit and the approximate receiver clock bias. Results of the method are shown for a simulation including large orbital uncertainties and measurement errors. In addition, CCAR has attempted to process GPS data from the AMSAT satellite to obtain an initial estimation of the orbit. Limited GPS data have been received to date, with few satellites tracked and no computed point solutions. Unknown variables in the received data have made computations of a precise orbit using the recovered pseudorange difficult. This document describes the Doppler-only batch approach used to compute the AMSAT orbit. Both actual flight data from AMSAT, and simulated data generated using the Satellite Tool Kit and Goddard Space Flight Center's Flight Simulator, were processed. Results for each case and conclusion are presented.

Axelrad, Penina↗
NASA NTRS2010

Application of a Near Infrared Imaging System for Thermographic Imaging of the Space Shuttle during Hypersonic Re-Entry

High resolution calibrated near infrared (NIR) imagery was obtained of the Space Shuttle s reentry during STS-119, STS-125, and STS-128 missions. The infrared imagery was collected using a US Navy NP-3D Orion aircraft using a long-range infrared optical package referred to as Cast Glance. The slant ranges between the Space Shuttle and Cast Glance were approximately 26-41 nautical miles at point of closest approach. The Hypersonic Thermodynamic Infrared Measurements (HYTHIRM) project was a NASA Langley led endeavor sponsored by the NASA Engineering Safety Center, the Space Shuttle Program Office and the NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate to demonstrate a quantitative thermal imaging capability. HYTHIRM required several mission tools to acquire the imagery. These tools include pre-mission acquisition simulations of the Shuttle trajectory in relationship to the Cast Glance aircraft flight path, radiance modeling to predict the infrared response of the Shuttle, and post mission analysis tools to process the infrared imagery to quantitative temperature maps. The spatially resolved global thermal measurements made during the Shuttle s hypersonic reentry provides valuable flight data for reducing the uncertainty associated with present day ground-to-flight extrapolation techniques and current state-of-the-art empirical boundary-layer transition or turbulent heating prediction methods. Laminar and turbulent flight data is considered critical for the development of turbulence models supporting NASA s next-generation spacecraft. This paper will provide the motivation and details behind the use of an upgraded NIR imaging system used onboard a Navy Cast Glance aircraft and describe the characterizations and procedures performed to obtain quantitative temperature maps. A brief description and assessment will be provided of the previously used analog NIR camera along with image examples from Shuttle missions STS-121, STS-115, and solar tower test. These thermal observations confirmed the challenge of a long-range acquisition during re-entry. These challenges are due to unknown atmospheric conditions, image saturation, vibration etc. This provides the motivation for the use of a digital NIR sensor. The characterizations performed on the digital NIR sensor included radiometric, spatial, and spectral measurements using blackbody radiation sources and known targets. An assessment of the collected data for three Space Shuttle atmospheric re-entries, STS-119, STS-125, and STS-128, are provided along with a description of various events of interest captured using the digital NIR imaging system such as RCS firings and boundary layer transitions. Lastly the process used to convert the raw image counts to quantitative temperatures is presented along with comparisons to the Space Shuttle's onboard thermocouples.

Zalameda, Joseph N.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improvement of Coal Power Plant Dry Cooling Technology through Application of Cold Thermal Energy Storage

The U.S. power infrastructure is currently heavily reliant on water cooling. The power plants in the U.S. account for approximately 40% of freshwater withdrawals, with 90% of it used in condenser cooling. The most used cooling technology in coal-fired power plants is a once-through condenser; however, this cooling method requires high water withdrawal rates and results in thermal pollution of the water source. Wet WCTs offer an alternative to once-through condensers due to much lower water withdrawals. However, these systems suffer from water consumption through evaporation making them undesirable options in areas subject to droughts and in arid areas. The direct dry cooled condensers (ACCs) and dry cooling towers (DCT) account for 1.8%, hybrid cooling (ACC + WCT) accounts for 0.5%, while other cooling technologies represent the rest (0.7%). The ACC/DCTs represent an attractive alternative for power plants; however, this technology has not been widely adopted in the US (less than 2% of power plants) due to its negative impact on plant performance. As a rule of thumb, dry cooling results in performance penalty equivalent to approximately 2%-point efficiency loss compared to wet cooling, although the actual magnitude varies with ambient dry bulb temperature, DBT which may vary considerably during the day. As DBT increases, the plant power output decreases, reaching a minimum at the hottest period of the day, which usually coincides with the highest electricity demand for air condition load. Therefore, performance of power plants using DCT/ACC cooling technology is the lowest during the summer mid-day when ambient temperature is the highest. For example, the decrease of the inlet air temperature to the DCT/ACC by 2 Deg C could generate up to 5% additional power at peak demand. It is, therefore, important to improve dry cooling technology to maintain the viability of coal-fired power plants in a carbon constrained future. The method for reducing the cooling air temperature and keeping it constant would mitigate this problem significantly. Objectives of this project were to develop, design, evaluate, and demonstrate a cost-effective system for improving performance of a DCT or ACC for thermal (coal-fired) power plant applications using a low-cost heat storage materials, such as pervious concrete (PC) and phase change material (PCM). Thus, the study focused on development of the system(s) that could be used to alleviate the difficulties in operating DCT/ACC during the summer months by storing cold energy during the nighttime in inexpensive materials PC and PCM and using it during the hottest period(s) of the day. Since very large quantities of cold energy need to be stored to make an impact on performance of a large power plant, it is essential that the storage materials and associated cold energy storage design(s) are inexpensive and the system is simple to build, maintain and operate. To achieve the project objectives, a comprehensive approach, including material development and characterization, component and system modeling, and laboratory- and prototype-scale experiments, was employed including modeling of the system components and of the entire system, development (engineering) of the materials for the heat storage modules of the Cold Thermal Energy Storage System (CTESS) and determination of their properties, design, manufacturing and setup of the laboratory- and prototype-scale test facility and testing, design, manufacturing and setup of the prototype-scale test facility. A modular design of CTESS was employed, where representative modules were designed as the integrated direct contact heat exchanger and thermal energy storage (TES) system. CTESS modules were manufactured and tested. Two prototype-scale designs of the CTESS modules were developed and tested. The use of CTESS increases plant generation increases since it lowers air temperature entering ACC/DCT and keeps it constant during the hottest time of the day. For a PCM-based CTESS, the ambient air temperature is lowered close to the PCM phase change temperature. The duration of the cooling effect depends on the latent heat and mass of PCM in the CTESS. For this project, commercial grade CaCl2 hexahydrate (CaCl2·6H2O or CC6) PCM with phase change temperature of 25 Deg. C was used due to its low cost. For practical reasons, the CTESS was designed to maintain the cooling effect for four hours. The low phase change temperature associated with the commercial grade PCM used in CTESS results in considerably higher improvement in net generation compared to the laboratory (pure) grade. The resistance to heat transfer results in lower net generation compared to the ideal case where resistance to heat transfer is zero. The results demonstrate that CTESS is effective in improving the performance of a dry cooling system. However, its effectiveness depends on the relationship between the ambient air conditions and PCM phase change temperature. As is the case with the heat rejection system, for the best performance, the PCM used in CTESS would need to be matched to the ambient air conditions. The results obtained in this report for selected geographical locations are valid for CC6 and demonstrate that the level of performance to be achieved by the technology will be location-dependent, as is the case with the air cooled condensers. The methodology for engineering of PC-PCM-based heat storage medium is applicable to other PCMs that may need to be used for other ambient air conditions and geographical locations.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRS2005

Surface structure of an invariant manifold of a Halo Orbit (extended abstract)

We extract the surface structure of the unstable invariant manifold tube projected into position space, of a halo orbit near L2. We do this by using transversal planes to intersect trajectories that approximate the tube. From these intersection points we construct spline-interpolated cross section curves which give a good idea of the structure of the tube. For example, we show that, for the value of (mu) we use, the tube pinches, develops a self-intersection, develops loop-inside-tube structure, pinches some more, and so on. We also construct surfaces made of quadrilaterals and triangles from these cross-sections. The transversal planes are obtained by taking planes orthogonal to a curve that follows the general shape of the tube. One such curve we use, is the unstable invariant manifold of the equilibrium point L2 itself. In another example, we take a circle that follows the tube, as the curve for finding planes transversal to the tube. Our method is complementary to the method of taking cross-sections of constant time (the isochronous method), as used by some other researchers. The isochronous method is good at revealing the temporal structure of trajectories on a tube. However, due to the unequal speeds of different trajectories, it is harder to use for long length surface extraction. In contrast, using our method, we show cross-sections of the tube through an angular extent of nearly (pi) during which the tube becomes extremely convoluted. We also show that tubes of different energies, that start out in certain ordering, do not obey the ordering after a while. Our work is motivated by applications to space mission design.

invariant manifold↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning to Correct Climate Projection Biases

The fidelity of climate projections is often undermined by biases in climate models due to their simplification or misrepresentation of unresolved climate processes. While various bias correction methods have been developed to post-process model outputs to match observations, existing approaches usually focus on limited, low-order statistics, or break either the spatiotemporal consistency of the target variable, or its dependency upon model resolved dynamics. We develop a Regularized Adversarial Domain Adaptation (RADA) methodology to overcome these deficiencies, and enhance efficient identification and correction of climate model biases. Instead of pre-assuming the spatiotemporal characteristics of model biases, we apply discriminative neural networks to distinguish historical climate simulation samples and observation samples. The evidences based on which the discriminative neural networks make distinctions are applied to train the domain adaptation neural networks to bias correct climate simulations. We regularize the domain adaptation neural networks using cycle-consistent statistical and dynamical constraints. An application to daily precipitation projection over the contiguous United States shows that our methodology can correct all the considered moments of daily precipitation at approximately $1^\circ$ resolution, ensures spatiotemporal consistency and inter-field correlations, and can discriminate between different dynamical conditions. Our methodology offers a powerful tool for disentangling model parameterization biases from their interactions with the chaotic evolution of climate dynamics, opening a novel avenue toward big-data enhanced climate predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using Separation-Enhanced Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometry to Enable Increased Renewable Carbon Content in Transportation Fuels (CRADA 525)

Stable isotope ratio measurements of carbon atoms using isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) can be an effective tool for quantifying biogenic carbon in co-processed fuels, with results approaching the precision and accuracy of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). The lower cost of an IRMS may enable deployment to refineries, improving access and analysis turnaround times (≤2 hours), and, by extension, provide data that can allow process optimization to maximize renewable carbon in desired refinery products. This project explored the integration of chemical separation with IRMS analyses to enable highly detailed tracking of biogenic carbon into fuel product streams separated by boiling point range, chemical class, or specific compound. Forty-nine fuels and fuel components of fossil and biogenic origin, spanning gasoline and diesel boiling point ranges, were received from three refiners and were analyzed for their δ 13 C values via IRMS. Results spanned a 13 C range from ca. 10‰ to 44‰ and reflect materials derived from sustainable sources (e.g., C4 or C3 plants, animal-based pathways, syngas) or from fossil-derived fuels. Common ranges are approximately 18‰ to 9‰ and approximately 30‰ to 20‰ for C4 and C3 plants, respectively, and approximately 34‰ to 24‰ and approximately 70‰ to 33‰ for petroleum-derived fuels and methane, respectively. Fuel-like standards were developed and tested using direct-injection elemental analyzer (EA) IRMS for liquid fuels. This method was compared with the published methods, yielding statistically similar results. Four blend curve sets were produced ranging from 0% to 100% of a fuel containing biogenic carbon, focusing on 0% to 10% biogenic carbon. Linear fits were the most applicable for two of the four blend curve sets; however, two sets were found to exhibit slightly quadratic behavior, which was more pronounced in low biogenic blend samples, necessitating second-order fits. The origin of the slight quadratic behavior remains unclear; however, the discussion points to possible interpretations. CanmetENERGY thoroughly characterized a majority of the samples using one- and two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC and GC×GC, respectively) and other analyses. Selected samples were subjected to solid phase extraction (SPE) for saturate, olefin, aromatic, and polar (SOAP) analysis, and the resulting solvent-diluted fractions containing saturates and aromatics were returned to Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), where the solvent was removed via evaporation or physical separation using GC techniques. Characterization and separations provided an understanding of saturate and aromatic content, as well as boiling point ranges for each sample and sample fraction. Samples resulting from SPE were examined using EA-IRMS and gas chromatography combustion IRMS (GC-C-IRMS) analyses. Both approaches suggest that the range in values between end-members can be increased by selecting the paraffinic or aromatic fraction of the end-member or by selecting among individual compounds resulting from GC separation of the paraffinic fractions. Considerable work remains to put these approaches into practice and statistically validate the benefit for using a fraction or individual compound over bulk analysis of a sample. However, initial results suggest that separations provide advantages for samples having blend ratios of less than 10% biogenic blendstocks. 13 C results showed statistically similar biofuel blend results to those obtained at PNNL, although additional work is needed to obtain better reproducibility. Select samples were sent to Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for IRMS measurements and Beta Analytics for AMS measurements. This work suggests that IRMS and AMS yield closely comparable results and in some circumstances, IRMS could serve as a surrogate for AMS. While additional work is needed to better resolve statistical advantages for separations and better show the comparable nature of IRMS and AMS in both the biogenic carbon analysis of bulk chemical classes, initial results from this study suggest that these should be pursued in order to proliferate this approach for quantifying biogenic carbon in transportation fuels to the refinery level, thereby potentially enabling process optimization in co-processing scenarios.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1994

An approximate Riemann solver for magnetohydrodynamics (that works in more than one dimension)

An approximate Riemann solver is developed for the governing equations of ideal magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). The Riemann solver has an eight-wave structure, where seven of the waves are those used in previous work on upwind schemes for MHD, and the eighth wave is related to the divergence of the magnetic field. The structure of the eighth wave is not immediately obvious from the governing equations as they are usually written, but arises from a modification of the equations that is presented in this paper. The addition of the eighth wave allows multidimensional MHD problems to be solved without the use of staggered grids or a projection scheme, one or the other of which was necessary in previous work on upwind schemes for MHD. A test problem made up of a shock tube with rotated initial conditions is solved to show that the two-dimensional code yields answers consistent with the one-dimensional methods developed previously.

Powell, Kenneth G.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Alternating Direction Decomposition with Strong Bounding and Convexification (ADDSBC) for Solving Security Constrained AC Unit Commitment Problems

This project aims to develop efficient and robust computational methods for solving the security-constrained unit commitment and alternating current optimal power flow problem (SC-UC-ACOPF). The SC-UC-ACOPF problem is at the center of the short-term operation of the U.S. Power Grid. It is solved every week, every day, and every 10 minutes to plan for the optimal action of electricity generation and consumption by minimizing the generation cost and maintaining power system reliability against potential disruptions of equipment failures. In mathematical terms, SC-UC-ACOPF is a challenging large-scale mixed-integer nonlinear optimization model. This means that the decisions involve both discrete variables, e.g. the turning on and off of generators and switching of transmission lines and transformers, and continuous decisions, e.g. the amount of energy generated by each generator and the power flows in the power grid. The physics of the power flow is described by nonlinear equations involving real and reactive power and bus voltages. Another key feature is the large number of contingencies, i.e. the system needs to stay reliable in face of failure of any one equipment, such as transmission lines and generators. The U.S. power grids are extremely complicated and large scale with more than 5,000 generators, 50,000 buses, and 100,000 high-voltage transmission lines, making the SC-UC-ACOPF a very large-scale computation challenge. The research developed in this project aims to solve the SC-UC-ACOPF problems in the three timescales, i.e. weekly, daily, and every 10-min. The proposed computational methods are built on a principled algorithmic approach of decomposition and penalization. More specifically, the algorithm develops spatial and temporal decomposition by exploiting the strong temporal coupling and weak spatial coupling of the UC problem and the complementary feature, i.e. weak temporal coupling and strong spatial coupling of the ACOPF problem. The algorithm also leverages recent progresses in strong convex relaxation of ACOPF. A unique feature of the proposed approach is that it generates a valid, global upper bound on the optimal maximum profit. In this way, a global optimality gap is available to measure the quality of the solution. To further speed up computation, the research team has developed a plethora of effective heuristics to strengthen the iterative penalty-based decomposition framework. For instance, a heuristic is developed to construct inner approximations of the time coupling constraints within the time decoupled problems. Contingencies are pre-screened and low-rank matrix computation is exploited to find the almost unique solution to each contingency. A novel heuristic for line switching is proposed and tested with positive impacts on instances where line switching is beneficial. Taking a systematic approach and carefully handling every detail of the problem pays off. The TIM-GO’s performance throughout the trials and the final event was stellar. TIM-GO garnered the second highest total prize money and is ranked in the top three positions across all categories of comparison.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2021

Newmark-Type Pseudo-Three-Dimensional Back-Analysis of Co-Seismic Landslides in Egkremnoi, Lefkada, Greece

A pseudo-three-dimensional (pseudo-3D) methodology to back-analyze coseismic landslides was developed and applied to 68mapped landslides, which occurred over approximately 1 km2area in Egkremnoi, Greece, during the 2015 Mw6.5 Lefkada earthquake. The methodology is based on a one-dimensional (1D) Newmark-type sliding block model to assess instability and a spatial projection in 3D topography to derive landslide geometry. The strength parameters for modeled landslides that best match the landslide location, area, and volume were derived through an iterative scheme that optimizes the match using predefined matching criteria. The range of different-sized landslides produced shear strength estimates from ~10 to 300 kPa and led to the derivation of a regionally averaged strength envelope characterized by a cohesion of 6 kPa and a friction angle of 53°for the highly fractured limestones that are encountered in this area. Compared to previous full 3Dslope stability analyses in this area, the friction angle using this methodology was found to be generally consistent, but the cohesion was lower. The presented methodology can provide a computationally efficient method to estimate the average shear strength of a geologic unit over large areas, especially where extensive field and laboratory tests on the materials are unavailable or difficult to conduct.

Weibing Gong↗
DOE OSTI2020

Overview of the Long-Term Stewardship of the Remediated Uranium Mining and Milling Sites in Europe - 20079

Uranium mining in Europe began in the ' 40's for civil and military applications. The great majority of the uranium mines have now been closed and are going through the stages of decommissioning and/or rehabilitation. Today, the main uranium producers are outside the EU; only a few mines are still in operation inside the EU. In 2006, the situation of the uranium mines and mill tailings in Europe, identifying the tailings liabilities, their status, the plans for these sites and any associated hazards, was reported to the EC. The legacy of uranium mines and mill tailing disposals in the EU are located mainly in 12 Member States where, in total, 87 tailing objects were identified at 63 sites. The volume of each one of these tailings disposal varies from a few thousand to several tens of million m{sup 3}. The majority of these sites are no longer in operation. More than 40 tailing embankments have already been completely remediated. Approximately 20 are currently being remediated while for the remaining objects, remediation has yet to start. After ten years, and for a few cases where the respective projects have not yet been completed, it seems that most of Europe's uranium mines and milling legacies were remediated according to acceptable environmental standards. Nevertheless, Europe is about to face a new challenge that comes from the concluded remediation projects for which an effective set of measures for coordinated institutional control, known as 'long-term stewardship', is needed including, in most cases, continuous and active maintenance. Moreover, the uncertainty of what will happen to these sites if institutional control fails at some point in time is a major concern. This work presents a summary of the situation and current issues of the uranium mine and mill tailings in Europe and their remediation status. It addresses not only the management of existing uranium mine and mill legacies but also the methods and strategies that have been used to prevent the creation of new future legacy sites from uranium mines still in operation. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Semiclassical theory and the Koopman-van Hove equation *

Abstract The phase space Koopman-van Hove (KvH) equation can be derived from the asymptotic semiclassical analysis of partial differential equations. Semiclassical theory yields the Hamilton–Jacobi equation for the complex phase factor and the transport equation for the amplitude. These two equations can be combined to form a nonlinear semiclassical version of the KvH equation in configuration space. There is a natural injection of configuration space solutions into phase space and a natural projection of phase space solutions onto configuration space. Hence, every solution of the configuration space KvH equation satisfies both the semiclassical phase space KvH equation and the Hamilton–Jacobi constraint. For configuration space solutions, this constraint resolves the paradox that there are two different conserved densities in phase space. For integrable systems, the KvH spectrum is the Cartesian product of a classical and a semiclassical spectrum. If the classical spectrum is eliminated, then, with the correct choice of Jeffreys–Wentzel–Kramers–Brillouin (JWKB) matching conditions, the semiclassical spectrum satisfies the Einstein–Brillouin–Keller quantization conditions which include the correction due to the Maslov index. However, semiclassical analysis uses different choices for boundary conditions, continuity requirements, and the domain of definition. For example, use of the complex JWKB method allows for the treatment of tunneling through the complexification of phase space. Finally, although KvH wavefunctions include the possibility of interference effects, interference is not observable when all observables are approximated as local operators on phase space. Observing interference effects requires consideration of nonlocal operations, e.g. through higher orders in the asymptotic theory.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Producing High-fidelity Synthetic Population Ensembles at Scale

Used within social simulations, synthetic population ensembles enable uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for obtaining more robust model inference and prediction. A synthetic population ensemble is a series of plausible virtual reconstructions of an area’s population at the granularity of people and residences, generated stochastically to preserve privacy of the source population survey’s respondents. In this paper, we demonstrate the production of large synthetic population ensembles for the US via Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s UrbanPop framework to support modeling of high spatial resolution energy affordability metrics from nationwide social surveys in collaboration with the fusionACS project. Our initial task involves creating ensembles for 17 US metropolitan areas, each consisting of 41 population instances (a base realization and 40 replicates). To accomplish this task at scale, we configured an integrated system comprised of a research cloud, virtual containerization, GPU-enhanced functionality, and a dual API/CLI to interact with UrbanPop’s maturing Likeness Python ecosystem. We observe a reduction in theoretical execution time while maintaining high-fidelity approximations of residential totals by metropolitan area and the demographic characteristics of neighborhoods. We discuss expansion of our approach to produce synthetic population ensembles for the entire US, particularly plans to establish automated workflows for job orchestration to increase computational efficiency, as well as provide outlook for broadening applications of the ensembles.

Gaboardi, James [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247766826)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fermilab Booster loss modelling and rebalancing using Bayesian methods

Fermilab Booster is being upgraded for the PIP-II project to support 20Hz ramp rate at higher intensities. Loss trip limits determine the achievable peak power. To meet PIP-II requirements, losses need to be halved as compared to current levels. Losses primarily occur at injection and transition crossing, with both gradually increasing and threshold-like intensity-dependent behaviors. The existing simulation models are not yet good enough for quantitative loss predictions. In practice, it will be necessary to tune up the Booster using iterative methods and operator intuition. In this paper we present an effort to systematically model Booster losses using active learning (Bayesian exploration) techniques, and subsequently to rebalance them for higher trip limit margins. We first created several sets of spatially and temporally isolated orbit and optics knobs, and trained Gaussian process models for each beam loss monitor as well as beam current. This is a complex task due to safety and timing requirements – we discuss mitigations such as uncertainty constraints and approximate fitting. Once models are stable, we perform large-scale single and multi-objective tuning using scalarized objectives made up of critical beam loss locations. Our results demonstrate significant rebalancing of losses, increasing trip margins, as well as an overall improvement in beam transmission efficiency. We are exploring how to combine existing simulations with experimental data and automate the collection procedure so that more advanced surrogate models can be created over time.

Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗
NASA NTRS1982

A study of dirigibles for use in the Peruvian Selva Central Region

The potential for dirigibles as transports in the Selva Central region of Peru was evaluated by means of a mission and economic analysis. A total requirement to transport over 19 million tons (t) of agricultural produce, lumber, and meat was projected by the year 2004. A primary route involving zones for loading and delivering this cargo was identified. Although dirigibles are capable of short field operation, all existing airfields must be enlarged in width to allow for all conditions of wind and weather and to provide space for overnight mooring. A maintenance base and operations headquarters, complete with hangar and other service facilities would be required. The quantities of cargo to be carried establish requirements for fleets of dirigibles of various sizes and capacities. Cargo capacities of 5 to 100 tons were identified. Fleet sizes up to 106 dirigibles (in 20 t capacities) would be required. Dirigibles were assumed to be of the nonrigid type except in the 100 t category for which rigid characteristics were assumed. A method of determining dirigible costs was developed. The values derived were then applied to an economic analysis to determine initial investment and operating costs. It was found that larger dirigibles of approximately 20 t capacities or higher could offer significant cost benefits over airplanes, provided cruise speeds were higher than 100 km/hr.

Mayer, N. J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

An Integrated Hydrological and Water Management Study of the Entire Nile River System - Lake Victoria to Nile Delta

The Nile basin River system spans 3 million km(exp 2) distributed over ten nations. The eight upstream riparian nations, Ethiopia, Eretria, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Congo, Tanzania and Kenya are the source of approximately 86% of the water inputs to the Nile, while the two downstream riparian countries Sudan and Egypt, presently rely on the river's flow for most of the their needs. Both climate and agriculture contribute to the complicated nature of Nile River management: precipitation in the headwaters regions of Ethiopia and Lake Victoria is variable on a seasonal and inter-annual basis, while demand for irrigation water in the arid downstream region is consistently high. The Nile is, perhaps, one of the most difficult trans-boundary water issue in the world, and this study would be the first initiative to combine NASA satellite observations with the hydrologic models study the overall water balance in a to comprehensive manner. The cornerstone application of NASA's Earth Science Research Results under this project are the NASA Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) and the USDA Atmosphere-land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model. These two complementary research results are methodologically independent methods for using NASA observations to support water resource analysis in data poor regions. Where an LDAS uses multiple sources of satellite data to inform prognostic simulations of hydrological process, ALEXI diagnoses evapotranspiration and water stress on the basis of thermal infrared satellite imagery. Specifically, this work integrates NASA Land Data Assimilation systems into the water management decision support systems that member countries of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD, located in Nairobi, Kenya) use in water resource analysis, agricultural planning, and acute drought response to support sustainable development of Nile Basin water resources. The project is motivated by the recognition that accurate, frequent, and spatially distributed estimates of the water balance are necessary for effective water management. This creates a challenge for watersheds that are large, include data poor regions, and/or span multiple nations. All of these descriptors apply to the Nile River basin, yet successful management of the Nile is critical for development and political stability in the region. For this reason, improved hydrological data to support cooperative water management in the Nile basin is a priority for USAID, the US State Department, the World Bank and other international organizations. In this project, the U.S. based research team is working with partners at RCMRD, Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), and their member national-level agencies to develop satellite-based land cover maps, satellite-derived evapotranspiration estimates (using the ALEXI algorithm), and NASA's Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) customized to match identified information needs. The cornerstone applied sciences product of the project is the development of a customized "Nile LDAS" that will produce optimal estimates of hydrological states and fluxes, as vetted against the in situ observations of NBI and RCMRD member organizations and independent satellite-derived hydrological estimates. Nile LDAS will be applied to improve the reliability of emerging Decision Support Systems in applications that include drought monitoring, reservoir management, and irrigation planning. The end-users such as RCMRD, NBI, Ethiopian and Kenya Meteorological and Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNet) will be the eventual benefactors of this work. There will be a capacity building process involving the above end-user organizations and transfer the models and the results for these organizations to execute for future use. The team has already initiated this study and the early results of first years' work are shown. The plan is to complete this work by late 2013.

Habib, Shahid↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Post-Flight Performance Analysis of Navigation and Advanced Guidance Algorithms on a Terrestrial Suborbital Rocket Flight

There is currently renewed interest in robotic and crewed landers for a return to the lunar surface. Advanced guidance and navigation algorithms are essential to accurately delivering cargo and crew safely to the moon successfully. This paper reports the overall performance of an integrated set of navigation and guidance algorithms flown on a terrestrial suborbital rocket up to an altitude of approximately 100km. The navigation algorithm consists of an onboard extended Kalman Filter (EKF) that ingests multiple sensor measurements, one of which is the output from a terrain relative navigation (TRN) algorithm that cross-references camera images to on-board satellite imagery to perform feature correlation within the camera image. The guidance algorithm solves for a 6-degree-of-freedom (DoF) optimal trajectory using a successive convexification method during powered descent. The altitude range as well as the landing dynamics experienced during this test flight are realistic for an extraterrestrial landing and provide an invaluable data set to gauge the current development of these landing algorithms in an effort to advance the overall software readiness levels (SRL). This paper will delve into different aspects of each algorithm and present an analysis of the in-flight performance of the algorithms. This flight was conducted under the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safe and Precise Landing Integrated Capabilities Evolution (SPLICE) project focused on technology advancement for landing applications.

Guidance↗
NASA NTRS2016

Health and Climate Impacts of Ocean-Going Vessels in East Asia

East Asia has the most rapidly growing shipping emissions of both CO2 and traditional air pollutants, but the least in-depth analysis. Full evaluation of all pollutants is needed to assess the impacts of shipping emissions. Here, using an advanced method based on detailed dynamic ship activity data, we show that shipping emissions in East Asia accounted for 16% of global shipping CO2 in 2013, compared to only 4-7% in 2002-2005. Increased emissions lead to large adverse health impacts, with 14,500-37,500 premature deaths per year. Global mean radiative forcing from East Asian shipping is initially negative, but would become positive after approximately eight years for constant current emissions. As a large fraction of vessels are registered elsewhere, joint efforts are necessary to reduce emissions and mitigate the climate and health impacts of shipping in the region.

climate change impacts↗