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NASA NTRS1985

Integrated risk/cost planning models for the US Air Traffic system

A prototype network planning model for the U.S. Air Traffic control system is described. The model encompasses the dual objectives of managing collision risks and transportation costs where traffic flows can be related to these objectives. The underlying structure is a network graph with nonseparable convex costs; the model is solved efficiently by capitalizing on its intrinsic characteristics. Two specialized algorithms for solving the resulting problems are described: (1) truncated Newton, and (2) simplicial decomposition. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated using data collected from a control center in the Midwest. Computational results with different computer systems are presented, including a vector supercomputer (CRAY-XMP). The risk/cost model has two primary uses: (1) as a strategic planning tool using aggregate flight information, and (2) as an integrated operational system for forecasting congestion and monitoring (controlling) flow throughout the U.S. In the latter case, access to a supercomputer is required due to the model's enormous size.

Mulvey, J. M.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data from: Comparing traditional and Bayesian approaches to ecological meta-analysis

Despite the wide application of meta-analysis in ecology, some of the traditional methods used for meta-analysis may not perform well given the type of data characteristic of ecological meta-analyses. We reviewed published meta-analyses on the ecological impacts of global climate change, evaluating the number of replicates used in the primary studies (ni) and the number of studies or records (k) that were aggregated to calculate a mean effect size. We used the results of the review in a simulation experiment to assess the performance of conventional frequentist and Bayesian meta-analysis methods for estimating a mean effect size and its uncertainty interval. Our literature review showed that ni and k were highly variable, distributions were right-skewed, and were generally small (median ni =5, median k=44). Our simulations show that the choice of method for calculating uncertainty intervals was critical for obtaining appropriate coverage (close to the nominal value of 0.95). When k was low (<40), 95% coverage was achieved by a confidence interval based on the t-distribution that uses an adjusted standard error (the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman, HKSJ), or by a Bayesian credible interval, whereas bootstrap or z-distribution confidence intervals had lower coverage. Despite the importance of the method to calculate the uncertainty interval, 39% of the meta-analyses reviewed did not report the method used, and of the 61% that did, 94% used a potentially problematic method, which may be a consequence of software defaults. In general, for a simple random-effects meta-analysis, the performance of the best frequentist and Bayesian methods were similar for the same combinations of factors (k and mean replication), though the Bayesian approaches had higher than nominal (>95%) coverage for the mean effect when k was very low (k<15). Our literature review suggests that many meta-analyses that used z-distribution or bootstrapping confidence intervals may have over-estimated the statistical significance of their results when the number of studies was low; more appropriate methods need to be adopted in ecological meta-analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2001

Porosity and Variations in Microgravity Aerogel Nano-Structures: New Laser Speckle Characterization Methods - 2

The transition from sol to gel is a process that is critical to the properties of engineered nanomaterials, but one with few available techniques for observing the dynamic processes occurring during the evolution of the gel network. Specifically, the observation of various cluster aggregation models, such as diffusion-limited and reaction-limited cluster growth can be quite difficult. This can be rather important as the actual aggregation model can dramatically influence the mechanical properties of gels, and is significantly affected by the presence of convective flows, or their absence in microgravity. We have developed two new non-intrusive optical methods for observing the aggregation processes within gels in real time. These make use of the dynamic behavior of laser speckle patterns produced when an intense laser source is passed through a gelling sol. The first method is a simplified time-correlation measurement, where the speckle pattern is observed using a CCD camera and information on the movement of the scattering objects is readily apparent. This approach is extremely sensitive to minute variations in the flow field as the observed speckle pattern is a diffraction-based image, and is therefore sensitive to motions within the sol on the order of the wavelength of the probing light. Additionally, this method has proven useful in determining a precise time for the gel-point, an event often difficult to measure. Monitoring the evolution of contrast within the speckle field is another method that has proven useful for studying aeration. In this case, speckle contrast is dependent upon the size (correlation length) and number of scattering centers, increasing with increasing size, and decreasing with increasing numbers. The dynamic behavior of cluster growth in gels causes both of these to change simultaneously with time, the exact rate of which is determined by the specific aggregation model involved. Actual growth processes can now be observed, and the effects of varying gravity fields on the growth processes qualitatively described. Results on preliminary ground-based measurements have been obtained.

Hunt, A. J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigation of Cyrene organosolv fractionation of softwood biomass and alkaline post-incubation

Cyrene organosolv fractionation effectively extracted 78% of lignin from recalcitrant softwood biomass pine at a mild temperature of 120°C. However, the enzymatic conversion of the fractionated cellulose-rich solid did not improve significantly. Alkali post-incubation of the fractionated cellulose fraction notably enhanced the glucan conversion. This phenomenon has also been observed in other organosolv processes, but how this approach transforms pretreated biomass has not yet been comprehensively investigated. In this study, small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) was employed to understand the structural changes in biomass during fractionation and post-incubation at the nanometer scale. Further, no lignin aggregation was found on the microfibrils, whereas the distance between the microfibrils increased after pretreatment and decreased after alkaline post-incubation. These results suggests that the Cyrene molecules remained between the microfibrils and were removed by post-incubation. In addition, the pine lignin recovered after pretreatment was characterized by NMR to understand the impact of Cyrene pretreatment on the lignin structure.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

An End-To-End Earthquake Detection Method for Joint Phase Picking and Association Using Deep Learning

Earthquake monitoring by seismic networks typically involves a workflow consisting of phase detection/picking, association, and location tasks. In recent years, the accuracy of these individual stages has been improved through the use of machine learning techniques. Here, in this study, we introduce a new end-to-end approach that improves overall earthquake detection accuracy by jointly optimizing each stage of the detection pipeline. We propose a neural network architecture for the task of multi-station processing of seismic waveforms recorded over a seismic network. This end-to-end architecture consists of three sub-networks: a backbone network that extracts features from raw waveforms, a phase picking sub-network that picks P- and S-wave arrivals based on these features, and an event detection sub-network that aggregates the features from multiple stations to associate and detect earthquakes across a seismic network. We use these sub-networks together with a shift-and-stack module based on back-projection that introduces kinematic constraints on arrival times, allowing the neural network model to generalize to different velocity models and to variable station geometry in seismic networks. We evaluate our proposed method on the STanford EArthquake Dataset (STEAD) and on the 2019 Ridgecrest, CA earthquake sequence. The results demonstrate that our end-to-end approach can effectively pick P- and S-wave arrivals and achieve earthquake detection accuracy rivaling that of other state-of-the-art approaches. Because our approach preserves information across tasks in the detection pipeline, it has the potential to outperform approaches that do not.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Next Generation Exercise Device (NGED): Advancing Exercise Capabilities for Future Space Missions Through Biomechanical Modeling

BACKGROUND As space exploration extends to long-duration missions on the Moon and Mars, maintaining astronaut health and fitness becomes increasingly critical. The Next Generation Exercise Device (NGED), developed and tested by the HumanWorks Lab in NASA Johnson Space Center's (JSC) Software, Robotics, and Simulation Division, aims to address this challenge through innovative approaches. This study presents the development and evaluation of an NGED system, focusing on its adaptability to various mission scenarios, including prospective use in a Lunar Pressurized Rover (LPR). Central to this project is the application of biomechanical modeling to optimize exercise efficacy and safety in microgravity and partial gravity environments. The project is a collaborative effort with the Human Health and Performance group at Johnson Space Center, ensuring a comprehensive approach to astronaut well-being that integrates biomechanical principles with practical exercise solutions. The NGED represents the next generation of exercise capabilities for missions in space, on the Moon and Mars, with a specific focus on applications such as the LPR. METHODS AND RESULTS Data collection for NGED development was conducted with two motor-driven Beyond Power Voltra I [1] systems and a custom test structure to allow placement of the cable-based devices on the ground, at shoulder height, and overhead. The collection was performed in JSC’s Prototype Immersive Technology (PIT) Lab, utilizing an OptiTrack motion capture system and AMTI force platform, to enable detailed biomechanical analysis via OpenSim [2,3]. Motion capture data were collected for three subjects representing different body types and statures. The marker set used was an enhanced version of the full-body Plug-in Gait marker set [4], with additional markers strategically placed for the primary objective of informing exercise volume requirements. Subjects performed a series of 17 exercises, carefully selected to engage various muscle groups, including novel spaceflight exercises such as skiing (ergometer style), lateral pulldowns, wood chops, triceps extensions, and flies, with load variations ranging from 10 to 90 pounds to maintain kinematic form. This comprehensive approach allowed for a thorough evaluation of the NGED's performance across a wide range of motions and loads. The biomechanical modeling and analysis were conducted using a modified OpenSim Full Body Rajagopal Model [4,5] and also scaled to the maximum and minimum anthropometry provided in NASA-STD-3001 [6]. Volumetric convex hulls were generated based on model marker trajectories and aggregated into geometric assemblies. These can be placed in models of vehicle designs to assess fit to protect for exercise as well as to adapt NGED exercise to fit available space. Preliminary findings from the collection indicate that the NGED prototype demonstrates significant adaptability across varying user anthropometrics and exercise types. The device showed consistent performance in load-bearing exercises, with subjects able to perform exercises effectively while maintaining proper biomechanical form. CONCLUSION NGED represents a forward-looking advancement in exercise capabilities for future space missions. In the future, this system can be used to capture valuable metrics (e.g., isometric mid-thigh pull for force output measurements, assessments of postural muscle strength, overall isometric strength). Its versatility in accommodating various exercises and user physiques, coupled with the ability to provide targeted biomechanical loading, makes it a promising approach for maintaining astronaut health during long-duration missions to the Moon and Mars. Future work will focus on refining the NGED based on initial biomechanical findings, leveraging the detailed insights provided by motion capture and analysis techniques. Particular emphasis will be placed on optimizing its use within the confined spaces of a LPR and other space habitats. This work contributes significantly to NASA's goals of supporting human health and performance in deep space exploration, paving the way for sustainable long-term presence beyond Low Earth Orbit through advanced, biomechanically-informed exercise solutions.

C Wang↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Large Language Model for Determining Partial Tripping of Distributed Energy Resources

Knowing the status of individual distributed energy resources, i.e., being tripped or not, after a contingency can inform the development of an aggregated DER model. Here, this letter presents a large language model application to determine the partial tripping of distributed energy resources depending on the types, locations, and duration of faults in the transmission network. The large language model, or more specifically BERT-based approach can streamline the fault information into tokenized input, which not only reduces the complexity of the machine learning model but also demonstrates a robust performance with only limited data sets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Flexible Service Contracting for Risk Management within Integrated Transmission and Distribution Systems

The general objective of our project has been to investigate the ability of Independent Distribution System Operators (IDSOs), functioning as linkage agents for Integrated Transmission and Distribution (ITD) systems, to facilitate the flexible availability and usage of reserve in support of ITD system operations. This general objective is in accordance with Order 2222 of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), titled “Participation of Distributed Energy Resource Aggregations in Markets Operated by Regional Transmission Organizations and Independent System Operators”. The Final Rule for FERC Order 2222 was issued on September 17, 2020. The primary contribution of our project is that we have formulated an innovative energy management Transactive Energy Design (TES) approach for ITD systems that provides promising support for our project objective. Specifically, we have developed a new type of IDSO-managed TES design for distribution system operations, as well as new types of swing contracts permitting IDSOs to participate in transmission system operations as providers of reserve harnessed from distribution system resources in return for appropriate compensation. Together, these design elements constitute a scalable market-based approach facilitating efficient reserve procurement for ITD system operations from a fuller range of power resources. The efficacy of our approach has been demonstrated by means of detailed conceptual analyses as well as test case simulations. To implement the latter, we have developed the ITD TES Platform V2.0, a computational platform that permits the modeling and software implementation of ITD system operations over time. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) energy region has been used as the empirical anchor for the development of this platform. Our conceptual and test-case work has been reported in a Wiley/IEEE Press book, two refereed book chapters, and seven refereed journal articles. The key components comprising the ITD TES Platform V2.0 have been released as documented open-source software at online GitHub repositories.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

2023 Artemis Crew Health and Performance System Model Development

While the NASA Human Research Program (HRP) utilizes a Crew Health and Performance (CHP) System to represent all the Agency’s efforts to ensure the health and performance of NASA astronauts, there is no shared mental model of a CHP system at NASA. Some groups may consider a CHP system to be only a medical kit, while others may not be using the concept at all. To facilitate the integration of functions and capabilities to ensure astronaut health and performance during vehicle development, HRP has proposed a CHP Shared Mental Model derived from the NASA Human Health, Medical, and Performance Spaceflight Standards (NASA-STD-3001 Vol.1/Vol.2). [1] Even though many vehicle, ground, and communication systems as well as mission operations are modeled for the Artemis Campaigns, no mission level CHP system model was created to achieve the intent of the HRP CHP Shared Mental Model. The lack of this model renders it difficult to visualize and understand how the many programs work together to provide the necessary cross program functions and capabilities to ensure the health and performance of the crew throughout an Artemis mission. For this purpose, the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element of HRP developed a CHP system model for the Artemis III and IV missions to provide a view of how each program contributes to and interacts with the overall CHP system. To develop the 2023 Artemis CHP system model, ExMC leveraged existing data and models from the Moon to Mars Program Office, the Office of the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) and the Orion, Gateway, Extravehicular Activity and Human Surface Mobility (EHP) and Human Landing System (HLS) programs. By using a Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach, existing requirements, functions, and concepts of operations were combined to create a single system model focused on representing CHP from the launch to the return to Earth segments of the Artemis III and IV missions. Additionally, by incorporating the HRP Systems Platform for Aggregating and Relating Capabilities, or SPARC tool, the data from the programs was also related back to the 2nd volume of the NASA Human Health, Medical, and Performance Spaceflight Standard (NASA-STD-3001, Vol.2) and the human system risks identified by the Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The first version of the 2023 Artemis CHP system model was baselined in Fall of 2023 after the model was demonstrated to be a potentially useful tool for systems engineers integrating CHP capabilities in vehicle development as well as members of the Health and Medical Technical Authority providing oversight of those programs. The model may also be useful to any stakeholder of astronaut health and performance by providing insights on how an Artemis mission satisfies the NASA Human Health, Medical, and Performance Spaceflight Standards as well as how they mitigate the HSRB Human System Risks. This presentation highlights how the model was developed and the possible benefits of the model. [1] NASA HRP (2022), Crew Health and Performance System Whitepaper

Systems engineering↗

NASA NTRS2024

2023 Artemis Crew Health and Performance (CHP) System Model Development

Systems engineering↗

DOE OSTI2021

Mesoscale-architecture-based crack evolution dictating cycling stability of advanced lithium ion batteries

The cracking phenomenon of Ni-rich NMC (LiNixMnyCo1-x-yO2, x = 0.6) secondary particles is frequently discovered and believed to be one of critical reasons deteriorating the long-term cycling stability of NMC cathode in lithium ion batteries (LIBs). However, the initiation and evolution of those cracks is still controversial due to the limited quantification especially by in situ monitoring, leading to the challenge of identifying an efficient approach to inhibit the formation of the fractures during repeated cycling. Herein, the irreversible, anisotropic cycling lattice and mesoscale expansion/shrinkage of nano-grain during the first cycle, as revealed by in situ X-ray diffraction (XRD) and in situ atomic force microscopy (AFM), have been quantified and confirmed to be the dominant driving forces of microcracks initiation at the grain boundaries. These microcracks preferentially nucleates at the core region with random oriented nano-grains in early stage. The further growth and aggregation of microcracks into macrocrack eventually results in microfracture propagation radially outward to the periphery region with more uniform nano-grain orientation. This mesoscale nano-grain architecture controlled cracking process highlight the importance of predictive synthesis of cathode materials with controllable multiscale crystalline architecture for high-performance LIBs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Transfer learning for probabilistic localization of hidden cracks in concrete structures

Abstract The utility of discriminative supervised learning models built using multiple training-data sources is investigated for hidden crack localization in concrete. Feed-forward neural network (FFNN) is chosen as the model architecture, and transfer learning is used to assimilate the information obtained from different sources (computational physics simulations and laboratory experiments). The labeled training data consists of values of a damage index and the known locations of hidden cracks. The classification models need to learn how the presence of damage (hidden cracks) affects the damage index at different sensors for different test conditions. To this end, diagnostic FFNN models are built by sequentially adding and training new hidden layers to assimilate labeled information from computer models (different model geometries, test conditions, crack lengths, crack locations) and laboratory experiments on a plain cement slab. These transfer learning-based models are then used to localize damage in concrete specimens that reflect real-world conditions (i.e., specimens with steel reinforcement and randomly distributed aggregate). The actual damage state in these specimens is determined by extracting cores and performing petrographic studies on the extracted cores. The damage probability estimated by transfer learning-based models is compared with the petrographic damage rating index (DRI) to identify the most suitable approach to train the diagnostic models. The transfer learning-based diagnostic methodology shows promise and could be used in various structural health monitoring applications, where sufficient labeled data are typically not available from a single data source.

Miele, S.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optimal Demand Response Incorporating Distribution LMP with PV Generation Uncertainty

The utilization of aggregated demand-side flexibility via demand response (DR) has become a promising pathway for the integration of renewable energy resources in power systems. Nowadays, there are several management strategies for DR such as the price-based transactive control strategies. However, many of such existing price-based control strategies neglect the physics and operational constraints of the underlying distribution networks when computing the price, raising concerns regarding their theoretical and practical values. This paper studies this issue and investigates optimal DR (ODR) by incorporating the distribution locational marginal price (DLMP). In particular, we discuss DR in connection with DLMPs and propose a multiperiod bilevel optimization problem to find the ODR strategy. Here, the objective is to minimize the peak load, load fluctuation, and payments of load aggregators. In addition, a robust bilevel ODR model is formulated to provide a robust ODR strategy while minimizing operating costs under the worst-case realization of uncertainties; this mitigates the impact of forecasting errors on renewable energy resources. Then, we propose an efficient solution approach by employing the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions and strong duality. Simulation results are presented to illustrate the mutual impacts of the interaction between DR and DLMP and the benefits of the robust ODR strategy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Three-Dimensional Imaging Lidar for Characterizing Particle Fields and Organisms in the Mesopelagic Zone

The ocean’s mesopelagic zone is largely uncharacterized despite its vital role in sustaining ocean ecosystems. The composition, cycling, and fate of particle fields in the mesopelagic lacks an integrative multi-scale understanding of organism migration patterns, distribution, and diversity. This problem is addressed by combining complementary technologies with overlapping size spectra, including profiler mounted optical scattering sensors, profiler, and ship mounted acoustic devices, and a custom Unobtrusive Multi-Static Lidar Imager (UMSLI). This unique sensor suite can observe distributions of particles including organisms over a six order of magnitude dynamic size range, from microns to meters. Overlapping size ranges between different methods allows for cross-validation. This work focuses on the lidar imaging measurements and optical backscattering and attenuation, covering a combined particle size range of 0.1 mm to several cm. Particles at the small end of this range are sized using an existing backscattering time series inversion method after Briggs et al. (2013). Larger particles are resolved with UMSLI over an expanding volume using three-dimensional photo-realistic laser serial imaging. UMSLI’s image rectifying ability over time allows for derivation of particle concentration, size, and spatial distribution. Technical details on the development and post-processing methods for the novel UMSLI system are provided. Image resolved particle size distributions (PSDs) revealed a size shift from smaller to larger particles (>0.5 mm) as indicated by flatter slopes from dawn (slope = 2.6) to dusk (slope = 3.0). PSD trends are supported by an optical backscatter and transmissometer time series inversion analysis. Size shifts in the particle field are largely attributed to aggregation effects. Images support evidence of temporal variation between dusk and dawn stations through statistical analysis of particle concentrations for particle sizes 0.50–5.41 mm. Spatial analysis of the particle field revealed a dominantly uniform distributed marine snow background. The importance and potential of integrated approaches to studying particle and organism dynamics in ocean environments are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1986

Rapid fluctuations in solar flares

Study of rapid fluctuations in the emission of radiation from solar flares provides a promising approach for probing the magneto-plasma structure and plasma processes that are responsible for a flare. It is proposed that elementary flare bursts in X-ray and microwave emission may be attributed to fine structure of the coronal magnetic field, related to the aggregation of photospheric magnetic field into magnetic knots. Fluctuations that occur on a subsecond time-scale may be due to magnetic islands that develop in current sheets during magnetic reconnection. The impulsive phase may sometimes represent the superposition of a large number of the elementary energy-release processes responsible for elementary flare bursts. If so, the challenge of trying to explain the properties of the impulsive phase in terms of the properties of the elementary processes must be faced. Magnetic field configurations that might produce solar flares are divided into a number of categories, depending on: whether or not there is a filament; whether there is no current sheet, a closed current sheet, or an open current sheet; and whether the filament erupts into the corona, or is ejected completely from the Sun's atmosphere. Analysis of the properties of these possible configurations is compared with different types of flares, and to Bai's subdivision of gamma-ray/proton events.

Sturrock, Peter A.↗

NASA NTRS1995

The Averaged Face Growth Rates of lysozyme Crystals: The Effect of Temperature

Measurements of the averaged or macroscopic face growth rates of lysozyme crystals are reported here for the (110) face of tetragonal lysozyme, at three sets of pH and salt concentrations, with temperatures over a 4-22 C range for several protein concentrations. The growth rate trends with supersaturation were similar to previous microscopic growth rate measurements. However, it was found that at high super-saturations the growth rates attain a maximum and then start decreasing. No 'dead zone' was observed but the growth rates were found to approach zero asymptotically at very low super-saturations. The growth rate data also displayed a dependence on pH and salt concentration which could not be characterized solely by the super-saturation. A complete mechanism for lysozyme crystal growth, involving the formation of an aggregate growth unit, mass transport of the growth unit to the crystal interface and faceted crystal growth by growth unit addition, is suggested. Such a mechanism may provide a more consistent explanation for the observed growth rate trends than those suggested by other investigators. The nutrient solution interactions leading to the formation of the aggregate growth unit may, thus, be as important as those occurring at the crystal interface and may account for the differences between small molecule and protein crystal growth.

Nadarajah, Arunan↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measurement-informed Dynamic Aggregation of Distribution Systems

This paper proposes a measurement-informed dynamic aggregation methodology in order to create equivalent representations of distribution systems that are compatible with large-scale transmission analysis. By optimizing an equivalent feeder parameters using time-series measurements of active power, reactive power, and voltage at the Point of Interconnection (POI), the approach yields simplified yet dynamically accurate equivalents. Implemented in PSCAD with models of photovoltaic–battery systems, three-phase motors, and static loads, the method employs hybrid differential evolution and bounded least-squares optimization laying the foundation for for real-time state estimation and optimized sensor placement in distribution networks.

Ahmed, Kazi Ishrak [University of Tennessee, Knoxv↗

NASA NTRS2016

Crowd Sourcing Approach for UAS Communication Resource Demand Forecasting

Congressional attention to Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) has caused the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to move the National Airspace System (NAS) Integration project forward, but using guidelines, practices and procedures that are yet to be fully integrated with the FAA Aviation Management System. The real drive for change in the NAS will to come from both UAS operators and the government jointly seeing an accurate forecast of UAS usage demand data. This solid forecast information would truly get the attention of planners. This requires not an aggregate demand, but rather a picture of how the demand is spread across small to large UAS, how it is spread across a wide range of missions, how it is expected over time and where, in terms of geospatial locations, will the demand appear. In 2012 the Volpe Center performed a study of the overall future demand for UAS. This was done by aggregate classes of aircraft types. However, the realistic expected demand will appear in clusters of aircraft activities grouped by similar missions on a smaller geographical footprint and then growing from those small cells. In general, there is not a demand forecast that is tightly coupled to the real purpose of the mission requirements (e.g. in terms of real locations and physical structures such as wind mills to inspect, farms to survey, pipelines to patrol, etc.). Being able to present a solid basis for the demand is crucial to getting the attention of investment, government and other fiscal planners. To this end, Mosaic ATM under NASA guidance is developing a crowd sourced, demand forecast engine that can draw forecast details from commercial and government users and vendors. These forecasts will be vetted by a governance panel and then provide for a sharable accurate set of projection data. Our paper describes the project and the technical approach we are using to design and create access for users to the forecast system.

air traffic↗