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Survival probability of rising launch vehicle subjected to wind shear loads - statistical load survey method, and wind profile analyses for design considerations
The Venera measurements of wind speed along with the Mariner measurements of lower-region of strong turbulence are evidence for a wide band of variable high speed retrograde horizontal winds which girdle Venus at the equator. In one interpretation of the Mariner 10 UV photographs, the 20km region above the top of the visible cloud is characterized by variable high-speed retrograde horizontal winds which orbit Venus with an average period of 4 earth days, and by many features indicating vertical convection. This suggests that the Venera-Mariner band of winds at 45km extends to the top of the UV cloud and beyond, and that the upper-region of strong turbulence detected by the Mariners may result from vertical convection currents carried along by high speed horizontal winds. In another interpretation, the predominate motions are attributed to wavelike disturbances with a 4-day period. For this case the upper-region of strong turbulence may be due in large part to vertical wind-shear resulting from a rapid decrease in wind speed within a relatively short distance about the Venera-Mariner band of high speed winds.
A longitudinal digital guidance and control law for steep glideslopes using MLS (Microwave Landing System) data is developed for CTOL aircraft using modern estimation and control techniques. The control law covers the final approach phases of glideslope capture, glideslope tracking, and flare to touchdown for automatic landings under adverse weather conditions. The control law uses a constant gain Kalman filter to process MLS and body-mounted accelerometer data to form estimates of flight path errors and wind velocities including wind shear. The flight path error estimates and wind estimates are used for feedback in generating control surface commands. Results of a digital simulation of the aircraft dynamics and the guidance and control law are presented for various wind conditions.
Multiple-Doppler radar observations of a non-severe Illinois thunderstorm with nearly rectilinear vertical wind shear and storm motion related to the wind at a height of 2.5 km are discussed. The cell examined had a radar top of 10 km, and reflectivities of 60 dB(Z). Attention is given the evolution of updraft, downdrafts, and vorticity in this cell, where typical magnitudes were 12 m/sec, 8 m/sec and 0.005/sec, respectively. The main downdrafts were found to be the upshear downdraft during the growth period of the cell, and the left bank downdraft during the mature and downdraft periods. The location of upshear downdraft at mid to upper levels resembles the Lennon and Doswell (1979) conceptual model, as well as three-dimensional cloud model results of severe storms.
Electric field and plasma density data gathered on a sounding rocket launched from Uchinoura Space Center, Japan, reveal a complex electrodynamics associated with sporadic-E layers and simultaneous observations of quasiperiodic radar echoes. The electrodynamics are characterized by spatial and temporal variations that differed considerably between the rocket's up-leg and down-leg traversals of the lower ionosphere. Within the main sporadic-E layer (95- 110 km) on the up-leg, the electric fields were variable, with amplitudes of 2 4 mV1m that changed considerably within altitude intervals of 1-3 km. The identification of polarization electric fields coinciding with plasma density enhancements and/or depletions is not readily apparent. Within this region on the down-leg, however, the direction of the electric field revealed a marked change that coincided precisely with the peak of a single, narrow sporadic-E plasma density layer near 102.5 km. This shear was presumably associated with the neutral wind shear responsible for the layer formation. The electric field data above the sporadic-E layer on the upleg, from 110 km to the rocket apogee of 152 km, revealed a continuous train of distinct, large scale, quasi-periodic structures with wavelengths of 10-15 km and wavevectors oriented between the NE-SW quadrants. The electric field structures had typical amplitudes of 3-5 mV/m with one excursion to 9mV/m, and in a very general sense, were associated with perturbations in the plasma density. The electric field waveforms showed evidence for steepening and/or convergence effects and presumably had mapped upwards along the magnetic field from the sporadic-E region below.
The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily morning forecast for ground and space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) must issue forecast advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect peak gusts for >= 25, >= 35, and >= 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. In Phase I of this task, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a cool-season (October - April) tool to help forecast the non-convective peak wind from the surface to 300 ft at KSC/CCAFS. During the warm season, these wind speeds are rarely exceeded except during convective winds or under the influence of tropical cyclones, for which other techniques are already in use. The tool used single and multiple linear regression equations to predict the peak wind from the morning sounding. The forecaster manually entered several observed sounding parameters into a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI), and then the tool displayed the forecast peak wind speed, average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, the timing of the peak wind and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed 35, 50 and 60 kt. The 45 WS customers later dropped the requirement for >= 60 kt wind warnings. During Phase II of this task, the AMU expanded the period of record (POR) by six years to increase the number of observations used to create the forecast equations. A large number of possible predictors were evaluated from archived soundings, including inversion depth and strength, low-level wind shear, mixing height, temperature lapse rate and winds from the surface to 3000 ft. Each day in the POR was stratified in a number of ways, such as by low-level wind direction, synoptic weather pattern, precipitation and Bulk Richardson number. The most accurate Phase II equations were then selected for an independent verification. The Phase I and II forecast methods were compared using an independent verification data set. The two methods were compared to climatology, wind warnings and advisories issued by the 45 WS, and North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) forecast winds. The performance of the Phase I and II methods were similar with respect to mean absolute error. Since the Phase I data were not stratified by precipitation, this method's peak wind forecasts had a large negative bias on days with precipitation and a small positive bias on days with no precipitation. Overall, the climatology methods performed the worst while the MesoNAM performed the best. Since the MesoNAM winds were the most accurate in the comparison, the final version of the tool was based on the MesoNAM winds. The probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the warning thresholds were based on the one standard deviation error bars from the linear regression. For example, the linear regression might forecast the most likely peak speed to be 35 kt and the error bars used to calculate that the probability of >= 25 kt = 76%, the probability of >= 35 kt = 50%, and the probability of >= 50 kt = 19%. The authors have not seen this application of linear regression error bars in any other meteorological applications. Although probability forecast tools should usually be developed with logistic regression, this technique could be easily generalized to any linear regression forecast tool to estimate the probability of exceeding any desired threshold . This could be useful for previously developed linear regression forecast tools or new forecast applications where statistical analysis software to perform logistic regression is not available. The tool was delivered in two formats - a Microsoft Excel GUI and a Tool Command Language/Tool Kit (Tcl/Tk) GUI in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The Microsoft Excel GUI reads a MesoNAM text file containing hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours, from one model run (00 or 12 UTC). The GUI then displays e peak wind speed, average wind speed, and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the 25-, 35- and 50-kt thresholds. The user can display the Day-1 through Day-3 peak wind forecasts, and separate forecasts are made for precipitation and non-precipitation days. The MIDDS GUI uses data from the NAM and Global Forecast System (GFS), instead of the MesoNAM. It can display Day-1 and Day-2 forecasts using NAM data, and Day-1 through Day-5 forecasts using GFS data. The timing of the peak wind is not displayed, since the independent verification showed that none of the forecast methods performed significantly better than climatology. The forecaster should use the climatological timing of the peak wind (2248 UTC) as a first guess and then adjust it based on the movement of weather features.
Tropical cyclones do not form easily near the equator but can intensify rapidly, leaving little time for preparation. We investigate the number of near-equatorial (originating between 5°N and 11°N) tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean during post-monsoon season (October to December) over the past 60 years. The study reveals a marked 43% decline in the number of such cyclones in recent decades (1981–2010) compared to earlier (1951–1980). Here, we show this decline in tropical cyclone frequency is primarily due to the weakened low-level vorticity modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and increased vertical wind shear. In the presence of low-latitude basin-wide warming and a favorable phase of the PDO, both the intensity and frequency of such cyclones are expected to increase. Such dramatic and unique changes in tropical cyclonic activity due to the interplay between natural variability and climate change call for appropriate planning and mitigation strategies.
This article evaluates Entraining CAPE (ECAPE) as a thunderstorm proxy in climate studies using Global Precipitation Measurement satellite observations. ECAPE modifies traditional CAPE to account for the dependence of entrainment on the vertical wind shear, the lifted condensation level (LCL) height, and the properties of a cloud's surrounding atmosphere. ECAPE shows stronger pattern correlations with global regions of intense thunderstorms than previous metrics for updraft speed. In these regions, large CAPE, large shear, and high LCLs conspire to produce wide updrafts that are shielded from the negative effects of dry-air entrainment. ECAPE more skillfully discriminates intense thunderstorms from their less intense counterparts than other metrics commonly used in climatology and climate change studies of thunderstorms. We provide evidence that the well-known land-sea contrast in thunderstorm intensity is a consequence of larger CAPE and higher LCL heights over land than over the ocean.
The causes of vertical cloud overlap, the ratio between the cloud fraction by area and the cloud fraction by volume, are studied for fields of cumulus convection. Using large-eddy simulations, the structure of individual clouds within the cloud field is inspected and connected to the overall cloud cover of the entire cloud field. First, it is shown that the cloud overlap of the entire field can be well approximated by the total cloud overlap of the individual clouds. It is then shown that a simple maximum overlap assumption, which is commonly used for cloud fields with small layer depth, can only account for roughly half of the overlap inefficiency. This is due to the fact that maximum overlap only represents variations in cloud width as a function of depth but does not take other factors into account, most notably shear or turbulence. The effects of turbulence and wind shear on the overlap of individual clouds are first estimated as a function of cloud depth, which closes the discrepancy between observed cloud overlap and the maximum overlap assumption. Then, an empirical model is developed for the shear and turbulence contributions on overlap as a function of cloud depth and of synoptic conditions. Finally, it is shown that our model is capable of accurately predicting overlap for a large number of cloud fields and under a variety of meteorological conditions.
A flight program to measure atmospheric turbulence at high altitudes (long wavelengths) in a variety of meteorological conditions is described and some results obtained in high altitude wind shear are discussed. Results are also presented from wind tunnel test programs to measure fluctuating pressures associated with over-the-wing configurations. A flexible aircraft take off and landing analysis and an active control landing gear analysis, are developed and their capabilities are described. Efforts to validate these analyses with experimental data are also discussed as well as results obtained from parametric studies.
The ocean and the atmosphere are dynamically coupled by the transport of momentum which is driven by the wind shear at the sea surface. However, in situ wind measurements are relatively sparse over most of the world's ocean and are largely limited to the locations of shipping routes.
Computer simulations of a Boeing 727 class aircraft landing in turbulence were developed by programming the longitudinal aircraft equations of motion into a digital computer with various input values of vertical and horizontal wind speeds. Turbulent wind data was fed to the computer in one-second intervals. The computer computed in one-second intervals the aircraft speed, altitude, horizontal distance traveled, rate-of-descent, pitch attitude, glide path angle (from edge of runway) and elevator angle. All computer runs were made in the 'stick-fixed' mode. The RMS values of altitude and velocity perturbations (from equilibrium) were found to be large when horizontal wind gusts had sinusoidal components at or near the phugoid (long period) frequency. Maximum RMS altitude deviations occurred when the vertical wind had sinusoidal components which were 1/10 to 1/5 of the phugoid frequency. When real wind data (obtained from NCAR Queen Air) were used as input winds good correlations were found to exist between RMS velocity perturbations and both horizontal and vertical wind shears.
Abstract Beijing and its surrounding areas experienced a torrential rainstorm from July 21 to 22, 2012. Previous studies have shown that melting was the main rainwater source in this process. In this paper, melting conversion processes were set to zero (NPMLT test) to analyze the effect of microphysical processes on the structure and precipitation of the convective system. The results showed that without the melting processes, the wind shear at the 700 hPa level decreased, and the wind field in Beijing and its surrounding areas changed. The cold front system moved faster, and the rainfall amount only reached the low rain level, much lower than that during the actual rainstorm. The hydrometeors sources had apparently changed. Though the latent heat release was large and little latent heat absorption occurred in the NPMLT test, the net latent heat did not affect the development of the convective system, and the precipitation was low. Therefore, microphysical processes greatly influence precipitation and convective system.
The first part of the present theory is devoted to the derivation of a Fokker-Planck equation. The eddies smaller than the hydrodynamic scale of the diffusion cloud form a diffusivity, while the inhomogeneous, bigger eddies give rise to a nonuniform migratory drift. This introduces an eddy-induced shear which reflects on the large-scale diffusion. The eddy-induced shear does not require the presence of a permanent wind shear and is intrinsic to the diffusion. Secondly, a transport theory of diffusivity is developed by the method of repeated-cascade and is based upon a relaxation of a chain of memories with decreasing information. The full range of diffusion consists of inertia, composite, and shear subranges, for which variance and eddy diffusivities are predicted. The coefficients are evaluated. Comparison with experiments in the upper atmosphere and oceans is made.
A pulsed CO2 Doppler Lidar, developed for airborne measurements of atmospheric wind fields, is described. In-flight tests show that the device can be successfully utilized in the detection and measurement of mountain-wave turbulence and wind shear, and in the generation of time histories of wind-field variations in smooth flight. This Lidar is in the process of being configured for measurement of the atmospheric flow fields surrounding severe convective storms.
A two-dimensional, nonhydrostatic, elastic numerical model has been used to study the generation of gravity waves for a stably stratified shear flow over an obstacle. When a low-level wind shear is included in the simulation, we find that the predictions for noticeable upstream effects based on Froude number for a uniform flow are no longer accurate. Upstream effects are encountered in the form of upstream propagating columnar disturbances and internal bores away from the obstacle. The limited parameter space studies conducted in this study suggest that the ratio of the shear depth to the obstacle heigh (d/H), the obstacle aspect ratio (H/L), and the Froude number (U/NH) are instrumental in determining the strength and the existence of these upstream disturbances. Thus, the present theoretical and empirical understanding of the importance of the Froude number for determining the nature of upstream effects should be modified substantially to include additional nondimensional parameters when shear is present.
Abstract. Wind farm flow control is a strategy to increase the efficiency and therefore lower the levelized cost of energy of a wind farm. This is done using turbine settings such as the yaw angle, blade pitch angles, or generator torque to manipulate the flow behind the turbine, affecting downstream turbines in the farm. Two inherently different wind farm flow control methods have been identified in the literature: wake steering and wake mixing. This paper focuses on comparing the turbine quantities of interest between these methods for a simple two-turbine wind farm setup, while a companion article (Brown et al., 2025) focuses on the wake quantities of interest for a single wind turbine setup. Both papers use the same set of wind farm simulations based on high-fidelity large-eddy simulations (LESs) coupled with OpenFAST turbine models. First, precursor simulations are executed in order to match wind conditions measured with lidars in an offshore wind farm off the east coast of the USA. These measurements show general wind conditions that exhibit substantially higher vertical wind shear and veer than any of the LES studies performed with wind farm flow control strategies currently available in the literature. The precursors are used to evaluate the effectiveness of the control methods. In the LES, the wind veer leads to highly skewed wakes, which have considerable influence on the power uplift of wind farm flow control strategies. In addition to a baseline controller, four different control strategies, each of which uses either pitch or yaw control, are performed on the upstream turbine of a simple two-turbine wind farm. Assuming that the wind direction is known and constant over time, the simulations show that wake steering is generally the superior wind farm flow control strategy, considering both wind farm power production and turbine damage equivalent loads when substantial wind veer is present. This result is consistent over different wind speeds and wind directions. On the other hand, for similar wind conditions with lower veer, wake mixing was found to yield the highest power production, although at the expense of generally higher loads. This leads us to conclude that the effect of wind veer, which has so far not usually been considered, can not be neglected when determining the optimal wind farm flow control strategy.
The edge technique is a new and powerful method for measuring small frequency shifts such as the Doppler shift of an atmospheric backscattered signal from a pulsed laser. The edge technique can be used for high spatial resolution, high accuracy ground and airborne wind measurements as well as high accuracy spaceborne wind measurements. We have recently made our first ground based wind measurements. These have a spatial resolution of 15 m and an accuracy of 25 cm/s and these measurements are presented in this paper. This is a unique capability and provides valuable information for studies of turbulent processes in the lower atmosphere. It could also be used for high sensitivity detection of wind shear and microbursts in the vicinity of airports. In addition, global wind measurements can be made with the edge technique from space with an accuracy of 1 m/s and a vertical resolution as high as 150 m in the boundary layer and 1 km through the troposphere. Such a system could make eyesafe wind measurements using well developed diode pumped solid state laser technology at 1.06 micron. Multi-pulse averaging would provide a spatially representative wind measurement.