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At least 469 records · Page 26

A System-Level Cost Modeling Framework for Design for Remanufacturing: A Case Study of an Agricultural Machine Transmission

Remanufacturing offers significant environmental and economic benefits by restoring end-of-life products to as-new conditions. Although extensive research has been conducted on the topic, the adoption of remanufacturing practices remains limited across various industries. A primary barrier to broader implementation is the substantial upfront investment required, which necessitates reliable cost modeling to justify potential future savings. Most existing models treat components independently and ignore inter-component dependencies. We develop a probabilistic, system-level cost modeling framework that integrates reliability, reusability, and a dependency matrix to capture cascading effects across components over multiple life cycles. Our model identifies those critical components that maximize remanufacturing benefits across a product's many lives. A toy example and an industry case study (John Deere PowrQuad transmission subassembly) illustrate how design alternatives affect cumulative cost. Using a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) to perform life cycle cost analysis on the system with different design changes, we show the normalized average cost savings after three remanufacturing cycles. Accounting for dependencies meaningfully alters cost projections and ignoring them underestimates accumulated cost by up to 20% in our examples. Furthermore, the results of our study confirm that accounting for component interdependencies is necessary to produce cost estimates that meet industry standards.

Life Cycle Analysis and Design↗

Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease

Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among alternative model structures and assumptions. To assess the potential for uncertainties about emerging pathogens to affect forecasts of their spread, we evaluated the performance 16 forecasting models in the context of the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia. Each model featured a different combination of assumptions about human mobility, spatiotemporal variation in transmission potential, and the number of virus introductions. We found that which model assumptions had the most ensemble weight changed through time. We additionally identified a trade-off whereby some individual models outperformed ensemble models early in the epidemic, but on average the ensembles outperformed all individual models. Our results suggest that multiple models spanning uncertainty across alternative assumptions are necessary to obtain robust forecasts for emerging infectious diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Spin-orbit density wave induced hidden topological order in URu2Si2

The conventional order parameters in quantum matters are often characterized by ‘spontaneous’ broken symmetries. However, sometimes the broken symmetries may blend with the invariant symmetries to lead to mysterious emergent phases. The heavy fermion metal URu2Si2 is one such example, where the order parameter responsible for a second-order phase transition at Th517.5 K has remained a long-standing mystery. Here we propose via ab-initio calculation and effective model that a novel spin-orbit density wave in the f-states is responsible for the hidden-order phase in URu2Si2. The staggered spin-orbit order spontaneously breaks rotational, and translational symmetries while time-reversal symmetry remains intact. Thus it is immune to pressure, but can be destroyed by magnetic field even at T 5 0 K, that means at a quantum critical point. We compute topological index of the order parameter to show that the hidden order is topologically invariant. Finally, some verifiable predictions are presented.

MATERIALS PHYSICS↗

Surface tension of spherical drops from surface of tension

The determination of surface tension of curved interfaces is a topic that raised many controversies during the last century. Explicit liquid-vapor interface modelling (ELVI) was unable up to now to reproduce interfacial behaviors in drops due to ambiguities in the mechanical definition of the surface tension. In this work, we propose a thermodynamic approach based on the location of surface of tension and its use in the Laplace equation to extract the surface tension of spherical interfaces from ELVI modelling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Foundations of plasma standards

Abstract The field of low-temperature plasmas (LTPs) excels by virtue of its broad intellectual diversity, interdisciplinarity and range of applications. This great diversity also challenges researchers in communicating the outcomes of their investigations, as common practices and expectations for reporting vary widely in the many disciplines that either fall under the LTP umbrella or interact closely with LTP topics. These challenges encompass comparing measurements made in different laboratories, exchanging and sharing computer models, enabling reproducibility in experiments and computations using traceable and transparent methods and data, establishing metrics for reliability, and in translating fundamental findings to practice. In this paper, we address these challenges from the perspective of LTP standards for measurements, diagnostics, computations, reporting and plasma sources. This discussion on standards, or recommended best practices, and in some cases suggestions for standards or best practices, has the goal of improving communication, reproducibility and transparency within the LTP field and fields allied with LTPs. This discussion also acknowledges that standards and best practices, either recommended or at some point enforced, are ultimately a matter of judgment. These standards and recommended practices should not limit innovation nor prevent research breakthroughs from having real-time impact. Ultimately, the goal of our research community is to advance the entire LTP field and the many applications it touches through a shared set of expectations.

data and reaction mechanisms↗

Semiclassical approaches to nuclear dynamics

The extended Gutzwiller trajectory approach is presented for the semiclassical description of nuclear collective dynamics, in line with the main topics of the fruitful activity of V.G. Solovjov. Within the Fermi-liquid droplet model, the leptodermous effective surface approximation was applied to calculations of energies, sum rules, and transition densities for the neutron–proton asymmetry of the isovector giant-dipole resonance and found to be in good agreement with the experimental data. By using the Strutinsky shell correction method, the semiclassical collective transport coefficients, such as nuclear inertia, friction, stiffness, and moments of inertia, can be derived beyond the quantum perturbation approximation of the response function theory and the cranking model. The averaged particle-number dependences of the low-lying collective vibrational states are described in good agreement with the basic experimental data, mainly due to the enhancement of the collective inertia as compared to its irrotational flow value. Shell components of the moment of inertia are derived in terms of the periodic-orbit free-energy shell corrections. A good agreement between the semiclassical extended Thomas–Fermi moments of inertia with shell corrections and the quantum results is obtained for different nuclear deformations and particle numbers. Shell effects are shown to be exponentially dampted out with increasing temperature in all the transport coefficients.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Scientific discovery in a model-centric framework: Reproducibility, innovation, and epistemic diversity

Consistent confirmations obtained independently of each other lend credibility to a scientific result. We refer to results satisfying this consistency as reproducible and assume that reproducibility is a desirable property of scientific discovery. Yet seemingly science also progresses despite irreproducible results, indicating that the relationship between reproducibility and other desirable properties of scientific discovery is not well understood. These properties include early discovery of truth, persistence on truth once it is discovered, and time spent on truth in a long-term scientific inquiry. We build a mathematical model of scientific discovery that presents a viable framework to study its desirable properties including reproducibility. In this framework, we assume that scientists adopt a model-centric approach to discover the true model generating data in a stochastic process of scientific discovery. We analyze the properties of this process using Markov chain theory, Monte Carlo methods, and agent-based modeling. We show that the scientific process may not converge to truth even if scientific results are reproducible and that irreproducible results do not necessarily imply untrue results. The proportion of different research strategies represented in the scientific population, scientists’ choice of methodology, the complexity of truth, and the strength of signal contribute to this counter-intuitive finding. Important insights include that innovative research speeds up the discovery of scientific truth by facilitating the exploration of model space and epistemic diversity optimizes across desirable properties of scientific discovery.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Simulating Interface Growth and Defect Generation in CZT – Simulation State of the Art and Known Gaps

This one-year, study topic project will survey and investigate the known state-of-the-art of modeling and simulation methods suitable for performing fine-scale, fully 3-D modeling, of the growth of CZT crystals at the melt-solid interface, and correlating physical growth and post-growth conditions with generation and incorporation of defects into the solid CZT crystal. In the course of this study, this project will also identify the critical gaps in our knowledge of modeling and simulation techniques in terms of what would be needed to be developed in order to perform accurate physical simulations of defect generation in melt-grown CZT. The transformational nature of this study will be, for the first time, an investigation of modeling and simulation methods for describing microstructural evolution during crystal growth and the identification of the critical gaps in our knowledge of such methods, which is recognized as having tremendous scientific impacts for future model developments in a wide variety of materials science areas.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Project on Nuclear Gaming: Investigating the Impact of Nuclear Weapons Capabilities on Deterrence: May 2-3, 2018 Workshop Summary

In the future, it may be possible for states to construct nuclear weapons with alternative effects that are optimized for specific military purposes. These nuclear weapon concepts might employ features such as enhanced radiation outputs (ER), electromagnetic pulse (EMP), or other approaches such as high-precision, low-yield systems (HPLY) that reduce collateral damage, but improve lethality to targets. Some have speculated that such weapons could have the effect of lowering the threshold of use for nuclear weapons by reducing the negative incentives to their use or by providing new military applications for nuclear weapons. A nuclear arsenal that includes weapons with alternate effect regimes may also have an impact on the calculus of escalation in a conflict scenario. This project of the University of California, Berkeley (UCB), Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) investigates the potential impacts of alternate nuclear weapons effects regimes on deterrence and strategic stability using experimental gaming methods. The purpose of this document is to capture the research questions, assumptions, scenario characteristics, and other details that provide the framework used to address this challenge presented during the first workshop discussion hosted by the Center for Global Security Research at LLNL with subject matter experts from government, academia, and the private sector. The report also summarizes feedback from participants. Topics discussed during the workshop included alternative effects of nuclear weapons, existing approaches for modeling and measuring conflict, and the state of the art in experimental game design.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Learning Operators for Structure-Informed Surrogate Models

This report summarizes the work performed under the author's two-year John von Neumann LDRD project, which involves the non-intrusive surrogate modeling of dynamical systems with remarkable structural properties. After a brief introduction to the topic, technical accomplishments and project metrics are reviewed including peer-reviewed publications, software releases, external presentations and colloquia, as well as organized conference sessions and minisymposia. The report concludes with a summary of ongoing projects and collaborations which utilize the results of this work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Development and Assessment of CTFFuel

This milestone report documents an approach that seeks to develop a standalone fuel solver to simulate steady-state and transient thermo-mechanical responses of light-water reactor fuel rods and assess its temperature predictions against analytical solutions, and a well-known and validated fuel performance code. This manuscript focuses on five major topics: (1) development of the CTFFuel, (2) discussion of the newly implemented fuel deformation models in dynamic gap conductance model of CTFFuel, (3) enabling the dynamic gap conductance model in VERA-CS, (4) verification of the solid conduction solution and comparison of the CTFFuel with respect to the workhorse code, CTF, and (5) benchmark of the thermal conductivity degradation using the burnup dependent fuel thermal conductivity models and benchmark of the fuel centerline temperature using the dynamic gap conductance model with Halden measurements and FRAPCON-4.0 simulation results. CTFFuel temperature predictions are compared to predictions from FRAPCON-4.0 for UO 2 , UO 2 +Gd 2 O 3 and MOX fuels through reactor’s life. The main motivation is to understand discrepancies between CTFFuel and FRAPCON-4.0’s temperature predictions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Female “Paradox” in Atrial Fibrillation—Role of Left Truncation Due to Competing Risks

Female sex in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is a controversial and paradoxical risk factor for stroke—controversial because it increases the risk of stroke only among older women of some ethnicities and paradoxical because it appears to contradict male predominance in cardiovascular diseases. However, the underlying mechanism remains unclear. We conducted simulations to examine the hypothesis that this sex difference is generated non-causally through left truncation due to competing risks (CR) such as coronary artery diseases, which occur more frequently among men than among women and share common unobserved causes with stroke. We modeled the hazards of stroke and CR with correlated heterogeneous risk. We assumed that some people died of CR before AF diagnosis and calculated the hazard ratio of female sex in the left-truncated AF population. In this situation, female sex became a risk factor for stroke in the absence of causal roles. The hazard ratio was attenuated in young populations without left truncation and in populations with low CR and high stroke incidence, which is consistent with real-world observations. This study demonstrated that spurious risk factors can be identified through left truncation due to correlated CR. Female sex in patients with AF may be a paradoxical risk factor for stroke.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Physics-driven Explosions of Stripped High-mass Stars: Synthetic Light Curves and Spectra of Stripped-envelope Supernovae with Broad Light Curves

Stripped-envelope supernovae (SESNe) represent a significant fraction of core-collapse supernovae, arising from massive stars that have shed their hydrogen and, in some cases, helium envelopes. The origins and explosion mechanisms of SESNe remain a topic of active investigation. In this work, we employ radiative-transfer simulations to model the light curves and spectra of a set of explosions of single, solar-metallicity, massive Wolf–Rayet stars with ejecta masses ranging from 4 to 11 M ⊙ , which were computed from a turbulence-aided and neutrino-driven explosion mechanism. We analyze these synthetic observables to explore the impact of varying ejecta mass and helium content on observable features. We find that the light curve shape of these progenitors with high ejecta masses is consistent with observed SESNe with broad light curves but not the peak luminosities. The commonly used analytic formula based on rising bolometric light curves overestimates the ejecta mass of these high-initial-mass progenitor explosions by a factor of up to 2.6. In contrast, the calibrated method by Haynie et al., which relies on late-time decay tails, reduces uncertainties to an average of 20% within the calibrated ejecta mass range. Spectroscopically, the He I 1.083 μm line remains prominent even in models with as little as 0.02 M ⊙ of helium. However, the strength of the optical He I lines is not directly proportional to the helium mass but instead depends on a complex interplay of factors such as the 56 Ni distribution, composition, and radiation field. Thus, producing realistic helium features requires detailed radiative transfer simulations for each new hydrodynamic model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Addressing Human and Organizational Factors In Nuclear Industry Modernization: A Sociotechnically-Based Strategic Framework

The modernization of nuclear power plants will require an advanced concept of operations, involving an integrated set of tightly coupled systems in which all stakeholders act in a coordinated manner. For this modernization effort to be enabled, we developed a human and organizational factors approach, based on a broad sociotechnical framework. Starting from core human factors principles, we conducted a literature review of the methods and approaches relevant to the modernization problem. These included core disciplines such as cognitive systems engineering, systems theoretic accident modeling and processes (STAMP), human systems integration, resilience engineering, and macroergonomics but also related topics of safety culture and organizational change. From this literature, we developed a conceptual framework centered around the work system with its four interacting components: people, technology, process, and governance. In an effective work system, these four components are jointly optimized according to three systems criteria: efficiency, effectiveness, and safety. System failure may result from excessive emphasis on any one criterion. The actual work of attaining joint optimization in a given work system can be accomplished by utilizing three high level functions: knowledge elicitation, knowledge representation, and cross-functional integration. We illustrated the utility of this approach by applying it to practical problems and case studies. The complete report is available in [1]; this paper is a description of our approach and report contents.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Device Scale Modeling of Solvent Absorption using MFIX-TFM

Recent climate change is largely attributed to greenhouse gases (e.g., carbon dioxide, methane) and fossil fuels account for a large majority of global CO 2 emissions. That said, fossil fuels will continue to play a significant role in the generation of power for the foreseeable future. The extent to which CO 2 is emitted needs to be reduced, however, carbon capture and sequestration are also necessary actions to tackle climate change. Different approaches exist for CO 2 capture including both post-combustion and pre-combustion technologies, oxy-fuel combustion and/or chemical looping combustion. The focus of this effort is on post-combustion solvent-absorption technology. To apply CO 2 technologies at commercial scale, the availability and maturity and the potential for scalability of that technology need to be considered. Solvent absorption is a proven technology but not at the scale needed by typical power plant. The scale up and down and design of laboratory and commercial packed bed reactors depends heavily on the specific knowledge of two-phase pressure drop, liquid holdup, the wetting efficiency and mass transfer efficiency as a function of operating conditions. Simple scaling rules often fail to provide proper design. Conventional reactor design modeling approaches will generally characterize complex non-ideal flow and mixing patterns using simplified and/or mechanistic flow assumptions. While there are varying levels of complexity used within these approaches, none of these models resolve the local velocity fields. Consequently, they are unable to account for important design factors such as flow maldistribution and channeling from a fundamental perspective. Ideally design would be aided by development of predictive models based on truer representation of the physical and chemical processes that occur at different scales. Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) models are based on multidimensional flow equations with first principle foundations. CFD models can include a more accurate physical description of flow processes and be modified to include more complex behavior. Wetting performance and spatial liquid distribution inside the absorber are recognized as weak areas of knowledge requiring further investigation. CFD tools offer a possible method to investigating such topics and gaining a better understanding of their influence on reactor performance. This report focuses first on describing a hydrodynamic model for countercurrent gas-liquid flow through a packed column and then on the chemistry, heat and mass transfer specific to CO 2 absorption using monoethanolamine (MEA). The indicated model is implemented in MFIX, a CFD open source software package. The user defined functions needed to build this model are described in detail along with the keywords for the corresponding input file. A test case is outlined along with a few results. The example serves to briefly illustrate the developed CFD tool and its potential capability to investigate solvent absorption.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Neutrino mass models and CP violation

Theoretical ideas on the origin of (a) neutrino masses (b) neutrino mass hierarchies and (c) leptonic mixing angles are reviewed. Topics discussed include (1) symmetries of neutrino mass matrix and their origin (2) ways to understand the observed patterns of leptonic mixing angles and (3)unified description of neutrino masses and mixing angles in grand unified theories.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The Pseudomonas aeruginosa quorum sensing signal molecule N-(3-oxododecanoyl) homoserine lactone enhances keratinocyte migration and induces Mmp13 gene expression in vitro

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An evidence of the positive effect of AHL on epithelialization process is provided. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer AHL enhances keratinocyte's ability to migrate in an in vitro scratch wound model. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer AHL induces the expression of Mmp13. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Topical application of AHL represents a possible strategy to treat chronic wounds. -- Abstract: Re-epithelialization is an essential step of wound healing involving three overlapping keratinocyte functions: migration, proliferation and differentiation. While quorum sensing (QS) is a cell density-dependent signaling system that enables bacteria to regulate the expression of certain genes, the QS molecule N-(3-oxododecanoyl) homoserine lactone (AHL) exerts effects also on mammalian cells in a process called inter-kingdom signaling. Recent studies have shown that AHL improves epithelialization in in vivo wound healing models but detailed understanding of the molecular and cellular mechanisms are needed. The present study focused on the AHL as a candidate reagent to improve wound healing through direct modulation of keratinocyte's activity in the re-epithelialization process. Results indicated that AHL enhances the keratinocyte's ability to migrate in an in vitro scratch wound healing model probably due to the high Mmp13 gene expression analysis after AHL treatment that was revealed by real-time RT-PCR. Inhibition of activator protein 1 (AP-1) signaling pathway completely prevented the migration of keratinocytes, and also resulted in a diminished Mmp13 gene expression, suggesting that AP-1 might be essential in the AHL-induced migration. Taken together, these results imply that AHL is a promising candidate molecule to improve re-epithelialization through the induction of migration of keratinocytes. Further investigation is needed to clarify the mechanism of action and molecular pathway of AHL on the keratinocyte migration process.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

White Paper on New Opportunities at the Next-Generation Neutrino Experiments (Part 1: BSM Neutrino Physics and Dark Matter)

With the advent of a new generation of neutrino experiments which leverage high-intensity neutrino beams for precision measurements, it is timely to explore physics topics beyond the standard neutrino-related physics. Given that the realm of beyond the standard model (BSM) physics has been mostly sought at high-energy regimes at colliders, such as the LHC at CERN, the exploration of BSM physics in neutrino experiments will enable complementary measurements at the energy regimes that balance that of the LHC. This is in concert with new ideas for high-intensity beams for fixed target and beam-dump experiments world-wide, e.g., those at CERN. The combination of the high intensity proton beam facilities and massive detectors for precision neutrino oscillation parameter measurements and for CP violation phase measurements will help make BSM physics reachable even in low energy regimes in accelerator based experiments. Large mass detectors with highly precise tracking and energy measurements, excellent timing resolution, and low energy thresholds will enable searches for BSM phenomena from cosmogenic origin, as well. Therefore, it is conceivable that BSM topics in the next generation neutrino experiments could be the dominant physics topics in the foreseeable future, as the precision of the neutrino oscillation parameter and CPV measurements continues to improve. In this spirit, this white paper provides a review of the current landscape of BSM theory in neutrino experiments in two selected areas of the BSM topics - dark matter and neutrino related BSM - and summarizes the current results from existing neutrino experiments to set benchmarks for both theory and experiment. This paper then provides a review of upcoming neutrino experiments throughout the next 10 - 15 year time scale and their capabilities to set the foundation for potential reach in BSM physics in the two aforementioned themes.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗