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At least 469 records · Page 26

The future of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation: using large ensembles to illuminate time-varying responses and inter-model differences

Future changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are uncertain, both because future projections differ between climate models and because the large internal variability of ENSO clouds the diagnosis of forced changes in observations and individual climate model simulations. By leveraging 14 single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), we robustly isolate the time-evolving response of ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability to anthropogenic forcing from internal variability in each SMILE. We find nonlinear changes in time in many models and considerable inter-model differences in projected changes in ENSO and the mean-state tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient. We demonstrate a linear relationship between the change in ENSO SST variability and the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient, although forced changes in the tropical Pacific SST gradient often occur later in the 21st century than changes in ENSO SST variability, which can lead to departures from the linear relationship. Single-forcing SMILEs show a potential contribution of anthropogenic forcing (aerosols and greenhouse gases) to historical changes in ENSO SST variability, while the observed historical strengthening of the tropical Pacific SST gradient sits on the edge of the model spread for those models for which single-forcing SMILEs are available. Our results highlight the value of SMILEs for investigating time-dependent forced responses and inter-model differences in ENSO projections. The nonlinear changes in ENSO SST variability found in many models demonstrate the importance of characterizing this time-dependent behavior, as it implies that ENSO impacts may vary dramatically throughout the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

From Femtoseconds to Gigaseconds: The SolDeg Platform for the Performance Degradation Analysis of Silicon Heterojunction Solar Cells

Heterojunction Si solar cells exhibit notable performance degradation. Here, we modeled this degradation by electronic defects getting generated by thermal activation across energy barriers over time. To analyze the physics of this degradation, we developed the SolDeg platform to simulate the dynamics of electronic defect generation. First, femtosecond molecular dynamics simulations were performed to create a-Si/c-Si stacks, using the machine learning-based Gaussian approximation potential. Second, we created shocked clusters by a cluster blaster method. Third, the shocked clusters were analyzed to identify which of them supported electronic defects. Fourth, the distribution of energy barriers that control the generation of these electronic defects was determined. Fifth, an accelerated Monte Carlo method was developed to simulate the thermally activated time-dependent defect generation across the barriers. Our main conclusions are as follows. (1) The degradation of a-Si/c-Si heterojunction solar cells via defect generation is controlled by a broad distribution of energy barriers. (2) We developed the SolDeg platform to track the microscopic dynamics of defect generation across this wide barrier distribution and determined the time-dependent defect density N(t) from femtoseconds to gigaseconds, over 24 orders of magnitude in time. (3) We have shown that a stretched exponential analytical form can successfully describe the defect generation N(t) over at least 10 orders of magnitude in time. (4) We found that in relative terms, Voc degrades at a rate of 0.2%/year over the first year, slowing with advancing time. (5) We developed the time correspondence curve to calibrate and validate the accelerated testing of solar cells. We found a compellingly simple scaling relationship between accelerated and normal times t normal ∝ t accel T(accel)/T(normal) . (6) We also carried out experimental studies of defect generation in a-Si:H/c-Si stacks. We found a relatively high degradation rate at early times that slowed considerably at longer time scales.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Nonequilibrium spectral moment sum rules of the Holstein–Hubbard model

Abstract We derive a general procedure for evaluating the n th derivative of a time-dependent operator in the Heisenberg representation and employ this approach to calculate the zeroth to third spectral moment sum rules of the retarded electronic Green’s function and self-energy for a system described by the Holstein–Hubbard model allowing for arbitrary spatial and time variation of all parameters (including spatially homogeneous electric fields and parameter quenches). For a translationally invariant (but time-dependent) Hamiltonian, we also provide sum rules in momentum space. The sum rules can be applied to various different phenomena like time-resolved angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy and benchmarking the accuracy of numerical many-body calculations. This work also corrects some errors found in earlier work on simpler models.

Physics↗

In Situ X-ray Scattering Reveals Coarsening Rates of Superlattices Self-Assembled from Electrostatically Stabilized Metal Nanocrystals Depend Nonmonotonically on Driving Force

Self-assembly of colloidal nanocrystals (NCs) into superlattices (SLs) is an appealing strategy to design hierarchically organized materials with promising functionalities. Mechanistic studies are still needed to uncover the design principles for SL self-assembly, but such studies have been difficult to perform due to the fast time and short length scales of NC systems. To address this challenge, we developed an apparatus to directly measure the evolving phases in situ and in real time of an electrostatically stabilized Au NC solution before, during, and after it is quenched to form SLs using small-angle X-ray scattering. By developing a quantitative model, we fit the time-dependent scattering patterns to obtain the phase diagram of the system and the kinetics of the colloidal and SL phases as a function of varying quench conditions. The extracted phase diagram is consistent with particles whose interactions are short in range relative to their diameter. We find the degree of SL order is primarily determined by fast (subsecond) initial nucleation and growth kinetics, while coarsening at later times depends nonmonotonically on the driving force for self-assembly. We validate these results by direct comparison with simulations and use them to suggest dynamic design principles to optimize the crystallinity within a finite time window. The combination of this measurement methodology, quantitative analysis, and simulation should be generalizable to elucidate and better control the microscopic self-assembly pathways of a wide range of bottom-up assembled systems and architectures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Data-Driven Modeling and Correction of Vehicle Dynamics

We develop a data-driven framework for learning and correcting nonautonomous vehicle dynamics. Physics-based vehicle models are often simplified for tractability and therefore exhibit inherent model-form uncertainty, motivating the need for data-driven correction. Moreover, nonautonomous dynamics are governed by time-dependent control inputs, which pose challenges in learning predictive models directly from temporal snapshot data. To address these, we reformulate the vehicle dynamics via a local parameterization of the time-dependent inputs, yielding a modified system composed ofa sequence of local parametric dynamical systems. Here, we approximate these parametric systems using two complementary approaches. First, we employ the dimension reduction and interpolation in parameter space (DRIPS) methodology to construct efficient linear surrogate models, equipped with lifted observable spaces and manifold-based operator interpolation. This enables data-efficient learning of vehicle models whose dynamics admit accurate linear representations in the lifted spaces. Second, for more strongly nonlinear systems, we employ flow map learning (FML), a deep neural network (DNN) approach that approximates the parametric evolution map without requiring special treatment of nonlinearities. We further extend FML with a transfer-learning-based model correction procedure, enabling the correction of misspecified prior models using only a sparse set of high-fidelity or experimental measurements, without assuming a prescribed form for the correction term. Through a suite of numerical experiments on unicycle, simplified bicycle, and slip-based bicycle models, we demonstrate that DRIPS offers robust and highly data-efficient learning of nonautonomous vehicle dynamics, while FML provides expressive nonlinear modeling and effective correction of model-form errors under severe data scarcity.

data-driven modeling↗

Continuous conditional generative adversarial networks for data-driven solutions of poroelasticity with heterogeneous material properties

Machine learning-based data-driven modeling can allow computationally efficient time-dependent solutions of PDEs, such as those that describe subsurface multiphysical problems. In this work, our previous approach (Kadeethum et al., 2021d) of conditional generative adversarial networks (cGAN) developed for the solution of steady-state problems involving highly heterogeneous material properties is extended to time-dependent problems by adopting the concept of continuous cGAN (CcGAN). The CcGAN that can condition continuous variables is developed to incorporate the time domain through either element-wise addition or conditional batch normalization. Moreover, this framework can handle training data that contain different timestamps and then predict timestamps that do not exist in the training data. As a numerical example, the transient response of the coupled poroelastic process is studied in two different permeability fields: Zinn & Harvey transformation and a bimodal transformation. The proposed CcGAN uses heterogeneous permeability fields as input parameters while pressure and displacement fields over time are model output. Our results show that the model provides sufficient accuracy with computational speed-up. This robust framework will enable us to perform real-time reservoir management and robust uncertainty quantification in poroelastic problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Pipeline Hydrogen Decarbonization and Repurposing Analyzers (P-HyDRAs)

The Pipeline Hydrogen Decarbonization and Repurposing Analyzers (P-HyDRAs) are a set of prototype computational tools for simulating and optimizing midstream natural gas pipeline system operations subject to location and time-dependent hydrogen blending. The models can accurately resolve dynamic gas flows through large-scale pipeline networks using non-ideal gas equations of state. The codes can be used as decision support for planning and design decisions involving intra-day energy flow schedules as well as spatiotemporal economic values of natural gas, hydrogen, and net energy delivered to consumers while ensuring that pipeline hydraulic limitations, gas compressor station constraints, operational factors, and pre-existing shipping contracts are satisfied. The inputs to the codes are a model of the pipeline system as well as time-series data that specify boundary conditions on the network. For optimization, the code module requires price and quantity offers for natural gas and hydrogen and price and quantity bids for energy, which are used as time-dependent constraints in an optimal control problem. The outputs are time-series data that provide a predictive simulation of gas flows, mass fractions, and pressures, or with additional degrees of freedom give an approximately optimal solution for gas injections/withdrawals, compressor settings, and sensitivities to the objective function that provide locational values of energy.

Zlotnik, Anatoly↗

Serpent transient analyses of GIACINT geometrical change experiments

This paper simulates seven transient experiments with geometrical movements performed at the GIACINT facility of Belarus. These experiments include three slow control rods insertion in more than 25 s, one fast control rod insertion in less than 1 s, and three water moderator draining transients. In the fast control rod insertion experiment, the control rods are first pushed by a mechanical spring and then let fall by gravity in the assembly. In this experiment, the control rods speed varies because of the initial spring force, the gravitational acceleration, and the water buoyancy force. In all other transient experiments, the geometry change occurs with a constant speed. The Serpent computer program was utilized to simulate these transient experiments with geometrical changes by performing two separate computations. One time-independent computation is performed in criticality mode and the other time-dependent computation is performed in dynamic-source mode. The first computation writes the neutron population and delayed neutron precursors for starting the transient simulation. The second computation divides the transient time into several time bins, reads the two files from the first computation, and updates them at the end of each time bin. The Serpent simulation results obtained for this set of experiments are in good agreement with the time dependent experimental measurements. In addition, Serpent and MCNP simulations results show an excellent agreement for the water moderator transient

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Out-of-equilibrium Majorana zero modes in interacting Kitaev chains

Here, we employ a time-dependent real-space local density-of-states method to study the movement and fusion of Majorana zero modes in the one-dimensional interacting Kitaev model, based on the time evolution of many-body states. We analyze the dynamics and both fusion channels of Majoranas using time-dependent potentials, either creating walls or wells. For fast moving Majoranas, we unveil nonequilibrium signatures of the “strong-zero-mode” operator (quasiparity degeneracy in the full spectrum) and its breakdown in the presence of repulsive Coulomb interactions. Focusing on forming a full electron after fusion, we also discuss the upper and lower limits on the Majorana speed needed to reduce nonadiabatic effects and to avoid poisoning due to decoherence.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Simulations of Stochastic Fluid Dynamics near a Critical Point in the Phase Diagram

Here, we present simulations of stochastic fluid dynamics in the vicinity of a critical endpoint belonging to the universality class of the Ising model. This study is motivated by the challenge of modeling the dynamics of critical fluctuations near a conjectured critical endpoint in the phase diagram of quantum chromodynamics (QCD). We focus on the interaction of shear modes with a conserved scalar density, which is known as model H. We show that the observed dynamical scaling behavior depends on the correlation length and the shear viscosity of the fluid. As the correlation length is increased or the viscosity is decreased we observe a crossover from the dynamical exponent of critical diffusion, z≃4, to the expected scaling exponent of model H, z≃3. We use our method to investigate the time-dependent correlation function of non-Gaussian moments M n (t) of the order parameter. We find that the relaxation time depends in a nontrivial manner on the power n.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Multiphysics Multiscale Simulation Platform for Damage, Environmental Degradation, and Life Prediction of CMCs in Extreme Environments

This project successfully developed a multiphysics, multiscale computational framework to enhance the design and development of CMCs, with a focus on modeling highly nonlinear, time-dependent damage mechanisms and material degradation under extreme conditions, such as those experienced in turbine service environments. The project made significant advances in improving our understanding of progressive damage, oxidative degradation, and time-dependent inelastic deformation in CMCs, with particular attention to the role of uncertainties in predictions. Key outcomes include the integration of advanced material characterization, uncertainty quantification, and multiphysics constitutive models to predict the behavior of CMCs over their service life. A novel multiscale methodology was employed, which integrated microscale constituent behaviors with structural-scale responses, enabling the manufacturing defects in the microstructure that are prone to damage nucleation. Through the development of DL algorithms, the project advanced the prediction of damage initiation and crack propagation, taking into account the defect morphology and statistical variations across multiple scales. The framework was rigorously validated using thermomechanical experiments, which tested CMCs under various mechanical loadings at elevated temperatures, further enhancing the model's predictive capability. Overall, the research outcomes have provided a more accurate, reliable method for predicting CMC component life, significantly advancing material design, and improving component reliability in extreme environments. This work has strong implications for the optimization of turbine components and other high-performance applications where CMCs are used.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Variational deep learning of equilibrium transition path ensembles

Here, we present a time-dependent variational method to learn the mechanisms of equilibrium reactive processes and efficiently evaluate their rates within a transition path ensemble. This approach builds off of the variational path sampling methodology by approximating the time-dependent commitment probability within a neural network ansatz. The reaction mechanisms inferred through this approach are elucidated by a novel decomposition of the rate in terms of the components of a stochastic path action conditioned on a transition. This decomposition affords an ability to resolve the typical contribution of each reactive mode and their couplings to the rare event. The associated rate evaluation is variational and systematically improvable through the development of a cumulant expansion. We demonstrate this method in both over- and under-damped stochastic equations of motion, in low-dimensional model systems, and in the isomerization of a solvated alanine dipeptide. In all examples, we find that we can obtain quantitatively accurate estimates of the rates of the reactive events with minimal trajectory statistics and gain unique insights into transitions through the analysis of their commitment probability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Wake-Resolving Acoustic Tomography: Advances through Numerical Covariance Methods

Acoustic tomography offers path-integrated measurements of atmospheric velocity and temperature fluctuations with high spatial resolution. Classical implementations of time-dependent stochastic inversion rely on homogeneous, isotropic covariance models that are poorly suited to the anisotropic structure of wind turbine wakes. By directly estimating heterogeneous covariances from large-eddy simulations (LESs) into the time-dependent stochastic inversion operator, we relax implicit assumptions in the analytical models used historically. Retrievals using these LES-informed models improve agreement with true fields in variance, turbulent kinetic energy, and spectral content compared to analytical and precursor-based covariance models. The results indicate that LES-informed covariance models can enhance the accuracy of acoustic tomography retrievals in complex, anisotropic flows such as wind turbine wakes in some cases and highlight instances where analytical models still offer competitive performance, despite their simplifying assumptions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Low-cost, constrained-motion dynamometer for milling force measurement

This paper describes the design and testing of a low-cost dynamometer for milling force measurement. The monolithic design is based on constrained-motion/flexure-based kinematics, where force is inferred from displacement measured using a low-cost optical interrupter (i.e., a knife edge that partially interrupts the beam in an emitter-detector pair). The time-dependent displacement of the dynamometer’s moving platform caused by the milling force is converted to the frequency domain, multiplied by the inverse of the single degree of freedom frequency response, and converted back to the time domain to obtain the time dependent cutting force. Lastly, comparisons with commercially available, piezoelectric-based force measurement are provided.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Muon-induced fission of actinide nuclei

A negative muon captured by an actinide cascades down through the muonic atomic levels; deeply bound transitions can proceed via inverse internal conversion, depositing the muonic transition energy directly into the nucleus and, when the deposited energy exceeds the fission barrier, inducing prompt fission. Because the muon mean lifetime exceeds the saddle-to-scission timescale by orders of magnitude, the muon can survive the entire fission event as a 1⁢𝑠 spectator and ultimately attach to one or both of the emerging fragments. Its postscission attachment probability to the light fragment, 𝑃 𝐿 , can be used as a direct electromagnetic probe of fission dynamics on a timescale of 10 −21 s. In previous work, we introduced a three-dimensional lattice solution of the time-dependent Dirac equation coupled to the electromagnetic field generated by a fissioning nucleus and reported 𝑃 𝐿 for several actinides at a single dissipation strength. In this work, we extend that framework to a systematic survey of 232 Th , 238 U , and 240 Pu and implement a more realistic fission model which incorporates dynamic pairing correlations. We find that 𝑃 𝐿 falls steeply with the fragment charge asymmetry, a robust structural fingerprint of the fissioning system, while its dependence on nuclear dissipation is secondary and sensitive to the phenomenological friction prescription. These results establish 𝑃 𝐿 as a clean electromagnetic probe of fragment charge asymmetry and motivate a self-consistent, coordinate- and time-dependent treatment of nuclear dissipation as the natural next step.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Dynamics of the collapse of a ferromagnetic skyrmion in a centrosymmetric lattice

We report time dependence of the size and chirality of a ferromagnetic skyrmion in a Heisenberg model with the magnetic field on a square lattice has been studied analytically and numerically. The lattice and the magnetic field generate strong time dependence of the skyrmion chirality. Due to nonlinearity, the lattice alone also generates strong intrinsic damping that leads to the skyrmion collapse via the emission of spin waves. In the absence of the magnetic field, the collapse is slow for a large skyrmion, but it becomes exponentially fast in the presence of the Landau-Lifshitz damping when the field is turned on. Magnons emitted by a collapsing skyrmion must have a discrete spectrum due to the quantization of the skyrmion magnetic moment.

2-dimensional systems↗

Nontrivial fusion of Majorana zero modes in interacting quantum-dot arrays

Motivated by recent experimental reports of Majorana zero modes (MZMs) in quantum-dot systems at the “sweet spot,” where the electronic hopping t ℎ is equal to the superconducting coupling Δ, we study the time-dependent spectroscopy corresponding to the nontrivial fusion of MZMs. The term “nontrivial” refers to the fusion of Majoranas from different original pairs of MZMs, each with well-defined parities. We employ an experimentally accessible time-dependent real-space local density-of-states (LDOS) method to investigate the nontrivial MZM fusion outcomes in canonical chains and in a Y-shaped array of interacting electrons. In the case of quantum-dot chains where two pairs of MZMs are initially disconnected, after fusion we find equal-height peaks in the electron and hole components of the LDOS, signaling nontrivial fusion into both the vacuum I and fermion Ψ channels with equal weight. For π-junction quantum-dot chains, where the superconducting phase has opposite signs on the left and right portions of the chain, after the nontrivial fusion we observed the formation of an exotic two-site MZM near the center of the chain, coexisting with another single-site MZM. Furthermore, we also studied the fusion of three MZMs in the Y-shaped geometry. In this case, after the fusion we observed the novel formation of another exotic multisite MZM, with properties depending on the connection and geometry of the central region of the Y-shaped quantum-dot array.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗