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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 469 records · Page 26
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

An Open‐Source, Physics‐Based, Tropical Cyclone Downscaling Model With Intensity‐Dependent Steering

Abstract An open‐source, physics‐based tropical cyclone (TC) downscaling model is developed, in order to generate a large climatology of TCs. The model is composed of three primary components: (a) a random seeding process that determines genesis, (b) an intensity‐dependent beta‐advection model that determines the track, and (c) a non‐linear differential equation set that determines the intensification rate. The model is entirely forced by the large‐scale environment. Downscaling ERA5 reanalysis data shows that the model is generally able to reproduce observed TC climatology, such as the global seasonal cycle, genesis locations, track density, and lifetime maximum intensity distributions. Inter‐annual variability in TC count and power‐dissipation is also well captured, on both basin‐wide and global scales. Regional TC hazard estimated by this model is also analyzed using return period maps and curves. In particular, the model is able to reasonably capture the observed return period curves of landfall intensity in various sub‐basins around the globe. The incorporation of an intensity‐dependent steering flow is shown to lead to regionally dependent changes in power dissipation and return periods. Advantages and disadvantages of this model, compared to other downscaling models, are also discussed.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observed Increase in Tropical Cyclone‐Induced Sea Surface Cooling Near the U.S. Southeast Coast

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) induce substantial upper‐ocean mixing and upwelling, leading to sea surface cooling. In this study, we explore changes in TC‐induced cold wakes along the United States (U.S.) Southeast and Gulf Coasts during 1982–2020. Our study shows a significant increase in TC‐induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling of about 0.20°C near the U.S. Southeast Coast over this period. However, for the U.S. Gulf Coast, trends in TC‐induced SST cooling are insignificant. Analysis of the large‐scale oceanic environments indicate that the increasing TC‐induced cold wakes near the Southeast coast have been predominantly caused by the cooling of subsurface waters in that region. This upper‐ocean change is attributed to the enhancement of surface pressure gradient across land‐sea boundary and the associated increase in alongshore winds over there. Further analysis with climate models reveals the important role of anthropogenic forcings in driving these changes in the atmospheric circulation response along the U.S. Southeast Coast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Summertime Carbonaceous Aerosol in Interior Versus Coastal Northern Alaska

Abstract Rapid warming is likely increasing primary production and wildfire occurrence in the Arctic. Projected changes in carbonaceous aerosols during the summer will impact atmospheric chemistry and climate, but our understanding of these processes is limited by sparse observations. Here, we characterize carbonaceous aerosol in Alaska, USA: Toolik Field Station in the Interior and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement facility at Utqiaġvik on the Arctic coast, during the summers of 2022 and 2023. We estimated PM 2.5 and PM 10 concentrations using laser light scattering (PurpleAir sensors) and examined total carbon (TC) and its organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) fractions in total suspended particles (TSP). We investigated the dominant sources of carbonaceous aerosol using air mass backward‐trajectories from the NOAA HYSPLIT model and radiocarbon source apportionment of TC. TC concentrations were about twice as high in the Interior compared to the coast, with contemporary sources dominating at both Toolik (95%–99%) and Utqiaġvik (86%–89%) over minor contributions from fossil sources. Elevated PM, TC, OC, and EC concentrations coincided with major boreal forest fire activity in North America that brought smoke to the region. The radiocarbon signature of EC measured at Toolik during these wildfire events indicated that over 90% of the EC came from contemporary sources. Our measurements demonstrate the potential for Arctic aerosol concentrations to respond significantly to climate warming‐induced changes to the landscape and emphasize the need for continuous atmospheric monitoring to advance our understanding of this rapidly changing environment.

Welch, Allison M. [Department of Earth System Scie↗
DOE OSTI2022

Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming

Assessing the role of anthropogenic warming from temporally inhomogeneous historical data in the presence of large natural variability is difficult and has caused conflicting conclusions on detection and attribution of tropical cyclone (TC) trends. Here, using a reconstructed long-term proxy of annual TC numbers together with high-resolution climate model experiments, we show robust declining trends in the annual number of TCs at global and regional scales during the twentieth century. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset is used for reconstruction because, compared with other reanalyses, it assimilates only sea-level pressure fields rather than utilize all available observations in the troposphere, making it less sensitive to temporal inhomogeneities in the observations. It can also capture TC signatures from the pre-satellite era reasonably well. The declining trends found are consistent with the twentieth century weakening of the Hadley and Walker circulations, which make conditions for TC formation less favourable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increasing sequential tropical cyclone hazards along the US East and Gulf coasts

Two tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall close together can induce sequential hazards to coastal areas. Here we investigate the change in sequential TC hazards in the historical and future projected climates. We find that the chance of sequential TC hazards has been increasing over the past several decades at many US locations. Under the high (moderate) emission scenario, the chance of hazards from two TCs impacting the same location within 15 days may substantially increase, with the return period decreasing over the century from 10–92 years to ~1–2 (1–3) years along the US East and Gulf coasts, due to sea-level rise and storm climatology change. Climate change can also cause unprecedented compounding of extreme hazards at the regional level. A Katrina-like TC and a Harvey-like TC impacting the United States within 15 days of each other, which is non-existent in the control simulation for over 1,000 years, is projected to have an annual occurrence probability of more than 1% by the end of the century under the high emission scenario.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic soil columns simulate Arctic redox biogeochemistry and carbon release during changes in water saturation

Thawing Arctic permafrost can induce hydrologic change and alter redox conditions, shifting the balance of soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition. There remains uncertainty about how soil saturation and redox transitions impact dissolved and gas phase carbon fluxes, and efforts to link hydrobiogeochemical processes to ecosystem-scale models are limited. This study evaluates SOM decomposition of Arctic tundra soils using column experiments, water chemistry measurements, microbial community analysis, and a PFLOTRAN reactive transport model. Soil columns from a thermokarst channel (TC) and an upland tundra (UC) were exposed to cycles of saturation and drainage, which controlled carbon emissions. During saturation, an outflow of dissolved organic carbon from the UC soil correlated with elevated reduced iron and decreased pH; during drainage, UC carbon dioxide fluxes were 70% higher than TC fluxes. Intermittent methane release was observed for TC, consistent with higher methanogen abundance. Slower drainage in the TC soil correlated with more subtle biogeochemical changes. PFLOTRAN simulations captured experimental trends in soil carbon fluxes, oxygen concentrations, and water contents. The model was then used to evaluate additional soil water drainage rates. This study emphasizes the importance of considering hydrologic change when evaluating and simulating SOM decomposition in dynamic Arctic tundra environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Magnetic ac susceptibility of superconducting Ta films for quantum computing

Recently, breakthroughs were reported in the long coherence time (>0.5 ms) transmon qubit using tantalum films (Ta). Identifying the loss mechanism in Ta films will help further improve the performance of Ta-based superconducting qubits. We report a study of superconducting properties in two sets of Ta films grown on c-cut and a-cut sapphires respectively using contact transport and noncontact magnetic ac susceptibility measurements. Although the resistive transition appears to be similar in both films, we found strikingly different responses in their complex magnetic susceptibilities χ' + iχ'$^{'}$ .χ'$^{'}$ in the c-cut films exhibits a sharp peak at superconducting transition Tc and becomes featureless below Tc indicating a strongly coupled superconducting state. In contrast, χ'$^{'}$ \ in the a-cut films exhibits a broad peak near Tc and a second peak appears below Tc, indicating granular superconductivity behavior. This second peak χ'$^{'}$ in is associated with the hysteresis loss at weak-link-type grain boundaries, which is believed to be a leading source of decoherence in the a-cut Ta films. The derived magnetic loss tangent in the a-cut films is about one order of magnitude higher than in the c-cut films. This study demonstrates that ac susceptibility is an excellent probe for characterizing bulk superconducting properties of the constituent superconducting materials used in qubits.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Transport and confinement physics: Chapter 2 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

Progress in physics understanding and theoretical model development of plasma transport and confinement (TC) in the ITPA TC Topical Group since the publication of the ITER Physics Basis (IPB) document (Doyle et al 2007 Nucl. Fusion 47 S18) was summarized focusing on the contributions to ITER and burning plasma prediction and control. This paper provides a general and streamlined overview on the advances that were mainly led by the ITPA TC joint experiments and joint activities for the last 15 years (see JEX/JA table in appendix). This paper starts with the scientific strategy and scope of the ITPA TC Topical group and overall picture of the major progress, followed by the progress of each research field: particle transport, impurity transport, ion and electron thermal turbulent transport, momentum transport, impact of 3D magnetic fields on transport, confinement mode transitions, global confinement, and reduced transport modeling. Cross references with other Topical Groups are given in order to highlight overlapped topics, such as the 3D effect on the plasma transport in the edge and L-H transition physics. The increasing overlap between the topical groups is a reflection of the progress on integrating the known physics into comprehensive models that are better and better able to reproduce the plasma transport. In recent years, such integration has become increasingly prevalent when considering transport from the SOL, through the edge pedestal, and into the plasma core. In the near future, increased collaboration also with the magneto-hydrodynamic and energetic particles community will be important as we approach burning plasma conditions in next-step fusion devices. A summary of remaining challenges and next steps for each research field is given in the Summary section.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ion beam irradiation of ABO4 compounds with the fergusonite, monazite, scheelite, and zircon structures

The effects of irradiation on CaWO4, SrWO4, BaWO4, YVO4, LaVO4, YNbO4, and LaNbO4 were investigated on thin crystals using 1.0 MeV Kr ions at 50-1000 K. All of the ABO4 compounds can be amorphized with calculated damage cross sections (σa = 1/Fc0) in the range of ~0.30-1.09 × 10-14 cm2 ion-1 at zero Kelvin. The analysis of fluence-temperature data returned critical temperatures for amorphization (Tc) of 311 ± 1, 358 ± 90, 325 ± 19, 415 ± 17, 541 ± 6, 636 ± 26, and 1012 ± 1 K, respectively, for the compounds listed above. Compared with previous in situ irradiation of ABO4 orthophosphate samples using 0.8 MeV Kr ions, the Tc values of LaVO4 and YVO4 are higher than those of LaPO4 and YPO4 by 82 K and 124 K, respectively. The Tc values of the three scheelite structures, CaWO4, SrWO4, and BaWO4, indicate that they are the most radiation tolerant compounds under these conditions. The A-B cation anti-site energies, EfAB, determined by DFT range from 2.48 to 10.58 eV and are highly correlated with the A-B cation ionic radius ratio, rA/rB, but are not correlated with Tc across the different structure types, suggesting that the formation and migration energies of Frenkel defects play a more important role in damage recovery in these compounds. We also discuss the role of cation and anion charge/iconicity as determined by DFT. ABO4 compounds with the zircon structure and B = P or V have a distinct advantage over those with B = Si as the damaged regions do not appear to be significantly affected by polymerization of (PO4) 3- or (VO4) 3- groups which might stabilize the amorphous fraction and ultimately lead to phase separation as observed in zircon (ZrSiO4).

amorphization↗
DOE OSTI2021

Metrics for evaluating tropical cyclones in climate data

This manuscript describes a software suite that can be used for objective evaluation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in gridded climate data. Using cyclone trajectories derived from 6-hourly data, a comprehensive set of metrics is defined to systematically compare and contrast products to one another. In addition to annual TC climatologies, attention is paid to spatial and temporal patterns of storm occurrence and intensity. Assessment can be performed either on the global scale or regional domains. Simple to visualize ‘scorecards’ allow for rapid credibility assessment. We showcase three key findings enabled by this suite. First, we compare the representation of TCs in seven current-generation global reanalyses and conclude that higher resolution models and those with TC-specific assimilation contain more accurate storm climatologies. Second, using a free-running Earth system model (ESM) we find that full basin refinement is required in variable-resolution configurations to adequately simulate North Atlantic TC frequency. Furthermore, upstream refinement over northern Africa offers little benefit in simulating storm occurrence but spatial genesis patterns are improved. Finally, we show that TCs simulated by ESMs can be highly sensitive to individual parameterizations in climate models, with North Atlantic TC metrics varying greatly depending on version of the Morrison-Gettelman microphysics package.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing Tropical Cyclones’ Contribution to Precipitation over the Eastern United States and Sensitivity to the Variable-Resolution Domain Extent

Tropical cyclones (TCs) can subject an area to heavy precipitation for many hours, or even days, worsening the risk of flooding, which creates dangerous conditions for residents of the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts. To study the representation of TC-related precipitation over the eastern United States in current-generation global climate models, a novel analysis methodology is developed to track TCs and extract their associated precipitation using an estimate of their dynamical outer size. This methodology is applied to three variable-resolution (VR) configurations of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), with high-resolution domains over the North Atlantic and one low-resolution conventional configuration, as well as to a combination of reanalysis and observational precipitation data. Metrics and diagnostics such as TC counts, intensities, outer storm sizes, and annual mean total and extreme precipitation are compared between the CAM5 simulations and reanalysis/observations. The high-resolution VR configurations outperform the global low-resolution configuration for all variables in the North Atlantic. Realistic TC intensities are produced by the VR configurations. The total North Atlantic TC counts are lower than observations but better than reanalysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Autoencoder Neural Network for chemically reacting systems

Incorporating detailed chemical kinetic models is critical for accurate simulations of reacting flows. However, detailed models involve a large number of thermochemical (TC) state variables. Solving the governing equations to evolve these TC variables becomes impractical for real-world applications. In this work, we propose an autoencoder (AE) neural network (NN)-based reduced model to accelerate such simulations. The AE NN is first trained to find a low-dimensional latent representation of the TC states. Then, the evolving state of a chemical system can be tracked by solving the equations of the latent variables instead of the original TC equations. We demonstrate the reduced model in a syngas CO/H 2 combustion system, using training data collected from canonical perfectly stirred reactors (PSRs). It is found that the AE model can reduce the dimension of the combustion system from 12 to 2 while maintaining low reconstruction error and excellent elemental mass conservation for the test dataset. In the a posteriori test, the combustion states obtained from solving the two latent equations are compared to those from solving the 12 equations of the full model. The AE reduced method is found to be able to capture the diverse combustion states on the top two branches of the S-curve well including the extinction turning point, but with higher prediction errors for states near the ignition turning point.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nb₃Sn Coating of a 2.6 GHz SRF Cavity by Sputter Deposition Technique

Nb₃Sn is of interest as a coating for SRF cavities due to its higher transition temperature Tc ~18.3 K and superheating field Hsh ~400 mT, both are twice that of Nb. Nb₃Sn coated cavities can achieve high-quality factors at 4 K and can replace the bulk Nb cavities operated at 2 K. A cylindrical magnetron sputtering system was built, commissioned, and used to deposit Nb₃Sn on the inner surface of a 2.6 GHz single-cell Nb cavity. With two identical cylindrical magnetrons, this system can coat a cavity with high symmetry and uniform thickness. Using Nb-Sn multilayer sequential sputtering followed by annealing at 950°C for 3 hours, polycrystalline Nb₃Sn films were first deposited at the equivalent positions of the cavity’s beam tubes and equator. The film’s composition, crystal structure, and morphology were characterized by energy dispersive spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, and atomic force microscopy. The Tc of the films was measured by the four-point probe method and was 17.61 to 17.76 K. Based on these studies, ~1.2 micron thick Nb₃Sn was deposited inside a 2.6 GHz Nb cavity. We will discuss first results from samples and cavity coatings, and the status of the coating system.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sputter coating of Nb₃Sn into SRF cavity using stoichiometric target

Nb₃Sn has emerged as a leading alternative material due to its higher superconducting critical temperature (Tc) and superheating field (Hsh), promising a viable solution to the intrinsic performance limit currently faced by Nb superconducting radiofrequency (SRF) cavities. We sputter-coated Nb₃Sn inside Nb SRF cavity using a stoichiometric Nb₃Sn tube target in a DC cylindrical magnetron sputter coater. The target was fabricated by growing an estimated >20 μm thick Nb₃Sn layer on a Nb tube via Sn vapor diffusion using Jefferson Lab’s coating system. Approximately 150 nm thick Nb-Sn films were sputter-deposited onto flat Nb samples at positions representing the beam tubes and equator of a 2.6 GHz Nb cavity. Post-deposition annealing at 950 °C for 3 h resulted in the formation of Nb₃Sn. Microstructural analysis of the annealed films was carried out to investigate the morphology and structure of the Nb₃Sn films. Later, a 2.6 GHz Nb SRF cavity was coated with a ~1.2 μm thick sputtered Nb-Sn film using a stoichiometric Nb₃Sn target, followed by annealing. Cryogenic RF testing of the annealed cavity demonstrated a Tc of 17.8 K, indicating the formation of Nb₃Sn. After a light Sn recoating treatment, the cavity achieved a quality factor (Q0) of 6.7E+08 at lower field at 2.0 K.

Accelerator Physics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating the Anomalous Frequency Variations Near $T_c$ of Nb SRF Cavities

We report recent studies on the anomalous frequency variations of 1.3 GHz Nb SRF cavities near the transition temperature Tc and use them to investigate the underlying physics of state-of-the-art surface treatments. One such feature, a dip in frequency, correlates directly with the quality factor at 16 MV/m and the anti-Q slope that arise in cavities with dilute concentrations of N interstitial in the RF layer achieved via N-doping and mid temperature baking. For N interstitial, we find that the dip magnitude and Tc follow exponential relationships with the electronic mean free path. We present the first observation of the frequency dip near Tc in a cavity baked at 200 C in-situ for 11 hours, which is concurrent with the anti-Q slope, and may be driven by oxygen diffused from the native oxide, thus suggesting the possibility of ‘‘O-doping.’’ We also investigate the conductivities of two cavities that display different resonant frequency behaviors near Tc and suggest that the anti-Q slope and frequency dip phenomena may occur in the presence of interstitial N or possibly O that inhibit the formation of proximity coupled Nb nano-hydrides.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cylindrical Magnetron Development for Nb3sn Deposition via Magnetron Sputtering

Due to its better superconducting properties (critical temperature Tc~ 18.3 K, superheating field Hsh~ 400 mT), Nb₃Sn is considered as a potential alternative to niobium (Tc~ 9.25 K, Hsh~ 200 mT) for superconducting radiofrequency (SRF) cavities for particle acceleration. Magnetron sputtering is an effective method to produce superconducting Nb₃Sn films. We deposited superconducting Nb₃Sn films on samples with magnetron sputtering using co-sputtering, sequential sputtering, and sputtering from a stoichiometric target. Nb₃Sn films produced by magnetron sputtering in our previous experiments have achieved DC superconducting critical temperature up to 17.93 K and RF superconducting transition at 17.2 K. A magnetron sputtering system with two identical cylindrical cathodes that can be used to sputter Nb₃Sn films on cavities has been designed and is under development now. We report on the design and the current progress on the development of the system.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vitrification of Hanford Tank 241-AP-101 Waste and Simulant

Hanford tank 241-AP-101 (referred to herein as AP-101) is the second Hanford radioactive tank waste planned to be processed and vitrified. A simulant version of AP 101 waste was formulated from the best-basis inventory (BBI) for the Hanford Tank 241-AP-101 liquid with an assumed target dilution of the waste from the BBI sodium molarity of 8.61 M to the desired 5.5 M Na. After the addition of glass-forming chemicals (GFCs), the simulant melter feed was processed in a non-radioactive, continuous laboratory-scale melter (CLSM) system. The AP-101 simulant melter feed was charged into the CLSM for 6.11 h of processing, which produced 6.55 kg of glass, for an average glass production rate of 2275 kg m 2 d -1 . Since there were no processing issues with the AP-101 simulant melter feed, AP-101 melter feed made with actual waste was then processed in a CLSM system built into a contamination area in a radioactive environment. The melting behavior characteristics appeared similar for both the simulant and waste melter feeds. The AP-101 waste melter feed was charged into the CLSM for 12.14 h of processing, which produced 8.75 kg of glass, for an average glass production rate of 1530 kg m 2 d -1 . During the AP-101 waste melter feed charging, the pump used to move the feed reached a maximum and it is believed that if the pump had a greater capacity, a greater average glass production rate could have been achieved. A constituent of interest present in low quantities in the AP-101 waste is 99 Tc or its non-radioactive surrogate, Re, added to the AP-101 simulant. Analysis for the quantities of 99 Tc and Re in the AP-101 glass product resulted in an average single-pass retention from the melter feed during relative chemical steady state of 55 ± 2 % for 99 Tc and 45 ± 2 % for Re. Compared to the processing of other melter feeds, the retention of 99 Tc in the AP-101 glass was greater than in both AP-107 and AP-105 glass, while the retention of Re in the AP-101 was less than in the AP-107 glass, but greater than in the AP-105 glass. A spike of I was added into the AP-101 melter feed that could be detected above the analysis detection limits. However, the iodine was only detectable above the ~6 ppm limit in one glass pour: the pour immediately following the burn off of the cold cap, where the I level reached ~30 ppm. This event was significant because the glass was poured immediately after burn off and thus it is presumed that the iodine had yet to volatilize from the glass melt while idling. It is recommended to perform future tests with I spikes at greater levels so that it can be detected in additional glass pours to determine if the expected 50 % retention of I used in the Kim et al. glass models can be confirmed. Offgas liquid samples were analyzed for acetonitrile, which was present at greater concentrations in CLSM liquids than in other scaled melter systems. This result was expected based on unique conditions with the CLSM system including a small plenum space leading to low residence time for offgas and the rapidity of offgas cooling upon exiting the CLSM vessel due to the location and environment. About 90 % of the total acetonitrile captured during both the AP-101 simulant and waste CLSM runs was found in the offgas condensate and demister liquids, thus it is recommended that only those liquids be sent for analysis if future testing to study the presence of acetonitrile in offgas products is desired.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty in Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Hazard and Risk Estimates: Insights from RAFT, CHAZ, MIT, STORM, and CLIMADA

We synthesize five complementary tropical cyclone (TC) hazard frameworks—RAFT (physics-based machine learning), CHAZ and MIT (statistical–dynamical), STORM (fully statistical), and CLIMADA (observation-driven resampling)—to characterize uncertainty in wind-related TC metrics relevant to energy applications. All datasets and the IBTrACS observational record are harmonized to a common 6-hourly, 2.5° grid. We compare basin-wide and coastal properties using consistent definitions for TC frequency, mean and maximum intensity, 24-hour intensification, and 6-hour translation speed, and quantify agreement with Pearson r, RMSE, and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) alongside resampling-based confidence intervals. CLIMADA is included for basin context but excluded from coastal skill scoring because it resamples historical IBTrACS; if supplied with projected future tracks from an external hazard model, CLIMADA can be used to simulate future TC scenarios. Results show robust, cross-model signals: (i) a corridor of activity from the tropical Atlantic through the Caribbean into the Bahamas and western subtropical Atlantic; (ii) a meridional dipole in 24-hour intensification (low-latitude strengthening, subtropical weakening); and (iii) a transition from slower tropical motion to faster midlatitude translation. Coastal winds (mean and maximum) consistently cluster from the eastern Gulf into the Bahamas–western Atlantic transition. The largest structural spread occurs in the amplitude and footprint of lifetime maximum intensity and, secondarily, in translation speed; intensification exhibits similar central behavior across frameworks with variability in extremes. Translation speed shows the most uniform coastal agreement. These findings provide a decision envelope for wind-focused risk screening and clarify where uncertainty should be carried forward; wind-only results represent a lower bound on total hazard, motivating integration of surge and rainfall modules and a companion, asset-level damage analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗